Of Fractals And Fractures

Many analysts talk about patterns in the data. The pattern stands out when recognized, and as you visualize and explore it, it can become a visual, a fractal that can then merge and grows into a larger shape or pattern. If one stands back far enough, these fractals can take on a different appearance, or meaning. What is a shape, perhaps even a thing of beauty at a small scale, can present a much less benign appearance when seen combining with other shapes at a distance.

Take for instance a crack in a piece of ice, or glass. By itself, it can be a thing of beauty within the crystalline solid of clear ice. However, if enough of them form and join together, you realize that the structure of the ice is compromised and what you are seeing is the shatter-pattern present just before unity disintegrates.

If you have ever seen a sheet of modern safety glass that has shattered, but held structural integrity, you know that it is a thing of beauty. The patterns within the glass are complex and can even add to the beauty by individual pieces reflecting and even refracting light in different ways. It is a beauty that lasts up until even the smallest of external forces knocks a piece out of place. Then, quite often, the whole thing collapses into a pile of pieces.

Right now, I’m trying to figure out if I am seeing fractals around the world, or shatter patterns.

I haven’t written much about Russia or Vladimir lately, as there isn’t much earth shattering going on. It’s mostly the same old, same old as various people and factions jockey for position not only for power now, but to gain more power when Vladimir is gone. Are there those who want him gone? You bet your bippy. Are some of them allies or close to him? Again, safe bet. Are any of them likely to act soon? Not likely absent either an unexpected event or unexpectedly getting all the pieces in place.

As I noted previously, Kadyrov seems to be increasingly marginalized, and may no longer be the kingmaker he once was. Would dearly love to know if the 1,000 troops he had stationed near the Kremlin to support Vladimir are still in place. Behind the scenes there may be some movement to ensure the leadership is proper Russian, and those who are not are not allowed near the true levers of power.

I think I previously described some of what is going on as those in power trying to put up a sheet of frosted glass to hide what is going on as they jockey and prepare for a transition from Vladimir. It is coming one way or another within the next ten years, and the way things are going I would be willing to put a small wager on it being within five years.

Because that sheet of frosted glass may not be frosted, but showing the fractals becoming a shatter pattern.

The death of noted Putin critic Vladimir Shklyarov is a very small part of the frost. For all that it is being officially blamed on pain killers, defenestration has been the choice of the ruling clique. Looming much larger are other issues, such as the economy, lack of skilled workers, and a dwindling ethnic Rus/Slav population. The lack of skilled trades (which is true here too) is hammering Russian efforts to grow on all fronts, along with causing product shortages and transportation problems. The only way they can get needed parts (chips, electronics, etc.) is via European and U.S. companies (among others) supplying them despite sanctions. For all that he seems to have gone off the rails in the last year, the work Kamil Galeev was doing on this subject (as well as his work on the philosophical background to the current war) was excellent. There are links in previous posts, use the search function.

The Russian military has been shown to be a mostly paper bear if you will. Yes, they can put many more people in uniform and throw them into the meat grinder — if they are willing to tank the economy and finish the Rus/Slav ethnic groups as a viable population. The massive stockpiles of materials are in such bad shape it is easier and cheaper to make or buy new from elsewhere. There is reason to believe that the strategic/nuclear forces are in similar shape. Not sure ours are any better to be honest… There appears to be a (semi) organized resistance that is engaging in sabotage against the war and regime. Efforts to control news and information are not working as planned. There is more, but this gives you a good idea of some of the major problems faced. Add in that Vladimir and the top people live in information bubbles similar to our own so-called “elite” and you have leadership that is out of touch with reality at almost every level.

To be fair, China is in much the same boat. I’m not going to get into all the details, but their economy is in very bad shape, they have their own demographic issues, and an increasingly restive set of populations. For all that Winnie-the-Xi is trying hard to eliminate any competition, there remain those that could move against him. Yes, the Chinese are spending like mad on military and seem determined to go after Taiwan. Yes, if we go to war with them right now, I expect most of our Pacific fleet to be on the bottom rather rapidly. For more on this, see the works of Cdr. Salamander who is all over this with very good takes. They are being very aggressive on many fronts, but are not as strong as they try to appear in all of them. One or two major stumbles or bits of pushback, and things may well change rapidly and dynamically.

I’ve noted before that Iran is a powder keg that grows more unstable every day. There are other countries with similar issues and problems, and it is true with them as well.

Even here, the so-called credentialed elite that have been in charge since Wilson are facing change. The existing power structure is fractured, rotten, and I think they are just milking it for as long as they can, even as they try to create a new socialist/communist system to make that go a bit further. Problem is, they didn’t and don’t have complete control of media and information (thank you Elon) and really did not expect the pushback they got in the last election. Again, there are economic and demographic issues, of which the millions in illegal immigrants play a part.

So, am I seeing fractals or shatter patterns? Increasingly, I think the answer is the latter, which makes it a fun and interesting time. Change is scary. Massive change is terrifying. What comes next, here or there? In times of massive change, terrors are oft the norm. The times are indeed perilous for while we avoided the socialist pattern this election, there are more elections to come and the old system will not go down without a fight.

