Category: Military

Bravo!

Sorry for the lack of posting, been fighting a sinus infection and other smaller issues. Took some time to rest and heal a bit.

The operation by whomever (cough, Israel has not officially said it was them, cough) to take out Hezballess (HT Chris Loesch as apparent originator) operatives was masterful. On several levels even.

First, it was fairly precise targeting, which limited (nothing can eliminate the possibility of) “civilian” casualties. Limiting the explosive to one or two ounces helped guarantee limitation of collateral damage. Those who are screaming otherwise, and that it was against the rules of war, are both wrong and far more upset that their favored side was hurt and that the Jews dared defend themselves instead of just lining up for the slaughter. By their words and actions, they reveal who and what they are. Make notes.

Second, if they could intercept and do this to THOUSANDS of pagers, do you think they wouldn’t be able to also use those devices to track locations, monitor communications, and more? Months of data, and just the location data alone would have revealed locations and more. Where did they meet? With whom did they meet? Where did they go when things got hot? The so-called meta data on this is tremendous on its own. If they literally did get inside their coms and were reading the mail…

Third, most interesting that the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon had a Hezballess-issued pager. Not surprising in the least, but interesting. Even more interesting is that a rumor is making the rounds that the pagers were altered in Iran. For those that aren’t familiar with how things like this work, it is not likely that Hezballess placed a direct order with Gold Apollo for the pagers. Because of sanctions and other delights, there would have been cut-outs, middle-men, and such in play. Odds are good that various blinds and fronts were used by the IRGC to get them and have them shipped indirectly to Iran. From there, they would then go to Hezballess.

Now, think back to the recent assassination (that made the news) allegedly by Israel (who once again has not claimed credit) inside Iran. That one set a cat amongst the pigeons in Iran as members of the IRGC (and possibly others) were implicated. Nice little round of purges and accusations got going before being stomped out by Iran’s top leadership. Lots of hard feelings, suspicions, and upset at not being able to eliminate internal enemies (political) on the part of several it would seem. Now there is this. Openly or not, the cat is back amongst the pigeons and there is a good chance of all heck breaking loose. Let your enemies attack themselves is an ancient and honorable concept, and I think it just got played beautifully.

Fourth, if you think Israel wasn’t watching the hospitals and other locations to see who came in and when, and wasn’t monitoring local social media for news and IDs, I’ve got a bridge for sale… Again, no way for them to know in advance who all the members of Hezballess were. They do now, and can plot that against all the intel from the metadata and…

Oh, and as for those who are screaming about doctors having pagers too, note that only doctors (and other medical types) who were members of Hezballess were issued “augmented” pagers. No danger to honest medical types, only terrorists. See the above about those who are upset as their side was hurt and no Jews died. It applies to those making this argument too.

Fifth, whomever did this just took Hezballess pretty much offline. In many respects, not just temporarily. Lots of damage, including lost hands, fingers, etc. Those that raised up to look at the mesage (a la the Iranian ambassador) have eye damage if not permanently blinded. When you are talking several thousand injured simultaneously, you’ve taken major units (and potentially several thousand others) out and rendered them combat ineffective. If Israel gets lucky, some of those having to take command are not truly fit for such and are going to do stupid things. Stupid things always, ALWAYS, open doors for the enemy, and one presumes Israel is prepared to take full advantage of such openly and covertly.

If you also go in and hit some of the critical centers you’ve already identified, you can do a lot of de-fanging. Funny that I heard reports that Israel hit a number of targets in Southern Lebanon last night…

Also smart is that Israel (if they did it, cough) was smart enough not to tell the U.S. in advance. Good thing, as in hours after U.S. officials were allegedly briefed on the op that details were leaked to corporate media, who promptly spilled the beans. Leaks to hurt Israel were the rule (and specialty) of the Obama admin, so no surprise that such continues now. Cough. One hopes that such a briefing left out key details and may have even included daisy or two. That is, information that may be true (or not) but is not precise and is intended to send people down the wrong path. After all, it’s not the first time the current admin (cough) has done such to hurt Israel. Know your enemy and use them accordingly.

