I admit that I am highly improbable. My surviving childhood was improbable. My survival this last year is equally improbable. All the more reason we should all be impossible. What she says.
Category: Politics
Three Futures For Russia
As I’ve noted several times before, if you are not reading Kamil Galeev on a regular basis, you should be. In this post, he begins his exploration of three possible futures for Russia. In this, he makes a lot of very good points.
Some Previous Posts:
Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine
Your Must Read For The Day On Russia
The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces
Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin
Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces
Accuracy, Reliability, And More
Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm
*****
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm
Is Vladimir getting good and accurate info in his briefings? No. Next question.
Seriously, the reports that he is not being told of reality should be unsurprising. He has special ways of dealing with those who disappoint him, which can even include their families. As such, if you think those who brief and advise him are being bluntly honest about things, I have a bridge for sale…
As for the reports that he and other leaders/oligarchs are spreading out to various bunkers, again, are you surprised? Forget the nuclear threat, there is a real and valid concern for Vladimir and those around him that efforts will be made to remove him — permanently. He’s been doing the whole “guess where I am” thing for a while, moving around at random to cut down on the odds of assassination.
Part of the problem with building that golden bridge so he has an out (that Biden has effectively nuked) is that Vladimir himself has created a good bit of the problem that faces him and others: failure equals death. In fact, those that have failed him (and/or the Rodina in his mind) have more than earned the gruesome deaths given them. The problem for Vladimir is that the precedent has been set, and he knows what HE would do in that situation to the person stepping down. To him and even unto his family.
For all the estrangement with family, and even with former mistresses and potential children, I suspect there is some concern there for what would happen to them. They are his blood, and that comes with a price. It would be one thing if the new administration went after them for money which he has used them to hide; but, such things rarely stop there.
This is the way things used to be before the great experiment that is the Republic that is the United States of America. Even the “normal” passing of a kingship from father to son could be fraught with peril. When it wasn’t normal, the bloodshed was often stupendous and the families of the loser faced slaughter and slavery. The idea was to destroy not only the person at the lead, but any and all legacy including genetic.
Which brings me to Donald Trump and the derangement of the left. Granny Wine Box of the family Venal just couldn’t put away her kangaroo suit after two failed impeachments, but brought about the January 6 farce being played out. Add to it all the different investigations (which have largely found nothing and gone nowhere) and efforts to destroy Trump and his family, and you have an end to the cornerstone of the Republic: the peaceful transition of power.
It is being made abundantly clear that any who oppose the so-called Elite will be destroyed. Between cancel culture, interference with banking, malicious prosecution and sentencing, and all the other things we see being touted in the media as just and proper, the peaceful transfer of power is dead. It will start with the courts, as each administration is tried and found guilty for crimes real and imagined. It will end in bloodshed.
In the past, even when it was clear that someone had broken the law, there was a reluctance to prosecute after they left office for fear of damaging that cornerstone. Today, the cornerstone is being hit by gleefully wielded jackhammers in an effort to destroy the personification of the threat to the Elites. That they still fail to grasp that Trump was between them and the threat says much.
Of course, like Vladimir did, they fail to grasp that they will be subject to the new rules and not exempted from them. What is happening right now with Vladimir is simply the normal version of the world in many respects, and the logical extension of destroying your political opponents. It is where the efforts now underway will lead if we let it.
Some food for thought this morning.
Some Previous Posts:
Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine
Your Must Read For The Day On Russia
The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces
Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin
Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces
Accuracy, Reliability, And More
*****
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Dear Resident Xiden
Your event last night was many things, most of which I will leave to others. However, I will address one part with the care and thoughtfulness it deserves.
You spent time telling American Citizens what they can or cannot do. Who they can spend time with, and who they can’t, and in what size of groups. What activities they can take part in, and those they can’t. The exhortations to obey were trite and wearisome.
Despite all that is going on, the avalanche of executive orders, the bills to eliminate our individual liberty and freedoms, we are still American Citizens. The government does not tell us what or what not to do. We tell the government what to do. You (you and your puppet masters) are supposed to be servants, not the civil masters you believe yourselves to be.
