Corruption, Abramovich, Massacres, And More — It’s Far From Over

I’m linking to this scary video again, because it is important. How important? Go read this from Trent Telenko to see how the corruption has effected operations and casualties. It is also going to hamper upcoming operations, and, yes, there is more coming. If you doubt it, go read this from Kamil Galeev. Then, note the multiple reports of supplies and troops being stripped from elsewhere to go reinforce the troops getting ready for “secondary” operations in the East/Donbas, and the South.

Vladimir needs, not wants, needs a victory. What he has now, no one important sees as a victory. There are a number of pressures at work here, and the absolute need to have some major victory by 9 May is more intense than many here in the West realize.

Given the fecklessness (and general incompetence) of the Biden administration, he could gain a victory via any peace process that involves the U.S. He could also get it by the “De-Escalation” faction within the Biden administration which, sadly, I don’t think is as dead as Trent Telenko does. All they have to do is keep dragging their feet on delivering the supplies already promised and the Ukraine won’t make it. They need everything we’ve promised, and more, if they are to beat back the next offensive and/or continue to hold out. Some of the tactics used this time (flooding, for example) won’t work again.

Vladimir also needs a good excuse to do more than what has been stated as being the next stage. He needs a series of provocations to resume operations against Kyiv and the greater Ukraine, provocations the Ukraine is unlikely to give him. I would expect to see an escalating series of incidents that are maskirova for that purpose, and if they also opened the door to WMD it would not be surprising. In fact, I am afraid that is exactly what is being planned. Especially since he is having massive trouble getting troops that will fight into place, getting troops replaced, and getting the supply situation as fixed as it can be fixed. I would say that to fix it, and fix it well, he needs weeks to months; and, he does not have that. That limits options.

In a somewhat related issue, I feel there are missing pieces to the puzzle around Roman Abramovich. When he first started flying around, pushing peace and such, I admit I thought he was doing so with Vladimir’s blessing. After all, it would not hurt anything to have an unofficial conduit out there that could be used no matter what. This despite the fact that I felt Abramovich was one of the oligarchs that he was accusing of treason, of being too Western and wanting to live in the West rather than in Russia. In fact, using him as an unofficial contact would make a lot of sense in terms of the great game. Besides, Abramovich doesn’t have a reputation for being stupid and anyone who did what he did without Vladimir’s open or covert approval should know they have put a target on their back.

Then came the poisoning reports. Maskirova or real? From some things that I’m picking up, it is looking like it might actually be real. If I were Abramovich, I would not only be significantly upgrading my security (and adding radiation detectors to my homes, boats, and dinner service, along with tasters), I would not return to Russia. Parts of this still don’t seem to fit, and it will be interesting to see what happens in the days ahead.

There are multiple reports of the execution of civilians and various massacres coming out now that Russian troops are withdrawing. Do I expect to see a lot of Ukrainian (and Western) propaganda on that front? Indeed I do. Does that mean such things have not happened? No, because they truly have happened. The FSB does have kill lists, both of individuals and of various types/positions, that are to be eliminated. Period, dot. The FSB doesn’t blink at murdering hundreds of Russians at a time, why do so many persist in thinking they will have any compunction about killing hundreds or even thousands of Ukrainians? With all that is happening, they don’t really make a distinction between civilian and military, for both are resisting operations and being brought into Russkiy Mir. That makes them all the enemy, and if you are the enemy (foreign or domestic) then you should be eliminated. It is an old-fashioned mindset, and one far too many Western academics and “elites” can’t seem to wrap their heads around that they believe it and will act upon it. It’s just not how things are done! Grrrr. While salt will be needed a good bit with the reports to come, don’t dismiss what has happened out of hand. There are some nasty things likely to come out.

Given all, particularly the out-of-date supply chain and the need to strip so much from elsewhere, I expect to see Vladimir throw everything but the kitchen sink into the fray. I would almost be unsurprised if he didn’t try to revive a modern successor to the old KGB troops who ensured that Soviet troops would move forward and attack, or die in place. The pace is and will be rushed, as there artificial time constraints that are a factor. It will be an attempt at quantity to overwhelm, and possibly special weapons to overcome any issues that can’t be taken care of by quantity.

What the Ukraine has, however, is a united spirit that is amazing. I’ve written a bit about it before, but Michael Z. Williamson has shared something that if the intelligence agencies East and West were even remotely competent, would have change the assessment of what was going to happen years ago. Here’s the video he links.

SHOVEL || Ukrainian Army from Limelite on Vimeo.

For now, the Russian military is retreating and in disarray in several areas. The Ukraine should be digging in, setting up new traps and means to delay or otherwise stymie offensive operations everywhere. It is a given that barring something completely massive and unexpected, the Russians will resume offensive operations and those are not likely to be limited to the “official” areas listed.

For all that the U.S. and the West need to tread carefully, the promises made to the Ukraine on supplies need to be met. Without them, they will fight and die gallantly, but Vladimir will take the territory. Holding it is another matter, but he can and will take it. With the supplies, however, and proper preparations, the new offensive can be stopped as well. Mayhaps those preparations should include nuclear preparations as well. Maybe tomorrow I will go back and pick that thread up from a previous post.

Meantime, I’m hoping this week is a time of review, evaluate, and otherwise appreciate the lowered tempo of operations. Enjoy it while you can, for no one knows how long it will last.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add


Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update


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