This post has resulted in a number of good comments, some questions, and a bit of thinking on my part. The latter has focused on trying to parse out the key changes that I’m seeing from last Saturday, though some has gone into the questions.
I’m already seeing far too many idiots (far too kind a descriptor) saying that the attack was some form of “inside job” by Israel. Did Israeli intelligence blow this? Yes, and I think the good professor has it right in his analysis — and warning to our own overly politicized intelligence agencies. Add to it that the smart wall may have indeed been very smart; however, its communications were set up to be a single-point failure. Hamas got a lot of outside help on this, and not just from Iran. Help that figured out how to knock that com out so that the wall gave no warning.
Help that encouraged the barbaric to be even more barbaric than usual. You can find online recordings of some of the terrorists admitting that they went for mass rape in an effort to humiliate and defile. Not that Hamas has never needed much encouragement to murder and rape (often in that order, nor are they particular about the biological sex of those they rape). Hamas, like most Islamic terrorists (and I include the Mad Mullahs in this) are scared of strong women, which enrages them, and they then use rape as a weapon seeking to humiliate, degrade, and destroy in a vain effort to hide their inferiority and other shortcomings.
This, however, was something more than usual. This time, they broadcast it to the world. Not just from their phones and such, but they deliberately took the phones of the people they attacked, and used them to film the rapes and murders and then send those photos and videos out on the victim’s social media. I think that this assessment is right, and a part of it was an effort to create a “dead zone” such that they could move into it.
That said, I am in general agreement with those who believe that Hamas had hoped to seize and hold territory, and planed to use videos both to show that they had hostages, and what would happen if Israel tried to free them or take back the seized territory. It’s a tactic that has worked (to some extent) before on the world stage and even within the Middle East. Negotiations, concessions, with the progressives in the West leading the charge for a “peaceful resolution” to the situation. Never mind that such always brings much worse in its wake. Danegeld.
The effort, however, has backfired dramatically and even their fellow travelers and anti-Semites that are the progressives are unable to provide normal assistance. In fact, some of the factions that have backed those progressive politicians and various progressive fads/efforts are bolting from the cause. Student progressives are waking up to the fact that joining in to celebrate and advance rape and murder has real-world consequences. The apologists for them are working overtime to try to shift the Overton window to cover them even as they eagerly seek ways to try to make Hamas and the people of Gaza into the victims.
By the way, make notes on who is not only openly supporting, even celebrating, the rapes and murders, but also on who is trying to provide cover for them. When people tell you who and what they are, pay attention, make lists anywhere but on Google (Do Evil! having become their motto long ago), as you want them no where near you and yours. It is not even a half step from celebrating and excusing such to doing such. Don’t believe me? You need to study some history and a few very interesting psych experiments.
Do I think that a large number of so-called liberals, much less progressives, are going to see the light and re-think things? No. However, I do think some will and it’s those in the middle-ground that can swing things. That does represent a small sea change and I would love to encourage it. Not wanting to be associated with rape, murder, beheadings and such is an effective motivator for change and even some introspection.
The larger sea change is something I’m still trying to pin down, but is best summed up in that the old ways are no longer working. Hamas and Gaza are in the process of learning that the traditional ‘Israeli overreaction’ scenario as well as that of them being the victims isn’t flying. Outside of their fellow travelers, no one is buying that and the progressives are not (yet) riding to the rescue via ‘international pressure’ on Israel not to retaliate. Public opinion has turned (for now) and outside of the progressives people are saying it is past time to deal with the problem and those behind them.
The Mad Mullahs and others seriously miscalculated the effect of broadcasting the rapes and murders. They miscalculated the effect of the barbarity. The result wasn’t humiliation and terror, but anger. Not just in Israel, but around the world. The efforts to encourage support around the world has exposed networks and individuals in place in other countries. At least some are paying attention and being sure to identify those most active (and aggressive), for all that politicians world-wide seem eager to avoid acknowledging the problem. That said, those rallies across the country and the world have caused some in LE and Intel to sit up, take notice, and otherwise have what is known as an ‘Oh Shit!’ moment.
These are symptoms of the change, but what it bodes long-term is yet to be determined. A better definition of the change is yet to be determined. It’s much more than just a few people having a form of a ‘Road to Damascus’ moment, but what and how are things still being pinned down. It is, however, likely to make life interesting as few seem to realize things have changed, especially some of the key players world-wide.
To go back to the networks here and elsewhere, I was asked about my thoughts on targets. I think it depends on which group is involved. In terms of what some here may have been thinking, I believe they thought they could control a significant amount of those coming in and use them much like BLM during the ‘Summer of Love.’ Which also seems to answer the question of if BLM or Antifa were the Brown Shirts. To me, looks like the avowed Marxists (see their own statements) won that dubious prize, and it looks like Antifa got somewhat double-crossed in the process. Wondering if that might be a result of realizing that Antifa has some interesting ties overseas and might be taking its orders from eleswhere and not here as good little troops. Hmmmmm.
Given where some of the Antifa leadership is reported to have gotten their training, I find it interesting that some of the attacks (probes) on our power grid seem to also be tied to certain parts of Europe according to some reports I’ve seen. Betting in both cases that those who train and lead may not speak Russian, but I bet those who trained them did. Bet they are tied together in other ways too.
Target selection here depends on which group. I suspect the Chinese controlled groups will go for military and infrastructure. Hard to do much about an attack on Taiwan if we can’t get planes off the ground, ships to sea, or other such delights. Russian backed is much the same, though I would expect them to hit more at the power grid and food. Those backed by the Mad Mullahs and similar will hit soft targets and go for general rape and murder in order to humiliate, terrorize, and show dominance over the Great Satan. There are some other groups rumored to have people here courtesy of our insecure southern border that might go for different, or at least different combinations.
Short version is that I see our power grid, transportation, food production and distribution as the “serious” targets, with schools, events (raves/concerts anyone?), religious services and other soft targets being the choice of the terrorist crowd. I can also see some of the serious crowd using the soft-target crowd as cover so they can do things and make it look like a part of the terror. I also think that if you live in a Blue city, things will be very bad. The idea was (I think) to make you scared and willing to give up freedoms for the illusion of safety. That plays right into the terrorist/soft-target crowd and they may well ramp that up on their own.
That’s it for right now, still trying to get a finger on the pulse of the change. That things did change last Saturday is a given, but trying to pin down the change or changes is interesting. Stay safe, be prepared, and keep your things where you can find them in the dark.
Oh, and for those interested, Megiddo is not near Gaza. That’s a bit of a relief actually…
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“They miscalculated the effect of the barbarity. The result wasn’t humiliation and terror, but anger.”
I am not surprised that the mullahs find the western regard for children incomprehensible. It is likely simply alien to them.
It’s cultural mapping, thinking the way you and everyone you personally know thinks is how other cultures think – as an example, compare the reaction of a typical male head of household in the Middle East to their female child being raped, empirically quite different than that of a western parent. That is why the rage and retribution against the female victims in those societies is so incomprehensible to westerners.
The same lesson applies to our side as well. As Sarah Hoyt notes, the assumptions that apply our culture to others, thinking foreigners are “just like us”, except with colorful clothes and different food, is often just incomprehensibly wrong, and can yield violently incorrect predictions of those cultures behaviors and reactions.
The mullahs and Gazans could not think outside their cultural box, and now they get to reap the results.
Good points and thanks for making them. The failure to understand cultural mapping/mores has long dogged intel and international politics. Appreciate the comment.
A good point — the mullahs made a ‘process of mind’ error — they thought that the barbarity would cow Westerners because their preconceived idea of Westerners is incorrect. Process of mind errors are common in world and national leaderships because such people believe that they ‘know’ their enemy, and they are often wrong in it. They thus make assumptions that lead to substantial, and sometimes fatal, military errors. Classic military strategists work very hard to avoid process of mind errors, and sometimes they also miss.
Good points, thanks for raising them.
I’d be interested in your thoughts regarding this podcast by Bret Weinstein
The Israel Attacks: Beyond the Obvious with Efrat Fenigson
Gets interesting around the 27 minute mark till the end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_IAH7PnS_E
I will try to check that out here soon.
Yes, the Narrative is losing;
Search
“forward.com/news/564587/stanford-university-jewish-students-instructor-hamas/”
“Do I think that a large number of so-called liberals, much less progressives, are going to see the light and re-think things? No. However, I do think some will ….”
Give it another week of media focus on casualties and damage wrought by Israel’s strikes on Gaza. I think you will be disappointed. Progressives are run by ideology, feelings and habit, not thought, not facts.
I don’t want to post a lot on this topic here, because I don’t want to give too much away to the bad guys. But they are making a lot of mistakes that make them vulnerable to law enforcement (or to the security establishment, if it ever gets to that). All it really takes is the political will to roll them up.
I’ve become convinced that there were conscious decisions in 2020 not to give them the Winter Palace moment they wanted so badly, particularly at the White House. These people (or their leaders, anyway) know their communist history (in many cases having grown up steeped in it), and they wanted 2020 to be 1905. I believe that the regular Democrats stealing the election set the Revolution back by at least a decade. They really thought they would have 4 more years of the hated Orange Man to build the above-the-surface coalition of fellow travelers and front organizations for urban action, while below the surface they would be able to move to Stage 1 urban guerrilla warfare.
“I’m already seeing far too many idiots (far too kind a descriptor) saying that the attack was some form of “inside job” by Israel. Did Israeli intelligence blow this? Yes”
It is not credible that Israeli intelligence didn’t know about this attack before it happened; the attack is too large in scope, and rehearsals for it would have been obvious, the tech on the border too sophisticated, etc. And if this is true, there is only one tiny step between that and “they had a hand in it”. Is it inconceivable that a government would slaughter its own people to gain territory, political advantage, money from its allies? Have we seen this behavior before?
Call me whatever you want. The arabs and the jews have been fighting over that patch of land for thousands of years, and this is only the most recent atrocity of a long, unbroken chain of atrocities committed by both sides over the millennia. I am deeply saddened by the death of innocents, and it is always the innocents who die, and will continue to die, on both sides. I am sick of it beyond words.
And now they are being pushed out of there, to no doubt come here.
1. The most common mistake in intelligence involves mores (cultural blinders)/cultural mapping/process of mind errors (no, not completely the same but for general purposes they can be discussed as such.
2. Interleaved with that, in second place, is what can be diplomatically referred to as political mapping, which is that local domestic politics and the narratives of the party take precedence over all other things, including reality. Within that, playing politics above all is part and party.
3. Given that Prof. Reynolds and I both get into that, you either did not read what we wrote; you have the reading comprehension of a stoned gerbil; or, we should embrace the healing power of “and” in regards your comment.
4. Final rule: in any and all massive intelligence failures, someone, usually several someones, has seen the problem and attempted to raise the alarm. However, one and two both trump reality and those who do see it and do try to raise the alarm are at best voices crying in the wilderness or shunted aside for having the wrong ideas/attitudes. Even after they are proven right. Especially after they are proven right.
5. Re-read what Prof. Reynolds wrote, and what I wrote. Mayhaps if Israel (and our) intel agencies spent less time on (illegal) politics and more on their job…
When planning, a cardinal rule is to not plan for what the enemy will, or might, do, but what they are capable of doing.
A much more difficult task because capabilities requires a much larger scope than probabilities. But, since all probabilities extend from capabilities, if one is to be competent, there is no other option.
The issue is further complicated by differences in thought processes; I cannot remember who said this, but paraphrasing what someone in military intelligence during the Iraq/Afgan festivities pointed out that “not only do they think differently from us, they think much differently than we can think.”
Getting inside the enemy’s head is a challenge that has driven intelligence officers into stiff drink and early retirement for millennia; nothing I’ve seen indicates it has gotten even slightly easier.
Iggy
Not a bit easier from what I hear.