FM had a good comment on my previous Gaza post, and my reply forms a good bit of today’s post. The question has been what the everliving did Iran and Hamass think they were doing with Tet II, especially with the recordings and broadcasts of the rapes, torture, and murders?
There are two things to consider on that. First, they didn’t consider the audience. Rather, for cultural reasons, it never even occurred to them that most sane people would react in horror. They had no concept of any audience other than radical Islamists like themselves. To them, the videos would be a message of power for Hamass and a message of terror for Israel. The sight of what was done would drive Israeli’s away from the land, turning it into a ghost land they could then take over. They also counted on their allies and other useful idiots to run cover for them in the media and on the world stage. The allies and idiots are trying, but as Sarah notes, it’s not really sticking.
Second, they didn’t stick to plan. This may seem a little out there, but it does make sense. Thanks to Evergreen Intel, I found this article in The Times of Israel that puts forth the idea that the original plan had been to push towards Tel Aviv but the music festival surprised and distracted them. Instead of pushing on to pose a threat, both the initial assault and the follow-on wave of “civilians” got pulled into the easy rape and killing of those at the festival. This eliminated the ability to pose a threat that would have focused military and political leadership on Hamass and Gaza.
Why do that? Maybe because an Israel focused on the threat and the need to take back military bases and settlements would have diverted attention from, and pulled resources away from, the north, allowing Hezbollah and others to attack lightly held positions. With that going on, who would have been surprised if the West Bank might not have gone up in flames? Others? Best case, Israel would be destroyed. If not, fighting a multi-front war would have allowed Hamass to fall back with hostages to negotiate from a position of power in the worst case.
However, plans created in bubbles rarely work when dealing with realities outside said bubble. Make no mistake, Hamass (and the mad mullahs) live in a bubble. They have turned Gaza into a multi-generational bed of terrorism and militant islamism that is now well documented and shared around the world. From cradle to grave the people of Gaza are raised to hate Israel, the U.S., and others, and trained to kill. Don’t believe me? Check out this poll and the decent analysis here. The idiotic bleatings in regards a two-state solution won’t work with the mindset within Gaza. Think the poll is off? Check out other polls and previous polls, as the numbers have been extremely consistent for years.
It wasn’t the intention of Iran or Hamass, but what they did accomplish outside the bubble was to wake up a lot of people. Not just to the reality of Hamass and Gaza, but to other things as well. Things like the Second Amendment and the right to self-defense. Things like the rampant antisemitism within progressive/Marxist politics. Things like speech and other actions having consequences. Things that are working to derail a lot of progressive/Marxist efforts here and abroad.
The latter has been a rather rude awakening for many, who performed the progressive virtue signalling (or flat-out psychotic rage) of ripping down the posters of those kidnapped by Hamass, or making antisemitic remarks. They are used to being those protected and cancelling others. They are really not liking it now that it has consequences for them.
Am I worried about the current “pause” and prisoner exchange? Yes. Those trying to hamstring Israel as it rightly (and righteously) works to eliminate Hamass (including the Biden Regency) want either the status quo or for Israel to be destroyed. Period. The status quo is for continuing the terrorism and for Israel not to be secure in its own borders. The ultimate destruction of Israel is a cornerstone of the progressive/Marxist mindset. My take on both is that both are evil.
My hope is that the government of Israel knows what it is doing. Part of me hopes they are placing those prisoners they release for this into a place where they get the chance to die with the rest of Hamass. Otherwise, the pause is just another chance for Hamass to rearm, resupply, and work to have their patrons find a way to try to return to the status quo. For all I don’t think that’s going to happen this time, I also don’t want to see Israel take any more casualties than it has to. I also don’t want Israel to find itself where it can be pressured or pushed by those who wish it ill (and I do include the Biden Regency in that group).
Hamass went full Tet, and the above gives a theory as to why they went full Tet. For now, may they reap the whirlwind and be utterly and completely destroyed.
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