To the point that Instapundit seems to be, but I’m close. And not just on Russian systems and nuclear devices — our own are in a rather parlous state. Nor is my take on Russia just because of the latest launch test failure.
There is a lot I don’t share here either because I can’t confirm it or because while there may be some confirmation I’m having a hard time believing it. This includes internal politics and intrigue in the Kremlin, and in Russia in general. It doesn’t include the sad state of Russia’s much vaunted stockpiles, as that information has been confirmed in every way possible short of personal physical inspection. And while I wouldn’t mind so doing, I do suspect Vladimir and a few others might object to my so doing.
However, it does include Russia’s special weapons and launch systems. And our own. In both cases, launch tests have not gone to plan (cough), launch and other systems have had issues, and one has to wonder about maintenance — which special weapons require even above and beyond launch systems.
Give Russia credit: our “elite leadership” have us stuck with Minuteman systems and have shot down, shut down, or otherwise killed everything that could have replaced it. Russia is working to update it’s launch systems via the liquid-fueled SARMAT II (SATAN II) which we have discussed before. This Ronco missile (it slices, it dices, it can dance, it can sing, etc.) was supposed to replace previous systems. Five years ago. Still ain’t there. See previous discussions for more on it. Heck, there are rumors of a SATAN III in development, but given that SARMAT still isn’t up and running I’m inclined to put that down to marketing for now.
We’ve also talked a bit here before about nuclear weapons and such, and that they can have a bit of a delicate disposition. To be polite. Some of the comments on previous discussions have highlighted such, and come from people with firsthand knowledge.
Officially, I’m still in the twenty percent block; that is, I think as many as twenty percent of the launch systems (other than submarine launched missiles) may work, twenty percent of the warheads may work, etc. I am, however, starting to revise that down a bit. I really don’t want to find out if I’m right, but the smart money is on Russia (and ourselves) blustering but not risking. Now, insanity comes in the form of Iran and other newer members/soon-to-be members of the nuclear club as I think their efforts may well work as they have not been hobbled by test bans and the like. Not a happy making thought.
If anyone uses a weapon in the near future, and it works, betting it is the latter rather than Russia or ourselves.
By the way, if anyone has any info on if the 1,000 Chechen troops supporting Vladimir are still in Moscow at the hotel, please let me know. As I have noted more than once recently, there are some strange things going on in and around a certain red-brick structure.
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One of the fears I have had for awhile, especially after it became readily apparent how poorly the modern Russian military and its equipment was performing in the Ukraine war compared to Western systems, was that we’d have a whoopsie start the cascade towards a nuclear exchange. This is especially heightened because of the absolute lack of actual, effective, competent leadership in the Western nations who have nuclear capabilities. The recent bad test of the sarmat serves as an example of why I have these fears.
who currently has control of the nuclear football here in the US? Uncle Joe Dementia? that is a horrible thought. The sycophantic enablers in the White House who hid his mental state for so long? that is a worse thought. How would Western leaders react to Iran doing something dumb with a nuclear weapon? Consider that in light of how they have been treating Israel.
I frankly don’t trust the current establishment at all – I worry they would prefer WW3 to ceding power.
I will admit, I was/am worried that all the failures would push Vladimir to do something stupid. Especially since, like you, I don’t think the leadership here, in England, or France (or Germany though non-nuclear) have the brains of an inbred cocker spaniel. Does anyone think any of them have taken part in any nuclear or crisis simulation? Right now, less worried about Vladimir than I am Iran et cie.
I’m more worried who has the biscuit, as I’m willing to bet it is not Joe. Given all, have no faith that any of the protocols, including the verification by the NMCC, are being or will be followed. About the only semi-positive thing I can say about the situation is that while I think they would prefer WWIII to ceding power, I think the larger danger is that they will Frell Up By The Numbers out of sheer incompetence.