My thought is: keep pushing. Fight for what is right, fight for individual freedom and liberty, fight for the Republic, and most of all, fight for the ideals that defined Western civilization that took man to the moon. Let’s build on that as we have an option right now for a path that will take us to the stars.

Won’t be easy, won’t be fun in many ways, but it can be done. There may be hardship, sorrow, and more. But, in the end, we have the chance to leave a better world to our children. Maybe even we can enjoy it for a bit ourselves.

Fight. Fight. Fight.

I also suggest you pray. I made a change to one of the morning prayers so that it now says “…save the suffering people of Earth from the yoke of the godless authority.” A prayer or three for this world and our own country would not amiss as well (yes, do that too).

Meantime, be active, push your congresscritters and local governments to do what is right. Be prepared. Keep your friends close and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Ahoo Dariyaei’s Revolution

I meant to write about this when it happened, but it is well worth exploring a bit as she may yet see justice. This post on X explores a bit and is well worth reading. In fact, in defiance of short opening paragraphs (rules exist to be broken), here is an earlier post, along with two other good posts here and here.

There are various icons/cartoons/artworks of her in her underwear out there, but I will not link them. I think the intent was well meant, but in my opinion they sanitize the situation and reduce her to a simplistic caricature that demeans her and diminishes her act of defiance.

First, understand the term “morality police” implies that there is a unified office under which all operate. That is not the case, as there are a variety of morality police forces and they are in effect the enforcement arm of the government. There are district morality police, school morality police, neighborhood morality police, etc. Even the most minor of infractions, such as a bit of hair showing under a covering will get you attacked and beaten. You can’t escape from them, if you fight back you and your family will be targeted.

If they arrest you, what awaits is quite often rape, torture, and death. Most are beaten to death, but if there has been resistance or other to raise the stakes, they can be hung. Keep in mind that rape is a tool, and one mandated years ago by the Ayatollah who decreed that female prisoners of any age were to be raped before execution so they would go to hell and not to heaven. No joke. If you want to learn the horrors that await those who defy these animals, there is plenty out there for you to look up. No, not linking as this is something you need to look up and see for yourself, so that it can’t be dismissed as mere propaganda.

Which brings us back to this young lady, Ahoo Dariyaei. Watch the video. She was attacked, fought back, and then they were surprised. Look at her face, at the anger there, as she raised the stakes on them. Then watch her as she realizes where she is at in terms of choices. You see the anger, the fear, and then the determination. She very clearly knows what awaits (rape, torture, death most likely), and steps forward anyway. She makes a choice, and though she is scared, she steps up and out anyway. That is the choice of a martyr, a willing sacrifice.

Her act spread like wildfire, and was such a threat that the mad mullahs did something unusual. She didn’t get the usual, but was instead sent to a mental hospital as they are frantically trying to paint her as mentally unstable (frequent tactic of tyrants of all stripes). If you think she hasn’t been drugged, tortured, and more, you are delusional. Again, you can find accounts of what happens in Iran (and elsewhere) on line, but it is knowledge you need to find for yourself.

Now, one reason for the different treatment is that right now, Iran is a powder keg looking for a spark, and the mad mullahs know this. The majority of the population wants them gone, and only the work of the “morality police” and not-so-secret police are keeping a lid on things — barely. If something happened to prevent support forces from rolling and orders being given, who knows what might happen.

My guesstimate is that it would take the, ah, disappearance of a dozen people or less (maybe even as few as five) for the spark to finally hit the powder. Block deployment of IRGC support forces, and there would be a boom today.

One of the largest factors preventing the boom is our current Regency, which has gone to extraordinary lengths to protect the mad mullahs. And to fund them. This has been Obama policy from the start, in defiance of facts, logic, morality, and more. More than just Israel would be happy to help with making those dozen or so people disappear, though at least one has no real means to project power that far. I would argue that a surgical strike that set the conditions would allow the population to revolt.

Now, the odds of a successful revolution are not good. Think we’ve talked about this before since truly successful revolutions in history can pretty much be counted on one hand. However, keep in mind that the people of Iran have a couple of options for new governance, including a return of the Pahlavi dynasty in one form or another. At least one other option has been discussed if not set-up in exile. This gives them better odds than most.

I think they may try to sit on her for a while, as right now releasing what’s left of her, or her corpse, may well put fuse to powder anyway. Her act of defiance has hit a nerve that is resonating with the people in a big way. There have been others before, and they still are having to spend time and effort to keep those incidents quashed. They realize that this will apply here, in her case, but I think they may also sense that this could tip things, at home and abroad. Maybe.

Which is why I think they will delay, and delay could work for her and the people of Iran. The current Regency is on it’s way out the door. With them gone, options will open up. We do not have to take a direct role. In fact, the best thing for the U.S. to do is simply to stop protecting the mad mullahs, and let nature take it’s course. And perhaps let it be known that we would be glad to recognize a new government truly representing the people of Iran. And it would be a very good idea for us to do so before the mad mullahs get the bomb. Just a thought.

Meantime, if you are a praying sort, consider saying a prayer for Ahoo Dariyaei and the oppressed people of Iran. Do not diminish her to a caricature, or sanitize her knowing and willful sacrifice. She, and the oppressed people of Iran deserve much better than that.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

I’m Not Dead Yet!

Sorry for the silence, but life has been interesting. Yes, I am amazed (and delighted) at the election. Disappointed in some of the down-ballot races, as they can be even more important than the national, but shocked, amazed, and pleased that the level of “fortification” has been (mostly) held down so far. Boy Howdy was a message sent.

Sadly, many are putting fingers in ears and kicking their feet, not only on the left but especially on the establishment right. The selection of a new majority leader in the Senate may well be either the last gasp of the establishment Republicans or the rise of the Sith. Only time will tell and it depends on you keeping the heat on where and when it is needed.

And, yes, there was a great disturbance in the Force and a clear message was sent. For all that, there seems to be a LOT of ‘We’re sorry, the number you have dialed is…’ going on. Keep in mind the establishment does not like us, Trump, or anything to do with change. They are going to fight this tooth and nail, though given the turn-out and message, they are likely to be a bit more discrete than last time. Keep in mind, for them this is Gotterdammerung as it is the end of the credentialed elite. This is all they have known, and they are going to fight like cornered rats to keep on with it despite the vote.

Push them. Hold them accountable. Light them up. Let them complain about being bullied. We’ve tried nice, both within the camp and to other parties. Remember that kicks in the teeth were the response. Screw that. Let them build the bridges and make the steps, we need to be done and save the Republic while we can. Hate to say it, but being nice little milquetoast squishes is not the way. Save the Republic, then look at having them mend fences. Me, I’m done. Let them reach out, as our efforts have only hurt us and kept us from being effective.

No, I don’t like any of the three Senate majority leader candidates the swamp has picked. I’m down with the camp calling for JD to be both President of the Senate and Senate Majority Leader. Plenty of Constitutional and historical precedence and it would make things much easier for the administration. Again, forget being nice — be practical and effective.

Right now, I seem to be trying to come down/fight off the walking pneumonia that is going around. Been down several days now. If not better soon, will head to the doc (reluctantly) and see about antibiotics. I’m tired, I’m dragging, and the normal efforts only seem to be calling a draw. Grrrr. On the other hand, I’ve found a Korean place that may have some good ‘cure or kill’ food I like, and may even have a particular dish I’ve loved for years.

As a very broke undergraduate, I fell in love with a place called “Seoul House” in Chicago may decades ago. A delightful older Korean couple owned it and they introduced me to some wonderful food. Think almost a Korean version of “Miracle Max” and Valerie. She told me, rather gleefully one time, that they cooked “American-Korean” and not “Korean-Korean” as when they opened and did the former, “customer never come back.” The mental image of American customers fleeing into the night screaming and breathing flames has amused me ever since. Thankfully, once they got to know you, they would fix you “Korean-Korean.”

They did one dish in particular, a version of Bibem Nengmyun, that I loved. They called the beef “fire meat” and it was. Which paired wonderfully with the cold buckwheat noodles, the spicy-savory sauce, and pickled vegetables. Forget now what they called the dish, but you had almost every pairing possible (sweet-sour, spicy-refreshing, salty-sweet, etc.) in every bite. And at a price even a very broke student could afford every few months. The egg on top just made it.

Before I break down and go to the doc for antibiotics, think I’m going to go try to burn it out. And if their version of my old favorite is as good as I hear, I may get to take a trip down memory lane in the process. Not to mention having a new place to go when I want comfort food.

Yes, celebrate the victory that was the election. Don’t think that those we are trying to show the door are going to just roll over and go quietly. Expect the unexpected, expect resistance (a la what is happening at the Pentagon, EPA, and elsewhere), and expect the unexpected. Frankly, I’m amazed that Trump is still alive and will not be surprised if they try for him again, possibly more than once. Heck, I will be surprised if they don’t. Watch them to go after Elon and others, try to drive wedges, and join with the grifters right and left to try to hang on.

Press on! Make notes, deal with people and issues as needed, but press on! Just remember, cornered rats are nasty and this bunch ain’t done yet. Be prepared.

More soon, but I feel the need for speed, er, a nap to be honest. Be not afraid, but don’t get cocky kid. The fear is theirs, and a lot more masks just dropped and it is clear there are a lot more of us than of them. Press on.

More soon. “Fight, Fight, FIGHT!”

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Brace, Brace, Brace

Place this post in the category of being yet another one where I hope I am very, very wrong. In fact, it goes into that category where I will be happy to admit I was wrong. May the worst-case pass us by and may the least-case set the norm.

What am I talking about? The upcoming election, of course. Before I get going, some homework for you in regards the upcoming discussion.

I highly recommend going back and re-reading Larry Correia’s excellent takes on the 2020 elections, here and here. There are some other good ones out on that election, and 2022, but those do a very good job of establishing the patterns. Patterns we are already starting to see in Colorado (passwords, multiple other issues, trying to keep Trump off the ballot), Minnesota (multiple votes same voter ID number, etc.), Michigan (Chinese student voting), Pennsylvania (closing lines, voter intimidation, etc.), and, well, there are more.

In some cases, you will hear ‘oh, it’s just the one’ and other excuses, but keep in mind: each of these is a canary in the coal mine. Where there is one, there are usually more. Unlike 2020, the RNC and others are quick to file complaints, lawsuits, and such — but they still don’t stop many of the efforts (cough, Pennsylvania, cough). Oh, and if you watch some of the video from Pennsylvania starting with the two ‘Emergency Services’ people stopping the line. Pay particular attention to the body language of the dark-haired guy: that’s someone hoping for a fight, a chance to use force. Nor is he alone if you look at the other videos and watch the body language. Remember, mouths lie but body language rarely does. Also keep in mind that at least one person associated with a campaign has apparently been arrested in PA for telling people not to leave the line when (illegally) ordered to do so. While it will be an interesting case to follow later, it’s already succeeded in intimidation and more for now. Also remember, process is punishment.

While we are at it, don’t forget this going on in Arizona and elsewhere. Now, for non-domestic shenanigans, please pay attention to this story as this and worse are quite likely to to be happening well outside the Pacific NW.

Now, may I recommend you go read Sgt. Mom (always a good read anyway), David, and then Mike. Then go read Sarah. Win, lose, or draw, I think the odds of the Gods of the Copybook Headings claiming their own are far larger than I would like. I think this will indeed happen if Trump wins by a good margin; I think it will happen if either Trump or Harris win by a narrow margin; and, I think it will really go off if Harris and the cabal win by a large margin.

A bit of history here. The current ‘rule of the elites’ aka the rule of the credentialed elites (technocracy, etc.) has been a thing since at least FDR, though I would argue it really started under the loathsome Wilson. Now, it truly took off under FDR and has been the defacto ruling party for the decades since. Generations of our political class and so-called elite leadership have taken their place in government and associated organizations, grown fat, passed positions and power on to children and even unto grandchildren and great-grandchildren at this point. You see it with Pelosi, Bush, and others. The smart ones have stayed more in the background, and when you start looking at that level it gets most interesting. Government, no-longer-emergent NGOs, think-tanks, and the rest of the incestuous mess.

Now, for something different, a bit of older history. I would argue that most today have no clue how rare (and precious) the peaceful transfer of power throughout history. In point of fact, a very good argument can be made that it didn’t really exist until the founding of America. Even in monarchies, the transfer from one monarch to the next was a perilous time that often resulted in bloodshed. Even when the initial transfer was (relatively) peaceful, it often happened that such was a carefully papered over and the bloodshed only delayed. In such cases, it almost always was more bloody and nasty as a result as well. Remember, entire blood lines oft disappeared in cruel and unusual ways.

Another little bit of history that Sarah, myself, and others have mentioned before: What happened in Israel on Oct. 7 is not an abberration but the historical norm for sacks and similar attacks. Why do I mention this? Because I am worried Kurt Schlichter may have been an optimist. Imagine what happens in the book if there were two or more brigades of terrorists involved. More on that in a minute.

Before I get into things, I am also going to point out that while historical analogies to Rome (or Greece, Egypt, etc.) have some validity for comparison to modern events, personally I think it’s a bit limited. I would instead recommend looking at the French Revolution, a number of the civil wars in Central and South America, and even some of the civil wars/revolutions in SE Asia. I think they are far better than the former as comparisons, and in current events even more so than the Russian Revolution.

The fact is, you have an ‘elite’ that has effectively been in power and ruling in the U.S. for about 100 years. This is the only system the younger members know, and it’s all that counts as the older members are now dead. Even the “elders” right now essentially grew up in the system, so it is all they know. They see their power ending, along with family dynasties and a gravy train that has done them and theirs very well.

What makes you think they are going to give any of that up peacefully? Do you really expect them to say ‘hey, it’s time and we can transition to new opportunities and grow even more?’ Look at history and see how often that has happened, either with governments, people or systems immersed in a particular technology or market (think, cotton, guilds, heck, even the mafia looking to go legit), or even early NGOs (think guilds for just one). Please, name me one time such has happened on a large scale.

Now, look back at the last twenty years and the lawfare waged against those who would rock the boat (Trump is just the latest and most blatant); the efforts at government censorship in defiance of the Constitution (governmental agencies, organizations, etc. working with Facebook, Twitter, etc.); and the efforts to stonewall challenges in the last two elections in particular. Now, look at what the Harris campaign has said about disinformation, rights not being absolute, etc. Do you really think they are just talking? That it means nothing?

The so-called ‘elites’ are a uniparty and they have been building towards this for years. History started before 2016 and since the days of hanging chads, the beat has gotten louder and louder: illegitimate election, electoral college bad, the D candidate got more votes, etc. That hit an initial crescendo in 2016, but I will bet on something much louder this time if the cheat doesn’t work.

We could well see an action as was just seen in France, where Macaroon refused to acknowledge the results of the last election. What happens here, if the peaceful transfer of power does not take place? It really doesn’t matter how or even if there is a shred of legality to anything done, the question will come back to what happens now. What happens when one side knows lawfare and more (and if you think the people killed/murdered in unnecessary dawn raids were not noticed, you are mistaken). What if one side sees it as the end of the life they’ve known, and other other knows it means the end of their lives and that of their loved ones? What happens if the Constitution is null and void.

Do I think the so-called ‘elites’ are stupid enough to go there? Yes. Most live in a bubble and have no clue about reality, history, or much else. They do think the deplorables will just accept, go along, and wear the chains. They have no clue of what is and has been building, and that their place in history is gone.

To make this even more fun and interesting, what happens if in the early days a series of events take place to disrupt voting and disrupt the process after the election? When the election is already (rightly) suspect in many areas? Especially if known groups are the front? What happens if there is an attack like in The Attack?

While Iran is clearly in the lead for countries that wish us, the Great Satan (remember, Israel is the Little Satan) gone. They, however, are not alone as a good case can be made for China, Russia, and even Ukraine more directly interfering in our elections than has already been done. Think they haven’t? Think they aren’t prepared for more? Look at the number of Chinese, Middle Easterners, and others of interest (including Chechen) that are known to have illegally crossed the border.

Imagine you suddenly see the country that you hate the most/is the biggest block to your plans suddenly spinning into a major crisis. You have the chance to indirectly add to the chaos and push things so that they are not a threat to you or yours for years or generations. What are you going to do?

It is a time of great peril, and a time of great opportunity. The former should be obvious to anyone who has any knowledge of history or who has spent time overseas — particularly in countries that are in or just out of internal strife like this. The latter is something that we really need to deny to our enemies, and seize for ourselves. We are at a cusp that sees us poised to become interplanetary, eliminate a variety of health problems, end scarcity of a number of resources, and ensure our survival as a species (at least for now). I want that future for us, and not one of nasty, brutal, and short for all but a self-chosen few.

My advice for now is prepare, keep your head on a swivel, don’t respond to obvious provocations, and keep your things where you can find them in the dark. Pray. I hope some sanity breaks out, but I’m not seeing much sign of it in the data so far. I hope I’m wrong, and it does pop up. Not betting on it though.

The ride is not just going to get bumpy, it’s far too likely to get beyond turbulence and things that toss us around a bit. Hang on and hope for the best, and seriously, pray.

Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Let’s hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Get Out!

If you are in, or even near, the path of Hurricane Milton, my strong suggestion is to get out of there now. You really should have done it a day or two ago, but there is still time. Just remember that it is going to take about three times as long as normal, and that’s going to get worse the longer you wait. Try to see where everyone is headed (N. FL, GA, etc.) then veer off. See what options there are in FL too.

Need to do a longer post on bug out, as there have been some excellent comments and thoughts (and thank you to those who have made them!). Just remember, by the time you decide, you’ve already probably missed optimum. Also, know that decisions depend on good data, which is a point to be discussed soon.

Yesterday’s doctor’s appointment went well overall, just need some willpower to give up some recent indulgences. Today has been busy, but finally got the info I needed for Thursday’s appointment and testing. Reminded them I am allergic to the standard contrast, really hoping they get that info. Also trying a different route to get legal help on the lack of car title transfer, since the first legal aid group not only didn’t call, you can’t get through to them at all now. So, trying a different group.

Did up a jar of Bavarian mustard, ketchup, and my first effort at KUAN ketchup for something were are doing at the Church later this week. KUAN is Kicked Up A Notch, and it is, with a delayed bit of kick that I really like. Will see what others think of it.

More soon, have to go run an errand or two while I can. Be safe out there, be prepared, keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness Pays II: Coms, Data, and Government

One of the most important things for a true disaster is having backup coms. I’m not talking just having walkie-talkies or radios for in-group communications, but multiple ways of getting information from, and to, the outer world.

The disaster in Appalachia is proving that every day. Without alternate coms, people are not getting rescued, not getting supplies, and are unable to let anyone know their plight. With alternate coms, things get done to help them. Have heard of at least one use of a signal mirror, with rumors of more.

In this previous post, some good comments came in on alternative coms. At the risk of sounding paranoid, here are some quick thoughts.

Get Starlink. It truly has been the backbone of restoring coms, data, and more in Appalachia (and elsewhere). Also, check into upgrading your phone as needed to take advantage of satellite com (again, Starlink) for them. Purportedly Elon is looking into a “plan” for those wanting it as a backup so that you only pay when you use it. Meantime, Starlink has made it free to use it from the worst hit areas. That’s leadership and service. Also, Starlink is a lot harder to jam. More on that in a bit.

Look into Citizen’s Band (CB) radio. We used to use it in my neck of Appalachia as a way of coms, sharing news, and even relaying info in emergencies. If someone has a CB, especially a CB base station, and a working phone, you have a lifeline. It also didn’t require a license or other paperwork. These days, it is so far off the mainstream that some jamming systems probably aren’t set for it.

Ham radio has been a backbone of emergency relays and communications since radio first hit the scene. If there isn’t a ham near you, look at helping start a local or school club. It may not be the best for intra-local, but you can reach the world with it and if you have multiple users (not uncommon even in small towns), multiple opportunities to communicate with the wider world.

Corollary: Have one or more radios that can pick-up multiple bands including short wave. Many emergency radios already have them, but get as many radios as you can with them. Even if you can’t transmit, word can still get to you. It worked well in WWII and for a literary reference think of Potterwatch in the Harry Potter books. Be prepared.

Keep in mind that even with generators or batteries, cell phone towers are often the first to go down in a disaster. Don’t count on them, though it is great if they do keep working. However, keep in mind that cell phone jamming systems are powerful, portable, and common. The government (at more than one level) actually does have plans to jam over large areas at need to prevent “unauthorized” communications in a variety of situations. Again, don’t count on them.

Why the talk on jamming and such? Well, here’s a few things. Government, particularly the feds but also far too many states, are at best chaotic neutrals in a true disaster/emergency. In fact, as we’ve seen in Maui (where if you listened to/obeyed LE and the govt, you died) and now in Appalachia, they often tend towards chaotic evil. When you see helicopters grounded and non-governmental groups ordered to stop operations (videos out there), and LE threatening to arrest people for trying to salvage their belongings (again, video out there), you start to see the problem.

Over on X, Dennis Wingo and I had a short (in my case, very as was on a bus bouncing badly) discussion on FEMA and some state agencies. I’m extremely thankful that I did not do a practicum to complete certification to be an On-Scene-Commander given what things have devolved to today. Short version is that the system has rotted and become corrupt. If your thought that the corruption at the border with the various NGOs and such was limited to that part of operations, you are sadly mistaken. Read both chains at the link: the corruption with the NGOs, preferred providers, etc. has firmly taken hold in the main disaster response area.

The best disaster response is LOCAL, then area, then state. The worst thing to come out of Katrina is the current system. The current federal system hates and works by any means to prevent “self-deployment” and initiative, and frankly is dedicated to controlling all information exchange and operations. Even if so doing causes deaths or makes the situation worse. Also keep in mind that it is a very short walk from chaotic neutral to active evil in such a situation.

And again, let me state that FEMA and even some state (sadly even some local based on another video) agencies, will try to retaliate against those who did deploy and get things done before they got there. They can block those agencies from working with FEMA, issue advisories official and unofficial that block grants, and do other things to put them out of business and keep them out of future operations and operational areas. Just wait, watch, and help raise hell when they do it.

Meantime, a good rule of preparedness is not only not to count on the government for anything, but plan from the start to be prepared to work around it at need to ensure your survival and safety. At best it will be a neutral entity, and as we have seen from Maui and elsewhere, it is far more likely to be effectively an enemy. Given how some of the FEMA (and TEMA) people are acting, don’t be surprised if some go missing sooner or later in Appalachia. Remember those strangers who went up Rocky Top…

Oh, as for some of the stories of confiscations, turn-aways, etc. possibly being bot driven: given the videos out there where turn-arounds, arrest threats, and other delights being committed by our “elites” and “betters” in government and LE, the big problem is that the stories are quite believable. We see and hear the actions of government at every level doing those very things. Why wouldn’t we believe that it extends further? When you squander public trust for power, don’t be surprised when people believe the worst of you and don’t trust you.

One more thought: given that I have no faith in the upcoming election, might I suggest that people of like minds start developing networks right now to stay in touch off grid as much as possible? Networks, relays, and such of like-minded might come in handy during unrest, much less a full-up disaster.

You can never have enough redundant coms. Period. Plan accordingly.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Appalachia And Helping Via Charities

The best part of my childhood was spent in NE Georgia in the Appalachian mountains. In fact, it was spent about ten miles outside of the nearest town, which literally had one intersection. I loved when we took a few days, or even a week, to travel up and around, and as such I got to know a lot of small towns which are now in the news.

I do think we went to Biltmore Estates once, but the really neat stuff was elsewhere. It was in the small towns like Chimney Rock, the various falls, mills,forges, pottery places, and such. The towns and places that aren’t there any more.

I’ve seen a lot of posts from people I’ve been told I need to check out, follow, etc. doing engagement farming while slamming the people of the region for not being prepared, prepared enough, prepared with the shit they are selling. Bad enough they are doing that, but engagement farming off of tragedy deserves a sock party at the least. I’m going to stop now before I say more than I should and have to go to confession for it. Suffice it to say, several I will never follow, cite, of share now.

First up, understand the geology of the area. Appalachia is old, old mountains. The Rockies are babes in comparison. The soil is clay or near clay down, with areas of more decent soil as overlay. While there is some very good rock there, there is also a lot of what I was told was schist, that I and others removed a couple of letters from to describe it as it was useless for building or much of anything else.

It is crumbly, and while great for finding low-grade garnets (you might get lucky every now and then on something better) and such, it did not make a good foundation and you really didn’t want to use it for walls or anything else. Load bearing it was not.

There are ridges and valleys, and various pocket “hollers” that could be ovals, could be round, or an odd shape, but were carved out of the ridges. My memories are not what I would like (stupid lightning) but in a lot of the area the ridges run north-south, which makes moving east-west most interesting. Key thing to keep in mind, is that the valleys are usually the best place to build in terms of soil, foundation, etc. They also almost all have a creek, stream, or river flowing in them.

Also, the “hollers” tend to all have an effective bowl shape, and again a stream or such flows out of them. Usually spring fed, but augmented by water that flows down the bowl above or below ground. These feed into those streams in the valleys.

Now, keep in mind the soil conditions. While there is good rock, it is often deep in the valleys, and where it is well above ground you are up on top of the ridges where putting in wells, septic, and other delights is interesting. In other words, it really isn’t ideal on which to build. Or even build into for a number of reasons. So, you have clay/effective clay overlaid by other soil.

So, yes, you do get flooding and the locals (who are not stupid no matter how corporate media and hollyweird portray them) have built above such normal flood plains. Even old mills (and modern tourist hotels) are built 10-20 feet above most streams and such. Again, they were not and are not stupid no matter what you read/hear/see.

Now, interesting historical fact. Rabun County Georgia used to get more rain than almost any other county in the COUNTRY on average except for one county out in Washington State (if I remember correctly), and as such they were used to dealing with water.

To bring things up to date, most places in Appalachia were told to expect five or so inches of rain, winds, etc. What they got was in some cases 20 or more reported inches of rain. In less time than given for the five inches. Rain that both ran off and penetrated the surface layer of soil. What happened to that which penetrated you ask?

Well, it hits the clay/clay-like soil and begins to run off below. This results in mudslides and in water making it’s way down from the top of the ridges over DAYS to add to the flooding. That’s what is happening now. It’s why we still have flooding in areas, slides, and more.

To make things even more fun, in this part of the country you do have paved roads, highways, and more. You also have a lot of dirt “unimproved” roads that may be one car wide, or they may not. I learned to drive on those roads, and let me tell you it is fun. Especially when you meet another vehicle and one of you has to back up to a spot where you can get by each other. Those roads are not wide, they are not designed for this weather, and they are not designed for heavy loads. You really don’t want to know about the “bridges” on them. Yet, they are probably the only way into or out of many areas right now.

What happened isn’t a hundred year flood. It’s much more on a thousand year flood. Perfect storm, lots if immediate rain, storm stalled out and dumping more over several days on top of the initial. None of the plans or systems were designed for this, and something like this was not even considered in worst-case planning.

Now, add to it that few communities put any thought into backup communications. Most LE went to data systems rather than point-to-point systems of old. They are great, efficient, and modern just like the big city — and almost useless when the power goes out and it hits the fan. Repeat after me: centralization is bad as it creates a single point of failure. When you don’t have a backup, don’t have portable cell systems to deploy, don’t have point-to-point as a backup, don’t really have anything as a backup, and you have screwed the pooch for disaster preparedness planning. This is something I am seeing/hearing out of multiple communities.

Nothing will prepare you for having your entire town wiped out, and few will have what it takes to put in an emergency command post away from town with backup coms. Even as a radio and some gear in someone’s garage up on the side of the ridge. That’s foolish don’t you know. If I sound a bit bitter, it’s something I’ve seen everywhere. Keep in mind, politicians overruled the DP folks in NYC and put the emergency command post in the basement of the World Trade Center complex. This has played out in almost every jurisdiction in the U.S. and few have spent the time and even limited dollars to set something up in an existing space without rent even. Because it is not needed, until it is.

Leaving aside that, it doesn’t matter if you have food, generator, and more if a thousand-year disaster washes your house away. That’s when you need advance warning (something lacking in most of the area effected) and a good bug-out plan. There is nothing else you as an individual can do in those circumstances. The people hectoring you for not being prepared enough are full of it. When they do hector you, feel free to drop kick their nuts between their ears and move on.

Now, I have heard of/from some who got hit, but came out okay because of preparedness. Links to these good people later. They have valuable lessons to share that we ALL need to heed.

For now, these folks need help and they sure are NOT getting it from the Government. So, my recommendations are not to give to anything government at any level, the Red Cross, or Catholic Charities. Here are a few I have heard good things about or know some good about.

People on the ground are telling me Samaritin’s Purse is a great choice. Haven’t dealt with them before, but excellent recommendations and word is they are in there, doing, and not taking names.

Operation Air-Drop is another I’m hearing good things about. With roads out like they are, air drop and air mobile are the way to go. If you hear of anyone with a chopper who is getting stuff in, sing out and let’s get them some support. The government isn’t stepping up and I’ve heard, unconfirmed, that the FAA has been stepping on efforts to get private choppers in when they are most needed. Let’s do what we can to support such.

The Cajun Navy has been boots on the ground since Saturday (if not before). Good group and didn’t wait for the government to say go. More on that in a bit.

If you know of a Menonnite group involved, they do a lot of good work. Again, they go in and do no matter what, which pisses off the feds — which makes me think highly of them.

Why my ire towards the feds? Long-time readers know I’ve been through all the classes for being an On Scene Commander and have done a bit beyond that with disaster preparedness. Understand that the government hates anyone and anything that self-deploys and starts helping — even if FEMA and others have not responded (as is the case here). Initiative is NOT allowed, and FEMA and others are known to hammer flat any charity that does so. If you do so, you will never work in this town/with FEMA again. Period dot.

Since FEMA has not stood up for this, and the Feds are sitting on a huge mountain of aid (let’s not even count the military aid at Bragg and elsewhere in the form of field kitchens, tents, graves registration, and other things much much needed), I have no sympathy for them. In fact, if anyone around here has a couple of old deuce-and-a-halfs and wants to load them up with supplies (food, water, supplies, chain saws, other delights) and is willing to take on some of those unimproved roads, I’m betting I can find us a way in to some of the worst hit and underserved areas. Won’t be safe, fun, or easy, but we can do it.

Meantime, support those who are doing the work (and are likely to be hammered by the Feds for so doing). If you are in the area and need help, sing out and I will do what I can to get the info to those who can help. If you know others in the area who need help, same applies. I’m going to look at what I can do, including sending some of my supplies.

Those are my people, and that is my childhood floating away on the flood. I just wish there was more I could do.

Hurricane Thoughts And Preparedness Deficiencies

First, please pray and do what you can for all those affected by the recent hurricane. These scenes from Florida are horrific with islands and even sections inland razed flat. Lots of damage there and north, and my relatives in Georgia say they were spared the worst when the storm jogged east. I know the area around Asheville somewhat, having spend some time in the area. What has happened there is devastating, to be polite.

We were supposed to get worse than we did, but again that jog east spared Indianapolis. We got rain and winds, with gusts staying around 50 mph part of the day, but getting up towards 79 mph later. We lost power last night, and it was out for an hour or two. Not sure as I made the sensible decision (IMO) to go to bed early, after reading by lantern for a bit. When the power came back on, woke up enough to cut off the light and go back to sleep. Have heard that up to 50k were without power around here at one point.

This morning, the power went out again. I used my chef’s stove to heat coffee for the housemate. Brought up another camping lantern to the kitchen, and was getting set to cook English Muffins when the power came back on. Been warned it may go out again a time or two today. Bread is baked and the English muffins are cooked.

The only thing I couldn’t do while the power was out was bake bread. Am starting to look at portable propane ovens as I want something I can use to bake bread and other delights when camping or for emergencies. Want something that can hit and hold 500 degrees, and hold one of my enameled cast iron dutch ovens. If it can do that, it can handle anything else needed. If anyone has any suggestions, sound out in the comments!

Oh, and if it can hook up to a 20lb propane tank, all the better.

Even if you are not in the ESTIMATED path of a storm, be prepared. Florida had warning and it paid off in terms of lives. I expect to see the death toll go up, not so much in Georgia, but in North Carolina and Tennessee as most hit were not expecting it and had little to no time to bug out. Always a good idea to have a “right now” bag ready to go.

Stay safe! Remember, be prepared, be safe, keep your friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

I’m Not Quite

To the point that Instapundit seems to be, but I’m close. And not just on Russian systems and nuclear devices — our own are in a rather parlous state. Nor is my take on Russia just because of the latest launch test failure.

There is a lot I don’t share here either because I can’t confirm it or because while there may be some confirmation I’m having a hard time believing it. This includes internal politics and intrigue in the Kremlin, and in Russia in general. It doesn’t include the sad state of Russia’s much vaunted stockpiles, as that information has been confirmed in every way possible short of personal physical inspection. And while I wouldn’t mind so doing, I do suspect Vladimir and a few others might object to my so doing.

However, it does include Russia’s special weapons and launch systems. And our own. In both cases, launch tests have not gone to plan (cough), launch and other systems have had issues, and one has to wonder about maintenance — which special weapons require even above and beyond launch systems.

Give Russia credit: our “elite leadership” have us stuck with Minuteman systems and have shot down, shut down, or otherwise killed everything that could have replaced it. Russia is working to update it’s launch systems via the liquid-fueled SARMAT II (SATAN II) which we have discussed before. This Ronco missile (it slices, it dices, it can dance, it can sing, etc.) was supposed to replace previous systems. Five years ago. Still ain’t there. See previous discussions for more on it. Heck, there are rumors of a SATAN III in development, but given that SARMAT still isn’t up and running I’m inclined to put that down to marketing for now.

We’ve also talked a bit here before about nuclear weapons and such, and that they can have a bit of a delicate disposition. To be polite. Some of the comments on previous discussions have highlighted such, and come from people with firsthand knowledge.

Officially, I’m still in the twenty percent block; that is, I think as many as twenty percent of the launch systems (other than submarine launched missiles) may work, twenty percent of the warheads may work, etc. I am, however, starting to revise that down a bit. I really don’t want to find out if I’m right, but the smart money is on Russia (and ourselves) blustering but not risking. Now, insanity comes in the form of Iran and other newer members/soon-to-be members of the nuclear club as I think their efforts may well work as they have not been hobbled by test bans and the like. Not a happy making thought.

If anyone uses a weapon in the near future, and it works, betting it is the latter rather than Russia or ourselves.

By the way, if anyone has any info on if the 1,000 Chechen troops supporting Vladimir are still in Moscow at the hotel, please let me know. As I have noted more than once recently, there are some strange things going on in and around a certain red-brick structure.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.