Category: Current Events

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

https://61a6a0fd9b4012f13ba5706c.bcvp0rtal.com/detail/videos/agday-minute/video/6309493888112/agday-minute-071322

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

Hmmmm Follow-Up

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Food crisis: Big statements in small articles

Italy is losing about 1/3 of its rice and corn crops to the heat.

We planted corn late, and now this heat wave, with high nighttime temperatures, is hitting the Western Corn Belt very hard at an inopportune time. AccuWeather is predicting a greater weather hit to corn than the USDA is.

Dryland corn in my area is just about toast. Irrigated doesn’t look good, pivots can’t keep up and flood won’t go through. Next 10 days of 100° plus and no rain. Worst year I’ve ever seen for moisture and heat. Started feeding my cattle this week, never done that in July before.
David, commenter on AgWeb’s AccuWeather article

If this is true about Germany harvesting corn for silage (i.e., not for corn), that’s a problem.

In Germany this week some farmers will start to harvest their one meter high maize for silage due to drought.
Guess we will see more of this weird scenario in August because there will be dying a lot of corn in the next 14d
— BooBoo (@BooBoo_grains) July 18, 2022

This 7:08 video might give a sense of how normal economic processes aren’t quite making sense. I think that’s because of the conflict between fundamentals and technical trading. For instance, it’s strange to see such high prices for farming inputs without seeing an equivalent increase in prices for outputs. The long-term implications here are uncertain, but they might include an increase in farm bankruptcies or people getting out of the field: If you can’t sell your goods at a profit, you won’t stay in business long.

We kinda needed a good harvest. It looks like we’re not getting a good harvest.

My usual caveat applies: There’s a lot I don’t know. If you think I’m missing mitigating factors, please talk about it in the comments.

An additional caveat: Note that a lot of the most doom-and-gloom articles at AgWeb are written by Tyne Morgan. That could mean he’s the one paying attention, or it could mean that he’s a clickbait artist. I lean toward the former, because there’s verifiable data in his articles. Other articles are less doom-and-gloom, like this one — but even that one embeds a video that backs up everything Morgan says. Having said that, I notice that his articles sometimes repeat predictions from weeks before without saying whether or not those predictions came true. Caveat lector, and don’t trust anyone, even me.

Food crisis update

I’ve been saying that the US won’t see starvation, but we’d see prices even higher than we’ve currently got. I continue to think that’s true.

The futures markets for grain and other commodities are taking a beating because of inflationary news, which means companies are betting that the price of grain will go down in the future. But I think they’re basing their belief about decreasing grain prices on things like the recession, inflationary fears, and so on, rather than on what’s really going on in the grain fields. The fundamentals in agriculture continue to be pretty bad, by which I mean that (I believe) that the causes of high prices are still in place, and there’s nothing about the crops themselves that should lead anyone to believe that the prices will go down significantly.

Not all the news is bad, mind you — some signs show that corn and soybeans are going to be better than they could be, and I haven’t heard as much about poultry loss from avian flu recently — but we continue to have serious long-term issues because of drought.

There’s a massive cattle sell-off in Texas right now because of drought, which has caused a shortage of hay and water. 4x the normal number of cattle are currently being sold. Maybe that’ll mean there’s beef at better prices for a little while, maybe not, but it sure means that there will be higher prices in the future. Buy beef and freeze it.

The US drought’s already bad and is getting worse. See this video:

…and the first chunk of this video:

This coincides with this discussion from last week.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/half-us-corn-crop-was-planted-two-weeks-now-10-day-forecast-shows-signs

Now skip to ~5:40 in that second video to hear about Ukrainian farmers having to sell their grain below cost, with government officials saying, “Without opening the Black Sea ports, I don’t see any solution for Ukrainian farmers to survive. And if they don’t survive, we won’t be able to feed African countries.” There was some possible movement on that yesterday, but none of it involves Russia, which is kind of a big deal. Look for more information on that next week.

Back to the US: Feed shortages are already a concern, and a rail strike may make it worse.

https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/politics/could-rail-workers-now-strike-starting-monday-concerns-feed-shortage-continue

With massive inflation and looming food shortages, I still recommend buying and storing pasta, and now I’ll add that you might want to buy and freeze meat. Meat was always going to go up higher because the cost of grain will reduce meat production overall: It would be good to get more on hand before prices go up, especially if there’s a little dip before that rise starts.

When The Story Begs Serious Questions

Recently, the story of a 10-year-old rape victim having to travel to Indiana to get an abortion because of Ohio law swept unquestioningly across the media landscape, and into the mouths of politicians like the demented meat puppet at 1600 Penn. The problem with that was, there were and are a lot of holes in that story. Massive holes that beg both ethical and legal questions.

