Military – Page 2 – The Laughing Wolf

Additional Thoughts On Gaza

FM had a good comment on my previous Gaza post, and my reply forms a good bit of today’s post. The question has been what the everliving did Iran and Hamass think they were doing with Tet II, especially with the recordings and broadcasts of the rapes, torture, and murders?

There are two things to consider on that. First, they didn’t consider the audience. Rather, for cultural reasons, it never even occurred to them that most sane people would react in horror. They had no concept of any audience other than radical Islamists like themselves. To them, the videos would be a message of power for Hamass and a message of terror for Israel. The sight of what was done would drive Israeli’s away from the land, turning it into a ghost land they could then take over. They also counted on their allies and other useful idiots to run cover for them in the media and on the world stage. The allies and idiots are trying, but as Sarah notes, it’s not really sticking.

Second, they didn’t stick to plan. This may seem a little out there, but it does make sense. Thanks to Evergreen Intel, I found this article in The Times of Israel that puts forth the idea that the original plan had been to push towards Tel Aviv but the music festival surprised and distracted them. Instead of pushing on to pose a threat, both the initial assault and the follow-on wave of “civilians” got pulled into the easy rape and killing of those at the festival. This eliminated the ability to pose a threat that would have focused military and political leadership on Hamass and Gaza.

Why do that? Maybe because an Israel focused on the threat and the need to take back military bases and settlements would have diverted attention from, and pulled resources away from, the north, allowing Hezbollah and others to attack lightly held positions. With that going on, who would have been surprised if the West Bank might not have gone up in flames? Others? Best case, Israel would be destroyed. If not, fighting a multi-front war would have allowed Hamass to fall back with hostages to negotiate from a position of power in the worst case.

However, plans created in bubbles rarely work when dealing with realities outside said bubble. Make no mistake, Hamass (and the mad mullahs) live in a bubble. They have turned Gaza into a multi-generational bed of terrorism and militant islamism that is now well documented and shared around the world. From cradle to grave the people of Gaza are raised to hate Israel, the U.S., and others, and trained to kill. Don’t believe me? Check out this poll and the decent analysis here. The idiotic bleatings in regards a two-state solution won’t work with the mindset within Gaza. Think the poll is off? Check out other polls and previous polls, as the numbers have been extremely consistent for years.

It wasn’t the intention of Iran or Hamass, but what they did accomplish outside the bubble was to wake up a lot of people. Not just to the reality of Hamass and Gaza, but to other things as well. Things like the Second Amendment and the right to self-defense. Things like the rampant antisemitism within progressive/Marxist politics. Things like speech and other actions having consequences. Things that are working to derail a lot of progressive/Marxist efforts here and abroad.

The latter has been a rather rude awakening for many, who performed the progressive virtue signalling (or flat-out psychotic rage) of ripping down the posters of those kidnapped by Hamass, or making antisemitic remarks. They are used to being those protected and cancelling others. They are really not liking it now that it has consequences for them.

Am I worried about the current “pause” and prisoner exchange? Yes. Those trying to hamstring Israel as it rightly (and righteously) works to eliminate Hamass (including the Biden Regency) want either the status quo or for Israel to be destroyed. Period. The status quo is for continuing the terrorism and for Israel not to be secure in its own borders. The ultimate destruction of Israel is a cornerstone of the progressive/Marxist mindset. My take on both is that both are evil.

My hope is that the government of Israel knows what it is doing. Part of me hopes they are placing those prisoners they release for this into a place where they get the chance to die with the rest of Hamass. Otherwise, the pause is just another chance for Hamass to rearm, resupply, and work to have their patrons find a way to try to return to the status quo. For all I don’t think that’s going to happen this time, I also don’t want to see Israel take any more casualties than it has to. I also don’t want Israel to find itself where it can be pressured or pushed by those who wish it ill (and I do include the Biden Regency in that group).

Hamass went full Tet, and the above gives a theory as to why they went full Tet. For now, may they reap the whirlwind and be utterly and completely destroyed.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Two Reads

Sorry not to have been posting more, but life has been keeping me on my toes. Lots I do want to talk about, from the invasions here and in Europe to the full-on assault on the Constitution. Need to get back to posting more regularly on preparedness as well.

