Category: Current Events

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

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If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Saturday Update

In terms of my previous comments on maskirova and what we might see before Vladimir goes nuclear, I’m noting with interest the attack on the fuel depot in Russia. Russia blames it on the Ukraine. The Ukraine swears they didn’t do it. Interesting. If we see an escalating pattern of such attacks, odds are it is maskirova and Vladimir is going to up the ante one way or many ways.

In the least surprising move, Roscosmos has announced it is stopping cooperative efforts with the West, including on the ISS. The only people this might surprise are a few at 300 E Street who’ve had their fingers in their ears and have been humming for all they are worth.

Given the problems with the Russian module that went up recently, I’m not sure it is a loss. Even without that, it still may not be all that much of a loss. If NASA will accept Elon’s help, they may find themselves in a far better position. If Jeff Bezos will actually get around to producing engines and such as promised, instead of lawsuits against his competition, we could see a new golden age of research and exploration in space, including private space stations that could eclipse the ISS in terms of capabilities. We would all benefit from true corporate competition in space.

It would appear that Russian troop movements are not necessarily tracking with their public statements on what they are doing. Big surprise. I’m also watching some of what is happening in Georgia, as they watch, learn, and evaluate in light of Ukraine’s efforts. The damage to Russia’s prestige and the myth of the Russian military are going to have ripple effects far and wide.

Kamil Galeev has part two of his take on three possible futures for Russia. It is a long read, but well worth it. There is a LOT of food for thought in it. Please do go read it.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

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Quick Thoughts

It is a quiet morning in many respects, but I also have miles to go and promises to keep this day. So, while it is quiet, I will answer a couple of questions.

Who do I follow or read regularly, particularly on Russia/Ukraine?

Instapundit, Vodka Pundit, Tent Telenko, Kamil Galeev are a good start. I’ve also found Legal Insurrection can have some interesting coverage as well. Sarah A. Hoyt has some interesting analysis as well.

What would I expect to see if Russia were to use nukes?

First, I would expect to see the massive cluster fuck that are current operations dealt with to some degree or another. It does no good to open holes if the troops aren’t able to take advantage of them. Though, at this point, use out of spite is not something I would put past Vladimir.

Second, expect to see some form of maskirova. Reportedly, dirty bomb materials allegedly disappeared from Chernobyl while the Russians controlled it. As I noted a few days ago, they have no need for such but what if those despicable Nazi Ukranian’s detonated a dirty bomb against brave Russian troops (cough, wheeze, sneeze, /sarc)? In the heat of combat, they might not use (much) maskirova. As things are now, they need at least a fig leaf of being the victim though few will buy it.

Oh, there are multiple reports that the Russian troops that were at Chernobyl have left because of radiation poisoning. If they were indeed told to dig in at the Red Forest, count on several hundred troops dead or so sick that they will likely never be fit for combat (or much of anything else) ever again.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Three Futures For Russia

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Three Futures For Russia

As I’ve noted several times before, if you are not reading Kamil Galeev on a regular basis, you should be. In this post, he begins his exploration of three possible futures for Russia. In this, he makes a lot of very good points.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

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Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Is Vladimir getting good and accurate info in his briefings? No. Next question.

Seriously, the reports that he is not being told of reality should be unsurprising. He has special ways of dealing with those who disappoint him, which can even include their families. As such, if you think those who brief and advise him are being bluntly honest about things, I have a bridge for sale…

As for the reports that he and other leaders/oligarchs are spreading out to various bunkers, again, are you surprised? Forget the nuclear threat, there is a real and valid concern for Vladimir and those around him that efforts will be made to remove him — permanently. He’s been doing the whole “guess where I am” thing for a while, moving around at random to cut down on the odds of assassination.

Part of the problem with building that golden bridge so he has an out (that Biden has effectively nuked) is that Vladimir himself has created a good bit of the problem that faces him and others: failure equals death. In fact, those that have failed him (and/or the Rodina in his mind) have more than earned the gruesome deaths given them. The problem for Vladimir is that the precedent has been set, and he knows what HE would do in that situation to the person stepping down. To him and even unto his family.

For all the estrangement with family, and even with former mistresses and potential children, I suspect there is some concern there for what would happen to them. They are his blood, and that comes with a price. It would be one thing if the new administration went after them for money which he has used them to hide; but, such things rarely stop there.

This is the way things used to be before the great experiment that is the Republic that is the United States of America. Even the “normal” passing of a kingship from father to son could be fraught with peril. When it wasn’t normal, the bloodshed was often stupendous and the families of the loser faced slaughter and slavery. The idea was to destroy not only the person at the lead, but any and all legacy including genetic.

Which brings me to Donald Trump and the derangement of the left. Granny Wine Box of the family Venal just couldn’t put away her kangaroo suit after two failed impeachments, but brought about the January 6 farce being played out. Add to it all the different investigations (which have largely found nothing and gone nowhere) and efforts to destroy Trump and his family, and you have an end to the cornerstone of the Republic: the peaceful transition of power.

It is being made abundantly clear that any who oppose the so-called Elite will be destroyed. Between cancel culture, interference with banking, malicious prosecution and sentencing, and all the other things we see being touted in the media as just and proper, the peaceful transfer of power is dead. It will start with the courts, as each administration is tried and found guilty for crimes real and imagined. It will end in bloodshed.

In the past, even when it was clear that someone had broken the law, there was a reluctance to prosecute after they left office for fear of damaging that cornerstone. Today, the cornerstone is being hit by gleefully wielded jackhammers in an effort to destroy the personification of the threat to the Elites. That they still fail to grasp that Trump was between them and the threat says much.

Of course, like Vladimir did, they fail to grasp that they will be subject to the new rules and not exempted from them. What is happening right now with Vladimir is simply the normal version of the world in many respects, and the logical extension of destroying your political opponents. It is where the efforts now underway will lead if we let it.

Some food for thought this morning.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

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Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Over at Instapundit, Glenn Reynolds brings up a good point about maintenance and reliability. This applies to our systems as well as the systems of any other country.

I can’t get too far into efforts to ensure the reliability of our systems, but will note that you do have to test systems both as a whole and in parts. For example, solid rocket motors can develop cracks and fissures over time, especially if they are not properly stored. Just look back on the need to X-ray the remaining Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) solid motors after they were stored. The other type of testing is to actually fire the motors. I will say that you might enjoy checking out the Arnold Engineering Development Center AEDC site as it is (or was) the free world’s most comprehensive testing site.

Even with stringent quality control on manufacturing and thorough testing to determine lifespan and other issues, there are going to be failures large and small. It’s not just in movies that someone forgets to pull a pin or a weapon jams or fails to fire — it is real life. There’s some video out there of a mortar crew scrambling for safety after round “bloops” and basically falls out of the tube right in front of them.

While I won’t get into what Glenn was told about our systems, I would not be surprised at all on the figure given for the Russians, and given what we are learning about Russian maintenance, it could be optimistic. Like him, I have no desire to find out who is right. Keep in mind that their strategic launch system (Dead Hand) is dependent upon a system that will launch every time (and that we need to take out in boost phase if it does launch)…

I am also reminded that back too many years ago, when I first got into Soviet Watching, the Circular Error of Probability (CEP) for some of the Russian missiles were measured in miles, not feet or yards. CEP is a measure of the precision of the weapon, be it artillery or a missile. The more precise the weapon, the lower the CEP. Because they could not match (at the time) the precision of our missiles, they used huge warheads to try to make up for not being able to be sure of hitting the target directly. It was as our CEP improved that we could move into Multiple Independently targeted Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) making use of smaller warheads that were more effective.

Precision and reliability are one reason bombers are still a thing.

Legal Insurrection has a very good story up, which includes a link to a 2021 commentary by former Russian MP Nevzorov, who got right what almost every intelligence agency got wrong. I urge you to go read the entire article, but I am going to embed the video as it is positively scary on several levels.

Vladimir, Biden, and a host of others were unprepared for the amazing unity of the Ukrainian people this time around. Nevzorov wasn’t, he saw it last year. Two good reads on the unity and the intelligence failure are linked as food for thought.

As for Vladimir pulling back, don’t count on it. Redeploy and prepare to resume operations, I can believe. I can see him focusing on the Donbas for a bit, but you better believe that the “redeployments” for that are also designed to let him build up and try for Kyiv and the Southern Front again as soon as possible. If he truly were pulling back in a move to help bring about peace, I would expect to see different movements. He’s not about to give up now. Also, the admonition not to eat or drink anything at the peace talks is a very good idea.

As for Biden, his cheat sheet and double-down have gone well beyond being unhelpful. From them, it is clear that regime change is desired. Even if it is not, there is no one, anywhere, who doesn’t believe that it is at this point given the verbal spewings. Especially Vladimir. Rather than try to find or create an offramp or offramps, this administration has decided to blow any potential such structure off the map. The results of that are not going to be good.

By the way, if you are not reading Stephen Green’s work on what is going on, as well as his other writings, you are missing out. Vodka Pundit is a must read, and don’t just go with what he posts at Indy.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

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Burn Notice

I’m laughing my fuzzy fluffy rump off this morning, not at the cute television series, but rather the release by the Ukrainians of a list of more than 600 people they claim are Russian spies operating in Europe. Not just names, but a variety of information about them including financial in some cases.

I’m not even about to begin to speculate how accurate the list may be, but if even only a fraction of the people are as claimed, this is a huge blow to Russian intelligence operations in Europe. If it is mostly or completely accurate, it is a disaster of biblical proportions to FSB operations in Europe.

There are many different types of spies. You have those operating under diplomatic cover, who to be honest are quite often controllers and recruiters rather than out doing James Bond type stuff. It can happen, particularly on first assignments overseas, but they are supposed to be there in the open as it were. One reason they don’t do a lot of flashy stuff (if smart) is that part of the game was trying to make the enemy play “guess the spy” and make them split resources covering everyone. One exception was with military attaches, as pretty much everyone knew that they were spies even if they tried not to act like it. After all, you wanted them invited as observers, etc. so they could get information.

Then you have those who are posing as business owners, salespeople, journalists, and a host of other professions. All with very legitimate needs to travel, meet people, etc. All who had contacts and avoided the automatic assumption of being a spy associated with being a diplomat/politician.

Then you had the full covert agents, sometimes sleepers, that were infiltrated into countries with new IDs and covers, who took pains to never be associated with any government, etc. The KGB used to be very good at planting sleepers around the world, particularly Europe and the U.S.

Finally, you have those recruited in a target country. They had to be monitored, controlled, and provided means of dropping off information and messages. A good bit of that was controlled by those with diplomatic immunity, but could also find covert agents used in the chain of communications. Particularly where business or social led to frequent contact anyway. Potentially dangerous, but sometimes far less dangerous than dead drops.

The Ukrainian list blows the first two groups, if not the first three groups, out of the water. From the quick look I took, it seems more like groups two and three, but… Even if none from three are on this list, the handlers just got blown. They are cut off, potentially exposed, and on their own.

Even if no name on the list were accurate, the intense scrutiny this is going to place on these people and anyone linked even remotely to them, is going to severely hamper FSB operations in Europe, and likely elsewhere. Again, if it is accurate to any great degree, this is an unmitigated disaster that could hamper or cripple operations for years.

Bravo. Well played.

Monday Update

Well, we made it through the weekend though it remains to be seen how the weekend plays out. For those who missed the latest bits of Biden’s verbal incontinence, he: indicated that we would respond to any chemical attack with a chemical attack; he then went on to tell the 82nd what they would see when they arrived in the Ukraine; and, to top it off, he called for the removal of Putin — regime change.

For all that the White House valiantly strove to walk these comments back, the damage is done. In this case, the damage is severe. When you talk about using chemical or nuclear weapons like a loose cannon, the other side is going to view words and operations in that context. When you talk about sending in troops, they aren’t going to believe you when you say ‘just kidding.’ When you talk about regime change, which means the death of Putin, they actually are not out of line to regard those comments as “certainly alarming” and to “track the statements of the U.S. president in the most attentive way.”

Vladimir and others in the Kremlin do not have the liveliest regard for Biden to start with. Senile and an idiot may come up in non-public discussions, along with much stronger about Biden and those behind him in private, and it is no secret that Vladimir regards most Western leaders as corrupt hypocrites. With good cause in my opinion. He does see them as attacking him over things they do themselves; and, keep in mind that any attack on him is an attack on the Rodina and the dream of Russkiy Mir. Such attacks infuriate him and there are rumors that it is not a calm and collected response (to be polite).

So, thanks to diarrhea mouth, he has every reason to believe we want him dead and will encourage such; that we are going to send in troops; and, that we will use special weapons. Joy.

Now, add to this the abysmal and utter failures of both U.S. and Western intelligence over the last few years, but particularly this last year. The thing is, I’m sure somewhere down at the lowest ranks, there are people who diligently dug up the info and crafted decent analysis of that information and events. Almost every time you dig into a failure, you find that people had the parts but either through incompetence/mores or willful manipulation, such never got to the top.

The thing is, it’s not just in the West. Clearly, Vladimir’s own agencies let him down. It is interesting that both Biden and Vladimir “knew” that Kyiv would fall in two days. Equally, it is clear that didn’t happen. However, both made their responses based on that, and until this weekend, neither had changed course. This weekend, Vladimir did.

It is more than just the announcement that the Russians declaring that they had met their initial objective (think a cat doing that “I meant to do that” thing) and that now they would focus on the next goals and securing the Donbas. In some ways, they have no choice but to do that as weather/terrain and logistics make that and the South the only regions where they do much.

However, a message was sent in response to Biden’s comments. The attacks on the large supply depots in Lviv are both a message and an effort to start making the Ukraine change how it does things. As was noted by a spokesman, they are going to have to change to smaller depots and a lot more of them. It’s not unsurprising and in some respects it isn’t much, but the Russian’s have been dancing to the Ukrainian’s tune as it were, and wanted to see the Ukraine dance at least a beat or two to theirs.

I’m also watching the story of Ukrainian troops torturing POWs. If it is true, the Ukrainian government needs to investigate and act fast in terms of punishment. By itself, it could undo a lot of the goodwill the world has for the Ukraine. However, I also am wondering if this is disinformatia/maskirova coming out of Russia. Again, it could be done just to damage the image of the Ukraine (and weaken support); or, it could be aimed at Russian troops trying to slow the rate of desertion and surrender; or, it could also be part of a plan to justify a change in use of force/weapons. Both (all) sides have been doing some amazing propaganda, and I have to wonder where this falls.

I also find this article by Niall Ferguson to be both interesting and on some levels quite naive. He is correct that many in the halls of power speak history as the language of power. Putting things into a historical context makes it easier for many to understand. However, thinking that what is happening now equates to the past, rather than blazing new history, explains how the initial responses to a situation are so often wrong. Think generals at the start of a new war still fighting the old. It also offers a way to manipulate at the top by being tailored to their prejudices and mores via the convenient omission of parts of that historical context.

His analysis of what we are doing and why, seems pretty spot on to me. I also find his declaration that Vladimir won’t use nuclear to be charmingly naive. Which leads to his discussion of the Ukraine losing the war. While he has a point, I think he’s missing some things.

Frankly, I’m surprised that the attack out of Belarus has not already happened. That said, there are good reasons it hasn’t and some of that has to do with the sabotage of the logistics and transportation by those in Belarus who are opposed to the war and/or their government. For all that Lukashenko rules with an iron fist and was willing to hijack a plane to kidnap an opposition leader (with the aid of Vladimir), the natives are beyond restless. Right now, what is being done is largely cyber, but that may be changing. Lukashenko can send the troops in, but how well that will go is debatable and the Ukraine has had time to prepare — and I hope they have done so. So long as they can’t do a “lightning strike” and close the supply lines, this could well turn into another slogging match.

The East and the Donbas are where I think the Russians have the best chance because of weather, terrain, and the ability to get supplies to the troops. That said, I’m not prepared to declare it a “gimme” given how badly Russian Army has performed so far. Keep in mind that there are strong pockets of resistance and reports that the Russian rule in the two pockets has been so brutal that even some of the Russophiles are unhappy and would like to see the Russians gone.

The South is the question mark, and quite probably the schwerpunkt. If the Russians can take Odessa, the coast, and all the ports, it is over unless the Ukrainians can quickly retake part of the area. Without those ports, a viable independent Ukraine is unlikely. While Mr. Ferguson makes a good point, I think he misses how hard it will be for the Russians to take Odessa quickly. Can they do it, yes. Are they willing to commit the troops and supplies needed, and can they get them where they need them quickly and easily? That’s not as likely and the Ukrainians have just demonstrated that they can and will take a weapons system that can’t possibly be used to do X and use it to do X via the short-range ballistic attack on the LST.

There is also the upcoming peace talks. Though Vladimir’s word isn’t worth the spit behind it, they could end up offering a chance for both sides to set things aside for a while. Will Vladimir ever give up the dream of getting the full Ukraine back as the start of Russkiy Mir? No. That is an indelible part of the plan, and as Col. Kalugin noted Kyiv is the birthplace of Russia and as such highly desired.

While Mr. Ferguson does make some valid and good points, I think the reason he misses on some is that he believes Vladimir is focused on the past, on Imperial Russia. In some respects, he is; but, where he truly is focused is not the past but on creating a new, larger, better, greater Imperial Russia in Russkiy Mir. For all that he is aware of the past and speaks the language of history (do love Ferguson’s points on this!), he is focused on the future, not the past. He is seeking to take the plan for Russkiy Mir and make it real, with himself in the top spot.

For now, he has no other choice. There is no path for him to relinquish power and live, and a good bit of that is his own doing. That Biden keeps removing offramps via his verbal outbursts and actions, is not helping the situation. It is why Vladimir has not taken special weapons of any type off the table, and believes that the U.S. either won’t respond (despite what has been said) or that response can be controlled via manipulating the Biden administrations fear of WWIII. Or, very small chance, he may hold back simply because Biden is senile and might be crazier than he thinks and thus there is no way to control his response.

If Russian troops continue to be stalled. If the resistance in the Donbas is stronger than expected. If the Belarus attack is thwarted. If the attack on Odessa turns into another siege, then look to Vladimir to follow doctrine and employ special weapons. As I said earlier, I wonder about that video and if it could be the first of several such to get out and used to set the stage for such via maskirova. And if you want something to really make you wonder, why have radioactive materials apparently disappeared from Chernobyl when the Russians have plenty of such in their own stockpiles? What if “the Ukraine” or some of “its forces” suddenly make use of a dirty bomb of sorts? Never, ever underestimate the willingness of the Russian military and leadership to use disinformatia and maskirova. It’s doctrine, has been, is, and may always be. Just like the use of special weapons.

There’s more, but this is long enough, I’m tired, and have to go see a doc. Let’s see what the day brings. May yours bring you good things.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine