Aviation/Aerospace – Page 3 – The Laughing Wolf

IRBM Redux

So Vladimir decided to raise the stakes in his ongoing series of threats to go nuclear. What he did was smart on several levels, and incredibly stupid on several more. Let’s take a minute to look at this with a calm if jaundiced eye.

Almost immediately upon starting his “three-day-war” against Ukraine, Vladimir has been threatening to go nuclear. It was a way to try to keep the West (primarily but not exclusively NATO) out of the fray and to discourage any and all help for Ukraine. Frankly, I can’t blame him.

Let’s face it: that is the only threat he has. Even in the massive information bubble in which he and other top leaders (and not just in Russia — look to the last election for great examples here) reside. He is in a silo in a bubble in which bad news, much less reality, rarely enters. For all that, I suspect that he had to know just how much of a paper bear the Russian military had become.

Oh yes, they have all these massive stockpiles of tanks, guns, artillery, etc. Pretty much all of which have rusted to the point it is cheaper and much easier to make new ones than to try to repair/refurbish the rusted hulks. Never mind that many of those items allegedly stockpiled either never existed (corruption) or had been stolen/sold (desperation/survival, plus corruption). If you haven’t been reading my stuff before, I and others have pointed out that many items, including very sensitive systems, had been sold on the black so that troops and workers could eat and survive within an extremely corrupt system.

I’ve also written before about how Vladimir is much like a necromancer in fiction: once the snake has been tossed on the table, you can’t just let things slide. To give in to nuclear blackmail is to ensure worse for the future and our children. It has to be dealt with, firmly, or others will take up the staff as well. Our problem has been the feckless and incompetent Biden Regency, which is Obama III. Keep in mind it was Obama who abrogated our responsibilities to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum when Vladimir decided to take Crimea.

Yet, Vladimir continues to raise nuclear as an option because he has nothing else. He can’t mobilize the manpower numbers needed, and of those who have been brought in (forced in even) are untrained, ill-led, and ill-equiped. There is no realistic way for him to mobilize even a fraction of the numbers needed for full combat, and if he tries the economy crashes hard given how many critical positions are already unfilled. Train drivers (-2,500) are just the tip of that iceberg. Never mind that well over a million of the ‘best and brightest’ of the younger generations decided to go expat over the invasion. Brain drain is a real and dangerous thing. The only way he is getting the arms he needs to any degree is by purchasing (one way or another) from other countries and manning by using foreign troops (hello Kim!).

Now, here’s the problem for him: are the strategic forces in any better shape than any other part of the Russian military (or space program for that matter)? Lots of little things have popped up over the last couple of years. Also, a few larger ones. When Biden visited Ukraine a while back, it appears that Vladimir tried to stage a test launch of a Sarmat/Satan II ICBM as a show of force and threat. That didn’t happen, and it appears it may have been rather spectacular at the launch site. Also, keep in mind the corruption that still plagues the regular military was also part-and-parcel of the strategic forces as well. Of all the parts, systems, weapons delivered, how many were real? Also keep in mind that Sarmat was supposed to have replaced all other ICBMS as much as ten years ago. Hasn’t happened. There are reasons for that.

Which brings us to the recent IRBM launch. Here’s a decent article on the system itself. For those looking at pedigree, Oreshnik derives from Rubezh, which derives from Yars, which in turn dervies from the Topol if I remember correctly (Topol minus a stage I think). Keep in mind, that the USSR was always good at ‘one-offs’ in terms of development. They could, would, and did come up with ‘showcase’ projects that were (esp. given tech limitations) quite impressive in their own way. Where they flat out suck has always been in production. I suspect that is a large part of what is happening with the Sarmat. It’s happened on other military systems before, and it’s worth remembering that on the civilian side so-called ‘identical’ Soyuz and other space vehicles could not exchange parts because each was essentially a custom build.

The only thing they ever seem to have been able to mass produce reliably that had any complexity (cough) was the AK. They even had to sub out mines and more to the satellite countries. Heck, some of the best AKs came from the satellite countries to be honest.

For me, I am very interested in the Re-entry Vehicles and the reported sub-munitions. Especially given the reported Mach 11 speeds on terminal.

