The Laughing Wolf

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

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If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Light Posting?

If there is any posting beyond this, it is likely going to be lite. First, there are not a lot of new developments in the Ukraine. Second, I’m taking the time to try to sift through some things there and with some of the ag issues. Third, we are going to have a day of storms, and the storms do me bad. Yes, that means it can and does affect cognition. I live by lists and notes as it is, days like today push that. It also doesn’t help that I had to be at a lab before dawn for a fasting blood draw. The only redeeming part of that is that I got to have breakfast at a nice little place a vampire recommended to me a while back.

So, there may be more later but I make no promises. Especially as if we are being hit by storms I tend not to be on the computer, away from windows, etc. Yes, getting hit by lightning has, finally some may argue, taught me a bit of caution.

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Be Impossible

I admit that I am highly improbable. My surviving childhood was improbable. My survival this last year is equally improbable. All the more reason we should all be impossible. What she says.

Huge Grain Of Salt

Over at Instapundit, Stephen Green links to an Axios piece that really is just a recitation of a release from the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences. The gist is that the economic sanctions are simply pushing the people of Russia to support Putin.

While the story he links does bring up a couple of caveats, it really downplays them with an effectively anonymous source (single). The summation of the story that any threat to Putin is years away is ludicrous.

Now, Stephen does make a good point that the Russian people are used to suffering hardship in the face of enemies. That is part of the Slavophile prototype and of propaganda for most of a century now. Stephen has been against sanctions against the Russian people from the start, and he has made some good points. The problem is, however, that sanctions against the government, as well as its leaders, are going to hit the people to some extent or another.

Sad to say, there are some good reasons to do so, to inflict pain on the people via sanctions. It can drive unrest, it can get some to question things, and it can force other changes. Will it in this case? Maybe.

Keep in mind the discussion a while back on the differences in the different generations. The younger generation does not view Russia and the world in the same way as the older/oldest generation. They are focused on career, improving their lives, and are not bound to the old models. Look at the (hundreds of) thousands of professionals who fled Russia since this began. The brain drain is enormous, and I invite you to go back and re-watch the videos I linked on Saturday that look at demographics.

Also, understand that two other factors tie into the pseudo-anonymous source that is supposedly a journalist. One, most journalists in Russia are as much state controlled as they ever were in the Soviet era. You toe the line, or else. Or else can be fleeing the country as the very brave protester/journalist who interrupted a broadcast did, or you can take a bullet to the back of the head like Anna Politkovskaya.

Two, she’s understating that dissent is crushed. People at any and all levels are scared to say anything that could be taken as not supporting the war. Or Vladimir. Or the system. You get the picture. Even the mildest of dissent gets you ostracized, or beaten. Get into real criticism, and you are likely to need a doctor, a new job, and/or a way out of the country. Keep at it, and you are dead.

The idea that anyone would trust a “journalist” or a researcher in a state-controlled institution and give them open and honest answers (even off the record) is about zero. Maybe to someone who is trusted, but even then caution is the watchword.

So, I take any “man on the street” things like this with a tun of salt, not a grain. The odds of it being propaganda/disinformatzia is almost 100 percent. Are there people who do feel as portrayed? You bet your bippie. Are there people who blame Putin and the oligarchs for the pain? Again, you bet your bippie. Are you going to find many/any of them stupid enough to say it out loud? No.

So, do I wish there were a way to punish Vladimir et al without inflicting pain on the Russian people (who I have found overall to be rather nice and even fun, though they have an outlook on life that is very different)? Yes. Does it exist? No. Will the pain turn the screws? Maybe. Is the release from the MSSES to be trusted or taken at face value? No.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

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Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

This morning’s homework is fairly easy and quick. First, go read Kamil Galeev on Vladimir’s rise to power. Then, Trent Telenko has an interesting take on cohesive teams, and some strong thoughts on the de-escalation team in the Biden administration.

