Current Events – Page 4 – The Laughing Wolf

The Only Surprise Is…

Yes, this is from Politico (Europe), a source I don’t normally trust, but it was linked by Stephen Green at Instapundit, and you do want to read it. My only surprise at reading that Poland and other countries are looking at becoming nuclear powers is that the discussions were this open.

One nice thing about sitting and listening is that you sometimes realize that there are conversations going on in the background, very quietly, very privately. At least at first. Sometimes questions get asked, or comments made, that clearly are testing the waters as to what the recipient, or the recipient’s government, might think on a related topic. It is an old dance, but it does have a purpose.

For what it is worth, I suspect similar conversations to those that have been happening in Poland are happening elsewhere in the region. More than just a couple of former countries controlled by Moscow have no desire to end up in that position again with either Russia or any other government. The Eastern European countries are not only looking at Russkiy Mir to their east, but are also having to look West at the increasingly totalitarian EU. To the East, it also hasn’t helped that in addition to pushing for a new Russian empire (Russkiy Mir, of which Ukraine was to be the start, wrote about it at the time) that Vladimir has not been just rattling the nuclear sabre, but waving it around like a drunk. To the West, the EU overturning the results of the election in Romania because they didn’t like the results has not gone over well in a number of capitals (and not just in Europe). The increasing attempts to bring Poland, Hungary, and others to heel over immigration adds to those concerns.

They also are influenced by what happened in Ukraine years back, when Ukraine gave up all the Soviet nukes on it’s territory in exchange for being offered protection by Russia, the U.S., and the UK (Budapest memorandum, not a formal treaty). Non-proliferation, peace in our time! It is worth remembering that sometimes (every time) even with real treaties, political promises by any nation are written with a stick on flowing waters.

Now, add to it that nuclear non-proliferation has been rather openly dying for a few decades now. In addition to the open members, new and old, to the nuclear club I suspect rather strongly that more than one country not openly a member has functional nuclear weapons. I also suspect that if the mad mullahs are not taken out of power, immediately, that Iran will soon be a member of the club as well.

For all that I really would love to live in a world without nuclear weapons, reality is that I/we do and it behooves us to plan and act accordingly. As it was when it was primarily between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R, peace or oblivion resides in the hands of the least stable leader. I would love to be wrong, but I’ve long suspected that it is a ‘when’ and not an ‘if’ a nuclear weapon will be used in anger again.

Now, add in that I suspect Iran is not the only country working hard to become a member of the nuclear club. You don’t have to go through the Manhattan Project to get to be a member, and you don’t have to be as unsubtle as Iran in creating a viable nuclear weapons program.

The fact that Poland has stepped out in the open like this is interesting, and a bit amusing. If you go back and read this post and the linked posts, I got called some names for suggesting that Poland be made a nuclear power and be the northern anchor for a new, non-military, ‘nato’ (lower case deliberate) that can stand as a bulwark against anything from the East as well as against a Muslim/Islamist West. While I think there is still a chance to prevent an effective European Caliphate (England is starting to wake up, but…), I also still very much think we need a Christian bulwark in the East if Western Civilization is to survive.

I also think some open and honest conversations on what is likely to happen when nuclear non-proliferation efforts are fully dead. I loathe Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) as a doctrine; but, we do need to devise some doctrines for handling obvious situations in a world where there are few bars to becoming a member of the nuclear club. This needs to happen at the staff levels so that when higher finally realizes there is a problem, there are already some well-thought options (some maybe even tested) available to them.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

No, It’s What ‘Can You Do’…

Good post up at The Conservative Woman in regards British weakness, feckless leadership, etc. in the face of Iranian advances that will put London within reach of conventional- and nuclear-armed missiles quite soon unless something is done (see here). The question is raised there ‘what do we do’ in regards that, when the real question is ‘what can you do?’