Regular RVs tend not to be very accurate by modern standards, having at best about a fify-foot CEP. To be honest, Soviet CEP sucked and at one point was up to ten miles. They improved that, but to make up for ongoing issues used much larger warheads. Here, the use of sub-munitions seems to imply either an intended conventional use or that multiple weapons may be needed to make up for other shortcomings. Could be off on that, but it was the first thing that popped into my mind. The other thing that did pop up after that was deploying multiple weapons to take out an extended column (or fortifications) in a gap or line.

It is also rather unprecedented to give the world (and your enemies) this good a look at the operations of a system allegedly in development. Not to mention the chance to recover pieces/fragments/chunks for analysis. Yep, some have already been found and I guarantee the tech intel types are salivating at the chance to examine them.

And speaking of stupid-on-steroids, threatening a U.S. base on another country’s soil isn’t bright. That’s not something that can be ignored (at least by competent people, which seem to be in short supply under the Biden Regency). It sets the stage for guaranteed escalation of force if anything does fly towards, or worse yet hit, that base. Given the apparent parlous state of Russia’s strategic and conventional forces (and our own, sadly), that’s really not a place you want to go. Especially given that a new administration is inbound.

Which brings up some very non-technical considerations. Trump was NOT Vladimir’s choice by any means. Vladimir was quite open and serious about supporting the H/W ticket because he saw them both as easily manipulated idiots in the service of Obama around whom he has run rings for years. Same for the Hildebeast and several others. Also, wonder what his good buddy (with the knife at his back) Xi may have said about the governor…

If Vladimir wants to cement what gains he has, and set the stage for another attack later, he needs to do it under the current Regency. And he needs to do it quick. What could make things move faster than a nuclear threat? Also, don’t forget that in all the ways that matter, Vladimir is already at war with much of the West. So far it’s been mostly low-level stuff, like this reported at Legal Insurrection (if you aren’t reading LI and esp. Leslie’s science reporting, you are missing out). The sabotage is more than troubling as it has a greater chance of escalation than nuclear sabre rattling.

Under most circumstances, I would say that the chances of things going nuclear under Vladimir were under ten percent. For all that he may be many things, I generally don’t think he’s THAT stupid. It’s why I tend to see the IRBM launch as an act of desperation even more than an act of careful escalation.

The only problem is, as I’ve been pointing out for two-plus years now, desperate people do stupid things. Russia finds itself battered upon the rocks such that any chance of the dream of Russkiy Mir are fading faster than the career of the Snow White actress. They are beset by matters economic, demographic, disease (AIDs and more), brain drain, and unrest in restive provinces. On our end of things, you have an administration and an administrative state that sees the end of the world as they know it. Which is why I’m not quite sure what to think about this article (HT Rich Lowe) suggesting a push for nuclear war to prevent the loss of power. Have to admit, what I would have considered unthinkable not all that long ago is now very thinkable.

Likely is the key, however. I don’t think we are there yet, and while it never hurts to prepare for the worst, I am not moving to gather the last-minute prep if I think the bombs are about to fly. I’m still very much trying to take care of basics (and thank you to everyone who donated recently! Your gifts are helping me get caught up on several things including needed OTCs and winter clothing).

I think where we are is an effort to cripple operations by Ukraine and to give an administration, that has ample reasons to forestall various efforts and investigations by an incoming administration, a valid excuse to move rapidly on a “settlement” beneficial to all (except the peoples of the countries involved).

If we were moving faster and closer to a nuclear exchange, I would expect to see some other signs. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I’m doubtful for now. If it does happen, as I’ve been saying for a while now, I will be surprised if twenty percent of the systems work. I really don’t want to find out if I’m right, as there really is only one way to do so. But, I don’t see a need for fear or panic just yet.

I do think you should be prepared, as preparedness always pays. Hit the preparedness archive at need, and if you have questions, sound out. I hope to do a bit more on preparedness soon.

So, grab a towel and don’t panic. Be prepared, up your preparedness, and keep your friends close and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

A Walk In Space

This morning, I got to watch two commercial astronauts take a walk in space using commercially developed EVA suits via a commercially designed and built spacecraft. I can’t tell you how amazing and important this is both technologically, socially, and economically.

I’ve already seen what I believe are some bad takes. Most revolve around ‘NASA did this years ago’ or ‘bunch of rich people doing rich people things’ and I think both are tremendously wrong. Let me tell you why.

