Hope to get back to regular posting here soon, but until then here are a few things of note.
Keep an eye on both Brazil and Venezuela. Brazil is getting a lot of splash over how they are going after Elon, but there is a good bit more going on not getting a lot of coverage. Most of this revolves around internal politics and Lula and his socialist buddies trying to cement permanent power. There is reason to believe our own government is in this up to its ears, from the “election” of Lula on to the current assault on free speech. That said, this could backfire big time on Lula and his merry gang of socialists, and it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
Venezuela could tip over into real revolution, but for now most of the outside players are all talk and no real walk. The only “action” so far is the U.S. catching Maduro’s plane (sort of his AF1) in another country (for maintenance?) and getting said country’s agreement to let the U.S. seize it and fly it to the U.S.
Also, keep on eye on France. While U.S. media is focused on Durov and the implied threat to Elon, don’t overlook what is going on in regards their last elections. Macaroon, who apparently wants to be president-for-life, has formally stated he is going to ignore the elections and will not be seating a Prime Minister from the winning party. Apparently the winners of the election are mean poopy heads who threaten our democracy and he’s just not going to go along with it. The winners of the election, however, are not happy about this and proceeding with legal options that could result in Macaroon being removed from office. Maybe. They may get this settled legally, though it will leave a very shaky, fragile, and brittle Fifth Republic. It could also end up much messier and with the start of the Sixth Republic.
In regards Durov and Telegram, there is reason to believe some elements of the U.S. government may be involved behind the scenes. A short and simplistic take: Durov would not play along with France and it’s intelligence agencies, or at least not to the level they wanted. Didn’t take a lot of suggestion or pushing for France to decide to step things up, especially as a precursor for their (France and EU) upcoming war with Elon and X. Besides, if Elon sees Durov go down, their take is it might make him more agreeable to their demands. I think they are flat flippin wrong on that, but it fits. This also ties into efforts by various elements of the U.S. to use France and the EU to censor content they don’t like on their behalf (legalities/plausible deniability). BTW, if you think Telegram is secure, and completely adversarial to Vladimir and Company, think again. If I find a link to a good analysis I saw a couple of weeks ago, will add it. User beware.
Now to Turkey. If you missed it, a anti-American “youth” group (didn’t look like kids to me) attacked and/or tried to kidnap one or more American troops on liberty in Turkey. Five Marines showed up and things did not go to plan. For all that the group is not a part of Edrogan’s party officially, you can bet this was not some spontaneous act. If it had been, the response of the local authorities would have been very different. However, I tend towards the “unofficially approved” camp as it ties in too neatly with Dedrogan’s plans. Note that he has now formally and openly applied to be a part of BRICS. Interesting timing, no?
It also puts NATO and the U.S. in a bit of a tight spot. Really hard to be a member of NATO and of BRICS, sort of like trying to be a member of NATO and the old Warsaw Pact at the same time. Add to it that both have also been counting on Turkey keeping warships out of the Black Sea and controlling traffic in a “neutral” manner (which benefits Ukraine), and that we have counted on our base(s) there for strategic positioning… Plus, there has long been a matter of some materials and such at Incirlik that make things even more touchy. The fact that we’ve had (this year alone) some opportunities to deal with those issues and failed to do so doesn’t surprise me. My thoughts on current military leadership, uniformed and civilian, isn’t high. Cough. Dealing with such now will be fraught.
Meantime, my thought to start is: cancel all port calls, resupply contracts, repair contracts, and stop all joint activities with the Turkish navy. Move port calls and contracts to Greece maybe. As for stopping joint training, well, things are tense, we need to be ready and elsewhere for now, maybe later, no hard feelings, etc., etc., etc. (/Yul Brenner Voice). Oh, and have the Wasp depart ASAP if that is not already underway. Again, given our current leadership I don’t expect much of anything to be done, and if it starts to go sideways expect them to handle things about as well as they did Afghanistan.
Quick note. I have removed Kamil Galeev from the Intel list. While his work on the history of Russia and the philosophical and other underpinnings of modern Russia and what is going on there now are brilliant, I just read some of his work in regards Israel and I can’t condone, support, or ignore. Condemn is in there though. I hadn’t been reading him in a while as I was focused elsewhere, and regret I didn’t catch it sooner.
Also, there’s something weird (weirder than usual) going on in Moscow. Hard to tell what is going on, but it appears some power shifts are underway. Maybe more on this later.
Finally, keep an eye here. When people tell you who they are, believe them. When campaigns call for censoring speech, limiting speech, and corporate media goes all in for that and rights as privileges (and that the Constitution is a danger to our Democracy) pay attention. They are not misspeaking.
Well, not quite final. Remember to keep an eye on Nicaragua still. There remain some odd patterns in the data there. Can’t put a finger on it, but something is going on.
More soon.
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