Month: April 2022

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

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If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Monday Morning Quick Brief

The Cognitive folks have gotten my insurance to sign off on some therapy to try to help deal with the areas that got a bit scrambled by the lightning strike, so am off to that as soon as I get the snow cleared off my car. Please, donate to the fundraiser as I do the equivalent of a Bugs Bunny “Get me out of here!!!” I may also be going to follow-up on some other medical items. Will see.

Vladimir is continuing to rattle his nukes to engender a ‘Let Vladimir Win’ mindset elsewhere. Keep in mind he threatens nukes for many things, including appearing to breathe heavily near or at him. It may be working in DC (sadly), but I’m finding it surprising how little reaction (other than derision) it’s getting in Europe and Scandinavia. Again, a sign of how far the perceptions of Russia and Vladimir have fallen.

This article looks at several of Vladimir’s ‘Hail Mary’ options, including some naval I want to take a closer look at soon. Not onboard, though I will remind you that I pointed out a while back that you haven’t yet seen true brutality until Dvornikov gets going. It’s his stock in trade, and I suspect the increased use of missiles in the last few days is part of his handiwork. He may not be very good at killing dispersed troops, but he’s hell on wheels with women and children.

Trent Telenko raises a good point about artillery and ammunition in this thread. I agree whole-heartedly that we need to sit back, take a fresh look, and start over on pretty much every assessment about the Russian military that’s more than a couple of days old. Noticing that we are still relying on information and operational assumptions from the Carter and Reagan years. That’s not good.

Which is why I fully agree with Trent Telenko about the massive failure of almost every major intelligence agency (and quite a few of the minor) over the last few years. Afghanistan was a complete miss despite the large number of assets, penetration, and technical means. Ukraine is the same, with the 2012 and 2014 mindsets missing every bit of the changes from 2016 onwards. Russia? Got to agree with Trent: the novel would have hit the trash here too, simply because while it was clear that the kleptocracy was having an impact, I had no idea how bad it truly was.

I admit it, and I’m old enough to remember that both sides may have used padlocks and chains as PIDs on some tactical, or that some of the Soviet tactical weapons were stored on straw to protect them. The nomenclature has changed, but some other things haven’t. If even half of what is starting to come out is true… Not just nuclear, but almost every aspect of the military and even into aspects of civil.

I’m still not sold on Trent’s idea about PMCs. I agree it should work, but I am also not sure it is a good idea, yet.

More soon I’m sure. Meantime, I’ve got to clear snow off the car (!!) and head out. Be safe.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

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Honest Question

Given all we have learned about Russian Army, Navy, and Air Force maintenance, what makes anyone think their nuclear maintenance is going to be any better?

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Uncertainty And Preparation

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Uncertainty And Preparation

Not much to say about the Ukraine situation today. The Russians are building up forces and supplies, but exactly when, where, and how they kick off remains to be seen. Trying to run down some information, but it’s not exactly like you can call someone up and say ‘Joeski, were those chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons you were loading?’ It’s not something where you could go into the deep/dark web for the modern equivalent of a dead letter drop. There does appear to be some validity to the charge that the Moskva was carrying at least two nuclear weapons, but it is not absolutely positively beyond-all-doubt confirmed. Just mostly confirmed.

If the pointers continue to point in a particular direction, I’m going to be amending my 60/40 odds. In fact, I’m likely to move it substantially higher.

I am laughing a bit at Vladimir getting called out about putting nukes into the Baltic. At least one government has pointed out that he already has them there, and asks if he’s going to send more? The loss of prestige and fear of the Russian bear is being clearly demonstrated.

In response to the question of what I would recommend stocking up on right now, I would say this. I think you should already have some stocks of food and other supplies in place. Given what we are seeing on U.S. winter wheat as well as problems world-wide, I’ve picked up some pasta and flour even though I do keto. I would also look at things like baking chocolate, tea, coffee — the things that come from areas that are likely to be hit hard by shortages and famine, and have to be transported by ship to get here. If you use a supplement(s) that depends on overseas production or raw ingredients, stock up. Same on spices. There’s no need to panic, but if you can flesh out your grocery list so that you are set at need.

Meantime, I’m going to continue to see what I can find out, what turns up, and hope that nothing blows up this weekend.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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Health Update

As much as I would like to be moving West by the end of the month, I just don’t see it happening. Then again, it may be for the best in that the people who’ve been checking on my cognitive ability have talked my insurance company into covering some therapy designed to help me deal with some of the cognitive issues.

As I’ve said before, I’m incredibly lucky and there was no physical damage to the brain. Most elements of cognition are clicking away nicely. That said, there are some issues that stem from the fact that while there was no physical damage, there was what might be viewed as data scrambling. Hardly surprising given that God’s own stun gun got fired into the motherboard of the bioelectrical computer that is my brain and central nervous system. I’ve been told it will take about three years for everything to settle down.

Meantime, the therapy should help and if nothing else will help me develop coping mechanisms for the effects. I’m already using notes and lists, and that needs to be expanded and refined. I’ll admit it is frustrating to reach for a memory or bit of knowledge, and not be able to find it. It’s even more frustrating to catch oneself “jumping tracks” a bit. For one example, while driving for the fasting blood draw the other morning I caught myself starting to go to the wrong doctor/lab. In my defense, they are all near each other so no major issue but still…

I need to get back to regular exercise, but that’s easier said than done. If the weather is nice I’m going to try to start walking around the neighborhood. That said, we had snow flurries last Saturday so the good weather is problematic.

I also want to take the time to thank all of you who have donated, offered prayers, and offered other support and encouragement. It has not been a fun or easy path, and I’ve not enjoyed being out of work for so long. If not for all of you and your support, I don’t know what would have happened.

To finish with some good news, we may finally be getting the blood pressure under control. I know I’ve talked about that before, but we are now down into the 12X/13X over 7X/8X range rather than 180/190/higher over 9X/1XX. Not where it needs to be, but a LOT better than it was. Almost nine months at the latter is more than long enough. If we can get it down a bit further, it will help with a lot of things including stamina.

Again, my thanks to you for your help and support. With your help, maybe May will be the month for moving out West.

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Retribution Inbound

I mentioned yesterday that there would have to be a military response to the loss of the Moskva. After all, it was far more than just the flagship of the Black Sea fleet. It was, in many ways, the symbol of the Navy and modern Russia. It was the site of state visits and ceremonial occasions.

Back during the Reagan administration, I offended some DC-types (one of many times) by pointing out that if you viewed countries as toddlers, you got a much better idea of what they would do, how, and when than off of computer models. After all, computer models suffer from the GIGO law (garbage in, garbage out) and our models have been full of garbage far longer than Trent Telenko covers in this excellent post. More on the corruption of intelligence later, but it has been corrupted for decades.

The toddler model has been accurate more than 99 percent of the time. Just apply the so-called toddler laws and typical actions of toddlers, and it is scary just how accurate it is in predicting the actions of a nation. No, this is not saying that the leaders of the country (or countries) are toddlers or are of that intellectual level (though some have been, and are now I suspect). In fact, I’ve met some political and other leaders who were some of the sharpest people out there. The problem is that the individuals are not the nation, and they have to act as that nation with all the pride, possessiveness, and outrage that arise during crisis. Just think of the toddler who gets hit, or has their toy taken, and how they will either run and cry, or puff up and go after the culprit.

I bring this up because right now, Vladimir is going to have to retaliate for the loss of the Moskva. Pride (and desperation) leave him no choice. It is going to have to be big, for this was a big loss.

That said, if they were going to be smart about it, they would do something to help shape the battlespace in the East or possibly the South to preempt the Ukrainians from taking advantage of how the loss of the Moskva puts the South into play. They will also not say that the Ukraine sank the ship; rather, they should say ‘since they want to take credit for the loss, they should pay as if they had’ things. Not betting on smart though.

That would be smart. Yet, there is going to be a lot of push to hit something as symbolic for the Ukrainians as the Moskva was for the Russians. Kyiv? A person or group of people? It is going to have to be big, powerful, and ugly otherwise it is yet another failure for Vladimir.

Despite what many seem to think, there are serious cracks in the foundation of his rule. In fact, it almost has the appearance of a safety-glass window that is shattered but not yet fallen out of the frame… He can still hold things together, but it is taking a good bit of effort. Too many more surprises, however, and it will shatter. In that case, I have doubts that anyone replacing him will be an improvement.

All that said, he is going to have to retaliate. It is going to have to be big and nasty. His conventional forces, particularly the Army, can’t be guaranteed to give him what he needs. So, how will he strike back, when will he strike back, and where will he strike back? All good questions without a good (or pleasant) answer.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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The Moskva

Updated. See below.

Right now, the only things known with any certainty are that the Moskva (Moscow) is abandoned and burning. Given that there is a storm as well makes life interesting for the Russian Navy and for efforts to get any commercial overhead imagery.

The Russians claim that there was a fire onboard, and that the fire caused ammunition to explode. That the Russian Navy has quite the reputation for fires and explosions on its ships and submarines is a given. They’ve even had the issue pop up in land-based storage bunkers as well. Seems to be a split between faulty ammunition/propellants and people sneaking off to smoke or do other things in places they shouldn’t. The latter should be taken with some salt, as often the easiest thing to do (and it’s not limited to the Russian Navy, cough, cough) is to blame the dead to hide the real problems. To that end, the homework of the day is to read this from Trent Telenko.

I’m finding the Ukrainian response amusing. Elements of the Ukrainian government have claimed credit for the kill (and trust me, this is a hard kill even if it doesn’t sink). They claim two Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles were fired at the ship, which may also have been harassed by a drone to distract the crew ahead of the missiles. Zelensky seems to have stopped short of taking credit, instead joking that maybe a couple of sailors were smoking where they shouldn’t, or that some of the other things the Russian Navy has used for excuses in the past took place. Epic, and I do mean EPIC, trolling.

Even if Vladimir tries to blame the loss on the U.S. or NATO, the loss of the Moskva is going to be gutting to Russian morale. On the one hand, you have the government saying ‘Hey, we had yet another fire and explosion, oops.’ On the other, you have the Ukrainians getting a huge morale boost even if the Russians continue to deny they hit it.

Operationally, Black Sea fleet ops have taken a major hit. This was their flagship, and it also had an impact on land operations by the Ukrainians since it could hit ground and air targets a fair distance inland. If the Ukrainians did indeed hit it as part of battlespace preparation, it was a brilliant move. They now can use air assets in regions previously denied; they’ve eliminated a good chunk of naval fire support for Russian ground troops; they’ve hampered naval operations which may let them do a bit more at sea; and, they’ve hammered Russian civilian and military morale even as they’ve boosted their own. This is only going to accelerate some of the issues with Russian contract and conscript troops who are voting with their feet as it were.

This is going to reshape Southern operations. The Ukrainians have just gained strategic and tactical flexibility previously denied. The Russian troops have just lost the assurance of naval support. Both sides are going to be rethinking operations and changing deployments accordingly. While this looks to be a good thing for the Ukrainians, it could also put the Russian Private Military Contractor (PMC) troops and troops from other countries, into a position where the use of chemical weapons is likely to increase. Right now, I’m agnostic on if they have already been used and am waiting for better data before drawing any conclusions. It would not, however, in any way be surprising if they had done so. While this will also reshape Eastern operations, the largest impact will be on the South.

Finally, this is a hard kill. The ability to return it to service anytime soon is about zero. Think about what happened to the USS Bonhomme Richard. Damage to the structure of the ship is going to be extensive, particularly since the crew had to abandon ship. There are reports that counterflooding was used, which also adds to the structural damage and the need to clean, neutralize the corrosion, and repair those areas. Even if the damage were minimal, and there is no reason to believe it is, you are still talking weeks to months in dry dock.

As with the Bonhomme Richard, the odds are that even if it survives enough to be towed to port, it will be cheaper and easier to rebuild it rather than try to repair it. Which brings up the fact that the Russians may not be able to do that either. Between a lack of skilled workers, the metals and parts, the need for machinery that may not be operational because of the sanctions, and the corruption that is modern Russia, I’m not sure they can rebuild it. Even if Putin or his successor makes it a Hero Project to keep the normal graft at bay.

As a complete aside, I’m tempted to start a pool on when and if Vladimir was told about this. Given that he (and Xi) have in the past literally shot the messenger (to be fair and accurate, had them shot), you know that no one wanted to be the one to tell him. I’m just about willing to bet that the first notification was couched in as positive terms as possible (small fire Comrade, they have it out soon!). I’m also wondering what he will say about it, as he will HAVE to say something about it, if only to try to minimize the hit to morale. Which also brings up what Vladimir is ultimately told, as that will affect both what he says and any military response. And, yes, you can pretty much count on some form of military response even if he goes with the ‘accident on board’ route and denies the Ukraine did anything.

Keep in mind, Vladmir is in a bubble, where the rule is only tell him what he wants to hear. Bad things happen to those who don’t do that. Such only makes the bubble thicker and larger as those closest to him also are not told what they don’t want to hear or have get to Vladimir.

His response will be interesting. It will also likely tell us a great deal about what he was told. One can only hope that he doesn’t decide to roll the dice again on the basis of losing the Moskva. Again (and again) desperate people do stupid things.

UPDATE: It is now confirmed. The Moscow is now the latest destination for glass-bottom boat tours.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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Light Posting?

If there is any posting beyond this, it is likely going to be lite. First, there are not a lot of new developments in the Ukraine. Second, I’m taking the time to try to sift through some things there and with some of the ag issues. Third, we are going to have a day of storms, and the storms do me bad. Yes, that means it can and does affect cognition. I live by lists and notes as it is, days like today push that. It also doesn’t help that I had to be at a lab before dawn for a fasting blood draw. The only redeeming part of that is that I got to have breakfast at a nice little place a vampire recommended to me a while back.

So, there may be more later but I make no promises. Especially as if we are being hit by storms I tend not to be on the computer, away from windows, etc. Yes, getting hit by lightning has, finally some may argue, taught me a bit of caution.

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Be Impossible

I admit that I am highly improbable. My surviving childhood was improbable. My survival this last year is equally improbable. All the more reason we should all be impossible. What she says.

Huge Grain Of Salt

Over at Instapundit, Stephen Green links to an Axios piece that really is just a recitation of a release from the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences. The gist is that the economic sanctions are simply pushing the people of Russia to support Putin.

While the story he links does bring up a couple of caveats, it really downplays them with an effectively anonymous source (single). The summation of the story that any threat to Putin is years away is ludicrous.

Now, Stephen does make a good point that the Russian people are used to suffering hardship in the face of enemies. That is part of the Slavophile prototype and of propaganda for most of a century now. Stephen has been against sanctions against the Russian people from the start, and he has made some good points. The problem is, however, that sanctions against the government, as well as its leaders, are going to hit the people to some extent or another.

Sad to say, there are some good reasons to do so, to inflict pain on the people via sanctions. It can drive unrest, it can get some to question things, and it can force other changes. Will it in this case? Maybe.

Keep in mind the discussion a while back on the differences in the different generations. The younger generation does not view Russia and the world in the same way as the older/oldest generation. They are focused on career, improving their lives, and are not bound to the old models. Look at the (hundreds of) thousands of professionals who fled Russia since this began. The brain drain is enormous, and I invite you to go back and re-watch the videos I linked on Saturday that look at demographics.

Also, understand that two other factors tie into the pseudo-anonymous source that is supposedly a journalist. One, most journalists in Russia are as much state controlled as they ever were in the Soviet era. You toe the line, or else. Or else can be fleeing the country as the very brave protester/journalist who interrupted a broadcast did, or you can take a bullet to the back of the head like Anna Politkovskaya.

Two, she’s understating that dissent is crushed. People at any and all levels are scared to say anything that could be taken as not supporting the war. Or Vladimir. Or the system. You get the picture. Even the mildest of dissent gets you ostracized, or beaten. Get into real criticism, and you are likely to need a doctor, a new job, and/or a way out of the country. Keep at it, and you are dead.

The idea that anyone would trust a “journalist” or a researcher in a state-controlled institution and give them open and honest answers (even off the record) is about zero. Maybe to someone who is trusted, but even then caution is the watchword.

So, I take any “man on the street” things like this with a tun of salt, not a grain. The odds of it being propaganda/disinformatzia is almost 100 percent. Are there people who do feel as portrayed? You bet your bippie. Are there people who blame Putin and the oligarchs for the pain? Again, you bet your bippie. Are you going to find many/any of them stupid enough to say it out loud? No.

So, do I wish there were a way to punish Vladimir et al without inflicting pain on the Russian people (who I have found overall to be rather nice and even fun, though they have an outlook on life that is very different)? Yes. Does it exist? No. Will the pain turn the screws? Maybe. Is the release from the MSSES to be trusted or taken at face value? No.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine