Category: Current Events

Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday, but between having to go let the vampires have a go at me, and the effects of the weather changes (not to mention the house trying to flood again), it was interesting. The weather changes have an effect not only on my joints and such, but also seem to have an effect on the “scrambling” caused by the lightning hit. I’ve always used checklists, but have taken it to an even higher level of late. Of course, it also helps to remember to take the list with you when you head out… Ah well, got a fair bit done if not all. If interested in learning more about the whole hit by lightning thing, check out the posts at the fundraiser as well as a few here.

More than ever, my previous advice stands: as I noted the other day, don’t believe everything coming out from ANY source including the conspiracy people. And, I do include anything on this site or that I say should be treated that way. Take it with a bit of salt until you can research and verify. If it is from a military source on the record, take it with a grain of salt. If it’s from the media, take it with a tun of salt until it can be verified via a reliable source. As Boss said, trust; but, verify.

Also, let me stress again my belief that we do not want or need to get directly involved in the fighting. The complete and total idiots (or those simply evil enough to want a larger war for fun and profit) who keep pushing for some kind of no-fly-zone are not helping the situation at all. There’s enough chance of a wider conflict as it is, a no-fly-zone is a guaranteed open World War. Help supply the Ukraine and let them fight for their own country? Yes! Send in our troops? NO!

A fair question on my coverage: why am I not commenting on each unit/campaign/etc? First, most of my analysis is on the strategic level, trying to put the puzzles together so that a realistic picture is formed as well as providing a base for trying to figure out what Vladimir will do next. Second, it’s that whole trust and verify thing. I have a limited amount of time each day where I can productively research and write. Trying to verify all the different reports takes a LOT of time and sometimes makes life difficult in regards sources. So, I mostly stick to the strategic knowing that there are good sources/analysts out there who are covering that topic well.

Yes, those individual units/actions/etc. are pieces in the puzzle but I don’t always need what’s on or in the piece: I simply need the “shape” to know where it fits. On the pieces where I need both, I will take the time.

I am going to recommend keeping a close eye on the NATO meeting underway. There’s already been one presentation, a warning about nuclear war, that I think was unhelpful. Also, given Biden’s amazing ability to “fuck things up” per his old boss, I would not be surprised if he found a way to let his normal verbal incontinence make the situation worse. Also, if you are reading reports that Vladimir does not have a high opinion of Biden and those behind him, consider that verified. Diplomatically.

If you truly want a better understanding of who Vladimir was, what he is now, and a bit more, the wonderful Sarah Hoyt linked this morning to a story that is chock full of juicy and excellent food for thought. You really want to take the time to listen to the video interview of one of Vladimir’s former supervisors. Col. Kalugin is not your average or typical intel source. Before he had to leave Russia for his own safety, he was (and may still be) a mover and shaker as they say. Listen to it all, then listen again.

Despite tap dancing in a few spots (and he did so most excellently), he gets across a lot of information to those paying attention. As for the tap dancing, in a couple of the spots I can’t blame him and may join in. The picture he provides of Vladimir showcases how ruthless, conniving, and brutal he truly is. It also confirms some of the things I’ve been telling you. Vladimir saw the fall of the USSR as a catastrophe, though it was not for the fall of communism but rather the loss of the territories of the Russian empire. This lies at the heart of Russkiy Mir and the creation of a new Russian empire. Col. Kalugin also pointed out that the Ukraine is the mother of Russia, and Kyiv holds a special place in the hearts of Slavophiles, especially those who are behind the creation of Russkiy Mir. Hence, part of Vladimir’s obsession with Kyiv.

One thing many may miss is what Col. Kalugin is getting at in his discussion about Alexander Litvinenko and his murder in London. Allow me to tap dance just a bit, and say that there have been rumors about Vladimir for years, and especially about his sexuality. Litvinenko came out and said directly what a number of those rumors implied: that Putin is attracted to young boys. You can read some more on this here.

That he has had several rather public affairs has been speculated to be cover, to burnish his image as the strong (virile) man of myth. There are reports/rumors (take your pick) that others with direct knowledge of this have also died, almost always horribly. If you betray Vladimir (and by doing so you are a traitor to the Rodina as well), he will get you. Some of Col. Kalugin’s comments on this are a master study in understatement.

For all that Col. Kalugin tap dances, he manages to get across the idea that he suspects Vladimir will only leave office via death. Given that the intelligence and counter-intelligence assets Putin controls here in the U.S. are just as prepared to murder for him as the ones in (or sent to) London, he is wise to tap dance around the concept of removing Vladimir. Let’s face it: even if a peaceful way was offered, Vladimir would not accept it because he knows what he would do which is betray and murder.

As for the rest of that article, read it! There is a lot of information and food for thought there. If you had told me a few months ago that the Russian army would have to use not only unsecured but enemy operated communications nets, I would have laughed at you. Yes, the army is not what it used to be, but surely they remembered the lessons of the past, not to mention all the preparation and doctrine for a war with NATO. Wow.

All I’m going to say right now is that Wow, and that the situation may even be worse than is being said. I don’t want to say too much, as people running their mouths, to reporters or on social media, have sunk ships as it were. I’m also old enough to remember when that idiot peanut from Georgia told the media about our monitoring a conversation by Brezhnev with a fellow politburo member regarding the (apparently remarkable) attributes of his new mistress. Of course, this let the Soviet’s know that we had the ability to monitor the car-to-car transmissions of the politburo members. Had was indeed the operative word, pretty much within minutes. People (mostly politicians) here and especially those in the Ukraine need to shut-the-frack-up and/or quit posting.

Now, let’s look at logistics. Again, Wow. What is happening is beyond FUBAR. It has put the Russian troops on the defensive, giving the Ukrainians precious time to restock, restore, dig in, and in some cases take the offense. The other day I linked another story at Instapundit, who in turned linked to Stacy McCain and his discussion of what happened to the 331st Guards. He is careful to say that “if true” and while I echo that, there is very good reason to believe it is true. Yet again, Wow. This was truly an elite unit, and its loss is devastating on many levels. The near-term effects are staggering, and it is a loss that will not be truly made up for years given the loss of experience. That the Ukraine(!) took them out is going to ripple around the region if not the world.

Some of that is a discussion for another day. What matters today is that Stacy is right: that it was a result of the lack of supplies and replacements that doomed them. If I was in charge in the Ukraine, I would be expanding the attacks on Russian logistics. If this report is true, and they took out what I show as an LST via a short-range ballistic missile as some reports indicate, then they might just be doing so. That it also changes the tactical defense requirement for the Russians (note all reports show the other LSTs headed out) since it seems short-range ballistic missiles were not in the threat matrix. A new and novel use for them if it is true, and it once again forces the Russians on the defensive.

Which brings us back, once again, to doctrine. Via the Bongino Report, I found this interesting article. Please do go read it, as there is a huge amount of information there. While I do not yet endorse his recommendations, I also don’t disagree with them. I do think steps to deter are needed, and we are not likely to get them out of the Biden administration, and that could well prove catastrophic.

Right now, Vladimir is a desperate man motivated by personal survival; maintaining power (intertwined but separate); and, the dream of the new Russian Empire. He has and is using the “N word” a great deal, especially since Slow Joe let him know of his fear of WWIII. He’s doing it to deter us, and it’s working. That is not a good thing as once strategic response is off the table even in response to a crippling attack, it opens the door for tactical without repercussions.

I’m reminded of a line from Tom Clancy, in which two Soviet officers are talking about the use of nukes. Essentially, one makes the case that the line between tactical and strategic use only existed in the mind of idiotic academics (primarily Western). That any use would escalate and move swiftly out of control. I agree, but do not want to test that hypothesis.

While it’s out of order, one more bit of food for thought as you evaluate things. Keep in mind that a good bit of Russian history, and a large part of its internal politics, boils down to conflict between those who look to the West and Western ideals of the Enlightenment, and those who look to Slavic culture (Slavophiles). In Vladimir, you have in some ways the Slavophile’s Slavophile; and, in Russkiy Mir you have the Slavophile wet dream prepared as a plan so that wet dream can be made real.

Now, go back and re-listen to the interview with Col. Kalugin. Then think a bit.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

*****

If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Yesterday, I talked about that which lies behind the curtain, and today we return in part to the puzzles and pieces that are the events happening. Many things still just don’t add up; but, more things are coming into focus.

Again, as I noted the other day, don’t believe everything coming out from ANY source including the conspiracy people. And, I do include anything on this site or that I say should be treated that way. Take it with a bit of salt until you can research and verify. As Boss said, trust; but, verify.

That rule also applies to someone who has impressed me. Go read the latest from Kamil Galeev. When you get to the bottom of the story, take the time to go read the other things he’s written that you have not yet read. He has a number of good insights and thoughts. Again, read what others say and make an informed judgement.

The four LSTs that passed Japan are interesting for a number of reasons. If they are indeed headed for the fighting, it could be a long voyage. If headed to the Black Sea, will they be allowed transit of the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus? If they are not headed to the Black Sea, are they intended to head to the Baltic for land transport? Either way, it indicates that at least someone thinks this is going to go on a while. Pity I’m not seeing any submarines currently active in the Ukrainian navy, as the Russians appear to really need the equipment on those ships. Be a shame if something happened to them.

As noted before, there is a lot that doesn’t make sense with what is known. The attacks in the East and the South are not only to take a land bridge to the Crimea, but to also rob the Ukraine of its ports and most productive territory. If they lose the South and the ports, they lose the ability to conduct trade. In short, that effort is designed to force any divided Ukraine to have to join the Russian-controlled part simply to survive. Yet, the South is stalled almost as bad as the North/East attack against Kyiv though conditions are much more favorable in terms of being able to operate off-road.

Which in turn leads to logistics and training. One of the few things most sources agree on is that the logistics situation is FUBAR and getting worse. If the four LSTs are indeed aimed at getting critical logistics to the war, it is the equivalent of a Hail Mary play where someone is hoping things hold on long enough for it to arrive. Meantime, multiple sources that are not the Ukraine are reporting that food, fuel, ammunition, and more are in short supply for the Russian troops.

Troops themselves seem to be in short supply, and this article at Instapundit not only has some interesting info on sabotage of the supply lines, but an astounding admission on the true number of killed and wounded. The Kremlin has maintained that the numbers were low, ridiculously so. Yet, a pro-Kremlin outlet has released information that almost 10,000 have been killed and some 16,000 wounded. Note that they are very careful not to mention the number captured — or that have flat out defected, often with weapons systems. More on the outlet in a moment.

Now, let’s look at training. One of the reasons the U.S. military was so successful in many operations was the amount and realism of training. It allowed green units to function as if they were veteran units in the early days of Iraq. Our version of shock and awe requires not only well-trained troops, but equally well trained and practiced logistics.

There are multiple reports out that the Russian troops literally can’t operate cross country, which says a lot about land nav training. That other areas of (very) basic training are on par with the land nav. While the Russians do have a number of elite troops, keep in mind that a good bit of the forces are conscripts, who often just want to get it over with and out — and have no real motivation to train and do well. So, even if the weather (and mud) were better, they still could not make full use of their forces.

I will also join right now in agreeing with others who have pointed out that the large number of senior officer deaths reflects these issues. When your troops are not well trained, may not be fully under control, and don’t necessarily want to be there, you have to lead from the front or very damned close so as to make things happen. Which means you have a better than average chance of making a com mistake or otherwise identifying yourself and your command unit as a target. With the exception of one sniper shot, that’s what’s happened to most. That one such officer was the officer responsible for the massacre of Ukrainian troops who had been promised safe passage out of an area a few years ago is poetic justice. When Putin talks safe corridors, he’s lying and that incident is the proof of such.

Now, let’s go back to the unexpected report by Pravda. Rather, let’s look at what lies behind it. There are a number of indications that not only agencies of the government are not working well together, but that divisions within those agencies are not working well together. There is some speculation that some of this is deliberate and some is just war magnifying the normal bureaucratic incompetence. There are some very interesting rumors that a LOT of it is deliberate, as people who oppose the war are taking any chance to spike it (especially if they can’t be caught at it). Yesterday, I mentioned the demographics involved in Russkiy Mir pro and con, and I have a suspicion that some of the, er, friction between different parts of the Kremlin may mirror those demographics.

One also wonders how much any of this is being accurately reported to Vladimir. It’s pretty clear that the briefings he got before the invasion had very little connection to reality. When you are a strongman with a temper and known for arranging very nasty ends for those who displease you, you tend not to get told anything you don’t want to hear. When you do hear of people disagreeing with you, no matter how reasonable the disagreement, and your reaction is to declare them traitors to the Rodina and act upon it, it might further deplete the supply of truth reaching you. As I noted yesterday, Putin is a “true believer” in Russkiy Mir both because he believes in the end goal and he sees it as the way to secure and expand his (now extremely shakey) position. I think it has led to some serious miscalculations, and that more are to come.

At this point, however, I suspect that Vladimir realizes the damage done. It is not just economic (he cares not at all about the hardship on the average Russian citizen), but the political costs are huge. The threat of the Russian military is not completely destroyed, but has taken damage such that the areas he wants to force into Russkiy Mir are not only no longer terrified, but believe they can fight and win. Russia was always heavily dependent on imports, and that has now significantly increased and Xi is smiling the smile of a loan shark at the fact that most of that trade now has to go through him. Putin has begun turning off energy to the West, and the West is already figuring ways to do without him. Heck, Germany may even restart its nuclear power plants if rumors from Berlin are correct. I hope they are, as otherwise Germany and a good bit of Europe are fucked if they don’t, short and long term.

Vladimir’s position was shaky before this. Now, he’s a cornered rat in many respects. He can’t trust his fellow oligarchs, for all he’s neutered them as best he can. He can’t trust his military. He can’t trust even his fellow-traveling politicians as some of them already are reported to be looking to arrange soft landings elsewhere. I would not be surprised to see his already interesting security arrangements get even more interesting — one wonders if all of his in person meetings might now be done at a hundred feet… He’s also aware that the public as a whole is not to be trusted. For all that he does have a very loyal base, it is not a majority (or even close). He has no “out” within Russia for all practical purposes; and, he will not consider any out that would place him outside of Russia. Never mind the fact that he’s been declared a war criminal and that leaders of other governments have called for him to be deposed and/or killed. No, more than ever I think he will double down and hope that doing so will let him accomplish enough of Russkiy Mir to not just hang on, but to gain power.

Again, this does not make me optimistic about reasonable decisions, much less any that fall within definition of good choices. On the military front, doctrine calls for the use of nukes in situation like this. There may be an option for Russia to use its chemical or biological weapons in place of nukes in terms of doctrine, in the belief that the U.S. would not respond to their use the same as the use of nukes. Then again, doctrine (and thought within those red walls) believe that Western leadership, particularly the U.S., will not do so anyway.

All we can do at this point is hang on and hope for the best. As I said before, we may be about to witness what happens when it’s not one world leader who’s insecure in MAD terms, rather what happens when no major world leader is secure. Won’t that be fun!

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

*****

If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

I had hoped to get this out last Friday, but weather changes have had me rather locked up. That said, it is still timely and if you want to understand not just the invasion of the Ukraine, but all his other actions, you should read and listen on.

First, listen to this speech by Putin. There are captions that are reasonably accurate if you don’t speak Russian. Some describe it as bizarre, and in sections it may seem such. The problem is, it really isn’t from the point of view of someone who subscribes to the concept of “Russia World” (Russkiy Mir) as he has for a couple of decades now.

If you are not familiar with this term, this is a fairly concise overview. Note the reference to “New Russia” which is the goal of a new Russian empire. And, yes, there are references to “Holy Russia” in there too, which is why Kirill is onboard with the idea. And, if you dig into it a bit more, you will find the philosophical fingerprints of both Aleksandr Dugin and Ivan Ilyin on the concept too. I really do need to get deeper into this concept, but suffice it to say it has the capability of bringing the Church, the Russian Mafia, and the Oligarchs together because they can all make bank on it.

It is also worth noting that it appeals primarily to older Russians, and to a younger set that sees it as a way to move up in life and who are of a particular political view. For many younger people, the concepts involved have neither the emotional appeal nor the practical appeal — and in fact are repellent to those who are embracing more Western ideals on freedom. When you look at who supports Putin right now, and those opposed, you can get a good idea of the generational break.

I seem to have lost one bookmark, which is to an interview on German television of Putin about why he invaded. Putin launches into a rant about Clinton’s campaign bus dumping sewage on the street and how that was sickening and, in essence, a sign of how morally sick the West has become. The television host is quite taken aback, and Putin adds a bit more to the rant. When pressed to say anything else, he simply says no. It is bizarre, to say the least, but it is also a reflection of the concepts of Russkiy Mir.

Vladimir is a strongman in an increasingly vulnerable state. He is heavily invested in Russkiy Mir, and as such has couched a lot of his speeches on the concepts within: Holy Russia and the morally decadent West; the fight against Nazis; the need to reclaim that which is Russian to begin building the New Russia; and, the need to deal with the immoral elements at home.

Thus you get the speech seen at the top. While some of it is clearly aimed at the Oligarchs who have turned to the West and mostly live there, it is also aimed at all Russian citizens. If you don’t embrace the ideals of Russkiy Mir, you are a traitor. If you oppose Putin and his efforts to bring about the New Russia, you are a traitor. Vladimir deals with those he considers traitors in nasty ways: nerve agents, radioactive agents, nasty poisons, and other means of gruesome deaths.

He sees being bold and starting the process of reclaiming the “lost” land as a means to bolster his position. He gambled heavily on it, and it has not gone well for him. Going after Oligarchs who pretty much have left Russia and tend to not favor Vladimir, he both sends a signal and when he does move the state (and his buddies) get to take control of their Russian assets. It sets the stage for even further repression of the general populace.

Listen/look at his words in light of Russkiy Mir, and you have his official motivations for all his actions. His private are like almost anyone else: securing and/or expanding his power and making his situation more secure.

Keep in mind, he is desperate. He was desperate before the invasion, and now that it has not gone to plan, he is even more desperate. Desperate people make bad decisions, it’s almost guaranteed. This is why the use of chemical or nuclear weapons IS an option as far as he is concerned. It has been and still is military doctrine in Russia. If he will use nerve agents and more on those he deems traitors, don’t think he won’t hesitate to do far worse if needed to save his hide.

Meantime, keep an eye on the domestic situation here. The fact that the Shady Lady, aka the New York Times, has admitted that Hunter’s laptop is real and verified is a political nuke. The implications are staggering, and I would be unsurprised if there were not regime change here in the works.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

*****

If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

First, believe nothing you see, read, or hear, at least until it can be confirmed. The amount of propaganda coming out of all sides is staggering, and the quality of much of it is amazing. Impressive even. That said, if the story says anything about informed/anonymous sources, treat it as false until proven true. That goes for any subject, as history has shown most (if not all) such stories to be works of fiction. Sadly, more than a grain of salt is needed these days.

Second, I’m really wondering if politicians (particularly in the U.S.) are required to be as dumb as a box of rocks. Comments being made about Russia, Putin, etc. on both sides of the aisle show an incredible lack of knowledge about the man, the country, and the current situation. Some also show a lack of consideration of the old adage that loose lips sink ships. Others, like Mittens Romney, need to just shut up and go awaty.

Third, if you do want some very good insights to what is going on in Russia, and how things work/don’t work there, scroll down to the bottom of this story on Threadreader for a listing of all the writings by Kamil Galeev.

Fourth, if you need a reminder of just how vicious and unscrupulous Vladimir and his cronies are, go to this post at Instapundit and read all the linked stories. Keep in mind that a number of those killed were poisoned in very nasty ways both so they suffered tremendously and were very public advertisements of why you did NOT want to mess with Vladimir. That he regarded/regards them as personal traitors as well as traitors to the new “Russia World”/imperial Russia that he wants to create speaks volumes. To those who keep saying he wants to bring back the Soviet Union: No, he does not. He wants the territory of the old Soviet Union (plus a bit more), but with a new, better, Russian government. Remember, he regards the Communism of the old, and the old Communist Party to have been a poison to the Motherland that kept her from earning her true glory. Because, communism was not a Russian idea and therefore could never work in the Rodina.

Fifth, depending on who you talk to, Russia is 2/10/30/etc. days from running out of logistics. Men, machines, ammo, everything. For now, I’m leaning towards the point being within the next two weeks. Problem is, a lot can happen in that time. To both/all sides. As that point approaches, things are going to get dicey, as Vladimir’s desperation will increase. Desperate men do stupid and desperate things. Given that he was willing to kill his own people to seize power, and delights in horrible deaths for those he regards as traitors, there are no bets or options off the table. Anyone saying options are off the table is a fool. The only person taking options off the table in public is Biden, and he has choked on every military op he’s been involved with as a politician. Remember who it was who recommended aborting the mission to kill OBL? The only thing that scares me worse than Mr. Run Away making decisions about combat is someone on his team aware that he is weak and deciding that a strong and forceful position and/or action is needed… Think on in a minute.

Sixth, while I understand and can even sympathize a bit with some of the newer NATO members who remember being ruled by the USSR and want no part of the new Russia World, neither NATO or the U.S. need to be in the fight. There are zero reasons for our troops to be there. The Ukrainians? Hell yes. They have done an amazing job and I support them doing it. I support the idea of their neighbors and others arming/helping arm them. I wish we had started stocking them up last fall. But, send things, not people. And the newer NATO members need to stop trying to push things so that NATO does get involved.

Maybe more later today. Yesterday was the cardiologist and today is yet another doctor.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

*****

If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The author is on a roll. You really do want to read this if you want to have even a chance of understanding what has happened and what will happen in Russia. An excellent food-for-thought meal.

Aside from mores (see discussion here), one of the most common mistakes in analysis comes from thinking that the events taking place are a single jigsaw puzzle. That if we can just find all the pieces and get them in place, the picture will be complete and allow complete understanding of who, what, why, when, etc.

Real life, however, is never that neat. No matter how hard anyone, analyst or politician, tries to pound things flat into and into that ideal picture, the 3-D mess just keeps popping back up. For any given event, there are a large number of puzzles in play, and what makes life fun is trying to figure out not only what pieces you have (and don’t have), but to which puzzle they belong. Some actually belong to several puzzles at once. Fun!

In this case, the “main” jigsaw puzzle is the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Far too many are presenting it as a nice, simple, 2-d event. What’s worse, some of those so doing are setting policy, and 2-d policy rarely works in what truly is almost an ♾-1 environment. As for others, well, social media is full of them.

Within this puzzle reside quite a few others. In fact, the actual number of puzzles/dimensions is a bit staggering, so I’m going to try to simplify it without over-simplifying it.

In any respects, the prime intersecting puzzle is Vladimir Putin himself. Yet, his puzzle is made up of many more puzzles. His health is one, as I am more convinced than ever that he has mentally deteriorated. I don’t know if it is because he joined the Branch Covidian cult, or if that was just a symptom. It is clear, however, that he has slipped a few moorings and that those are most obvious in certain professional aspects. While it is pure speculation, a part of me suspects that he has came face-to-face with his mortality a few years ago, and it scared him. He is scared of death, and considers that being forced out and/or the system being changed is a form of death or will lead to death. His power is not nearly as secure as many seem to think. Pro tip: desperate people do stupid things.

His relationships with his fellow oligarchs is several other puzzles. Even allowing for a bit of flattening to reduce the number, this is one of the key elements in what is happening and what will happen. And before you start jumping to conclusions, you really do need to read this excellent article on how things work (or don’t work) in Russia. A friend posted the link on social media, and my hat is off to that friend and the author of the article. It gets how things work and explains it in a way even a politician can understand. No, they don’t do things like we do; they never have, and, they never will. The why’s have to do with history, the systems, and with culture.

To get back to the puzzles that are his relationships with his fellow oligarchs: it is complex as some like him, some hate him, some see him as inconvenient to their plans to move up and gain more power. All, however, are unlikely to want to upset the apple cart as doing so puts them all at risk, and a good bit of what is happening right now stems from the perceived risk of the current order being overturned. They see the potential for their world to end, and it terrifies them. Pro tip: desperate people do stupid things.

Now, there is the puzzle of his dream of a new Imperial Russia. For all that he seems convinced that the current Russian Army is the old Red Army, Vladimir is NOT a Soviet Communist. Exercise for the reader/student: look up who he does subscribe to. Short version, he — along with quite a number of influential and/or hardliners — believe that communism was an import to the Rodina that poisoned her. That because it came from outside it didn’t, wouldn’t, and couldn’t work there. Again, a bit of a simplification but the asinine idea that he wants to restore the Soviet Union seems to be everywhere. And, again, this puzzle is a major part of why he is frantic to have a new cordon sanitaire in place to keep Western (and other) ideals and practices away from the Rodina lest they poison her and lead to the system changing.

Then there is the puzzle of Putin and the military. Really, the military and intelligence functions, but lets go with the shorthand for now. As always, there are multiple puzzles here. First up, it seems fairly clear that he was not getting accurate reports on the state of the military, nor was he getting good intel on enemy preparations, operations, and general attitudes. I include the U.S. in that part, though the majority of this puzzle should concentrate on the Ukraine. Outside of that, it is clear that the response of most of the world caught Vladimir by surprise.

Tied into these puzzles are the quality and quantity of the briefings he has been given. As noted previously, the Red Army was noted for gundecking reports and it would appear the current Russian Army has continued the tradition. Keep in mind that the Russian Army is a conscript army, as that has huge implications. There is some word that while the KGB may be gone, zampolits and special troops/police to make the troops obey still exist. That said, they can’t be everywhere and the number of troops who have been captured or just surrendered is a sign of that as well.

A key puzzle in this mix is tactical and doctrine training. While the grunts have only a limited exposure to this, and keep in mind they do not have the strong NCO base that we do in our troops, their officers do. How realistic is that training? That may prove to be a major point, especially when it comes to nuclear doctrine. The Russians have continued with the Soviet thought that tactical weapons can be used, multiple times and locations, without retaliation. They view such use as justified, while any similar response is an escalation of the conflict.

While I mentioned intel above, the relationship between Vladimir and the FSB is another major puzzle. There are multiple reports that elements of the FSB have given warning, intel, and more to the Ukrainians. That is huge, and indicates that Putin’s control over the bureaucracy has slipped in a major way. It is going to add to his sense of desperation. Remember the pro tip.

There are more levels and puzzles, but you get the idea. There are several things bothering me in terms of missing pieces.

First missing piece that fits in several puzzles: endgame. If Vladimir’s entire goal was to take over the Ukraine, then his mental slippage is worse than I can imagine. It is clear he (and his advisors) misread the response to his actions. Vladimir of old would have had some fallbacks, even if he thought he could get away with it. And, yes, he did think that as he’s never been called out on Georgia, previous incursions into the Ukraine, shooting down the civilian airliner, or anything else. That said, he used to plan for things not to go perfectly, not depend on them doing so.

Was he maneuvered into this war? It is possible, and not just by some in the West. He’s not alone in the idea of a new Imperial Russia. I will note that Archbishop Vigano does raise some interesting points and — to my mind — questions.

Missing Piece Two: lack of video/other of combat. There is some, but there is a dearth of helmet cam and related, and not a lot from the South where there clearly is fighting underway. We see a lot of the aftermath, but not a lot of the events themselves. This video shows a small bit, but the context we are used to seeing from our own troops and others is missing.

Missing Piece Three: the nuclear chain. Yes, Vladimir has threatened to use nukes, and to even go strategic. He has apparently ordered nuclear-capable artillery into the fray. Yet, we are not (currently) getting reports of either movement of nuclear weapons or that Dead Hand has gone on alert, at least not beyond the televised order given to stand up a nuclear response. I hope neither pops up, but some of the dog-not-barking has me wondering if Vladimir may not be cut out of some of the nuclear loop. Part of me hopes he is, and yet the implications of that are terrifying. Also, do I trust our leadership here and elsewhere in NATO to warn us if there is movement of the nukes? No. In fact, I would place money on them lying about it, at least at first. Sadly, a safe bet.

There are some other missing pieces, but this is a post and not a book. Before anyone starts baying: no, I am not saying the war is a fake one. I am saying that there are elements we are not getting, and the why on that is important. I’m also not saying the Ukraine is going to win: Putin can grind them down simply with volume, though the cost of so doing will destroy the Russian Army and economy, and bring him and his buddies down. Keep in mind what people facing the end of their world might do, as it is unlikely to be a “smart” thing.

I am going to say that the rest of the world appears to owe the Ukraine a huge thank you. One thing they have done with their resistance is to destroy the myth of the mighty and invincible Red Army, er, Russian Army. What we have is a poorly trained army with nasty logistical issues. If you think some of the countries now openly defying Putin would have done so before this, I have a bridge you would be interested in purchasing for a sweet deal. This is also going to have an effect on China and its operations, or at least how things are viewed. You know Taiwan is making notes. How well they may apply is the question.

One more puzzle for you though. There appear to be two wars going on in the Ukraine. You have the north, which is getting almost all the press and attention. Then, you have the South, which is not getting the attention it should. I would also note that based on what I am seeing and hearing, the leadership of the Russians in the South seems to have it together, which is not the case in the North/East. Different terrain and other factors, but there is a huge difference. Pay attention.

Now, to the bad news from my reading of the tea leaves. Vladimir quite literally can’t pull back at this point. Not only are his troops in the North/East bogged down (literally in some cases), he has not achieved any of his major objectives. While Zelensky has offered to negotiate, and even make some major concessions, I don’t see it going anywhere. What Putin wants and needs is complete capitulation. He craves having a cordon sanitaire like a junkie needs a fix.

Vladimir can go for the long haul and simply grind the Ukrainian Army down. The problem is, as noted earlier, he can’t afford the economic costs and the political costs are going to be unacceptably high to him. He may, I hope, begin to have an idea of how the Ukrainian people are likely to respond to being occupied. One of the reasons for his attacks on civilians right now is to establish the brutality he will have to use to maintain control and order. If you read the linked article above, this brutality has a purpose that goes far beyond a mere madman being mad. He is seeking to break their spirit now, in hopes of a more peaceful (absence of all opposition) later.

So, what’s between the short victorious war that he never had a chance of and a long, drawn-out war of attrition? Soviet and Russian doctrine says (opens envelope, reads): nukes. If we get lucky, he will open up the thermobaric arsenal first; but, doctrine calls for tactical nukes with strategic being used to dissuade retaliation. Keep in mind, also, that he has already made clear that any action of any type to help the Ukraine is an act of war; that any sanctions or other activities against Russia is an act of war; that any action by any non-governmental group is an act of war; and, that pretty much breathing heavily is an act of war. In his mind, Vladimir is already at war with the U.S. and the West (and most of the rest of the world except China, for now). All is fair in war don’t you know.

The scary thing is, I think he believes he can get away with it all. That the current leadership of the U.S. lacks the will to respond to his use of nukes, or anything else. This grows out of his (extremely mistaken) belief that he could invade and both not be seriously opposed, but also that he would face no real sanctions or other retaliation from NATO or elsewhere. I think that when it comes to nukes, he is just as extremely mistaken but is too proud and too far gone to admit it.

So, you have a powerful man that is slipping, and sees his world literally and figuratively ending. You have his “buddies” who also see the potential for their worlds to end too, as reform and change come to Russia. You have others in the world who see their power and control slipping as well. I’ve noted before: I’ve never seen a time when pretty much every major world leader is weak and desperate. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was premised on the least stable leader doing something stupid (for all it claimed that even someone so stupid wouldn’t do anything). What happens when no leader is secure and stable? We’re likely to find out here soon.

At my most optimistic, barring some unforeseen event(s) changing the situation, I think the odds are about 60/40 for one or more nukes to go off. In my more pessimistic moments, which are growing, I’m seeing about an 80 percent chance. Add in idiots who think Vladimir is bluffing about the use of nukes (he’s not, he’s following doctrine and is crazy enough to think it will work), and I actually may raise that a bit.

Vladimir sees the doctrine, and is depending on brutality to keep him in power as it has done so far. From jailing those who oppose him (in almost any way) and killing ex-pats via nerve agents, to threats of war and worse to get away with major military activities against neighbors, brutality is his way. If he uses nukes in the Ukraine, even with maskirova as doctrine demands, it will not work out for him. I think it will galvanize the Ukranians to the point they will bleed any occupier white. I think it will bring about retaliation from his neighbors, NATO, and more — which is where I am concerned that Dead Hand could come into play. If you are going out, he is of the mindset to take everyone with him.

Want all this to happen faster? Bring NATO or any member into the fight. The idiots here who are calling for any form of No Fly Zone want a war, and are just as stupid as Vladimir in believing that it will be a short victorious war. Or one that they can make bank on, and I think they are wrong on that too. Commander Salamander makes some very good points on that.

Right now, in my opinion, there are few good options. Even regime change in Russia via the Russians has its perils. Especially since the head of the military is a Putin loyalist. Something quick and clean might work, but anything else can lead to a civil war, or give someone desperate time to try to take everyone else with them. All we can do in many respects is hope and pray for the best. And make all due preparations for the worst. If you aren’t already into preparedness, well, it’s almost never too late.

If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

For something different, yet another reason to move to the SW other than being hit by lightning.

I really wanted to post this a few weeks ago, but life seemed determined to keep me offline. Perhaps it is well, for instead of a single list, I want to talk a bit about the lists we need for what is to come.

First, make a note of those who support violent responses to peaceful protest. From the RCMP who bragged openly about wanting to bash heads and trample people simply for disagreeing with the government, to those here in the US — particularly those in law enforcement — who agreed with them. Make a note of those not in LE who did so. Most of all, be sure to make a note of your “friends” and family who did so.

Then, cut those people out of your life. Family or other politics may make it where you have to stay “friends” with them, but they no longer need access to your home or to have the first clue about plans, vacation destinations or bug out plans. If push comes to shove, yes, you should be ready to do unto them before they can do unto you, because trust me, they will cheerfully do unto you just as fast as they would a stranger. You are no longer real, but othered. Accept it, plan for it, move on.

Look for those with whom you share common bonds, and who aren’t going all fascist. Make a list. These are people who can be of mutual assistance later.

Then, make a list of the things you need to survive (and survive with comfort is even better). Those you don’t have, start getting. Make a list based on priorities, and work your way down it as you can. It’s going to be getting harder and harder as we blast into record prices, inflation, and recession if not depression.

Make those lists, and be prepared to implement them.

As always, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or do the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Thank you for taking the time to read my blog, and for all the help and prayers that have been offered. Please know they are very much appreciated.

First, to answer a question I saw elsewhere: Yes, I am Laughing Wolf who used to post at Blackfive. I started here, had the honor of being asked to be an author there as well, and continue here as I can.

Yes, I did get hit by lightning. Yes, it has led to a number of health and related issues. Yes, it did lead to open heart surgery. No, we still don’t have everything under control. Hence my effort to start A New Life. More info on parts of this through that link, as well as the archives here.

Am I out of my flippin mind? Well, that’s debatable (even though the neuro people tell me I’m good for now post strike). When it comes to Vladimir and the Ukraine, I don’t think I am, though I am sure there are some (including those now crying that they alone understand all that is going on) who would beg to differ. I make no claim to having a lock on things, only observations that may or may not be getting a lot of play elsewhere.

As for my thoughts on cyberwar and the use of nukes, some background is in order. I’ve talked about the subject before, but everything going on now revolves strongly around the concept of mores. No, not s’mores or anything like it, but the concept pronounced MORE-A-zzz. These are the cultural blinders we all wear, that how things are done around here is the way they are done elsewhere. Within the intelligence game, it is probably the single largest unforced error routinely made. While analysts suffer from it, politicians seem particularly adept at falling into the trap.

Politician A presumes that how power and corruption take place in location A is universal. Yet, how it is done in location B can be, and often is, very different. In location A, a great deal of public attention may be given to “listening to the people” even as the people are ignored as the real deals are made behind the scene (Indiana statehouse caucus sessions for one example). In location B, however, there may not be as much public pomp on listening to the people even as things happen in an even more bare-knuckled way. It also can come down to the same words or phrases having very different meanings. For example, peace can be defined as a condition where a variety of groups coexist without strife; or, it can be defined as the absence of all opposition. Two very different meanings.

Right now, we are dealing with a combination of definitional differences as well as different ways of operating. In Vladimir’s world, there is no such thing as independent actions by groups. Groups that do such only do so if their actions are approved in advance, otherwise they and their leadership tend to get gutted. A hacking group taking on the West in response to provocations against the Rodina? Approved in advance and usually orchestrated at the behest of the government so as to avoid official acts. If you think the shoot down of a civilian airliner by dissidents in “breakaway” segments of the Ukraine happened without the knowledge and full approval of Vladimir, you’re nuts.

Right now, you are getting a lot of warnings like this one because even if you took Vladmir and other top Russian leaders on a ghost-of-Christmas-X type trip and showed them Anonymous and other groups deciding to act on their own, they literally would be unable to believe it because it is so far outside of how things work in their world. Their brains would boggle. Because of that, they see every unofficial action as being a covert official action. Add to it the previously discussed NGO issue, and what sounds like paranoid conspiracy theory to us sounds like something perfectly rational to them.

Now, add in a Vladimir who has shown signs to many (including me) of mental deterioration. Does that mean he’s completely lost it and unfit? No. It simply means he is not tracking as well as he used to in at least some areas. Does he appear to be taking some things far more personally than he used to? In my opinion, yes. And there’s part of the rub.

He knew going in that there would be sanctions, grandstanding, and other twaddle in response to the invasion. Yet, I don’t think he expected the extent or level of response, given that little to nothing realistic was done after his doing the same thing to Georgia years back; the shootdown of the airliner; or even his previous operations in the Ukraine. The fact that his invasion has forced the Germans to rearm and re-assess (one hopes they will actually do something concrete instead of continuing to fellate Vladimir); that the Finns (and others) are now looking at joining NATO (and if there was anyone, anywhere, who didn’t predict this response to the threat from Russia, they are ignorant of the Finns and history, and probably too stupid to breathe on their own); and, that the sanctions are harder, deeper, and more personal than ever before. Now, add to that the actions of Anonymous and other groups, which they see is covert action by one or more Western governments….

I will note that it is not necessarily a sign of mental deterioration that Vladimir apparently believed all the good readiness reports from the military. One, the Red Army, Soviet or Russian, was/is noted for gundecking reports on a regular basis. Two, it is pretty much an international (hell, probably intergalactic) phenomena for militaries to tell leaders what they want to hear, rather than reality.