But, I do have two good reads to recommend to you this morning. The first is from VodkaPundit on the “failed” Ukrainian counteroffensive. Quick question to ponder as you read: can you remember a single time our military and intelligence leadership, as well as corporate media, have been right in any regard to Ukraine? The second is a book review, said book I now want to read as it takes a different look at slavery in the U.S. and how we may be on a very wrong path in regards our future in space.

Whole big discussion needs to be had on that, and on the idiocy being pushed that colonizing space will be as bad or worse than colonization here on Earth and will destroy the beauty in the skies. There is a reason for the attacks on farmers and on any effort to build a better future. More soon, I do hope.

Stolen F-35?

Sarah A. Hoyt has raised the possibility that the missing F-35 has been “stolen.” Rather, it has been given by corrupt figures in the military and government to China. That the incident and ejection have been faked to cover up that action.

I will state that such is a possibility. I do not, however, see it as a probability at this time. Before I get into some of that, let me preface with a few remarks and conditions. My own ejection training is a decade or two out of date, and was primarily focused on two-seat fighters. I got the training while getting my physiological training certificate at Little Rock. When it comes to ejection systems, I am most familiar with the ACESII system which used to be quite the thing.

Some quick notes. First, ejection is NOT fun as you are subjected to a large number of G’s and potentially some other delights. Common injuries were neck and back, though broken limbs (arms and legs) were not uncommon on some previous systems as if you didn’t have them in the right spot/position, they not only caught force they could also catch parts of the plane as you rapidly left it. Ouch.

Second, another common accident was having the person ejecting forget to transfer their oxygen hose from the main panel to the seat bottle. The little green apple of the seat bottle is your friend. There is a reason that used to be practiced during both physiological and ejection training. If you don’t remember to do that, as you leave the plane the mask is rather violently ripped from your face and helmet, and often did bad things to your neck and sometimes to your face and neck. Failing to switch fell under the category of “Very Bad Thing” as a result.

Third, the activation of an ejection seat usually triggers a beacon to help guide SAR to the downed pilot. This is separate from any Emergency Locator Beacon (ELB) on the plane itself. As an FYI, on civilian planes it is possible to manually activate the ELB, my memory is fuzzy (stupid lightning) on military craft. Seem to recall that it depended on the aircraft. Yes, military craft do tend to have such to aid in recovery (or destruction at need).

Fourth, no matter the system, the canopy goes bye bye in the process. In a normal ejection per my training, a charge blew the canopy back and away so you didn’t end up like Goose in Top Gun. Also, if your seat failed when you pulled the cord, the alternative was to raise the canopy and let the slipstream rip it off. As it did so, a lanyard was yanked and the secondary system (hopefully) would succeed where the primary failed. Today, you have that, canopies that allegedly fragment, and others — like the F-35 — that split in two so you can get safely launched. See here, here, and here for more info on the F-35 system.

The system in the F-35 works at ground level, which is quite an improvement as earlier system really needed you at 200 feet or higher to work properly. There are some other wrinkles that are fascinating including that it can apparently act automatically without pilot input.

BTW, putting the plane on autopilot when departing mid-flight goes back to WWII. You wanted/needed a steady platform as there were no ejection seats, and if the plane wasn’t under control of the auotpilot or a courageous pilot, it tended to do maneuvers that prevented the crew from leaving. Training was (is?) to do everything you can to hold it steady or to have the plane hold things steady. It makes your departure much smoother and helps prevent any number of injuries. It is interesting to note that some aircraft just keep plugging along after the pilot has left, while others tend to go immediately out of control.

UPDATE: See this comment for one such incident in the late 80s.

In this case, the pilot was apparently seen coming down under canopy, more details here. Side note, glad to see AvLeak is still around. Could it have been faked, such as pushing him in a seat out the back of a transport? Sure. But, no such plane appears to have been nearby at the time. Two, if there were, guarantee a number of the Aviation OSINT folk would have been talking about it by now. Expect to see some serious digging by these fine folks soon.

For all it is highly automated, and features MAGIC CARPET and other delights, it’s really not capable of automated landing. It can get darned close I’m told, but not there. FYI, the old MLS (such as on the Shuttle and other craft) never did truly work as advertised I’m told. We are getting closer, but not there yet. So, the idea of programming the plane to keep flying, go full stealth, and land at an undisclosed location without human intervention is rather unlikely.

Which brings us to the other fly in the ointment. From a purely intel/black ops standpoint, using this type of event to steal one is not very likely. In fact, I can think of a couple of dozen reasons not to do it this way. KISS rules, and I’m not talking the band. Doing it this way violates KISS in so many ways I can’t count them all. In short, secrets keep the fewer are involved. When you court the public, flight trackers, a wingman, and a host of others involved, you are NOT keeping it simple in the ways that count.

Frankly, if I were to want to do a public disappearance, it would be one plane, over water. The fewer who know what is going on, the better. Actually, the easiest way to get one and ship it to the enemy would be via paperwork and that is frighteningly easy to do. No fuss, no muss, no real paper trail, and it would only need a very small number of people to make it happen. That’s also about as far as I’m going to go on that too.

Now, I admit I’m more than a little curious why the transponder quit working and why no ELB (yet). In defense of the transponder, having a rocket motor go off right in front of you can be a bit disconcerting. If the plane went down in water, the ELB is going to be problematic to detect if it works.

Right now, I’m leaning towards the plane having remained in auto pilot and it did some form of soft landing, most likely in water. If it had done a soft landing on land, odds are we should have had some sign of it but that is not guaranteed. Until we have more data, all we can do is speculate. Again, I’m leaning towards the F-35 doing a modern version of a WWII ghost plane, but until we have hard data…

UPDATE: I was wrong about water, it did indeed apparently hit on land. Sad thing is, at this point, even if every part matches it won’t really matter.

Missing Pt. 2

Okay, part one was tongue in cheek. But, this is the stuff of legends. Did it crash into a lake? Did it just come down somewhere relatively intact? Did it go down at sea?

If you go back and read about aviation in WWII, you are going to come across a number of documented stories where planes made it back to England — without their crews. One I remember reading about, the crew bailed out as the plane was loosing altitude such that the didn’t think it would clear the coast. So, they all bailed out. This lightened the load such that the plane not only cleared the coast, it did a near perfect belly landing at the field from which it had departed. Freaked the ever living out of the people there when they found no crewmembers inside.

I seem to recall the late, great, Martin Caidin writing about some of these, including an incident he witnessed during a commemoration flight.

A lot of modern planes, however, don’t do well if they lose computer control and such. In fact, a couple of them will just about come apart if they lose such controls at speed. However, if they keep that control and are on a steady path via autopilot, who knows?

So, go back and read up on some of the ghost planes of WWII. It’s fun and it says a lot about how rugged the planes then truly were. Only time will tell if we are about to add a modern tale to the mix.

Missing

Kadyrov, hmmmmmm

I’ve noted for a while now that I considered Kadyrov to be the kingmaker in ongoing Russian politics. Almost fanatically loyal to Vladimir, he has benefited from Vladmir’s largely successful efforts to integrate him into the current Kremlin political structure. That has required a level of ongoing effort by Vladimir, as not everyone is fond of Kadyrov’s past or the fact that even before the “coup” attempt he had 1,000 troops stationed next to the Kremlin for the use by and protection of Vladmir. During the “coup” he was bringing a lot more troops in to protect Moscow, the Kremlin, and Vladimir — and key Russian figures moved none.

If you are not familiar with the relationship between Russia and the Chechens, let’s just describe it as interesting. There’s long been a push for a ‘free Chechen republic’ and a lot of friction (massive understatement) and not just in the last few decades. Add to it that Vladimir cemented his hold on power by blaming the Chechens for the apartment building bombings (done by the FSB) and fomenting a war. Despite all this, things worked out for Kadyrov to become a Vladimir loyalist and a major power player in Kremlin politics. Or, possibly, former major power player.

Keep in mind that I don’t think Vladimir is anywhere near the top of his game anymore. In fact, I continue to see signs of personal and political decline. Pringle’s “coup” seems to be accelerating the latter. Back to this in a minute.

For all the publicity, Pringles was a vassal to a vassal of Vladimir within the power structure, for all intents and purposes. For all he had turned into a billionaire and small-time oligarch, he was not the key player he (and most corporate media) portrayed. For all that he was a staunch supporter of Vladimir, his first love was to himself. To build the empire he wanted, and to enjoy fully the lifestyle he very much enjoyed (the uniformed figure camping with the troops was mostly for show IMO), he advanced by parroting others. He echoed Vladimir extensively. It has also been noted that when Kadyrov spoke, Pringles echoed.

