The Zelensky Implosion

Wow. Not quite the first word that popped into my head as things unfolded/I caught up with things. Good enough though. I’ve never seen anything like it, and I can’t think of a time the representative of a country seeking aid behaved so outrageously and unprofessionally not just in my lifetime, but in the entire history of the United States of America. However, to set the groundwork, here is the entire event which you really do need to watch in full:

If you go by carefully edited snippets in corporate/legacy media, one might think that this was the fault of Trump and/or Vance. If you watch the whole thing, you know nothing could be further from the truth. This was all on Zelensky who arrived like a spoiled toddler cosplaying a role.

What Zelensky displayed is far too common in Western Europe, where it is fashionable and acceptable (and far too common for my taste) to display such arrogant entitlement towards America and Americans. I will note that when you get out into the countryside, or more into Eastern Europe, this fades. Or, at least it did when I last traveled around a bit.

I personally think arrogant is polite and understated for his attitude. To still be dressing as the beset military (he’s not) leader three plus years on is a bit much, but it’s his act at this point. The fact that it was dated more than two years ago doesn’t seem to have penetrated to him or any of his team. That many people (even the people of the EU as opposed to their parasitic leadership) consider it dated and even insulting at this point is not going to register to this narcissist. In fact, I’ve wondered if it isn’t a calculated insult at this point rather than simply him being an actor unwilling to relinquish a beloved costume that was threadbare long ago.

To then, on top of this overwrought stage act, attack the President and Vice President of the United States IN THE OVAL OFFICE like a spoiled entitled brat being denied a treat, well wow seems pretty mild. Oh, and this behavior comes on top of the fact that Zelensky actually campaigned for Harris in Pennsylvania before this… For an actor and alleged comedian he sure doesn’t know how to read a room, much less the mood of the country that has kept his corrupt ass in power to their own detriment.

Also, I think calling Vice President Vance a bitch (in Ukrainian) was deliberately done to make the attack as personal as possible. I think it was a deliberate effort to poison the well, not just a bit of temper tantrum. One also needs to keep in mind that Rubio’s death stare was in part because everything had been set to sign, and Zelensky (again) blew up such plans and in so doing attempted to put a knife in Rubio’s back.

As best I can tell, this was a feat of self-immolation unprecedented in the annals of diplomacy. There was, however, one person who realized how badly Zelensky was screwing the pooch: his ambassador.

I could almost feel sorry for her. If you’ve never had to sit and watch a boss screw up in an important meeting, you are lucky. In this case, she had to sit and watch as Zelensky torched further aid, support, and peace. Almost, but given her own role in what I strongly suspect will turn out to be a worse boondoggle than many have assumed my sympathy is limited.

One thing that has surprised me a bit is the silence of the Russians. Remaining silent for now really is the smart thing to do, but when do politicians do the smart thing? That said, they are being silent in public but there does appear to be background chatter so to speak that may go something on the order “Holy Sheet! How flipping stupid can he be???” Paraphrasing a bit, but at least for now the Russians seem content to sit back and see just how deep a hole Zelensky can dig for himself and Ukraine. Probably won’t last as long as some could hope, as Zelensky seems to be intent on continuing the nuclear-level implosion, but one can’t blame them for keeping quiet and doing the Russian equivalent of popping popcorn to eat as they watch in fascination.

I have to admit, I would have paid real money to have been able to watch Vladimir’s face (and Lavarov’s and Shoigu’s) in real time as he watched this unfold. Fact is, Zelensky just handed them a massive break, and they know it. Anyone think they won’t run with it?

Right now, I don’t feel sorry for the American public. Depending on various factors and polls, it’s almost 80 percent that put Trump in office and are on record as being tired of continuing to send billions of dollars to Ukraine for no return and little thanks while Americans go without (WNC, etc.). Zelensky ripped the mask off himself and metaphorically went to the restroom on the living room carpet. They really did need to see that, and know the complete and utter contempt in which they are held by Zelensky and his government.

Right now, I do feel sorry for the Ukrainian people. I know and visit with Russian and Ukrainian immigrants, refugees, and such. None of them wanted this war, much less the forever war set in motion by Zelensky and the Biden Regency (along with EU leadership and others). They deserve far better than this anti-democratic clown.

When the initial invasion was repulsed (running Spring ’68 again down to the same units in some cases was not a good idea), I admit I celebrated. I had hoped that things could be calmed down, though I also noted that it was better to deal with things now rather than later. Took some flack for not being a supporter of total war, but I was (am, I hope) realistic and know how easy it is to have things go hot in ways not good for Ukraine, Russia, or the world. With the “leadership” of the Biden Regency involved on the military side of things, I was not optimistic for good, much less reasoned, policy. Think I was very right on that. I think far more could have been done to restore taken territory and put Ukraine in a better position, but that was never the goal of the Biden Regency.

I don’t think Zelensky truly wants peace for several reasons. Right now billions of dollars and supplies continue to flood into a country known for its corruption. There is reason to believe that some of those supplies, not just weapons, are going places other than to the troops. It’s lucrative for those in power to keep that up while claiming the war makes it impossible to truly audit and control things. If the war ends, there will be elections that he is quite likely to lose. Given the tactics used on his opponents (not to mention non-opponents like the Orthodox Church) it might not be healthy for him to be out of power. Rumors of homes and estates bought elsewhere might not be rumors one could think.

While I am sure the diplo-macs can create a way, but I really don’t see a way back for Zelensky. He showed his true self to the American public, and they are not going to forget this or be swayed into it being the fault of anyone but him. Yes, the 20 percent may go that route, but I don’t see that happening in the 80. In fact, I think a lot of people are missing the mood of the 80 percent, dangerously so even.

I think the best thing we can do right now is do as asked: Let Europe take this on without our backup. I think it is time to stop all aid to such things as pensions, government operations, rebuilding, etc. within Ukraine. Frankly, I think we should pause all military support until such time as a full forensic audit can be completed on the funds and goods sent to Ukraine. Follow any corruption wherever it leads, be that there, the EU, or here and prosecute those involved to the fullest extent of the law. If weapons and other items have gone places they shouldn’t, that needs to be dealt with too.

Personally, I want a good peace for this conflict. That means something that respects and validates Ukrainian territorial sovereignty, puts a cropper on Russkiy Mir, and avoids kicking cans down the road as much as possible. Not going to be easy or fun, but I think it is doable.

But, I don’t think it is doable with Zelensky or his clique in power.