So, please feel free to **** off.
Sincerely,
LW
Happy Warrior 3: Finding the Happy in the Warrior
Today, we have another guest post by River, which I hope you enjoy. It is well worth the read.
The political news continues to be relentlessly bad. Our enemies domestic, the Democrats in power, now openly Socialist, are going down their wishlist with but little resistance to the policies that will fundamentally transform our Republic into a totalitarian state. Our enemies foreign are preparing for war; worldwide economic collapse is imminent (whether through runaway inflation or stagflation, take your pick).
So how to find the happy in the warrior? First, I think we have to accept that the first Republic is gone. Denying reality is the specialty of the other side; let’s not fall into that hole in the sand ourselves. It’s going to be very hard to face the reality of the depth of the hole we’ve fallen into. Figuring out how and why is useful, if depressing. Figuring out how to get out of it is where the happy lies.
The question is how do we get from where we are now to the Second Republic. There was a joke when the Iron Curtain fell and the Eastern Bloc countries were reinventing themselves, and we were sending all sorts of political and economic consultants over there: Why not give them our Constitution, we’re not using it…. The Constitution can and should be the bedrock of the Second Republic.
Also still applicable are the battlecries of the first American Revolution: “Taxation with Representation.” “Give me liberty, or give me death!” “When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government.”
So the people who are framing the potential violence to come as a Civil War II are wrong. This is not about states rights, it’s not about continuing the vile practice of slavery. It’s about a return to the individual freedoms we as Americans have the right to enjoy. This is not CWII, it’s ARII.
Of course, one of the reasons ARI worked was that it was a conservative revolution, that is, it wasn’t seeking to change the form of government, it was seeking to restore it from those who were changing the rules. So we have that on our side, because that’s what we’re trying to do, too.
Another reason ARI succeeded was that the usurpers were, at that point, essentially foreigners. And another was that we were already self-governing, with all the machinery in place, and didn’t need control from afar.
And that’s not quite the case for ARII. The people seeking to control us are homegrown, and all the machinery for governance is in their hands. However, we do have a perfectly good, if heretofore unreliable, antidote to their machinery, in the Republican party. The next step on the path is for as many of us as possible to join the party, support Trump’s efforts at reform, and provide some backbone and organization for the necessary changes to come.
And at the same, we should be rooting out the influence of our foreign enemies. While the Republic’s usurpers are homegrown it will be a useful exercise for the revolutionaries of ARII to discover and make public the names of those who are subsidized (and/or controlled by threat of embarrassment or violence) by foreign influence. I’m talking hard proof, not rumors, but serious forensic accounting, serious investigative reporting. If it were easy, anybody could do it. We’ll need dedicated armchair warriors—in the most serious sense of the phrase–and we’ll need those who can protect them while they are at their work.
This is a war that will be fought on many fronts, and almost assuredly the most important of them will not be the cartridge box, but the box that sits on your desk or in your pocket. This is a 21st century war, and information, and culture, will be just as important as brave men with guns. About which more later.
A List Of Lies
While I do wish he had not called it a riot (it was not, riots are what burned so many cities over the summer), Glenn Greenwald has done a great job of listing the major lies about what happened on January 6 at the Capitol. For all that I still wonder if I didn’t shift a reality or two because Glenn has been a voice of reason of late, it is a much needed post to counter the mainstream media narrative. Go read it.
Disgusting Cancel Culture Attack on Baen Books

In some ways, I’m not surprised as there have been efforts to attack Baen and/or some of its authors before from the slime mold at the bottom of the science fiction sewer. This effort, however, has a very different and new twist that may well become the hallmark of all such efforts.
In what seems like a coordinated effort, complaints were filed with the ISPs behind Baen Books, in an effort to deplatform the publisher. Note, from the information I have right now, they not only wanted to take down the Bar, a forum that has been around for roughly 20 years now; but, to take down Baen Books so that it could not promote, sell, or give away (you have no idea how many free books and stories you can get there, but should).
