Food crisis update

I’ve been saying that the US won’t see starvation, but we’d see prices even higher than we’ve currently got. I continue to think that’s true.

The futures markets for grain and other commodities are taking a beating because of inflationary news, which means companies are betting that the price of grain will go down in the future. But I think they’re basing their belief about decreasing grain prices on things like the recession, inflationary fears, and so on, rather than on what’s really going on in the grain fields. The fundamentals in agriculture continue to be pretty bad, by which I mean that (I believe) that the causes of high prices are still in place, and there’s nothing about the crops themselves that should lead anyone to believe that the prices will go down significantly.

Not all the news is bad, mind you — some signs show that corn and soybeans are going to be better than they could be, and I haven’t heard as much about poultry loss from avian flu recently — but we continue to have serious long-term issues because of drought.

There’s a massive cattle sell-off in Texas right now because of drought, which has caused a shortage of hay and water. 4x the normal number of cattle are currently being sold. Maybe that’ll mean there’s beef at better prices for a little while, maybe not, but it sure means that there will be higher prices in the future. Buy beef and freeze it.

https://61a6a0fd9b4012f13ba5706c.bcvp0rtal.com/detail/videos/agday-minute/video/6309493888112/agday-minute-071322

The US drought’s already bad and is getting worse. See this video:

…and the first chunk of this video:

This coincides with this discussion from last week.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/half-us-corn-crop-was-planted-two-weeks-now-10-day-forecast-shows-signs

Now skip to ~5:40 in that second video to hear about Ukrainian farmers having to sell their grain below cost, with government officials saying, “Without opening the Black Sea ports, I don’t see any solution for Ukrainian farmers to survive. And if they don’t survive, we won’t be able to feed African countries.” There was some possible movement on that yesterday, but none of it involves Russia, which is kind of a big deal. Look for more information on that next week.

Back to the US: Feed shortages are already a concern, and a rail strike may make it worse.

https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/politics/could-rail-workers-now-strike-starting-monday-concerns-feed-shortage-continue

With massive inflation and looming food shortages, I still recommend buying and storing pasta, and now I’ll add that you might want to buy and freeze meat. Meat was always going to go up higher because the cost of grain will reduce meat production overall: It would be good to get more on hand before prices go up, especially if there’s a little dip before that rise starts.

When The Story Begs Serious Questions

Recently, the story of a 10-year-old rape victim having to travel to Indiana to get an abortion because of Ohio law swept unquestioningly across the media landscape, and into the mouths of politicians like the demented meat puppet at 1600 Penn. The problem with that was, there were and are a lot of holes in that story. Massive holes that beg both ethical and legal questions.

The first reporter to raise questions was Megan Fox at PJ Media. Her first column on the story raised a number of important red flags, and a host of questions which have yet to be answered by the Indianapolis Star, the doctor quoted in their story, or a number of other people and/or organizations.

Sadly, far from being a hoax, an illegal alien has been arrested and charged with the rape of the girl. I really do wish it had been a hoax, rather than being true and a child having their childhood destroyed. I pray for her and I hope that she gets some great counseling so as to avoid the many problems that come from childhood rape.

Yet, those troublesome questions remain unanswered. Indeed, they stand in sharper focus as we start to learn more. Let’s run down a few of them.

First, why did a report filed on 22 June with child services not make it to the police, and an arrest made, until 12 or 13 JULY? Why did the attorney general of Ohio and his office not know about it until then? Why did the Columbus police deny any investigation until yesterday?

Second, why was no apparent effort made to obtain an abortion in Ohio? Per the attorney general, the girl qualified if for no other reason than a 10-year-old’s body is not yet ready to give birth even if she had entered puberty. As with the question on why the report was not shared in a timely manner, what efforts if any were made to obtain medical care for the rape victim in Ohio? If they were denied, who denied them and when? Were any reports required of mandatory reporters filed at all by anyone? Who was the alleged “child abuse doctor” and did they file the mandatory paperwork? More importantly, did they make any effort to obtain care in Ohio and if not, why did they instead enlist the aid of a noted abortion activist physician here in Indiana?

