IRBM Redux

So Vladimir decided to raise the stakes in his ongoing series of threats to go nuclear. What he did was smart on several levels, and incredibly stupid on several more. Let’s take a minute to look at this with a calm if jaundiced eye.

Almost immediately upon starting his “three-day-war” against Ukraine, Vladimir has been threatening to go nuclear. It was a way to try to keep the West (primarily but not exclusively NATO) out of the fray and to discourage any and all help for Ukraine. Frankly, I can’t blame him.

Let’s face it: that is the only threat he has. Even in the massive information bubble in which he and other top leaders (and not just in Russia — look to the last election for great examples here) reside. He is in a silo in a bubble in which bad news, much less reality, rarely enters. For all that, I suspect that he had to know just how much of a paper bear the Russian military had become.

Oh yes, they have all these massive stockpiles of tanks, guns, artillery, etc. Pretty much all of which have rusted to the point it is cheaper and much easier to make new ones than to try to repair/refurbish the rusted hulks. Never mind that many of those items allegedly stockpiled either never existed (corruption) or had been stolen/sold (desperation/survival, plus corruption). If you haven’t been reading my stuff before, I and others have pointed out that many items, including very sensitive systems, had been sold on the black so that troops and workers could eat and survive within an extremely corrupt system.

I’ve also written before about how Vladimir is much like a necromancer in fiction: once the snake has been tossed on the table, you can’t just let things slide. To give in to nuclear blackmail is to ensure worse for the future and our children. It has to be dealt with, firmly, or others will take up the staff as well. Our problem has been the feckless and incompetent Biden Regency, which is Obama III. Keep in mind it was Obama who abrogated our responsibilities to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum when Vladimir decided to take Crimea.

Yet, Vladimir continues to raise nuclear as an option because he has nothing else. He can’t mobilize the manpower numbers needed, and of those who have been brought in (forced in even) are untrained, ill-led, and ill-equiped. There is no realistic way for him to mobilize even a fraction of the numbers needed for full combat, and if he tries the economy crashes hard given how many critical positions are already unfilled. Train drivers (-2,500) are just the tip of that iceberg. Never mind that well over a million of the ‘best and brightest’ of the younger generations decided to go expat over the invasion. Brain drain is a real and dangerous thing. The only way he is getting the arms he needs to any degree is by purchasing (one way or another) from other countries and manning by using foreign troops (hello Kim!).

Now, here’s the problem for him: are the strategic forces in any better shape than any other part of the Russian military (or space program for that matter)? Lots of little things have popped up over the last couple of years. Also, a few larger ones. When Biden visited Ukraine a while back, it appears that Vladimir tried to stage a test launch of a Sarmat/Satan II ICBM as a show of force and threat. That didn’t happen, and it appears it may have been rather spectacular at the launch site. Also, keep in mind the corruption that still plagues the regular military was also part-and-parcel of the strategic forces as well. Of all the parts, systems, weapons delivered, how many were real? Also keep in mind that Sarmat was supposed to have replaced all other ICBMS as much as ten years ago. Hasn’t happened. There are reasons for that.

Which brings us to the recent IRBM launch. Here’s a decent article on the system itself. For those looking at pedigree, Oreshnik derives from Rubezh, which derives from Yars, which in turn dervies from the Topol if I remember correctly (Topol minus a stage I think). Keep in mind, that the USSR was always good at ‘one-offs’ in terms of development. They could, would, and did come up with ‘showcase’ projects that were (esp. given tech limitations) quite impressive in their own way. Where they flat out suck has always been in production. I suspect that is a large part of what is happening with the Sarmat. It’s happened on other military systems before, and it’s worth remembering that on the civilian side so-called ‘identical’ Soyuz and other space vehicles could not exchange parts because each was essentially a custom build.

The only thing they ever seem to have been able to mass produce reliably that had any complexity (cough) was the AK. They even had to sub out mines and more to the satellite countries. Heck, some of the best AKs came from the satellite countries to be honest.

For me, I am very interested in the Re-entry Vehicles and the reported sub-munitions. Especially given the reported Mach 11 speeds on terminal.

Regular RVs tend not to be very accurate by modern standards, having at best about a fify-foot CEP. To be honest, Soviet CEP sucked and at one point was up to ten miles. They improved that, but to make up for ongoing issues used much larger warheads. Here, the use of sub-munitions seems to imply either an intended conventional use or that multiple weapons may be needed to make up for other shortcomings. Could be off on that, but it was the first thing that popped into my mind. The other thing that did pop up after that was deploying multiple weapons to take out an extended column (or fortifications) in a gap or line.

It is also rather unprecedented to give the world (and your enemies) this good a look at the operations of a system allegedly in development. Not to mention the chance to recover pieces/fragments/chunks for analysis. Yep, some have already been found and I guarantee the tech intel types are salivating at the chance to examine them.

And speaking of stupid-on-steroids, threatening a U.S. base on another country’s soil isn’t bright. That’s not something that can be ignored (at least by competent people, which seem to be in short supply under the Biden Regency). It sets the stage for guaranteed escalation of force if anything does fly towards, or worse yet hit, that base. Given the apparent parlous state of Russia’s strategic and conventional forces (and our own, sadly), that’s really not a place you want to go. Especially given that a new administration is inbound.

Which brings up some very non-technical considerations. Trump was NOT Vladimir’s choice by any means. Vladimir was quite open and serious about supporting the H/W ticket because he saw them both as easily manipulated idiots in the service of Obama around whom he has run rings for years. Same for the Hildebeast and several others. Also, wonder what his good buddy (with the knife at his back) Xi may have said about the governor…

If Vladimir wants to cement what gains he has, and set the stage for another attack later, he needs to do it under the current Regency. And he needs to do it quick. What could make things move faster than a nuclear threat? Also, don’t forget that in all the ways that matter, Vladimir is already at war with much of the West. So far it’s been mostly low-level stuff, like this reported at Legal Insurrection (if you aren’t reading LI and esp. Leslie’s science reporting, you are missing out). The sabotage is more than troubling as it has a greater chance of escalation than nuclear sabre rattling.

Under most circumstances, I would say that the chances of things going nuclear under Vladimir were under ten percent. For all that he may be many things, I generally don’t think he’s THAT stupid. It’s why I tend to see the IRBM launch as an act of desperation even more than an act of careful escalation.

The only problem is, as I’ve been pointing out for two-plus years now, desperate people do stupid things. Russia finds itself battered upon the rocks such that any chance of the dream of Russkiy Mir are fading faster than the career of the Snow White actress. They are beset by matters economic, demographic, disease (AIDs and more), brain drain, and unrest in restive provinces. On our end of things, you have an administration and an administrative state that sees the end of the world as they know it. Which is why I’m not quite sure what to think about this article (HT Rich Lowe) suggesting a push for nuclear war to prevent the loss of power. Have to admit, what I would have considered unthinkable not all that long ago is now very thinkable.

Likely is the key, however. I don’t think we are there yet, and while it never hurts to prepare for the worst, I am not moving to gather the last-minute prep if I think the bombs are about to fly. I’m still very much trying to take care of basics (and thank you to everyone who donated recently! Your gifts are helping me get caught up on several things including needed OTCs and winter clothing).

I think where we are is an effort to cripple operations by Ukraine and to give an administration, that has ample reasons to forestall various efforts and investigations by an incoming administration, a valid excuse to move rapidly on a “settlement” beneficial to all (except the peoples of the countries involved).

If we were moving faster and closer to a nuclear exchange, I would expect to see some other signs. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I’m doubtful for now. If it does happen, as I’ve been saying for a while now, I will be surprised if twenty percent of the systems work. I really don’t want to find out if I’m right, as there really is only one way to do so. But, I don’t see a need for fear or panic just yet.

I do think you should be prepared, as preparedness always pays. Hit the preparedness archive at need, and if you have questions, sound out. I hope to do a bit more on preparedness soon.

So, grab a towel and don’t panic. Be prepared, up your preparedness, and keep your friends close and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.