Category: Current Events

Aside from mores (see discussion here), one of the most common mistakes in analysis comes from thinking that the events taking place are a single jigsaw puzzle. That if we can just find all the pieces and get them in place, the picture will be complete and allow complete understanding of who, what, why, when, etc.

Real life, however, is never that neat. No matter how hard anyone, analyst or politician, tries to pound things flat into and into that ideal picture, the 3-D mess just keeps popping back up. For any given event, there are a large number of puzzles in play, and what makes life fun is trying to figure out not only what pieces you have (and don’t have), but to which puzzle they belong. Some actually belong to several puzzles at once. Fun!

In this case, the “main” jigsaw puzzle is the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Far too many are presenting it as a nice, simple, 2-d event. What’s worse, some of those so doing are setting policy, and 2-d policy rarely works in what truly is almost an ♾-1 environment. As for others, well, social media is full of them.

Within this puzzle reside quite a few others. In fact, the actual number of puzzles/dimensions is a bit staggering, so I’m going to try to simplify it without over-simplifying it.

In any respects, the prime intersecting puzzle is Vladimir Putin himself. Yet, his puzzle is made up of many more puzzles. His health is one, as I am more convinced than ever that he has mentally deteriorated. I don’t know if it is because he joined the Branch Covidian cult, or if that was just a symptom. It is clear, however, that he has slipped a few moorings and that those are most obvious in certain professional aspects. While it is pure speculation, a part of me suspects that he has came face-to-face with his mortality a few years ago, and it scared him. He is scared of death, and considers that being forced out and/or the system being changed is a form of death or will lead to death. His power is not nearly as secure as many seem to think. Pro tip: desperate people do stupid things.

His relationships with his fellow oligarchs is several other puzzles. Even allowing for a bit of flattening to reduce the number, this is one of the key elements in what is happening and what will happen. And before you start jumping to conclusions, you really do need to read this excellent article on how things work (or don’t work) in Russia. A friend posted the link on social media, and my hat is off to that friend and the author of the article. It gets how things work and explains it in a way even a politician can understand. No, they don’t do things like we do; they never have, and, they never will. The why’s have to do with history, the systems, and with culture.

To get back to the puzzles that are his relationships with his fellow oligarchs: it is complex as some like him, some hate him, some see him as inconvenient to their plans to move up and gain more power. All, however, are unlikely to want to upset the apple cart as doing so puts them all at risk, and a good bit of what is happening right now stems from the perceived risk of the current order being overturned. They see the potential for their world to end, and it terrifies them. Pro tip: desperate people do stupid things.

Now, there is the puzzle of his dream of a new Imperial Russia. For all that he seems convinced that the current Russian Army is the old Red Army, Vladimir is NOT a Soviet Communist. Exercise for the reader/student: look up who he does subscribe to. Short version, he — along with quite a number of influential and/or hardliners — believe that communism was an import to the Rodina that poisoned her. That because it came from outside it didn’t, wouldn’t, and couldn’t work there. Again, a bit of a simplification but the asinine idea that he wants to restore the Soviet Union seems to be everywhere. And, again, this puzzle is a major part of why he is frantic to have a new cordon sanitaire in place to keep Western (and other) ideals and practices away from the Rodina lest they poison her and lead to the system changing.

Then there is the puzzle of Putin and the military. Really, the military and intelligence functions, but lets go with the shorthand for now. As always, there are multiple puzzles here. First up, it seems fairly clear that he was not getting accurate reports on the state of the military, nor was he getting good intel on enemy preparations, operations, and general attitudes. I include the U.S. in that part, though the majority of this puzzle should concentrate on the Ukraine. Outside of that, it is clear that the response of most of the world caught Vladimir by surprise.

Tied into these puzzles are the quality and quantity of the briefings he has been given. As noted previously, the Red Army was noted for gundecking reports and it would appear the current Russian Army has continued the tradition. Keep in mind that the Russian Army is a conscript army, as that has huge implications. There is some word that while the KGB may be gone, zampolits and special troops/police to make the troops obey still exist. That said, they can’t be everywhere and the number of troops who have been captured or just surrendered is a sign of that as well.

A key puzzle in this mix is tactical and doctrine training. While the grunts have only a limited exposure to this, and keep in mind they do not have the strong NCO base that we do in our troops, their officers do. How realistic is that training? That may prove to be a major point, especially when it comes to nuclear doctrine. The Russians have continued with the Soviet thought that tactical weapons can be used, multiple times and locations, without retaliation. They view such use as justified, while any similar response is an escalation of the conflict.