I won’t link to the sleazy “author” (cough, choke, gasp, wheeze, yeah right) who is either behind this attack or fronting for it. I won’t link to the intellectually dishonest paetron story which is the public pretext for the attack on Baen. I especially won’t linke to Vile 770 which seems to be championing the effort (no surprise that slime mold central is so doing).
What I will do is link to the (as usual excellent) response from Larry Correia which now also includes responses from David Weber and Baen Publisher Toni Weisskopf. Please read them all.
Now, in the interest of transparency (something more in modern journalism should try) I do need to note a number of items.
While I am not published by Baen (yet), I have known Toni for more years than a gentleman (or cranky old wolf) should disclose. Indeed, Toni has edited my three photo books from Iraq as a friend. Toni has encouraged me for years (along with the late Jim Baen) to move from science writing to writing science fiction. She’s provided feedback on my efforts to do just that.
Second, I was (am?) a member of the Bar (Baen’s Bar). I haven’t been on in years, but in my time there the only thing of which it was a hotbed was geekery. The forums and posts were wide rangning, engaging, and quite often enlightening as you had posts from scientists in various fields on topics of interest (especially to writers), a forum on theology, and even a place to share recipes. The original “no hitting” rule was in place and rarely did anyone cross that line. Not to say that some discussions did not become intense, or even fractious, but people toed the line and showed respect for differing opinions and the people behind them. It was and is the mature way to handle things, and to learn in the process. I would also note that those who “ran” the Bar were all volunteers.
Sadly, the people behind cancel culture have an emotional maturity to shame a spoiled 4-year-old. I also have to wonder if this effort wasn’t just a way to try to shut down Baen because some of it’s authors are conservative, but to gain fame and fortune (maybe someone will buy/pay for his work) in the process.
Third, I know a number of the Baen authors and consider some of them good personal friends. For the record, Baen publishes books by authors who range from card-carrying socialists to those who go far right. Honestly, Toni doesn’t care about the politics, religion, etc. of the authors, artists, editors, etc. What matters is that they write good and engaging stories that sell. Nor does she care if the stories lean right, left, or any other way. Again, good stories that sell. It’s what real publishing is all about: good writing that sells rather than messaging crap that doesn’t.
Fourth, I will admit that Baen not only helped with arrangements but assisted in covering the costs for me to do a series of video interviews with some of their authors a while back. You can find those somewhere on the Baen site (at least I think you still can) or at the Blackfive YouTube Channel.
I suppose I should be furious about this dispicable effort to de-platform Baen by a group of philisophically and morally bankrupt people who’s intellect makes a cherrystone clam shake its head. The fact is, they are not worth that level of attention by me. In fact, I will simply say that I hope their actions bring them what they deserve.
So, what can you or I do? Save the outrage, they deserve only mocking laughter. What we can do is cheerfully go and buy from Baen books. Look at what they have available, and buy as many as you can.
Oh, and if you want to claim that Baen and its authors deserve this; or that Baen has caved by taking the Bar offline temporarily; or any other silly virtue signalling that actually only calls out your, ah, shortcomings to the world, take it elsewhere. If you do try to come here, I will savagely mock you and your physical and intellectual shortcomings. You are warned.
Laugh at the first group, and buy from the second. So easy anyone can do it.
What’s Up With Crazy Nancy

It’s actually not a question, but rather that I have a suspicion about what is driving her increasingly paranoid and, frankly, deranged comments and actions.
Let’s start with the fact that Nancy and far too many in Congress and government have little to no contact with reality. Like her compatriots, she comes from a political family and is used to living a life of wealth and power. She has steadily expanded that wealth and power throughout her years in Congress. The worries of the “little people” about missing a paycheck, unexpected expenses, putting food on the table, and all else that is real life for the majority of citizens isn’t real to her. She runs in circles where this is the norm, and the worst she has to face is running out of her favorite ice cream and not being able to eat it for a day or two.
Her contact with the proles is carefully limited, usually scripted, and designed for her to signal rather than to actually engage. She has no use for those proles, and holds them in contempt — including the troops currently helping guard the Capitol. Keep in mind, this is the woman who won’t fly commerical but demands Air Force transport that over the last couple of decades has cost hunreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, to avoid being anywhere near the proles. She’s smart and cunning within her own world, but, again, that world has little to no contact with reality. For two good takes on this, read this post and then this post over at Sarah A. Hoyt’s site (which you should be reading everyday).
Now, add in the fact that she is slipping. Her famed skills in politics are not what they once where. She is challenged within the party, and not always by AOC and the new crew. Her badly thought out video interview was not really aimed at the proles, but rather those in the bubble in part to remind them she is still rich and powerful, and to signal her “concern” for the average person rather than to do anything for them. Remember, within this class, signalling is far more important that doing something that works. The signal is what matters, not the results.
For Nancy, I suspect her rise to power and the effort to put the “elites” in permanent charge has been what might be termed an adacemic or intellectual exercise. Yes, people would pay a price for what she wants to see happen, but any financial or other price — including the loss of lives — would be others, not her and hers.
Then came the riot at the Capitol. The proles (on pretty much every side) broke in. They broke in to her office. In her mind, they attacked her. This was no longer academic, or even professional politics: this was suddenly having to face reality and she’s handling it badly. Her brush with reality has instilled a sense of panic if not outright terror, because she suddenly realized that her actions might actually have consequences for her and her family. That she could pay that price of loss of money, freedom, or even her life.
Students of history, much less those who have worked with intelligence matters including trying to figure out what others will do, can recognize the signs. It’s not new, as it has happened many times over the ages. Even Hollywood has used it, usually with some right-wing type tyrant killing off those around them for fear of treachery. Though, for my money, one of the best depictions of it was done by Tom Clancy in The Sum Of All Fears.
The person in power suddenly realizes that they could die or otherwise pay a price. Instead of reacting in a professional manner, they make everything personal because to them it is personal as everything revolves around them. They focus in on that aspect like an electron microscope. Everything else is dropped. The decisions they make are based on that, not on reality or even reality within the bubble. Those decisions are always, always, bad. They make the situation worse, and in reality it often leads to bloodshed and violence that could have been prevented. My one gripe with the late Mr. Clancy (who was a very good host btw) in his book is that the intervention he described is good fiction, but not well based in reality.
Look at Nancy’s actions since the riot. Look at her reactions and body language. This is the face and actions of someone in power who has suddenly realized that this is real, and is terrified. In her mind, all those who came in (right, left, Anti-fah, BLM) were coming for her. In her actions and comments since, that idea seems to have grown and consumed a large part of her mind and thoughts. The troops can’t be trusted, since they are proles, but we need more troops to guard us. Set up machine guns to gun down the swarms who will attack on inauguration day. Why, Republicans and maybe even others in the House are looking to gun us down on the floor of the House. We need more loyal people to guard me/us.
These are not cool, calm, professional, or even rational comments and concerns. They are, however, a fairly typical response by narcisistic leaders and tyrants when they suddenly realize that they might actually pay a price. I also strongly suspect from what I hear and read that she’s not alone with this slide into paranoia and fantasy. They just are being more quiet about it and/or don’t have her platform. It’s also why they truly believe it to be an insurrection, rather than using that line as a Big Lie for gain. That’s happening, but I suspect that Nancy and others really think it was, because in their minds it was aimed at harming them. Also keep in mind that any thing done to thwart them is now a personal attack on them. That’s the way this type of thinking works.
Leaders, heck, anyone, in this condition make bad, very bad, decisions. Given that their decisions were never based in reality to start with, what happens next could go not just badly, but extremely badly. Look at history to see just how badly. Look also at The Killing Fields, the Gulags, the Camps.
Now, to make your day even brighter, look at our military. Do you think that the military will hold, and do it’s proper duty to refuse illegal orders? I don’t. I suspect that at best, the military will shatter. In it’s current state, it can not and will not hold. The consequences of that, however, are preferable to implementation of what is being discussed openly: vetting the troops for proper politics. In other words, purging the military of anyone not progressive enough and creating a praetorian/republican guard organization loyal not to the Constitution, but to those in power. In any way, shape, or form, this is a very bad idea.
