Politics – Page 8 – The Laughing Wolf

The Next Boot To Drop

Actually trying to step away from the news for a bit, as it is making me a touch pessimistic. Yes, there are some good things happening: lawfare against Trump seems to be coming apart, various anti-2A initiatives getting exposed and hammered, some really good news from some of the local elections around the country, and more.

That said, I’m seeing a lot of push of ‘our democracy’ and that we are a democratic government instead of a constitutional republic. Yes, it does matter. Democracy is mob rule, and the founding fathers were right to shun it. What is being done now is a deliberate campaign both to push the idea onto the public that we a democracy no matter what; and, that Trump and all who oppose the (so-called) progressives are not just an enemy, but evil that needs to be removed.

The amount of ‘who will rid me of that troublesome priest’ rhetoric is astounding. And, it is being picked up on. It’s not just troubled souls like the young man in Tennessee with mental issues who is being sought in the belief he means to harm Trump supporters. It’s far more than that, and it is scary.

I’ve been worried for a while that even if Trump wins (and I expect to see every effort made to keep that from happening), that he (and/or his VP pick) will not be allowed to take office. That is to say, that they are killed. When you listen to the rhetoric, and not just in the wake of the Supreme Court decision, there appears to be a strong call for violence to be done to him and his supporters. You don’t innocently accuse someone to being an existential threat to ‘our democracy’ and then be surprised when some of the less stable people take you seriously.

As I said, the young man in Tennessee is not alone. I fully expect to see violence of many types and on many levels as this election moves forward — from the progressive base against not just Trump supporters, but against conservatives, libertarians, and others who oppose any part of the progressive agenda. Throw that in with all the interesting military-age males coming across the border and things don’t look all that good.

Also, anyone want to bet that as lawfare implodes that they double-down on it?

Prepare for emergencies, keep your head on a swivel, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Keep your friends and loved-ones close. There looks to be a storm coming.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Death of Navalny

I’m honestly surprised it took this long. My bet was sooner during a change of prison. If you believe that he was taking a walk and just collapsed out of the blue, I’ve got some investment opportunities I’d love to discuss with you.

Officially, Russia does not have the death penalty. The days of a relatively clean bullet to the back of the head (see The Death of Nina in The Americans as that is accurate about how it was done) are gone. From what I hear today usually involves paid goons (prisoner or guards), and beatings that may include truncheons, pipes, etc. Somehow I doubt his family will get the body back, as an unmarked prison grave still works best for the people in charge.

I talked about Navalny and other opposition figures in this post. For all that he was not the pro-Western figure beloved of the Western left, he was in many ways the last major opposition to Vladimir and the current leadership. I also have to give him significant props for courage for going back, even knowing he would likely be killed for so doing.

I’m wondering if among other motives, the death of Navalny may possibly also be very cynical opportunism. Vladimir is going to (rightly in the ways that count) take the blame for his murder. Given some of the jockeying and in-fighting that is underway behind the scenes, however, I have to wonder if this was not done by one of the other factions. It puts Vladimir and the current leadership in a bad light internally (which is really what counts) and internationally (which really doesn’t count for much, but…) while they can quietly take credit for bold, decisive action. Given the recent window issues experienced by some current (or possibly former) Vladimir supporters, the game appears to be afoot.

That said, I also have to admit it could just be Vladimir on a schedule that makes sense from an internal Russian perspective, a la the death of Pringles. Or, it could be Vladimir saddling some up and coming competition with the act even as he takes the public blame. What can I say? It is so much fun trying to figure out what is going on not behind an Iron Curtain; but, rather behind the frosted-glass kaleidoscope in place to keep the public from truly seeing behind the scenes.

I have said a prayer for his soul, and note for the record that the fact that I don’t think he was the figure portrayed by Western liberals means in any way that he deserved to be murdered. He did not. Do I hope justice catches up to all involved/responsible at all levels? Yes. Beyond that, there’s not a lot to say. The pundits will roar and lionize, the opposition will demonize, and not much will change. Sorry, a bit cynical this morning and wondering if by the election we will have much room to talk.

Some Memories Of Russia

I’m not really sure what Tucker is up to, but his recent takes on Moscow and Russia in comparison to the U.S. have an odd ring to them. To be charitable.

Almost all my time in Russia was either in St. Petersburg or Moscow. I really wish time and circumstances had allowed me to see more. If it were possible to go back (it’s not), part of me would love to start in St. Petersburg and take the train all the way across the country. Stop and explore along the way, take lots of photos, and get to meet more of the people. On these photos, click to embiggen if you like.

My quick takes are perhaps dated, but here they go. I really enjoyed and liked St. Petersburg. In a perfect world, I could spend months there going through the museums and archives. I felt relatively safe there walking around, and it was comforting to know I had several ways out of Russia from there in an emergency. Had several offers to come back without a date, as they had a nice girl for me to meet and marry (grin, several people did not think much of my companion), and/or to come back in winter and take a sleigh ride.

Moscow did not feel as safe, particularly at night. I only really went out once at night, and it came close to ending in a less-than-positive manner. I will note that in St. Petersburg the word seemed to be out not to harm the tourists (like when the Mob ran Vegas). That was missing in Moscow.

And, yes, the stores and even some food courts were amazing. Of course, part of it was that even the Soviets realized the new buildings were crap and that it was much better to upgrade the old buildings that were well built.

It was a bit jarring, however, to eat at a fast food place shoehorned into the splendor, and that the native Russian with me assured me was the best Italian in Moscow. Cough.

I really thought I had a photo of one of Stalin’s show subway stations, but can’t find it. Pity, as it really was quite a show. If I remember correctly, there were several done in different styles (Deco, Nouveau, etc.) to show the class, grace, and modernity of the great Soviet state. Cough. Tourists were not generally allowed to travel to or through any other stations for some odd reason. Cough. Still lots of rumors (here and there) that Stalin had tunnels put under the Kremlin, both as an escape to distant airfields and to create bomb shelters.

Shakedowns, often by militia, police, etc., were the official big thing at the time. It was the way they had actually gotten additional money back in Soviet days, and was (I was told) how they got paid at the time of my visit. Apparently paychecks got held up a good bit, and I was treated to some amazing music as members (most?) of the Moscow Symphony were having to beg for money in the subway near the Kremlin as they hadn’t been paid in months.

The difference, at that time, was that if you were a tourist, the shakedowns in St. Petersburg tended not to get too physical (or so I was told), whereas Moscow you could easily end up in the hospital or worse. I got lucky in Moscow when accosted one night, talked fast, and engaged in an expedient change of location that got me clear. I did not run (that is not a good idea in such a situation) but I did move in a determined manner. I’m also glad they didn’t understand English as I may have muttered a few things under my breath while trying to talk my way out.

I will also admit that in St. Petersburg I had hired a driver and translator. To be honest, I chose that pair because they had worked with (but not for) the GRU and KGB during the Soviet era. Longer story there, but we did not have any problems or shakedowns during the time there. I used similar to get to and from the airport in Moscow, as kidnappings for ransom on that road were an issue at the time.

So, yes, there are places in Moscow and elsewhere that are absolutely gorgeous. There are places where, especially as a tourist (and most likely under open and covert watchful eyes), you are going to be safe. But, there are also no-go zones and other delights to go with the remains of Stalin’s show pieces. You might also want to look at average income, STD (and esp. HIV) rates, medical, and a few other critical things.

Glad I visited, not really interested in living there. If Tucker or anyone else is, all the best to them. They are going to need it.

A Different Type Of Irrational Actor

In several of the posts in my category on nuclear use and/or war, I talk about the “actors” involved. No, not the Hollyweird types but the (so-called) leaders of various nuclear powers.

Back when such was primarily the U.S. and Soviet Union, the basic feeling was that both parties were rational actors. That is, they were of reasonably sound mind, had rational interests in protecting the lives and livelihoods of their respective countries, and were not bent on destroying the world. Even as the club grew, this remained the basic framework for evaluation and consideration of the actions of those people.

There was always at least some (lip) service given to the potential for madmen to get control of a weapon or even a missile or plane. Or, that some form of technological failure would set things off. The presumptions behind Fail Safe (book and movie) was about the former, while the satire Dr. Strangelove presented the latter. That said, both dealt with larger-scale events and both led to efforts to prevent or mitigate same. Twilight’s Last Gleaming looked at someone gaining control of a nuclear missile command post/silo. The ridiculous The Manhattan Project looked at a student building an atomic bomb. Dawn’s Early Light examined rogue Soviet agents firing a missile from Turkey to provoke an exchange.

As far as the public (and media of the day) were concerned, the real problems lay with rational actors and the chance for mistakes or other to lead to an exchange. The public sentiment seemed to be that rational actors would otherwise never consider a nuclear exchange. The chance of a madman/terrorist getting a bomb was not considered real in terms of public perceptions. For those actually involved with security and proliferation, it was a larger concern than was generally shared with the public. So, between the perceptions of the public outlined above via movies, and concerns for safety, as weapon design advanced so did the safety mechanisms. PIDs (which could be snap hooks or cheap padlocks) were replaced by PALs. At least for some weapons, which is why the loss of the Soviet arms depot just before the Soviet Union came apart was (and is) worrying to the pros. Odds of any such weapons still being viable, if they ever existed or were missing, is slim. That said, the materials and parts within them are potentially a different matter. If they were there, real, and missing that is.

So, what happens when a state with nuclear weapons is not a rational actor in accordance with the basic framework? What happens when it’s not one madman who gets in charge, but rather an entire government that has a very different take on the world and what is rational within it?

It’s a very interesting question, and one we may get to explore more than theoretically in the coming days. A certain degree of lip service, if that, has been given to the concept of a state that has a very different take on politics and religion, but the “experts” have tended to push that they would behave as rational actors. My thoughts on that have never been in full (or most other) agreement as the leaders of such a country would not think as we think, within a framework of thought crafted by Western civilization. Pretty much the “mores” argument on dealing with the Soviets/Russians, but with added mayhem.

So, in the last week we’ve had a country, that if it is not already a nuclear weapons power is extremely close to being such, attacking multiple countries not just by proxy but directly via ballistic missiles — including three that are believed to be nuclear powers. This on top of conducting “covert” operations on a wide scale, possibly into the Americas. A government hanging on in many ways by a thread with a population that is a powder keg looking for a spark. A government that is a theocracy that makes typical repression look tame. A government that advocates and works for their version of Armageddon as it will bring about the return of the hidden imam and the creation of a world-wide Islamic caliphate.