What happens now? Who knows. Frankly, if anyone can work out a deal on this it is President Donald Trump. I hope he does. I also hope that he gives the EU leadership and others what they want: freedom to protect themselves and those they desire to protect, but without our funds or military in support. It is past time to pull the plug on NATO. There are some other areas where we need to fundamentally re-evaluate our participation and support. We also, as discussed here previously, need to look at new opportunities.

UPDATE I: Over on X, Mollie Hemingway has an excellent and growing thread (look on her timeline at need for info on Chris Murphy and others) that this may have been a set-up on more than Zelensky’s part. Interesting how certain people here seemed to be involved and so many global elites had immediate and similar responses to the event. Like almost cut-and-paste. Very interesting and it is some good food for thought to add to the above. Also, if even partly true, more reason to let Europe fend for itself.

UPDATE II: Go read this interesting and good food for thought at “L’ Ombre de l’Olivier. He makes some interesting points. Also, corrected one typo above.

UPDATE III: L’Ombre de l’Olivier has a follow-up post that is well worth reading. I do have some quibbles with parts. I probably should do a full post but for now, some quick thoughts on things I’m not sure are missing or were raised by implication. First, I would argue for four groups, and will simply note that there are those of us who do realize that there are things we need from (and in) Europe. We just want to be more selective about it and yes, we are fed up with funding freeloaders. And that’s exactly what most (repeat most) of NATO are. Second, if you go back and read my archives, I pointed out early on that we had a moral obligation to Ukraine though not a legal one as the Memorandums were never ratified. That said we are NOT obligated to take steps that will result in either a conventional or nuclear world war. Quick aside, I’m in full agreement with Francis that only 10-20 percent of our nuclear systems will work, though I’m far more worried that those of newer rogue states will work. Third, you can again find in the archives that I don’t think Vladimir can be trusted to honor any treaty. He’s all in on Russkiy Mir and is not going to give up. Fourth, almost everyone seems to be missing that the United States is in a fight for it’s own life, and on two fronts. Front A: financially we are broke and without major reforms (DOGE is but a start) we will default and soon. Front B: right now is probably our one and only chance to deal with the massive unelected bureaucracy and save the Great Experiment that is our Republic. We do it now, or the Republic is done. Fifth, whatever Zelensky was when he started, I think he has been compromised. Sixth, one reason the EU is all in on endless war in Ukraine is that it’s so-called elites make bank off the corruption, human trafficking, and more that is going on; see this as a way to bleed Russia and are willing to fight to the last Ukrainian to do so; see it as a way to make money as right now a number of European (and American) companies are making money off military sales to Russia (which also is a means of control they think); and, to try to leverage Uncle Sugar to keep being Uncle Sugar on their terms. Some of this is being discussed in the comments, but again some of this could take several posts to fully cover.

UPDATE IV: Francis has updated his post and makes some good points. This being the first week of Lent, not sure when I will get to do another post but hopefully soon. Also, don’t miss Sarah A. Hoyt’s post and the body language analysis I think is spot on. To follow-up quickly on the EU leadership issues, I would add to what I wrote in UPDATE III that the EU leadership hopes to also bleed Russia dry and to encourage it to break up. As discussed before (see the archives), the fracture lines are there but I think they may be misreading things rather badly. First, they are doing this while dependent on Russian energy to keep their people alive and industry running. Calling that stupid is mild I think. Second, the collapse of the Soviet Union was ahistorical, as in a rarity. It was an amazingly soft landing for the world, and that is the exception not the rule. There are no guarantees a breakup of Russia will be as smooth, and there are a lot of reasons to think it will not be. Not the least of which (also previously discussed) is China. Then again, the progressives/WEF types seem to have inherited in full measure the Gotterdammerung sensibilities of the Nazi elite: if they lose power it is the end of their world, therefore it is the end of the world, and better to see it all burn. Yeah, really do need to do some more posts on some of the second, third, and even fourth order effects here.

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Tripwire? Who Needs It

A quick follow-up on The Suicide Of NATO and Post NATO posts. There are people asking who provides the nuclear tripwire and deterrent for a NATO without the U.S. or any new agreement we enter into.

Radical Idea: It should not be us. For a truly European NATO, I will simply note that both England and France are nuclear powers. Let them provide tripwire and deterrence. That does also work to keep things regional, including costs. As far as any new post-NATO grouping with the U.S., note that I specifically call for it to be economic based, not military based.

Now, if you really want to make heads explode, I would further invite you to consider that the nuclear club is expanding already, mostly along the axis of Evil. Maybe we should consider a controlled expansion on our side the line, and to that end I would nominate Poland.

They have the scientific talent, the military skill, and long memories. Memories that should make certain countries on both sides of them behave cautiously and carefully. The fact that it would cause great consternation both West and East just makes it all the better.

Also, Poland would be a good place to gather as many current European nukes when England, Germany, and other EU countries fall to the Caliphate. I would like to think that responsible parties in England, France, or anywhere else that has nuclear weapons or materials would try to keep them from falling to Islamic control when the fall comes. Then again, I look at the current crop of English politicians and know it’s not going to be them and the best we can hope for in that case is some professionalism being left in the military. Not much hope there either, but…

In case I wasn’t blunt enough the other day, I do think most of the EU has a good chance of falling to the Caliphate within a single generation, and I include the UK in that. The only real hope for England is an uprising, and I swear I think that’s been bred out of the English people. For France, it is again with the public, and I wish Tom Kratman was right on something he said a few years back about the population stepping up, getting very pragmatic, and dealing with things as the French Government is not going to do it. Especially with Macaroon tanking elections, closing down television networks, and other efforts to keep power.

The only real bright spot I see right now is Italy, and I hope the current parties in power can remain there and will also continue to be willing to buck the EU. Brexit was a warning to the EU, but with Starmer licking, er, boots and defacto rejoining the EU, don’t think the message stuck. Push comes to shove, I think Italy has a good shot at survival.

Eastern Europe has good reason to consider going off on it’s own as previously discussed. All the more reason for the U.S. to build a relationship with them on the lines I proposed. When the fall comes, they may well be what helps contain things, though it is more than ironic that they may become the first line of defense for Russia and others. It may also be key to saving Europe from the Caliphate, as the Winged Hussars may yet have to ride again.

Final thought on our nuclear deterrent capabilities: they suck. We need to do serious work on the triad, as our missiles needed replacing decades ago; the air and related component has not been really kept up all that well (not to mention that the BUFF is likely to still be flying in a hundred years, really would not be surprised to see one given space engines so it can fly with the USS Enterprise to defend the Federation); and, right now we have naval leadership that I don’t think can get a rowboat across the lake in Central Park. We need serious upgrades, and until we get them we have no business trying to be a tripwire or a deterrent.

