Enjoy.
Wolf Wednesday
My Personal Defcon Listing
In a previous post on the coronavirus I made reference to going from concerned to worried. My mind, not working like most people’s, remembered the excellent comedy piece on other nations alert status that was allegedly done by John Cleese. With that, I realized I did have my own version.
DEFCON 5: The Dude Abides All is right and good in the world, pull up a chair, sit down, have a beverage of your choice and light up a cigar/pipe/whatever. Chill dude, all is good.
DEFCON 4: Sit Up Something is going on, time to sit up, pay attention, and perhaps even make some contingency plans.
DEFCON 3: Really?!? Are you really trying to pull that? Are you going to make me dig into things, respond to things, and/or otherwise take action?
DEFCON 2: A Bit Miffed Well above peeved, I’m alert, ready, and will take what actions are required though I will do what I can to de-escalate things if I can and if it is the right thing to do.
Defcon 1: Welcome To Scotland.
It’s on. I can make it as personal as the above, or we can go larger scale if needed.
Thought I would share a bit of humor (such as it is) today as I think we all could use a bit of a laugh.
VDH On The Deep State
Yes, it is a long article but well worth the read. There is more than a little food for thought there; indeed, there is a banquet. Go forth and read. Hat Tip to Instapundit.
Coronavirus Update
Again, I have to start by saying there is no need to panic (yet) if you are in the United States. Running around in a mask and/or exposure suits is not helpful or smart, nor is making a “joke” and saying you have it: both types of things just point out that you are a dumbass.
Is there reason to worry? Yes. Now that even the WHO is reported as saying that there are likely more than 100,000 cases (mostly in China), it provides some validation to this study, this study, and this study.
As I’ve said before, the Chinese government has lied from the start about the disease and how bad it is. Read this article about what is coming out of China, and this article by Rod Dreher. The last also brings up two things that you do need to know about, along with some heartbreaking information from inside China.
The first is that the medical gear/drug shortage in China is not just a Chinese problem. It is also a problem here, in that there are already shortages here. It is going to get worse before it gets better. A number of people have argued for some time that it was not a good idea to become so heavily dependent on China for medicines and medical gear [not to mention electronics (including efforts to make us dependent upon them for military electronics) along with other finished products and raw goods]. Using regulation and other tactics to push things overseas was seen as a positive foreign policy in regards China and trying to control it. I would call it what I think of that policy, but am trying to some degree to keep this PG-13. Is this all going to have an impact on the US, Chinese, and global economies? Yep.
The second thing was a twitter link that Rod added to the article. I pulled up the source site for the graphic, and found it interesting to look at China and compare it to the interactive graphic from Johns Hopkins I’ve been linking to on a regular basis. I’m still playing with the data a bit, but I do find the correlation between high sulfur dioxide levels coming out of the cities with known high contagion rates interesting. Yes, it does appear to suggest that crematoriums are working overtime. And possibly in areas where there are no official cases…
If the models are correct, and if even the current official reports from China are correct, it appears that 2019-nCoV is more contagious than originally thought (hoped). The death rate, based on official figures, is approaching five percent however. If the unofficial reports coming out of China are correct, it is potentially much higher.
I wish the travel restrictions had been implemented much sooner. Then, you might not be reading about new cases in England and elsewhere, and the efforts to locate and test everyone those tourists contacted/interacted with during their trip. If the current restrictions and quarantines had been implemented even a week sooner, it would have taken thousands of potential transmission opportunities off the board. This article from Scientific American looks at some possibilities that are not good.
For all that I trust the WHO about as much as I do the Chinese government, they have daily situation updates that are a resource as you monitor what is going on.
So, should you panic? No. Should you be concerned? Yes. What is going on worries me, which on my personal defcon levels is a step above concerned. What am I doing? I’m watching, reading, and researching. Yes, I have started beefing up some of my normal levels of preparedness. If nothing happens, what I’ve gotten will get eaten, used, etc. in the normal course of life. More on preparedness later.
Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:
Start The Weekend
There is a lot going on out there to cover. More than I have time to do this morning. It will be a couple of weeks before we even start to having answers to the initial questions about 2019-nCoV. By then, we have a lot more questions, but only time will tell. Safe bet is that the real number of cases, and deaths, is much higher than being reported.
There are a couple of bills in Congress that need to be stepped on hard and fast. One would make the recent California law on self-employment/contract employment nationwide, despite the nuclear disaster it is already shown to be in California. The other is a so-called justice reform bill that would make the current NY law on reform — the one that has already resulted in murders and other mayhem — look tame.
There is a lot to get worked up about. That said, don’t.
Today, take the time to commit a random act of kindness, and perhaps also a random act of beauty. Share something good about the world. Let the legacy media have a relentless focus on negativity; let those free in mind and spirit take the higher ground.
A Preparedness Day
I may or may not be able to get the planned post up, thanks to some very uncertain weather. Depending on which forecast or model one goes to, we could see snow, sleet, freezing rain, or hamsters. Well, maybe not the latter but it is going to be a bad day to be out driving. No choice, so out I go.
But, I am prepared. Earlier this morning, I went out and salted our driveway. This was done using a small spreader that is used for a rotating variety of tasks throughout the year. I’m about to go check it again in a few minutes. No real ice buildup, so far, but why take chances and if we do end up getting almost an inch of snow, the ice melt will also help deal with it — which reduces how much shoveling or plowing I get to do.
My vehicle has not only de-ice fluid in the wiper washer, I also have a small hand-held pressure sprayer filled with the same stuff. One, wiper-washers can get iffy when very cold and ice is involved. Two, I can use it on any and all windows, to help cut down on the scraping and the time I’m out in the cold and whatever is falling.
Finally, my vehicle has good tires, antifreeze, oil, and other basic maintenance done. It also has tools and things I could need should I get stuck so that I can — on my own or with help — get myself unstuck. If I can’t? Well, there’s preparations for that as well.
More in a bit, I hope. Oh, and yes, I am an Amazon Affiliate and if you click the links and buy something, I may (one day) earn enough to actually get some money that way.
Wolf Wednesday
A bit late, but better than never.
Be Prepared
Two simple words. Yet, words that can and have had tremendous impact on myself and others. I came to embrace them as a Boy Scout, and have found over the years that preparedness always, always pays.
The media likes to portray all who prepare as poorly educated nuts preparing to fight off the government. Yes, there are nuts just like that, but most who prepare are simply being prudent. Keep in mind that almost every household has at least some, occasionally small, start at preparedness.
We keep bandaids just in case. Preparedness. We have batteries for toys and more serious things. Preparedness. Some of us have multiple lighters, and even matches, in case we need to light a cigar or a candle. Preparedness. Most households have cans of food in the pantry and things to eat in the refrigerator that can feed us for several days. Preparedness.
The degree of preparedness taken is up to the individual. Given where I live, I tend to keep 3-5 days of food, water, medicines, and basic supplies simply because we get ice, snow, tornadoes and damaging winds, and even the occasional (small, thankfully) earthquake over the course of a year. In short, there are things that can happen that could trap me in my home for a day or three. If so, I have what I need to survive in style.
If there is something else happening — civil unrest, terrorist attack, epidemic, major earthquake — I have the means to quickly up my level of preparedness. I can and will fill emergency containers with water while it lasts. I have several tanks of propane for the grill (actually my landlord’s grill), burner (closest I can find to what I have), and smoker, and they provide one means of cooking food at need. Another is a portable chef’s stove (note: link similar to mine) I’ve used for years at events, for which I keep a reserve of butane.
And, yes, I am an Amazon Affiliate and if you use those links and buy something I may one day finally earn enough to get paid.
Note something with the above. These are all things that I use on a regular basis. They are things many people have. Preparedness isn’t about getting things you never use except in an emergency, at it’s core it’s about making the most of what you already have or are likely to get to improve your life. Yes, there are some things that you may not use except in an emergency, but most have everyday uses.
A good example, and an good example of preparedness paying comes from collapsable water containers. This one is great for camping or backpacking; this one for camping; this one is very good for emergencies (and this one is double the use) but may have other uses. Don’t backpack or camp? Keep one in the car.
Why keep one in the car? A number of years ago, some people I knew had a hose rupture on their car as they were on a remote section of interstate. Using materials they had on hand for an emergency, they fashioned a patch for the hose that would hold until they could reach an exit where they could replace the hose. They then took a collapsable water container down to a nearby creek and filled it up. With that, they refilled the radiator so that they could drive the car. The state trooper who stopped to check on them just as they were finishing up was shocked and pleased with what they had done.
Note also that they avoided being stranded for hours or longer, avoided a major towing bill, avoided having to be towed to a mechanic they did not know and had no choice about, and avoided their car being further damaged by unsafe operation. They were, for about $20 worth of preparation, able to safely drive to a location where they could safely obtain a new hose and put it on/have it put on with only relatively minor inconvenience.
Does the fact that there is an almost infinite list of disasters keep you from preparing? If so, take heart. While the list of potential disasters is indeed almost infinite, the list of types of damage boils down to a total of three: People, Places, Things.
In the days ahead, we are going to explore these topics. My goal is to introduce you to practical preparedness and help you disaster-proof your life as much as possible.
Quick Update
Sorry, work has had me hopping, but hope to get back to more regular posting tomorrow. Keep an open mind, and remember that good preparedness always pays off.
This paper has created a lot of controversy, with scientists of varying stripes jumping in to say it is trash or that they may have something. Things hit in threes it seems, as on top of swine flu and coronavirus, China now has a new outbreak of bird flu. Rare occasion that I link the NY Slimes, but good article on this becoming a pandemic. Some good food for thought on transmission.
Why Should You Be Prepared?
Because your government is not in many cases. In fact, depending on where you live, to call what passes for disaster preparedness as preparedness is on par with calling prostitution virginity.
Here is a report (and more) on global health security that you really should read, or at least skim. While the US rates high, my own opinion is that there is still room for improvement on this topic and on many others.
As before, here is a page at Johns Hopkins that includes a very good interactive graphic that allows you to display current data on 2019-nCoV.
More soon.