The first reporter to raise questions was Megan Fox at PJ Media. Her first column on the story raised a number of important red flags, and a host of questions which have yet to be answered by the Indianapolis Star, the doctor quoted in their story, or a number of other people and/or organizations.

Sadly, far from being a hoax, an illegal alien has been arrested and charged with the rape of the girl. I really do wish it had been a hoax, rather than being true and a child having their childhood destroyed. I pray for her and I hope that she gets some great counseling so as to avoid the many problems that come from childhood rape.

Yet, those troublesome questions remain unanswered. Indeed, they stand in sharper focus as we start to learn more. Let’s run down a few of them.

First, why did a report filed on 22 June with child services not make it to the police, and an arrest made, until 12 or 13 JULY? Why did the attorney general of Ohio and his office not know about it until then? Why did the Columbus police deny any investigation until yesterday?

Second, why was no apparent effort made to obtain an abortion in Ohio? Per the attorney general, the girl qualified if for no other reason than a 10-year-old’s body is not yet ready to give birth even if she had entered puberty. As with the question on why the report was not shared in a timely manner, what efforts if any were made to obtain medical care for the rape victim in Ohio? If they were denied, who denied them and when? Were any reports required of mandatory reporters filed at all by anyone? Who was the alleged “child abuse doctor” and did they file the mandatory paperwork? More importantly, did they make any effort to obtain care in Ohio and if not, why did they instead enlist the aid of a noted abortion activist physician here in Indiana?

Third, given that the procedure was done here in Indiana by the abortion activist doctor, did she at any point file the required reports? Did she have permission to discuss the case with the media or did she violate HIPPA and risk additional trauma to a young rape victim simply for political points? Did she discuss the story or her part in it with her employer or anyone else before going public with the patient’s information? At least, according to the court testimony yesterday, she did keep tissue from the abortion for DNA and/or other analysis.

Fourth, there are a series of questions for the IndyStar. First, in a story relying on a single source, how did they vet what they were being told? What steps, if any, did they take to verify the material, and to verify that the legal rights of the minor rape victim were being protected? Did they at any time seek a legal opinion on the article, and if not, why not? On a story like this, it’s not unusual to seek such an opinion given that it can open the newspaper up to lawsuits and/or prosecution. Was anyone at the IndyStar aware that the source was violating HIPPA and other regulations? Did anyone at the IndyStar question why the rape victim was not treated in Ohio and question the so-called “child abuse doctor” about that? Did anyone on staff do any due diligence to ensure that they, and the child victim, were not being used to further a particular pro-abortion political position?

The latter truly is crucial. If this entire chain of events happened, across state lines, to create and/or push a political outcome, that moves into the realm of criminal activity. It would mean the first “doctor” who remains unknown to the public conspired with the doctor here to use the victim for their own political purposes. It is not only unethical, but would also appear to be in violation of a variety of federal and state laws, not to mention simply being utterly and completely despicable.

If the IndyStar had any idea that it was being used as part of such an effort, and failed to perform due diligence and/or willingly participated, there is no First Amendment shield. It’s been a while since my last media law class, but the courts have held that journalistic operations have some “slack” in terms of violating laws in pursuit of the common good. This mostly applies to classified information and attempts by governments at various levels to prevent damaging information from being reported. Where news organizations have violated laws for gain or to push particular agendas, the courts have not been kind. They will have little to no shield from civil or criminal complaints.

For now, all we have are questions and a situation that stinks to high heaven. Until the IndyStar answers questions about basic journalistic fundamentals, much less the more serious questions, it remains highly suspect in the public eye. They need to come clean and operate transparently if they are to maintain any good public perception.

At best, it would appear that the privacy and other rights of a minor rape victim were knowingly and willfully violated by a number of people and/or institutions. At worst, there was a deliberate effort to use and abuse that victim to create a false political narrative for gain. If the latter is true, then all involved should face the maximum legal and social repercussions. If the former, those involved deserve the same. There is no excuse to violate a child like this for personal or political gain, and it is my opinion that is exactly what has happened. Meantime, I can only hope that she is finally getting real care and treatment and that real, honest investigations are made into everyone involved in this story.

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Out!

Out, damned spot! out, I say!–One: two: why, then, ’tis time to do’t.–Hell is murky!–Fie, my lord, fie! a soldier, and afeard? What need we fear who knows it, when none can call our power to account?–Yet who would have thought the children to have had so much blood in them.

No basin, no sink, no river will wash away those spots from all those hands.

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Shinzo Abe

More than almost any other world leader, Shinzo Abe saw what was coming and worked hard to bring the West together to face the authoritarians. He brought those of democratic background together around the world to build the bulkwarks against the coming storm. His not-quite eye roll at Merkel’s bloviating to Trump at a summit remains a treasured moment that can still make me smile and laugh. He will never have the respect in the media of an “austere religious scholar” and I suspect he would me more than okay with that. The timing of his assassination worries me very much, and I am going to be following what come out about his assassin and the motivations/payments/etc. closely. I’m more than a little concerned he was the canary in the coal mine for Asia.

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Hmmmm Follow-Up

Saturday night’s post was short and sweet simply because it happened quickly and there just wasn’t a lot of information. For those that missed it, Vladimir made a fast trip into the Kremlin at 2300 hours (11 pm) Moscow time. Oh, translate the tweet, as it is hilarious. Vladimir going into the Kremlin? Not unusual. Doing so at 2300? Unusual. Very unusual and usually indicates something fairly major has happened. A number of people took notice, including me.

Then, things took a turn for the weird when Kremlin Spox Peskov denied that Vladimir had come in to make a statement. WTF? It’s almost unheard of for a spox to admit that anyone has come into the Kremlin for any reason at any time, just as our spox don’t acknowledge when people go into The Tank, the crisis room, etc. Then, to deny that Vladimir had come in to make a statement is beyond weird.

Now, in the aftermath of this, there was this report of an aircraft making a run north. That particular plane has been used by Gerasimov to get him and his staff places before, and it would appear others have used it as well. Not unusual per se, but at least one observer noted that the last time they saw that plane make that trip, it was when the Moskva was sunk. However, there was no indication of anything of that magnitude happening, and even with the Ukrainians being such shy and retiring types when it comes to their successes surely we would have heard something.

So, welcome to the wonderful world of intel. Something was going on, but so far no rumors out of Moscow as to what was going on. That is a bit unusual as Moscow leaks just as badly as DC, so I really would have expected to hear something by now. Theories do abound, of course. One is that it was a reaction to China upping it’s alert because of a U.S. plane in the straights. Another is that it had something to do with Belarus and Lithuania. Yet another is that it had to do with the debt default that was looming. And, of course, the almost obligatory idea that something had gone wrong internal to Russia. I admit, at the time, I was wondering if the Ukrainians had potted another Russian general.

I’m keeping my ears open, and hope that this is one of those where we do learn fairly soon what was going on. So long as they are not running for the exits, life is good.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

*****

Hmmmm

Not sure what is going on, but something just sent Vladimir into the Kremlin at a good clip. The message with the video is hilarious. May be something, may be nothing. Interesting for sure.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

*****

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Since the last update, the only thing that has changed in terms of Russia/Ukraine is that Russia is pushing hard in more areas in an effort to seize territory and cut off reinforcements from counter-attacking. Of course, that works both ways and the recent deep drone strike(s) by the Ukraine are designed to put the Russians on the defensive. Expect it to get even more brutal and nasty here soon, and for the latest information on the combat check out the OSINT people I link to on Twitter (@laughingwolfone) as a good start.

Not exactly a daring prediction, but expect the Russian push to intensify so that Vladimir can “annex” the most possible territory even if he doesn’t really control it. The announcement of annexation is also likely to declare that any attempt to defend (in areas he doesn’t really control) or to take back what they have seized will be an act of war by Ukraine and NATO.

Yes, I expect Vladimir to expand things as they’ve spent the last 20 or so years preparing the populace for war, even nuclear war, with NATO and the U.S. If you aren’t familiar with some of this, check out Kamil Galeev’s extensive work on this and related subjects.

Right now, Lithuania is pushing as hard as it can to make this a NATO/EU war by cutting off access to the Kaliningrad enclave. For those who know not history, Commander Salamander points out a rather unpleasant historical parallel.

The Baltic states have been pushing for this to be a NATO/EU war from the start, and on some levels it is hard to blame them. They know they are on the list to be brought into Russkiy Mir by force. Vladimir has just reinforced that with a series of comments and provocations against them and Denmark. That said, I am less than thrilled with their efforts and this latest by Lithuania has the potential to go sideways in a hurry. Then again, that’s why they are doing it.

There are those who are already calling this the Cold War 2, and saying it could last generations. On some levels, I hope they are right. There is far too great a potential for this to become a hot war on levels no one will like. It will take competent, knowledgeable, and strong leadership to navigate either a cold war or a hot, and frankly I don’t see that leadership anywhere in sight right now.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come