Category: Current Events

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 3Mar20

Yes, it is still spreading. Yes, the President is considering further travel restrictions. No, there is still no reason to panic. Lots of reasons to pay attention and make rational and reasonable preparations, but no need to panic.

First, read this article in the NEJM about our response to the outbreak. A good bit of solid info, from one of the prime leaders in the fight, though one might wish for just a bit more meat on the response part. Then read this post and this post from some people who’s opinion is shaped by their expertise, and keep that in mind when listening to/reading politicians in government and the media (yes, I agree with Instapundit that the vast majority of “journalists”/media are Democratic operatives with bylines/chyrons). Alas, Dr. Carson hits it on the head. Politics and political gain (and personal) are far more important than the health and safety of the Citizens of the Republic, or the Republic itself.

The CDC continues to cover itself in glory. One reason things got so bad so fast in China (and Iran, and similar countries) is that bureaucracies in highly socialist countries are not adaptive. For that matter, bureaucracies anywhere have a track record on adaptability that make the wooly mammoth and the dodo seem like jet racers.

In America, the problem is not going to be the number of deaths. Here’s where the real crunch lies for all. And, here’s a post that makes good points (already pointed out in several previous posts) on why things are likely to be different here in terms of severity, mortality, etc. Never mind cleaner air, differences in smoking rates, etc.

Also, two interesting things to be thinking about. First, has Sen. Chris Murphy carried COVID-19 into the Senate (and all those closed sessions with members of his party)? A bit alarmist, but an interesting question. Sadly, this next has been building for a few weeks now — China has been testing the idea of blaming the U.S. for the virus. PJ Media and Claudia Rosett are on top of it. I will note that if Xi and others think this will fly internally or externally (except with idiots and those paid to promote it), they really have underestimated how much their control has slipped.

More to come, I’m sure.

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

It’s a fair question. What am I doing? Am I following the guidelines I’m giving you?

Short answer is yes, I am following those guidelines for the most part. Some minor tweeks for my particular circumstances, but yes.

First up, I travel for work on a daily basis. Some is in state, other involves out-of-state travel. No, I’m not wearing a mask or suit. Sadly, telecommuting is not an option. Also, no work no pay, so…

What I am doing is what I recommend. I wash my hands as often as I can, particularly if I’ve had to handle things touched by others, used the bathroom (every time! everyone should), or had contact with others. I’ve stopped shaking hands, citing the flu season. I also have two travel-sized bottles of hand sanitizer that I use frequently since they can be refilled from larger containers, and use it frequently. I avoid getting near anyone that appears sick. I am washing my coat, vest, other winter gear at least once a week and may step up to twice a week. I have rinsed my toothbrush in alcohol for years, and am cleaning as I can.

You never will get things perfectly sterile. It’s not about killing every last flu/other bug: it’s about killing enough of them that enough of them to make you sick make it into your system. Some get in, but not enough. It’s breaking the chain of the infection by keeping the numbers low.

I’m doing what I can on the financial front. On the food and water front, I have increased my normal reserves of water, coffee, and food. I believe strongly in survival with style, so am working to cook and freeze as many tasty complete meals as circumstances allow. I’m stocking in some not-quite-as-tasty things (canned meats/meals) as well, since freezer space is limited. Upping the coffee, spice, and booze reserves as I can as well. I also need to do more on the tobacco front, but food (obviously) comes first (followed by coffee).

Yes, I may buy a half-face respirator again soon. Not so much for this, but because the one I bought about 15 years ago for wood/metal/not-nice-materials projects is no longer supported. As in you can’t get new cartridges anywhere. Annoying, but it did have a good run. Grumble. There are a few projects I might like to do if I have to be home that would need one.

Yes, I do have a few R95 (and a well put up pack of N95) masks around. Again, projects and yard work. the R95 is a good one to keep around for projects, yard work, allergies, and potential emergency use. I do recommend them over the N95. If I absolutely need them, I do have them but don’t anticipate using them at this time.

That’s the short and sweet of it for now. We will see if it is enough.