If you are not reading Kamil Galeev on a regular basis, you should be. Yes, he has his own biases and a somewhat unique position and perspective on things. That doesn’t mean that he isn’t sharing a lot of good information. This morning’s read is one of many that get into Russian politics in a way that is probably too “inside baseball” for many — including our politicians and intelligence agencies — but make a fascinating and fact-filled bit of food for thought. It also drives home that it is a very different system, which makes a good reminder of the danger of mores when evaluating people and events.

Also, within that, notice some of the names. Several of them feature strongly in what is going on today, and in particular I want to point out the role of Abramovitch in Putin’s rise. There are still pieces in this tale that are missing and/or don’t make sense when it comes to that man and his actions. Those pieces have the potential to be crucial when it comes to the step after next.

It is also worth noting the mass arrests underway. To say the FSB is being purged is both accurate and potentially an understatement. The question being are they getting rid of the deadwood or is the deadwood getting rid of those who could be a threat to them? You should also pull from the homework above that past support and assistance to Vladimir gets you nothing. What matters is the here and now, and if saving his skin means sacrificing even those (formerly) close to him, well, it’s a sacrifice he will cheerfully make.

With the purge underway, it also makes the question of if there will be FSB or other special units involved with upcoming military operations in the style of what KGB special troops performed in the Soviet Army. If you weren’t familiar with them, they were the troops that made the point that if you advanced you might die; but, if you failed to advance or follow a given order, you would die. Charming people.

The first Telenko video shows not only how you do it, but the absolute failure of U.S. Intelligence, who completely missed that the Ukrainians could do it. That they could have teams that had built the absolute trust necessary for that type of operation. Pro Tip: to have that degree of target focus you have to have absolute trust in your partner/team. That doesn’t happen overnight. Following up on yesterday and comments here and at the links, do you really think any intelligence agency or analyst did even the most cursory debrief of the troops we had over there advising and training? How many other incorrect, incomplete, biased, and outdated assumptions are in our assessment of both the Ukraine and of Russia? Elsewhere? Members of Congress and others really do need to be asking some strong and pointed questions of our intelligence agencies.

As for the second Telenko link, I think he’s correct and he does have a point. However, I don’t think Vladimir will just sit by if we start supplying major weapons systems to the Ukraine. He literally can’t, and assuming (against all odds) that there is someone competent in government service, a realistic assessment of Vladimir’s options is needed before upping the ante in this way. It is the same as establishing a no-fly zone: it’s pretty much guaranteed to start WWIII on a grand scale.

I will also say that I share Telenko’s contempt for the so-called de-escalation faction in the Biden administration. The disaster that is the invasion and it’s start are on them almost as much as it was on Vladimir. Their foot dragging ultimately increased casualties on both sides, civilian and military. Their continued foot dragging is virtually guaranteed to escalate the situation. They are not serious people and they do not have a fucking clue.

I’m hoping that the Russian’s delay their new offensive for a few days longer. It’s not hard to figure out that Ukrainian logistics systems are overwhelmed. This has prevented efforts to push back on the Russians, to liberate Mariupol and get ready for the next attack on it, and to prepare in depth for the new offensive. They are doing what appears to be an amazing job, based on what I am getting. It’s just that they need supplies and help too. Since it is logistics that are ultimately going to decide things, I hope they get the support they need.

Now, every expert and armchair tactician and strategist is opining on what the Russians will do next. Let me set an example and state that while I have suspicions, I don’t have a flippin clue exactly what they will do and how. There are troop buildups that give hints, and I can offer a couple of takes on things.

I would expect to see large numbers of troops used to seize what would normally be considered small objectives. I would expect to see units used to test trying to do things differently this time. In the long term, the Russians pretty much have to take the Donbas and the Southern front and ports. They might could try to claim victory with just the Donbas (and the land bridge to the Crimea), but that will fool no one and Putin will die.

While not very professional, I have to admit I am laughing at how far behind the front lines they are unloading troops and ammo. It says volumes of their consideration of Ukrainian capabilities.