Third, given that the procedure was done here in Indiana by the abortion activist doctor, did she at any point file the required reports? Did she have permission to discuss the case with the media or did she violate HIPPA and risk additional trauma to a young rape victim simply for political points? Did she discuss the story or her part in it with her employer or anyone else before going public with the patient’s information? At least, according to the court testimony yesterday, she did keep tissue from the abortion for DNA and/or other analysis.

Fourth, there are a series of questions for the IndyStar. First, in a story relying on a single source, how did they vet what they were being told? What steps, if any, did they take to verify the material, and to verify that the legal rights of the minor rape victim were being protected? Did they at any time seek a legal opinion on the article, and if not, why not? On a story like this, it’s not unusual to seek such an opinion given that it can open the newspaper up to lawsuits and/or prosecution. Was anyone at the IndyStar aware that the source was violating HIPPA and other regulations? Did anyone at the IndyStar question why the rape victim was not treated in Ohio and question the so-called “child abuse doctor” about that? Did anyone on staff do any due diligence to ensure that they, and the child victim, were not being used to further a particular pro-abortion political position?

The latter truly is crucial. If this entire chain of events happened, across state lines, to create and/or push a political outcome, that moves into the realm of criminal activity. It would mean the first “doctor” who remains unknown to the public conspired with the doctor here to use the victim for their own political purposes. It is not only unethical, but would also appear to be in violation of a variety of federal and state laws, not to mention simply being utterly and completely despicable.

If the IndyStar had any idea that it was being used as part of such an effort, and failed to perform due diligence and/or willingly participated, there is no First Amendment shield. It’s been a while since my last media law class, but the courts have held that journalistic operations have some “slack” in terms of violating laws in pursuit of the common good. This mostly applies to classified information and attempts by governments at various levels to prevent damaging information from being reported. Where news organizations have violated laws for gain or to push particular agendas, the courts have not been kind. They will have little to no shield from civil or criminal complaints.

For now, all we have are questions and a situation that stinks to high heaven. Until the IndyStar answers questions about basic journalistic fundamentals, much less the more serious questions, it remains highly suspect in the public eye. They need to come clean and operate transparently if they are to maintain any good public perception.

At best, it would appear that the privacy and other rights of a minor rape victim were knowingly and willfully violated by a number of people and/or institutions. At worst, there was a deliberate effort to use and abuse that victim to create a false political narrative for gain. If the latter is true, then all involved should face the maximum legal and social repercussions. If the former, those involved deserve the same. There is no excuse to violate a child like this for personal or political gain, and it is my opinion that is exactly what has happened. Meantime, I can only hope that she is finally getting real care and treatment and that real, honest investigations are made into everyone involved in this story.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Out!

Out, damned spot! out, I say!–One: two: why, then, ’tis time to do’t.–Hell is murky!–Fie, my lord, fie! a soldier, and afeard? What need we fear who knows it, when none can call our power to account?–Yet who would have thought the children to have had so much blood in them.

No basin, no sink, no river will wash away those spots from all those hands.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Shinzo Abe

More than almost any other world leader, Shinzo Abe saw what was coming and worked hard to bring the West together to face the authoritarians. He brought those of democratic background together around the world to build the bulkwarks against the coming storm. His not-quite eye roll at Merkel’s bloviating to Trump at a summit remains a treasured moment that can still make me smile and laugh. He will never have the respect in the media of an “austere religious scholar” and I suspect he would me more than okay with that. The timing of his assassination worries me very much, and I am going to be following what come out about his assassin and the motivations/payments/etc. closely. I’m more than a little concerned he was the canary in the coal mine for Asia.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Saturday night’s post was short and sweet simply because it happened quickly and there just wasn’t a lot of information. For those that missed it, Vladimir made a fast trip into the Kremlin at 2300 hours (11 pm) Moscow time. Oh, translate the tweet, as it is hilarious. Vladimir going into the Kremlin? Not unusual. Doing so at 2300? Unusual. Very unusual and usually indicates something fairly major has happened. A number of people took notice, including me.

Then, things took a turn for the weird when Kremlin Spox Peskov denied that Vladimir had come in to make a statement. WTF? It’s almost unheard of for a spox to admit that anyone has come into the Kremlin for any reason at any time, just as our spox don’t acknowledge when people go into The Tank, the crisis room, etc. Then, to deny that Vladimir had come in to make a statement is beyond weird.

