A local radio show I listen to when I can has a segment they do called “Is This Anything?” where they look at events/news stories/etc. and decide if they are something or nothing. Sorting through the mass of RUMINT and real information, I’ve decided to start doing a feature called “Something, Nothing, or Hmmmm…” about various stories, and with a focus on Russia and it’s politics. At least for now.
Let’s start with the biggest nothing that got around recently: Vladimir rattling the nuclear saber yet again. Yawn. He’s now threatened to leave two other nuclear treaties. That’s probably about the only thing he can do at this point, given issues with the nuclear forces we discussed a couple of weeks ago (here and here).
Continuing to hear of issues and problems, such that if anything does try to cook off, I think it’s going to be very limited. Sarah A. Hoyt offers a take (example here) that the Soviets/Russians never did have all the bombs and missiles claimed, and the more I’m learning, the more I think she’s been on to something. Her take on all the doomsday stuff being Soviet propaganda is dead on, as they encouraged such far and wide as a means of political warfare. The Gramscian damage from those efforts is still a huge problem today.
Which is the only real reason I find this story of the U.S. wiring Ukraine with sensors interesting. If true, it is indeed interesting but does not yet rise to the level of something. Not sure it even rates a low-level Hmmmm… yet. Worth keeping an eye on.
The reports that the Russians are having problems restoring mothballed tanks in part because they were buying the ball-bearings (and other precision parts) required from the U.S. and Europe is something. It is both amusing (we aren’t alone at buying parts and more from our enemies) and annoying (we shouldn’t be selling parts to our enemies either). Russia’s problems with machine work and manufacturing is huge, and make ours look almost tame. Fact is, we are in trouble as most of our tool and die makers are over 45 years-of-age and as such retire they are not being replaced. The number of skilled machinists is not good either. Reminds me of thirty or so years ago when glass blowers became scarce. So-called “experts” had scoffed at the idea such were needed, until they disappeared and they then learned the hard way that such were indeed needed. The inability to replace precision machined parts, and rumor has it electronics as well, is why the T-55s are coming out of museums and depots and headed to Ukraine.
As for the reports Russia has taken out two Ukrainian drones in the Moscow region rates a low-level Hmmmm… for now. If Ukraine isn’t working on developing or acquiring long-range drones, I would be shocked. In this case, the report really comes across as Russian disinformation and laying groundwork for false flag ops.
This report from the Institute for the Study of War has some interesting political tidbits as well as a lot of good info (as usual). Worth noting that Prigozhin has apparently made up with Vladimir and some others. However, what caught my eye were the replacement of the Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics and the other changes apparently coming from a senior officer who has recently gained Vladimir’s favor. As they note, all of this is ultimately aimed at Gerasimov. Also, it may be a belated step to try to undo some of the damage from looting the military, as if you want to engage in corruption and steal anything not nailed down, LOGCOM is the place to start in almost any military.
This report of explosions being heard in St. Petersburg and Rostov is a solid Hmmmm… Russia having some ooopses? Ukraine doing something unexpected? Other? Good questions.
To close out today with a solid something, let’s start with this and add in the mystery fires. Unless Ukraine has been sending in multiple A-Teams, it looks like there is a growing resistance movement in Russia. Given that simple statements opposing the invasion are resulting in prison time, children to foster care, and worse, this says something. The current leadership may be in for a rockier ride than anticipated. Definitely keep an eye on this.
So on the one hand the Russian military is obviously very, very deficient in maintaining what is supposed to be ready-reserve armor, such that tanks which should logically have been scrapped decades ago are showing up instead of the newer stuff which happens to be filled with easier-to-black-market components.
But on the other hand, every Soviet-produced nuclear warhead and rocket delivery system is still maintained at perfect readiness by highly skilled and motivated maintainers, ready to launch at a moments notice, despite being chock-full of even more valuable components than those old tanks.
All righty, then.
Heh. They wish on the second part. If even a quarter of what I’m hearing is accurate…
I’m beginning to lean towards false flag on the Kremlin Light Show. The “attack” accomplished exactly nothing, and warheads of that size were two orders of magnitude too small to accomplish anything. I could have believed it if they’d struck *during* the parade, to spoil Putin’s moment, but not in the middle of the night with nothing to show for it but camera footage. Plus, as others have pointed out, the vocal response was fairly swift and coordinated, whereas the reaction to major setbacks in the past has been delayed and disjointed. That gives it more of a feeling of reading from a script.
Now, what comes next? I honestly have no idea. A small piece of Ukraine is assuredly not worth risking the atomic destruction of Moscow and St. Petersburg (the only two places that matter to them), but stupid, desperate people sometimes do stupid, desperate things.