Short-term, the answer is not much at all. You have a leadership class — of which Starmer is a figurehead, a meat-puppet — that hates Great Britain, the Empire, etc. and is determined to end it. The Chagos treaty is just the latest in efforts to divest the last vestiges of the empire, with Hong Kong being the zenith of same. They have gutted the military and done everything they can to make England to be easy pickings. If you are just starting to wonder why, you may be too late to the game.

I need to do a full answer to the post in question, especially as I notice what I regard as some rather gross inaccuracies. For example, in talking about the Strategic Defense Initiative (calling it ‘Star Wars’ reveals much about the author IMO) using nukes to ensure kills in boost stage. While I need to tread carefully, I think I can safely say that I don’t know of any serious effort to use nukes.

Nevermind that having them in orbit is a violation of treaty (ho hum, yet another treaty violation), but even worst is how many would be needed against widely dispersed targets. Also, nevermind that it is amazingly easy to mess up a rocket booster of any type, and the same can be said of many nuclear weapons themselves. I would suggest learning about “Brilliant Pebbles” (and for something older, look at Pournelle’s ‘Project Thor’ aka orbital crowbars) as well as the close-in defense systems (that we used to have) for protecting our land-based missiles.

For all that I have some issues (technical, strategic, otherwise) with some of the framing and background, there are a number of good questions and thoughts raised in the article. Check it out and sound off, there or here.

Wish I Had Said…

“Guano-psychotic” is such a wonderful term, and one I wish I had come up with. Go check out this one from Ian at The Lawdog.

Couple Of Good Reads

Lots going on in the world, but not a lot of time for writing. Besides, why reinvent the wheel when others have already done some very good work?

First up, Francis Turner has a very good analysis of the recent Japanese elections. I’ve been keeping an eye on it, but he is very familiar with things and explains things beautifully. Go read.

Second, Behind The Black has a good post on what I will flat out call a very troubling development at NASA. I’m not happy to read this, and believe it a huge step backwards.

If I come across anything else, will add it here but the day is a busy one and I need to get back to my classwork/homework. More soon I hope.

Iran Thoughts

Iran has been a powder keg for a while now, and I’m truly surprised efforts to end the rule of the mad mullahs didn’t kick off a year or so ago. So I was unsurprised when things did start to blow up and an effort begun to bring back a return of the Shah. Sadly, I now think that may fail and do so because the President did not keep his word. This has implications far beyond Iran as well.

First, let me state yet again that I do not believe we should put boots on the ground. While it would be great to get rid of the mullahs, it is something that has to come from inside, and there are hundreds of thousands who have taken to the street — and tens of thousands who have died. Our support of that needs to be logistical and via eliminating certain infrastructure, preventing troop movements, and related.

Someone is already doing that, on a limited scale, and I have an idea who is doing it. That said, more is needed and we can do such via airpower. Some very good thoughts are over at The Lawdog Files here, here, and here. Think I linked to them before, but doing so again as they are good reads. But, again, and again, and again: freedom can’t be brought in or imposed from the outside via boots on the ground, it has to come from the inside.

Thing is, President Trump told the Iranian public that he had their back, to take to the streets and if the regime tried or started to kill them, he would strike. That was weeks ago and as I said before, the deaths appear now to be in the tens of thousands. Machine guns and more are being used; militia from Iraq have been brought in to help control certain regions; and, Arabic troops/mercs have also been brought in. The revolution is now in danger of failing, at least in my opinion.

Something to consider is this: at the start, when Trump first called for them to take to the streets, America was in a good position both to help and to have a very good relationship with the Shah and others in the new government. Now, we do not and will not enjoy such as the people are remembering that America’s word really isn’t worth much in the Middle East. As the blood flows thicker and deeper, the willingness to trust and work with the U.S. is dropping. If the revolution does succeed without the promised American help, the relationship with the U.S. is going to be rather cool — and there will be plenty of countries helping push that.

Worse, right now the mullahs feel emboldened because Trump/the U.S. hasn’t kept it’s word. They see the desire to negotiate as weakness. If the revolution fails and all they see are games being played with drone tracks, they are going to take that as a go signal to speed up efforts to restore nuclear development and go nuclear, as well as to go all in on terrorism by proxy. The downsides are severe, and the damage to the reputation of both Trump and the U.S. can’t be overstated. It will likely end effective foreign policy for this administration.

I have suspicions as to what has been going on, and I truly hope that Qatar does not have its hooks into certain members of the administration. Sadly, there is a lot of damage done right now regardless of the source. A promise was made, a red line set, and nothing done when the mullahs gleefully crossed it. There is still time, but a lot of damage has been done and it will take more than words to undo it.

What is happening is an unforced error on the part of the administration. One that has serious implications for stability and peace in several parts of the world. If the mullahs fall, it changes the calculus on Russia/Ukraine, it cuts a number of nasty terrorist groups off from major funding and operational assistant (and remember some of them were operating out of Venezuela), and it ends one of the most serious nuclear threats out there. If they don’t fall, and we don’t act, all of that gets put on steroids and we will be lucky if it only redoubles.

Not words I thought I would be writing when this started, but words that need to be said. I think Trump is getting some very bad advice and I have questions about the intel he is getting on operations and the numbers of Iranians killed by the mullahs. It would have been far better if he had kept his mouth shut and not made a promise he wasn’t going to keep. There is still time to turn things around, but it is fast running out.

Artemis

I’m actually hoping the upcoming mission slips not just to March, but into April. Not a detailed post, but here are a few highlights.

First, Congress mandated out-of-date tech and other delights to keep certain companies and production lines open (and donations to politicians flowing). Old tech is not necessarily bad: I almost got to co-pilot a Ford Tri-Motor once (lost out to someone with a bit more seniority) and it was a fun and amazing flight. It works, but no one is trying to repurpose the Ford into a hypersonic aircraft, which is not a bad analogy for all the Shuttle-derived tech required by Congress for Artemis.

Second, there have been issues identified — and fixed in record time. Sorry, having worked at NASA as a contractor I’m not fully buying it. If I haven’t already done so, remind me to tell you about how a NASA safety fix that wasn’t tested ended the first tethered satellite system mission pretty much at the start. Short version is that I wouldn’t ride in that capsule. Your mileage may vary.

Third, the tech involved does not do well with cold weather launches. Challenger. That really should be a period dot thing, but…

Fourth, even if you fixed every issue above, Artemis is unsustainable. The price per launch is beyond ridiculous and is a good example why America would be much better off with NASA out of the launch business. Heck, out of the manned space flight business period. NASA needs to focus on it’s stated mission, which is advancing aerospace technology, not trying to do and control everything related to space (and they and certain political leadership seem to like to ignore the whole aviation side of the picture).

I am very concerned that if Artemis launches this month, that there are going to be significant issues potentially up to the loss of vehicle and crew. I hope I’m wrong, and would love to eat crow on this one. That said, there are echoes of Apollo 1 and Challenger for me, and that makes me very concerned.

UPDATE I: Since I wrote this, a fuel leak has pushed the launch into March. A fuel leak in the same area as the first mission. I suspect that April may be optimistic as fuel leaks have been an ongoing issue for three or so years. See this article for more info. More than ever I think Artemis and the decisions behind it by Congress are going to give us another space disaster. One that could easily have been avoided.

DCA Almost Final

My apologies for not writing more (and sooner) but I will just say (again?) that the theology course I’m taking is like drinking out of a fire hose. While it will be a few weeks yet before the final report is out on the DCA crash, the items that are going into the report are now released.

I’m going to start with the Safety Data report, which frankly is damning to the FAA and now-former tower management. Short version is that DCA has had problems for years, including the perception that reporting issues would lead to retaliation. There are multiple recommendations in the report for the FAA, and a few for the Army, as leadership at both agencies (and the DoT) was abysmal.

The human performance report is a good overview of the human operations and interactions with onboard technology that is supposed to help prevent collisions. If you want to understand what was happening in each place, the information available, factors that limited the use of technology and prevented adequate warnings, and more, this is it.

The report notes early something I had “seen” early on: the call-out of the CRJ operated by PSA (Piedmont) for American Airlines lacked critical information. There were several planes in the area called out by the controller, and there was no way for the helicopter crew to know which one was being pointed out. There is evidence that they mistook another aircraft for the one they were supposed to be watching. I may not have many hours as a pilot, but every time I had other traffic called out it always specific, as in “you have X aircraft at your Y o’clock high/low/same (altitude). SOP was to locate, then call back and read-back “I have X aircraft in sight at Y o’clock high/low/same” to verify the information.

As a side note, so long as the object was moving relative to you, life was good. It was when things were a dot that you needed to act as the lack of movement meant it was coming straight at you. Therefore you dove or climbed and/or changed course as well. Doesn’t matter if it was a bird (birds can take out a plane and/or pilot) or a plane — by the time it starts to get visually larger it usually is too late to avoid.

There is a lot more in that particular report, and it is well worth reading carefully. As I said earlier, the only people who come out of this pretty much in the clear are the Piedmont crew who were never warned about the helicopter.

Here is the helicopter operations report, and the medical report. On the latter, the controllers on duty that night should have recourse against management for failing to do the proper drug and alcohol tests. While there is no evidence of such, the failure to follow SOP unfairly puts a cloud over them as they have no way to prove they weren’t impaired. On the former, it is worth reading and re-reading. There are a number of issues with Army aviation leadership and operations that need to be addressed. One of which is that a number of the helicopters in the unit involved had altimeters that were/are not giving correct altitude. There’s more, but the altimeter issue is an ongoing major issue that needs to be addressed.

The airplane systems group report is a good primer on ADS-B and collision avoidance — and the limits of technology. This is a good read and I suspect a number of changes may come out of it.

Now, keep in mind that the area around DCA is some of the most congested in the United States. Fact is, there have been a number of efforts to shut down Reagan because of volume, runway length, location, and other issues. Congress has not only prevented closure, but expanded normal operating hours over the expert advice given it simply because it is convenient for them. And make no doubt it is highly convenient. I’ve flown in and out of there more times than I can count because it is right there at the Pentagon, close to downtown DC, etc.

Also keep in mind that there is a lot of military traffic in the area. There have been efforts made to limit military traffic, primarily helicopters, from the area around DCA because of the congestion and safety issues. Those were ignored/overridden on the basis of national security (and convenience as well).

In an ideal world, the helicopter should have been to one side and gone behind the Piedmont CRJ at a safe distance. It should not have been coming up under it as it was landing.

The NTSB has already heavily hinted/indicated that a majority of the blame for the accident resides with the FAA, and I think they are correct. The lack of leadership, poor management (at all levels including the DoT) failed to address a number of issues, technical and human. I would put among them the long-standing failure to upgrade critical systems, a push for DEI over competence in hiring, and other efforts that inhibited recruitment. When you look at all the problems, the FAA failed at every level.

But, there is plenty of blame to go around. I suspect the controllers are going to take a few hits even with staffing/overwork as mitigating factors; and, the instructor pilot in the helicopter is probably going to take a hit or two despite the fact that without an accurate altitude neither he nor the instructee had no way of knowing they were not at the right altitude. Those of you who know aviation also already know that even if the instructee did make one or more mistakes, the failure to correct them (in time) lies with the IP.

As for all the wild speculation that the instructee kamakazied the Piedmont CRJ; that she failed to obey the commands of the IP; that she wasn’t competent as a pilot and shouldn’t have been flying; and all the other junk: the cockpit recorders and radio transmissions (nor her official background) in no way support those claims. In fact, if you look at the voice recordings, it sounds like a fairly typical learning flight. The IP issued guidance as needed, encouraged the instructee, and seemed to have no major issues with the instructee. Yes, the instructee was green in many respects, but that’s sorta the point of doing training flights. And again and again, without accurate altimeter readings in such a congested area bad things are going to happen.

From the reports, along with photos and diagrams released by the NTSB, it is quite possible that the helicopter and the CRJ may not have seen each other until the last second (if at all). The only people who seem to have done everything right and by the book are the crew of the CRJ. When finally did get warning, they did their best to avoid the crash. It is in no way their fault that they were not able to do so.

So, again, I suspect that the FAA is going to get the lion’s share of the blame (deservedly) for failures of leadership and gross incompetence; whether they get called out or not, DoT should catch some of that too; Army Aviation as a whole, along with senior leadership above them, bear a good bit of blame as well; the controllers on duty will be called out; and, it is likely that the IP will take a hit as well. Not named, though they should be, will be Congress who not only continued operations at DCA but expanded them against all informed advice.

Right now, one of my hopes is that the efforts begun in the wake of the crash to finally modernize the FAA systems using Commercial Off The Shelf technology (COTS) are indeed still underway. Elon and some of the DOGE team were providing advice and assistance and I hope his leaving government did not hamper those efforts (which a lot of entrenched interests in DC are opposed to since COTS doesn’t allow for as much graft and power). I also heard that recruiting efforts for controllers and other critical positions had DEI and other hobbles removed and there were a number of people looking to enter the field. Again, I hope that is continuing as it was and is desperately needed.

I agree with the NTSB assessment that this was one hundred percent avoidable. Had FAA management addressed issues and concerns instead of retaliating against those pointing out problems, this would never have happened. If Army aviation and other entrenched interests had not kept the helicopter route open despite strong advice not to, and if they had properly functioning aircraft, this would not have happened. If Congress hadn’t kept DCA open and expanded operations, this would not have happened. I could go on, but what happened is far more the result of an absolute failure of multiple leadership on multiple levels than anything else.

One of the other things I hope does come out of this is improved collision avoidance systems. We need what we have to work, and part of that lies with setting minimums and standards for lower altitudes. We need newer systems that can and will integrate and operate as noted in the report(s). We also need to be sure military and civilian systems will interoperate, especially in areas such as DC and DCA where there is heavy traffic in close proximity. Again the reports make some good points on that.

I hope some good can come out of this tragedy. I also hope that the final report, along with these reports and previous releases, will put to rest the unfounded and reprehensible speculations of a deliberate crash and/or an out-of-control helicopter trainee.

Quick Cold Update

For those wondering, I did indeed survive the storm and the clean-up. Mostly. Looks like we got 10-12 inches here at the house with a fair bit of drifting. I did do a bit of snow shoveling (with the blessing of my cardiologist) and per agreement kept it slow, careful, and watchful for signs of overdoing it. I was very glad the housemate took over the shoveling duties Monday afternoon once he got up (he works night shift) as I was feeling it on a muscular level.

Since then, we’ve had several days of below-zero lows (-8 to -10 here at the house) with highs in the teens. I did get out yesterday for some quick errands and a meeting with my priest in regards something I’m learning to do. I did have to pick up more distilled water but am still good on most things.

I use distilled water for making beverages, cooking, and drinking. It is also used in the new humidifier for my room. I had based my reserves for the storm on the ‘normal’ use of the humidifier, which turned out to be insufficient when the storm hit. As the temps dropped and the snow fell (and the heat runs almost constantly), the humidifier went to continuous max operation. That proved to be about five times normal usage, which meant I needed to get more yesterday. That proved problematic as my regular store was out and steam-distilled water was hard to find. Got it, and stocked back up, but lesson learned.

For those still paying attention, the NTSB is getting ready to release it’s final report on the DCA crash. As I suggested at the start, there is plenty of blame to go around and the NTSB is mincing no words that a majority of it lies with the FAA. The only people to come out clear are the Piedmont pilots who were NEVER warned of the helicopter approaching them. I’m going to link to some of the recent briefings released here soon and go over what some of them mean. I will note, especially for those who bayed for the blood of the helicopter pilot being instructed, that while she and the IP did make mistakes, one of the things noted by the NTSB is that the helicopter itself — and others within the battalion in question — were not registering an accurate altitude. This indicates battalion and higher issues. It is also why both the instructee and the IP were consistently 100 or more feet higher than they thought they were, with tragic results. Again, more soon with links as it is a sad tale that was indeed 100 percent avoidable that had been known and squashed by FAA leadership multiple times.

Also have some thoughts on Iran. I do wish that action had been taken on day 4 of the uprising, when POTUS urged them to take to the streets. Revolutions have a rhythm, and I think much bloodshed could have been avoided if there had action rather than just words. As it is, I think the revolution can still succeed, but I think the delays in promised actions will change the flavor of things to come in ways that could have been avoided. As it is, read here, here, and here for some good background and takes. I’ll have more soon I hope.

Also, while I think a lot of us saw this coming, do read this in regards the first Minneapolis shooting. Everything there (and in a few other cities) has been rather carefully planned and fully funded. One hopes that DOJ really is looking into this.

Lots to write about that I hope to get into soon, but: still recovering from the respiratory infection; dealing with a lot of snow and some serious cold weather; and, my seminary course is like trying to drink out of a firehose. It is also not quite as “asynchronous” as I had thought, which may ultimately be a good thing.

More soon. Be prepared, keep your friends and family close and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Quick Addendum: Picking up grenades to throw back at people rarely works out well unless they forgot to pull the pin (that does happen). Also, never try for CS or smoke grenades unless you have a heat-resistant glove on as they are exothermic and have been known to cause fires and burn flesh. Knowing is half the battle, and a lot better than half a hand.

A New Free Europe

I had really intended to write about the dangers of the civil war certain progressive elements are pushing (as I mentioned here yesterday; and I think Sarah is both very wrong and somewhat right here and Tom Knighton hits many of the points I want to raise), a chance exchange on X this morning with The Diplomad has pushed me to expand on some previous work.

If you are one of those who doesn’t remember the Blogosphere of old, and did not read The Diplomad, you truly missed out. He is posting far more on X these days than on his blog, but I have always found his work to be insightful, well-reasoned, and a pleasure to read. He is one of those wonderful people that even when you don’t agree with him, you are moved to think and consider all he has to say. Oh, and you also really should read of some of his adventures in interesting places working for State.

This morning, he was kind enough to make a one-word comment in response to a comment I had made to a post of his. This has led to an exchange where it turns out we are on the same page as to the need for a bulwark in Eastern Europe to contain a fallen Europe and to defend against other incursions along the old Muslim invasion routes.

I’ve talked a bit about this before (here for a start, several linked posts within for those interested). If I were one of those well-dressed apparatchiks in DC, I would already have a catchy name with logo and full marketing for this concept. Seems that is what sells and gets things considered in DC; but, I’ve been thinking a good bit more on issues of substance instead of marketing. Right now, I want to lay out my current thoughts in the hope that I might entice The Diplomad into sharing some of his.

Background: England has already fallen and even if every Labor/Torrie is voted out today I fear it is too late to save. I’ve written about this in previous posts, and see no way England as we used to know it survives given demographics. Even if they do mass deportations, it will get bloody and what comes out will not the be England we knew, but something else. France is in much the same boat with many of the same political calculations on the part of ruling politicians. Germany has committed economic and demographic suicide and is fighting being given the political equivalent of narcan by its citizens. Switzerland is iffy, though I have not discussed it before. I am worried about Spain, but would invite The Diplomad’s thoughts as he is the expert there. Italy could still save itself but is hamstrung by local bureaucracies and the EU. The Netherlands could hold out for a bit, but demographics alone will see it swamped fairly quickly. Belgium is pretty much lost already. I could go on, but that covers major and some minor players. For one take on the Muslim conquest of Europe, check out Tom Kratman’s book Caliphate. No, I don’t get anything if you buy the book, other than satisfaction. I can see something like this within the next 20 years.

Background II: Per previous posts, NATO is committing suicide at the behest of the EU bureaucracy, which is primarily the WEF progressive crowd. There is already strong sentiment within the U.S., including within defense circles, to withdraw from NATO. I support this, which may or may not bias my analysis to some degree. NATO was valid and necessary for many years; however, it has outlived its usefulness and has become a strategic and economic liability to the U.S. Given that the EU is twisting things to engage treaty obligations against our own interest (and that of the EU members IMO), we need to look at our participation.

Background III: For all this came out of a discussion of a “New NATO” what I am proposing should not be a military alliance. Rather, it should be an economic and civilizational alliance that focuses on unleashing the intellectual, technical/scientific, and skills-based resources within a framework of Classical Western thought and processes with a focus on individual liberty. Much like the U.S. was originally founded. Within that, there should be a component to help the member countries to develop and field the ability to defend themselves against any incursions from West or East.

Personally, I see Poland as the linchpin for this effort. I admit, I have a soft spot for them given their role in ending the godless authority that was the USSR, as well as other anti-communist efforts. They have had the political resolve to stand up to the EU bureaucrats, which speaks highly of them. Geographically, they are in a unique position: it can either be a highway for invasions or a block against same. It has been both at different times in the past. Ports on the Baltic allow some Sea Lines Of Communication (SLOC), which is essential for trade. Yes, those can be compromised (see Larry Bond’s book Cauldron for a fairly thorough analysis of such, and no I don’t get anything if you buy it) but real trade depends on shipping, and they do have the ports needed. It has produced numerous scientists, engineers, composers, and more over the centuries. It also has a fair bit of resources.

To go back to the ports for a moment, those also have another use in this context. We really don’t want England and France’s nukes falling into the hands of a new Caliphate. I hope (possibly against hope) that we have already drawn up plans and are working to plant the seeds that when things go fully south in England that we can get their nukes out. Part of this should be encouraging truly loyal members of the RN to either bring them to us (not likely currently) or to a fairly neutral third party. Poland and it’s ports fit that bill. Same holds true for France. Air bases in Poland could accept flights carrying weapons to safety. As for people flying to safety, I would recommend extreme vetting and not allowing any such refuges citizenship or voting status for about three generations. Finally, when I proposed that if any member of this new alliance needed to be made nuclear to deal with nuclear threats, I recommended Poland in part because that is not something they want or desire. If you don’t get why that is important, think on it a bit and look at those countries openly seeking nukes as you do so.

In the center there is Hungary. A beautiful country with a rich heritage that has also stood up to the EU bureaucrats as well as to past Muslim invasions. While it does not have seaports, it does have extensive river ports and operations that link it with several of its neighbors. River traffic is still a much larger component of trade than many still realize. There have been some criticisms raised in regards their relationship with Russia; but, I think some of those are misplaced and most else can be dealt with in the course of creating the alliance.

Next is Romania. It has seaports, river ports, rich resources and a lot of good people. It’s navy may be small by some standards, but those within it are proud and professional. If it can remain free (and keep in mind the EU vacated their elections when they didn’t like the results) they have everything they need to become a powerhouse, possibly even on the world stage. They have not resisted the EU bureaucracy as well as Poland or Hungary, but have blocked a number of things. Creating an alliance of which they are a part could give them what they need to take themselves where they want to go.

Next is Bulgaria. Mountainous enough to prevent extensive river traffic (and many north-south rail lines), but it also has ports on the Black Sea. It sits astride many of the invasion routes used by Muslim armies in the past, which has kept it from the development experienced by more peaceful lands. Again, a lot of potential here that could be developed by the Bulgarians if they were part of such an alliance. More on that later perhaps.

Now, to the west of Romania and Bulgaria are Serbia and the Balkans. These too are potential candidates for such an alliance, I would note that bringing them in not only provides strategic depth, but additional SLOC options for trade and defense. If Italy doesn’t fall, it would allow the Adriatic to be a secure trade zone both between alliance members and potential overseas partners and customers.

Going back to Larry Bond’s novel Cauldron and to Kratman’s Caliphate, it would be nice if Spain could hold as it would make the Straights of Gibraltar less of a choke point for international trade. I would also note that if Denmark were smart, it would make any trade or sale of Greenland contingent upon support to resist a European Caliphate. For all that Denmark has shown some awareness of the problem, they have not taken it seriously nor posed any real resistance to the EU bureaucrats. If Denmark falls, the Skagerrak is at best “iffy” for trade; and, if Sweden falls it will close it to effective traffic.

Frankly, I see Sweden as 50/50 on whether it falls or not. The politicians and public seem to want to deal with the migration issues; but, the super-woke bureaucracy is dug into the body politic like a disease-laden tick. Digging that out and making real change will take more than many are willing to give I think. That said, it could be yet another reason to try to get them into such an alliance.

I would also consider the Baltic states as potential members, though they are a good part of the reason I think this should not be a military alliance. Members can make self-defense treaties between themselves, but should not be able to make treaties that obligate others. The purpose behind the alliance is to promote economic growth, which will allow them to defend themselves as they see fit. Pushing economic and individual liberty is a key part of this, as such always results in growth at many levels.

Finally, such an alliance should look at Finland. Ports, resources, and a lot more. It would also help secure the Baltic, and prevent a European Calipahte from being able to do as much via sea power, economic or military. There are also some other financial factors, but we may explore those another day.

As I’ve typed, I’ve had the idea for a name for this initiative to pop into my head: the Free Europe Initiative. Encouraging economic and other growth while advancing the concepts of freedom and individual liberty that are the bedrock of Western Civilization would provide not just a light for continental Europe, but potentially to the whole world. In a world gone mad, such will be much needed.

Just the rough outline for now. I’ve got some other thoughts already in place, but this needs more fleshing out. More soon I hope.

Catching Up

Sorry to be offline for so long, but life has been busy and even a little interesting. I was a small part of multiple different services Christmas Eve including our “midnight” service that runs into Christmas Day (old calendar). We’ve had a number of weekday services as well (‘Tis the Season) and they have kept me busy.

I’ve also started back into (hopefully) regular workouts and even took advantage of a free session with a personal trainer to tweak and add to the workout. My goal is to try to meet with them twice a month to get the most out of my time in the gym.

Unfortunately, I’ve also been reminded not to eat casseroles without double-checking the ingredients. It was only a bite, but that was enough to make yesterday (and even today) not particularly pleasant. If I didn’t mention it before, I’m one of a growing number of people who have developed an issue with a protein in garbanzo beans. Enough of a problem to have sent me to the hospital before.

Yes, I do have more thoughts on Iran and more. It is amazing how Venezuela, Iran, China (and Russia), and the paid protests here are all linked. If the mad mullahs fall (and I hope they do), it knocks the legs out from under more than one country and a large number of not-nice groups. More on this later, but you really need to look at all the work being done by DataRepublican (link in upper right) in that regard.

China may well be the biggest loser out of all as changes come to the world. Their much vaunted military tech failed spectacularly in Venezuela (as did the Russian, which was older); their oil shenanigans have taken quite a hit; and, there is more including some interesting reporting on their true demographics. All of which is having a very negative effect on their Belt and Bend Over initiative (they secure their partners with the belt, which makes it much easier to then bend them over). Add in all that is coming out about their funding of the anti-ICE and other protests, manipulation efforts via Tik-Tok, and other delights, and it is clear why it is good that Trump and company are moving to deal with them, even if indirectly.

BTW, did anyone notice any corporate media coverage of the fact that one of the tankers we seized headed to Venezuela was full of Iranian drones that could hit the Panama Canal, Guantánamo Bay, and other military bases? Long way to go with Venezuela, but taking it out of the equation just made us exponentially safer. I strongly suspect a lot of C&C for various terror cells and terrorists sent into the U.S. over the southern border ran through there, and I hope we can get some good intel as part of the process.

Finally, be careful out there. The idiots are back pushing for a civil war and it would be best for all if we could avoid it. Many thoughts on that, hope to be able to get to them soon.

For now, be prepared and be safe. Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. I see a LOT of cause for optimism, and unfortunately a lot of chances for idiots to mess things up in their grasping, gasping, corruption. Let’s push on the optimism and do what we can for that better future.