The other thing I expect to see is efforts made to prevent planting and other food production efforts over the widest area possible. If Vladimir can cut off the ability to export wheat and other products, it cuts off hard cash and the ability to buy weapons. Hence, one of the reasons (among many) to seize the ports. It also makes starvation a weapon against the Ukrainians. That is Vladimir’s focus on this tangent, though those around him might want to consider the wider context.

If you watched and read the links over the last week, it was pointed out how many areas/nations are dependent on the fertilizer/fertilizer components exported by China, Russia, and the Ukraine. It was pointed out how many areas/nations are dependent on wheat imports from the Ukraine, Russia, and elsewhere. Now, take a moment to go read this, this, and this. Now, does anyone remember what happened the last time there were shortages of wheat that didn’t rise to the potential levels we are looking at today? Bueller? Bueller?

Anyone remember Arab spring and the revolutions and unrest it sparked? What happens when it’s not just the Middle East/North Africa that’s starving?

Now there’s the scary thought. The Middle East and Africa are bad enough, but consider that while there is not likely to be starvation, you are going to be talking shortages in Europe and Asia. It is a situation that in some ways would be even more flipped up than Europe in 1914. Welcome back Carter my fuzzy fluffy rump… We should be so lucky.

Do keep in mind, the nice thing about looking into the Mirror of Galadriel is that it can show you what will happen; but, it can also show you what might happen. To be blunt, a great deal of analysis right now is looking into the Mirror. We can see what might happen, but the choices of individuals can change what happens. Remember, the so-called experts looked into the Mirror and confidently said that the Afghans would hold for six months, and the Ukrainians for 72 hours. Decisions by individuals high and low rendered that moot.

The one thing about which I have confidence is that it is going to be nasty, brutal, and bloody. If you think the special troops with the lists were busy before in torturing and executing civilians, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Especially with even some of the Russians/Russophiles in the Donbas getting cold feet. Vladimir has to go all in, he has no other choice. Buckle up.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

The Threat Horizon Expands

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The Threat Horizon Expands

Before we get into things today, here’s some homework you need to do first. Trent Telenko has an amazing series on logistics here, here, here, here, and here. Take a few minutes to go read them, as while they are not long they are packed with information. Then go read this post on the (latest) major failure of our intelligence services. Then, as a final treat, read this post on a way to rapidly bring Ukrainian forces up to speed on our major weapons systems.

Now, lets jump to a brief discussion of the General that Putin has now put in charge: Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov. It may surprise you to know that he is one of the few (like two) members of the Russian military leadership with actual military experience. If you didn’t know that most of the leadership are civilians appointed as Generals, you didn’t read the links in previous posts. You probably also missed how this aided the kleptocracy and means that Russian troops are understrength and undersupplied even at the best of times.

I agree with Donald Sensing that the war has gotten larger. I disagree with him that the recent attacks take the peace talks out of play. There has been no real way for Vladimir to exit almost from the start. While Biden’s verbal incontinence didn’t help anything, Vladimir rolled the dice knowing that there would either be victory or death. Demographics, economics, and other considerations made this very much a last desperate roll of the dice. Thus, I fully agree with Donald Sensing that Plan B is scorched earth.

Why? Let’s go back to General Dvornikov. He has combat experience from the second Chechen war and Syria. The latter is very important. Why? Well, check out this story and this story about his time in Syria and his nickname. You may also remember him from the Kerch Straight incident. He is aggressive, hasn’t blinked at the use of chemical weapons, and not likely to blink at using the full CBN portfolio per doctrine at Vladimir’s order. To be honest, I have a small suspicion that he might not wait for the order, much less be shy about asking for release. I also strongly suspect that such discussions have already taken place.

Now, let’s jump away for a minute to talk about some of the problems facing Gen. Dvornikov. The Russian Army is stuck with a 1920s/30s logistics system. Per previous posts and links, we know that they literally — in far too many cases — can’t operate off roadways. It’s not just the flooding and the normal mud of this time of year, it’s a lack of significant training in land nav along with crap equipment. Which means they can’t control the land between the roadways, even where such are relatively close together.

Because of the kleptocracy, many if not most units are potentially twenty five percent understrength. Supplies, systems, and parts have been sold on the black so that the troops were not only getting frostbite, but important systems like tanks, APCs, rockets, and missiles were non-functional. There are a growing number of reports that units in the East/South areas are refusing orders and attempts to use conscripts from the enclaves in the Donbas are not going well. Never mind that though they appear to be attempting to push some of the units from the retreat in the North into the East, the attempts aren’t going well, especially in units that were effectively destroyed.

So, the Russians are calling up the reserves. They pretty much have to as they can’t really pull troops out of other areas. The problem is, those reserves have many of the same training issues and getting working gear to them is going to be an interesting exercise. If they even have that gear.

It may be that Vladimir is counting on sheer numbers to get results. If so, this is going to be a long bloody slog. It may be that he will try to increase attacks on Ukrainian logistics to do to them what they did to him. It is fairly obvious that previous attacks on Ukrainian logistics have had some serious effects, and that such are one of the reasons they’ve not been able to take full advantage of some recent opportunities.

Vladimir is desperate that the Ukraine not be resupplied. Hence all the bluster coming out about the bad things that will happen to anyone who tries to supply the Ukraine with anything (or even breathe heavily towards Moscow). The problem is, many are dismissing it as impotent bluster. I see it as yet one more sign of desperation, and desperate people do stupid things. Dvornikov is not someone who will tell Vladimir no, keep that in mind. The threats are not a bluff, though if they work they will take the victory and nod and smile when people say “good bluff.”

If Vladimir throws sufficient numbers of troops into the war, he can overwhelm the Ukraine. He can’t hold it, however. The big problem for the numbers game is one simple word: leadership. The Russian Army was already short on real leadership, and since the fighting started they have been brutally culled by the Ukrainians. The problems with training, lack of fighting spirit, and other issues are requiring Generals and Colonels be near or even in the units being directed to attack. This also puts them in exposed positions, that coupled with the com situation from hell, let the Ukrainians do some serious targeting. Keep in mind that the problems with leadership extend to all ranks of leadership. What this means is that even with numbers, without good leadership at all levels, they are going to have a hard time doing even basic things, and the losses that result will make their losses so far seem like a love tap.

So, what do I expect? I think Dvornikov is going to have to bring in a lot of leadership, if it is there for him to get. I think that in terms of brutality towards the Ukrainian people, the civilian population, we ain’t seen nothing yet. Dvornikov is used to using air power, and it will be interesting to see if he can get it to use here. In Syria, there really wasn’t any threat to the air power (other than the U.S.), whereas now it will be a contested battle. I also expect to see a lot more effort put into destroying Ukrainian agriculture. This is both to starve them, and to put a stop to exports that bring in hard currency that can be used to get more military equipment… And if the Middle East and other areas starve, well, maybe those governments will try to force a peace that meets Russian standards. I also think that the potential use of special weapons has increased. For now, I am holding at 60/40, but will revise that once the Russians show more of their hand. I also expect to see the outright execution of unit leaders and troops who refuse orders or otherwise fail to perform.

Once again, let me make clear that I feel it would be a huge mistake guaranteed to bring on WWIII if we try to impose a no-fly zone or otherwise take a direct role in the fighting. This is not our fight. It is the Ukrainians and I want to see them given everything we can possibly give them in terms of supplies. Is Trent Telenko’s idea to get them major systems a good one? I think it is workable, but if it is done, don’t be surprised if Vladimir widens the war even further.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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Lack Of Posting Explanation

Sorry for the lack of posting Thursday and Friday. Thursday was an early morning appointment at the dentist, to do the cleaning that had been delayed while they checked with my cardiologist over antibiotics and such. However, a quick and routine visit it was not.