One more positive benefit out of the op is that right now, terrorists everywhere are looking at their coms and going “oh bleep.” I guarantee you some have ditched pagers and other items in panic. Why? What if it wasn’t just Hezballess that was targeted? Who do you think supplies coms to Hamass, Hooties, and others around the world? Also, if one country did this, what’s to say others have not and would not do this? What this has done is to create mass uncertainty and to emulate Hamass and go as much as possible to in person and courier communications. Which will slow things down and bring up yet other opportunities for infiltration and co-option. I mean they could go carrier pigeon, but with drones and/or the amount of explosive you can fit in or on a pigeon… Just sayin…

There are some other points but I’m going to skip them for now. Especially if this was not a one-off use-or-lose op. What I will say is BRAVO! and bow in respect to a mastercraft operation. Whoever did this, my hat is off to you.

UPDATE I: The next round has begun, with radios and other devices exploding across Lebanon. What I said two paragraphs above is now playing out in the open: no electronics are safe. Terrorists around the world are having to look at all coms, and even solar chargers, as compromised. When even your battery charger can explode, there is nothing you can trust. Also, you may find the first explosive charge, but what if there is a second, hidden/camouflaged charge in the device? I mean the children and grandchildren of Pride-of-Dupont have come a long way since it pretended to be paper orders after all. Remind me tomorrow to talk about other potential Christmas Gifts/Easter Eggs of which we need be concerned.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Quick SITREP 3Sept24

Hope to get back to regular posting here soon, but until then here are a few things of note.

Keep an eye on both Brazil and Venezuela. Brazil is getting a lot of splash over how they are going after Elon, but there is a good bit more going on not getting a lot of coverage. Most of this revolves around internal politics and Lula and his socialist buddies trying to cement permanent power. There is reason to believe our own government is in this up to its ears, from the “election” of Lula on to the current assault on free speech. That said, this could backfire big time on Lula and his merry gang of socialists, and it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

Venezuela could tip over into real revolution, but for now most of the outside players are all talk and no real walk. The only “action” so far is the U.S. catching Maduro’s plane (sort of his AF1) in another country (for maintenance?) and getting said country’s agreement to let the U.S. seize it and fly it to the U.S.

Also, keep on eye on France. While U.S. media is focused on Durov and the implied threat to Elon, don’t overlook what is going on in regards their last elections. Macaroon, who apparently wants to be president-for-life, has formally stated he is going to ignore the elections and will not be seating a Prime Minister from the winning party. Apparently the winners of the election are mean poopy heads who threaten our democracy and he’s just not going to go along with it. The winners of the election, however, are not happy about this and proceeding with legal options that could result in Macaroon being removed from office. Maybe. They may get this settled legally, though it will leave a very shaky, fragile, and brittle Fifth Republic. It could also end up much messier and with the start of the Sixth Republic.

In regards Durov and Telegram, there is reason to believe some elements of the U.S. government may be involved behind the scenes. A short and simplistic take: Durov would not play along with France and it’s intelligence agencies, or at least not to the level they wanted. Didn’t take a lot of suggestion or pushing for France to decide to step things up, especially as a precursor for their (France and EU) upcoming war with Elon and X. Besides, if Elon sees Durov go down, their take is it might make him more agreeable to their demands. I think they are flat flippin wrong on that, but it fits. This also ties into efforts by various elements of the U.S. to use France and the EU to censor content they don’t like on their behalf (legalities/plausible deniability). BTW, if you think Telegram is secure, and completely adversarial to Vladimir and Company, think again. If I find a link to a good analysis I saw a couple of weeks ago, will add it. User beware.

Now to Turkey. If you missed it, a anti-American “youth” group (didn’t look like kids to me) attacked and/or tried to kidnap one or more American troops on liberty in Turkey. Five Marines showed up and things did not go to plan. For all that the group is not a part of Edrogan’s party officially, you can bet this was not some spontaneous act. If it had been, the response of the local authorities would have been very different. However, I tend towards the “unofficially approved” camp as it ties in too neatly with Dedrogan’s plans. Note that he has now formally and openly applied to be a part of BRICS. Interesting timing, no?