By no measure can Iran be considered a typical rational actor in terms of nuclear use/non-use scenarios. In fact, I consider them far more unstable than North Korea, and that’s saying something. Especially given a number of rather troubling developments with Kim and the North Korean government/military that don’t bode well for a peaceful 2024. That’s a nightmare that I will leave for others to explain. In regards Iran, you have a regime that has no regard for human life on any level. Such is a Western concept they reject completely and totally. They consider lives outside of themselves as even less than those they wantonly kill or maim to stay in power.

Aside from the U.S. and Israel, Iran has chosen to attack Pakistan, which is a nuclear power. Which has responded with attacks of its own that may be just the start of retaliation per various declarations. While some are saying they won’t really go at it as both are Islamic, the fact is they are two different “flavors” of Islam and they are not compatible. This has the potential to get very, very interesting on its own.

Now, let’s look at a known feature of Iranian activities: the use of proxies/catspaws. Something I’ve brought up from time to time is a concern that this would apply even to nuclear operations. To make it even more fun, I can think of several ways they could make such a use appear to be the result of others being careless, such as China or North Korea. There is growing evidence that both the latter have supplied weapons (and more) to Hamass, Hezbowlah, and the Houthi/Hootie. Or, despite their apparent closeness to Russia, suspect that they would be more than glad to set them up as well.

Given the reported involvement of China with Iran’s nuclear weapon and missile development, do you think it would be hard to get enough material to obfuscate the origins of a nuclear weapon? Or that others might share material (or help obtain such) to use for such a purpose from others? While analysis can often tell us where the nuclear materials in any device, dirty or otherwise, came from there has always been the possibility of spoofing that, or at least to providing enough to put the analysis into question. Remember that arms depot and that there is potentially a fair bit of nuclear materials available for use/reuse, from every major nuclear power. Just a thought to brighten your day.

Now, let’s kick things up a notch. Imagine if a nuclear weapon detonated within Yemen, or after being launched by the Houthi at a ship in the gap. On the former, I would expect to see Israel blamed and the large number of governments demand (or even execute) attacks on/destruction of Israel. The huge amount (and growing) of antisemitism is not an accident or otherwise unplanned. Even if it was clear the detonation came from a missile or drone launched from Yemen, expect a large and coordinated push to blame Israel. Now, to kick it up even further, consider what would happen if the Biden Regency, which is not terribly pro-Israel (and has a number of antisemites within it) has to react to American warships, or even a CBG, caught in such a blast.

Or, while less likely image if something were to happen in or near Venezuela where both China and Iran have been busy, busy, busy. Imagine it happened to a British ship or ships, or to the capital of the country they want to invade. Far fetched you say? Not as much as I would like.

Because it all comes back to Iran being a non-rational state actor. They are an Islamic theocracy driven by religious beliefs and more importantly goals. Their actions have to be analyzed and considered in that light. To continue, as some “experts” seem determined to do, to treat and analyze them as rational actors is ridiculous. Even absent nuclear intents, it is foolish in the extreme to consider them a rational actor and treat them accordingly.

That the Biden Regency/Obama II The Dementia Boogaloo will continue to do so, and work for them instead of against them, is a given. Once bought, they do tend to stay bought… Which is all the more likely to escalate the situation. It is also driving a wedge into a number of long-term and/or important alliances. This fracturing is very detrimental to the concepts of peace and stability, be it deliberate or otherwise. It also means anything done by another that might be effective will be resisted if not prevented by the Regency.

Meantime, Iran will continue it’s international game of chicken and work towards its own ends. While for many in the West the attacks on three nuclear powers makes no sense, it did and does make sense to the mad mullahs in Tehran. I strongly suspect we would be a lot better off if our experts would start trying to look at it from their viewpoint rather than continuing to try to shoehorn it into the rational actor box. They are not rational actors as we think of it, and failure to acknowledge that is going to have very bad results.

SecDef Blues

I really thought about doing a long post on chain of command and the intricacies of same. It is a fascinating topic, and one a LOT of pundits and other political types get very, very wrong. I actually hope their take stays wrong, as what they view as how-it-is/proper is a great way to have very bad things happen. As in illegal orders is the least of the issues involved.

Thing is, I suspect many/most of you who are regular readers have served. You know how interesting things can get. For example, I watched a jackass LTC from the 10th try to intimidate a LT who was not in his chain of command into doing something against orders issued by said LTs chain of command. Don’t think things really went as well as the jackass (who also used physical intimidation) thought it did. If you’ve served odds are you seen it and had the joy of dealing with a Vindman-type. Such people are often worth their weight in plutonium — to the enemy.

For today, I’ve decided against getting into the weeds just to deal with the issue at hand. The President is the commander-in-chief of our armed forces. Despite hollyweird and bad punditry takes, that doesn’t mean that POTUS can call up CPL. Snuffy and order an attack on the local chow hall. Though, given the state to which current military leadership has let things fall, CPL Snuffy and crew might cheerfully, even eagerly, illegally obey the order. When it comes to things nuclear, things are even tougher. That’s a topic discussed in the posts on nuclear war and operations.

Short version is that POTUS operates through (and with) the Secretary of Defense (SECDEF). The SECDEF relays orders and intentions through the Joint Chiefs and/or the civilian leaders of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. It starts the process of amplification and clarification that turns ‘Take X Out!’ into a real plan and ops orders to implement same. In nuclear terms, as noted previously, the SECDEF confirms the orders to the National Military Communications Center (which could be complex in the form of ‘target package Axis 7 plus X, Y, and Toledo because F them).

Which is why people are justifiably and understandably upset that the SECDEF was out of the loop for DAYS with no one knowing. Were the actions taken by the military during that time approved, and if so, how? Who had his f’ing biscuit and/or was duly delegated to act in his behalf in the event of a major event or nuclear alert? Wanna play a game of how many laws were broken by this apparently deliberate and willful disappearing/dereliction of duty act?

I was not a fan of Austin from the start. To be polite and diplomatic. His actions show a willful disregard for the law and the chain of command, among other things. Frankly, he should resign over this. Really, he should be impeached and tried over this, as if I or CPL Snuffy had done something like this we would rightfully be in a cell under Leavenworth. This isn’t a disgrace, it is a willful violation of law and oath.

It also raises a lot of questions about who knew what, and the operations of the DoD and military. Not to mention the operations and competence of the Biden Regency. I will settle for a resignation, but in reality a number of civilian and military heads need to roll over this.

Week Wrap Up

There is a lot happening on and in the world. I’ve not been saying a lot because in both cases it’s hard to know what is really happening.

First up, in tales of the improbable, I’m starting to like John Fetterman. He has been a staunch supporter of Israel and Israel’s right to defend itself. To the point of mocking protestors (even making fun/use of his own brain damage) and hanging the posters of the hostages at his office. He has also been mercilessly trolling Bob Menendez and pushing to have him expelled from Congress a la Santos. His hiring Santos to make a video on Cameo to use in said trolling was a master-level move. Whatever else may come, I can respect and even admire these actions.

Next up, the situation in Yemen and the incompetent response to same. In this case, it’s not just the Biden Regency, but the senior leadership of our military which has reportedly not even briefed Biden and others on options for dealing with the situation. That is coming from multiple sources, and for some reason said leadership seems to know nothing about the history of such attacks or other pertinent information long in the public domain. It is to the point that I wonder about both Intelligence failures and the failure of basic intelligence in senior military (and political) leadership. At least someone seems to be paying attention and taking proactive steps, though everyone is keeping quiet about it. Pretty much rules out DC as that feckless bunch would have been leaking the news and taking credit before the strike ever hit. Wish I could find the video I saw the other day, as the secondary explosions are spectacular.

There are rumbles that part of the reason senior leadership hasn’t briefed Biden or others is because of the Biden Regency’s unwavering support of Iran. The Houthi are Iranian-backed and full proxies for the Mad Mullahs. Again, multiple sources are discussing that behind the scenes the Biden Regency has been pushing Israel hard to not destroy Hamass. To the point an open rift between Israel and the U.S., or at least the Biden Regency, is a growing possibility. The dance has been diplomatic so far, but it appears Israeli leadership is increasingly fed up with the pressure and interference. So much so, there is no guarantee the dance will stay diplomatic and papered over. Israel is in a fight for survival, and I don’t care who is getting ten percent, the Biden Regency needs to pull its sense organ cluster out of its ventral orifice and back off.

They need to be looking a bit closer to home at a potential Monroe Doctrine violation. Iran’s good friend Maduro in Venezuela is making a move to “annex” a portion of neighboring Guyana. A portion that just happens to be a good chunk of Guyana, and that has recently discovered rich oil deposits. Right now, I’m skeptical that this is all part of some overarching plan by Iran against the U.S., but I also have no doubt they are encouraging this. I’ve read some who say that if we had only done more to help Ukraine Maduro would not be doing this. I don’t agreee: Maduro is stupid, venal, and desperate enough to do this even without any encouragement. His recent vote on doing this has blown up in his face not just internationally, but apparently internally as well. The U.S. has been making deals with him recently (once bought, they do tend to stay bought), so I don’t see the Biden Regency as being all that eager to stop him. I think Brazil may be the major player in such, at least for now. Hoping this may stay below a boil, but…

Also, keep an eye on Chad. Something’s going on there, possibly more than just the upcoming election. Odd data patterns.

Going back to Iran and our incompetent leadership, rocket and other attacks against U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq continue. No effective response has been made yet to those attacks, which just encourages more. The lack of concern for our troops (and national interest) is beyond appalling.

Now to Iran’s fastest growing client, Russia. Lots going on beneath the surface. In fact, it sort of reminds me of one of those huge family get togethers where everyone is being super polite to each other openly because if not it will result in a fight where police from multiple jurisdictions have to be called in and the family gets invitations to be on whatever replaced the Maury Povich show.

Somebody on X joked that the sanctions were supposed to put pressure on Vladimir via his fellow oligarchs. The problem is, the oligarchs decided they preferred to be alive, if poorer and grouchy, than to experience defenestration. There’s a lot of truth to that. There is a lot going on beneath the quiet facade however.

Vladimir is having to allow (or create) at least some dissent on the war in order to legitimize upcoming elections. There are those who are pushing for a cease-fire (or more) in regards Ukraine. Just as his own re-election is a given, the results are going to show Russia wanting the war to continue. Allowing some token of opposition, despite the brutal and expanding crackdown on speech and more, can be used to put a flimsy veneer of legitimacy on the election. Russia now is not the Russia I visited or of 20 years ago. There is no free speech, no basic freedoms of any type left. It is toe the line or else.

Which apparently is a memo Kiva did not get. It’s easy to get on Vladimir’s bad side these days, as several of the turncoats are finding out. Yes, I do think it was Vladimir and not Ukraine.

This is something to keep an eye on as well. There continues to be a lot of shakeup/shakedown in regards Wagner and Africa in the wake of the death of Pringles. Interesting how some of the power and perks are shaking out.

Despite the repression and brutality, two things seem to be getting clearer. There are some who oppose the war with Ukraine and their numbers are growing. There also appears to be something of a resistance forming as well, as I’ve noted before. It seems to be mostly local and not some grand organized conspiracy, and is clearly separate from sabotage efforts by Ukraine. As to who is behind this I can’t say; but, there are a number of such incidents happening across Russia, far more than I think Ukraine is capable of doing on its own. Rail accidents, fires, and more that keep popping up. Given the restive nature of many of the non-Rus ethnic populations, as well as ongoing political conflicts, things could get really interesting.

Do I see this flaring up to severely damage or take down the Russian Federation? No. Not yet, and possibly never as it would take a fairly large event to rip the lid off. Could such happen? Yes. I can think of two or three scenarios right off the bat that would do it, but don’t see them likely at this time. For all that I think Vladimir’s control is slipping a bit, I don’t think – barring something off the wall – that he is in imminent danger of being deposed. Kadyrov still has his back for one thing, and he still controls a lot of power. Springtime? That may be different.

Now, if his health suddenly deteriorates much faster or more noticeably than it is now; or, if there is a major defeat (political or military), then we probably will see moves against him. If he makes a major political blunder (in Russian political terms), there are those who would move to take him out in a heartbeat (pun intended).

I will note that while I am sure Vladimir sees Russia as the senior partner in the Russia-Iran activities, I am not sure Iran sees it that way. In fact, I’m pretty sure they don’t which raises interesting possibilities.

Russia and Vladimir are presenting an image (illusion) of calm and unity to the world. It reminds me a lot of the USSR which did so even when literally bloody infighting was ongoing. Much was kept out of the public eye, at least until a new group stood in review along the Kremlin walls. That is happening right now I think, and while we could end up with a public meltdown I get the feeling a number of people/groups are trying to keep things out of the public eye.

Which is what makes Russia/Soviet watching so interesting. It’s trying to see past the illusions and find out what is going on beneath the surface. That there is a lot of movement underway right now is a given; but, the hard part is trying to see where the movements and currents from the movement lead. The big fish/strong man may not be what they seem, for the solid position they hold may be in whole or in part a Potemkin village. The person or persons who move against them often don’t seem to last long, as the next big fish/strong man was simply using them. Stalin and Khrushchev come to mind in that case.

Right now, Vladimir is standing tall and showcasing a mighty position of strength. How much of that position is real, and how much is illusion, is the key. There are people lined up and ready to take his place however they have to. Which, if any, of them survive to do it is the question. The ones to watch are those who profess loyalty and actively support Vladimir, and have privately and quietly indicated they would only consider stepping up at great need (and in the absence of Vladimir) for the good of Russia.

Sometime soon I need to do a post on the real lessons from Ukraine, focusing on data and flexibility. Quite a few are fixated on drones, and missing a key point.

That’s a run down of some of what is happening on the world. For more on what is going on inside the world, check out Volcaholic on X. There is a lot of volcanic activity underway beneath our feet, and his posts on strange and interesting weather and other phenomena are fun and interesting. Check it out.

More soon.

Additional Thoughts On Gaza

FM had a good comment on my previous Gaza post, and my reply forms a good bit of today’s post. The question has been what the everliving did Iran and Hamass think they were doing with Tet II, especially with the recordings and broadcasts of the rapes, torture, and murders?

There are two things to consider on that. First, they didn’t consider the audience. Rather, for cultural reasons, it never even occurred to them that most sane people would react in horror. They had no concept of any audience other than radical Islamists like themselves. To them, the videos would be a message of power for Hamass and a message of terror for Israel. The sight of what was done would drive Israeli’s away from the land, turning it into a ghost land they could then take over. They also counted on their allies and other useful idiots to run cover for them in the media and on the world stage. The allies and idiots are trying, but as Sarah notes, it’s not really sticking.

Second, they didn’t stick to plan. This may seem a little out there, but it does make sense. Thanks to Evergreen Intel, I found this article in The Times of Israel that puts forth the idea that the original plan had been to push towards Tel Aviv but the music festival surprised and distracted them. Instead of pushing on to pose a threat, both the initial assault and the follow-on wave of “civilians” got pulled into the easy rape and killing of those at the festival. This eliminated the ability to pose a threat that would have focused military and political leadership on Hamass and Gaza.

Why do that? Maybe because an Israel focused on the threat and the need to take back military bases and settlements would have diverted attention from, and pulled resources away from, the north, allowing Hezbollah and others to attack lightly held positions. With that going on, who would have been surprised if the West Bank might not have gone up in flames? Others? Best case, Israel would be destroyed. If not, fighting a multi-front war would have allowed Hamass to fall back with hostages to negotiate from a position of power in the worst case.

However, plans created in bubbles rarely work when dealing with realities outside said bubble. Make no mistake, Hamass (and the mad mullahs) live in a bubble. They have turned Gaza into a multi-generational bed of terrorism and militant islamism that is now well documented and shared around the world. From cradle to grave the people of Gaza are raised to hate Israel, the U.S., and others, and trained to kill. Don’t believe me? Check out this poll and the decent analysis here. The idiotic bleatings in regards a two-state solution won’t work with the mindset within Gaza. Think the poll is off? Check out other polls and previous polls, as the numbers have been extremely consistent for years.

It wasn’t the intention of Iran or Hamass, but what they did accomplish outside the bubble was to wake up a lot of people. Not just to the reality of Hamass and Gaza, but to other things as well. Things like the Second Amendment and the right to self-defense. Things like the rampant antisemitism within progressive/Marxist politics. Things like speech and other actions having consequences. Things that are working to derail a lot of progressive/Marxist efforts here and abroad.

The latter has been a rather rude awakening for many, who performed the progressive virtue signalling (or flat-out psychotic rage) of ripping down the posters of those kidnapped by Hamass, or making antisemitic remarks. They are used to being those protected and cancelling others. They are really not liking it now that it has consequences for them.

Am I worried about the current “pause” and prisoner exchange? Yes. Those trying to hamstring Israel as it rightly (and righteously) works to eliminate Hamass (including the Biden Regency) want either the status quo or for Israel to be destroyed. Period. The status quo is for continuing the terrorism and for Israel not to be secure in its own borders. The ultimate destruction of Israel is a cornerstone of the progressive/Marxist mindset. My take on both is that both are evil.

My hope is that the government of Israel knows what it is doing. Part of me hopes they are placing those prisoners they release for this into a place where they get the chance to die with the rest of Hamass. Otherwise, the pause is just another chance for Hamass to rearm, resupply, and work to have their patrons find a way to try to return to the status quo. For all I don’t think that’s going to happen this time, I also don’t want to see Israel take any more casualties than it has to. I also don’t want Israel to find itself where it can be pressured or pushed by those who wish it ill (and I do include the Biden Regency in that group).

Hamass went full Tet, and the above gives a theory as to why they went full Tet. For now, may they reap the whirlwind and be utterly and completely destroyed.

Gun Law Weekend

First, my thanks to all for the good wishes. I’ve been less-than-happy at the slow pace, but also got reminded today that I’m still not three weeks out from the latest surgery. I could have sworn it was four-plus. Given that, it’s going amazingly well. Trying an experiment in ditching the sling for a bit to write, will see how it goes. Nice not having to be archy or ee for a bit.

Second, thanks to a very nice person I got the chance to attend Guy Relford‘s Indiana Gun Law Class at Indy Arms this last Saturday. For those not in Indiana, Guy Relford is not only the founder of the 2A Project, but a practicing Constitutional Law attorney specializing in the Second Amendment, and has also helped write a fair bit of current Indiana gun law. Still a few changes he would like to see made, and I hope he gets the chance to make them.

Those who know me, know I push for people — especially first time gun buyers — to take such a course. Ignorance of the law never works out in your favor, and there is a LOT of bad info out there. You need a law course as much or more (esp. if you live in an ‘interesting’ state) as you need good firearm/tactical training.

When I first moved to Indiana, a small-town police chief I got to know gave me a decent quick overview as he helped me apply for my carry permit. It is more than just a concealed permit, more on that in a minute. The laws have changed a LOT since then, and I’ve been wanting to take the class for a while now. It’s the first step to getting back to where I need to be after the lightning strike and shoulder replacements.

So, Saturday was five-plus hours of high-quality instruction on Indiana gun law, as well as use-of-force and other related topics. This included getting into the actual laws (and regulations) and going through same. There were a lot of good questions, good discussions, and citation of actual events and cases to make points.

Yes, Indiana is now (thanks in part to Mr. Relford) a Constitutional Carry state. That said, it is still a very good idea to go ahead and get that carry permit as doing so helps you via exemptions (such as within 1,000 feet of a school) as well as being honored in a number of other states. Take the course to learn how and why.

I’m not going to go into details, but we went over everything from who is a prohibited possessor and what convictions can be expunged after various periods of time — and what can’t ever be expunged — to transfers. The course covers when and where you can carry (and how) to the differences between use of force and use of deadly force.

I’ve got multiple pages of notes on those topics and even on things like curtilage as it applies to Castle Doctrine. In short, it was an amazing class where I learned a lot. I also learned a phrase to use if I am ever involved in a shooting or deadly force situation, and some other tips on same.

Glad to learn that phrase and some other suggestions on interactions. The last time I had formal use-of-force training was during Air Force Security Police Augmenter training several (cough) decades ago. Since policy at the time was shoot for extremities, I learned then ‘Sir, in the stress of the moment I reverted to training and fired for center of target.’ The phrases I learned Saturday are a huge improvement and will do a lot more to help keep me out of trouble.

Seriously, if you are a gun owner in Indiana, regardless of if you carry or not, you need to take this or a similar course. I can highly recommend this one, and do so unreservedly. This is time and money extremely well spent.

As I noted above, I’m using this as the start of re-learning to shoot. Between the lightning hit and getting new shoulders, I want to drop back and effectively start over. It’s a chance to re-learn, discard any bad habits, and build up better than before. Funny, I’ve done it a couple of times in terms of shooting and photography, and each time I came out the richer for it. For photography, both at Playboy and then again a few years ago, the concept of ‘forget what you know and relearn from the ground up’ resulted in huge improvements. For firearms, some training around the AFSPA program and some later tactical and related training vastly improved my shooting and response capabilities. Any help so doing now is very much appreciated.

So, an amazing and educational Saturday! It was good to meet Mr. Relford in person, as previously we had only engaged on social media. Give him a follow on X/Twitter if you are on there. Seems like a good man to sit down and smoke a cigar with and get to know.

Thoughts & Sea Changes

This post has resulted in a number of good comments, some questions, and a bit of thinking on my part. The latter has focused on trying to parse out the key changes that I’m seeing from last Saturday, though some has gone into the questions.

I’m already seeing far too many idiots (far too kind a descriptor) saying that the attack was some form of “inside job” by Israel. Did Israeli intelligence blow this? Yes, and I think the good professor has it right in his analysis — and warning to our own overly politicized intelligence agencies. Add to it that the smart wall may have indeed been very smart; however, its communications were set up to be a single-point failure. Hamas got a lot of outside help on this, and not just from Iran. Help that figured out how to knock that com out so that the wall gave no warning.

Help that encouraged the barbaric to be even more barbaric than usual. You can find online recordings of some of the terrorists admitting that they went for mass rape in an effort to humiliate and defile. Not that Hamas has never needed much encouragement to murder and rape (often in that order, nor are they particular about the biological sex of those they rape). Hamas, like most Islamic terrorists (and I include the Mad Mullahs in this) are scared of strong women, which enrages them, and they then use rape as a weapon seeking to humiliate, degrade, and destroy in a vain effort to hide their inferiority and other shortcomings.

This, however, was something more than usual. This time, they broadcast it to the world. Not just from their phones and such, but they deliberately took the phones of the people they attacked, and used them to film the rapes and murders and then send those photos and videos out on the victim’s social media. I think that this assessment is right, and a part of it was an effort to create a “dead zone” such that they could move into it.

That said, I am in general agreement with those who believe that Hamas had hoped to seize and hold territory, and planed to use videos both to show that they had hostages, and what would happen if Israel tried to free them or take back the seized territory. It’s a tactic that has worked (to some extent) before on the world stage and even within the Middle East. Negotiations, concessions, with the progressives in the West leading the charge for a “peaceful resolution” to the situation. Never mind that such always brings much worse in its wake. Danegeld.

The effort, however, has backfired dramatically and even their fellow travelers and anti-Semites that are the progressives are unable to provide normal assistance. In fact, some of the factions that have backed those progressive politicians and various progressive fads/efforts are bolting from the cause. Student progressives are waking up to the fact that joining in to celebrate and advance rape and murder has real-world consequences. The apologists for them are working overtime to try to shift the Overton window to cover them even as they eagerly seek ways to try to make Hamas and the people of Gaza into the victims.

By the way, make notes on who is not only openly supporting, even celebrating, the rapes and murders, but also on who is trying to provide cover for them. When people tell you who and what they are, pay attention, make lists anywhere but on Google (Do Evil! having become their motto long ago), as you want them no where near you and yours. It is not even a half step from celebrating and excusing such to doing such. Don’t believe me? You need to study some history and a few very interesting psych experiments.

Do I think that a large number of so-called liberals, much less progressives, are going to see the light and re-think things? No. However, I do think some will and it’s those in the middle-ground that can swing things. That does represent a small sea change and I would love to encourage it. Not wanting to be associated with rape, murder, beheadings and such is an effective motivator for change and even some introspection.

The larger sea change is something I’m still trying to pin down, but is best summed up in that the old ways are no longer working. Hamas and Gaza are in the process of learning that the traditional ‘Israeli overreaction’ scenario as well as that of them being the victims isn’t flying. Outside of their fellow travelers, no one is buying that and the progressives are not (yet) riding to the rescue via ‘international pressure’ on Israel not to retaliate. Public opinion has turned (for now) and outside of the progressives people are saying it is past time to deal with the problem and those behind them.

The Mad Mullahs and others seriously miscalculated the effect of broadcasting the rapes and murders. They miscalculated the effect of the barbarity. The result wasn’t humiliation and terror, but anger. Not just in Israel, but around the world. The efforts to encourage support around the world has exposed networks and individuals in place in other countries. At least some are paying attention and being sure to identify those most active (and aggressive), for all that politicians world-wide seem eager to avoid acknowledging the problem. That said, those rallies across the country and the world have caused some in LE and Intel to sit up, take notice, and otherwise have what is known as an ‘Oh Shit!’ moment.

These are symptoms of the change, but what it bodes long-term is yet to be determined. A better definition of the change is yet to be determined. It’s much more than just a few people having a form of a ‘Road to Damascus’ moment, but what and how are things still being pinned down. It is, however, likely to make life interesting as few seem to realize things have changed, especially some of the key players world-wide.

To go back to the networks here and elsewhere, I was asked about my thoughts on targets. I think it depends on which group is involved. In terms of what some here may have been thinking, I believe they thought they could control a significant amount of those coming in and use them much like BLM during the ‘Summer of Love.’ Which also seems to answer the question of if BLM or Antifa were the Brown Shirts. To me, looks like the avowed Marxists (see their own statements) won that dubious prize, and it looks like Antifa got somewhat double-crossed in the process. Wondering if that might be a result of realizing that Antifa has some interesting ties overseas and might be taking its orders from eleswhere and not here as good little troops. Hmmmmm.

Given where some of the Antifa leadership is reported to have gotten their training, I find it interesting that some of the attacks (probes) on our power grid seem to also be tied to certain parts of Europe according to some reports I’ve seen. Betting in both cases that those who train and lead may not speak Russian, but I bet those who trained them did. Bet they are tied together in other ways too.

Target selection here depends on which group. I suspect the Chinese controlled groups will go for military and infrastructure. Hard to do much about an attack on Taiwan if we can’t get planes off the ground, ships to sea, or other such delights. Russian backed is much the same, though I would expect them to hit more at the power grid and food. Those backed by the Mad Mullahs and similar will hit soft targets and go for general rape and murder in order to humiliate, terrorize, and show dominance over the Great Satan. There are some other groups rumored to have people here courtesy of our insecure southern border that might go for different, or at least different combinations.

Short version is that I see our power grid, transportation, food production and distribution as the “serious” targets, with schools, events (raves/concerts anyone?), religious services and other soft targets being the choice of the terrorist crowd. I can also see some of the serious crowd using the soft-target crowd as cover so they can do things and make it look like a part of the terror. I also think that if you live in a Blue city, things will be very bad. The idea was (I think) to make you scared and willing to give up freedoms for the illusion of safety. That plays right into the terrorist/soft-target crowd and they may well ramp that up on their own.

That’s it for right now, still trying to get a finger on the pulse of the change. That things did change last Saturday is a given, but trying to pin down the change or changes is interesting. Stay safe, be prepared, and keep your things where you can find them in the dark.

Oh, and for those interested, Megiddo is not near Gaza. That’s a bit of a relief actually…

Past Reading For A Better Future

I’d been planning to write this post for a while, but had wanted to approach it a bit differently. Yesterday’s post, however, reinforced the need to get this out there. For all that I think a number of schemes have gone south on people, I am very much afraid we are in for interesting times. How much so, well, that’s part of the question.

While some of this does very much apply to the political and other struggles to come, much of it looks beyond those to what comes after.

Regime change, be it from within or without, is a daunting task. It takes far more than a mere force of arms to effect such. It does indeed quite often take arms, but it also takes education, the shaping and sharing of public opinion, a hope if not a plan for something better, and acts of political will. It takes a cadre of sharp and dedicated people who understand not only what’s at stake, but the security to plan and implement those plans.

Historically, most revolutions fail. From the Gunpowder Plot to the Whiskey Rebellion, from the Nubian Revolt in ancient Egypt to the Rebellion of the Three Guards in ancient China, few revolutions succeed. Of those that meet the immediate goal and win the immediate victory, they often rapidly lose the peace with extreme and brutal results. The French Revolution being but one example.

As such, few today (particularly amongst the younger generations) appreciate just how unique and unusual the American Revolution is from almost any vantage point. The Founding Fathers not only laid the philosophical groundwork within the colonies (shaping public opinion), but also the diplomatic and logistical groundwork needed for success. Success being not just overthrowing the Crown, but in establishing over time a novel government founded on the belief that reasonable people could make decisions on their own not only in their best interest, but in the best interest of the country as a whole.

Philosophically, it is a novel and still relatively new idea. Historically, the concept had been that the peasants could not and were not capable of self-rule and therefore needed kings and nobles (however they were labeled) to make such decisions for them. Thus, the new nation that was the United States became known to many as “The Great Experiment.” For all that there had been various Republics before (to appease the pedantic) none had truly taken the concept as far as did our Founding Fathers.

Why and how they did so lies in what they read, and the public debates and discussions of same. It also owes a small bit to the fiction they enjoyed, and shared with each other, spouses, and in some cases the public. All of this presented a common frame of reference that spanned all strata of colonial society. That common frame of reference is something that existed up until the last century, and it’s wanton and willful destruction is a topic for another day.

What we desperately need now and in the days ahead is to re-establish that common framework and add to it. Not to foment revolution, rather, to remind ourselves of the true philosophical foundations of our government and to provide goals for securing individual liberty no matter what may come. To ensuring that current generations, especially the younger, understand the concepts of Natural Law and proper discourse.

However, allow me to start with some of the fiction that our Founding Fathers read, and add to it a bit.

The Expedition of Humphrey Clinker – Tobias Smollett

Beauty and the Beast – Jeanne-Marie Le Prince de Beaumont

Tristram Shandy – Laurence Sterne

To those I would add: The Honor Harrington series by David Weber; Troy Rising series by John Ringo; The Probability Broach by L. Neil Smith; and the 1632 series by Eric Flint (et al). Feel free to add to this list in the comments.

Now, given the rampant censorship, the idea that words are violence, and a general loathing of actual discourse in today’s youth (and others) a book that caught the eye of the Founding Fathers was Rules of Civility by Brookhiser. There was another that is slipping my mind on civil discourse (stupid lightning) that helped set the stage for the discussions and debates that preceded the Revolution. If anyone knows which it was, or if you have suggestions for more modern takes that encourage respect, consideration, and discourse, please add them to the comments.

As for the other works that set the stage for what became America, go here. The list is extensive and while I do have my favorites, a perusal of most of these is rewarding all on its own. As is reading the letters and debates (Federalist Papers for one example) that surround the move from the Articles of Confederation to what became our Constitution.

The Constitution, with the Bill of Rights, is one of the most amazing documents of governance ever written. Could it be improved? Perhaps. Personally I’d love to slip term limits and some additional blocks on the expansion of Federal power into it, but I’m biased.

Civics needs to be restored as a part of our education, be it in schools or unofficially through other means. Understanding our nation, it’s founding, and the philosophical framework of The Great Experiment is essential to the Republic and to our future. It is even more important to navigating interesting times and what lies after.

Knowing why the Founding Fathers made the choices they did, not just in governance, but in deciding when and how to act and the framework that went into the Revolution and what came after is still important today. I suspect it may be even more so to the future. Knowing these things is a way to avoid mistakes and excesses, and to ensuring the continuation of the Republic.