Military – Page 2 – The Laughing Wolf

Iran Underway

Not a surprise. The embassy evacuations yesterday, that had to be done by the evening local time, were a sign. It may be hours or even a day or two before a lot of reports can be confirmed, but there are some things that are clear even now.

First, clearly a decapitation/regime change strike. The U.S. seems to be focused on infrastructure and some logistics, while Israel is taking out the rest. No surprise, and a good use of resources as (and I’ve noted this before) Israel has an almost frightening degree of penetration within Iran. When you can plant bombs in light fixtures months or longer in advance, set up robotic machine gun arrays, and more, you do indeed own your target.

That seems to be getting put to very good use in this attack. One of the firmer rumors out there is that the attack commenced once the senior leadership of the mad mullah regime were gathered together for a meeting. Much like the start of the 12-day war. Except, this time, it wasn’t military and nuclear leadership, it was the full top leadership including the ayatollah his own self. Seems that once that was confirmed, boomity.

Despite that, I’m taking reports of various eliminations with a grain of salt simply because one should. An operational rule for such things is never accept the initial reports, and even with some confirmation plan and continue as if the strike failed. If nothing else, you take out the secondaries and even tertiaries along with leadership that could fill any vacuum. Fact is, pretty much the entire membership of the IRGC will have to be taken out for any regime change to succeed. For those on X and wanting to keep up with the latest, here is a link to my Intel list.

I am wondering if, once again, Israel has blown open the doors to Evin prison. I certainly hope so. Both the U.S. and Israel have sent the message to the Iranian people that it is up to them. The Pahlavi team has as well. Video coming out of Iran has shown people literally dancing in the street in celebration. All good signs, but I also hope to see some concrete actions starting soon once the initial strikes are over. That will tell the tale.

It should also be noted that Iran has probably sealed its fate no matter what. By attacking all its neighbors with a strike, it turned neutrals and potential neutrals into enemies. Worst miscalculation: Saudi Arabia. The attack on them broke cultural and other norms, and has brought the Saudis into a full state of war against Iran. If things don’t move fast enough inside Iran, don’t be surprised if the neighbors don’t act. Side thought, this is also going to do more to strengthen the Abraham Accords than almost anything else could have done.

There is also a lot of truth to the discussions that October 7th was the worst military blunder in history. Most are putting the blame on Hamass, but the operation was approved and encouraged by Iran. It was a gamble, and if Hezballess had joined in as apparently planned, it could have put Israel on ropes. Or worse even. Instead, for a day of horrific rape and murder, Hamass, Hezballess, and other Iranian proxies are a shadow of their former selves militarily (sadly, politically still viable thanks to enablers and supporters among the progressives in the West). Now, the head of the serpent may well have been cut off. If Iran does get freedom, expect to see a number of open and covert proxies develop problems.

Along that line, if you have not read Kurt Schlichter’s book The Attack do so quickly. Today is not a day for sandstone, but a time to go red and put your head on a swivel. Of the millions who came over the border under Biden (and even before), a number of IRGC members or operatives are believed to have been among them. They might not be happy at regime change, and they may have received orders (or had standing orders) in that regard. Be prepared.

Not going to say much, but while I suspect some of that threat has been neutralized, I wouldn’t bet on it. I’ve seen it apparently happen once before, many years ago, but one should never count on a repeat. Be prepared.

More soon. I truly hope the people of Iran take this opportunity to reclaim their country. I hope they make good choices and decisions, and embrace freedom. The world will be much better off if they do so. That said, it is up to them. This is their moment, pray they rise up to it.

Meantime, keep your eye on Pakistan-Afghanistan. This in many ways has the potential to be more serious and have even larger consequences on the world than Iran. Right now, about every jihadist group in the world is siding with the Taliban. This includes certain families and groups such as the Haqqani. On the positive side, Pakistan has the chance to do the world a huge favor if it eliminates those groups/networks/etc. They have already taken out a Taliban general it seems.

The downside to this conflict is the tribal nature of the region. If enough tribes/families turn, there is a potential for Pakistan to either fall, or fall into internal turmoil that is not good in a nuclear nation. The last thing anyone should want is nuclear weapons or materials falling into the hands of the jihadis.

It is not a simple situation with simplistic solutions or ideals. Approaching it as simplistic is a potential invitation to disaster. If anyone tells you it is simplistic and X must be done, especially a politician, shun them and their proposal. It is easy to say ‘we should support Pakistan’ but you also need to recognize that tribal loyalties matter more — even within the Pakistani government — than most in the West can grasp. Personally, I hope Pakistan ends up eliminating a number of threats to the West and the world. However, my support is selective as I don’t want to see certain factions (tribes) gain sway on the ground or in the government. For all that Iran can still hurt us, having nukes in the wrong hands could be much, much worse.