This was particularly true in regards criticism of the MoD and the general (cough) incompetence in regards the war. For all that both wanted to put the blame for issues squarely on the MoD, and not them or their troops, I think that Kadyrov, more than Pringles, was unhappy at excess casualties and other issues. Kadyrov was, however, far better at playing the game than Pringles, and despite some apparent attempts to get Pringles to calm down, Pringles launched his coup while trying to frame it as focused on the MoD and not Vladimir, and perhaps even within certain circles to present it as an effort to protect Vladimir from those who were effectively betraying him.

That didn’t fly, however, and both Vladimir and Kadyrov both condemned the “coup” and labeled Pringles as a backstabbing traitor. Interestingly enough, both have come out faintly praising/praising Pringles and noting that he let his ambitions get the better of him. The faint was, of course, Vladimir. The not-so-faint was Kadyrov. It is the degree of the difference of the praise that may be very interesting.

As an aside, yes, I do believe Pringles is dead. If it were some sort of Hollyweird “WitSec” effort, it would require not only extensive plastic surgery for Pringles and Utkin, but also personality transplants. I don’t think it psychologically possible for either one of them, even with new faces and identities, to simply go live a quiet life somewhere.

Over the years, I’ve met two people in witness protection who exemplify what I’m talking about. In the first case, when I first graduated I worked at a large bookstore, where we had an “interesting” older female customer. Always trying to pull fast ones, total PITA. Turns out, she was doing interesting things at her business, which led to law enforcement investigation(s), which led to the story coming out in the paper that she was in witness protection and they had to know she was scamming people even before they moved her again. The other was an accountant turned restaurant owner who opened an Italian place where I was living at the time. Actually, some of the best Italian I’ve had in the U.S. His fast one involved (possibly among other things) not paying the witholding for his employees. Again, as law enforcement moved in, he was moved out as he really was an accountant who had testified against the mob.

Is there anyone out there who believes Pringles and Utkin could just go off and not do something similar? Coming from the Russian government, the DNA evidence is automatically suspect, but it is out there. That said, lot of circumstantial evidence around that they are indeed dead. While it wasn’t Vladimir’s normal extra-gruesome death for those he feels have personally betrayed him, it was a stark reminder that even if you are surrounded by troops pretty much 24-7 as well as security he can and will get you. That’s a message on more than one level, and with more than one target.

Which ties in to previous discussions on smart moves and why I expected the hit to happen later. Russia was using Wagner to great advantage in Africa, even more so than in the Middle East. I honestly expected to see them use them even more before striking. I think two things may have changed that calculus. First is Niger, where Wagner had extensive involvement. Did Pringles push some things against orders to curry favor and build back power? Interesting questions. There are, of course, rumors of that and other things that would have not sat well with Vladimir or other power players. Second is that Vladimir took some serious internal political hits during and after the coup. He very much needs propping up/shows of strength right now.

The whole “push some things” holds true in many regards to Kadyrov as well. Kadyrov moved troops against the “coup” both in occupied Ukraine and in Moscow. Keep in mind this so-called coup had silent backers in Moscow and beyond, and not just in one or more major players. More than ever I think it had silent partners in several key players and a number of oligarchs outside the regular power structure.

Keep in mind it doesn’t take much of a mispeak to make Vladimir suspicious of you, especially these days. Now, look back over the last year of what Kadyrov has said and compare it to Pringles (including his echoes of Kadyrov). Think it would take much to make an increasingly paranoid Vladimir see Kadyrov as a threat?

There are a lot of people who are not Vladimir supporters who would have good reason to encourage it. Think about those silent backers of the so-called coup. Those who would like to see Vladimir out of power (and/or dead).

Which makes it more than interesting that opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov appears to be warning that going after and/or eliminating Kadyrov would be a mistake (possibly of epic proportions). Doing so in public and in private apparently. Veerrrrry Interesting.