Go back and look at what it took for NASA to develop the first EVA suits, then look at what it then took to develop the EVA suits used on ISS. Now, then look at how much it took to develop same and how many years it took. Now, if you want to have a little fun, look and see if any of the developments, materials, etc. are subject to patents.

You might be surprised on that score. Private companies that develop certain materials, products, etc. can and do patent them even if the work is either for or used by NASA. There is a fascinating story behind some specialty LEDs as just one example.

So, while it has been done, look at what Space X did in a relatively short period of time (at least by NASA timelines). They designed, developed, tested, and refined an EVA suit that could be used on this flight. What’s more, the spacewalk today was intended to test that suit and that’s what was done. Simple engineering test, but with profound impact as I will be willing to bet that the suit is further refined and upgraded by the end of the year.

In “traditional” space development, the process would likely involve a beltway bandit or two for analysis, design review, etc., then a new design, then a rather lengthy development process and in a year or three (or decade) there might be a new and very expensive EVA suit produced. If you really want to know what I think of the process, think Starliner from Woeing.

In fact, rather than years I bet Space X has a refined suit ready for further use and testing by early next year. That the next spacewalk is more ambitious and will once again not only allow things to be done now, but result in further refinements and upgrades. Rapid refinements and upgrades based on actual use testing. Just like what they are doing with launch.

While we are at it, take a look at the revolution Space X has already kicked off in spacesuit design. They look like spacesuits, they fit a wide variety of people, are comfortable and easy to use (according to reports from those who have used them), and it was all done relatively rapidly and economically. Now, compare and contrast to what NASA has done and the development cycle of same. Next step: look at the time and expense developing NASA’s modular EVA suit design, that only fits a limited range of body types (in practical terms), how long it took to develop, the cost of development, and the pace of refinement on same.

Just as Space X has changed the economics of launch, they are now on the path to change the economics (and ergonomics) of the USE of space. What do you want to bet that they have also already looked ahead at some specialty suits?

So, no, this morning was not something mankind has never done before. It’s more important and paradigm shattering than that. Just as they are revolutionizing launch, this is the first step in revolutionizing the use of space. Change and testing in weeks/months, not years or decades. This will also have the ability to reduce costs as well, which further opens up space and space resource exploration and exploitation. Have spacesuit, will travel.

Nor was this morning some rich man’s indulgence. It was an engineering test and proof of concept, that will help open up space to all. It is a major step towards that future Heinlein and others envisioned where average people could go and do rather than just an elite few. The elite few are making that future possible, yes. But what they did this morning opens the door to an affordable, effective, and non-government controlled access to space, and to living and working in same.

If the governments (including ours) don’t kill Elon and Space X over X and other politics, we have a future in space. We have reliable and increasingly economical launch capability. We have just demonstrated the ability to live and work in space. Next step, habitats. I’m going to skip Starlink (and Boring) for today, though it has a role in this as well.

Welcome to a potential great future. Pity so few people will notice it, or recognize what happened this morning for what it is. For those who do get it, hang on, the ride is going to get bumpy but if we and Space X survive, we are on track to truly become a spacefaring species.

D.D. Harriman, call your office.

(Mr. Musk to the white courtesy phone please. Mr. Musk to the white courtesy phone please)

Marooned

I’ve not said a whole lot about the fiasco that is Woeing’s Starliner and the crew stranded on the ISS so far, but the cartoon I saw yesterday with Starliner as the SS Minnow and Gilligan in a space suit knocking on the hatch of the ISS was a good push. Besides, I had promised to write something in this post, and it is past time.

I’ve been worried about the Starliner effort for a while, as it has had far more problems than I would have liked from the start. Now, any new effort is going to have things crop up, as it is never as easy as people make it out to be to go from paper to actually bending metal. The best laid plans, and blue prints, rarely get everything just right; tech, particularly new or upgraded tech, rarely works as planned; and, I think the only time one sees complex systems flawlessly integrate at first try is in the movies.

Space is hard and harsh. Spacing is even harder.

That said, a lot of the basics are known and should — at this point — be well understood. The basics can, and should, be tweaked at need, but such shouldn’t be that difficult. Now, developing totally new systems, trying new things, and facing a huge amount of regulation (call it that for now) from an agency that is one of the most risk-adverse on the planet, and things can and do get interesting.

It can be done, if one has a “can-do” attitude and is willing to innovate, take risks, and even on occasion “discuss” things with said agency. Just look at Space X for what happens then.

When you have a company, however, that is “old-school” in many respects as to innovation, risk, etc.; and, said company has gone woke and turned away from what made it successful to start with, well, you get the current mess with Starliner.

Which is why I also keep hearing the voice of Martin Caidin pop up every so often. People have brought up his book and the movie Marooned in regards the current situation with the crew trapped on the ISS. A few have pointed out that he also wrote the book Cyborg which became the television series The Six Million Dollar Man. Few realize the sometimes pivotal roles he played in aviation and space over the years.

In the interest of full disclosure, Martin and I were friends and I acknowledge he was a better friend to me than I was to him. We even waged a futile effort to save the old Aviation/Space Writers Association at one point, an organization which I had joined in part because of Martin. If you cover aviation, particularly aviation accidents, you really should try to find a copy of the AWA guide to covering air accidents as it is still fairly spot on. I will also acknowledge that Martin was a bit of a character.

He was also one heck of a practical engineer who had a gift for science. For those of a nuclear war bent, you might want to notice who was heavily involved in exploring (and more) the concept of firestorms from nuclear blasts. Martin also was involved with a number of aviation advancements, as well as with historical preservation. Space also has his imprint upon it. Some of the books (and stories) he wrote were done as a way of exploring topics that certain establishments didn’t want to explore or were reluctant to explore. Fairly common in some ways for science fiction, but Martin truly ran with it.

Martin also understood that advancement (literary, scientific, or engineering) means risk. He understood calculated risk. Which is why I suspect some of his commentary on the current situation might veer a touch towards the pungent. Especially in regards the possibility of the crew being told to ride the capsule down. Marooned was fiction (and a bit of a push towards developing a rescue capability), and should stay that way.

Right now, the capsule is blocking some urgently needed real estate, namely one of two docking ports. If the software got changed to remove the remote/independent separation ability because of NASA “regulations” the situation is even more rich in irony. That said, it needs to be cleared. That said, with the cascade of failures in Starliner, I would not ride it down nor would I order anyone to ride it down. Frankly, I think the best option right now is to try to update the software and risk bricking it. If it works, port cleared and the capsule can be sent back to Earth where if it survives re-entry it can be studied. Medium case is clearing the port and adding a rather large chunk of space debris to LEO. Worst case is that it bricks and the port remains blocked. It’s blocked already, so not seeing a true downside to trying.

I’m not going to say that Woeing needs to go completely back to the drawing board, but I think they might want to consider going pretty close to it. They may also want to look at adopting the old model of operations from when they were Boeing (and successful) and putting the engineers back in charge. Radical, I know, but it is what is needed.

If they do, expect support from me and from elsewhere I suspect we might hear some clapping and some pithy comments about it taking long enough, get to it.

By the way, I would commend almost any of Martin’s fiction and non-fiction (!!) to you. Among other things, he wrote a guide to surviving nuclear war that is not only good, but also applicable to general preparedness if I remember correctly. Heck, I need to try to find a (reasonably priced) copy if I can. If you haven’t seen it, the movie Marooned is pretty good. Again, read his works as he was more of a key figure in modern aviation and space than many realize.

Also, while I’m thinking about it, Stephen Green at PJ, and both David Strom and Jazz Shaw at Hot Air are doing some really good space and science coverage. Check them out.

Starship 4th Test Flight

Wow. What a flight! David Strom hits things on the head here, and I very much agree with his close: Elon Musk is a figure out of Heinlein. Love him or loathe him, he is making indelible changes on the world. From my viewpoint, most of those are good. Especially when it comes to getting us off this mudball.

Over the years, I’ve been fortunate to know and spend time with some interesting people, and to have done work for NASA twice. Today showed me several things I’ve been told were impossible, but I just watched them play out in realtime.

More years ago than I care to think about, Jerry and Roberta Pournelle took a callow young science writer under their wings. This led not only to interesting dinners but inclusion on several discussions of science and technology, often centering on spaceflight and heading out from Earth. Some discussions of such may have been a bit spirited, but it is interesting how they often led to investigation, experimentation, and change.

While my memory is not what I would like, I do seem to remember that Jerry was somewhat strongly of the opinion that landing rockets upright/vertical a la Golden Age science fiction was impossible. I’ve been watching SpaceX stick vertical landings on droneships for a while now and smiling. To be honest, think Jerry would be delighted at being wrong and seeing what is going on.

I’ve heard similar, but not nearly as spirited (and innovative) discussions at NASA at time or two. Then again, far too many there were wedded to the long, slow, expensive process at NASA. NASA is not only risk averse, but anything that smacked even slightly of failure was something never to be done again. NASA did not fail, it only succeeded — at great cost, lots of time, and one-off hardware. What Elon and SpaceX are doing is the best way to do real development: speculate, build, test, refine, test, refine, test, and then move out. Doing that is almost guaranteed to cut your development timeline by two thirds if not more.

Now, let’s look at all the pretty pictures, and even more importantly the massive amounts of data, that we got during reentry. Let me repeat that: DURING REENTRY. Another thing I was told at various times was impossible, beyond technical capabilities, etc. Never happen. Heh. Right. All made possible via Starlink and innovative thinking. If you think Elon’s companies aren’t meant to work together… I have suspicions about The Boring Company, which is anything but boring…

Now, when it comes to burnthrough the conventional wisdom was that pretty much any burnthrough was a catastrophic event. Even a pinprick spelled doom for a craft, and the idea that any external component or system that experienced such could function afterwards was nonsense! Nonsense I tell you Sir! Cough. Guess what I watched today? Heck, they invited some burnthrough by deliberately leaving off some tiles and putting sensors and such there because that data was needed. Not in a critical area, but still…

When the flap began to burn through, I kept expecting to see the rocket tumble and fail. Instead, I saw — even with the damage to the camera — the flap move and operate, and the ship continue to maneuver and function. That was amazing, and again I had been told impossible. I’m beginning to think Elon’s breakfast consists of multiple impossible things each morning.

Perfect mission? No, but an amazing success anyway. Right now, looks like they hit all the major goals, including getting massive amounts of data so they can improve and try again. In fact, a surface reading indicates that nothing that did go wrong requires the FAA to investigate and delay work on the next TEST flight according to the paperwork. That said, the Biden Regency hates Musk and has been trying to throw wrenches into the gears as they can, so I really do expect them to try to find a way to do so now. The offset to that is that the military and the Intelligence Community are now both having to back Elon given their dependence on SpaceX for reliable and cost-effective launches. That may reduce the interference. We can but hope.

As I’ve said before: Earth is the cradle of humanity, but crib death is still a thing and we need to be out on as many worlds — large and small — as we can as fast as we can. Even if not for survival per se, it is also a good idea for political survival. See Kotani and Robert’s Island World/Act of God series for the latter.

Right now, Elon and SpaceX are our best shot at getting that underway. We need them, so keep them in your prayers as there are a lot of people who want them to fail. Heck, need them to fail.

As far as living and working in space full time, think we still have some research to do. Some recent investigations into blood and other issues long-term for those in space raises some concerns. I’ve talked before about the issues with reproduction in space.

Which reminds me, the Chinese investigations underway with fish are a thing to watch. This could provide lots of good data not only on how they do in microgravity. This ties into issues of food in space and reproduction in space, and may be a good step towards ensuring safety on both fronts. I suspect that some gravity is going to be needed, but how much is the question. One that can be easily and fairly quickly answered at need.

That, however, is for the future. Right now, today’s test flight was amazing. Not only visually, but operationally and from the standpoint of gathering data.

Keep doing the impossible Elon and SpaceX! We need this more than most may realize.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Intelligence, OST, Thoughts

This is still going to be shorter than I would like, but things are afoot. I will say that the whole “Intelligence” issue that was supposed to be such a major security threat to the US seems much more a lack-of-intelligence/too-much-politics issue though it does raise some interesting possibilities.

Going back to my original post, FM made some very good comments I urge you to read. Nukes in space don’t do like they do on the ground. Take a look at what happened with Starfish Prime for an example. Not too long after, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union signed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which happened to ban such activity well before the Outer Space Treaty (OST). While Vladimir has pulled Russia out of most treaties of late, officially no one has set anything off in near-Earth orbit or deeper space since then.

I do seem to recall someone proposing to use nukes to clean up debris in Earth orbit, but that may have been during some informal discussions. Regardless, the idea and the originator were figuratively beaten about the head and shoulders. Just going to say look to Starfish Prime for reasons why.

Russia does have ASAT weapons and they do work. One was “tested” not too long ago and the ISS and other objects are still having to maneuver to avoid the debris created by the destruction of an old (Soviet?) Russian satellite. That is about all I can say on the topic of ASATs and SDI.

I will note that, in my personal opinion, a lot of marxist/communist fellow-travelers in the U.S. have long used the OST to hamstring both civilian and military space activities to the benefit of the Soviets and now Russians. According to them, any effort ground or space to develop SDI was a violation of treaty and some of them worked very hard to kill our efforts.

A good bit of focus of such efforts now is not just military, but commercial. Under the OST, most commercial is effectively banned if not formally banned. This, along with the ridiculous pious hand waving and screaming about how doing orbital extraction and processing would be an environmental disaster (yep, that’s a real thing), as would any human habitation on any celestial body be it the Moon or an asteroid. And, yes, there are real efforts underway to enact treaties and laws to ban such. Pay attention, as they really do want you and humanity as a whole trapped.

Personal opinion is that the OST has been twisted beyond pretzel status from the start, and is a treaty from which we should (must) formally withdraw. The non-binding Artemis Accords are somewhat better, but we need clear support for commerical, private property in space, and the use and exploitation of resources. Without such, any business will be taking a huge risk to pursue such.

There have been rumors for a while, that while a signatory to the OST, China was looking to violate it by claiming if not the entire lunar surface, good and important chunks of it. Including use of military force to defend such claim. Is such possible? Yes. Is it probable? Not at this time, not with the economic and other crises facing China and the CCP. That said, China is pushing hard to not only move into orbit, but have footholds elsewhere as well. It will be interesting to see where that goes.

Before I forget, again, the banning of WMD (nukes) from space not only was to protect Earth and the magnetic fields, but to keep things simple in regards attack detection. FM may have brought this up, but having nukes in orbit greatly complicates attack detection. Is that a nuke or a data/sample return mission (keep in mind that many spy satellites physically returned film and other media to the ground for quite a while)? When weapons can come from any direction, including straight up, it does indeed make it difficult for the defenders. See also yesterday’s post.

So, winding up. Could Russia use nukes in orbit to take out satellites, including via use of undeclared weapons put up as part of other payloads? Yep. Are they likely to? Different question, and I hope not. I will simply say I don’t think that would work out they way some seem to think it would. Should we leave the OST and any other binding or non-binding agreement that limits commercial activities? Yes. A thousand times yes.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Congratulations SpaceX!

For all I would have loved for Starship to have hit fractional orbit and then landed in the Pacific, for a second integrated test flight it was a success. Frankly, that they pulled off the hot-stage separation is amazing, and it was not something I was counting on seeing.

As it is, it happened. All the engines lit and stayed lit until shut off on the first stage, and everything was nominal until after the hot-staging. All the engines appeared to be functioning normally on the second stage right up until the self-destruct engaged. I’m curious as to why they had that system on the second stage, and if they plan to continue to do so. The initial word seems to be the pad is good, so no major repairs or upgrades needed (we hope).

Best of all, they seem to have gotten lots of good data that are going to allow them to go in, figure things out, and make improvements to the next system. Lather, rinse, repeat. It really is the best way to develop new systems. Getting things to orbit, especially with a system significantly larger and more powerful than the Saturn V, is not easy. Just look back to the early days even before NASA, where launches rarely worked as planned. Some of the videos from the Navajo (Nevergo) and other early rockets are quite spectacular.

It didn’t end in the Pacific, but it was a good mission in terms of data. Here’s hoping that they can analyze, adapt, and try again as soon as possible — esp. if the Biden Regency will get out of the way. Earth is the cradle of humanity, and it’s past time we left the cradle.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Stolen F-35?

Sarah A. Hoyt has raised the possibility that the missing F-35 has been “stolen.” Rather, it has been given by corrupt figures in the military and government to China. That the incident and ejection have been faked to cover up that action.

I will state that such is a possibility. I do not, however, see it as a probability at this time. Before I get into some of that, let me preface with a few remarks and conditions. My own ejection training is a decade or two out of date, and was primarily focused on two-seat fighters. I got the training while getting my physiological training certificate at Little Rock. When it comes to ejection systems, I am most familiar with the ACESII system which used to be quite the thing.

Some quick notes. First, ejection is NOT fun as you are subjected to a large number of G’s and potentially some other delights. Common injuries were neck and back, though broken limbs (arms and legs) were not uncommon on some previous systems as if you didn’t have them in the right spot/position, they not only caught force they could also catch parts of the plane as you rapidly left it. Ouch.

Second, another common accident was having the person ejecting forget to transfer their oxygen hose from the main panel to the seat bottle. The little green apple of the seat bottle is your friend. There is a reason that used to be practiced during both physiological and ejection training. If you don’t remember to do that, as you leave the plane the mask is rather violently ripped from your face and helmet, and often did bad things to your neck and sometimes to your face and neck. Failing to switch fell under the category of “Very Bad Thing” as a result.

Third, the activation of an ejection seat usually triggers a beacon to help guide SAR to the downed pilot. This is separate from any Emergency Locator Beacon (ELB) on the plane itself. As an FYI, on civilian planes it is possible to manually activate the ELB, my memory is fuzzy (stupid lightning) on military craft. Seem to recall that it depended on the aircraft. Yes, military craft do tend to have such to aid in recovery (or destruction at need).

Fourth, no matter the system, the canopy goes bye bye in the process. In a normal ejection per my training, a charge blew the canopy back and away so you didn’t end up like Goose in Top Gun. Also, if your seat failed when you pulled the cord, the alternative was to raise the canopy and let the slipstream rip it off. As it did so, a lanyard was yanked and the secondary system (hopefully) would succeed where the primary failed. Today, you have that, canopies that allegedly fragment, and others — like the F-35 — that split in two so you can get safely launched. See here, here, and here for more info on the F-35 system.

The system in the F-35 works at ground level, which is quite an improvement as earlier system really needed you at 200 feet or higher to work properly. There are some other wrinkles that are fascinating including that it can apparently act automatically without pilot input.

BTW, putting the plane on autopilot when departing mid-flight goes back to WWII. You wanted/needed a steady platform as there were no ejection seats, and if the plane wasn’t under control of the auotpilot or a courageous pilot, it tended to do maneuvers that prevented the crew from leaving. Training was (is?) to do everything you can to hold it steady or to have the plane hold things steady. It makes your departure much smoother and helps prevent any number of injuries. It is interesting to note that some aircraft just keep plugging along after the pilot has left, while others tend to go immediately out of control.

UPDATE: See this comment for one such incident in the late 80s.

In this case, the pilot was apparently seen coming down under canopy, more details here. Side note, glad to see AvLeak is still around. Could it have been faked, such as pushing him in a seat out the back of a transport? Sure. But, no such plane appears to have been nearby at the time. Two, if there were, guarantee a number of the Aviation OSINT folk would have been talking about it by now. Expect to see some serious digging by these fine folks soon.

For all it is highly automated, and features MAGIC CARPET and other delights, it’s really not capable of automated landing. It can get darned close I’m told, but not there. FYI, the old MLS (such as on the Shuttle and other craft) never did truly work as advertised I’m told. We are getting closer, but not there yet. So, the idea of programming the plane to keep flying, go full stealth, and land at an undisclosed location without human intervention is rather unlikely.

Which brings us to the other fly in the ointment. From a purely intel/black ops standpoint, using this type of event to steal one is not very likely. In fact, I can think of a couple of dozen reasons not to do it this way. KISS rules, and I’m not talking the band. Doing it this way violates KISS in so many ways I can’t count them all. In short, secrets keep the fewer are involved. When you court the public, flight trackers, a wingman, and a host of others involved, you are NOT keeping it simple in the ways that count.

Frankly, if I were to want to do a public disappearance, it would be one plane, over water. The fewer who know what is going on, the better. Actually, the easiest way to get one and ship it to the enemy would be via paperwork and that is frighteningly easy to do. No fuss, no muss, no real paper trail, and it would only need a very small number of people to make it happen. That’s also about as far as I’m going to go on that too.

Now, I admit I’m more than a little curious why the transponder quit working and why no ELB (yet). In defense of the transponder, having a rocket motor go off right in front of you can be a bit disconcerting. If the plane went down in water, the ELB is going to be problematic to detect if it works.

Right now, I’m leaning towards the plane having remained in auto pilot and it did some form of soft landing, most likely in water. If it had done a soft landing on land, odds are we should have had some sign of it but that is not guaranteed. Until we have more data, all we can do is speculate. Again, I’m leaning towards the F-35 doing a modern version of a WWII ghost plane, but until we have hard data…

UPDATE: I was wrong about water, it did indeed apparently hit on land. Sad thing is, at this point, even if every part matches it won’t really matter.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Missing Pt. 2

Okay, part one was tongue in cheek. But, this is the stuff of legends. Did it crash into a lake? Did it just come down somewhere relatively intact? Did it go down at sea?

If you go back and read about aviation in WWII, you are going to come across a number of documented stories where planes made it back to England — without their crews. One I remember reading about, the crew bailed out as the plane was loosing altitude such that the didn’t think it would clear the coast. So, they all bailed out. This lightened the load such that the plane not only cleared the coast, it did a near perfect belly landing at the field from which it had departed. Freaked the ever living out of the people there when they found no crewmembers inside.

I seem to recall the late, great, Martin Caidin writing about some of these, including an incident he witnessed during a commemoration flight.

A lot of modern planes, however, don’t do well if they lose computer control and such. In fact, a couple of them will just about come apart if they lose such controls at speed. However, if they keep that control and are on a steady path via autopilot, who knows?

So, go back and read up on some of the ghost planes of WWII. It’s fun and it says a lot about how rugged the planes then truly were. Only time will tell if we are about to add a modern tale to the mix.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Missing

Next, Er, Steps

I want to follow up on last week’s posts a bit and also look ahead to a few other things. Meantime, if anyone does know of research being done that I’ve missed, please sing out!

The immediate first step is do some fairly straight-forward research. The thing to do is both replicate and expand the FEE experiment from Spacelab J so that several generations of frogs are raised in five different gravitational environments: microgravity, lunar gravity, Mars gravity, something between Mars and full, and full gravity. Harvest samples at various stages for detailed study on the ground, to make sure there are not subtle chemical or other changes taking place. That will provide a lot of good data, including on what level of gravity is needed for proper reproductive development. Multi-generational gives us a look at the long-term.

It may be that Lunar- or Mars-level gravity is sufficient. If not, some type of centrifuge arrangement should work. Follow-on research as to intervals of gravitational exposure should provide the data on if constant gravity is needed or not.

I would also recommend expanding the research to include fish and shrimp. Self-sustaining aquaculture would be a good way to ensure protein and other nutrients for planetary or asteroid colonies. We just need to be sure that it can be done in other than full gravity. Again, let me plug the Act of God/Island Worlds series as they touch on this a bit.

If there is interest, I can try to do a longer post on how aquaculture could be used as part of the life support system. The short version is that the “waste” from the fish and fish processing can be converted to fertilizer and/or feed, and there are ways to possibly use plankton and/or algae for photosynthesis on top of that. The fertilizer could be used to support growing rice and/or other crops.

BTW, “Eric Kotani” was the pen name of astrophysicist Yoji Kondo, who not only wrote entertaining fiction, but used it to explore concepts and possibilities. Full disclosure: Both he and John Maddox Roberts showed me great kindness over the years, and talking with either was always a pleasure.

As noted in the books, the growth of rice developed for low-gravity and confined conditions would not only provide a much needed grain, but the stalks could be used for weaving tatami-style mats to help soften what is likely to be a rather austere environment at first. Again, plant growth could be a very useful part of the environmental systems. Not to replace, but to augment and provide redundancy. The fact that plants actually need a very narrow range of light for growth, which can be provided with low-energy/low heat (heat and heat dissipation being an issue for orbital operations) LEDs, makes it feasible.

As an aside, lots of science fiction has including using grass as a carpet, particularly in space habitats. The idea is intriguing but is going to take more than just creating soil or such to lay down and grow the grass. Given problems with water, humidity, and the fact that microbes love microgravity, my suspicion is that a rather technologically advanced flooring system will be needed. Something that can provide a base for growth, the ability to provide water and other nutrients as needed, the ability to remove excess moisture, and monitor growth and other factors.

Now, as for the act of reproduction itself, no need for formal research. If informal research has not already begun, it will soon and humans are an inventive and adaptive species. Especially when it comes to sex.

Let’s just be sure that when the inevitable happens, we know what is needed for a healthy pregnancy for humans, and healthy development for food sources and pets.

Space-ing Is Hard

Sex In Space!