Now, in the aftermath of this, there was this report of an aircraft making a run north. That particular plane has been used by Gerasimov to get him and his staff places before, and it would appear others have used it as well. Not unusual per se, but at least one observer noted that the last time they saw that plane make that trip, it was when the Moskva was sunk. However, there was no indication of anything of that magnitude happening, and even with the Ukrainians being such shy and retiring types when it comes to their successes surely we would have heard something.

So, welcome to the wonderful world of intel. Something was going on, but so far no rumors out of Moscow as to what was going on. That is a bit unusual as Moscow leaks just as badly as DC, so I really would have expected to hear something by now. Theories do abound, of course. One is that it was a reaction to China upping it’s alert because of a U.S. plane in the straights. Another is that it had something to do with Belarus and Lithuania. Yet another is that it had to do with the debt default that was looming. And, of course, the almost obligatory idea that something had gone wrong internal to Russia. I admit, at the time, I was wondering if the Ukrainians had potted another Russian general.

I’m keeping my ears open, and hope that this is one of those where we do learn fairly soon what was going on. So long as they are not running for the exits, life is good.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Hmmmm

Not sure what is going on, but something just sent Vladimir into the Kremlin at a good clip. The message with the video is hilarious. May be something, may be nothing. Interesting for sure.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Since the last update, the only thing that has changed in terms of Russia/Ukraine is that Russia is pushing hard in more areas in an effort to seize territory and cut off reinforcements from counter-attacking. Of course, that works both ways and the recent deep drone strike(s) by the Ukraine are designed to put the Russians on the defensive. Expect it to get even more brutal and nasty here soon, and for the latest information on the combat check out the OSINT people I link to on Twitter (@laughingwolfone) as a good start.

Not exactly a daring prediction, but expect the Russian push to intensify so that Vladimir can “annex” the most possible territory even if he doesn’t really control it. The announcement of annexation is also likely to declare that any attempt to defend (in areas he doesn’t really control) or to take back what they have seized will be an act of war by Ukraine and NATO.

Yes, I expect Vladimir to expand things as they’ve spent the last 20 or so years preparing the populace for war, even nuclear war, with NATO and the U.S. If you aren’t familiar with some of this, check out Kamil Galeev’s extensive work on this and related subjects.

Right now, Lithuania is pushing as hard as it can to make this a NATO/EU war by cutting off access to the Kaliningrad enclave. For those who know not history, Commander Salamander points out a rather unpleasant historical parallel.

The Baltic states have been pushing for this to be a NATO/EU war from the start, and on some levels it is hard to blame them. They know they are on the list to be brought into Russkiy Mir by force. Vladimir has just reinforced that with a series of comments and provocations against them and Denmark. That said, I am less than thrilled with their efforts and this latest by Lithuania has the potential to go sideways in a hurry. Then again, that’s why they are doing it.

There are those who are already calling this the Cold War 2, and saying it could last generations. On some levels, I hope they are right. There is far too great a potential for this to become a hot war on levels no one will like. It will take competent, knowledgeable, and strong leadership to navigate either a cold war or a hot, and frankly I don’t see that leadership anywhere in sight right now.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Learning from what they don’t say

What leftists aren’t saying about the controversial lesbian kiss in Lightyear shows that they know the truth about conservative racial beliefs — and always lie about it.

I know conservatives are supposed to be racist scum, but look at what doesn’t get said about the controversy surrounding Disney’s new movie, Lightyear.

The Daily Mail’s headline: “Disney’s Lightyear FLOPS in opening weekend that saw it fail to topple Jurassic Park at box office after controversy over lesbian kiss and decision to ax conservative star Tim Allen as voice of Buzz”

Variety, in March: “Same-Sex Kiss Restored in Pixar’s ‘Lightyear’ Following Staff Uproar Over ‘Don’t Say Gay’ Bill (EXCLUSIVE)”

The LA Times reports: “…it was reported that a previously cut kiss shared by queer “Lightyear” character Alisha Hawthorne and her wife was reinstated in the film….[I]ncreasingly loud conservative voices [] try to foment irrational outrage over any acknowledgement of the actual reality of LGBTQ people existing.”

