Let’s start with a bit of a mini-rant: The Kremlin IS NOT A BUILDING! It’s a freakin brick walled fortress containing multiple buildings and extensive grounds. In fact, somewhat better than 70 acres according to some sources.
I’ve got more photos, but this gives you a better idea of the size of the place. There are many buildings, extensive gardens, and you can get in some serious walking going through some of the museums inside. The buildings are very well built, because many/most of them date from the time of the Czars — which means the walls are a yard or more thick to deal with the cold weather. They’ve found it is a far better idea to gut and build new insides in them rather than tear them down, as they are generally in good shape and far better built than modern structures.
Never mind the fact that there are reported to be multiple bunkers underneath. In fact, some decent RUMINT has it that the first such shelter was built by Stalin as an offshoot of the Moscow subway system. The rumor that special trains can take off from the Kremlin to various get-away points at need still abounds. Now, add to this the fact that Vladimir does not live at the Kremlin despite the Senate Palace being his official home. He purportedly has multiple abodes in Moscow and nearby, more than one of which is alleged to have a bunker system.
Now, two good reads on the “attack” (and I use the quotes very deliberately) are this one from Ed Morrisey and this one from Stephen Green. Lots of good food for thought in both. I’ve been holding off on my analysis because there was a lot of stuff going on in regards this, and more bad information than there should have been in some areas.
Let’s get a few things out of the way. Someone raised on my timeline on Twitter that this could have been a Doolittle-type raid to raise morale. In terms of U.S. and Western culture, possibly. However, in terms of Russian (and Ukrainian) culture, NO. It is far more likely to keep things going in Russia in support of the invasion, and even cause escalation. I can’t stress enough how different Russian culture is from our own. They are not ‘just like us but talk funny.’
Next, while I am sure a one- or two-off system could be developed to hit Moscow from Ukraine, Ukraine does not currently have systems in use that can do it. Knowing that a hit on the Kremlin, symbolic or not, would have on the Russian government and populace, I can’t see them doing it, they are not that stupid. As for sending in a A-team of something similar to launch from within Russia, why? Why not instead use it to hit more supply depots, logistic hubs, and other prime targets directly supporting the invasion as they have been doing, but deeper behind the lines?
As for it being an assassination attempt, two things. First for all that the Russians are acting all butt hurt and upset (remember prior discussion on here about this very type thing and the whole ‘if she hadn’t fought back I wouldn’t have killed her’ mindset), Vladimir is a legitimate target. So far, any attempts to go after him or other senior leaders (allegedly) have taken place when they were in occupied territory, not Russia. There is a point to that.
Second, unless you have been there it is hard to describe how well built those Czarist buildings are: yard-plus thick walls, etc. From the little, and I do stress little, fireworks show seen, I don’t see major damage occurring.
Now, let’s consider that Moscow, and the Kremlin, have air defense networks. We just talked about the additional systems brought in a few weeks ago. Now, unless this was somehow the last ride of Mathias Rust, you are talking about getting two drones through a few hundred miles of airspace allegedly on high alert. For all that I am questioning and reconsidering a number of estimates of capabilities and numbers, color me skeptical.
So, to my mind, it comes down to two choices. An act of provocation by the ultranationalists; or, a false flag by the government.
For the first, there are several groups that have been pushing to go all in, from some of the Russian milbloggers to a variety of politicians. I could easily see some of them launching such an “attack” and doing a bit of self-destruct to prevent doing any real damage. They understand how this will be perceived by the government and the public, and wanted to provide that opportunity to the government.
On the second, it is very easy to see Vladimir doing something like this so he can escalate things. After all, after blowing up apartment buildings to gain power this is nothing. Send them in, have them heroically destroyed at the last possible moment, and you have an excuse to escalate. It fits in cultural and political constraints.
NOTE: There does appear to be a growing “partisan” movement in Russia. Fires and rail sabotage are one thing, but I don’t see them as doing this as it would bring about a huge crackdown for no gain.
Either way, Vladimir is going to seize on this opportunity. It gives him a chance to rattle the Biden Regency’s cage with threats of nuclear war or more; it frees him to act with less restraint in Ukraine; and, it could allow a chance to retreat for now with honor.
Vladimir has already blamed the U.S. for the attack, with Ukraine in the role of puppet/catspaw. He knows that the nuclear threat (which isn’t much of a threat these days IMO) terrifies Biden and/or the Regency and will use it as much as he can to get as much as he can. Even on non-nuclear options, expect to see him push as hard and far as he can.
Within operations against Ukraine, he now has options to bring in more troops (clothing, ammo, and food apparently optional), and take other steps to try to gain something. Would I be surprised to see more brutal attacks on civilians, justified by this attack? No, I’d be surprised if it didn’t happen. In fact, I see a lot of petty and vicious destruction for the sake of destruction in the future, along the lines of ‘If I can’t have you, nobody will.’ I still see Vladimir using the nuke plants and more to devastate Ukraine if he can’t have it, it fits both him and the culture.