Right now, all we can do is wait and watch. I expect the mad mullahs and their ilk to try their best to take everyone down with them. Keep in mind, they want such as a means to get the hidden imam to return. Also, they are just that type of people and they will do everything they can to get as many civilians and others killed. They are also going to double down on lies and more, and are likely to try to get as many proxies or remote teams to take action as possible.

Which means the next few weeks are going to be a time to be on watch and be prepared. It is always good to use and exercise your rights, but the next few weeks will be a crystal clear time to do so. Be prepared to walk fast at need, and to maintain situational awareness. Be Prepared.

One more thing: you are going to hear a lot of politicians and other supporters of the Iranian government screaming about the attack being illegal. It’s not. The courts have ruled on this even. Generally, the President can act unilaterally though he should brief Congress within 48 hours, and Congress has to approve if action goes for more than 60 days. Please don’t fall for the lies.

More later perhaps. Still recovering from yesterday morning, so likely taking as much of the day off as possible.

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The Special Relationship Should

Be considered dead. In some of my previous posts regarding England and Europe (start with the latest and follow the links) I’ve suggested caution and the need to rethink things. Yesterday’s news that Starmer has refused use of bases in the UK and Diego Garcia for any attack on Iran really brings the need for a formal re-evaluation.

After thinking on it overnight I’m not convinced it is dead and beyond resuscitation; but, prudence demands that we treat it as such and start developing plans, policies, and procedures for operations without the special relationship. From intelligence sharing to basing, rethink everything.

Sure, Labor can lose but are any of the other classic parties any better? I’m also of the opinion that Nigel and Reform are not serious, and possibly even a Trojan horse given some recent revelations. Lowe and Restore, if they survive literally and figuratively, might be the change that could save the U.K. That said, every other party and a huge part of the bureaucracy (including intel and law enforcement) are going to be gunning for them, possibly even literally. If they are taken off the board, I would put my money on the U.K. becoming a caliphate within the next ten years. So, I’m rooting for Rupert for now.

Meantime, we need to consider the U.K. lost even as the politicians pay lip service and act as if all is okay. That means we need, now, to be cutting back on what we share and how; what we accept, how, and why (keep in mind Brit Intel was a huge part of the Russia scam that crippled Trump 1.0); and, as I said before, how to secure the nukes when the fall comes.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It’s all we can do, and it is always good advice.

No, It’s What ‘Can You Do’…

Good post up at The Conservative Woman in regards British weakness, feckless leadership, etc. in the face of Iranian advances that will put London within reach of conventional- and nuclear-armed missiles quite soon unless something is done (see here). The question is raised there ‘what do we do’ in regards that, when the real question is ‘what can you do?’

Short-term, the answer is not much at all. You have a leadership class — of which Starmer is a figurehead, a meat-puppet — that hates Great Britain, the Empire, etc. and is determined to end it. The Chagos treaty is just the latest in efforts to divest the last vestiges of the empire, with Hong Kong being the zenith of same. They have gutted the military and done everything they can to make England to be easy pickings. If you are just starting to wonder why, you may be too late to the game.

I need to do a full answer to the post in question, especially as I notice what I regard as some rather gross inaccuracies. For example, in talking about the Strategic Defense Initiative (calling it ‘Star Wars’ reveals much about the author IMO) using nukes to ensure kills in boost stage. While I need to tread carefully, I think I can safely say that I don’t know of any serious effort to use nukes.

Nevermind that having them in orbit is a violation of treaty (ho hum, yet another treaty violation), but even worst is how many would be needed against widely dispersed targets. Also, nevermind that it is amazingly easy to mess up a rocket booster of any type, and the same can be said of many nuclear weapons themselves. I would suggest learning about “Brilliant Pebbles” (and for something older, look at Pournelle’s ‘Project Thor’ aka orbital crowbars) as well as the close-in defense systems (that we used to have) for protecting our land-based missiles.

For all that I have some issues (technical, strategic, otherwise) with some of the framing and background, there are a number of good questions and thoughts raised in the article. Check it out and sound off, there or here.

Iran Thoughts

Iran has been a powder keg for a while now, and I’m truly surprised efforts to end the rule of the mad mullahs didn’t kick off a year or so ago. So I was unsurprised when things did start to blow up and an effort begun to bring back a return of the Shah. Sadly, I now think that may fail and do so because the President did not keep his word. This has implications far beyond Iran as well.

