FM had a good comment on my previous Gaza post, and my reply forms a good bit of today’s post. The question has been what the everliving did Iran and Hamass think they were doing with Tet II, especially with the recordings and broadcasts of the rapes, torture, and murders?
There are two things to consider on that. First, they didn’t consider the audience. Rather, for cultural reasons, it never even occurred to them that most sane people would react in horror. They had no concept of any audience other than radical Islamists like themselves. To them, the videos would be a message of power for Hamass and a message of terror for Israel. The sight of what was done would drive Israeli’s away from the land, turning it into a ghost land they could then take over. They also counted on their allies and other useful idiots to run cover for them in the media and on the world stage. The allies and idiots are trying, but as Sarah notes, it’s not really sticking.
Second, they didn’t stick to plan. This may seem a little out there, but it does make sense. Thanks to Evergreen Intel, I found this article in The Times of Israel that puts forth the idea that the original plan had been to push towards Tel Aviv but the music festival surprised and distracted them. Instead of pushing on to pose a threat, both the initial assault and the follow-on wave of “civilians” got pulled into the easy rape and killing of those at the festival. This eliminated the ability to pose a threat that would have focused military and political leadership on Hamass and Gaza.
Why do that? Maybe because an Israel focused on the threat and the need to take back military bases and settlements would have diverted attention from, and pulled resources away from, the north, allowing Hezbollah and others to attack lightly held positions. With that going on, who would have been surprised if the West Bank might not have gone up in flames? Others? Best case, Israel would be destroyed. If not, fighting a multi-front war would have allowed Hamass to fall back with hostages to negotiate from a position of power in the worst case.
However, plans created in bubbles rarely work when dealing with realities outside said bubble. Make no mistake, Hamass (and the mad mullahs) live in a bubble. They have turned Gaza into a multi-generational bed of terrorism and militant islamism that is now well documented and shared around the world. From cradle to grave the people of Gaza are raised to hate Israel, the U.S., and others, and trained to kill. Don’t believe me? Check out this poll and the decent analysis here. The idiotic bleatings in regards a two-state solution won’t work with the mindset within Gaza. Think the poll is off? Check out other polls and previous polls, as the numbers have been extremely consistent for years.
It wasn’t the intention of Iran or Hamass, but what they did accomplish outside the bubble was to wake up a lot of people. Not just to the reality of Hamass and Gaza, but to other things as well. Things like the Second Amendment and the right to self-defense. Things like the rampant antisemitism within progressive/Marxist politics. Things like speech and other actions having consequences. Things that are working to derail a lot of progressive/Marxist efforts here and abroad.
The latter has been a rather rude awakening for many, who performed the progressive virtue signalling (or flat-out psychotic rage) of ripping down the posters of those kidnapped by Hamass, or making antisemitic remarks. They are used to being those protected and cancelling others. They are really not liking it now that it has consequences for them.
Am I worried about the current “pause” and prisoner exchange? Yes. Those trying to hamstring Israel as it rightly (and righteously) works to eliminate Hamass (including the Biden Regency) want either the status quo or for Israel to be destroyed. Period. The status quo is for continuing the terrorism and for Israel not to be secure in its own borders. The ultimate destruction of Israel is a cornerstone of the progressive/Marxist mindset. My take on both is that both are evil.
My hope is that the government of Israel knows what it is doing. Part of me hopes they are placing those prisoners they release for this into a place where they get the chance to die with the rest of Hamass. Otherwise, the pause is just another chance for Hamass to rearm, resupply, and work to have their patrons find a way to try to return to the status quo. For all I don’t think that’s going to happen this time, I also don’t want to see Israel take any more casualties than it has to. I also don’t want Israel to find itself where it can be pressured or pushed by those who wish it ill (and I do include the Biden Regency in that group).
Hamass went full Tet, and the above gives a theory as to why they went full Tet. For now, may they reap the whirlwind and be utterly and completely destroyed.
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If this is Tet II, let’s not forget that Tet I ultimately worked out quite well for the Commies. Tet II can work out quite well for the Gazans too. This hostage deal will stop the Israeli offense for at least four or five days. It will be more difficult for them to start over, and the trade of hostages for criminals confirms in the Gazan minds that Tet II worked. And, we see in America and elsewhere that there is a lot more support for the Gazans and their tactics than there was not so long ago, and that support is much higher in younger demographics. So, their support will be even stronger in 10 or 20 years than it is now.
Tet I did indeed work out well for the commies, as in the North Vietnamese. It wiped out the Viet Cong, which suited the North just fine. As the Diplomad noted in the link, it really raises the question of why hamass would agree to start in Tet II. As for the younger generation, I fear that their education is just starting, and unfortunately it will be very painful for us all.
I hope that I am wrong, but lots of people never lose the opportunity to lose an opportunity.
And, one more thing, I understand why the Israelis are doing this deal. It’s a very small country where each life is treasured. There are almost certainly some Israeli cabinet members that know some of the hostages so the dynamic is much different from the one in larger countries.
It is easy to understand, and I hope they do get the 50. Frankly, I’m amazed that many are still alive. I was putting my bets on it being closer to a dozen or so still alive. Let’s just hope that they can get them all, and still go on to eliminate hamass.
here in the West many masks slipped / were taken off / were gleefully thrown away in the wake of Oct 7. despite those actions showing hard consequences for once, many in the days since have not retreated from their now revealed positions. I hear too many folks still uncritically using “colonizer” language for a variety of things, despite hamass showing exactly what decolonizing is meant to be. Maybe its just massive tone deafness, maybe its just the loud wailings of a failing position, but what if its the emboldened choosing to damn the consequences because they feel they have the power to. I fear the West has yet to find its resolve
The West has not, yet. I still have hope, but also fear that we are about to live in interesting and painful times.
The thing with Iran pushing Ham-Ass into this attack to derail the Saudis: The House of Saud has already signaled, very publicly, that they are continuing towards normalization once the kerfuffle is settled down, so Saud 1 Iran 0 on that attempt.
I have seen a few comments from some remaining old-Saud rulering class guys, with no current position or portfolio in the government, trying to push the “support the Pallys at all costs”, but the younger new-Saud fellows who are actually running the show nowadays and have a very clear viewpoint on who is the threat in their neighborhood are almost universally being very publicly pragmatic, signaling they are slowing things down while the fighting is going on but not changing course one little bit.
The larger issue there is the Saudis hooking up with the Middle Kingdom. Obviously they assessed Biden after the Afghanistan fiasco and decided they could not afford to not spread out their bets. But Xi getting his hooks into The Middle East would be a major strategic problem for the US.
Very much agree, and we don’t want to see Xi getting any more of a foothold there. One of the more interesting ideas I’ve seen come up is that Israel may try to have the Saudi’s involved in what comes after, and not just with providing LE functions. I think that could be a great step.