Uncategorized – Page 5 – The Laughing Wolf

Rumors Of War

I mentioned yesterday that I’m going through a lot of information. The amount of propaganda out of all sides is staggering, and the quality of some of it is amazing. It makes trying to figure out what’s real and what isn’t a challenge. Between that and some of the shitposting some people love to do it also makes it hard to spot true trends in critical propaganda.

As I noted yesterday, the Kremlin has made a crucial change in its propaganda efforts. The new focus is that Russia is really at war with NATO and the U.S., and that the Ukraine is just a proxy for the West. Admittedly they are for some reason focusing on the U.K./Commonwealth as being behind the loss of the Moskva, but stories like this (particularly the article in The Times) are going to have an effect on that and aid the Kremlin in its propaganda efforts.

If there is proof of the U.S./U.K./Other providing targeting data, show it. What this comes across as for now is salacious speculation designed to drum up audience numbers and public sentiment. Not a great idea during a time when Vladimir is both looking to blame NATO for the war, the war taking so long (along with the re-appearance of Sergei Shoigu) and make a case for escalation including the possible use of special weapons (which at least someone in the Pentagon is taking seriously).

Remember, May 9 is fast approaching and things were supposed to wrapped up with bow and pretty paper by then. There is no way Vladimir can claim any of this as a victory, and he (and his survival) demand a victory. Instead, you have reports on the losses in the Wagner Group; yet more losses of top officers here, here, here, and here; and, you have conscription of 16-year-olds (and possibly younger) to make up losses. For all that the Russian military is supposed to be HUGE, keep in mind that every flippin unit may be at least 25 precent understrength and the units that are stationed in various locations around the country are usually there for a reason, such as restive populations, propping up friendly governments, and preventing incursions from people who don’t much care for the Russians. Add to that the absolute limits on being able to move those troops given the limitations on rail and air assets (much less the pre-positioned stocks are largely useless because of corruption, see previous posts on that), and you get the conscription and the urgent call-up of the reserves (who were not necessarily reserves as we think of such).

Which may explain his apparently sudden decision to simply encircle the Azovstal plant and seal it off, rather than launch the planned assault. The ceremony, and make no mistake it was a ceremony, where he gave the order is aimed primarily at the internal audience, not external. I fear he was honest in talking about the number of Russian troops that would die in that final assault. Those troops are desperately needed elsewhere, and encircling will free up the majority of them. It also creates a very good opportunity for the use of chemical weapons since most of the Ukrainian forces (and civilians) are underground. Hope I’m wrong, but…

Now, we get to some of the real war that is going on in the Russian military. I’ve been hearing a lot about troops refusing orders, refusing to advance, etc. A while back, I speculated on Vladimir using the Chechens to replace the KGB troops that used to ensure the Soviet Army advanced. Instapundit has a link to a story on this, and there are other reports bouncing around that it has happened elsewhere. Vladimir has been using the Chechens for particularly brutal actions military and otherwise, so using them this way is a logical progression. Trust me, the Russian military is watching this and making note of it. It’s entirely possible that the Chechens are about to discover that accidents happen, from artillery hitting the wrong coordinates to crucial information not getting to the right person/place at the right time.

The fact is, there are rumors/reports/whatever that Russian officers and troops refusing to obey orders is far more widespread that is being officially acknowledged. Nor is it apparently just the conscripts and/or contract troops. If true, this is huge. Add to it that there may be slowdowns in the already screwed up logistics chain, and you get a truly messed up situation. Oh, and there are fairly well confirmed reports that “volunteer” aka conscripted troops from various previous ‘liberated’ areas (Donbas, Georgia, etc.) have not just refused orders, but deserted and returned home.

There’s more, but it would be potentially premature and irresponsible to get into it right now. What I want to look at is the great marble stone under the statue that is Vladimir on the White Horse as the noble strongman of Russkiy Mir. The media and fanbois love to portray it as a solid monolith and rave about the delicate veins that make such pretty patterns. I look at it and I see stress fractures, fractures that are growing every day.

For now, go read this article in Bloomberg and then this analysis at the Daily Mail. Now, read this, this, and this. The last two stories are about people who know that they may pay with their lives for what they have said and done. We’ve established time and time again that Vladimir is not a nice man and loves to make examples of those he regards as enemies. Go read previous pieces on Vladimir for more details. Finally, read this and note the very precise phraseology that the deaths were carried out with his pistol. There is usually a reason for such precise phraseology and it sets off alarm bells in regular Kremlin/Russia watchers. While not making the Western news (and not much in Russia either) there are others who are dying, disappearing, or being arrested on the fringe (or even deeper) of Vladimir’s inner circle.

There is every reason to believe Vladimir is purging those he considers disloyal or risks. For ten Kremlin insiders to go to Bloomberg, knowing that surveillance is not just high, but increasing, says a lot. It also says that any surveys and such that say the elites/people/other groups are behind Vladimir and still believe in him should be taken with a grain of salt. As I noted in this post, almost nobody is going to be honest, especially about Vladimir.

One of the key questions is if Vladimir realizes how bad things are in military terms, in terms of long-term impacts (if you didn’t read this the other day from Trent Telenko, read it today as it is but one facet of the potentially horrific impact on the civilian economy) outside the military, and the large and growing larger stress fractures in his support? Despite the growing thickness of the bubble around him, I suspect he does have at least a hint. Thing is, if he has that hint and knows May 9 is coming, it’s not likely to make him more circumspect. Rather, it or the full knowledge of just how bad things are likely to push his hand.

For all the yapping by various functionaries about how Russia will never use nukes except in the face of a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation, there’s one thing to keep in mind. Vladimir himself has, in various speeches and comments, declared a number of non-physical things to be existential threats to him/Russia. This has included NATO giving the Ukraine supplies and training as but one such threat. Two, Soviet and then Russian doctrine has NEVER, to the best of my knowledge, applied that caveat to the use of chemical, biological, or tactical nuclear devices. Instead it has focused on maskirova and how to prevent retaliation for using them when Soviet/Russian troops hit a roadblock so to speak.

The Ukraine has been a massive roadblock, and the Azovstal plant has become iconic as a roadblock. Add in the push to declare the military action (and in particular the loss of the Moskva since it couldn’t, just couldn’t have been the Ukraine all on its own), and the miring down of Russian military operations, as the work of NATO, and voila you have an existential threat to Russia. And, no matter what, those evil nazi Ukrainians who are preventing the majority of Ukrainians from reuniting with the Rodina must be dealt with.

I honestly hope I am reading both Vladimir and the situation wrong. The problem is, for all that he apparently does feel that he is winning, he is in a desperate position. Even if the West could somehow give him an exit that he could possibly take, he won’t take it. Without a clear and major victory, his rule is finished and he will pay with his life. This might delicately be called a desperate situation, and as I’ve noted before several times, desperate people do desperate (and stupid) things.

If he has decided to ignore May 9, we are going to see a long and brutal war. If he succeeds in dragging NATO into direct conflict, I still see it as being brutal and lasting longer than people may think given the low numbers of troops for most countries. Most of NATO has depended on the U.S. and its troops for so long that what little defense they do have is about as firm as a bucket of spit. That said, if you haven’t already done so, take a look at which countries do have a defense, and a bit of offense. It’s clear that Vladmir is setting the stage in Russian public opinion for Russia to be already at war with NATO via proxy Ukraine. This gives him a number of options military and otherwise.

If he doesn’t ignore May 9, we are almost guaranteed to see orders for the use of special weapons in the next two weeks. I do not, repeat NOT, see orders for or the use of strategic nuclear weapons except as a threat at this time. Anything done will be tactical in nature, and I see the Azovstal plant as a likely first target of chemical weapons.

Based on the steps he is taking, including making this a war with NATO, I am moving my odds on orders being given for the use of special weapons from 60/40 to 90 percent until May 9. That said, I have one final question to ask:

Will such an order be obeyed?

The Chechens? Hell yes, they would do it in a heartbeat. There is reason to believe they already have used chemical weapons. I really don’t see the Russian military turning over working nuclear weapons to the Chechens, however. Not willingly.

Russian troops? I’m not so sure. That’s one hell of a thing to have to hope for.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

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If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Huge Grain Of Salt

Over at Instapundit, Stephen Green links to an Axios piece that really is just a recitation of a release from the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences. The gist is that the economic sanctions are simply pushing the people of Russia to support Putin.

While the story he links does bring up a couple of caveats, it really downplays them with an effectively anonymous source (single). The summation of the story that any threat to Putin is years away is ludicrous.

Now, Stephen does make a good point that the Russian people are used to suffering hardship in the face of enemies. That is part of the Slavophile prototype and of propaganda for most of a century now. Stephen has been against sanctions against the Russian people from the start, and he has made some good points. The problem is, however, that sanctions against the government, as well as its leaders, are going to hit the people to some extent or another.

Sad to say, there are some good reasons to do so, to inflict pain on the people via sanctions. It can drive unrest, it can get some to question things, and it can force other changes. Will it in this case? Maybe.

Keep in mind the discussion a while back on the differences in the different generations. The younger generation does not view Russia and the world in the same way as the older/oldest generation. They are focused on career, improving their lives, and are not bound to the old models. Look at the (hundreds of) thousands of professionals who fled Russia since this began. The brain drain is enormous, and I invite you to go back and re-watch the videos I linked on Saturday that look at demographics.

Also, understand that two other factors tie into the pseudo-anonymous source that is supposedly a journalist. One, most journalists in Russia are as much state controlled as they ever were in the Soviet era. You toe the line, or else. Or else can be fleeing the country as the very brave protester/journalist who interrupted a broadcast did, or you can take a bullet to the back of the head like Anna Politkovskaya.

Two, she’s understating that dissent is crushed. People at any and all levels are scared to say anything that could be taken as not supporting the war. Or Vladimir. Or the system. You get the picture. Even the mildest of dissent gets you ostracized, or beaten. Get into real criticism, and you are likely to need a doctor, a new job, and/or a way out of the country. Keep at it, and you are dead.

The idea that anyone would trust a “journalist” or a researcher in a state-controlled institution and give them open and honest answers (even off the record) is about zero. Maybe to someone who is trusted, but even then caution is the watchword.

So, I take any “man on the street” things like this with a tun of salt, not a grain. The odds of it being propaganda/disinformatzia is almost 100 percent. Are there people who do feel as portrayed? You bet your bippie. Are there people who blame Putin and the oligarchs for the pain? Again, you bet your bippie. Are you going to find many/any of them stupid enough to say it out loud? No.

So, do I wish there were a way to punish Vladimir et al without inflicting pain on the Russian people (who I have found overall to be rather nice and even fun, though they have an outlook on life that is very different)? Yes. Does it exist? No. Will the pain turn the screws? Maybe. Is the release from the MSSES to be trusted or taken at face value? No.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

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Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

This morning’s homework is fairly easy and quick. First, go read Kamil Galeev on Vladimir’s rise to power. Then, Trent Telenko has an interesting take on cohesive teams, and some strong thoughts on the de-escalation team in the Biden administration.

If you are not reading Kamil Galeev on a regular basis, you should be. Yes, he has his own biases and a somewhat unique position and perspective on things. That doesn’t mean that he isn’t sharing a lot of good information. This morning’s read is one of many that get into Russian politics in a way that is probably too “inside baseball” for many — including our politicians and intelligence agencies — but make a fascinating and fact-filled bit of food for thought. It also drives home that it is a very different system, which makes a good reminder of the danger of mores when evaluating people and events.

Also, within that, notice some of the names. Several of them feature strongly in what is going on today, and in particular I want to point out the role of Abramovitch in Putin’s rise. There are still pieces in this tale that are missing and/or don’t make sense when it comes to that man and his actions. Those pieces have the potential to be crucial when it comes to the step after next.

It is also worth noting the mass arrests underway. To say the FSB is being purged is both accurate and potentially an understatement. The question being are they getting rid of the deadwood or is the deadwood getting rid of those who could be a threat to them? You should also pull from the homework above that past support and assistance to Vladimir gets you nothing. What matters is the here and now, and if saving his skin means sacrificing even those (formerly) close to him, well, it’s a sacrifice he will cheerfully make.

With the purge underway, it also makes the question of if there will be FSB or other special units involved with upcoming military operations in the style of what KGB special troops performed in the Soviet Army. If you weren’t familiar with them, they were the troops that made the point that if you advanced you might die; but, if you failed to advance or follow a given order, you would die. Charming people.

The first Telenko video shows not only how you do it, but the absolute failure of U.S. Intelligence, who completely missed that the Ukrainians could do it. That they could have teams that had built the absolute trust necessary for that type of operation. Pro Tip: to have that degree of target focus you have to have absolute trust in your partner/team. That doesn’t happen overnight. Following up on yesterday and comments here and at the links, do you really think any intelligence agency or analyst did even the most cursory debrief of the troops we had over there advising and training? How many other incorrect, incomplete, biased, and outdated assumptions are in our assessment of both the Ukraine and of Russia? Elsewhere? Members of Congress and others really do need to be asking some strong and pointed questions of our intelligence agencies.

As for the second Telenko link, I think he’s correct and he does have a point. However, I don’t think Vladimir will just sit by if we start supplying major weapons systems to the Ukraine. He literally can’t, and assuming (against all odds) that there is someone competent in government service, a realistic assessment of Vladimir’s options is needed before upping the ante in this way. It is the same as establishing a no-fly zone: it’s pretty much guaranteed to start WWIII on a grand scale.

I will also say that I share Telenko’s contempt for the so-called de-escalation faction in the Biden administration. The disaster that is the invasion and it’s start are on them almost as much as it was on Vladimir. Their foot dragging ultimately increased casualties on both sides, civilian and military. Their continued foot dragging is virtually guaranteed to escalate the situation. They are not serious people and they do not have a fucking clue.

I’m hoping that the Russian’s delay their new offensive for a few days longer. It’s not hard to figure out that Ukrainian logistics systems are overwhelmed. This has prevented efforts to push back on the Russians, to liberate Mariupol and get ready for the next attack on it, and to prepare in depth for the new offensive. They are doing what appears to be an amazing job, based on what I am getting. It’s just that they need supplies and help too. Since it is logistics that are ultimately going to decide things, I hope they get the support they need.

Now, every expert and armchair tactician and strategist is opining on what the Russians will do next. Let me set an example and state that while I have suspicions, I don’t have a flippin clue exactly what they will do and how. There are troop buildups that give hints, and I can offer a couple of takes on things.

I would expect to see large numbers of troops used to seize what would normally be considered small objectives. I would expect to see units used to test trying to do things differently this time. In the long term, the Russians pretty much have to take the Donbas and the Southern front and ports. They might could try to claim victory with just the Donbas (and the land bridge to the Crimea), but that will fool no one and Putin will die.

While not very professional, I have to admit I am laughing at how far behind the front lines they are unloading troops and ammo. It says volumes of their consideration of Ukrainian capabilities.

The other thing I expect to see is efforts made to prevent planting and other food production efforts over the widest area possible. If Vladimir can cut off the ability to export wheat and other products, it cuts off hard cash and the ability to buy weapons. Hence, one of the reasons (among many) to seize the ports. It also makes starvation a weapon against the Ukrainians. That is Vladimir’s focus on this tangent, though those around him might want to consider the wider context.

If you watched and read the links over the last week, it was pointed out how many areas/nations are dependent on the fertilizer/fertilizer components exported by China, Russia, and the Ukraine. It was pointed out how many areas/nations are dependent on wheat imports from the Ukraine, Russia, and elsewhere. Now, take a moment to go read this, this, and this. Now, does anyone remember what happened the last time there were shortages of wheat that didn’t rise to the potential levels we are looking at today? Bueller? Bueller?

Anyone remember Arab spring and the revolutions and unrest it sparked? What happens when it’s not just the Middle East/North Africa that’s starving?

Now there’s the scary thought. The Middle East and Africa are bad enough, but consider that while there is not likely to be starvation, you are going to be talking shortages in Europe and Asia. It is a situation that in some ways would be even more flipped up than Europe in 1914. Welcome back Carter my fuzzy fluffy rump… We should be so lucky.

Do keep in mind, the nice thing about looking into the Mirror of Galadriel is that it can show you what will happen; but, it can also show you what might happen. To be blunt, a great deal of analysis right now is looking into the Mirror. We can see what might happen, but the choices of individuals can change what happens. Remember, the so-called experts looked into the Mirror and confidently said that the Afghans would hold for six months, and the Ukrainians for 72 hours. Decisions by individuals high and low rendered that moot.

The one thing about which I have confidence is that it is going to be nasty, brutal, and bloody. If you think the special troops with the lists were busy before in torturing and executing civilians, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Especially with even some of the Russians/Russophiles in the Donbas getting cold feet. Vladimir has to go all in, he has no other choice. Buckle up.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

The Threat Horizon Expands

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Pushing The Fundraiser

My goal was to be on the move by the end of this month. Thanks to a couple of things, it is now a real possibility. If, and I stress IF, I can raise the rest of the money in the fundraiser.

One of the things making it a possibility is that we may finally have the blood pressure coming under control. Instead of me running around in the 175-189/99 (or higher) range, we have it consistently under 140/90 and may even be on track to a consistent 110 (or less)/80 range. Jury is still out on that, but it is nice to not have to worry about stroking out. At one point, before the open-heart surgery, it was well above 200/100. The only good news from all this is that I likely don’t have any aneurysms simply because if I did, they would have already blown.

Sadly, we may not get to do the cognitive therapy that we would like to do. Insurance turned down the first application for it, but there apparently was an option for the provider to appeal. Would love to do at least some of it…

I was very lucky on several fronts, particularly on the cognitive side. There was no physical damage. While there are some cognitive issues, they seem mostly to be in one area and while some of the data is scrambled, so to speak, a lot of it should shake out over the next three years. Getting on out West will help with that, since the weather changes do have an effect on more than just the body.

The warmer, dry climate will help body and mind. If you don’t want to use the GiveSendGo site, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right. Everything helps, and with your help we can push this along and get me on out of here.

Thanks!

An Update On Beating The Stun Gun

I thought I would share a bit of what I learned on Monday. First up, the good news. If I were going to manifest some of the truly bad problems like not remembering how to do things, or being unable to learn new things, it should already be manifesting. As far as we can tell, it isn’t. To say that hearing that was a relief is an understatement.

While there is no physical damage from the hit (lesions, fractures, etc.) and no pre-existing damage (same plus tumors and such), some of the data and operations have taken a hit. It seems focused in one area, and while I still clock out above average in most areas, we can see the impact in this one area in the data and in real life. I’ve been told that it will probably be about three years before the brain heals.

Meantime, they are putting together a treatment plan to submit to the insurance company and I have the start of some ways to cope with the damage to the particular area of operations. I also have some things I can be doing to hopefully get a head start on the treatment. Between that and some of the physical issues that come from what happened and the open-heart surgery, I’m having to accept that I can’t do everything I used to do. Annoying. Parts of my mind tell me I’m still 20 and can do everything I used to do at 20. The rest of my mind and my body just laugh and laugh and laugh…

So, while not perfect things are a heck of a lot better than they could be. I’m thankful the worst is ruled out and that things will get better with time and effort. Now to get started on that effort

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Two Weeks? Nah, Soon It Will Be Two Days

Conspiracy to reality went from two years to two weeks. Soon, it will be two days. Tucker lays out the latest.

Tried to get that to embed, couldn’t get it done so just linked it. Biolabs and bioweapons. Of course, the Russians know where several of the labs are since they were Soviet era labs. The others, well, that’s a different tale.

Editing to add this post by Glenn Greenwald. You really do want to read it.

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Trying To Beat The Stun Gun

When you are hit by lightning, one of the best descriptors I’ve come across (or created, not sure) is that God’s own stun gun has been fired into the motherboard of your computer. Any time you fire a stun gun into the motherboard of any computer, the results are rarely good. When you fire it into the motherboard of the currently most complex bio-electric computer in the known universe — the human brain — it can get quite problematic.

Knowing this, I pushed hard for a referral for cognitive testing. The problem was, it was booked so solid in this area that I was unable to get it until January. That said, I did go in and spend a day letting them poke and prod (figuratively) my mind and how it was operating. We had already established there was no pre-existing or current physical damage from the strike itself (at least on a gross level). Now it was time to see how the operations were going. Especially as there have been some issues.

For me, once the initial concussive effects faded, I have had some brain farts and problems remembering names among other things. It’s frustrating when I can see someone clear as day in my memories, and can’t pull their name to save my life. The brain farts have not been bad, more annoying, but are a concern. As are some of the long-term effects in survivors that can strike immediately or within a year or so: some people lose the ability to learn new things; some lose the ability to do things they’ve done for years; and, others do have personality and other changes. Really bad news from the neurologist was there is little or nothing you can do to prevent that (at least in his opinion, which also including not bothering to get up off his fat ass to try prevention).

So, I waited and actually on some levels enjoyed my day of testing. Parts of it were, on some level, fun; and, it did force me to stretch my mind a bit as it were. That said, I did get a laugh when the doc and I went over the results. Basically, based on my history and known conditions, the data tracked; based on my having had open-heart surgery, which does effect the brain and other organs, the data tracked; and, when it came to being hit by lightning, no one has a clue if the data tracks because there is essentially zero literature available. Some, but not much.

The good news is, I still clock out good (above average) in several areas, and did okay on most of the rest. The doc’s suggestion is that in two years we redo the testing to see if we can establish a baseline (and maybe generate something for the literature). If problems start before then, move things up.

That said, unlike the neurologist, she believes in being proactive. So, today I go in for some therapy to see if we can improve the areas where we know there are issues and slipping. Can’t hurt, might help, and so far the insurance is good with it, so why not. If we can do things that will get in and possibly get ahead of things, I’m all for it.

I’m putting off heading out early on errands to try to get things dried out here, and to see if a package arrives before I leave. Sadly, having to guard my room from the cats, who don’t care that I’m allergic and keep trying to get in and make themselves at home. Need the door open as I have two fans running to try to help with the water.

More to come, I may put up a post later today that I wanted to get up a week ago. Meantime:

I really need to get on out of here and out to the Southwest as soon as possible. To that end, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or do the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Thank you for taking the time to read my blog, and for all the help and prayers that have been offered. Please know they are very much appreciated.

Reason To Move #1,1xx

I had other plans for posting today, but I thought I would share this with you to explain why the planned posting may not be done to plan. Where I rent is nice in many respects, and my landlord is overall a good guy. After all, he’s run me to the ER a few times, picked me up from the hospital after surgery, and done a few other things to help me out in my new normal.

The weather is outside his control, and we got almost two inches of rain in about that amount of time. This is what I woke up to this morning, and unlike last time it got up into my room. Yes, some damage to some of my stuff, but I got off fairly lucky as far as I can tell so far. Now we have to dry out carpet and rugs and see what has to be ripped out. Joy.

Yet one more reason to get moved to the Southwest. To that end, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or do the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Thank you for taking the time to read my blog, and for all the help and prayers that have been offered. Please know they are very much appreciated.

Guest Post: The Cost of Compliance, Replacement, and Opportunity

Today finds us with another guest post by River. My apologies for it not going up sooner, but at least it is now up.

I’m going to talk about three terms, all of which are used more in accounting and financial risk assessment than in everyday life. But they are useful when looking at everyday and political risk assessment, too: compliance costs, replacement costs, and opportunity costs.

Fiscally, a cost of compliance is the measure of how much compliance with a regulation or law adds to the cost of doing business. For instance, if you have to have a license to cut hair, the cost of that license is part of the cost of compliance. But that’s not the total. There’s the time you spend filling out the request, if you have to take a class, there’s the cost of the class itself, and then’s there’s lost opportunity cost—i.e. how much could you have been making cutting hair if you weren’t taking mandatory classes, filing papers, and dealing with the bureaucracy that demands all that.

We in the U.S. have accepted vast amounts of lost opportunity costs over the last hundred years or so, in the interests of just getting along. What we’ve received in return is arguably less security, fewer choices, and a grotesquely bloated government at every level.

The reason why the future looked so bright in the 1950s—flying cars! Exploitation of the Solar System!–was because we had every right to expect the pace of change to continue as it had been going. But the insidious income tax and ever-growing regulatory burden from unelected bureaucrats have worked their dark magic, sapping our national will, and creating at this point nearly impossibly heavy self-inflicted burdens.

Others have written about the utter lack of scientific support for the utility of masking to prevent virus transmission (not just COVID, but any virus), and indeed the support for the idea that masking is actively dangerous in many cases. But it’s not the science I want to discuss—it’s that habit of going along to get along that is being fostered by the federal and many state and local governments.

A blogger, whose name I’ve sadly forgotten now, put it very well recently—the habit of compliance is exactly what led to the “Good German” in Nazi Germany. We have history that is within living memory to show us this is what happens. Why? Is it possible to come to any conclusion other than we are being trained to comply with government orders that make no sense? And that we are being divided deliberately along those lines—people who will comply and those who refuse to?

But there is a moral cost of compliance, too. Every time we acquiesce to rules we know make no sense we lose a bit of our center, we lose our ability to argue for the things we know are right. We are aware we have no high ground from which to fight.

And what is being offered to replace the constitutional republic form of government that made America great? We know now that a socialist form is opening advocated for. We also know, from history, and as outlined so eloquently in The Road to Serfdom, that socialism inevitably morphs into totalitarianism, the victim of its own internal logic. Is that an acceptable replacement?

Similarly, the road to socialism goes through our cultural institutions: it requires the destruction of our Judeo-Christian traditions and belief structures, it requires the destruction of the nuclear family, and it requires the destruction of voluntary civic institutions. Until it was pointed out as damning, the destruction of the family was proudly listed as one of the goals of the national Black Lives Matters on its web page. Churches have been infiltrated and have replaced religious virtue for “woke” values. The undermining of civic institutions has been a result of lost opportunities—if your taxes are so high that a family requires two wage earners, we lose the time and energy that could otherwise be spent on activities of choice. And so many Americans chose to improve their communities!

These goals are not being hidden by the socialists controlling our tax dollars. But are the replacements they are positing better? I can’t see any measure—the most important of which is welfare of our children—that they are. The costs of complying with these demands is simply too high. We have to stop paying them.

Once again, my thanks to River for another excellent bite of food for thought.

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Vladimir and the Ukraine

Some quick thoughts to share, and we will get the big ones out the way first. Should we send U.S. troops: NO! Do I like Vladimir? No, though I have had professional respect for him in some areas, and personal in one. If you are not mature enough to differentiate between respecting someone and liking them, bugger off.

My heart bleeds for the Ukraine, and I’m moved by the willingness of its people to resist the invasion. To watch those who now live elsewhere, or are the children/grandchildren/etc. of those who immigrated return to defend it is amazing. What they have accomplished in resisting the invasion is nothing short of amazing. We should do all we can to support their efforts. Governmentally, this means sending them all the anti-tank, anti-air, and other arms and ammunition they so desperately need. It means providing humanitarian aid via public/private means. It does not mean providing troops on any level. That would be the worst thing we could do. On multiple levels.

That said, I have no problem with allowing U.S. Citizens to go there and fight. To join the Ukrainian Foreign Legion that has been proposed. In fact, I’m reminded of something the late (and much missed) L. Neil Smith wrote in one of his books, about an American staunchly opposing the U.S. taking a stance in a European conflict, and then leading a 1,000 airship volunteer armada to do just that. It is the difference between official action and non-official action, and is something we haven’t done much with since the Spanish Civil War. While that is a bag of worms for another day (and a nasty bag it is), we must not get sucked into this on an official level.

A good bit of that has to do with the rather obvious mental deterioration in one Vladimir Putin. It’s been obvious for a while that something was off with him. Multiple parties are talking about it now, but what brought it home for me was his meeting with Macron at the ultra-long table. While this was, no doubt, in part a way of snubbing him, there was something more to it. Then came the night he castigated a major cabinet member of live television — not a bright thing to do in the current return to the politburo level of operations. Then came is tirade against the Ukraine and justification for his actions. That was when a LOT of people began comparing notes and sharing concern over his mental well being. When the photo came out of him using the ridiculously long table to meet with his own defense leaders, well… While unconfirmed, it seems he doesn’t like to have anyone who is not part of his innermost circle behind him these days, or to let any such even close to him. Given that he is quite familiar with concealed weapons that can induce apparent heart attacks, much less spray nerve agents, the close thing is understandable. As for behind him, he is also quite familiar with leadership at various levels committing suicide by shooting themselves in the back multiple times.

In about three weeks, we’ve seen a Vladimir who was “off” go from chess to raising on a busted flush in something that is well beyond “off.” The nuclear escalation is not exactly unexpected, at least if you know a bit about the Soviet playbook for such things. What matters is if he still has full control, and/or the extent to which Dead Hand has been brought online. All I will say is that if his ability to give certain orders has been unofficially curtailed, it would not be the first time. If it hasn’t, it is not a good idea to poke the crazy man with the button via official actions.

And there are a lot of official actions out there that are not going to help in regards the deteriorating man. Among others is Switzerland deciding that they are neutral, but not that neutral. Add to it firm allies who have told him no, even after he just helped them out literally a few weeks ago… Even Xi has said no on some fronts. None of this is likely to slow down the deterioration. Or provide enough of a reality check to get through to him as he rages in his bunker with his captive oligarchs.

And while we are at it, let’s look at the attack itself and the absolute fuck up that it, and subsequent actions by STAVKA (call it what it is), truly are. It was billed as a demonstration of the new Russian way of war, their version of “Shock and Awe.” Problem is, S&A or any other form of blitz is heavily dependent upon superior logistics, something the Soviets nor the Russians have ever had. You need massive amounts of ammo, fuel, parts, and replacement troops to pull it off. Replacement troops not only because of losses, but the need to detail out troops to hold key points as you go. It also requires highly trained troops who know land nav inside and out.

From what I am learning, the order went out to make this happen. The actual order, however, may not have even approached what would be given for a small-unit special ops strike. Contingency plans? Decap. No? Then try for decap again. Decap. Decap. Try it again damnit! There are differing reports on the number of Wagner troops killed or captured, but a good number were sent in on assassination missions. They were not alone. Problem was, they were all alone as the original push down got bogged down; the efforts to do airmobile and airborne ops were shot down (literally in some cases); and, the public is now on high alert to the saboteurs and assassins roaming major cities trying to mark targets, etc. Don’t expect rules of war for those caught marking civilian buildings for strikes. For now, expect a return to grinding Soviet bombardment, civilian casualties be damned.

The fact is, Vladimir has already lost simply because he didn’t win. He is committed, and is committing Russia and all its people, to a long, grinding, bloody slog that is going to have severe economic impacts. Just replacing ammunition, gear, people, is going to have a severe impact. Add to it the growing official and unofficial sanctions? The Russian people are going to feel this one, in ways they never have before. Current Vladimir does not care. He’s lost to that. He has no way to go in and control the country, or even the parts he’s tried so desperately to annex. Even those are likely to slip from him given the current state of “uppitiness” on the part of the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians have not won. At best they have pushed things into a long grind with some chance of a stalemate. Yet, by doing this they have won. They have prevented the cheap and easy victory on which Vladimir counted. They have forced him into committing military and economic resources he does not have over the long term. Heck, even the short term. Russia’s economy was already teetering, current operations and responses are going to crater it unless something major happens. I’ve lived through a couple of power struggles in the Kremlin; under these circumstances, I hope we all do live through what is to come. A quick clean change of leadership seems unlikely given the Keystone gang we’ve seen so far, but it may be our best hope.

All we can do is wait and see what happens. While current circumstances are not new or unique on many levels, I will note that in my lifetime I’ve never seen a situation like this where key leadership was this insecure. Xi is in some ways hanging by a thread, and knows his enemies in the CCP are looking for any excuse to bring him down. Vladimir we’ve discussed. The Europeans, particularly the Germans? They are not secure either, especially since the Green policies have caused them to firmly place their mouth around Putin’s, er, finger, in regards energy. To see them decide to fund their own military, back off on the idiocy of green (maybe), and truly support the Ukraine strikes more as a desperation move than a rational push. Johnson is a non-entity right now, and not to be taken seriously. Our own dementia patient? Hell, he’s just waiting for his ice cream and to be allowed to go back upstairs to watch Matlock. Those behind him, however, are desperate beyond belief. Not one major stable leader anywhere in the world. That’s a new one and I thought I had about seen it all after watching the Soviets/Russians for more than 40 years now.

Oh, for those still focused on the opening paragraph and gasping with indignation that I have had some respect for Vladimir (at least in some areas)? The one personal area was with food, as it was through him (though he didn’t know it) that I tried his favorite restaurant in St. Petersburg. It became my favorite too. Too bad I’ll never get back there again in this lifetime. Oh well, I’d rather find something better in the Ukraine anyways.

If you like what you are reading, hope you might help me out. You can hit the tip jar in the upper right, or I’m also working on A New Life. Thanks.