First, let me state yet again that I do not believe we should put boots on the ground. While it would be great to get rid of the mullahs, it is something that has to come from inside, and there are hundreds of thousands who have taken to the street — and tens of thousands who have died. Our support of that needs to be logistical and via eliminating certain infrastructure, preventing troop movements, and related.

Someone is already doing that, on a limited scale, and I have an idea who is doing it. That said, more is needed and we can do such via airpower. Some very good thoughts are over at The Lawdog Files here, here, and here. Think I linked to them before, but doing so again as they are good reads. But, again, and again, and again: freedom can’t be brought in or imposed from the outside via boots on the ground, it has to come from the inside.

Thing is, President Trump told the Iranian public that he had their back, to take to the streets and if the regime tried or started to kill them, he would strike. That was weeks ago and as I said before, the deaths appear now to be in the tens of thousands. Machine guns and more are being used; militia from Iraq have been brought in to help control certain regions; and, Arabic troops/mercs have also been brought in. The revolution is now in danger of failing, at least in my opinion.

Something to consider is this: at the start, when Trump first called for them to take to the streets, America was in a good position both to help and to have a very good relationship with the Shah and others in the new government. Now, we do not and will not enjoy such as the people are remembering that America’s word really isn’t worth much in the Middle East. As the blood flows thicker and deeper, the willingness to trust and work with the U.S. is dropping. If the revolution does succeed without the promised American help, the relationship with the U.S. is going to be rather cool — and there will be plenty of countries helping push that.

Worse, right now the mullahs feel emboldened because Trump/the U.S. hasn’t kept it’s word. They see the desire to negotiate as weakness. If the revolution fails and all they see are games being played with drone tracks, they are going to take that as a go signal to speed up efforts to restore nuclear development and go nuclear, as well as to go all in on terrorism by proxy. The downsides are severe, and the damage to the reputation of both Trump and the U.S. can’t be overstated. It will likely end effective foreign policy for this administration.

I have suspicions as to what has been going on, and I truly hope that Qatar does not have its hooks into certain members of the administration. Sadly, there is a lot of damage done right now regardless of the source. A promise was made, a red line set, and nothing done when the mullahs gleefully crossed it. There is still time, but a lot of damage has been done and it will take more than words to undo it.

What is happening is an unforced error on the part of the administration. One that has serious implications for stability and peace in several parts of the world. If the mullahs fall, it changes the calculus on Russia/Ukraine, it cuts a number of nasty terrorist groups off from major funding and operational assistant (and remember some of them were operating out of Venezuela), and it ends one of the most serious nuclear threats out there. If they don’t fall, and we don’t act, all of that gets put on steroids and we will be lucky if it only redoubles.

Not words I thought I would be writing when this started, but words that need to be said. I think Trump is getting some very bad advice and I have questions about the intel he is getting on operations and the numbers of Iranians killed by the mullahs. It would have been far better if he had kept his mouth shut and not made a promise he wasn’t going to keep. There is still time to turn things around, but it is fast running out.

DCA Almost Final

My apologies for not writing more (and sooner) but I will just say (again?) that the theology course I’m taking is like drinking out of a fire hose. While it will be a few weeks yet before the final report is out on the DCA crash, the items that are going into the report are now released.

I’m going to start with the Safety Data report, which frankly is damning to the FAA and now-former tower management. Short version is that DCA has had problems for years, including the perception that reporting issues would lead to retaliation. There are multiple recommendations in the report for the FAA, and a few for the Army, as leadership at both agencies (and the DoT) was abysmal.

The human performance report is a good overview of the human operations and interactions with onboard technology that is supposed to help prevent collisions. If you want to understand what was happening in each place, the information available, factors that limited the use of technology and prevented adequate warnings, and more, this is it.

The report notes early something I had “seen” early on: the call-out of the CRJ operated by PSA (Piedmont) for American Airlines lacked critical information. There were several planes in the area called out by the controller, and there was no way for the helicopter crew to know which one was being pointed out. There is evidence that they mistook another aircraft for the one they were supposed to be watching. I may not have many hours as a pilot, but every time I had other traffic called out it always specific, as in “you have X aircraft at your Y o’clock high/low/same (altitude). SOP was to locate, then call back and read-back “I have X aircraft in sight at Y o’clock high/low/same” to verify the information.

As a side note, so long as the object was moving relative to you, life was good. It was when things were a dot that you needed to act as the lack of movement meant it was coming straight at you. Therefore you dove or climbed and/or changed course as well. Doesn’t matter if it was a bird (birds can take out a plane and/or pilot) or a plane — by the time it starts to get visually larger it usually is too late to avoid.