COVID-19 2Mar20

Not a lot of time this morning, will see what I can do this afternoon or for tomorrow. Yes, more cases and one more death here. As before, if this is not contained it will be because of the bureaucracy, case in point is this lab at the CDC. Also, the CDC still won’t allow the use of a proven and more efficient test because that system has not been through the full FDA approval process, which can take years. Both the CDC and the FDA have needed serious overhaul for a couple of decades now, mayhaps that will happen now.

If you are a first responder, particularly one on the West Coast but anywhere, go to as high a level of protocols as your department will allow. Why? Here’s why (and one wonders about the Washington State public health organization’s competence).

For the rest of us, the best defense is to wash your hands and go to strict flu protocol.

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

We’ve had our first death from COVID-19. We will have more. Will we have anything like the deaths in China, Iran, and elsewhere? Not unless the bureaucracy fucks up by the numbers. There is also the possibility of an outbreak at a facility that cares for the elderly and/or vulnerable patients. Note: possibility, not confirmed.

While I don’t trust any data from China at all, here is some interesting data on deaths by age and deaths by those with pre-existing conditions. Hat tip to Instapundit for some of these links. Also, Business Insider has a good listing of all articles about coronavirus/COVID-19.

Right now, we just don’t have enough good, solid, transparent data. By six weeks from now, we will. Until then, don’t panic, stay alert, and be prepared.

Meantime, some interesting speculations from the Blueberry Town about what is going to happen. I agree with 2, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15. You may note that some of those echo what I’ve said before. 1 and 16 are indeed possibilities.

In another hat tip to Insty, the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) has a strong editorial up about those playing politics with the virus. Remember, they do want you dead, especially if it helps them keep/regain power.

Keep in mind that the media is not to be trusted to give you real news about what is going on. Don’t even bother to trust, just verify.

For now, I maintain that your first priority should be to be as financially prepared as you can be. Second is to have food, medicines, OTCs, supplements, etc. to ride out 14-30 days of quarantine. Getting masks shouldn’t be where you spend money for now. Or paper suits, exposure suits, moon suits, MOPP gear, etc.

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 29Feb20

Not going to get too far into things this morning, but do want to say the following:

The BEST way to avoid getting it is to wash you hands frequently and well. Use hand sanitizer between washings, and disinfect the things you use or touch regularly including your cell phone, remotes, computer keyboards, etc. In other words, flu or strict flu protocols are the best defense for now.

Two, if you work with one of those “I’ve never taken a sick day/yes I’m sick but I’m coming in anyway types” send them home (if you are a boss), and if you work with them a sock party is warranted. Stay away from them and treat them as a pariah. Guarantee you they have cost more productivity than they have ever saved by coming in sick.

Three, anyone who tells you it’s just the flu is a complete and total (expletive) idiot. Anyone who tells you it is Capt. Tripps, is a complete and total (expletive) idiot. No difference between them, and both are just as bad.

Again, there is no need to panic. There is a need to be informed (which means not going to major media for info, go to specialized pubs/experts), be alert, and be prepared. Be prepared financially and practically for a possible quarantine in your area. You don’t need a ton of masks (unless you are sick or are a first responder/medical professional dealing with and treating infected patients), so put your money elsewhere for now. What you do need is hand sanitizer, soap, food for an extended vacation at home, and other practical things so that you are not a drain on society.

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Given the idiots out there, as well as those who will deliberately try to mis-represent my thoughts (Outrage! Cancel! No Grace For You!), let me add the following thoughts and suggestions for consideration.

First, there are some very good and talented people that work for the CDC, HHS, etc. If they are allowed to truly do their jobs, they are going to break the back of this thing.

But, they also work for a political, not a medical, organization. Which means they have a political administration for most of whom the first thought on response will be politics. They also have a lot of deadwood supporting that administration. These are the type who hang up when someone protests an idiotic decision, and who make that decision because that’s the way it was last month.

Since pour encourager les autres is not going to be an option (hyperbole people, hyperbole), such deadwood (management and staff) needs to be publicly named and shamed and find themselves on a permanent unpaid leave as soon as discovered (since firing takes a lot of time and effort). Find someone playing politics on the job? Out the door. Doesn’t matter the level, boot them. Immediately and publicly.

Anyone who impedes the response to this, or any other epidemic, through incompetence or deliberate malice (and that is what it is), needs to go immediately and with fanfare. It’s also well past time to prune the CDC back to it’s job, so that is lean, mean, and responsive.