Part of me hopes I’m wrong on this, especially as I have no faith in the professionalism, honor, or integrity of most people in DC — especially those in leadership positions. If you can prove I’m wrong, please do so. Otherwise, where this goes is likely downhill and fast, on a slope greased by the innocent.
Boycott!
Today, I plan to do all I can to avoid listening, watching, or otherwise paying any attention to the circus in DC. 25,000 troops, a fence, political vetting of the troops, and all the other trappings of a legitimate election (sarc) really have me eager to watch, not. In many ways, I consider this a day of mourning. Please join me and make their ratings tank. They will lie about it, but trust me, they will notice if the ratings tank. Tomorrow, mock and ridicule them but for today, ignore them.
What Else Can I Do?
First, I agree with Sarah A. Hoyt in this post, and several previous posts, about what steps to take. Further, I agree with her and others that I see a rather high butcher’s bill unless some of the so-called leaders of the establishment class wake up and face reality. I pray that such a day does not come, but I see no way to avoid it unless people wake up and taste reality. I do not want it, and want to do as much as possible to avoid it.
That said, what else can I do? Borrowing from others as well as my own early thoughts, there is much we can do.
First, start local. Pick the party of your choice and get active. Push out the establishment types that look down their noses at “the rabble” and put some spine into the local organization. Most of all, get involved with your local voting organization, and work to ensure free and fair elections. Notice that a lot of the problems with this last election were local (county) election boards. Yes, state boards/institutions were questionable in some cases, but what allowed them to make interesting decisions were what happened on the local level. If you take steps to make sure that the local rolls are cleaned up and maintained; that only people qualified to vote do so; eliminate vote harvesting; and, otherwise ensure a free, fair, and transparent election, you can be more sure of making a real difference on the local, state, and even national stage.
As a part of this, organize. Find others like yourself and band together. Beware of those who are not what they claim. That said, there are a lot of voters out there who are tired of the establishment politicians and the corruption. There is power in numbers. That said, consider having a cellular organization as a backup.
Second, set up means of contact and information dissemenation outside of big tech, as many as possible. Big Tech is just getting started, and will do all it can — with the help of the progressive left — to destroy alternate platforms. It may not hurt to set up cells both locally and nationally, that can pass along information using low-tech means. While I know amateur radio has been discussed as an option, read/listen to this and then think on what they can call a crime or have made into a crime. Multiple redundancies people, you can’t have enough options in place.
Third, do everything you can legally do to deprive them of your money. A company goes woke, or is woke, doesn’t need your money. Find red companies and support them. Do your business, as much possible in cash, with local small independent businesses. There are more options, take full advantage of them. Find ways to legally pay as little tax as possible. Starve them.
Fourth, ignore and ridicule. The progressive left and the incoming leadership can’t stand either, and the more you ignore and ridicule, the madder they will get. Angry people make stupid decisions, which can be used against them. Make them show their true faces and take ridiculous actions.
Fifth, prepare for the worst. Keep as much cash on hand as you can. Set up non-cash options, such as gold or other valuables, as well. Stock up on food and other supplies, suplements being but one example, and don’t make it easy for anyone to find out that you are stockpiling. Such can be seized “for the good of the people.” There are other things that need stockpiling as well — do it. As Sarah points out, famine and deliberate starvation have been used by socialists (by any other name) as a weapon against the common people as well as adversaries, every time and to good effect. Take what steps you can to avoid anything you lawfully own under current laws from being seized for any reason. Remember that bartering is an option, and should be used to full effect.
There is more, but that’s all the time I have this morning. Get involved on the local level. Ignore edicts and the propaganda, and ridicule the powerful as well as what they are trying to do. Prepare for the worst. Also, please don’t be stupid. Don’t give them a pretext by not fighting smart. Remember, use political aikido as much as possible by not being where the blow falls, and using their own efforts against them. If there is to be a butcher’s bill, let them initiate.
Some blogs I recommend, in no particular order.
More to come in future posts.