It also puts NATO and the U.S. in a bit of a tight spot. Really hard to be a member of NATO and of BRICS, sort of like trying to be a member of NATO and the old Warsaw Pact at the same time. Add to it that both have also been counting on Turkey keeping warships out of the Black Sea and controlling traffic in a “neutral” manner (which benefits Ukraine), and that we have counted on our base(s) there for strategic positioning… Plus, there has long been a matter of some materials and such at Incirlik that make things even more touchy. The fact that we’ve had (this year alone) some opportunities to deal with those issues and failed to do so doesn’t surprise me. My thoughts on current military leadership, uniformed and civilian, isn’t high. Cough. Dealing with such now will be fraught.

Meantime, my thought to start is: cancel all port calls, resupply contracts, repair contracts, and stop all joint activities with the Turkish navy. Move port calls and contracts to Greece maybe. As for stopping joint training, well, things are tense, we need to be ready and elsewhere for now, maybe later, no hard feelings, etc., etc., etc. (/Yul Brenner Voice). Oh, and have the Wasp depart ASAP if that is not already underway. Again, given our current leadership I don’t expect much of anything to be done, and if it starts to go sideways expect them to handle things about as well as they did Afghanistan.

Quick note. I have removed Kamil Galeev from the Intel list. While his work on the history of Russia and the philosophical and other underpinnings of modern Russia and what is going on there now are brilliant, I just read some of his work in regards Israel and I can’t condone, support, or ignore. Condemn is in there though. I hadn’t been reading him in a while as I was focused elsewhere, and regret I didn’t catch it sooner.

Also, there’s something weird (weirder than usual) going on in Moscow. Hard to tell what is going on, but it appears some power shifts are underway. Maybe more on this later.

Finally, keep an eye here. When people tell you who they are, believe them. When campaigns call for censoring speech, limiting speech, and corporate media goes all in for that and rights as privileges (and that the Constitution is a danger to our Democracy) pay attention. They are not misspeaking.

Well, not quite final. Remember to keep an eye on Nicaragua still. There remain some odd patterns in the data there. Can’t put a finger on it, but something is going on.

More soon.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Kursk

If you follow some of the, ah, more seasoned milbloggers and such, yes there has been a bit of snickering and odd jokes. And, to be honest, there is a part of me that suspects that somewhere Guderian is smirking if not smiling. I know I smiled a bit at hearing Marders had broken through in Kursk. If you are a student of military history, you pretty much could not help it. Not because of sympathy for the Germans in WWII, but for the rich, deep irony of the situation.

Two good pieces on Kursk are up here and here. There is a lot of fragmented info coming in via OSINT. To call the situation fluid is an understatement on par with referring to the Sun as warm. Ukraine has wisely not said a lot and apparently not shared a lot. For all that many suspect the U.S. knew and said nothing, I’m getting suspicious that we may have known and been told far less than that, and that Ukraine has learned a lesson about sharing plans and info with the U.S. Nothing concrete, just odd bits of data that don’t fit the pattern. Then again, most of our allies learn that lesson, sometimes painfully, as sharing with our politicians is pretty much a bad idea. Yes, there are a couple of exceptions, but note that they are exceptions.

Now, lots of people are noting the railway lines and logistics. True, and very important. As is how an already strapped Russia is going to deal with the loss of more vehicles, tires, and other things in short supply. Heck, even their ability to respond with artillery is limited by the frantic need for replacement liners for the tubes they already have. Even with U.S. and European companies selling them chips, equipment, and more, they can’t keep up with the losses (and yes, these companies are indeed helping the enemy).

Many of the Russian troops involved are conscripts, without a good leavening of combat-experienced leadership. From reports from Russian channels, this is not working out well. I also note, as do some others, that reports of riots and looting are not calling out if they are the result of civilians, troops, or both. Chaotic is a polite descriptor and efforts to flee the growing zone of occupation are creating gas deserts and other problems.

Now, on top of the logistics mentioned above, which are critical to supplying troops and civilians in previously seized and recently seized areas, take a look at the gas pipelines. Guess what country appears to be sitting in control of up to fifty percent of the natural gas going to Europe? That brings in hard cash and more to Russia? Guess how much more is possibly within drone or artillery range?

Now look at energy, which is needed for logistics, industry, and more (keep in mind, energy for civilians will be a low priority at this point for Russia). Look at what nuclear plant just got taken out of the game (and the games being played by Russia burning tires in the cooling tower of one plant they hold in Ukraine. And, yes, that was a game and a threat). The ability to use railways still under Russian control, power airfields and other military bases, and critical industry and support just got taken offline (effectively). Heck, if Ukraine destroys about ten or so key transformers it could be years before power is restored without Ukraine getting within a mile of the plant. To replace them faster would mean taking them from other areas and depriving those areas of power until new ones could be manufactured. Also, look at what countries would be involved in that manufacture.

Oh, and don’t forget power is sort of critical to data, and access to data is a key to modern warfare. Drones, smart bombs, and more depend on data and taking out power reduces or eliminates local data transmission. You need that local data rather badly for all phases of the process. If properly prepared and with the right gear, it’s not a problem. What do you want to bet about such in regards Russian troops and the Ukrainians?

I agree very much with those who are pointing out that this is in some ways a mirror-image of ’43 Kursk. The Russians are scrambling to get troops headed towards the breakthrough. Not only are they pulling border troops from all over, they are pulling reserves (and possibly more) from the previously stalemated battle zone. Now class, can anyone tell me what happened when Hitler pulled reserves and even troops from the assault back in 1943 in response to Sicily and other pressures? Bueller? Bueller?

So, I find myself wondering about several things. How many of the Russian troops in the Kursk region were ghost troops? That is, they exist only on paper so that officers up and down the line can pocket the pay of soldiers that don’t exist? How many of the troops in surrounding regions that are now being sent to deal with the breakthrough (and I do call it that deliberately) are also ghosts? It is a large and ongoing problem for the Russians (and even the Soviets before them).

Another good question is how many of the so-called second-line troops that people are claiming were moved into the stalemated battle lines were indeed second-line? What is going to happen once the Russian reserves and even line troops are pulled back to deal with Kursk?

Also, there are interesting reports/rumors of movements elsewhere. What if there is another incursion in a strategic area, one that has the potential to become a full breakthrough?

Interesting and interesting. Given the limitations on Russia’s conventional assets (and critical items within same), it could set the stage for two to three different options if things stay conventional.

Now, Russia may well threaten again to go non-conventional. So far, it’s all been threats and that is exactly what the apparent tire burning in the cooling tower in Russian-occupied Ukraine yesterday was: a threat. Do I still believe that Vladimir would torch Ukraine if he can’t have it? Yes. Do I think that if he gives the order it will be carried out? Insufficient data, but I’m starting to get the idea that at least some people within a certain red-brick fort may have figured out that it might not be a good idea to do so. For all there are those fanatical and ignorant of operational realities that would try to go unconventional or scorched-earth, there may be reason to believe that at least some may be getting a glimpse out of the bubbles. We can but hope.

Meantime, given that no one outside of Ukraine really seems to know what is going on and what is planned, I plan to sit back, relax as much as I can, and wait. This has been an incredibly smart operation so far, and I hope it continues to be so. Let’s see what happens.

UPDATE I: Given a discussion with Francis in the comments, thought I should link to my posts on nuclear war and preparedness. In those posts, there is discussion on reliability and more from myself and others who know of which they speak. Some of it is in the comments, and some are posts. Enjoy.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

D-Day

Blackfive is gone, so the posts I did then are as well. However, here is a bit I published on X today.

Had the honor of covering D-Day anniversary a few years ago, and really wish I could be there again today. Met some amazing men and women, who are rapidly leaving this world. Their stories are amazing, to be polite.

Walked with a man, who had landed on Utah that day, as he took his walker cross country at PDH because the path would have been three times as long. He looked around, shook his head, and said “…I thought we had it bad…”

He also shooed off his daughter so he could tell me some of the tales of things he had done in England before that day. 🙂

I met a Brit who had to play dead twice as he went inland. Like pretty much all I met, he was convinced others were the heroes and he was just a bloke who survived.

Or the lady who had been Resistance, who was captured, tortured, escaped, and lived. Her captors and torturers, well, not so much. That sweet grandmotherly type making you the sweets was a true badass back in the day, and I wouldn’t want to cross her today.

Loved watching an old soldier blush as a 30-something French young lady came up, hugged him, kissed him (well) and said “Thank you for my freedom.” He blushed, but he straightend up as he had in youth, and don’t think the smile left him the rest of that day.

So many songs to sing of that day, and they are leaving us fast. Remember them, honor them, this day and forevermore.

An Aside: Back when I was younger, on my first visit to Normandy, I spent some time at Omaha and decided to try going up from the beach to the top of one of the bluffs where such efforts were allowed (at least at the time). I have at various times then and since paced off the emplacements, studied the lines of fire, and am amazed that any survived.

Few people truly realize today that on the eastern part of Omaha, the German machine guns and other delights were literally only a few yards from the normal tide line — and those positions held until well into the afternoon. In fact, one German gunner who finally did pull out, hid his machine gun in the woods between there and the nearest village. Never did say where as he refused to give it to the French and the French would not allow it to be given to the Americans. Stubborn bunch.

The fighting was intense and often at incredibly short ranges. The bluffs may not have been cliffs like PDH, but they were not an easy climb. That Omaha was taken amazes me to this day, and it was done so through more blood and sacrifice than can be imagined. The troops coming in on all the beaches had to cover hundreds of yards in places before hitting the true shore, as they had waited on a historic low tide to help deal with all the obstacles.

Omaha, bloody Omaha. There are no words for thee.

Remember them this day. In the words of Laurence Binyon:

“They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old: 

Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.

At the going down of the sun and in the morning

We will remember them.”

Memorial Day 2024

With the car as it is, not going to be able to do my usual trip to Oaken Barrel to buy a beer for the guys. I may see if I can get down to the Church later to say a prayer, already done one here at home. I plan to cook some hot dogs, enjoy a good beer, and celebrate their lives even as I honor their sacrifice. Please join me in remembering:

ENS Albert Foster Powers, MIA 1945 Japan
LCPL Bill Stelpflug, Beirut
COL Rick Rescorla, NY 9/11
SPC Ryan Dallam, Iraq
PFC Damian Lopez, Iraq
SPC Marieo Guerrero, Iraq
CPT Anthony Palermo, Iraq
SPC David Behrle, Iraq
SPC Joseph Gilmore, Iraq
PFC Travis Haslip, Iraq
SGT Jean Medlin, Iraq
SSG Christopher Moore, Iraq
PVT Alexander Varela, Iraq
LCPL Jeremy W. Burris, Iraq
SSG Brian Cowdrey, Afghanistan
MAJ Andrew Olmstead, Iraq
CPT Carroll LeFon, CONUS

Thank you Lord that such men lived, and heeded the call to protect and defend. We are all the richer and the better for them and their brothers and sisters who lived the words “No greater love…” You are remembered. You are not forgotten. You are missed. God Bless.

Russia And Greece

If you missed the story of Russia coming close to getting both Zelensky and Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Prime Minister of Greece, I’m not surprised. Very little coverage (and downplayed) in corporate media. Little surprised at that given how many seem to want to escalate things, and killing the PM of Greece would surely do that.

Over on Twitter, I remarked that either Vladimir had become untethered from reality, or that the people under him did not have the sense God gave a gopher (embrace the healing power of ‘and’ I know). Someone immediately took me to task for failing to understand that Russia and Russian’s don’t think the way we do. No duh. Also, great way to tell me you’ve never read a word I’ve written about Russia since I’ve been jumping up and down on mores and how they don’t think like us since the early 80s.

However, I stand by what I said. Here’s why. For all that I’ve tried to point out that Vladimir and Russia made the decision to invade without consideration for or of world opinion, that it was strictly based on internal considerations, I also will admit that he did take a quick look at the world before committing. Fact is, Vladimir does not think much of Joe Biden or the Regency, nor much for most other Western leaders. His thought was that they would not really do anything other than talk. That once the offer of evac was rejected by Zelensky, they actually did support Ukraine and provide aid was a bit of a shock. Coupled with the results of rampant corruption in/of the military, things went badly. To be polite. Of course, using the same plan as ’68 down to many of the same units without updating wasn’t exactly optimal.

For all that Vladimir and most of the top people in Russia (including his opposition) are mostly focused on internal issues and perceptions, they also do have to have some consideration for world reaction. There are, after all, certain diplomatic niceties that have to be observed, including being fairly certain that if you off the leader of another nation, that nation and others are likely to be a tad bit upset.

Now, Vladimir doesn’t consider Greece to be a threat, as they are not a member of the nuclear club. Compared to the official numbers of Russian troops, ships, etc., the Greek military is not a threat. Problem for Vladimir is that those official numbers are crap, and they are only producing new weapons with massive help from Western companies who are cheerfully defying all blockades and sanctions to provide Russia with components and equipment. Previously posted my thoughts on that.

Fact is, Greece is in a geographic position to be a huge pain in Russia’s rump if things go hot between them. Russia depends heavily on a lot of “civilian” shipping that has to pass through the Aegean Sea to or from it’s way to the Black Sea. Vladimir it seems thinks that Greece will do nothing if their PM gets offed while in Ukraine. I think he’s very, very wrong.

If not a serious attempt to get Zelensky and Mitsotakis, it was very much a message. Vladimir has already made clear his thoughts about Greece supporting Ukraine, and on the visit. If he thought wacking the leader of another country like he would opposition at home was a good idea, he has become so focused on internal that he’s lost all contact with the outside world and how it operates. Hence, untethered.

Now, if this was “just” an attack on Odessa harbor by Russia’s military as claimed, that they launched it while the PM of another country was there visiting then they clearly don’t have the brains God gave a gopher.

Somehow I doubt that they did this without approval of higher, which pretty much means Vladimir. So, at best it was a message and at worst it was an attempt to eliminate two key opposition figures — which is how Vladimir sees it. Fact is, he doesn’t see Greece as a threat. Then again, he didn’t see Ukraine as a threat either. Have the feeling that this attack is going to have repercussions that somewhat (repeat, somewhat) echo the latter. Getting the strong impression that Mitsotakis was not cowed, but may even be pissed off. I don’t think that’s going to end up going well for Vladimir, who needs to start thinking past the end of his nose.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Fictional Scenario Follow-Up

There are a LOT of good comments on the original Fictional Scenario post. Thank you all! Rather than try to address them and some other points that have been sent individually, allow me to respond with this post.

Why do it as a fictional story? Well, the basic reason is that it will get a lot wider audience as a fiction story, and it is more likely to make money than cost money. It’s a tactic that actually been done for quite a while now, and often because if you try to submit certain ideas up the chain, or to a peer-reviewed publication, you know it’s not going anywhere but the circular file. Oftentimes with your career.

In fact, there are several popular science fiction stories that were created because the author knew that to present the ideas other than in fiction would be a career killer for a scientist. Couple of thriller shorts were along the same line, as higher had made it clear it didn’t want to hear about anything involving X (country, weapon, etc.). Understand China fits that X a good bit these days…

So, a fiction story has a better chance of being read, discussed, and benefiting the author. It might actually get read by the policy makers that need to read it. It also has a nice bit of plausible deniability for said author.

Now, for the containers. The K-pods were a good add to the discussion, and I wonder how much the Iranians paid attention to them in designing the CONEX pod they just used for the demonstration missile launch? Using such a standard pod simplifies a lot of logistics, and it is amazing the possibilities for them (Bruce was well on the mark there).

Depending on the missile used, you can potentially load up to four in a standard container, along with all the necessary command and control equipment. Keep in mind that anyone likely to do this could pull from Chinese, Russian, and Iranian missiles. Not to mention North Korean contributions, though I don’t see that as realistic at this time. I went with one weapon per container for a number of reasons, including not wanting to have the basic concept dismissed out of hand by certain bureaucratic types that are best avoided. KISS, in other words.

Also, no crew is needed in the pods. Such as system, as recently demonstrated by the Iranians, can easily be controlled from a laptop or console aboard the ship carrying the containers. It would not be too hard to even arrange for hydraulic jacks to lift one end up for an angled launch.

As for use of hypersonic, that was deliberate as certain buzzwords do hit the bingo card in DC. If you want people to pay attention (that need to), sadly you do seem to have to play buzzword bingo.

Reality is, the best choice for something like the first strike scenario described is a mixed load. Even non-hypersonic cruise missiles fired at that range are capable of hitting key targets in five or so minutes. Use faster (but accurate) weapons for longer distances, go for precision on the short range, and you get a devastating attack that takes out key targets before most even know they are under attack. There are even some inventive ways (including cross targeting from other ships involved) to take out some target areas with multiple warheads without worry of nuclear fratricide.

As for some of the target choices I made, while a number of bases are now reduced or officially offline, a number of our potential enemies have studied our history and know exactly how fast we could turn things around and make use of them. The lessons of WWII may be lost to much of our leadership, but I fear not to others. If you take out certain bases and/or areas, you eliminate our ability to build and sustain operations in opposition to other hostile activities. Activities that are the root cause of the fictional first strike.

Before I forget, it is worth noting that in the real world Russia has been taking a large number of high-precision cruise missiles out of strategic service, mating them with conventional warheads, and using them against Ukraine without replacements in the pipe. As Arte used to say, “Very Interesting!” and is something I am not sure is getting the attention it should. In turn, they are also buying a number of high-precision weapons from Iran for use for the same purpose. If I do decide to go back and finish this story, may have to make the load a mix of Chinese and Iranian missiles, with only some from Russia.

As for the countries involved, think about this a moment. Russia wants Russkiy Mir, and Ukraine is but the first step towards that. Iran has its own regional ambitions. China is not just focused on Taiwan, but has plans for the South China Sea and south even unto Australia. Remove the U.S. as a threat, and all three have the opening they need to act.

Ability is a different matter, as China is tottering more than most realize; Russia is not in good shape; and, Iran is one good match from seeing a new revolution. Just keep in mind that desperate people do desperate things, and the current leadership of all three fit that mold. So, don’t see this as likely but it is still something that needs to be considered.

More soon, I hope.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Fictional Scenario

Wednesday, I mentioned a bit of fiction that Iran may have sidelined. It got some good comments, so I thought I would share some of the background that led to the story on which I was working.

Short version is that most of our detection capability is focused offshore, and not from the shoreline inwards. Large shipping containers can make quite nice missile launchers that could be heavily shielded to prevent detection. China owns/controls several hundred large container ships, ships that could potentially have fifty or so such launchers in the top layer. Even if you dropped that to twenty or so, still plenty but 50 strikes me as a realistic number for this exercise.

If you go with hypersonic cruise missiles, horizontal or elevated launch is doable. There is also a way to do vertical launch, but for purposes of the scenario I elected to keep with the horizontal/elevated launch as you could avoid putting the missiles up high enough for rapid detection.

Now, if you have ships sailing into/towards Baltimore, Philadelphia, Savannah, San Diego, Long Beach, San Francisco Bay, Seattle, Houston, Hawai’i, and Anchorage, you’ve got excellent coverage. It might even be possible to get one into the Great Lakes, which would be icing on top. In pretty much every case, you are effectively launching from inside the country.

In the case of Baltimore, you would be talking five minutes or less to the targets in or near DC. That includes the White House and Pentagon, Langley, Andrews, etc. From there, bit longer gets you the bases stretching east, including Newport News, Quantico, and a few others. Now, expand that out and you are also taking out Beale and surrounding bases near SF, all of the bases around San Diego, Pearl Harbor, and all the facilities in Alaska. The ship at Savanah could not only take out Kings Bay, but Robbins, Mayport, Jacksonville, Canaveral, McDill, and others (like Barksdale). Even with hypersonics, you are talking longer to hit St. Louis, Omaha, the missile fields, etc.; but, still far short of ICBM time. The San Diego and Houston ships could also send some love towards the Mountain and Peterson, Ft. Hood, Dyess, Little Rock, etc. Great Lakes ship could not only send love towards the missile fields, but hit Wright-Pat, Grissom, Crane, and other inland targets. That’s not all the targets, but it gives you an idea.

In some respects, it is very similar to the targeting the AF chose in that little Rand video they did that had sub-launched missiles taking out our ability to hit the Soviets. The one who’s footage got used in The Day After. Largest difference is that you could have enough launchers to go for the secondary targets (state capitals, industry, etc.) even as you take out C&C and primary response.

May still try to finish it, but that’s the gist. Since there was interest, thought I would share.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Intelligence, OST, Thoughts

This is still going to be shorter than I would like, but things are afoot. I will say that the whole “Intelligence” issue that was supposed to be such a major security threat to the US seems much more a lack-of-intelligence/too-much-politics issue though it does raise some interesting possibilities.

Going back to my original post, FM made some very good comments I urge you to read. Nukes in space don’t do like they do on the ground. Take a look at what happened with Starfish Prime for an example. Not too long after, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union signed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which happened to ban such activity well before the Outer Space Treaty (OST). While Vladimir has pulled Russia out of most treaties of late, officially no one has set anything off in near-Earth orbit or deeper space since then.

I do seem to recall someone proposing to use nukes to clean up debris in Earth orbit, but that may have been during some informal discussions. Regardless, the idea and the originator were figuratively beaten about the head and shoulders. Just going to say look to Starfish Prime for reasons why.

Russia does have ASAT weapons and they do work. One was “tested” not too long ago and the ISS and other objects are still having to maneuver to avoid the debris created by the destruction of an old (Soviet?) Russian satellite. That is about all I can say on the topic of ASATs and SDI.

I will note that, in my personal opinion, a lot of marxist/communist fellow-travelers in the U.S. have long used the OST to hamstring both civilian and military space activities to the benefit of the Soviets and now Russians. According to them, any effort ground or space to develop SDI was a violation of treaty and some of them worked very hard to kill our efforts.

A good bit of focus of such efforts now is not just military, but commercial. Under the OST, most commercial is effectively banned if not formally banned. This, along with the ridiculous pious hand waving and screaming about how doing orbital extraction and processing would be an environmental disaster (yep, that’s a real thing), as would any human habitation on any celestial body be it the Moon or an asteroid. And, yes, there are real efforts underway to enact treaties and laws to ban such. Pay attention, as they really do want you and humanity as a whole trapped.

Personal opinion is that the OST has been twisted beyond pretzel status from the start, and is a treaty from which we should (must) formally withdraw. The non-binding Artemis Accords are somewhat better, but we need clear support for commerical, private property in space, and the use and exploitation of resources. Without such, any business will be taking a huge risk to pursue such.

There have been rumors for a while, that while a signatory to the OST, China was looking to violate it by claiming if not the entire lunar surface, good and important chunks of it. Including use of military force to defend such claim. Is such possible? Yes. Is it probable? Not at this time, not with the economic and other crises facing China and the CCP. That said, China is pushing hard to not only move into orbit, but have footholds elsewhere as well. It will be interesting to see where that goes.

Before I forget, again, the banning of WMD (nukes) from space not only was to protect Earth and the magnetic fields, but to keep things simple in regards attack detection. FM may have brought this up, but having nukes in orbit greatly complicates attack detection. Is that a nuke or a data/sample return mission (keep in mind that many spy satellites physically returned film and other media to the ground for quite a while)? When weapons can come from any direction, including straight up, it does indeed make it difficult for the defenders. See also yesterday’s post.

So, winding up. Could Russia use nukes in orbit to take out satellites, including via use of undeclared weapons put up as part of other payloads? Yep. Are they likely to? Different question, and I hope not. I will simply say I don’t think that would work out they way some seem to think it would. Should we leave the OST and any other binding or non-binding agreement that limits commercial activities? Yes. A thousand times yes.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

About That Intel Issue

That is so serious it is requiring multiple meetings, lots of SCIF briefings, and is apparently being leaked madly in the name of saving the Republic (cough, choke, wheeze). Oh, and is also being linked to crucial, crucial I say funding for Ukraine and is so important no money can be wasted on our borders… Sigh.

For now, color me skeptical, unimpressed, and needing jusssssst a touch more info (/end Harry Doyle/Bob Uecker voice) to be convinced. Right now, the bookmakers are putting good odds on it being the Russians, in the library with a candlestick, er, in space with nukes.

Okay, I’ll bite. One, nukes are about the only credible threat Russia has right now, and even it is a bit wobbly in my opinion. I still subscribe to my ‘tyranny of the 20 percent’ concept in which I think they (or us) will be lucky to get 20 percent of the weapons and/or weapons systems to work. Just look at how well Nikita’s, er, Vladimir’s demo launch worked during Biden’s visit to Ukraine.

For as much as I am NOT a fan of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and would like to see us either re-negotiate the majority in light of commercial operations or withdraw from them, there are some interesting and needed weapons provisions that I think are good things even though I’m also more than a little suspicious that China (1983 signatory I think) is well on its way to scrapping some key lunar and orbital points. For that matter, I’m pretty sure Russia has already violated it a time or two (but that’s true for pretty much every treaty they have signed).

Until there is more information, there’s not a lot that can be said — which is not going to stop the grifters and pundits from putting forth thousands of empty words. I’m going to wait and see what comes out other than leaks, then offer some analysis and thoughts. Until then, just consider my cynicism as a given.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.