Just my thoughts.

Panic Is Off And Running

As I noted on MeWe yesterday, the panic is off and running. I stopped by my local Lowe’s yesterday, and was unsurprised on many levels to find out that a small number of people had come in and stripped them of very N95 and R95 mask in stock. I was a bit surprised that they still had respirators left.

Yes, I have a mask or two. But, as I’ve noted before, more masks are the lowest item on my preparations list. For most of us, they don’t make much sense at this time.

If you want to minimize your risk of getting COVID-19, use strong flu protocols. The biggest thing is to wash your hands frequently, follow with sanitizer; and, sanitize your hands on a regular basis between washings. If you use the bathroom, WASH YOUR FLIPPIN HANDS! Good hygiene and strong flu protocols are, for now, the best bet.

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

Yesterday, I wrote that I was fairly happy with what I had heard of the press conference and the steps that have been taken by President Trump. I stand by that, and in fact will double down on it. I think that if we get through this in good shape, that it will be because of the steps taken by him, by Vice President Pence, by Alex Azar, and others in that team. They, along with a robust public hygiene system and fairly decent personal hygiene, are my hope. My fear is the bureaucracy, as it has already botched things in other countries. In this case, my fears are compounded by the incest and corruption in our own bureaucracy.

Since some seem determined to spread fear and panic, let’s start there. In fact, let’s start with the CDC refusing initially to test the positive case in California because it didn’t meet bureaucratic criteria that was already set in stone. This led, in turn, to a press conference by Nancy Messonnier at the CDC which led to a lot of fear and even panic. There was, at the time, also a strong media push to note that she was not part of the White House response.

Well, there might be a reason for that. One of which is that she is Rod Rosenstein’s sister. If you don’t know who he is, shame on you. Look it up and write his name 50 times on the blackboard. When I say the swamp that is our bureaucracy is incestuous, this is what I mean. I also agree very much with Trent Telenko’s take:

“In hind sight the gloom and doom CDC newsconference Tuesday by Doctor Nancy Messonnier, the Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease in the CDC seems to be an attempt to distract the public from the CDC’s role in delaying this identification of community spread in California with the uber-flawed CDC testing program and guidelines.“

I would also commend his article as he also notes the CDC is not allowing better testing being used elsewhere because those tests have not been through the full FDA approval. Again, the bureaucracy is our greatest enemy, not coronavirus. Bureaucratium and Administratium are two of the densest materials in the known universe, and if our efforts fail, it will fail because of them.

For all that St. Rod has lit the virtue signal and flounced to the holy fainting couch (his symbol) over Trump (won’t someone note my piety!), he notes that there may be another case almost identical to the refusal to test the patient in California. If so, this needs to be gotten to the White House asap. If you have a patient you think is infected and you get stonewalled, go public and go large. Call the White House (switchboard number is readily available) and leave a message; tweet at Trump, Pence, Azar, etc.; call the media, and they are going to be appreciative as it gives them a chance to go after Trump and create a panic. Just make sure to get the names of the people at the CDC and give them out too. Name and shame, and hold them accountable. Not joking. If this complaint is true, hope someone does here too.

As I’ve noted a time or two before, the CDC is first and foremost a political agency, not a medical. The abandoned that role a few decades ago as they sought to increase their budget and their reach, as such is the way one moves up in the entrenched DC elite. Glenn Reynolds took them to task in 2014, and it is even more relevant today.

So, my greatest fear in the fight is our bureaucracy. So what’s my greatest hope? That comes in two parts.

The first part is that we have a robust and modern public hygiene system. This includes modern and effective (for the most part) sewage transport and treatment. We also have a different cultural “look” at personal hygiene. Both of these are important, as they limit the spread of not just COVID-19, but a number of other diseases. Not eliminate, but limit — often to very small amounts not seen before in human history.

The second part is that the team announced by Trump is solid, and rather pointedly excludes swamp dwellers. Don’t take my word for it, take a look at what a biochemist has to say about that team.

More to come, but that’s some good food for thought to start your day. Meantime, note those who are politicizing this event, from pundits to politicians. They deserve your contempt, your opprobrium, and to be shunned in all things by all good people.

As always:

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Not Yet Is there need for panic? No. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles: