Sorry, had planned to get one or more things posted yesterday, but weather and basement issues got in the way. The house where I rent a room in the basement was built either in the late 1930s or 1940s, with driveway design and other systems not exactly to modern standards. The sewer system and storm water drains in the neighborhood haven’t really been upgraded since then either I understand.
So, when we first moved in there were some signs of past flooding, and then we experienced some of our own. Yes, I lost some things and had some others damaged in one of them. No, I am not happy about it. Yes, I try to keep on the landlord as needed. To be fair, he’s dropped quite a bit of $$,$$$ on the issue including replacing the sewer line out to the property line and having work done inside as well.
One of the things he did was to install a sump pump in the trench drain across the bottom of the driveway. We have one of those fun drives that goes around the house, and there is a steep drop down to the garage. Guess where the water pours down to from around half the house? The sump pump sends the water up to the front of the house via inch+ line, and thence down the hill to the street.
Been a good system and we’ve had few issues with it in place. However, I’ve been suggesting that he needed to check and test that pump for a bit now. Heck, I want it on a BBS. Yesterday morning, we got storms and the trench drain filled up, overflowed, and was headed to the garage which is in the basement. Multiple checks by me confirmed the pump was not working. We got lucky, and did not flood
In between storms, the landlord checked on the sump pump which was warm or hot to the touch according to him, but not working. He got out an older pump that has to be manually activated, got it hooked to a hose, and it did get used. Had to go move the end of the hose as having the water come back down the drive was counterproductive, and was not amused at being out more than once in all this with lightning in the area (though thankfully at a good distance). New automatic pump is supposed to be delivered today. Needed, as we’ve already had one round of storms early this morning that had me checking things.
Needless to say, that sorta blew my planned posting for yesterday as well as getting to the gym. Instead, I played jack-in-the-box jumping up to check various things. Hoping to get to the gym here in just a bit.
The other day I talked about the uproar around getting Sgt. Gee to Arlington. In part, I noted:
Right now, all we can do is keep digging, wait, and see what comes to light. The true full story may not be what it appears, or it may be far worse than we think.
Jeff Schogol at Task and Purpose has written that the story was incorrect. That the government was never asked for money and did not deny any payment or assistance. I am relieved, but am also left with even more questions, and am not sure things still pass the smell test. As it is, I am glad she is in Arlington, and that her service and death are being honored.
Oh, and on the Russian front (all puns intended), if you’ve been reading that Pringles was dead, arrested, etc., you need to find better sources to read. He’s been in public taking part in diplomatic conferences and doing other things. Good reason to think my suspicions that Wagner is going to pivot to the Middle East and Africa as primary areas of activity seem to be on the mark. Take a look at the coup in Niger and who has just offered troops and other services to the new regime. Pringles and Vladimir may no longer be best buds, but the Kremlin is clearly planning on using Wagner for work overseas.
If needed, remind me that I need to go back to some previous writings and discuss what it will take to ensure peace in Europe (and elsewhere) as what there are some interesting signs in that regard. Still think it very dangerous, but…
Am hoping to get a local politics post up later, as the local situation has some national implications. It also points out why I want to get moved as soon as practical after my next surgery.
UPDATE: Made it to the gym, did well, feel good, added in something to the mix as well. Stopped by a historic diner nearby and grabbed a salad. Their buttermilk chicken is good fried or grilled. The salad will make at least one more meal, if not two. Wow. Local politics may have to wait, as I’m a sated and somewhat sleepy wolf right now.
More soon.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Sorry to be so silent, but things are moving along. Mostly in good ways.
First, we entered a new phase of physical therapy, which is much more active. Good news is, already seeing yet more increase in range of motion. Also, figuring out where the issues are and having a lot more discomfort, and even some pain. The latter is usually brief, thankfully; but, the discomfort has been a bit more of a bear. It also probably doesn’t help that I’m trying to cut back (cut out pref.) acetaminophen as it doesn’t do as much as I would like and is frankly toxic. Take a look at liver deaths for people with chronic pain for but one example of why I want to be off it.
Add to that I’m hitting the gym three times a week. Main focus is aerobic/cardio, but also doing my home PT there as much as possible. I’ve bought a couple more things for home, so that when my paid PT runs out I can keep going. Going to look into trying to raise funds to do some more PT after insurance stops. We’ve changed things now to twice a week to make what I do have last, and paid might be as little as once every two weeks (or even once a month). Working on it.
Now, for the stories and events I’m following and find interesting.
First up, this one involving getting Sgt. Nicole Gee to Arlington sent me through the roof yesterday. As I noted on social media, if true I want heads on pikes. Problem is, the story is not adding up with the information given in the media. This is not to say it is a fake. This is just saying that at this time, with the information we have, it does not make sense. I’ve been talking with Beege Welborn at HotAir, who knows far too well what is involved with Arlington burials.
I’m hoping she can come up with more than I have, as right now there seems to be a lot of duck-and-cover going on in anticipation of a major shit storm rolling down. Lots of insinuation, but no real facts yet.
I know that at one point in time the Army had a liaison assigned to each family of the fallen to help. I will note that it is my understanding that Arlington assigns a liaison to the families to help with the process. That would include coordination on preparations and transportation if they are being reinterred. Depending on location of prior burial and other considerations, there may be an exhumation fee and there will be a fee to transport a body. In this case, such should be covered by DoD, especially in this case. Frankly, SecDef should have sent his personal plane given the responsibility he and senior leaders have in her death.
The $100k figure quoted in the article appears to be the cost of a fully-staffed air ambulance to transport a patient coast-to-coast. The $60k is still a mystery to me. Exhumation should not have been more than about $7k, more likely towards $1k in a civilian cemetery, and there should have been no charge if she was buried at a military cemetery. Major carrier like Delta or AA, if they didn’t do it for free, should have been about $3k (cargo rate). Maybe $5k if special containment required for some odd reason. If a local funeral home had to be involved with taking her body from Dulles to Arlington, there might have been a fee.
While we wait for more information, I will simply note that we are sadly long removed from the days of Taking Chance. Can I see multiple failures of command and leadership resulting in a series of FUBARs by multiple individuals military and civil service? Far too easily I’m afraid. In fact, from some of the reactions the story is getting I’m sort of leaning that way, but I also admit to cynicism and bias.
Right now, all we can do is keep digging, wait, and see what comes to light. The true full story may not be what it appears, or it may be far worse than we think. If the latter, people need to be immediately cashiered from uniformed and civil service.
The other story I’m watching is the alleged drone attack on the MoD in Moscow. I say alleged for a reason, as there is no evidence of any drones anywhere near there. The damage looks far more like someone opened up with the AD guns (as opposed to missiles) either shooting at ghosts or shooting in a panic. Right now, leaning towards a combination of vodka for the right parties and panic at an imaginary threat. That said, if I wanted to truly fuck with the readiness of an enemy’s AD readiness, sending someone in with the gear to create ghosts at random would be a good way to do it.
I will also note the stupidity and cupidity of our leadership in going along with the insane concept promoted by Russia that it is an illegal act of terror for a country it has invaded to attack its territory. Can anyone find me a citation of any historical precedent for such? This is Vladimir in his dirty and frayed undershirt screaming at the police that if the bitch had just not resisted she wouldn’t be dead on a larger scale.
Here’s a clue to Vladimir and others: if you invade a sovereign nation, bomb not just its capital but most cities and target civilians, they have the right to return the favor. That’s not escalation in any way shape or form, just a legal and proper response to your aggression. I understand that what you are saying is for an internal audience, but the rest of us can point at it and you and laugh and laugh and laugh.
More soon.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Okay, the Biden Regency is moving to tap the IRR. If memory serves (stupid lightning) the last time we did this was the First Gulf War. W considered it during the GWOT but if I remember correctly (and a veteran on social media is right) it ended up being extremely limited to some very specialized MOS. The howls of outrage from the media and elsewhere over even thinking of tapping the IRR were long and loud. Word is, those forced back in during FGW were far from happy (massive understatement) and made that known.
For the GWOT, I would note that things were done to allow IRR who wanted to return to volunteer to do so. While there were (apparently) a few very select MOS pulled back involuntarily, a number did indeed volunteer to return.
For those not familiar, there are two elements to our national military reserve. When you sign on that dotted line, you are not just signing up for a single hitch, no matter what you may think. While you have options, you also incur some non-discretionary obligations.
Most people are familiar with the Selected Reserve (SELRES) where people join the National Guard or Reserve after an active-duty hitch or hitches, and maintain active status while participating in regular drills, training, etc. You maintain an active military ID and at need you can get that bright and joyous notice that you are recalled to active duty.
A lot of the public is unfamiliar with the IRR, or Individual Ready Reserve. Technically, that’s pretty much anyone who has ever served. Some in the IRR are completing terms of military service, and the fact that IRR members can be involuntarily recalled is often downplayed IMO. The idea is to have a cadre of (semi) trained troops that can be called upon “in time of national crisis.” In other words, something really bad has happened.
IRR does not maintain current military ID, does not drill or participate in regular training, draw uniforms, etc. They do have to do a yearly readiness screening. Cough.
So, drawing on the IRR is not something one does lightly. Those recalled have to be brought back in, the rust blown off, and unless they are recently detached that takes time. Those pulled back in involuntarily are likely to be a bit grumpy and uncooperative. Cough.
So, the decision by the Biden Regency to use the IRR is raising eyebrows in the military/veteran community. I’ve heard rumors that this particular action in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve is normal and happens every year. However, I’ve not been able to confirm that and people who should know if it is true or not have not said it is. Going to keep an ear open on that.
The use of Guard/Reserve troops in support is not surprising. There are units that are tasked to step into various roles, including critical roles, in the event of war and that they would take part is a given (and smart). It’s the use of IRR that is concerning.
Absent a national crisis that has depleted resources in Active and Guard/Reserve formations, or pulling a few people with extremely select MOS, why hit the IRR?
I fear it says much about our readiness, manning, and capabilities. If we are in a position where Active and Guard/Reserve formations can’t provide enough manpower (and the correct manpower), we are in deep trouble. Then again, we’ve known the military was in trouble for a while. That said, the use of the IRR would tend to indicate that things are a lot worse than we thought.
This is another one of those where I hope I’m wrong and the info I getting from those I trust is wrong. I really hope this is just limited to a very small number of people with a very specific MOS who have recently left service. Otherwise, what it says about our ability to fight a one-front war, much less the two-front we are supposed to be capable fighting, borders on terrifying.
NOTE: VodkaPundit has, as usual, a good take on this.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Things got kicked up a notch at PT yesterday, which has me moving a bit slow today. PT is far from what I consider a strenuous workout, but it seems to hit in many of the same ways.
For example, by the time I got back from PT and having to run down to pick up some refills, I was starving. So, I hit the taco truck for a couple of good asada tacos (proper, cilantro and onion), which I was going to photograph to share with a friend. As soon as the box was opened, they were inhaled. No photos. No crumbs. No nothing left but the container. Breakfast this morning was also inhaled, and I’ve been hungry since.
I am cooking at least breakfast again. The problem has been more doing dishes, which really can’t be done one handed IMO. Also, while I’ve done a bit of offhanded shooting/weapons work over the years, it never occurred to me that I might should learn to whip eggs and flip eggs and other things off-handed.
I actually slept better last night than I have in a while. Not great, but better. That said, up early and moving slow. More discomfort than pain, but I can tell they did step things up.
It is interesting where things are going in terms of politics in Russia. A piece that some seem to be missing is that Wagner owns some critical resources in the CAR, as well as controlling other resources (on behalf of Russia/Vladimir) elsewhere. For all that Pringles is loyal to Vladimir (and yes, I do think he is in his own very Russian way), keep in mind that others — including some who work hard to stay in the background — are involved with those resource efforts in Africa and elsewhere. To say that what is going on is Byzantine is an understatement, but Russian politics have always tended that way. To the dismay of many in Foggy Bottom who persist in thinking that they are just like us but talk funny. Let me reiterate that if you are basing your take on how we do things and what makes sense to us, you will continue to be disappointed, unpleasantly surprised at events, and wrong about the outcomes.
Another thing I’m noting is some of the discussions of artillery and how Ukraine is being outgunned. True, they are. Russia has stockpiles of artillery and ammo — most of which were subjected to the same looting and storage as their tanks and such. Duds are one thing, but the guns and ammo that get cranky when fired are reportedly making life interesting for the Russian red leg brigades. It is straying from politics and into operational, which I try not to do, but look at the accuracy difference between Russia and Ukraine. It’s significant. Yes, with numbers you can overcome precision. If all the numbers work.
Also, while our enemies probably know we are out of critical segments of ammo, Joe going and telling the world that’s true is not a good thing. Never confirm, and never give the enemy an advantage. Admitting it, and pretty much admitting we are going to be years if not decades (see previous writings and links in this category) rebuilding stockpiles (which were far too little to start with) falls under the category of “bad thing.”
And, yes, our stockpiles of every type of ammo are inadequate for actual combat. If you can tell me a single time the bean counters have been right about numbers needed for the last 100 years, it will be news to me. They always vastly underestimate what is needed, and I’m beginning to suspect that it may well be a historical truism.
As for Russia stepping up production of various weapons: how? They depend on ball bearings from the U.S. and Europe for their tanks and more. Chips from the West for almost everything. They have lost a great deal of manufacturing capability, and if they can’t obtain parts and more from the West, well… Again, if you aren’t following Kamil Galeev, you should be.
Can things get out of control in terms of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Yes. Do I expect to see global thermonuclear war any time soon? No. Nuclear exchange? Maybe. Nuclear terrorism? Actually, yes. I still say that if it hits the point Vladimir can’t win he may just decide that no one should have the territory and what’s needed to unleash a dirty war has already been practiced almost a year ago. Still, right now, I would expect to see some form of conventional expansion before any of the nightmare scenarios being breathlessly touted.
Besides, as I’ve noted before: Vladimir wants to hurt us, not help us. With the Biden Regency and related doing more damage to the Republic than he could hope to inflict with a thousand nukes, I don’t see him taking out DC or initiating a larger exchange (which is problematic per previous writings) anytime soon. It would take something truly massive to change that I think. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not so much even with the staggering competence of the Biden Regency. (/sarc)
Meantime, I need to get back to doing more writing on preparedness, especially given how things are going domestically. Definitely have some new points to consider and perhaps lessons to share given the start of the shoulder replacements.
Keep your friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Life is interesting, and I suspect it is about to get even more so.
I knew last night it was going to be interesting when I heard from multiple sources that FORTRESS had been activated in Moscow and loyal troops (or at least troops with loyalty that could be assured by various means) were being sent to secure key facilities. Lots of RUMINT flying around along with some interesting reports.
This morning sees a so-far successful march towards Moscow that I’m having a hard time believing happened on the fly. All the Wagner ops so far show prior planning and preparation. Rather than a coup, this comes across as a revolution and yes there is a difference.
The Russian governmental response so far evokes the term-of-art “clusterfuck.” They appear to have been caught flat-footed and without a clue on how to respond. Attacks on the Moscow column appear to be piecemeal and uncoordinated. The only active opposition in Rostov is coming from Kadyrov’s Chechen troops (apparently). Attacking fuel depots is an interesting choice that will have little immediate impact in this case.
Which brings us to the heart of the matter. This may succeed, even if completely crushed. For all that a number of regional politicians and others are swearing loyalty to Vladimir, one does have to question the sincerity. Others are either hopping on the Prighozin bandwagon or stirring the waters on their own. At least one nominally independent member of the Federation has informed Vladimir that his country regards this as a purely internal Russian matter.
More concerning for Moscow should be how fast things went from ‘who are you and you need to go’ by the citizens of Rostov-on-Don to the Wagner troops, to the citizens bringing food and drink to those same troops. Look at the reactions of the average citizens to the March on Moscow. Hell, if the SIGINT intercept reports are true in regards the chatter in and between various Russian units in Ukraine/Crimea, the Russian MoD might be getting ready to have a Very Bad Day, if not more.
What’s more, Vladimir’s attack dog turned on him. This matters to Russian mores in a way few Westerners can grasp. Here, we are used to politicians having all the loyalty of jackals coming upon road kill. Things work different there. This is going to be seen as a weakness, a vulnerability, even if Prighozin fails.
For now, we can but wait and watch. I think the only sure thing is that it is going to be interesting.
UPDATE: Interesting is one word, that’s for sure. Does not add up based on what we know. Ergo, there’s more, and more people, involved than we know. Knowing who’s fingers were in this is even more important now. Keeping the ears open and waiting to see what happens next.
Yes, I do hear a good bit that I don’t share. Sometimes it is because the info is suspect or can’t be verified. Sometimes it is because the info is flat out wrong. Sometimes, it is because it appears to be quite genuine and I don’t want to mess up what (may) be going on.
In regards the drone attack on Moscow, I’m simply going to suggest noting the very, very, extremely precise wording out of certain quarters. There is a world of difference between a party not being involved and not being directly involved. Which begs questions about who was directly involved and why.
Russia has had a lot of mysterious fires and such since the invasion started. Been a number of accidents rail and otherwise. Now, a larger drone attack on Moscow. Tie this in with other things going on…
The old wolf smiles and begins to whistle to himself as he contemplates the board…
For all I am a bit pre-occupied by the upcoming surgery, I am trying to keep up with things. I am watching Nigeria as the attack on our diplomatic convoy says interesting things.
I’m also trying to keep up with the happenings in Russia. There is a good bit going on, from smoke (the alleged upgrades to mobile missiles) to something that may be a bit more solid. I think we could see a major upheaval within the higher levels of the Kremlin in the next few months.
The source of that is, of course, Prigozhin. His feud with the MoD is in many respects as much political as operational. So much so he ended up on the outs with Vladimir and while there are some reports that there was some level of reconciliation, the response to Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut rather clearly indicated not so much. Nevermind that directly or by proxy he seems to be taking steps to possibly make a run at the top spot.
He very much continues to push the limits of what criticism can be made against Vladimir, and seems determined to not just push that line but eradicate it. His comments and rants are beyond current cultural norms for such, and he seems to want to go even further. That is a rather risky thing to do in Russia, particularly right now, unless he is willing to make a true play for the top.
The Washington Post “expose” of his alleged dealings with Ukrainian intelligence is not helping his position in Russia. For all the pro-forma being said by the government in public, in private far more interesting conversations seem to be happening. I do have questions about the leak, as I don’t trust anything from the Post, especially something like this.
Do I expect anything to happen in the next couple of weeks? No. Not unless someone gets a major case of the stupids. Do I think things could come to a head in regards Prigozhin in the next three months? Oh, yes. Particularly if he continues his efforts to criticize Vladimir while continuing to make behind-the-scenes preparations. I’ve talked before about the cultural norms, and by moving beyond them Prigozhin is not just alienating a lot of potential support, but ensuring opposition to any political moves in a number of quarters.
For those interested in the WP “leak” and a different (but similar) take on things, check out this from the ISW.
Let’s start with a bit of a mini-rant: The Kremlin IS NOT A BUILDING! It’s a freakin brick walled fortress containing multiple buildings and extensive grounds. In fact, somewhat better than 70 acres according to some sources.
Kremlin seen from Red Square
Kremlin on the river side
Kremlin seen from river bridge
I’ve got more photos, but this gives you a better idea of the size of the place. There are many buildings, extensive gardens, and you can get in some serious walking going through some of the museums inside. The buildings are very well built, because many/most of them date from the time of the Czars — which means the walls are a yard or more thick to deal with the cold weather. They’ve found it is a far better idea to gut and build new insides in them rather than tear them down, as they are generally in good shape and far better built than modern structures.
Never mind the fact that there are reported to be multiple bunkers underneath. In fact, some decent RUMINT has it that the first such shelter was built by Stalin as an offshoot of the Moscow subway system. The rumor that special trains can take off from the Kremlin to various get-away points at need still abounds. Now, add to this the fact that Vladimir does not live at the Kremlin despite the Senate Palace being his official home. He purportedly has multiple abodes in Moscow and nearby, more than one of which is alleged to have a bunker system.
Now, two good reads on the “attack” (and I use the quotes very deliberately) are this one from Ed Morrisey and this one from Stephen Green. Lots of good food for thought in both. I’ve been holding off on my analysis because there was a lot of stuff going on in regards this, and more bad information than there should have been in some areas.
Let’s get a few things out of the way. Someone raised on my timeline on Twitter that this could have been a Doolittle-type raid to raise morale. In terms of U.S. and Western culture, possibly. However, in terms of Russian (and Ukrainian) culture, NO. It is far more likely to keep things going in Russia in support of the invasion, and even cause escalation. I can’t stress enough how different Russian culture is from our own. They are not ‘just like us but talk funny.’
Next, while I am sure a one- or two-off system could be developed to hit Moscow from Ukraine, Ukraine does not currently have systems in use that can do it. Knowing that a hit on the Kremlin, symbolic or not, would have on the Russian government and populace, I can’t see them doing it, they are not that stupid. As for sending in a A-team of something similar to launch from within Russia, why? Why not instead use it to hit more supply depots, logistic hubs, and other prime targets directly supporting the invasion as they have been doing, but deeper behind the lines?
As for it being an assassination attempt, two things. First for all that the Russians are acting all butt hurt and upset (remember prior discussion on here about this very type thing and the whole ‘if she hadn’t fought back I wouldn’t have killed her’ mindset), Vladimir is a legitimate target. So far, any attempts to go after him or other senior leaders (allegedly) have taken place when they were in occupied territory, not Russia. There is a point to that.
Second, unless you have been there it is hard to describe how well built those Czarist buildings are: yard-plus thick walls, etc. From the little, and I do stress little, fireworks show seen, I don’t see major damage occurring.
Now, let’s consider that Moscow, and the Kremlin, have air defense networks. We just talked about the additional systems brought in a few weeks ago. Now, unless this was somehow the last ride of Mathias Rust, you are talking about getting two drones through a few hundred miles of airspace allegedly on high alert. For all that I am questioning and reconsidering a number of estimates of capabilities and numbers, color me skeptical.
So, to my mind, it comes down to two choices. An act of provocation by the ultranationalists; or, a false flag by the government.
For the first, there are several groups that have been pushing to go all in, from some of the Russian milbloggers to a variety of politicians. I could easily see some of them launching such an “attack” and doing a bit of self-destruct to prevent doing any real damage. They understand how this will be perceived by the government and the public, and wanted to provide that opportunity to the government.
On the second, it is very easy to see Vladimir doing something like this so he can escalate things. After all, after blowing up apartment buildings to gain power this is nothing. Send them in, have them heroically destroyed at the last possible moment, and you have an excuse to escalate. It fits in cultural and political constraints.
NOTE: There does appear to be a growing “partisan” movement in Russia. Fires and rail sabotage are one thing, but I don’t see them as doing this as it would bring about a huge crackdown for no gain.
Either way, Vladimir is going to seize on this opportunity. It gives him a chance to rattle the Biden Regency’s cage with threats of nuclear war or more; it frees him to act with less restraint in Ukraine; and, it could allow a chance to retreat for now with honor.
Vladimir has already blamed the U.S. for the attack, with Ukraine in the role of puppet/catspaw. He knows that the nuclear threat (which isn’t much of a threat these days IMO) terrifies Biden and/or the Regency and will use it as much as he can to get as much as he can. Even on non-nuclear options, expect to see him push as hard and far as he can.
Within operations against Ukraine, he now has options to bring in more troops (clothing, ammo, and food apparently optional), and take other steps to try to gain something. Would I be surprised to see more brutal attacks on civilians, justified by this attack? No, I’d be surprised if it didn’t happen. In fact, I see a lot of petty and vicious destruction for the sake of destruction in the future, along the lines of ‘If I can’t have you, nobody will.’ I still see Vladimir using the nuke plants and more to devastate Ukraine if he can’t have it, it fits both him and the culture.
Could he use special weapons? Yes, but I think that would be stupid. I still see the chances as ten percent or less, but desperate people do stupid things. As A. Nonymous put it in a comment on a previous post: “but stupid, desperate people sometimes do stupid, desperate things.” To recap earlier discussions: current troops do not appear to have MOPP gear. Using chemical or biological agents could take out more of his troops than Ukrainian. Nuclear use will force the West to act, and possibly over-react. I think given all that is starting to come out about nuclear forces, it’s really not a great idea for him to rattle that saber or otherwise go there.
One of the reasons I held off writing until now is that almost immediately after the attack, there were reports of nuclear weapons being moved in Russia. Some of these came from normally reliable sources, but I was not seeing confirmation nor was I seeing the responses that should occur in NATO and Western forces. Turns out, disinformation, some of which may have been aimed at discrediting sources. If you are looking for alerts and fairly solid info, check out Defcon.
Now, to get to that retreat with honor option that has some of you out there jumping up and down like a 6-year-old doing the pee-pee dance. One option I do see is for Vladimir to bring together enough power (military and political) to create some “great victory” that he can then claim was the goal and pull back to the 2014 lines. Ukraine (and others) are not going to be satisfied with that, but it works for Russia and Russians. It’s even similar to something Prigozhin proposed recently.
You can jump up and down and talk world opinion and such, but just keep in mind: Vladimir Doesn’t Care! All of this has been and is focused inside the bubbles. There are several bubbles within the big one. Within that big one, the opinion of the outside world does not matter.
Oh, speaking of Prigozhin, I would take the threat to pull his troops out with a grain of salt. About a pound-sized grain of Maldon smoked salt even. I disagree with Jazz’s take in a few areas, as I think if he does pull his troops out that it will backfire on him. Given that the kiss-and-make-up with Vladimir appears to be less than some have portrayed, and that he still is setting himself up to move up one way or another, he is on thinner ice than I think many suspect. Possibly including him. Note that his war on Shoigu and Gerasimov continues, which says interesting things. He has to know that Shoigu is set to take a bullet/fall for Vladimir, so going after him at this point might not be smart.
Now, on to another point raised by the keen mind of Stephen Green. He’s disappointed to see two so-called conservatives start parroting the Kremlin line. As for Catturd, I actually do enjoy some of his posts (particularly his dog/cat posts). But, he is, as noted, a shitposter who is what I would call an EverTrumper. As for Dreher, I used to respect him, especially given his role in exposing sex abuse within the Church. I lost almost all respect for him about three years ago. In some ways he reminds me a bit of Seymour Hersh: good work early, then drek. Dreher is in the NeverTrump camp and seems ready to hang out with David French. There is really not much difference between the two camps, as neither depends on the intellect and honor of its members, only blind obedience. Sorry, I’m in the “earn my vote” club and try to think and learn before I vote.
I am pretty much with him on his conclusion. I think we do have an obligation (thank you Bill Clinton, you jerk!) to them, and agree that we can’t let this aggression go unchecked. We just can’t do it at the levels we have been, because we have already crippled ourselves military and economically. Others have to step up. I notice that the Baltics and Poland, who understand what current events and Russkiy Mir mean to their future, are stepping up big time. Would that some of our other alleged allies do the same.
I’m still very much of the opinion that Kamil Galeev and others are right. If we want peace, and we want a peaceful future, the current Russian Federation needs to be broken up. I don’t know a good way to do it, certainly not a safe way to do it, but as long as Russkiy Mir and the dream of Imperial Russia lives, no one is safe.
Having to visit doctors today, so posting may be lite. So, I thought I would do an educational post. If you don’t already know it, there is a Russian word you need to know: Smekalka. Learn about it, and the backstory to the growing number of outhouses getting vaporized in Ukraine, here. Drink warning.
A local radio show I listen to when I can has a segment they do called “Is This Anything?” where they look at events/news stories/etc. and decide if they are something or nothing. Sorting through the mass of RUMINT and real information, I’ve decided to start doing a feature called “Something, Nothing, or Hmmmm…” about various stories, and with a focus on Russia and it’s politics. At least for now.
Let’s start with the biggest nothing that got around recently: Vladimir rattling the nuclear saber yet again. Yawn. He’s now threatened to leave two other nuclear treaties. That’s probably about the only thing he can do at this point, given issues with the nuclear forces we discussed a couple of weeks ago (here and here).
Continuing to hear of issues and problems, such that if anything does try to cook off, I think it’s going to be very limited. Sarah A. Hoyt offers a take (example here) that the Soviets/Russians never did have all the bombs and missiles claimed, and the more I’m learning, the more I think she’s been on to something. Her take on all the doomsday stuff being Soviet propaganda is dead on, as they encouraged such far and wide as a means of political warfare. The Gramscian damage from those efforts is still a huge problem today.
Which is the only real reason I find this story of the U.S. wiring Ukraine with sensors interesting. If true, it is indeed interesting but does not yet rise to the level of something. Not sure it even rates a low-level Hmmmm… yet. Worth keeping an eye on.
The reports that the Russians are having problems restoring mothballed tanks in part because they were buying the ball-bearings (and other precision parts) required from the U.S. and Europe is something. It is both amusing (we aren’t alone at buying parts and more from our enemies) and annoying (we shouldn’t be selling parts to our enemies either). Russia’s problems with machine work and manufacturing is huge, and make ours look almost tame. Fact is, we are in trouble as most of our tool and die makers are over 45 years-of-age and as such retire they are not being replaced. The number of skilled machinists is not good either. Reminds me of thirty or so years ago when glass blowers became scarce. So-called “experts” had scoffed at the idea such were needed, until they disappeared and they then learned the hard way that such were indeed needed. The inability to replace precision machined parts, and rumor has it electronics as well, is why the T-55s are coming out of museums and depots and headed to Ukraine.
As for the reports Russia has taken out two Ukrainian drones in the Moscow region rates a low-level Hmmmm… for now. If Ukraine isn’t working on developing or acquiring long-range drones, I would be shocked. In this case, the report really comes across as Russian disinformation and laying groundwork for false flag ops.
This report from the Institute for the Study of War has some interesting political tidbits as well as a lot of good info (as usual). Worth noting that Prigozhin has apparently made up with Vladimir and some others. However, what caught my eye were the replacement of the Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics and the other changes apparently coming from a senior officer who has recently gained Vladimir’s favor. As they note, all of this is ultimately aimed at Gerasimov. Also, it may be a belated step to try to undo some of the damage from looting the military, as if you want to engage in corruption and steal anything not nailed down, LOGCOM is the place to start in almost any military.
This report of explosions being heard in St. Petersburg and Rostov is a solid Hmmmm… Russia having some ooopses? Ukraine doing something unexpected? Other? Good questions.
To close out today with a solid something, let’s start with this and add in the mystery fires. Unless Ukraine has been sending in multiple A-Teams, it looks like there is a growing resistance movement in Russia. Given that simple statements opposing the invasion are resulting in prison time, children to foster care, and worse, this says something. The current leadership may be in for a rockier ride than anticipated. Definitely keep an eye on this.
