I’ve not said a whole lot about the fiasco that is Woeing’s Starliner and the crew stranded on the ISS so far, but the cartoon I saw yesterday with Starliner as the SS Minnow and Gilligan in a space suit knocking on the hatch of the ISS was a good push. Besides, I had promised to write something in this post, and it is past time.
I’ve been worried about the Starliner effort for a while, as it has had far more problems than I would have liked from the start. Now, any new effort is going to have things crop up, as it is never as easy as people make it out to be to go from paper to actually bending metal. The best laid plans, and blue prints, rarely get everything just right; tech, particularly new or upgraded tech, rarely works as planned; and, I think the only time one sees complex systems flawlessly integrate at first try is in the movies.
Space is hard and harsh. Spacing is even harder.
That said, a lot of the basics are known and should — at this point — be well understood. The basics can, and should, be tweaked at need, but such shouldn’t be that difficult. Now, developing totally new systems, trying new things, and facing a huge amount of regulation (call it that for now) from an agency that is one of the most risk-adverse on the planet, and things can and do get interesting.
It can be done, if one has a “can-do” attitude and is willing to innovate, take risks, and even on occasion “discuss” things with said agency. Just look at Space X for what happens then.
When you have a company, however, that is “old-school” in many respects as to innovation, risk, etc.; and, said company has gone woke and turned away from what made it successful to start with, well, you get the current mess with Starliner.
Which is why I also keep hearing the voice of Martin Caidin pop up every so often. People have brought up his book and the movie Marooned in regards the current situation with the crew trapped on the ISS. A few have pointed out that he also wrote the book Cyborg which became the television series The Six Million Dollar Man. Few realize the sometimes pivotal roles he played in aviation and space over the years.
In the interest of full disclosure, Martin and I were friends and I acknowledge he was a better friend to me than I was to him. We even waged a futile effort to save the old Aviation/Space Writers Association at one point, an organization which I had joined in part because of Martin. If you cover aviation, particularly aviation accidents, you really should try to find a copy of the AWA guide to covering air accidents as it is still fairly spot on. I will also acknowledge that Martin was a bit of a character.
He was also one heck of a practical engineer who had a gift for science. For those of a nuclear war bent, you might want to notice who was heavily involved in exploring (and more) the concept of firestorms from nuclear blasts. Martin also was involved with a number of aviation advancements, as well as with historical preservation. Space also has his imprint upon it. Some of the books (and stories) he wrote were done as a way of exploring topics that certain establishments didn’t want to explore or were reluctant to explore. Fairly common in some ways for science fiction, but Martin truly ran with it.
Martin also understood that advancement (literary, scientific, or engineering) means risk. He understood calculated risk. Which is why I suspect some of his commentary on the current situation might veer a touch towards the pungent. Especially in regards the possibility of the crew being told to ride the capsule down. Marooned was fiction (and a bit of a push towards developing a rescue capability), and should stay that way.
Right now, the capsule is blocking some urgently needed real estate, namely one of two docking ports. If the software got changed to remove the remote/independent separation ability because of NASA “regulations” the situation is even more rich in irony. That said, it needs to be cleared. That said, with the cascade of failures in Starliner, I would not ride it down nor would I order anyone to ride it down. Frankly, I think the best option right now is to try to update the software and risk bricking it. If it works, port cleared and the capsule can be sent back to Earth where if it survives re-entry it can be studied. Medium case is clearing the port and adding a rather large chunk of space debris to LEO. Worst case is that it bricks and the port remains blocked. It’s blocked already, so not seeing a true downside to trying.
I’m not going to say that Woeing needs to go completely back to the drawing board, but I think they might want to consider going pretty close to it. They may also want to look at adopting the old model of operations from when they were Boeing (and successful) and putting the engineers back in charge. Radical, I know, but it is what is needed.
If they do, expect support from me and from elsewhere I suspect we might hear some clapping and some pithy comments about it taking long enough, get to it.
By the way, I would commend almost any of Martin’s fiction and non-fiction (!!) to you. Among other things, he wrote a guide to surviving nuclear war that is not only good, but also applicable to general preparedness if I remember correctly. Heck, I need to try to find a (reasonably priced) copy if I can. If you haven’t seen it, the movie Marooned is pretty good. Again, read his works as he was more of a key figure in modern aviation and space than many realize.
Also, while I’m thinking about it, Stephen Green at PJ, and both David Strom and Jazz Shaw at Hot Air are doing some really good space and science coverage. Check them out.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Full Disclosure I worked a consultant for the Boeing Commercial Aviation IT. I enjoyed it a lot. But, I also saw a great Program go off the the rails because of bureaucratic inertia and constant leadership changes, akin to military “ticket punching”.
The Boeing of old was smaller and had lot’s of competition and could focus on the outcomes.
The current Boeing is a bloated bureaucracy that seems only able to focus on process. Even that seems to fail them when it comes to QA.
Your software update [brick | brick/debris | unbrick] matrix seems like a great target upon which some Bayesian analyst/gambler might earn chops. All we need is an intelligent upload, one helluva support link to a creative coder and some up-against-the-wall gotta-do decision making.
And luck. Recall, Aldrin and Armstrong making it off the moon only ‘coz Aldrin’s pen happened to fit the void left by the rocket motor toggle broken off when they re-entered the LEM. The manifest did not list said pen as an emergency backup device.
Yep, but doubt we will get it. We can hope.
As to the second part, we do need luck and to be prepared. It is interesting how often “ordinary” things turn out to be critical in emergencies or other interesting situations. Also thinking of a mop/broom handle chunk and Yeager’s wild ride. 🙂
In an SF movie someone would have to suit up, go outside and pull the manual disengage lever. Don’t these people watch SF?
From what I’ve read, the suits won’t allow somebody to get out of the capsule after disengaging. Something’s too big to fit a hatch.
I’ve heard some rumors, but would like a bit more info. That said, if the suits won’t fit through the hatch, that is a major design flaw for which heads should roll.
LOL! Given that it wouldn’t surprise me if Nelson ordered them to ride it back down, have wondered if there were any spare red shirts up on the ISS…
From an SF standpoint I think the best book of his I read was “The Cape”, but in reading about him I understand that his personal favorite was “Exit Earth”. I’ve been trying to find a copy of that, but the only time I thought I got one the online seller accepted the order, and then cancelled it since they couldn’t find the copy on their shelves.
He also wrote a fair amount of complete trash and believed in some weird things, but I’d have loved to meet him since he seemed to have an interesting outlook on life.
As I noted, Martin was a character. 🙂 As with most people, there were parts that were outstanding, parts that were different, and parts where we disagreed on things. Thing was, where we disagreed (or he disagreed with others) was where you got some of the most interesting discussions. In person, he was also a master storyteller who could put the bards of old to shame. I think you would have enjoyed meeting him.
I met him one time. My father was a journalist who lined up an interview with him. I begged to go along. Courteous, humorous and knowledgeable are just a few words that described him that day. In the middle of the interview, Caiden took a phone call. It was from a British petty officer from a submarine in port. Apparently, Caidin was instrumental in keeping the Brit out of jail following a bar fight the night before. The Brit was calling to say “thanks.”
LOL! That was Martin! He was always in tight with local (and even non-local) LE and it paid off for him and for so many others. He would use those contacts for good stead, and that PO was just one of many who benefited. 🙂 I seem to recall a story about the Pope’s brother that was a rather good one. 🙂
Having met him at Oshkosh circa ’81 with his restored Junkers Tri-Motor “Iron Annie”, he was the first to make me realize that there are people who make this world a far better and more interesting place – and for whom we should thank God that they are not our next door neighbors. I don’t think I could have kept up with such energy!
He is sorely missed indeed. Thank you for the well written reminder!
Glad to and thank you! A good reminder that I was glad he wasn’t my next door neighbor, as he was indeed hard to keep up with! 🙂
For those of you interested in the cartoon itself, try https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-a-tale-of-a-fateful