While I mentioned intel above, the relationship between Vladimir and the FSB is another major puzzle. There are multiple reports that elements of the FSB have given warning, intel, and more to the Ukrainians. That is huge, and indicates that Putin’s control over the bureaucracy has slipped in a major way. It is going to add to his sense of desperation. Remember the pro tip.

There are more levels and puzzles, but you get the idea. There are several things bothering me in terms of missing pieces.

First missing piece that fits in several puzzles: endgame. If Vladimir’s entire goal was to take over the Ukraine, then his mental slippage is worse than I can imagine. It is clear he (and his advisors) misread the response to his actions. Vladimir of old would have had some fallbacks, even if he thought he could get away with it. And, yes, he did think that as he’s never been called out on Georgia, previous incursions into the Ukraine, shooting down the civilian airliner, or anything else. That said, he used to plan for things not to go perfectly, not depend on them doing so.

Was he maneuvered into this war? It is possible, and not just by some in the West. He’s not alone in the idea of a new Imperial Russia. I will note that Archbishop Vigano does raise some interesting points and — to my mind — questions.

Missing Piece Two: lack of video/other of combat. There is some, but there is a dearth of helmet cam and related, and not a lot from the South where there clearly is fighting underway. We see a lot of the aftermath, but not a lot of the events themselves. This video shows a small bit, but the context we are used to seeing from our own troops and others is missing.

Missing Piece Three: the nuclear chain. Yes, Vladimir has threatened to use nukes, and to even go strategic. He has apparently ordered nuclear-capable artillery into the fray. Yet, we are not (currently) getting reports of either movement of nuclear weapons or that Dead Hand has gone on alert, at least not beyond the televised order given to stand up a nuclear response. I hope neither pops up, but some of the dog-not-barking has me wondering if Vladimir may not be cut out of some of the nuclear loop. Part of me hopes he is, and yet the implications of that are terrifying. Also, do I trust our leadership here and elsewhere in NATO to warn us if there is movement of the nukes? No. In fact, I would place money on them lying about it, at least at first. Sadly, a safe bet.

There are some other missing pieces, but this is a post and not a book. Before anyone starts baying: no, I am not saying the war is a fake one. I am saying that there are elements we are not getting, and the why on that is important. I’m also not saying the Ukraine is going to win: Putin can grind them down simply with volume, though the cost of so doing will destroy the Russian Army and economy, and bring him and his buddies down. Keep in mind what people facing the end of their world might do, as it is unlikely to be a “smart” thing.

I am going to say that the rest of the world appears to owe the Ukraine a huge thank you. One thing they have done with their resistance is to destroy the myth of the mighty and invincible Red Army, er, Russian Army. What we have is a poorly trained army with nasty logistical issues. If you think some of the countries now openly defying Putin would have done so before this, I have a bridge you would be interested in purchasing for a sweet deal. This is also going to have an effect on China and its operations, or at least how things are viewed. You know Taiwan is making notes. How well they may apply is the question.

One more puzzle for you though. There appear to be two wars going on in the Ukraine. You have the north, which is getting almost all the press and attention. Then, you have the South, which is not getting the attention it should. I would also note that based on what I am seeing and hearing, the leadership of the Russians in the South seems to have it together, which is not the case in the North/East. Different terrain and other factors, but there is a huge difference. Pay attention.

Now, to the bad news from my reading of the tea leaves. Vladimir quite literally can’t pull back at this point. Not only are his troops in the North/East bogged down (literally in some cases), he has not achieved any of his major objectives. While Zelensky has offered to negotiate, and even make some major concessions, I don’t see it going anywhere. What Putin wants and needs is complete capitulation. He craves having a cordon sanitaire like a junkie needs a fix.

Vladimir can go for the long haul and simply grind the Ukrainian Army down. The problem is, as noted earlier, he can’t afford the economic costs and the political costs are going to be unacceptably high to him. He may, I hope, begin to have an idea of how the Ukrainian people are likely to respond to being occupied. One of the reasons for his attacks on civilians right now is to establish the brutality he will have to use to maintain control and order. If you read the linked article above, this brutality has a purpose that goes far beyond a mere madman being mad. He is seeking to break their spirit now, in hopes of a more peaceful (absence of all opposition) later.

So, what’s between the short victorious war that he never had a chance of and a long, drawn-out war of attrition? Soviet and Russian doctrine says (opens envelope, reads): nukes. If we get lucky, he will open up the thermobaric arsenal first; but, doctrine calls for tactical nukes with strategic being used to dissuade retaliation. Keep in mind, also, that he has already made clear that any action of any type to help the Ukraine is an act of war; that any sanctions or other activities against Russia is an act of war; that any action by any non-governmental group is an act of war; and, that pretty much breathing heavily is an act of war. In his mind, Vladimir is already at war with the U.S. and the West (and most of the rest of the world except China, for now). All is fair in war don’t you know.

The scary thing is, I think he believes he can get away with it all. That the current leadership of the U.S. lacks the will to respond to his use of nukes, or anything else. This grows out of his (extremely mistaken) belief that he could invade and both not be seriously opposed, but also that he would face no real sanctions or other retaliation from NATO or elsewhere. I think that when it comes to nukes, he is just as extremely mistaken but is too proud and too far gone to admit it.

So, you have a powerful man that is slipping, and sees his world literally and figuratively ending. You have his “buddies” who also see the potential for their worlds to end too, as reform and change come to Russia. You have others in the world who see their power and control slipping as well. I’ve noted before: I’ve never seen a time when pretty much every major world leader is weak and desperate. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was premised on the least stable leader doing something stupid (for all it claimed that even someone so stupid wouldn’t do anything). What happens when no leader is secure and stable? We’re likely to find out here soon.

At my most optimistic, barring some unforeseen event(s) changing the situation, I think the odds are about 60/40 for one or more nukes to go off. In my more pessimistic moments, which are growing, I’m seeing about an 80 percent chance. Add in idiots who think Vladimir is bluffing about the use of nukes (he’s not, he’s following doctrine and is crazy enough to think it will work), and I actually may raise that a bit.

Vladimir sees the doctrine, and is depending on brutality to keep him in power as it has done so far. From jailing those who oppose him (in almost any way) and killing ex-pats via nerve agents, to threats of war and worse to get away with major military activities against neighbors, brutality is his way. If he uses nukes in the Ukraine, even with maskirova as doctrine demands, it will not work out for him. I think it will galvanize the Ukranians to the point they will bleed any occupier white. I think it will bring about retaliation from his neighbors, NATO, and more — which is where I am concerned that Dead Hand could come into play. If you are going out, he is of the mindset to take everyone with him.

Want all this to happen faster? Bring NATO or any member into the fight. The idiots here who are calling for any form of No Fly Zone want a war, and are just as stupid as Vladimir in believing that it will be a short victorious war. Or one that they can make bank on, and I think they are wrong on that too. Commander Salamander makes some very good points on that.

Right now, in my opinion, there are few good options. Even regime change in Russia via the Russians has its perils. Especially since the head of the military is a Putin loyalist. Something quick and clean might work, but anything else can lead to a civil war, or give someone desperate time to try to take everyone else with them. All we can do in many respects is hope and pray for the best. And make all due preparations for the worst. If you aren’t already into preparedness, well, it’s almost never too late.

If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

For something different, yet another reason to move to the SW other than being hit by lightning.

I really wanted to post this a few weeks ago, but life seemed determined to keep me offline. Perhaps it is well, for instead of a single list, I want to talk a bit about the lists we need for what is to come.

First, make a note of those who support violent responses to peaceful protest. From the RCMP who bragged openly about wanting to bash heads and trample people simply for disagreeing with the government, to those here in the US — particularly those in law enforcement — who agreed with them. Make a note of those not in LE who did so. Most of all, be sure to make a note of your “friends” and family who did so.

Then, cut those people out of your life. Family or other politics may make it where you have to stay “friends” with them, but they no longer need access to your home or to have the first clue about plans, vacation destinations or bug out plans. If push comes to shove, yes, you should be ready to do unto them before they can do unto you, because trust me, they will cheerfully do unto you just as fast as they would a stranger. You are no longer real, but othered. Accept it, plan for it, move on.

Look for those with whom you share common bonds, and who aren’t going all fascist. Make a list. These are people who can be of mutual assistance later.

Then, make a list of the things you need to survive (and survive with comfort is even better). Those you don’t have, start getting. Make a list based on priorities, and work your way down it as you can. It’s going to be getting harder and harder as we blast into record prices, inflation, and recession if not depression.

Make those lists, and be prepared to implement them.

As always, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or do the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Thank you for taking the time to read my blog, and for all the help and prayers that have been offered. Please know they are very much appreciated.

First, to answer a question I saw elsewhere: Yes, I am Laughing Wolf who used to post at Blackfive. I started here, had the honor of being asked to be an author there as well, and continue here as I can.

Yes, I did get hit by lightning. Yes, it has led to a number of health and related issues. Yes, it did lead to open heart surgery. No, we still don’t have everything under control. Hence my effort to start A New Life. More info on parts of this through that link, as well as the archives here.

