Things got kicked up a notch at PT yesterday, which has me moving a bit slow today. PT is far from what I consider a strenuous workout, but it seems to hit in many of the same ways.
For example, by the time I got back from PT and having to run down to pick up some refills, I was starving. So, I hit the taco truck for a couple of good asada tacos (proper, cilantro and onion), which I was going to photograph to share with a friend. As soon as the box was opened, they were inhaled. No photos. No crumbs. No nothing left but the container. Breakfast this morning was also inhaled, and I’ve been hungry since.
I am cooking at least breakfast again. The problem has been more doing dishes, which really can’t be done one handed IMO. Also, while I’ve done a bit of offhanded shooting/weapons work over the years, it never occurred to me that I might should learn to whip eggs and flip eggs and other things off-handed.
I actually slept better last night than I have in a while. Not great, but better. That said, up early and moving slow. More discomfort than pain, but I can tell they did step things up.
It is interesting where things are going in terms of politics in Russia. A piece that some seem to be missing is that Wagner owns some critical resources in the CAR, as well as controlling other resources (on behalf of Russia/Vladimir) elsewhere. For all that Pringles is loyal to Vladimir (and yes, I do think he is in his own very Russian way), keep in mind that others — including some who work hard to stay in the background — are involved with those resource efforts in Africa and elsewhere. To say that what is going on is Byzantine is an understatement, but Russian politics have always tended that way. To the dismay of many in Foggy Bottom who persist in thinking that they are just like us but talk funny. Let me reiterate that if you are basing your take on how we do things and what makes sense to us, you will continue to be disappointed, unpleasantly surprised at events, and wrong about the outcomes.
Another thing I’m noting is some of the discussions of artillery and how Ukraine is being outgunned. True, they are. Russia has stockpiles of artillery and ammo — most of which were subjected to the same looting and storage as their tanks and such. Duds are one thing, but the guns and ammo that get cranky when fired are reportedly making life interesting for the Russian red leg brigades. It is straying from politics and into operational, which I try not to do, but look at the accuracy difference between Russia and Ukraine. It’s significant. Yes, with numbers you can overcome precision. If all the numbers work.
Also, while our enemies probably know we are out of critical segments of ammo, Joe going and telling the world that’s true is not a good thing. Never confirm, and never give the enemy an advantage. Admitting it, and pretty much admitting we are going to be years if not decades (see previous writings and links in this category) rebuilding stockpiles (which were far too little to start with) falls under the category of “bad thing.”
And, yes, our stockpiles of every type of ammo are inadequate for actual combat. If you can tell me a single time the bean counters have been right about numbers needed for the last 100 years, it will be news to me. They always vastly underestimate what is needed, and I’m beginning to suspect that it may well be a historical truism.
As for Russia stepping up production of various weapons: how? They depend on ball bearings from the U.S. and Europe for their tanks and more. Chips from the West for almost everything. They have lost a great deal of manufacturing capability, and if they can’t obtain parts and more from the West, well… Again, if you aren’t following Kamil Galeev, you should be.
Can things get out of control in terms of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Yes. Do I expect to see global thermonuclear war any time soon? No. Nuclear exchange? Maybe. Nuclear terrorism? Actually, yes. I still say that if it hits the point Vladimir can’t win he may just decide that no one should have the territory and what’s needed to unleash a dirty war has already been practiced almost a year ago. Still, right now, I would expect to see some form of conventional expansion before any of the nightmare scenarios being breathlessly touted.
Besides, as I’ve noted before: Vladimir wants to hurt us, not help us. With the Biden Regency and related doing more damage to the Republic than he could hope to inflict with a thousand nukes, I don’t see him taking out DC or initiating a larger exchange (which is problematic per previous writings) anytime soon. It would take something truly massive to change that I think. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not so much even with the staggering competence of the Biden Regency. (/sarc)
Meantime, I need to get back to doing more writing on preparedness, especially given how things are going domestically. Definitely have some new points to consider and perhaps lessons to share given the start of the shoulder replacements.
Keep your friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Life is interesting, and I suspect it is about to get even more so.