There is a lot more in that particular report, and it is well worth reading carefully. As I said earlier, the only people who come out of this pretty much in the clear are the Piedmont crew who were never warned about the helicopter.

Here is the helicopter operations report, and the medical report. On the latter, the controllers on duty that night should have recourse against management for failing to do the proper drug and alcohol tests. While there is no evidence of such, the failure to follow SOP unfairly puts a cloud over them as they have no way to prove they weren’t impaired. On the former, it is worth reading and re-reading. There are a number of issues with Army aviation leadership and operations that need to be addressed. One of which is that a number of the helicopters in the unit involved had altimeters that were/are not giving correct altitude. There’s more, but the altimeter issue is an ongoing major issue that needs to be addressed.

The airplane systems group report is a good primer on ADS-B and collision avoidance — and the limits of technology. This is a good read and I suspect a number of changes may come out of it.

Now, keep in mind that the area around DCA is some of the most congested in the United States. Fact is, there have been a number of efforts to shut down Reagan because of volume, runway length, location, and other issues. Congress has not only prevented closure, but expanded normal operating hours over the expert advice given it simply because it is convenient for them. And make no doubt it is highly convenient. I’ve flown in and out of there more times than I can count because it is right there at the Pentagon, close to downtown DC, etc.

Also keep in mind that there is a lot of military traffic in the area. There have been efforts made to limit military traffic, primarily helicopters, from the area around DCA because of the congestion and safety issues. Those were ignored/overridden on the basis of national security (and convenience as well).

In an ideal world, the helicopter should have been to one side and gone behind the Piedmont CRJ at a safe distance. It should not have been coming up under it as it was landing.

The NTSB has already heavily hinted/indicated that a majority of the blame for the accident resides with the FAA, and I think they are correct. The lack of leadership, poor management (at all levels including the DoT) failed to address a number of issues, technical and human. I would put among them the long-standing failure to upgrade critical systems, a push for DEI over competence in hiring, and other efforts that inhibited recruitment. When you look at all the problems, the FAA failed at every level.

But, there is plenty of blame to go around. I suspect the controllers are going to take a few hits even with staffing/overwork as mitigating factors; and, the instructor pilot in the helicopter is probably going to take a hit or two despite the fact that without an accurate altitude neither he nor the instructee had no way of knowing they were not at the right altitude. Those of you who know aviation also already know that even if the instructee did make one or more mistakes, the failure to correct them (in time) lies with the IP.

As for all the wild speculation that the instructee kamakazied the Piedmont CRJ; that she failed to obey the commands of the IP; that she wasn’t competent as a pilot and shouldn’t have been flying; and all the other junk: the cockpit recorders and radio transmissions (nor her official background) in no way support those claims. In fact, if you look at the voice recordings, it sounds like a fairly typical learning flight. The IP issued guidance as needed, encouraged the instructee, and seemed to have no major issues with the instructee. Yes, the instructee was green in many respects, but that’s sorta the point of doing training flights. And again and again, without accurate altimeter readings in such a congested area bad things are going to happen.

From the reports, along with photos and diagrams released by the NTSB, it is quite possible that the helicopter and the CRJ may not have seen each other until the last second (if at all). The only people who seem to have done everything right and by the book are the crew of the CRJ. When finally did get warning, they did their best to avoid the crash. It is in no way their fault that they were not able to do so.

So, again, I suspect that the FAA is going to get the lion’s share of the blame (deservedly) for failures of leadership and gross incompetence; whether they get called out or not, DoT should catch some of that too; Army Aviation as a whole, along with senior leadership above them, bear a good bit of blame as well; the controllers on duty will be called out; and, it is likely that the IP will take a hit as well. Not named, though they should be, will be Congress who not only continued operations at DCA but expanded them against all informed advice.

Right now, one of my hopes is that the efforts begun in the wake of the crash to finally modernize the FAA systems using Commercial Off The Shelf technology (COTS) are indeed still underway. Elon and some of the DOGE team were providing advice and assistance and I hope his leaving government did not hamper those efforts (which a lot of entrenched interests in DC are opposed to since COTS doesn’t allow for as much graft and power). I also heard that recruiting efforts for controllers and other critical positions had DEI and other hobbles removed and there were a number of people looking to enter the field. Again, I hope that is continuing as it was and is desperately needed.