Which brings up another point. I’ve taken some flack in the past for pointing out that we do have an obligation to Ukraine on defense (though we totally reneged on it in 2014), that leaving Russian aggression unchecked is a bad idea, but that our current efforts are neither smart nor sustainable and could lead to escalation. I also remain convinced that any unilateral enforced peace is a bad idea that will only lead to something magnitudes worse within a fairly short period of time. The only way to ensure long-term peace is for the current Russian Federation to come apart (and Russkiy Mir get a wooden stake through it) — which could lead again to very bad things happening if NATO/West/China/Other were to do it. Yes, as previously discussed China has great reason to make this happen. Ability is a different issue, but they do have the interest.

Things could still go sideways with ease if it happens from within. That said, the “coup” brought out a number of fault lines within the Federation. More than one region apparently told Vladimir that he was on his own. Others were a little more creative, but assistance was not guaranteed shall we say.

Now we have a situation where RUMINT says Vladimir is no longer able, or possibly willing, to continue to spend the effort to keep Kadyrov integrated into the power structure. A power structure in which a number of people don’t like or trust Kadyrov or the Chechens. Can Kadyrov hold his own?

What happens if Gudkov and others are right, and either Vladimir or elements of the Kremlin power structure move against Kadyrov? What will the Chechen republic do?

I don’t think it will go the way many appear to be thinking it will. First up, the power structure of the Kremlin was badly off on the whole invasion of Ukraine, as well as on the capabilities of the Russian military. Second, our own top political and military leadership has yet to be right on matters involving the Ukraine. In fact, they’ve been as badly wrong as the Kremlin leadership, if not more so.

Which is why I sincerely hope we don’t go fishing in those troubled waters, as our current leadership couldn’t successfully organize a drinking party in a distillery, and have to have sex lying on their back as they can only fuck up. While it appears China and Iran may both be trying to fish in these waters already, there are internal dynamics at play that I think may backfire on them as well. For now, I’m more inclined to sit back, wait, watch, and hope that despite the odds that our so-called experts will do the same. The issue of the Russian Federation breaking up may well take care of itself for us.

Good Read & More

A good read from the good CDR Salamander. Ties into something I wrote a while back, will try to link it here later. Update: Here it is.

Right now, need to do a bit of exercise, and burn off some frustration. Yet again, someone didn’t do what they were supposed to in regards the insurance paperwork for more PT. Tomorrow’s visit not looking very likely right now.

More soon.

The Death Of Pringles

23 June. 23 August. Kinda hard to miss the message. Whether it was a S-300 enema or something onboard, the top leadership of Wagner and the group responsible for their part of the “coup” are dead. Surovikin has been dismissed and may have been detained. There are some other rumblings that seem to suggest more is going on behind the scenes.

I do find the timing interesting, in that I would have either expected it sooner or around next June. Wagner was/is a key piece of operations in the Middle East and more importantly, Africa. The latter is extremely important to the Kremlin (resources and blocking Western counter-terrorism activities and influence) and many of the relationships with various countries were built on personal interactions and relationships with Utkin and Pringles.

The coup in Niger was not just Russian backed, but was backed and apparently assisted and encouraged by the Wagner Group. How much assistance and guarantees of future assistance were made by the men on the plane? What does their loss mean for the coup and efforts to overturn it?

The pivot of Wagner to Africa and the Middle East after the “coup” made a lot of sense. It put them where they could do the most good and it got them (mostly) out of the war with Ukraine. Which is why I figured any retribution would wait for a year or so, until certain goals were accomplished. Between that and internal Russian politics previously discussed, I thought it would be longer. Which suggests that something has changed in Africa in regards Wagner and Russian influence operations, and/or something has changed the political calculus in Moscow.

Pringles was a member of the “St. Petersburg Mafia” that took over Russia after the fall. Quick aside, if you aren’t familiar with the tension (sometimes warfare) between the Moscow faction/leadership and the St. Petersburg faction/leadership, it really is fascinating and goes back almost to the day of St. Petersburg’s founding. It still exists and is very much in play today. Despite all the media and PR, Pringles was not a senior member of the group and despite his friendship with Vladimir he was as close to being the lowest ranking member as possible. As someone put it on Twitter, he was a vassal to a vassal.

Unless I’m mistaken, he is also the first member of that mafia to experience the tender ministrations of 29155. Again, message. There are several layers to the message, this one being no one is safe. Toe the line, or else.

I’ve gotten the impression that the silent backers of the “coup” are still not all identified, though a lot of people are looking for them for a variety of reasons. I’ve also begun to suspect that some messages from Pringles to Vladimir may not have been passed along. I think he was genuinely surprised when Vladimir took it as an attack on him, rather than an effort to remove those who were misleading and botching the war on Ukraine per Pringles.

If he thought that his friendship with Vladimir, and the Kremlin need for Wagner, would save him and the others, he was mistaken and not paying attention. Once Vladimir feels someone has betrayed him, particularly in public, no amount of new information, apologies, etc. help. You are dead and quite often in ways as creatively nasty as possible.

There are unconfirmed reports that Pringles regular pilot was not onboard and may have been involved. Patsy? Also, it may be that none of the regular crew was onboard. If the crew was essentially a pickup from an FBO, they would be the only ones for which I would feel sorry.

There is more to come, and I expect 29155 to be busy in the days ahead as payback continues. There are some interesting fault lines in both the Russian Federation, and in the political structure around Vladimir, starting to show. The times may be about to get even more interesting for those in the Kremlin.

Another “Accident” Andrei?

This morning brings news of another “industrial accident” in Russia. Via OSINTdefender, comes news of a major explosion at the Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant. From video shot on scene, it appears that artillery shells were either being stored there, or were being made/refurbished there. Read the thread for more details, but a couple of things pop out for me.

I’m catching hints that Soviet-era work habits seem to have made a comeback. Drinking on the job, poor quality, poor process control, and more may have returned along with the attitude “They pretend to pay us, so we pretend to work.” It still sort of floors me how many people still don’t know how bad things were in that regard in the USSR.

Clearly such people never had the dubious joy of a bite of Soviet chocolate, which one could be forgiven for suspecting was really compressed excrement. Or examined a Soviet made product of almost any type. Tolerance? What’s a tolerance? “Identical” parts varied wildly, and the instructions seemed to be that if part A fits into part B, go smaller than dimension to be sure it fits.

It wasn’t just a problem in general industry. It extended to the “elite” programs, like their space and missile program. Parts for “identical” spacecraft weren’t interchangeable because each was essentially a custom build shaped around various issues and QC problems. Don’t take my word for it, Jim Oberg and others were writing about this well before the fall. It’s why Soviet rockets had so many engines: they anticipated up to a third failing, so put enough on there to ensure getting to orbit if two thirds did work. You might also want to check out what happened to their Nova moon rocket. They denied it existed for years, but Charles P. Vick dug it out.

The attitude, and drunk/drugged workers, were responsible directly and indirectly for a lot of accidents. Some minor, many not. The number of “accidents” and fires could suggest a return of an old attitude and untrained workers. Word is that what real craftsmen and precision machinists they had have retired, and no one bothered to train up younger people to replace them. On The Job Training is NOT recommended at any point for the manufacture or refurbishment of artillery shells.

The accidents and fires could also suggest that the Russian government has a problem with sabotage. While some of the fires and accidents could be blamed on Ukraine, we are talking what may be a growing number of incidents across Russia. To me, blaming Ukraine for something that happens in the Russian Far East is a bit of a stretch. It is possible, but I’m not sure how probable it is. I know I’ve talked about this a bit before, but there is discontent and it does seem to be growing, and some may be acting out as it were.

Or, if they were working in any way, shape, or form with Soviet-era shells… Aged explosives and propellants tend to be “touchy” as it were, especially if they weren’t stored properly. Or built properly for that matter. Given that we are not seeing a lot of good storage (how many modern tanks will have to be replaced rather than repaired because of poor storage?), handling such is not a job I would take. Oh, if you are not familiar with Soviet/Russian ammo production and storage issues, look up the Northern Fleet explosion and go from there.

It could be any of the three, but don’t expect the truth to come out of Russian media or government. If they can find a way to pin it on someone non-governmental and safely dead…

Oh, you might also want to spend a few minutes on what this tells us about current usable war stocks, production rates, etc. For there are a number of implications when a plant that is supposed to be producing advanced optics and night-vision devices for the military has an apparently large number of artillery rounds on hand. If optical seeker heads were to be added, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to do that at the factory. Rather, one would suspect the components to be sent to depot centers or the original ammunition factory to be mated with the rounds. If you are developing some form of optical seeker, you don’t use, need, or want live rounds in your R&D or manufacturing areas. Live rounds are a pain and a major safety issue. Oh, and don’t forget what this says about the ability to produce those advanced optics and night vision gear desperately needed, if some portion (or all) of the manufacturing facility was turned over to manufacturing or refurbishing artillery shells. Lots to chew on in this one.

As for some caveats above, a lot of the “accidents” are not getting media coverage, especially inside Russia. People are usually very careful in talking about such on social media, as the Russian government is fairly quick these days to go after defeatists and ~~those telling the truth~~ maligning Russia. It’s only when something is so massive it can’t be hidden, like today, that the news gets out. Makes it hard to track events and honest opinions. That said, it’s much easier today than it was back in the day.

Meantime, lots to think about and it would just break my heart (/sarc) if the Russian ability to deliberately target civilians (or much of anything else to be honest) just took a major hit. If anyone has some solid data on production rates of the plant for optics and night-vision, or the percentage of such they provided the military, sing out. Given Russia has gone back to the “one big factory” concept in a big way…

UPDATE 10AUG23: Started hearing yesterday that there was a fireworks company using a warehouse on site, said company reportedly in bankruptcy. There is also speculation about possible “unofficial” ammo production. It will be interesting to see what comes out officially and unofficially. Also, the extent of damage to the main plant is getting debated, and ranges from severe to cosmetic. Again, it will be interesting to see what comes out.

How To Turn It Around

A few days ago on Twitter, I was asked my thoughts on a new study by Rand entitled: Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence. Here’s my initial thoughts on it and what needs to be done.

Sadly, I don’t think highly of Rand and it’s products, and have not done so for several decades now. Growing up in the 1960s, research and documents from Rand were treated almost as holy writ in the science community. Fact is, they did some good and even amazing work back in the day. Somewhere along the way, however, in my opinion they became just another beltway bandit.

Case in point are the first nine bullet points presented under recommendations which with one exception are meaningless ritual gobbledygook that says you are a serious beltway player who knows the current buzzwords and is prepared to synergize existing resources so as to maximize potential for the advancement of improvement. The only honest part of the nine are those calling for research into multiple new weapons systems that will require lots of expensive studies (like those done by Rand), extensive and expensive R&D, and decades to produce. Yeah, I may have helped write stuff like this before…

Okay, that said, let me back up and take this more in order.

Key Finding One is that warfare has changed since the Cold War. No shit, Sherlock. It’s changed since Desert Storm. I will add that we are insolvent because our current GOFOs are far more interested in focusing on Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity (DIE) than in teaching our troops to fight and win, which is indeed going to cause them to DIE.

Key Finding Two is that our superiority in training, tech, people, etc. is gone. I agree, and it was squandered by feckless leadership and politicians. A good bit of that was/is intentional I think.

Key Finding Three is that we don’t need superiority to defeat peers and near-peers. In the words of Col. Sherman Potter, horsehocky! Yeah, trying to be polite and keep it more PG-13 than the XXX response this topic usually elicits.

Key Finding Four is that it has opened the eyes of NATO members. Snort. Chortle. Braying Laugh. The newer members of NATO have been meeting and even exceeding for a while, even as they have tried to point out the danger while being poo-poohed by the older members in the status quo lounge. Those members, such as Germany, still don’t get the danger that exists, being as they are more focused on the danger to their pockets and all the freebies they offer their people. I might point out that this has also been pointed out for a couple of decades by members of the milblog community and pointedly by the previous administration.

Key Finding Five is that the U.S. and Taiwan have differing ideas on how they should defend themselves, with a hefty slice of implication that Taiwan is wrong.

Now, to go back to Recommendations, with the remaining points being a rendition of buzzword bingo. Encourage meeting commitments, increase stocks, points deducted for saying NATO has an eastern flank (it doesn’t, it has an eastern front…), and the rest is pretty much blather. The points I mention are good, but are couched with caveats that appear to negate them. It is the typical beltway dance, so as not to alarm anyone overseas that we might really mean it this time on commitments or the need for them to increase stocks. This appears to be a solid entry in the status quo club library with some appropriate (condescending) nods to the newer members of NATO.

Now, before I go into my take on some issues, go read the good Commander who makes some hard and valid points. As I’ve pointed out before, all stocks are low to the point of criminally low. Bean-counters made the call, the stocks were reduced, the lines are gone in some cases, and when it comes to D+7, we are going to be Winchester on a lot more than 155. I will leave it to Sal to talk about the horrible state of maintenance in the Navy, and will note that the Air Force has issues of its own.

I will also note that there is a huge problem with retention, not just recruitment. If you can get them, take a look at the number of people coming out early on medical and related. Add in those choosing not to re-up, and we are losing a huge amount of institutional experience at key levels. There is only so much abuse and command toxicity that people are going to take. They are voting with their feet.

Now, I can turn the following into a proper beltway insomnia cure easily enough for the right cash under the table. Meantime, allow me to present a hopefully more entertaining and colorful version with solid proposal underneath. You really want to turn things around?

First: Change of Leadership. No meaningful changes are possible under the current administration or current probable successors within the same party. The attack on warfighters and warfighting capability begun in the Obama administration is a key component of the intentions and operations of current political leadership.

Should circumstances change such that all parties are forced to accept the need for change and the resurrection of an effective and efficient military that wants to and can win engagements and wars, I would argue for a blanket purge of all current GOFOs save any who have spoken out in public against current trends, practices and theories including DIE (and are vouched for by middle-rank enlisted as having kept focus on mission and people). We really do need a clean sweep.

This should be followed by an elimination of TRADOC as it currently exists, and related organizations in other services. Since Vladimir is not likely to nuke Eustis as he wants to hurt us, if I were made ruler of the world even briefly, I would drop my own nuke in the form of enticing Col. Kratman back into service for the sole purpose of eliminating the current system, salting the Earth, and building a new system focused on mission, men, and winning. That truly is the key and it is not what we are currently doing in any service though the Marines seem to be doing better than most.

Finally, we need to stop the war on warfighters in the military. We desperately need to nurture any we find in any service, and even look to see if there is any way to entice proven wartime leadership to return to service.

Second: Procurement. We urgently need realistic warstocks. What a lot of people don’t get is that yes we are ramping up to app. 90,000 rounds of 155 a month. We need to get back to the days where we were producing more than 500,000 rounds a month. And, it’s not just 155. As Sal has pointed out, as I’ve pointed out before, there are a LOT of items where we don’t have the stockpiles and there is no way to rapidly procure more.

Restoring the industrial capacity needed is going to take time we really don’t have. Which means we need to really push to get things going now. If we wait until the ball drops…

We also need to gut and restructure procurement and R&D. Why? Take a look at any of the weapons development efforts by the Army in the last 10 years. Design by committee doesn’t work, and I honestly am not sure whether graft or incompetent micromanagement is the biggest danger to a weapons program. Think I’m joking? We’ve needed a new rifle for a while, where is it? Examine the efforts to develop such, and weep.

Drones, guns, whatever: open things up to a broader array of companies, run X-Prize operations, and find some way to stomp on the Not Invented Here (NIH) mentality that permeates military procurement. DoD is worse about COTS (unless it’s from the inner core of the usual suspects who know how to express gratitude) than NASA used to be about commercial products and operations, and that’s going some. Procurement badly needs to learn the lesson that perfect is the enemy of good enough, and that we don’t have decades to get things done. In fact, in some cases, I would say we have days instead of decades.

While I don’t mean to step on Sal’s or any of the naval bloggers toes, I will share something I saw somewhere on social media: naval leadership needs to look at real ships and readiness in 2025 instead of focusing on paper fleets for 2045. I would argue that the core principle applies to all services right now.

There is more, of course, but these are the two most critical parts of turning around the decline of our military.

On the subject of NATO, there is much that can be said and that needs to be discussed, from expansion to purpose. That said, we need to quit playing around in regards commitments. Given that I’ve discussed Germany (in particular) and others not meeting minimums before, I think we are at a point of fish or cut bait. There isn’t five to ten years for you to comfortably ramp up to the minimum you are obligated to do. You’re going to be lucky to get three. Figure it out, because the days of the U.S. being able to cover everything are done.

Taiwan is a subject for another day. I will simply say that to state or imply that the U.S. ideas on how the defense should be implemented are right and Taiwan’s is wrong is the height of hubris and incompetence. Given that our current leadership is incapable of organizing a drinking party in a distillery, we might should consider asking why they are doing certain things, study the details, and then make suggestions. I’ve already read a number of interesting reports and good suggestions from other milbloggers, so let’s not get too focused on the “experts” who haven’t been right on anything in years.