And on, and on, and on.

Of all of those articles posted above, only the Daily Mail shows a picture of the couple in question. Notice anything?

Why aren’t the bigots overreacting to this? I was told there would be bigots!

Yes, they’re an interracial couple.

But the horrifyingly evil conservatives who hate the entire LGBTQIA2SNPZ spectrum, people of color, women, and the poor equally, aren’t saying “boo” about this interracial couple — even though overturning Roe v. Wade would apparently lead us to overturn interracial marriage.

And no leftist (a.k.a. “mainstream”) outlets have even tried to claim that horrifyingly evil conservatives might say such a thing. You’d think that one of us vicious racists would have said something racist about queer miscegenation, and that some leftist paper would have picked it up — and if we didn’t say it, they’d make something up and claim that we were thinking it. But we didn’t say anything, and they didn’t report on anything, and they didn’t even think about accusing us of racism because, well, it’s such nonsense that even they couldn’t dream it up.

What leftists aren’t saying shows us that they know the truth about conservative racial beliefs, even though they normally say the exact opposite.

[Laughing in Clarence Thomas]

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

As I said a while back, I am happy to have been wrong about May. That said, while I have dropped the use of special weapons to 40 percent, I am not inclined to drop lower yet. Why? Internal rhetoric and the fact that things stood up have not been stood down. Until I see the internal discussions change, and things stood down and locked back up, I have to consider such things as still on the table. Not likely currently, but things change and they can change in a heartbeat.

The demented meat puppet is NOT helping things. Someone yesterday said he was trying to finesse things, which scares the everliving out of most sane people as he and his handlers don’t have a clue of how to do that. He and his administration continue to both needlessly antagonize Vladimir (and miss a lot of what is needed to deal with him and the situation) and present challenges to our allies.

In other words, pretty much same old, same old. No real change over the last few weeks. As for the actual combat, it is the grind previously discussed. The OSINT crew out there is doing an amazing job of not only covering the combat, but also the history, cultural, and other factors that go into this conflict. If there is an interest, I will put up a list of the OSINT people I follow. I will also say (again) that back in the early 80s I would have just about killed for some of the resources OSINT has today. And, not surprising, OSINT is largely beating the various agencies and organizations on a consistent basis. Only other thing is that so far the Ukraine has fought very smart. Conventional wisdom and a lot of current military planning is getting stood on its head and smart people are paying attention.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Wheat supplies at 10 weeks

Farmers and agricultural publications continue to provide detail that shows the seriousness our politicians aren’t yet really facing.

Menker’s team at Gro Intelligence finds, as of May 19, global inventories of wheat amount to 20% of annual consumption, meaning the world has just 10 weeks’ worth of global wheat consumption in storage.

“Conditions today are worse than those experienced in 2007 and 2008,” she says. “The lowest grain inventory levels the world has ever seen are now occurring, while access to fertilizers is highly constrained, and drought in wheat growing regions around the world is the most extreme it’s been in over 20 years.”

AgWeb, Is the World Really Running Out of Wheat? 06/07/2022

Note that AgWeb doesn’t answer the question that they ask. The answer appears to be, “Yes, we are running out of wheat.”

More specifically, the world would probably be okay if we were getting bumper crops in the US and Canada, but we’re not. We’re lucky in that the over-wet weather finally broke long enough for us to get wheat, corn, and soybeans planted, but we’re not going to get a crop that will compensate for the lack of wheat elsewhere.

Also worth noting: The price of beef is not looking too expensive right now relative to expectations. Unfortunately, that appears to be because beef farmers are afraid that the cost of fodder and grains will go high enough that they won’t be able to keep their cattle profitably, so it’s better to slaughter and sell them in the short term than raise them longer term. That keeps a lid on prices right now — higher supply — but reduces supply in the future dramatically, because we’re killing tomorrow’s stock today.

I reiterate that I’m not an expert on this stuff and am only repeating what I hear from people in the business who seem to know better. Feel free to argue: I’d love to find out that I’m wrong.