I agree with the NTSB assessment that this was one hundred percent avoidable. Had FAA management addressed issues and concerns instead of retaliating against those pointing out problems, this would never have happened. If Army aviation and other entrenched interests had not kept the helicopter route open despite strong advice not to, and if they had properly functioning aircraft, this would not have happened. If Congress hadn’t kept DCA open and expanded operations, this would not have happened. I could go on, but what happened is far more the result of an absolute failure of multiple leadership on multiple levels than anything else.

One of the other things I hope does come out of this is improved collision avoidance systems. We need what we have to work, and part of that lies with setting minimums and standards for lower altitudes. We need newer systems that can and will integrate and operate as noted in the report(s). We also need to be sure military and civilian systems will interoperate, especially in areas such as DC and DCA where there is heavy traffic in close proximity. Again the reports make some good points on that.

I hope some good can come out of this tragedy. I also hope that the final report, along with these reports and previous releases, will put to rest the unfounded and reprehensible speculations of a deliberate crash and/or an out-of-control helicopter trainee.

A New Free Europe

I had really intended to write about the dangers of the civil war certain progressive elements are pushing (as I mentioned here yesterday; and I think Sarah is both very wrong and somewhat right here and Tom Knighton hits many of the points I want to raise), a chance exchange on X this morning with The Diplomad has pushed me to expand on some previous work.

If you are one of those who doesn’t remember the Blogosphere of old, and did not read The Diplomad, you truly missed out. He is posting far more on X these days than on his blog, but I have always found his work to be insightful, well-reasoned, and a pleasure to read. He is one of those wonderful people that even when you don’t agree with him, you are moved to think and consider all he has to say. Oh, and you also really should read of some of his adventures in interesting places working for State.

This morning, he was kind enough to make a one-word comment in response to a comment I had made to a post of his. This has led to an exchange where it turns out we are on the same page as to the need for a bulwark in Eastern Europe to contain a fallen Europe and to defend against other incursions along the old Muslim invasion routes.

I’ve talked a bit about this before (here for a start, several linked posts within for those interested). If I were one of those well-dressed apparatchiks in DC, I would already have a catchy name with logo and full marketing for this concept. Seems that is what sells and gets things considered in DC; but, I’ve been thinking a good bit more on issues of substance instead of marketing. Right now, I want to lay out my current thoughts in the hope that I might entice The Diplomad into sharing some of his.

Background: England has already fallen and even if every Labor/Torrie is voted out today I fear it is too late to save. I’ve written about this in previous posts, and see no way England as we used to know it survives given demographics. Even if they do mass deportations, it will get bloody and what comes out will not the be England we knew, but something else. France is in much the same boat with many of the same political calculations on the part of ruling politicians. Germany has committed economic and demographic suicide and is fighting being given the political equivalent of narcan by its citizens. Switzerland is iffy, though I have not discussed it before. I am worried about Spain, but would invite The Diplomad’s thoughts as he is the expert there. Italy could still save itself but is hamstrung by local bureaucracies and the EU. The Netherlands could hold out for a bit, but demographics alone will see it swamped fairly quickly. Belgium is pretty much lost already. I could go on, but that covers major and some minor players. For one take on the Muslim conquest of Europe, check out Tom Kratman’s book Caliphate. No, I don’t get anything if you buy the book, other than satisfaction. I can see something like this within the next 20 years.

Background II: Per previous posts, NATO is committing suicide at the behest of the EU bureaucracy, which is primarily the WEF progressive crowd. There is already strong sentiment within the U.S., including within defense circles, to withdraw from NATO. I support this, which may or may not bias my analysis to some degree. NATO was valid and necessary for many years; however, it has outlived its usefulness and has become a strategic and economic liability to the U.S. Given that the EU is twisting things to engage treaty obligations against our own interest (and that of the EU members IMO), we need to look at our participation.

Background III: For all this came out of a discussion of a “New NATO” what I am proposing should not be a military alliance. Rather, it should be an economic and civilizational alliance that focuses on unleashing the intellectual, technical/scientific, and skills-based resources within a framework of Classical Western thought and processes with a focus on individual liberty. Much like the U.S. was originally founded. Within that, there should be a component to help the member countries to develop and field the ability to defend themselves against any incursions from West or East.

Personally, I see Poland as the linchpin for this effort. I admit, I have a soft spot for them given their role in ending the godless authority that was the USSR, as well as other anti-communist efforts. They have had the political resolve to stand up to the EU bureaucrats, which speaks highly of them. Geographically, they are in a unique position: it can either be a highway for invasions or a block against same. It has been both at different times in the past. Ports on the Baltic allow some Sea Lines Of Communication (SLOC), which is essential for trade. Yes, those can be compromised (see Larry Bond’s book Cauldron for a fairly thorough analysis of such, and no I don’t get anything if you buy it) but real trade depends on shipping, and they do have the ports needed. It has produced numerous scientists, engineers, composers, and more over the centuries. It also has a fair bit of resources.

To go back to the ports for a moment, those also have another use in this context. We really don’t want England and France’s nukes falling into the hands of a new Caliphate. I hope (possibly against hope) that we have already drawn up plans and are working to plant the seeds that when things go fully south in England that we can get their nukes out. Part of this should be encouraging truly loyal members of the RN to either bring them to us (not likely currently) or to a fairly neutral third party. Poland and it’s ports fit that bill. Same holds true for France. Air bases in Poland could accept flights carrying weapons to safety. As for people flying to safety, I would recommend extreme vetting and not allowing any such refuges citizenship or voting status for about three generations. Finally, when I proposed that if any member of this new alliance needed to be made nuclear to deal with nuclear threats, I recommended Poland in part because that is not something they want or desire. If you don’t get why that is important, think on it a bit and look at those countries openly seeking nukes as you do so.

In the center there is Hungary. A beautiful country with a rich heritage that has also stood up to the EU bureaucrats as well as to past Muslim invasions. While it does not have seaports, it does have extensive river ports and operations that link it with several of its neighbors. River traffic is still a much larger component of trade than many still realize. There have been some criticisms raised in regards their relationship with Russia; but, I think some of those are misplaced and most else can be dealt with in the course of creating the alliance.

Next is Romania. It has seaports, river ports, rich resources and a lot of good people. It’s navy may be small by some standards, but those within it are proud and professional. If it can remain free (and keep in mind the EU vacated their elections when they didn’t like the results) they have everything they need to become a powerhouse, possibly even on the world stage. They have not resisted the EU bureaucracy as well as Poland or Hungary, but have blocked a number of things. Creating an alliance of which they are a part could give them what they need to take themselves where they want to go.

Next is Bulgaria. Mountainous enough to prevent extensive river traffic (and many north-south rail lines), but it also has ports on the Black Sea. It sits astride many of the invasion routes used by Muslim armies in the past, which has kept it from the development experienced by more peaceful lands. Again, a lot of potential here that could be developed by the Bulgarians if they were part of such an alliance. More on that later perhaps.

Now, to the west of Romania and Bulgaria are Serbia and the Balkans. These too are potential candidates for such an alliance, I would note that bringing them in not only provides strategic depth, but additional SLOC options for trade and defense. If Italy doesn’t fall, it would allow the Adriatic to be a secure trade zone both between alliance members and potential overseas partners and customers.

Going back to Larry Bond’s novel Cauldron and to Kratman’s Caliphate, it would be nice if Spain could hold as it would make the Straights of Gibraltar less of a choke point for international trade. I would also note that if Denmark were smart, it would make any trade or sale of Greenland contingent upon support to resist a European Caliphate. For all that Denmark has shown some awareness of the problem, they have not taken it seriously nor posed any real resistance to the EU bureaucrats. If Denmark falls, the Skagerrak is at best “iffy” for trade; and, if Sweden falls it will close it to effective traffic.

Frankly, I see Sweden as 50/50 on whether it falls or not. The politicians and public seem to want to deal with the migration issues; but, the super-woke bureaucracy is dug into the body politic like a disease-laden tick. Digging that out and making real change will take more than many are willing to give I think. That said, it could be yet another reason to try to get them into such an alliance.

I would also consider the Baltic states as potential members, though they are a good part of the reason I think this should not be a military alliance. Members can make self-defense treaties between themselves, but should not be able to make treaties that obligate others. The purpose behind the alliance is to promote economic growth, which will allow them to defend themselves as they see fit. Pushing economic and individual liberty is a key part of this, as such always results in growth at many levels.

Finally, such an alliance should look at Finland. Ports, resources, and a lot more. It would also help secure the Baltic, and prevent a European Calipahte from being able to do as much via sea power, economic or military. There are also some other financial factors, but we may explore those another day.

As I’ve typed, I’ve had the idea for a name for this initiative to pop into my head: the Free Europe Initiative. Encouraging economic and other growth while advancing the concepts of freedom and individual liberty that are the bedrock of Western Civilization would provide not just a light for continental Europe, but potentially to the whole world. In a world gone mad, such will be much needed.

Just the rough outline for now. I’ve got some other thoughts already in place, but this needs more fleshing out. More soon I hope.

Belated Veteran’s Day

While I am not a veteran, I respect and honor all those who have served in uniform over the years. It has been my honor to have been a small part of the parade in NYC a couple of times, and to head up some events at the NASDAQ on Veteran’s Day. I’ve even marched in or helped out a time or two with the Indianapolis parade.

I’m blessed to have met a number of regular readers from here and from Blackfive over the years, and I salute you all. And, per my usual posts there and here, Veteran’s Day is the right day to thank for service and to honor the living (Memorial Day is for those who gave all).

Yesterday was very different from years past. Instead of being involved in events (and raising a glass with real Vets), I spent it going through years of things getting ready for my yard/pre-estate sale this weekend. I was actually surprised at how many assault packs I have, and will be selling them all along with a tactical briefcase and other odds and ends. Lots of clothing and even some artwork. There are some antique tools, a modern drill press, and a grinder/motor stand that is a bit unusual: it was made from scrap at an aerospace machine shop. It is a bit rugged, shall we say. I’ve even decided to sell a few mementos given me over the years. I have no children to give them too, and would rather see them off to a good home while I can rather than risk them hitting the garbage can once I’m gone.

Today I hope to hit the storage unit one last time before spending the afternoon and evening at the Church. I have a meeting with a nun who knows a great deal about liturgics who may be willing to help me as I learn about the same, then Vespers and a class. Also, borrowing two folding tables from the Church for the yard sale. Tomorrow will be spent on final pricing and preparation. Friday morning I roll things out and the adventure begins. If you are in or near Indy and interested, drop me a line and I will give you the addy.

Finally, don’t limit your appreciation of Vets to Veteran’s Day. All this week is a good time to buy a meal on the QT, buy a drink for them, or do other things to say thanks. For some, simply sitting and listening to them is the best and nicest thing you can do, especially our older Veterans.

USS Robert A. Heinlein

Okay, got this from Sarah A. Hoyt over on X today, and I’m in. Help make this go viral.

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It is the prerogative of the Secretary of the Navy to name Navy vessels. Navy policy is to name destroyers for deceased members of the Navy. We want the new Secretary of the Navy – John Phelan — to name a future DDG-51 Flight III destroyer for Robert A. Heinlein. This would happen if lots of people write asking him to name a future Arleigh Burke-class destroyer for Heinlein. Phelan’s address is: The Honorable John Phelan Secretary of the Navy Room 4E686 Defense Pentagon Washington, D.C. 20301 More information may be found at the Campaign website. http://USSRobertAHeinlein.com What To Do — • Write John Phelan; ask him to name a U.S. Navy vessel the U.S.S. Robert A. Heinlein. • Get as many others as you can to do the same! • Spread the information on the Campaign as far and as wide as possible!

Kamchatka

I noted somewhere the other day that the Ring of Fire was getting sparky, but wasn’t expecting an 8.8 off Kamchatka. Fact is, there are many small earthquakes every day, some in areas that people don’t think get earthquakes. Most are either deep enough or small enough that only seismologists notice them. Some faults, like the New Madrid, only seem to have a major event every few hundred years. Others, well, go off quite frequently, at least in geological terms.

When talking preparedness, I don’t focus on the almost infinite number of things that can happen, but in the types of damage they can do. Other than following earthquake building codes and suggestions when building structures, there’s not a lot you can do. I will note that some of the same things that help houses and other structures deal with high winds and tornadoes can help with mitigating structural damage from an earthquake, as they help a bit with flexibility and holding things together against unusual stresses.

My understanding is that you need a combination of flexibility and stability to avoid major structural damage. Of course, in some cases, there is not a lot you can do. Soil geology at the surface plays a large roll on how the seismic waves “act” on things. In the New Madrid quake some areas had the soil essentially “liquify” resulting in things in the ground shooting up (such as caskets) and things on the surface (like houses and other structures, going down almost without a trace.

Unlike weather phenomena, earthquake prediction is far more art than science. It’s being worked on, but we’re not there yet. So, it’s going to hit with little or no warning — which means your preparations have to be on reaction rather than being pro-active. It’s a different bit of planning, and if near the coast you should have a bug-out plan not only made but ready to go on zero notice for tsunami events, and elsewhere the same given that widespread fires can break out, dams fail, etc. Figure routes are likely to be clogged, and plan accordingly.

One of the more novel, and potentially very effective for the actual quake itself, was the tethered hot air balloon Daryl Dragon (the Captain of Captain and Tennille) allegedly had behind their house. If things were bad, launch and wait for things to settle down before coming down. Not sure if it was true or not, but seem to recall he talked about it in an interview or two. Fact is, if you could go up (or were up) when it hits, and stay up a while, it would allow you to miss the worst of things. At least initially.

On a more serious note, I am going to be interested to see what comes out in regards Petropavlovsk in the next few days. Between the earthquake and tsunami waves, it will be interesting to see what can be seen in regards the Russian Pacific Fleet, other bases, and the nuclear storage facilities. In particular, you do have to wonder how the subs tied up alongside — especially the boomers — fared. So far, not hearing of much damage but it’s well worth keeping an eye on.

Finally, in terms of preparedness, earthquakes are one of the reason to keep digging and demolition tools handy. There are a number of things that could leave one’s safe space covered in debris. Always be prepared to dig out, pry things up and over, or if possible jack or brace things so they don’t come down any further. Shovels, axes, pry bars, saws, jacks, rope, etc. are good to have around anytime, but may be even more appreciated after a quake.

Keep in mind that the Midwest really isn’t that well prepared for the New Madrid to pop off again. Building codes most places really don’t include earthquakes, and other mitigation actions aren’t there. The last time the New Madrid really kicked off, it was felt as far east as New York, a massive lake was formed in Tennessee, and portions of the Mississippi ran backwards for a time as plates were forced up. I may have to look for something I wrote about this years ago, as the area has built up so much now that a major event will devastate a good part of the center of the country.

Nor are the San Andreas and the New Madrid all we have to worry about. So, don’t think that because you are not in California you have nothing to worry about from a quake or quakes. As always, preparedness pays.

As always, keep your family and friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark — even if the earth is moving (and not from a happy thing).

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Re-Thinking Thinking About The Unthinkable

The good CDR Salamander has just put up a must-read post about nuclear war, nuclear theory, and preventing ‘the unthinkable.’ It is very well written; very well considered; and, refreshingly honest about where we are in terms of deterrence.

There are several points he makes with which I fully agree and endorse fully. We’ve been stuck in a mindset that is indeed “stuck in aspic” (LOVE that whole paragraph!) with the mouldering corpse of Kahn-ic thought for far too long. The so-called elite thinkers have little touch with reality that I can find, can’t agree on definitions to save their lives, and given that he is right (very) and they have not gotten a single non-nuclear war right in more than fifty years is less than re-assuring. I would also note that the times nuclear launch was averted it was not by the elites; rather, good and unpretentious men who saw the data didn’t add up and didn’t act to launch. In fact, of the times of which I am aware, it was the elites (and the politicians they advised) who had pushed things hot.

He’s also absolutely right about war games and war gaming things out. Remember, I wasn’t allowed to be OPFOR because I didn’t play the war game game. I played to win. I played to try to use them to figure out problems and solutions; which is a sin in the eyes of some for whom the games were a way to game pet theories into acceptance and use.

Two other points to make. First, I’ve never been comfortable with a triad. Remove one and it’s no longer stable. You need multiple legs. Second, I have always thought MAD was an abomination to God and to Man. It was and is morally, ethically, socially, and philosophically reprehensible. MAD is countervalue and gives you Philip Wylie and Triumph, or On The Beach. Disgusting concept and we can and should do better.

Sal gives a LOT of good food for thought. I would like to add the following to the mix, however.

First, while not nuclear, we should be looking at adding KEVs to the mix. If we can drop a deep penetrator down air shafts, we can drop a KEV. Which also means we need to consider weapons in space, which is a can of worms but one I think has already been opened. KEVs are flexible and yield can be adjusted via speed. When I say flexible, look at what Jerry Pournelle wrote about Project Thor, which was basically a crowbar with a semi-smart guidance package. Then look at some more recent work. Thing is, a range of options with a lot more flexibility than a nuke is likely to.

Second, we need to be looking at defense. Yes, Trump has announced Golden Dome and I have some hope for it. However, keep in mind that politicians on the left have done everything in their power to stop any and all work on defense against nuclear attack. We need layers and options, and the thing is some of what was done for SDI is still out there and works. The more layers, the better. Also, keep in mind those politicians who pushed for no defense were happy for you to die, though they would likely be secure and safe in their shelters.

Third, we need to look at civil defense options. I don’t think the program of the 50s is needed; but, we do need some civil defense. As I’ve noted before, there are aspects of it that are useful in other situations such as storm, fire, etc. It’s a concept that needs to be explored if we are going to have a serious talk on nuclear reform (including ways to keep the genie in the bottle).

Finally, I do think we also need to consider the need to transfer nukes to safety when portions of Europe fall to the invaders. Along with building a bulkwark in the East as discussed here with related discussion here.

I know some of you have experience and made some good points before in previous posts on nuclear war. Sound off here and there, keeping in mind this is a public forum.