Just some quick thoughts to share.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Post NATO

I’m unsurprised to already see a comment on the Suicide of NATO post pointing out logistics problems with a new NATO with the Baltic States. My inner smartass is tempted to say “No Bleep!” while my inner book promoter notes that someone apparently hasn’t read Cauldron as those issues are discussed there at length. Both responses, however, need to be set aside so as to focus on the fact that “a new NATO” is the last thing we should be doing. To repeat failure is arrant stupidity.

First up, why should we set ourselves up as a tripwire again? What benefit for the U.S. is there in so doing? Against whom are we playing tripwire, Russia or the EU?

The fact is, the former Eastern Bloc are the countries most enthusiastically embracing and encouraging freedom and the concepts of Western Civilization. Are they doing so exactly on our model? No, thank goodness. Each is taking a different approach, and in that regard they are acting much like the founding Fathers envisioned the states in the United States. Each was free to try different things, and the things that worked could then be adopted by other states while avoiding the things that failed.

Remember, we are The Great Experiment and if you don’t know what that is, sue your schools and do some research. The whole concept of regular individuals being bright enough to make choices on their own was only a thing of intellectual thought until the Founding Fathers needed to put a government of, by, and for the people into place. Many, including progressives here and overseas (which includes pretty much all EU leadership) still feel that such is wrong and that you are not capable of such. Understand not only your civics, but the history of your civics…

Now, back to topic. Do we have a legitimate and/or vested interest in free and independent states that promote freedom and the values of Western Civilization? I posit that we do, one that is worth investing in those states. Why that is, is a post for another day. For now, simply accept that my thesis is based on this being true.

The question is, who now threatens those states and what are the threats?

NATO was predicated on a military threat from the USSR. While the USSR has fallen, Russia does have even larger territorial ambitions as outlined in Russkiy Mir (Russia World). If you like, look up previous discussions here on that topic (search function, along with the tip jar are on the upper right) but you do want to read up on it as it is the guiding document for Vladimir and current Russian leadership. And, yes, Ukraine was the first step in it.

The Russian military, conventional or nuclear, is clearly not the threat it was many years ago (discussions on that being wrong are for another day). Vaunted stockpiles are useless and have to be scrapped, and it is only through Western industry violating sanctions and such that it is even starting to hang on. Yes, I do think those sales are an even larger part of things that what is being done by Iran and North Korea.

Individually, some of the larger countries such as Poland or Hungary can defend themselves if they continue to go as they are. Working together, the countries in question should easily be able to do so. Without the U.S. having to rush troops in via a modern Reforger. Resupply of logistics may be a different issue, but it is not an urgent one at this time.

The larger threat right now comes on other fronts, including diplomatic and logistical. Yes, I know I just said that the resupply of logistics wasn’t urgent, and it’s not. What is important is energy, and Russia has been using this as a weapon, effectively, for a while now. One need only look at Germany for a prime example. Germany has committed energy suicide, and while it is reversible, it’s current leadership is refusing to admit there is a problem, much less take positive steps to fix it. Much of what they seem to want to do involves energy from Russia. From whom we are supposed to be defending them…

The energy issue is one for a post of it’s own one day, but almost every major EU country except for France is committing energy suicide. While not back in the EU, the UK is doing the same just without buying (yet) from Russia. France has bucked the trend (and the EU to some extent) by going heavy into new nuclear, which actually is quite smart. Not something I normally associate with the government(s) of France, but it truly is the smart thing to do, and we need to go with some of the advanced SMRs and newer systems here.

It’s time, however, for the elephant in the room. For all that I don’t see the EU as lasting, it is here and it plans to stay here by hook, crook, or force against its members. Most of the former Eastern Bloc have joined the EU and the EU has waged political war against some of them who have not toed the Brussels line. To the point of removing at least one government. I see no reason they would not engage in a military war to ensure their continued rule. Again, read Cauldron because the current EU seems to be following the playbook of the bad guys in it.

Which, skipping a few steps I think you can posit on your own, leads me to the idea that any “new NATO” should be nothing such; rather, it should focus on trade, energy, diplomacy, and ensuring that the countries involved have forces on their own capable of meeting threats from any direction. Trade boosts their economies as well as our own, and can help us reboot certain manufacturing sectors. Energy ensures their independence, and with research and other sharing agreements could provide an opportunity to test and advance nuclear and other advanced generation means. Heck, it could even provide a chance to upgrade and modernize some older generation systems (hydro for one example). Good diplomacy builds better relationships even as it discourages the stupid from doing stupid things.

Now, I do think that it is to our advantage to work with them to help them build the military systems they want and need. I can think of a few scenarios where having the ability to work with and integrate forces might be a good idea. The way to do that is through trade. We sell them systems, we sell them training, and we sell them supplies. We might give them a discount even. More than that, for those interested, we offer training opportunities here for their troops, and it might not hurt if some of ours trained there. We build them up as close as possible to our old standards (which hopefully Pete and company will get us back to), and we make sure we can work together at need. What they need is their own military, not ours, being known as capable of defending them against all comers.

Whatever we call this new thing, it must not be just a rehash of NATO. It needs to focus on economic well being, promotion of the values of Western Civilization, with an internal professional and potent military. It must not become yet another suck of manpower, material, and money. In that way you avoid the issues raised in Cauldron about logistics and resupply. Unless Russia or the EU want to start a war by sinking ships, free trade is the best way to work around things.

*****

Some quick related thoughts not germane to the post. We are going to have to look at how to work around some things no matter what happens here soon.

The UK became a staging ground in WWII because it was off the coast of Europe as much as it was an ally (sorta, some discussion there too). We needed bases for aircraft, ships, and troops, and England provided them. With the end of WWII and the start of the Cold War, those bases remained needed to counter the USSR. Scapa Flow and other bases up north provided sanctuary for ships and subs, along with the ability to sortie in several directions. Air bases provided the ability to reach Europe, Africa, and Scandinavia with ease.

Over the last couple of decades, however, the UK has gutted its military on a scale that made Obama green with envy. If you want to have some fun, look at tanks in say 1985 versus now. You can do that with planes and more if you like. Fact is, the UK has indeed limited our use of air fields and even or own assets when we were needing to respond to various incidents over the years. The state of the ports unfortunately mirrors our own.

One way or another we are going to need to look at how much we need/want forward basing, and what options there might be. We sure don’t need another turkey like Turkey and I fear that is where we are headed with England.

Which ties into some of the discussions in Cauldron about the problems of supporting the former Eastern Bloc/Baltic states in time of war. Especially as unlike the novel, I don’t see Denmark going neutral and could see England going actively hostile. Given that I’m not sure our current naval leadership could successfully get a rowboat across the lake in Central Park, I sure don’t trust it to run supplies into the Baltic in a time of war. Resupply by air just isn’t feasible in terms of amounts, much less the routings that would have to be used to avoid EU airspace. For all that I think there might be a few surprises in terms of EU members not taking part in such, it just reinforces my contention that we should avoid doing a “new NATO” at all costs. I think what I’ve outlined above is far better.

The Suicide Of NATO

UPDATES BELOW

One thing that jumped out at me this last week was the realization that I was watching the suicide of both NATO and whatever chance was left at restoring the special relationship with England. Both are entirely self-inflicted and frankly Vance’s speech (and I’ve heard was also in some other messages not public) was a warning (or appeal) to not jump.

Unsurprisingly, led by Germany, they are jumping. The only surprising thing is that under two-tier Keir (have a slightly different pronunciation/name I try not to use in public) England may well beat France and Macaroon in joining them.

The roots of current events go back into the 80s, when NATO became more a status assignment than a true check on the Soviet Union and communism. In fact, look at the politics in Europe in the 80s and you can see the socialists/WEF globalists forming up and moving out. Green was deadly and a lot of things went on that still don’t have public answers (SDI deaths among others). Fact is, however, that it was the time that the progressives/globalists began to move inside and start gutting NATO so they could wear it as a skinwalker.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, that has only progressed. Frankly, NATO ceased to be relevant per it’s founding, and there was fairly open discussion on repurposing it so as to maintain the form and build upon it for other purposes. One of the largest being to have the U.S. fund the welfare states for as much of Europe as possible. Discussion of ending NATO was washed away in a tide of open and black-budget funding. I personally think that the NGO model was first tried outside of USAID with NATO. If Elon and DOGE want a challenge, look into that history.

In his first term, Trump tried to get Germany and others to live up to their oaths and treaties in regards defense funding and funding to NATO. The absolute contempt with which he (and Richard Grenell) were showered — in public even — was intended by those involved to be a humiliation. Don’t think that went the way they intended. Even so, Germany just doubled down on that with recent statements by their minister of defense and vice chancellor.

That doesn’t even touch the EU and how that has impacted NATO (and even the US as our internal enemies tried to make use of the EU to censor Americans). Frankly, I’m more and more reminded on many levels of Larry Bond’s book Cauldron. It is worth noting that most of the Eastern European countries, having been forced minions of the Soviet Union, are not happy with things and have been stepping up to their commitments to NATO, and even going several steps beyond. More on that in a minute.

With the formation of the EU, NATO should have ended (as such) and the EU taken responsibility for it’s own defense. However, as noted above, keeping both allowed all sorts of interesting money (and weapons, etc.) transfers as well as ways for the different countries to use each other to control unruly citizens and dissidents. This was especially true for the progressives in the U.S. who used not only EU countries but the UK to spy, censor, interfere with elections, fabricate evidence for political purposes, and much much more. And if you don’t think EU leadership such as Ursula, Thierry, and others were not in on this up to their eyebrows…

Now think about this: for all that the so-called leaders in the EU can’t read the room (and they truly can’t), they could see that all the high-handed actions and efforts that were having a negative impact on average citizens might not go over well. Hence, Angela’s great immigration folly. Bring in a new population, used to less, to balance and frankly to keep the original population in line. Problem is, I don’t think they truly realized that the massive influx of Islamics could not be controlled like normal. That they, in fact, might have ideas and plans of their own, such as finishing what they started a thousand plus years ago and avenging the Gates of Vienna.

Fact is, most globalists/progressives are not that bright. They see things through an amazing array of filters and blinders. When you add to it that they are also seeing more than a hundred years of their own power going down the tubes, they are not handling it well. Since the time of the despicable Woodrow Wilson, they have been effectively in charge and unreasonably sure of their own brilliance and eternal power. They have long used catspaws/loyal troops to provide violence when needed (BLM riots were hardly the first, go back to the Wobblies and others in the early 1900s). They do indeed see violence as a tool with a rheostatic control. Problem is, not even their own tools see it that way, and a lot of other groups only see a toggle.

Which, sadly, brings us to England. We did have a special relationship with England. It took a while after the War of Jenkin’s Ear, but it did develop and we did some good and interesting things together. Quite frankly, we saved their bacon twice in the last century and had their back as their empire melted away like vapor in the sun.

Despite some issues, we managed to hold onto it even into the 1960s and 70s. Some turbulence started cropping up then, but it truly hit the rocks with the election of Obama, who hates England, Brits, and everything to do with them. That was made clear during his first two terms, and even more so during his unofficial third term under the Biden Regency.

Fact is, I think the last vestige of the England with which we had the special relationship died with Queen Elizabeth. With her died the England of Churchill and WWII, and all that came before it. That there were and are still hopes for such can be seen in the return of the Churchill bust to the White House. But, there are two things against it.

One is Charles and The Firm. My thoughts on Charles I will leave aside for now, but even if William is much more than his father it’s not likely to matter for two reasons. The first is two-tier Keir, who would be a perfect fit in 1984 as a leader, and the demographics of England’s own invasion of Muslim immigrants.

Keir wants absolute power and an effective police state for all the original population of England, with some control over the immigrants. He and his cohorts are working hard to undo Brexit and return England to the EU, though I suspect he wants to return as an equal (a thing to which the EU will never fully agree).

So, he courts power within the progressive/WEF crowd by his actions and shows his loyalty to same by threatening America with this and that, including ending intelligence and military cooperation.

The truly sad thing is that I don’t think it matters in regards them, Germany, or France. Demographics is destiny. As noted before, that huge influx of Muslim immigrants allowed in legally and illegally has already set up multiple Sharia courts across England, which the politicians have stupidly allowed. The immigrants already wield outsized power in England, Germany, France (and elsewhere). My personal opinion is that unless something very unexpected and kinetic occurs, all three countries are not three, but one generation from becoming Islamic states. It’s purely a numbers game, and the immigrants have the numbers along with the effective approval/support of those currently in power.

Yes, I do think that was part of the plan here. Topic for another day, but it was and is much the same. Thankfully, we had a very different outcome last November and Trump came in prepared and loaded for bear. We have a chance, an opportunity, to save ourselves and our Republic. Under current leadership, Europe is fracked. And it is likely to stay fracked, or fall into violence.

As Vice President Vance correctly noted, the EU and it’s member states have started ignoring or overturning elections they don’t like. It’s not just Romania, but France as well. Macaroon refused to acknowledge a rather clear vote by the people and has refused to dissolve the government or to put in place the government (and parties) for which the people rather significantly voted. Germany is currently trying to ban the ADF in Germany and even banned them from the Munich conference. Want to make a bet that if the ADF wins in the upcoming elections as expected, Germany and the EU will refuse to acknowledge the win?

Final thought in this part, particularly on the part of the so-called leaders not being able to read the room. I don’t think they truly understand where their own people are right now. I don’t think they get that they are legitimately and rightfully angry. I know for a fact they don’t have a clue about the American public and the flat-out anger that is close to breaking out. They think it is business as usual, that their buddies and co-conspirators will get back on top again and all go on as before. I don’t see that happening, and I do see efforts to force such resulting in violence and turmoil the world has never seen. I think they might even get a taste of that out of their own people if they don’t wake up and wise up. And I fear they are too stupid and too desperate to cling to the only power structure they know to do so.

Now, let’s face that NATO is not working and most members are not honoring their commitments. It is also not needed for it’s original purpose and the United States has no real vested interest in most of the issues that now face Europe. Fact is, in conventional terms Russia is no threat to a prepared Europe or to the U.S. In nuclear terms, Russia is no threat to a prepared Europe or the U.S. I stand by my previous remarks in regards the twenty percent option. I will skip China for now, but will note that I think it would not survive war with the U.S. or other power block, for all that I suspect most of the U.S. Pacific Fleet and far too many other forces will be either on the bottom of the Pacific or dead in the process.

Frankly, this old Cold Warrior finds himself in a position he never expected to be. I have to agree with Mike Lee and I think we need to be out of NATO. If they can’t and wont honor their commitments, why should we continue to fund them. To protect them and to pledge the blood of our young for their authoritarian and anti-democratic governments? For governments that hate and despise us even as they demand more from us?

I do think it would be wise and prudent to look at some framework with the Baltic states and other members (Poland, Hungary, etc.) who are stepping up. There are a lot of issues there, a number of which Larry Bond covered in his novel Cauldron. There are also some issues that tie into work by Cdr. Salamander, John Konrad, and others in regards the dismal state of our fleet, the beyond abysmal state of our logistics, support/repair, and merchant fleets, and related issues (we need seaplanes in the Pacific if for no other reason than that we can lose ships and planes, but can’t afford to lose pilots and crews because we have no means to currently rescue them). That’s a post for another day.

Right now, if a new framework with the new Europe can be worked out, I would say pull everything we can out of Germany and elsewhere, and move them there. England has been a good staging ground, but future use under current leadership is doubtful (and I have not forgotten past times they refused to let us use forces/assets in England to defend our interests, something that has happened more than once since the 70s). Keir wants to play chicken with those assets and long-standing cooperation? Let’s take that card out of his hands right now. Again, they have not lived up to their commitments, so what do we owe them?

The American public is sick and tired of supporting authoritarian deadbeats who do not honor their word. The American public is sick and tired of spending the blood of our sons and daughters for unappreciative snots, and that is a fair assessment of the current leaders of the EU, Germany, France, and England. The American public is sick and tired of paying for your welfare state instead of taking care of our own. The American public is sick and tired of your whining bullshit.

Time to leave. Let the chips fall where they may.

*****

UPDATE: The post on what I think should replace NATO is up here for those interested.

UPDATE II: I highly recommend this post NATO RIP at L’Ombre de l’Olivier

Droning

Holding fire on speculation, but will simply note a few quick things:

If memory serves, the Chinese have practiced launching drone swarms from container ships (“civilian”) before. If memory serves, there was a Chinese man arrested in California not all that long ago for flying a drone into/over restricted airspace. If memory serves, the Chinese were buying farmland and other real estate near major (inland) military bases for years (with some of us jumping up and down and trying to get it stopped). Was some of that near Wright-Pat?

Now, as to the White House playbook. Isn’t the response to the drones eerily similar to the spy balloon fiasco?

Oh, and don’t forget all those healthy and in-shape military-aged Chinese males that have come across the southern border in the last couple of years.

The more I watch, the more convinced I am that multiple parties are going to do something stupid ahead of Jan 20. I really hope not, but am not going to bet on it.

Just some quick musings…

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

IRBM Redux

So Vladimir decided to raise the stakes in his ongoing series of threats to go nuclear. What he did was smart on several levels, and incredibly stupid on several more. Let’s take a minute to look at this with a calm if jaundiced eye.

Almost immediately upon starting his “three-day-war” against Ukraine, Vladimir has been threatening to go nuclear. It was a way to try to keep the West (primarily but not exclusively NATO) out of the fray and to discourage any and all help for Ukraine. Frankly, I can’t blame him.

Let’s face it: that is the only threat he has. Even in the massive information bubble in which he and other top leaders (and not just in Russia — look to the last election for great examples here) reside. He is in a silo in a bubble in which bad news, much less reality, rarely enters. For all that, I suspect that he had to know just how much of a paper bear the Russian military had become.

Oh yes, they have all these massive stockpiles of tanks, guns, artillery, etc. Pretty much all of which have rusted to the point it is cheaper and much easier to make new ones than to try to repair/refurbish the rusted hulks. Never mind that many of those items allegedly stockpiled either never existed (corruption) or had been stolen/sold (desperation/survival, plus corruption). If you haven’t been reading my stuff before, I and others have pointed out that many items, including very sensitive systems, had been sold on the black so that troops and workers could eat and survive within an extremely corrupt system.

I’ve also written before about how Vladimir is much like a necromancer in fiction: once the snake has been tossed on the table, you can’t just let things slide. To give in to nuclear blackmail is to ensure worse for the future and our children. It has to be dealt with, firmly, or others will take up the staff as well. Our problem has been the feckless and incompetent Biden Regency, which is Obama III. Keep in mind it was Obama who abrogated our responsibilities to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum when Vladimir decided to take Crimea.

Yet, Vladimir continues to raise nuclear as an option because he has nothing else. He can’t mobilize the manpower numbers needed, and of those who have been brought in (forced in even) are untrained, ill-led, and ill-equiped. There is no realistic way for him to mobilize even a fraction of the numbers needed for full combat, and if he tries the economy crashes hard given how many critical positions are already unfilled. Train drivers (-2,500) are just the tip of that iceberg. Never mind that well over a million of the ‘best and brightest’ of the younger generations decided to go expat over the invasion. Brain drain is a real and dangerous thing. The only way he is getting the arms he needs to any degree is by purchasing (one way or another) from other countries and manning by using foreign troops (hello Kim!).

Now, here’s the problem for him: are the strategic forces in any better shape than any other part of the Russian military (or space program for that matter)? Lots of little things have popped up over the last couple of years. Also, a few larger ones. When Biden visited Ukraine a while back, it appears that Vladimir tried to stage a test launch of a Sarmat/Satan II ICBM as a show of force and threat. That didn’t happen, and it appears it may have been rather spectacular at the launch site. Also, keep in mind the corruption that still plagues the regular military was also part-and-parcel of the strategic forces as well. Of all the parts, systems, weapons delivered, how many were real? Also keep in mind that Sarmat was supposed to have replaced all other ICBMS as much as ten years ago. Hasn’t happened. There are reasons for that.

Which brings us to the recent IRBM launch. Here’s a decent article on the system itself. For those looking at pedigree, Oreshnik derives from Rubezh, which derives from Yars, which in turn dervies from the Topol if I remember correctly (Topol minus a stage I think). Keep in mind, that the USSR was always good at ‘one-offs’ in terms of development. They could, would, and did come up with ‘showcase’ projects that were (esp. given tech limitations) quite impressive in their own way. Where they flat out suck has always been in production. I suspect that is a large part of what is happening with the Sarmat. It’s happened on other military systems before, and it’s worth remembering that on the civilian side so-called ‘identical’ Soyuz and other space vehicles could not exchange parts because each was essentially a custom build.

The only thing they ever seem to have been able to mass produce reliably that had any complexity (cough) was the AK. They even had to sub out mines and more to the satellite countries. Heck, some of the best AKs came from the satellite countries to be honest.

For me, I am very interested in the Re-entry Vehicles and the reported sub-munitions. Especially given the reported Mach 11 speeds on terminal.

Regular RVs tend not to be very accurate by modern standards, having at best about a fify-foot CEP. To be honest, Soviet CEP sucked and at one point was up to ten miles. They improved that, but to make up for ongoing issues used much larger warheads. Here, the use of sub-munitions seems to imply either an intended conventional use or that multiple weapons may be needed to make up for other shortcomings. Could be off on that, but it was the first thing that popped into my mind. The other thing that did pop up after that was deploying multiple weapons to take out an extended column (or fortifications) in a gap or line.

It is also rather unprecedented to give the world (and your enemies) this good a look at the operations of a system allegedly in development. Not to mention the chance to recover pieces/fragments/chunks for analysis. Yep, some have already been found and I guarantee the tech intel types are salivating at the chance to examine them.

And speaking of stupid-on-steroids, threatening a U.S. base on another country’s soil isn’t bright. That’s not something that can be ignored (at least by competent people, which seem to be in short supply under the Biden Regency). It sets the stage for guaranteed escalation of force if anything does fly towards, or worse yet hit, that base. Given the apparent parlous state of Russia’s strategic and conventional forces (and our own, sadly), that’s really not a place you want to go. Especially given that a new administration is inbound.

Which brings up some very non-technical considerations. Trump was NOT Vladimir’s choice by any means. Vladimir was quite open and serious about supporting the H/W ticket because he saw them both as easily manipulated idiots in the service of Obama around whom he has run rings for years. Same for the Hildebeast and several others. Also, wonder what his good buddy (with the knife at his back) Xi may have said about the governor…

If Vladimir wants to cement what gains he has, and set the stage for another attack later, he needs to do it under the current Regency. And he needs to do it quick. What could make things move faster than a nuclear threat? Also, don’t forget that in all the ways that matter, Vladimir is already at war with much of the West. So far it’s been mostly low-level stuff, like this reported at Legal Insurrection (if you aren’t reading LI and esp. Leslie’s science reporting, you are missing out). The sabotage is more than troubling as it has a greater chance of escalation than nuclear sabre rattling.

Under most circumstances, I would say that the chances of things going nuclear under Vladimir were under ten percent. For all that he may be many things, I generally don’t think he’s THAT stupid. It’s why I tend to see the IRBM launch as an act of desperation even more than an act of careful escalation.

The only problem is, as I’ve been pointing out for two-plus years now, desperate people do stupid things. Russia finds itself battered upon the rocks such that any chance of the dream of Russkiy Mir are fading faster than the career of the Snow White actress. They are beset by matters economic, demographic, disease (AIDs and more), brain drain, and unrest in restive provinces. On our end of things, you have an administration and an administrative state that sees the end of the world as they know it. Which is why I’m not quite sure what to think about this article (HT Rich Lowe) suggesting a push for nuclear war to prevent the loss of power. Have to admit, what I would have considered unthinkable not all that long ago is now very thinkable.

Likely is the key, however. I don’t think we are there yet, and while it never hurts to prepare for the worst, I am not moving to gather the last-minute prep if I think the bombs are about to fly. I’m still very much trying to take care of basics (and thank you to everyone who donated recently! Your gifts are helping me get caught up on several things including needed OTCs and winter clothing).

I think where we are is an effort to cripple operations by Ukraine and to give an administration, that has ample reasons to forestall various efforts and investigations by an incoming administration, a valid excuse to move rapidly on a “settlement” beneficial to all (except the peoples of the countries involved).

If we were moving faster and closer to a nuclear exchange, I would expect to see some other signs. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I’m doubtful for now. If it does happen, as I’ve been saying for a while now, I will be surprised if twenty percent of the systems work. I really don’t want to find out if I’m right, as there really is only one way to do so. But, I don’t see a need for fear or panic just yet.

I do think you should be prepared, as preparedness always pays. Hit the preparedness archive at need, and if you have questions, sound out. I hope to do a bit more on preparedness soon.

So, grab a towel and don’t panic. Be prepared, up your preparedness, and keep your friends close and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

IRBM Use

Is it an escalation? Yes. It is concerning? Yes. Is it significant? Yes, but not necessarily in the way Vladimir intends/intended. More thoughts later, probably tomorrow, but while it bears (pun intended) watching, it may be more a sign of weakness than of strength. I’m out of pocket today, result of a special liturgy for the Archangel Michael (and all the angels, including my guardian angel to whom I am profusely apologizing for past actions) and other delights including Christmas Carol practice. No, don’t think Vladimir is going to do anything (yet at least) to interrupt plans and the holidays. Keep an eye on it, but much more worried about ongoing sabotage efforts than this.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

I’m Not Quite

To the point that Instapundit seems to be, but I’m close. And not just on Russian systems and nuclear devices — our own are in a rather parlous state. Nor is my take on Russia just because of the latest launch test failure.

There is a lot I don’t share here either because I can’t confirm it or because while there may be some confirmation I’m having a hard time believing it. This includes internal politics and intrigue in the Kremlin, and in Russia in general. It doesn’t include the sad state of Russia’s much vaunted stockpiles, as that information has been confirmed in every way possible short of personal physical inspection. And while I wouldn’t mind so doing, I do suspect Vladimir and a few others might object to my so doing.

However, it does include Russia’s special weapons and launch systems. And our own. In both cases, launch tests have not gone to plan (cough), launch and other systems have had issues, and one has to wonder about maintenance — which special weapons require even above and beyond launch systems.

Give Russia credit: our “elite leadership” have us stuck with Minuteman systems and have shot down, shut down, or otherwise killed everything that could have replaced it. Russia is working to update it’s launch systems via the liquid-fueled SARMAT II (SATAN II) which we have discussed before. This Ronco missile (it slices, it dices, it can dance, it can sing, etc.) was supposed to replace previous systems. Five years ago. Still ain’t there. See previous discussions for more on it. Heck, there are rumors of a SATAN III in development, but given that SARMAT still isn’t up and running I’m inclined to put that down to marketing for now.

We’ve also talked a bit here before about nuclear weapons and such, and that they can have a bit of a delicate disposition. To be polite. Some of the comments on previous discussions have highlighted such, and come from people with firsthand knowledge.

Officially, I’m still in the twenty percent block; that is, I think as many as twenty percent of the launch systems (other than submarine launched missiles) may work, twenty percent of the warheads may work, etc. I am, however, starting to revise that down a bit. I really don’t want to find out if I’m right, but the smart money is on Russia (and ourselves) blustering but not risking. Now, insanity comes in the form of Iran and other newer members/soon-to-be members of the nuclear club as I think their efforts may well work as they have not been hobbled by test bans and the like. Not a happy making thought.

If anyone uses a weapon in the near future, and it works, betting it is the latter rather than Russia or ourselves.

By the way, if anyone has any info on if the 1,000 Chechen troops supporting Vladimir are still in Moscow at the hotel, please let me know. As I have noted more than once recently, there are some strange things going on in and around a certain red-brick structure.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Flip Side

Yesterday, I talked a bit about the Pagercide (and more) committed against Hezballess by parties unknown (cough) but widely suspected to be Israel. As I noted then, it was and is a masterstroke of an op and targeted against leadership with minimal chances of collateral damage. Brilliant. Pity they reportedly had to go early.

But, as I noted yesterday, it does raise a number of questions, many of which fall under the umbrella of ‘is it a good idea to buy products, especially critical products, from an open or potential enemy country?’ It is a very important question, and I’m old enough to remember when purchasing com gear from a NATO member who wasn’t always, er, in sync with NATO and it’s operations, generated a bit of conversation — some of it in public even.

Yet, a decade or three ago we began outsourcing a lot of our manufacturing, assembly, and other work to China and other countries that were potential enemies, somewhat open enemies, or former open enemies. Now, admittedly we have a thing about rebuilding former enemies and trying to turn them into our friends. Sometimes it works; sometimes it works for a few decades; and, sometimes it really doesn’t work no matter how much one or both sides try to paper over things. China is a case of where we tried to turn a potential/semi-open enemy into a friend and bring them out of communism in the process, and in my opinion at least it has been an abject failure on both counts.

Now, Cdr. Salamander and members of the naval brigade have been jumping up and down and pointing out that buying critical products, like port cranes and more, from China was a bad idea. They have been jumping up and down for a decade, if not longer, in fact. A number of others in non-naval roles have done the same for other products in other areas. I will simply note that when I’ve tried to point out that it is a bad idea derision is about the nicest response, and they go downhill from there. Lots of DC applecarts would be upset by recognizing reality. Heck, the CCP and Winnie the Pooh really don’t even bother to hide all the money (and other considerations) flowing into American politics and politicians, even into academia and other fields.

I’m less worried about explosives in devices as I would hope that despite the massive corruption and incompetence is our major institutions such would be discovered fairly quickly. That said, it is a possibility especially if you weren’t obvious about it. There are other things that I think are a far greater possibility that our elites and major institutions are furiously ignoring.

First up, intelligence gathering. Just for fun, go look at your phone, computer, the computers in your household appliances, the computers in your car, and other delights. How many of them are made in China? Other interesting countries? How about the major components such as chips? Where were they assembled?

Now, think about how easy it is for a company like, say, Apple to monitor what you do and have on your computer? Think they can’t and don’t? You haven’t read your terms of service, and unless you take steps that destroy a lot of functionality, they can, have, and will hoover a lot of info and can share it with LE and others quite legally. It is also not that hard to activate built-in cameras and microphones, both by the manufacturer and others who are up to no good. Most every computer security person I know has tape over their camera unless in use, and some have even installed switches to control microphones — even if they take a more ‘moderate’ approach in public comments. That says a lot.

Now, add in that if you have a smart home of any type, you’ve given permission to more than one entity to monitor everything said in your home. Ostensibly it is both to ensure commands are heard and to train the system to understand what you (and others) are saying so commands can be heard and heard correctly. How hard to you think it is for other parties to gain access to that info, openly or covertly? Especially if they make the hardware or the key components of same?

Now, take it a step further. How many of those large and important cargo cranes in our ports are made in the U.S. and how many of them are made in China? On the latter, who wrote the software and what is contained in all those lines of code? Chips are incredibly complex, are you sure you know what every part of every chip does? How many other critical products, including military products, use chips or other parts made overseas? Imagine if a data packet could be sent to tap something hidden in plain sight, and shut those products down? Or simply change a charging parameter so that your lithium battery overheats?

Years ago, a friend of mine named Bryan Gibson (sadly passed now, a very good artist) came up with a concept for a story where in a futuristic society terrorists attacked by simply changing tolerances in systems by one decimal place. Imagine if auto-avoidance or terrain-following systems suddenly went to feet (or more) instead of inches of tolerance in areas where inches counted? Don’t know that it ever got finished, but it is not only a quick way to create chaos, but to cause populations to lose faith and confidence in their systems. And, with a lot of fiction, it was a warning. One we have not heeded.

Just as an aside, if you are not aware, various Western government agencies often insist on backdoors for things like encryption, other software, and even systems and networks. Sure they get proper warrants to use it, really.

Heck of a thing when you have to start with the assumption your systems are compromised from the start. Even more fun is realizing how easy it would be for someone to turn them all off or otherwise manipulate them.

Imagine that things go hot with China. What would happen if a signal were sent, or a regular signal not received, and the port cranes quit or began to operate wildly? Same to systems in power plants and other critical infrastructure? Even down to your smart refrigerator and other appliances in your home?

It’s not that far fetched, and in fact it is a cold douche of reality that it can happen. We are conditioned in many respects to giving up privacy for the convenience of our smartphones and apps, which gleefully send information on our locations, purchases, purchasing habits, and more to those who use it and sell it. Not that hard for an enemy, foreign or domestic, to tap into those data streams. Not that hard for someone ill-intentioned to use our hardware and even software against us.

Leaving aside domestic considerations, it’s beyond foolish to allow open or potential enemies to supply critical infrastructure and systems. Civilian, military, it doesn’t matter. The opportunities for intel and for system denial in time of war or crisis are far greater than most realize or will admit.

Caveat Emptor.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Bravo!

Sorry for the lack of posting, been fighting a sinus infection and other smaller issues. Took some time to rest and heal a bit.

The operation by whomever (cough, Israel has not officially said it was them, cough) to take out Hezballess (HT Chris Loesch as apparent originator) operatives was masterful. On several levels even.

First, it was fairly precise targeting, which limited (nothing can eliminate the possibility of) “civilian” casualties. Limiting the explosive to one or two ounces helped guarantee limitation of collateral damage. Those who are screaming otherwise, and that it was against the rules of war, are both wrong and far more upset that their favored side was hurt and that the Jews dared defend themselves instead of just lining up for the slaughter. By their words and actions, they reveal who and what they are. Make notes.

Second, if they could intercept and do this to THOUSANDS of pagers, do you think they wouldn’t be able to also use those devices to track locations, monitor communications, and more? Months of data, and just the location data alone would have revealed locations and more. Where did they meet? With whom did they meet? Where did they go when things got hot? The so-called meta data on this is tremendous on its own. If they literally did get inside their coms and were reading the mail…

Third, most interesting that the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon had a Hezballess-issued pager. Not surprising in the least, but interesting. Even more interesting is that a rumor is making the rounds that the pagers were altered in Iran. For those that aren’t familiar with how things like this work, it is not likely that Hezballess placed a direct order with Gold Apollo for the pagers. Because of sanctions and other delights, there would have been cut-outs, middle-men, and such in play. Odds are good that various blinds and fronts were used by the IRGC to get them and have them shipped indirectly to Iran. From there, they would then go to Hezballess.

Now, think back to the recent assassination (that made the news) allegedly by Israel (who once again has not claimed credit) inside Iran. That one set a cat amongst the pigeons in Iran as members of the IRGC (and possibly others) were implicated. Nice little round of purges and accusations got going before being stomped out by Iran’s top leadership. Lots of hard feelings, suspicions, and upset at not being able to eliminate internal enemies (political) on the part of several it would seem. Now there is this. Openly or not, the cat is back amongst the pigeons and there is a good chance of all heck breaking loose. Let your enemies attack themselves is an ancient and honorable concept, and I think it just got played beautifully.

Fourth, if you think Israel wasn’t watching the hospitals and other locations to see who came in and when, and wasn’t monitoring local social media for news and IDs, I’ve got a bridge for sale… Again, no way for them to know in advance who all the members of Hezballess were. They do now, and can plot that against all the intel from the metadata and…

Oh, and as for those who are screaming about doctors having pagers too, note that only doctors (and other medical types) who were members of Hezballess were issued “augmented” pagers. No danger to honest medical types, only terrorists. See the above about those who are upset as their side was hurt and no Jews died. It applies to those making this argument too.

Fifth, whomever did this just took Hezballess pretty much offline. In many respects, not just temporarily. Lots of damage, including lost hands, fingers, etc. Those that raised up to look at the mesage (a la the Iranian ambassador) have eye damage if not permanently blinded. When you are talking several thousand injured simultaneously, you’ve taken major units (and potentially several thousand others) out and rendered them combat ineffective. If Israel gets lucky, some of those having to take command are not truly fit for such and are going to do stupid things. Stupid things always, ALWAYS, open doors for the enemy, and one presumes Israel is prepared to take full advantage of such openly and covertly.

If you also go in and hit some of the critical centers you’ve already identified, you can do a lot of de-fanging. Funny that I heard reports that Israel hit a number of targets in Southern Lebanon last night…

Also smart is that Israel (if they did it, cough) was smart enough not to tell the U.S. in advance. Good thing, as in hours after U.S. officials were allegedly briefed on the op that details were leaked to corporate media, who promptly spilled the beans. Leaks to hurt Israel were the rule (and specialty) of the Obama admin, so no surprise that such continues now. Cough. One hopes that such a briefing left out key details and may have even included daisy or two. That is, information that may be true (or not) but is not precise and is intended to send people down the wrong path. After all, it’s not the first time the current admin (cough) has done such to hurt Israel. Know your enemy and use them accordingly.

One more positive benefit out of the op is that right now, terrorists everywhere are looking at their coms and going “oh bleep.” I guarantee you some have ditched pagers and other items in panic. Why? What if it wasn’t just Hezballess that was targeted? Who do you think supplies coms to Hamass, Hooties, and others around the world? Also, if one country did this, what’s to say others have not and would not do this? What this has done is to create mass uncertainty and to emulate Hamass and go as much as possible to in person and courier communications. Which will slow things down and bring up yet other opportunities for infiltration and co-option. I mean they could go carrier pigeon, but with drones and/or the amount of explosive you can fit in or on a pigeon… Just sayin…

There are some other points but I’m going to skip them for now. Especially if this was not a one-off use-or-lose op. What I will say is BRAVO! and bow in respect to a mastercraft operation. Whoever did this, my hat is off to you.

UPDATE I: The next round has begun, with radios and other devices exploding across Lebanon. What I said two paragraphs above is now playing out in the open: no electronics are safe. Terrorists around the world are having to look at all coms, and even solar chargers, as compromised. When even your battery charger can explode, there is nothing you can trust. Also, you may find the first explosive charge, but what if there is a second, hidden/camouflaged charge in the device? I mean the children and grandchildren of Pride-of-Dupont have come a long way since it pretended to be paper orders after all. Remind me tomorrow to talk about other potential Christmas Gifts/Easter Eggs of which we need be concerned.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.