Out!

Out, damned spot! out, I say!–One: two: why, then, ’tis time to do’t.–Hell is murky!–Fie, my lord, fie! a soldier, and afeard? What need we fear who knows it, when none can call our power to account?–Yet who would have thought the children to have had so much blood in them.

No basin, no sink, no river will wash away those spots from all those hands.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Shinzo Abe

More than almost any other world leader, Shinzo Abe saw what was coming and worked hard to bring the West together to face the authoritarians. He brought those of democratic background together around the world to build the bulkwarks against the coming storm. His not-quite eye roll at Merkel’s bloviating to Trump at a summit remains a treasured moment that can still make me smile and laugh. He will never have the respect in the media of an “austere religious scholar” and I suspect he would me more than okay with that. The timing of his assassination worries me very much, and I am going to be following what come out about his assassin and the motivations/payments/etc. closely. I’m more than a little concerned he was the canary in the coal mine for Asia.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Hmmmm Follow-Up

Saturday night’s post was short and sweet simply because it happened quickly and there just wasn’t a lot of information. For those that missed it, Vladimir made a fast trip into the Kremlin at 2300 hours (11 pm) Moscow time. Oh, translate the tweet, as it is hilarious. Vladimir going into the Kremlin? Not unusual. Doing so at 2300? Unusual. Very unusual and usually indicates something fairly major has happened. A number of people took notice, including me.

Then, things took a turn for the weird when Kremlin Spox Peskov denied that Vladimir had come in to make a statement. WTF? It’s almost unheard of for a spox to admit that anyone has come into the Kremlin for any reason at any time, just as our spox don’t acknowledge when people go into The Tank, the crisis room, etc. Then, to deny that Vladimir had come in to make a statement is beyond weird.

Now, in the aftermath of this, there was this report of an aircraft making a run north. That particular plane has been used by Gerasimov to get him and his staff places before, and it would appear others have used it as well. Not unusual per se, but at least one observer noted that the last time they saw that plane make that trip, it was when the Moskva was sunk. However, there was no indication of anything of that magnitude happening, and even with the Ukrainians being such shy and retiring types when it comes to their successes surely we would have heard something.

So, welcome to the wonderful world of intel. Something was going on, but so far no rumors out of Moscow as to what was going on. That is a bit unusual as Moscow leaks just as badly as DC, so I really would have expected to hear something by now. Theories do abound, of course. One is that it was a reaction to China upping it’s alert because of a U.S. plane in the straights. Another is that it had something to do with Belarus and Lithuania. Yet another is that it had to do with the debt default that was looming. And, of course, the almost obligatory idea that something had gone wrong internal to Russia. I admit, at the time, I was wondering if the Ukrainians had potted another Russian general.

I’m keeping my ears open, and hope that this is one of those where we do learn fairly soon what was going on. So long as they are not running for the exits, life is good.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Hmmmm

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Hmmmm

Not sure what is going on, but something just sent Vladimir into the Kremlin at a good clip. The message with the video is hilarious. May be something, may be nothing. Interesting for sure.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Russia/Ukraine/Lithuania

Since the last update, the only thing that has changed in terms of Russia/Ukraine is that Russia is pushing hard in more areas in an effort to seize territory and cut off reinforcements from counter-attacking. Of course, that works both ways and the recent deep drone strike(s) by the Ukraine are designed to put the Russians on the defensive. Expect it to get even more brutal and nasty here soon, and for the latest information on the combat check out the OSINT people I link to on Twitter (@laughingwolfone) as a good start.

Not exactly a daring prediction, but expect the Russian push to intensify so that Vladimir can “annex” the most possible territory even if he doesn’t really control it. The announcement of annexation is also likely to declare that any attempt to defend (in areas he doesn’t really control) or to take back what they have seized will be an act of war by Ukraine and NATO.

Yes, I expect Vladimir to expand things as they’ve spent the last 20 or so years preparing the populace for war, even nuclear war, with NATO and the U.S. If you aren’t familiar with some of this, check out Kamil Galeev’s extensive work on this and related subjects.

Right now, Lithuania is pushing as hard as it can to make this a NATO/EU war by cutting off access to the Kaliningrad enclave. For those who know not history, Commander Salamander points out a rather unpleasant historical parallel.

The Baltic states have been pushing for this to be a NATO/EU war from the start, and on some levels it is hard to blame them. They know they are on the list to be brought into Russkiy Mir by force. Vladimir has just reinforced that with a series of comments and provocations against them and Denmark. That said, I am less than thrilled with their efforts and this latest by Lithuania has the potential to go sideways in a hurry. Then again, that’s why they are doing it.

There are those who are already calling this the Cold War 2, and saying it could last generations. On some levels, I hope they are right. There is far too great a potential for this to become a hot war on levels no one will like. It will take competent, knowledgeable, and strong leadership to navigate either a cold war or a hot, and frankly I don’t see that leadership anywhere in sight right now.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting


A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Learning from what they don’t say

What leftists aren’t saying about the controversial lesbian kiss in Lightyear shows that they know the truth about conservative racial beliefs — and always lie about it.

I know conservatives are supposed to be racist scum, but look at what doesn’t get said about the controversy surrounding Disney’s new movie, Lightyear.

The Daily Mail’s headline: “Disney’s Lightyear FLOPS in opening weekend that saw it fail to topple Jurassic Park at box office after controversy over lesbian kiss and decision to ax conservative star Tim Allen as voice of Buzz”

Variety, in March: “Same-Sex Kiss Restored in Pixar’s ‘Lightyear’ Following Staff Uproar Over ‘Don’t Say Gay’ Bill (EXCLUSIVE)”

The LA Times reports: “…it was reported that a previously cut kiss shared by queer “Lightyear” character Alisha Hawthorne and her wife was reinstated in the film….[I]ncreasingly loud conservative voices [] try to foment irrational outrage over any acknowledgement of the actual reality of LGBTQ people existing.”

And on, and on, and on.

Of all of those articles posted above, only the Daily Mail shows a picture of the couple in question. Notice anything?

Why aren’t the bigots overreacting to this? I was told there would be bigots!

Yes, they’re an interracial couple.

But the horrifyingly evil conservatives who hate the entire LGBTQIA2SNPZ spectrum, people of color, women, and the poor equally, aren’t saying “boo” about this interracial couple — even though overturning Roe v. Wade would apparently lead us to overturn interracial marriage.

And no leftist (a.k.a. “mainstream”) outlets have even tried to claim that horrifyingly evil conservatives might say such a thing. You’d think that one of us vicious racists would have said something racist about queer miscegenation, and that some leftist paper would have picked it up — and if we didn’t say it, they’d make something up and claim that we were thinking it. But we didn’t say anything, and they didn’t report on anything, and they didn’t even think about accusing us of racism because, well, it’s such nonsense that even they couldn’t dream it up.

What leftists aren’t saying shows us that they know the truth about conservative racial beliefs, even though they normally say the exact opposite.

[Laughing in Clarence Thomas]

A Quick Russia/Ukraine Update

As I said a while back, I am happy to have been wrong about May. That said, while I have dropped the use of special weapons to 40 percent, I am not inclined to drop lower yet. Why? Internal rhetoric and the fact that things stood up have not been stood down. Until I see the internal discussions change, and things stood down and locked back up, I have to consider such things as still on the table. Not likely currently, but things change and they can change in a heartbeat.

The demented meat puppet is NOT helping things. Someone yesterday said he was trying to finesse things, which scares the everliving out of most sane people as he and his handlers don’t have a clue of how to do that. He and his administration continue to both needlessly antagonize Vladimir (and miss a lot of what is needed to deal with him and the situation) and present challenges to our allies.

In other words, pretty much same old, same old. No real change over the last few weeks. As for the actual combat, it is the grind previously discussed. The OSINT crew out there is doing an amazing job of not only covering the combat, but also the history, cultural, and other factors that go into this conflict. If there is an interest, I will put up a list of the OSINT people I follow. I will also say (again) that back in the early 80s I would have just about killed for some of the resources OSINT has today. And, not surprising, OSINT is largely beating the various agencies and organizations on a consistent basis. Only other thing is that so far the Ukraine has fought very smart. Conventional wisdom and a lot of current military planning is getting stood on its head and smart people are paying attention.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

Very Interesting

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Wheat supplies at 10 weeks

Farmers and agricultural publications continue to provide detail that shows the seriousness our politicians aren’t yet really facing.

Menker’s team at Gro Intelligence finds, as of May 19, global inventories of wheat amount to 20% of annual consumption, meaning the world has just 10 weeks’ worth of global wheat consumption in storage.

“Conditions today are worse than those experienced in 2007 and 2008,” she says. “The lowest grain inventory levels the world has ever seen are now occurring, while access to fertilizers is highly constrained, and drought in wheat growing regions around the world is the most extreme it’s been in over 20 years.”

AgWeb, Is the World Really Running Out of Wheat? 06/07/2022

Note that AgWeb doesn’t answer the question that they ask. The answer appears to be, “Yes, we are running out of wheat.”

More specifically, the world would probably be okay if we were getting bumper crops in the US and Canada, but we’re not. We’re lucky in that the over-wet weather finally broke long enough for us to get wheat, corn, and soybeans planted, but we’re not going to get a crop that will compensate for the lack of wheat elsewhere.

Also worth noting: The price of beef is not looking too expensive right now relative to expectations. Unfortunately, that appears to be because beef farmers are afraid that the cost of fodder and grains will go high enough that they won’t be able to keep their cattle profitably, so it’s better to slaughter and sell them in the short term than raise them longer term. That keeps a lid on prices right now — higher supply — but reduces supply in the future dramatically, because we’re killing tomorrow’s stock today.

I reiterate that I’m not an expert on this stuff and am only repeating what I hear from people in the business who seem to know better. Feel free to argue: I’d love to find out that I’m wrong.

Very Interesting

The Russian Orthodox Church has removed it’s chief ecumenical official and effective foreign minister Metropolitan Hilarion. He’s to take over the Diocese of Budapest and Hungary.

It is worth noting that he came out against war just before the invasion. It should be noted that Patriarch Kirill (who I think had input to Russkiy Mir and has endorsed it) is pro war and pro Vladimir. Probably a good thing I’m not a good Catholic these days, as my thoughts on Kirill are not kind. There is already schism brewing in the Russian Orthodox Church over the war, with the Ukranian branch declaring themselves independent of Moscow and a surprising number of priests within the Russian Church that have not only come out against the war but condemned Patriarch Kirill.

I noted a couple of months ago that had seen a change in Vladimir a couple of years ago. Formerly he was (coldly) calculating, sharp, and a master manipulator of people. More than ever I’m convinced that something happened 2-5 years ago that changed that. When you see a change that big, it most often involves something that makes you face your own mortality. In Vladimir’s case, I also admit it could be demographic and other data that shows the window rapidly closing not only on Russkiy Mir, but Russia itself.

I mention this because the removal of Metropolitan Hilarion would not have happened without Vladimir’s full knowledge and approval. I also think this shows his decline as a manipulator of people even more than the way he’s been treating subordinates in public and in private.

I also noted the other day that there was a lot of jockeying around in the Kremlin. More than ever, it looks as if people are trying to shore up positions and prepare for the departure of Vladimir. It is going to be very interesting to see how this plays into that, and the impact on the Russian Orthodox Church’s relations with the world and with its own discontent.

Some Previous Posts:

Vladimir And The Ukraine

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Your Must Read For The Day On Russia

The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Thursday Update

Not A Lot To Add

Noted

Monday Update

Burn Notice

Accuracy, Reliability, And More

Putin, Trump, And The Coming Storm

Three Futures For Russia

Quick Thoughts

Saturday Update

Mismatched Locomotives

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

Huge Grain Of Salt

The Moskva

Retribution Inbound

Uncertainty And Preparation

Honest Question

Monday Morning Quick Brief

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

Three Times Is…

If It’s Wednesday, This Must Be Moldova

Going Nuclear

How To Spy On The Russians

Here’s Hoping I’m Wrong

Pins And Needles Time

Mock Away

Intel Wars

The Revenge Of HUMINT

A Funny Thing Happened

Rumors of Rumors

Ukraine, Uvalde, Oh My

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Too Stupid to Govern, 2

Regarding the shooting at Uvalde, Pete Buttigieg asks, “Will anything be different this time?”

“But you’re also looking at Washington to say ‘Will anything be different this time?’ Will we actually acknowledge the reasons why we are the only country, the only developed country where this happens on a routine basis?” he asked.

“And the idea that us being the only developed country where this happens routinely, especially in terms of the mass shootings, is somehow a result of the design of the doorways on our school buildings, is the definition of insanity if not the definition of denial,” he said.

Pete Buttigieg

We would provide better physical security for Congressmen if there were an attack on Congress.

We would provide better physical security at stadiums if there were attacks on sporting events.

We would provide better physical security for the President if there were attacks on the President.

But, as you can see from his comments, we don’t need to change physical security at schools when there are attacks on schools. In fact, to suggest that we should is the definition of insanity.

So apparently not, Pete. Nothing will be different this time.