At some point, my jaws clenched hard enough to break some previous dental work. It is possible that when I got hit by the lightning and locked up, that I did enough damage so that later it didn’t take much to finish it off. There were are couple of other areas that needed attention, and I was surprised to find out that fillings and such now are only expected to last five years. Guess I got my money’s worth out of what I do have.

So, we fixed the two easy things that day, though I had to wait around a couple of hours to be worked in. Unfortunately, the previous dental work can’t be fixed, and will require a crown. Guess what my insurance doesn’t cover? There are a few other things that need to be done, but for now I’m only focusing on trying to fix what needs fixing before I move. Some of the other I will have to have done after the move as it takes time (and a large amount of money).

Thursday and Friday saw weather changes, which hit me hard. I was more absentminded that normal Thursday, and Friday was not good physically or mentally. There are days the “scrambling” of data hits me harder than others, and as it is I live off lists these days. Fun. Given that it snowed this morning, I don’t really feel like going out but have to run a couple of errands.

More soon.

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War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Russia’s efforts to focus on the Donbas and the Southern front are proving interesting. There are a number of reports coming out that if they are indeed true, could well mean that Russia’s new offensive will have even more problems than the attempt on Kyiv. Hoping to learn more over the weekend.

If it is true that Gen Dvornikov has taken over command of the offensive, brutal will take on an entirely new meaning. Check his record in Syria (and before) He’s already been linked to the rocket attack on the evacuees. Mostly women and children? No matter, besides they aren’t as likely to fight back and inflict casualties.

There are reports that Russia is going to mobilize 60,000 reservists. Desperation play, especially given that they have taken horrendous casualties and a large number of units are combat ineffective because of losses. More on this next week.

As for Vladimir attending the funeral with the “football” at hand? Great theatre and preys upon the Biden administrations fear of starting WWIII. It upsets the neighbors too, which is more than half the point. It was a bit of psyop just to poke back at the people who have been poking him and now his family.

Now, some food for thought with a different twist. I can talk about Russkiy Mir until I’m blue in the face, and share insights all day long. I can continue to point out that we have a world without a single major power having stable leadership. Below are two presentations dealing with demographics that, while I don’t agree with some of his conclusions (he apparently believed the Ukraine would fall and fast), there is a LOT of good information there.

And, yet more info and some additional thoughts on ag and more

Some people I know on social media have been talking about ag issues for some time now. Jake Freivald has been on this one for a while, noting that it could get interesting here but will be devastating elsewhere. Linking to a couple of his citations: a look at the fertilizer crisis and problems with our winter wheat crop. There is already an impact in Europe, and it’s likely to get worse. We will adapt and overcome. Most of the world’s farmlands outside the U.S. have to have fertilizer, and lots of it. China, Russia, and the Ukraine will not be exporting this year. This is going to be devastating.

Oh, and just a note that the Russians are once again using starvation as a weapon in the Ukraine.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

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Mismatched Locomotives

I’m going to make this short and sweet, given that I’m still buried in paperwork. Here’s some food for thought for the day.

First up, Kamil Galeev, with further proof that’s he’s more on the ball than all the Western intelligence agencies combined. It is long, but well worth the read. I will admit, I’m one who missed the ’68 steal — I should have caught that.

Second, Trent Telenko makes an excellent point on targeting. The Ukraine would be stupid to go after thanks and such with the new drones. So far, they’ve avoided that. Let’s hope they continue to fight smart.

He also has a message for the flags in the Pentagon. It’s an old one. I once got to be a part of upgrading computers at a military installation, one that almost got someone courtmartialed. We pulled it off, and while we couldn’t get everyone up to what the corporate world was doing (had to do a bunch of it as non-PCs because of contract, at least we got rid of the 8″ floppy discs), it was a huge step up.

Chew on this food for thought for a bit. There is more to come.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine