Intelligence, OST, Thoughts

This is still going to be shorter than I would like, but things are afoot. I will say that the whole “Intelligence” issue that was supposed to be such a major security threat to the US seems much more a lack-of-intelligence/too-much-politics issue though it does raise some interesting possibilities.

Going back to my original post, FM made some very good comments I urge you to read. Nukes in space don’t do like they do on the ground. Take a look at what happened with Starfish Prime for an example. Not too long after, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union signed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which happened to ban such activity well before the Outer Space Treaty (OST). While Vladimir has pulled Russia out of most treaties of late, officially no one has set anything off in near-Earth orbit or deeper space since then.

I do seem to recall someone proposing to use nukes to clean up debris in Earth orbit, but that may have been during some informal discussions. Regardless, the idea and the originator were figuratively beaten about the head and shoulders. Just going to say look to Starfish Prime for reasons why.

Russia does have ASAT weapons and they do work. One was “tested” not too long ago and the ISS and other objects are still having to maneuver to avoid the debris created by the destruction of an old (Soviet?) Russian satellite. That is about all I can say on the topic of ASATs and SDI.

I will note that, in my personal opinion, a lot of marxist/communist fellow-travelers in the U.S. have long used the OST to hamstring both civilian and military space activities to the benefit of the Soviets and now Russians. According to them, any effort ground or space to develop SDI was a violation of treaty and some of them worked very hard to kill our efforts.

A good bit of focus of such efforts now is not just military, but commercial. Under the OST, most commercial is effectively banned if not formally banned. This, along with the ridiculous pious hand waving and screaming about how doing orbital extraction and processing would be an environmental disaster (yep, that’s a real thing), as would any human habitation on any celestial body be it the Moon or an asteroid. And, yes, there are real efforts underway to enact treaties and laws to ban such. Pay attention, as they really do want you and humanity as a whole trapped.

Personal opinion is that the OST has been twisted beyond pretzel status from the start, and is a treaty from which we should (must) formally withdraw. The non-binding Artemis Accords are somewhat better, but we need clear support for commerical, private property in space, and the use and exploitation of resources. Without such, any business will be taking a huge risk to pursue such.

There have been rumors for a while, that while a signatory to the OST, China was looking to violate it by claiming if not the entire lunar surface, good and important chunks of it. Including use of military force to defend such claim. Is such possible? Yes. Is it probable? Not at this time, not with the economic and other crises facing China and the CCP. That said, China is pushing hard to not only move into orbit, but have footholds elsewhere as well. It will be interesting to see where that goes.

Before I forget, again, the banning of WMD (nukes) from space not only was to protect Earth and the magnetic fields, but to keep things simple in regards attack detection. FM may have brought this up, but having nukes in orbit greatly complicates attack detection. Is that a nuke or a data/sample return mission (keep in mind that many spy satellites physically returned film and other media to the ground for quite a while)? When weapons can come from any direction, including straight up, it does indeed make it difficult for the defenders. See also yesterday’s post.

So, winding up. Could Russia use nukes in orbit to take out satellites, including via use of undeclared weapons put up as part of other payloads? Yep. Are they likely to? Different question, and I hope not. I will simply say I don’t think that would work out they way some seem to think it would. Should we leave the OST and any other binding or non-binding agreement that limits commercial activities? Yes. A thousand times yes.

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One thought on “Intelligence, OST, Thoughts”

  1. The Lord gave water a shot. Oh, impress it did, but by His grace, extinguish it did not. He said “Next time, fire.” I believe Him.

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