Am I out of my flippin mind? Well, that’s debatable (even though the neuro people tell me I’m good for now post strike). When it comes to Vladimir and the Ukraine, I don’t think I am, though I am sure there are some (including those now crying that they alone understand all that is going on) who would beg to differ. I make no claim to having a lock on things, only observations that may or may not be getting a lot of play elsewhere.

As for my thoughts on cyberwar and the use of nukes, some background is in order. I’ve talked about the subject before, but everything going on now revolves strongly around the concept of mores. No, not s’mores or anything like it, but the concept pronounced MORE-A-zzz. These are the cultural blinders we all wear, that how things are done around here is the way they are done elsewhere. Within the intelligence game, it is probably the single largest unforced error routinely made. While analysts suffer from it, politicians seem particularly adept at falling into the trap.

Politician A presumes that how power and corruption take place in location A is universal. Yet, how it is done in location B can be, and often is, very different. In location A, a great deal of public attention may be given to “listening to the people” even as the people are ignored as the real deals are made behind the scene (Indiana statehouse caucus sessions for one example). In location B, however, there may not be as much public pomp on listening to the people even as things happen in an even more bare-knuckled way. It also can come down to the same words or phrases having very different meanings. For example, peace can be defined as a condition where a variety of groups coexist without strife; or, it can be defined as the absence of all opposition. Two very different meanings.

Right now, we are dealing with a combination of definitional differences as well as different ways of operating. In Vladimir’s world, there is no such thing as independent actions by groups. Groups that do such only do so if their actions are approved in advance, otherwise they and their leadership tend to get gutted. A hacking group taking on the West in response to provocations against the Rodina? Approved in advance and usually orchestrated at the behest of the government so as to avoid official acts. If you think the shoot down of a civilian airliner by dissidents in “breakaway” segments of the Ukraine happened without the knowledge and full approval of Vladimir, you’re nuts.

Right now, you are getting a lot of warnings like this one because even if you took Vladmir and other top Russian leaders on a ghost-of-Christmas-X type trip and showed them Anonymous and other groups deciding to act on their own, they literally would be unable to believe it because it is so far outside of how things work in their world. Their brains would boggle. Because of that, they see every unofficial action as being a covert official action. Add to it the previously discussed NGO issue, and what sounds like paranoid conspiracy theory to us sounds like something perfectly rational to them.

Now, add in a Vladimir who has shown signs to many (including me) of mental deterioration. Does that mean he’s completely lost it and unfit? No. It simply means he is not tracking as well as he used to in at least some areas. Does he appear to be taking some things far more personally than he used to? In my opinion, yes. And there’s part of the rub.

He knew going in that there would be sanctions, grandstanding, and other twaddle in response to the invasion. Yet, I don’t think he expected the extent or level of response, given that little to nothing realistic was done after his doing the same thing to Georgia years back; the shootdown of the airliner; or even his previous operations in the Ukraine. The fact that his invasion has forced the Germans to rearm and re-assess (one hopes they will actually do something concrete instead of continuing to fellate Vladimir); that the Finns (and others) are now looking at joining NATO (and if there was anyone, anywhere, who didn’t predict this response to the threat from Russia, they are ignorant of the Finns and history, and probably too stupid to breathe on their own); and, that the sanctions are harder, deeper, and more personal than ever before. Now, add to that the actions of Anonymous and other groups, which they see is covert action by one or more Western governments….

I will note that it is not necessarily a sign of mental deterioration that Vladimir apparently believed all the good readiness reports from the military. One, the Red Army, Soviet or Russian, was/is noted for gundecking reports on a regular basis. Two, it is pretty much an international (hell, probably intergalactic) phenomena for militaries to tell leaders what they want to hear, rather than reality.

However, I think he was surprised by both the strength of the resistance and how badly the military failed. This report (hat tip Insty) shows a lot of the why, and that clearly the logistics required for any form of shock-and-awe were not only there but unlikely to have been practiced on any realistic scale at any time. It also suggests a tactic for the irregular forces since taking out truck tires (that they can’t replace) does not require large caliber weapons, and would allow them to play Finland 1939 to great effect. If in the next few weeks they are foolish enough to get off into the mud, break out the horses and Hakka Palle!

At the failure of the initial effort, the Ukraine won some key battles on several levels. Make no mistake, these were much needed and hard won victories. That said, they now face some very hard choices. Thwarted in his initial ambitions, Vladimir will be quite content to go back to slow, ruthless, and grinding. He’s quite content to feed troops into the furnace as quantity makes up for quality. The Ukraine is likely to lose in the long term, as much of their country, along with standing armies, are destroyed. They have hard choices to make now and in the next few days. To prevent the complete destruction of many military units, they will need to break out to the West and reform, which means giving up, for now at least, the eastern third of the country. It could mean giving up the eastern two thirds of the country. They key is getting as many units and troops out of encirclement by the Russians and keeping the Ukrainian military alive as a viable fighting force.

Now, though, comes the fun part. Vladimir, nor anyone else involved, is operating in a vacuum though to read many reports and analyses you would think otherwise. There is a great deal of synergistic “energy” involved as well.

Cyberwarfare is ongoing and escalating. The efforts by Anonymous and other groups are being taken as covert governmental attacks, and as such any response is, in the eyes of Vladimir and others, fully justified. It is going to get worse, I suspect much worse.

The logistics problems of the Red Army can’t be overstated. Tires are only one part, and none of the parts can be replaced in the quantities needed. This not only effects military operations (and budgets), but the civilian economy as well. They can grind the Ukraine under, but if they do so they are likely to be a shadow of what they once were. Even if they maintain minimal capability, others are no longer scared of them because it has been shown they CAN be beaten by much weaker foes.

The sanctions are hurting their economy in ways they never dreamed. Your average Russian now can’t use Apple Pay or other systems for everyday expenses — and they were massive users of such systems. It is hitting them hard. The oligarchs are now running scared, just look at the number of them moving their yachts (which are targets of some actions) away from Europe and into the Indian Ocean. That’s just the tip of the iceberg as it were, and the oligarchs and the economy are taking a beating since not even Switzerland is a safe haven for funds (or anything else) anymore.

Now, Vladimir and his captive (and non-captive) oligarchs face some tough choices. Vladimir has already shown, as I mentioned before, that he has upped his personal paranoia/security. Doesn’t mean he can’t be reached, just that it will be more difficult. So, don’t necessarily expect much direct and in person from the oligarchs or anyone else. There’s also a reason he’s at his bunker in the Urals… Now, away from him, well, the military can effectively choose to ignore certain orders (especially strategic nuclear) and get away with it. He can be isolated, and that is a possibility. That said, I don’t expect it anytime soon.

He is still in charge. He is unlikely to commit to grinding the Ukraine under conventionally if it will gut the military as it could. Even if he could do so, it is unlikely that other leadership, civilian or military, would allow it. Which brings us to the use of special weapons. There are already reports of thermobaric weapons being used. I expect to see more, and more open, use of same. That said, keep in mind that both Soviet and Russian military doctrine have long called for the use of nuclear weapons. Unlike the West, they don’t have a bright and shiny line that clearly differentiates between tactical and strategic use. Their line is more, er, flexible. Remember mores in this context, as we are going to see most uses as strategic rather than tactical simply because of how our military and civilian theoreticians view it. Also keep in mind that per their doctrine, the use of a nuclear weapon is not an attack but a response. If we respond in kind, they are going to see THAT as an attack and an escalation based on their mores. My thoughts on their doctrines for preventing full escalation are not printable, any more than I respect some of the similar on our side.

One area where I see the potential for special weapon use is in the west, near the border with Poland. In fact, I’m a bit surprised that we have not already seen Belorussian forces attacking south and west in an effort to block the resupply of the Ukraine. If it happens, I don’t expect them to be shy about incursions into Poland or Polish airspace even though it is poking NATO; and, the Poles are unlikely to tolerate such on their own. Yes, we should have been front-loading them with weapons for months, but you are asking for competence out of the same gang that gave us the Afghanistan withdrawal (and if you don’t think that debacle didn’t encourage Putin in this…). Right now, the weapons, ammunition, humanitarian supplies are crucial — and frankly even more exposed than the current targets in the east. If the full weight of airpower is brought in to cut off the lines of resupply…

None of the decisions to come will be made in a vacuum. Vladimir wants/needs his cordon sanitaire if he is to have any shot at his dream of a new Russian Empire/restored Soviet Union. He’s very serious about that, and while I think he’s overplayed his hand it doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a hand to play. He is going to respond to everything that happens through the lens of his mores, as will those around him. Right now, they see their way of life as being threatened with extinction, and are unlikely to simply calmly accept such. When you look at the doctrines, the fix they are in, and all the other factors, the odds of things suddenly getting happily-ever-after are pretty fucking slim. The odds of them going seriously pear shaped are much higher even if someone took Vladimir completely out of the equation right now.

So, there’s your cheery thoughts for the day. I hope and pray for good decisions and effects, but also acknowledge that the chances of bad decisions or outcomes is — sadly — much higher. All we can do is hope and pray for the best, and wait to see what comes. Meantime, make what preparations you can.

If you like what you are reading, hope you might help me out. You can hit the tip jar in the upper right, or I’m also working on A New Life following the lightning str