However, I think he was surprised by both the strength of the resistance and how badly the military failed. This report (hat tip Insty) shows a lot of the why, and that clearly the logistics required for any form of shock-and-awe were not only there but unlikely to have been practiced on any realistic scale at any time. It also suggests a tactic for the irregular forces since taking out truck tires (that they can’t replace) does not require large caliber weapons, and would allow them to play Finland 1939 to great effect. If in the next few weeks they are foolish enough to get off into the mud, break out the horses and Hakka Palle!

At the failure of the initial effort, the Ukraine won some key battles on several levels. Make no mistake, these were much needed and hard won victories. That said, they now face some very hard choices. Thwarted in his initial ambitions, Vladimir will be quite content to go back to slow, ruthless, and grinding. He’s quite content to feed troops into the furnace as quantity makes up for quality. The Ukraine is likely to lose in the long term, as much of their country, along with standing armies, are destroyed. They have hard choices to make now and in the next few days. To prevent the complete destruction of many military units, they will need to break out to the West and reform, which means giving up, for now at least, the eastern third of the country. It could mean giving up the eastern two thirds of the country. They key is getting as many units and troops out of encirclement by the Russians and keeping the Ukrainian military alive as a viable fighting force.

Now, though, comes the fun part. Vladimir, nor anyone else involved, is operating in a vacuum though to read many reports and analyses you would think otherwise. There is a great deal of synergistic “energy” involved as well.

Cyberwarfare is ongoing and escalating. The efforts by Anonymous and other groups are being taken as covert governmental attacks, and as such any response is, in the eyes of Vladimir and others, fully justified. It is going to get worse, I suspect much worse.

The logistics problems of the Red Army can’t be overstated. Tires are only one part, and none of the parts can be replaced in the quantities needed. This not only effects military operations (and budgets), but the civilian economy as well. They can grind the Ukraine under, but if they do so they are likely to be a shadow of what they once were. Even if they maintain minimal capability, others are no longer scared of them because it has been shown they CAN be beaten by much weaker foes.

The sanctions are hurting their economy in ways they never dreamed. Your average Russian now can’t use Apple Pay or other systems for everyday expenses — and they were massive users of such systems. It is hitting them hard. The oligarchs are now running scared, just look at the number of them moving their yachts (which are targets of some actions) away from Europe and into the Indian Ocean. That’s just the tip of the iceberg as it were, and the oligarchs and the economy are taking a beating since not even Switzerland is a safe haven for funds (or anything else) anymore.

Now, Vladimir and his captive (and non-captive) oligarchs face some tough choices. Vladimir has already shown, as I mentioned before, that he has upped his personal paranoia/security. Doesn’t mean he can’t be reached, just that it will be more difficult. So, don’t necessarily expect much direct and in person from the oligarchs or anyone else. There’s also a reason he’s at his bunker in the Urals… Now, away from him, well, the military can effectively choose to ignore certain orders (especially strategic nuclear) and get away with it. He can be isolated, and that is a possibility. That said, I don’t expect it anytime soon.

He is still in charge. He is unlikely to commit to grinding the Ukraine under conventionally if it will gut the military as it could. Even if he could do so, it is unlikely that other leadership, civilian or military, would allow it. Which brings us to the use of special weapons. There are already reports of thermobaric weapons being used. I expect to see more, and more open, use of same. That said, keep in mind that both Soviet and Russian military doctrine have long called for the use of nuclear weapons. Unlike the West, they don’t have a bright and shiny line that clearly differentiates between tactical and strategic use. Their line is more, er, flexible. Remember mores in this context, as we are going to see most uses as strategic rather than tactical simply because of how our military and civilian theoreticians view it. Also keep in mind that per their doctrine, the use of a nuclear weapon is not an attack but a response. If we respond in kind, they are going to see THAT as an attack and an escalation based on their mores. My thoughts on their doctrines for preventing full escalation are not printable, any more than I respect some of the similar on our side.

One area where I see the potential for special weapon use is in the west, near the border with Poland. In fact, I’m a bit surprised that we have not already seen Belorussian forces attacking south and west in an effort to block the resupply of the Ukraine. If it happens, I don’t expect them to be shy about incursions into Poland or Polish airspace even though it is poking NATO; and, the Poles are unlikely to tolerate such on their own. Yes, we should have been front-loading them with weapons for months, but you are asking for competence out of the same gang that gave us the Afghanistan withdrawal (and if you don’t think that debacle didn’t encourage Putin in this…). Right now, the weapons, ammunition, humanitarian supplies are crucial — and frankly even more exposed than the current targets in the east. If the full weight of airpower is brought in to cut off the lines of resupply…

None of the decisions to come will be made in a vacuum. Vladimir wants/needs his cordon sanitaire if he is to have any shot at his dream of a new Russian Empire/restored Soviet Union. He’s very serious about that, and while I think he’s overplayed his hand it doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a hand to play. He is going to respond to everything that happens through the lens of his mores, as will those around him. Right now, they see their way of life as being threatened with extinction, and are unlikely to simply calmly accept such. When you look at the doctrines, the fix they are in, and all the other factors, the odds of things suddenly getting happily-ever-after are pretty fucking slim. The odds of them going seriously pear shaped are much higher even if someone took Vladimir completely out of the equation right now.

So, there’s your cheery thoughts for the day. I hope and pray for good decisions and effects, but also acknowledge that the chances of bad decisions or outcomes is — sadly — much higher. All we can do is hope and pray for the best, and wait to see what comes. Meantime, make what preparations you can.

If you like what you are reading, hope you might help me out. You can hit the tip jar in the upper right, or I’m also working on A New Life following the lightning str