Could he use special weapons? Yes, but I think that would be stupid. I still see the chances as ten percent or less, but desperate people do stupid things. As A. Nonymous put it in a comment on a previous post: “but stupid, desperate people sometimes do stupid, desperate things.” To recap earlier discussions: current troops do not appear to have MOPP gear. Using chemical or biological agents could take out more of his troops than Ukrainian. Nuclear use will force the West to act, and possibly over-react. I think given all that is starting to come out about nuclear forces, it’s really not a great idea for him to rattle that saber or otherwise go there.
One of the reasons I held off writing until now is that almost immediately after the attack, there were reports of nuclear weapons being moved in Russia. Some of these came from normally reliable sources, but I was not seeing confirmation nor was I seeing the responses that should occur in NATO and Western forces. Turns out, disinformation, some of which may have been aimed at discrediting sources. If you are looking for alerts and fairly solid info, check out Defcon.
Now, to get to that retreat with honor option that has some of you out there jumping up and down like a 6-year-old doing the pee-pee dance. One option I do see is for Vladimir to bring together enough power (military and political) to create some “great victory” that he can then claim was the goal and pull back to the 2014 lines. Ukraine (and others) are not going to be satisfied with that, but it works for Russia and Russians. It’s even similar to something Prigozhin proposed recently.
You can jump up and down and talk world opinion and such, but just keep in mind: Vladimir Doesn’t Care! All of this has been and is focused inside the bubbles. There are several bubbles within the big one. Within that big one, the opinion of the outside world does not matter.
Oh, speaking of Prigozhin, I would take the threat to pull his troops out with a grain of salt. About a pound-sized grain of Maldon smoked salt even. I disagree with Jazz’s take in a few areas, as I think if he does pull his troops out that it will backfire on him. Given that the kiss-and-make-up with Vladimir appears to be less than some have portrayed, and that he still is setting himself up to move up one way or another, he is on thinner ice than I think many suspect. Possibly including him. Note that his war on Shoigu and Gerasimov continues, which says interesting things. He has to know that Shoigu is set to take a bullet/fall for Vladimir, so going after him at this point might not be smart.
Now, on to another point raised by the keen mind of Stephen Green. He’s disappointed to see two so-called conservatives start parroting the Kremlin line. As for Catturd, I actually do enjoy some of his posts (particularly his dog/cat posts). But, he is, as noted, a shitposter who is what I would call an EverTrumper. As for Dreher, I used to respect him, especially given his role in exposing sex abuse within the Church. I lost almost all respect for him about three years ago. In some ways he reminds me a bit of Seymour Hersh: good work early, then drek. Dreher is in the NeverTrump camp and seems ready to hang out with David French. There is really not much difference between the two camps, as neither depends on the intellect and honor of its members, only blind obedience. Sorry, I’m in the “earn my vote” club and try to think and learn before I vote.
I am pretty much with him on his conclusion. I think we do have an obligation (thank you Bill Clinton, you jerk!) to them, and agree that we can’t let this aggression go unchecked. We just can’t do it at the levels we have been, because we have already crippled ourselves military and economically. Others have to step up. I notice that the Baltics and Poland, who understand what current events and Russkiy Mir mean to their future, are stepping up big time. Would that some of our other alleged allies do the same.
I’m still very much of the opinion that Kamil Galeev and others are right. If we want peace, and we want a peaceful future, the current Russian Federation needs to be broken up. I don’t know a good way to do it, certainly not a safe way to do it, but as long as Russkiy Mir and the dream of Imperial Russia lives, no one is safe.
One option I do see is for Vladimir to bring together enough power (military and political) to create some “great victory” that he can then claim was the goal and pull back to the 2014 lines. Ukraine (and others) are not going to be satisfied with that, but it works for Russia and Russians.
What good does that do Putin, if the Ukrainians refuse to play along?
The Russians start to retreat back to the 2014 lines. The Ukrainian’s attack the retreating troops, who are now out in the open. They focus their attacks on the trucks / trains carrying the supplies / troops.
So, having lost their defenses, and been bombed when they’re someplace without defenses, what do teh Russia troops do then?
Flee?
Once they’ve spent days and miles fleeing, what makes anyone think they’re going to stop fleeing at the “new border”?
Once the Russian troops fleeing are getting close to the new border, and the Ukrainians switch their fires to the “security troops” waiting to bully the fleeing troops, what I see is “disaster for the Russians”
I’m sure the Russian’s would be happy to try to pull a “staged pullout”
I’m dubious that they have troops willing to stay around and play rear guard.
I’m also dubious that they have the NCO core / troops with the morale and intestinal fortitude to stop a panicked retreat once it gets started
Now, I think your comments about “bubbles” apply, and it’s quite possible that Putin believes that the Russian troops could pull off that maneuver.
So maybe he’ll try it. but since I think it would be an utter disaster for the Russians, i hope he does try it
Re staged pullout: To be fair the Formerly Red Army managed something along these lines in Kherson, but they had the river there as a natural obstacle to “keep going until you get back to Siberia”, so troops had to not break if they wanted to be allowed to cross.
Much more difficult when that “stop here” location is a line on a map.
I agree that I don’t think it will work, but that they may try it. Like you, I sorta hope they do…
The explosive appears to be pyrotechnic and not a true high explosive. It is red in nature indicating a strontium nitrate or perchclorate. Trust me I have a background in this stuff
Good point! Thank you for bringing that up.
I think it all boils down to Crimea.
Russia, for excellent geostrategic reasons badly wants to control it. It cannot do so reliably with the 2014-2022 borders. The current control of Southern Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk makes Crimea much more easy to defend and supply than it was (prior to 2022) when everything had to go across that bridge and Ukraine had the right to sail ships under it. Also as I understand it a significant amount of Crimea’s water supply comes from pipes from southern Kherson and there isn’t really much of an alternative source except to tell people to drink less/wash less etc.
But of course while the current lines of control are great for Russia they are extremely bad for Ukraine because – even ignoring the land occupied by Russia – they threaten Ukraine’s major port, Odessa, and the shipping to/from that. So Ukraine for equally good strategic reasons also wants control of Crimea in addition of course to regaining all the bits Russia has nibbled off since 2014.
The Crimea situation is why there is no way we can go back to 2014 borders except as a brief ceasefire while Ukraine begs borrows or builds enough drones to take out Crimea’s defense and connectivity to Russia (aka that bridge and the ferry ports next to it). Or Russia rearms and prepares another invasion. Or both. Particularly now, neither side can afford to let the other have undisputed control of Crimea.
The only way I can see to solve that problem is for one nation or the other to collapse. The war has caused Ukraine to unify so the only nation that can collapse is Russia.
Good points, and thank you for sharing them.
Crimea is the only reasonable Schwerpunkt for the war. BLUF: Putin gives up everything but:
Russia keeps access to Sebastopol complex (extend leasing rights, negotiable)
and, for a fig leaf to pretend he cares,
Ukraine creates some BS human rights commission on Donbas so everyone who likes Russia better can go there safely without being expropriated (excepting oligarchs?) and be happy there. (Also, all other Russians abroad can do that.)
This gives Putin 2 wins:
Hooray I kept Sebastopol!
Hooray I protected the Russian people everywhere! AND removed all these flashpoints that surely would have led to war…
Naturally, reparations, trials, … TBD/negotiable.
I’ve heard some option described as a “White Peace” which is as above, but Crimea becomes a protectorate (?) if those who funded the war.
Anyway he could have had that a year ago without war, he could probably get that now, I don’t see him ending up with better than that in another year or 10 years, atop another hundred thousand or another million bodies.
Unify outlawing opposition and destroying rival power centers.
Any obligation we had towards the Ukraine evaporated the moment Zelazny began imprisoning and expropriating the property of political rivals.
Now that he’s moved on to oppressing the Greek Orthodox Church, Putin has become the lesser evil.
Bloody parsing code filtered out the “does not equal” symbols.
Unity *Does Not Equal* outlawing opposition and destroy rival power centers.
Regarding the Kremlin raid. I think it may have been a Ukraine mission and if so I suspect it was intended to send a message.
The message being that Ukraine can get drones in to anywhere in Russia.
I anticipate a major uptick in “smoking accidents” at all sorts of critical infrastructure in Russia starting, as we have seen recently, with rail lines, fuel storage sites and airfields. This is will be an extension into Russia of Ukraine’s previous attacks on Russia supply chains and I expect it to be quiet successful, even if Russia shoots down some of the attackers. It may even count as a success if no critical infrastructure is severely damaged long term because it has to result in Russia drawing back air defense kit from the front lines to defend against this and that, of course, weakens the front lines and leaves them vulnerable to drone attacks.
It is worth noting that air defense radars and the like are things that Russia is almost certainly unable to either build or import in a timely fashion. Not can’t afford to, or doesn’t want to, literally cannot. Even if a magic money tree gushes bazillions over the suppliers it cannot buy or build and deploy large numbers of new air defense systems. Russia is, also, vast. So either Russia has to use its existing systems to defend its enormous territory from drone attack or it has to use them to defend the HQs, ammo dumps etc. on the front lines. It cannot do both.
So two engineering solutions, compared:
Problem One: Go splodey when you impact something. The current solution visible in FPV drone vids from the combat zone is two pieces of copper wire strategically bent so they touch when something is impacted. You could also do this with other less exposed methods, including purely chemical and thus free of electronic interference vulnerability, but suffice to say any impact-based solution is simpler by far.
Problem Two: Go splodey when you reach a point 3o feet (or 10 meters in the obscure French system) over the dome up top of the unoccupied Kremlin ceremonial rubber-stamping chamber of Russian government in the wee hours of the morn. This requires precise navigation input and a digital trigger once it reaches the precise coordinates, or alternately some form of proximity fuse armed once it gets sorta close to to the target. Complicated no matter how you slice it.
Solution to Problem One is two bent pieces of 6 gauge solid copper wire, or 4 gauge if concerned about wobblyness. Solution Two is a complex design susceptible to electronic disruption in either guidance or fusing.
Heck, unless it’s FPV hand-flown it could be diverted off into the woods outside Moscow via spoofing if it’s using GLONASS/GPS/whatever the European one is.
If one were trying to make a hole using energetic rearchitecting, Solution One would be a lot more reliable.
But to make a highly visible bang, you pretty much have to go with tow, or with Yuri flying the thing by hand and Vlad on binoculars hitting the bang button when it gets there.
While your arguments as to who would/wouldn’t want to make a band on the Kremlin dome make sense… I think there are a couple of other possible players to consider.
1) You mention Russian partisans….and generally dismiss them…..but what about non-Great Russians? The Belorussians *also* have shown a knack for partisan sabotage with what they have done to Russian rail logistics and drone attacks on airborne early warning radar planes. How would a Kremlin demonstration play among that faction? Might Chechens or other Russian minorities find it a worthwhile way to pull FSB back to Moscow from the sticks?
2) While non-government partisans might find such a strike difficult to pull off, any major national inelegance service just wanting to use a “bang” to send a message should not find such a stunt *that* difficult. And it may not be the message we expect…. While I rather doubt the current American administration is into playing such games, I’m not sure that I’d put it past the French or British. Or the Poles or Balts, who might want to rattle Putin into doing something stupid to energize NATO. Or the Iranians or Chinese, who would be more than willing to sell more drones to the Russians to exact “revenge” for a false flag attack…
3) Finally, I can see one reason for the Ukrainians to do a symbolic attack… Getting some Kremlin apparatchik to decide that the Moscow air defense district needs more assets, and thin out those in (or intended for) service in Ukraine. Which might be helpful on the eve of a Ukranian fighting season…
If all Ukraine history starts after 2014, if the media is composed of journalists, not propagandists, and if our Neo-marxists western leaders are honorable men and knights in shining armor, I see a lot of logic in your take, Laughing W.
Otherwise I’m still at damnedifIknow.
No, Ukrainian history starts at 1994, with the Budapest Accords, where Russia agreed to defined Ukrainian borders, and Ukraine agreed to give up nuclear weapons.
You dont’ like those borders? Great!
Then Ukraine gets its nukes back, and missiles, such that they can nuke moscow and St Petersberg if Russia refuses to honor their borders.
That make you happier? No?
Then Russia needs to GTFO of Ukraine, as defined by the Budapest Accords.
You can play “heads I win, tails you lose”. You can play “that was last century’s agreement, we need a new one now (that we got everything from the old one, but don’t want to uphold our end of the deal).
Just don’t expect anyone to value what you have to say, once you’ve gone down that road.
Our country has a process for creating binding international treaties.
This process was not followed, nor even attempted, with respect the the Budapest Accords.
If you want to hand Clinton a musket and send him off to the front lines, feel free. The deal was with him, and I have no objection to him upholding his part.
But as to your larger claim, that bridge has already been burnt to a radioactive crisp. Bush II made similar promises to Libya for the same purpose, only for his successor to actively sponsor a successful insurrection in that country.
Russia signed a binding treaty.
They can either remain bound by it, or they can be completely in the worng, to be opposed by every person who does have their hed entirely up their backside.
Because Russia NOT honoring the treaty is a strong argument for nuclear proliferation.
Either countries can give up nukes in exchange for secure borders, or else everyone needs nukes.
If you don’t see the problems with “everyone needs nukes”, you are blind
Very insightful article.
I must admit to an interest here, as i live in the Baltics.
But since our host has already mentioned American obligations to Ukraine, I do not need to appeal to solidarity.
Instead, I am writing this to point to (what looks to me) an obvious way in which the US could hurt Russia while enriching itself at the same time; namely, returning to Trump-era energy policies.
This is also (again, in my opinion) an obvious way for any US Presidential candidate, especially but not only Trump (and perhaps not only GOP) to score a point against Biden: just say that Biden is effectively financing Putin, and that you will pay for the support to Ukraine with the revenues from fossil fuels that you will deny to Putin.
That does not not exclude ramping up the pressure on Germany and other shirkers (something that Trump also did during his tenure, anyway).
If there is anything wrong with this, please let me know.