Category: Current Events

This morning brings news of another “industrial accident” in Russia. Via OSINTdefender, comes news of a major explosion at the Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant. From video shot on scene, it appears that artillery shells were either being stored there, or were being made/refurbished there. Read the thread for more details, but a couple of things pop out for me.

I’m catching hints that Soviet-era work habits seem to have made a comeback. Drinking on the job, poor quality, poor process control, and more may have returned along with the attitude “They pretend to pay us, so we pretend to work.” It still sort of floors me how many people still don’t know how bad things were in that regard in the USSR.

Clearly such people never had the dubious joy of a bite of Soviet chocolate, which one could be forgiven for suspecting was really compressed excrement. Or examined a Soviet made product of almost any type. Tolerance? What’s a tolerance? “Identical” parts varied wildly, and the instructions seemed to be that if part A fits into part B, go smaller than dimension to be sure it fits.

It wasn’t just a problem in general industry. It extended to the “elite” programs, like their space and missile program. Parts for “identical” spacecraft weren’t interchangeable because each was essentially a custom build shaped around various issues and QC problems. Don’t take my word for it, Jim Oberg and others were writing about this well before the fall. It’s why Soviet rockets had so many engines: they anticipated up to a third failing, so put enough on there to ensure getting to orbit if two thirds did work. You might also want to check out what happened to their Nova moon rocket. They denied it existed for years, but Charles P. Vick dug it out.

The attitude, and drunk/drugged workers, were responsible directly and indirectly for a lot of accidents. Some minor, many not. The number of “accidents” and fires could suggest a return of an old attitude and untrained workers. Word is that what real craftsmen and precision machinists they had have retired, and no one bothered to train up younger people to replace them. On The Job Training is NOT recommended at any point for the manufacture or refurbishment of artillery shells.

The accidents and fires could also suggest that the Russian government has a problem with sabotage. While some of the fires and accidents could be blamed on Ukraine, we are talking what may be a growing number of incidents across Russia. To me, blaming Ukraine for something that happens in the Russian Far East is a bit of a stretch. It is possible, but I’m not sure how probable it is. I know I’ve talked about this a bit before, but there is discontent and it does seem to be growing, and some may be acting out as it were.

Or, if they were working in any way, shape, or form with Soviet-era shells… Aged explosives and propellants tend to be “touchy” as it were, especially if they weren’t stored properly. Or built properly for that matter. Given that we are not seeing a lot of good storage (how many modern tanks will have to be replaced rather than repaired because of poor storage?), handling such is not a job I would take. Oh, if you are not familiar with Soviet/Russian ammo production and storage issues, look up the Northern Fleet explosion and go from there.

It could be any of the three, but don’t expect the truth to come out of Russian media or government. If they can find a way to pin it on someone non-governmental and safely dead…

Oh, you might also want to spend a few minutes on what this tells us about current usable war stocks, production rates, etc. For there are a number of implications when a plant that is supposed to be producing advanced optics and night-vision devices for the military has an apparently large number of artillery rounds on hand. If optical seeker heads were to be added, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to do that at the factory. Rather, one would suspect the components to be sent to depot centers or the original ammunition factory to be mated with the rounds. If you are developing some form of optical seeker, you don’t use, need, or want live rounds in your R&D or manufacturing areas. Live rounds are a pain and a major safety issue. Oh, and don’t forget what this says about the ability to produce those advanced optics and night vision gear desperately needed, if some portion (or all) of the manufacturing facility was turned over to manufacturing or refurbishing artillery shells. Lots to chew on in this one.

As for some caveats above, a lot of the “accidents” are not getting media coverage, especially inside Russia. People are usually very careful in talking about such on social media, as the Russian government is fairly quick these days to go after defeatists and those telling the truth maligning Russia. It’s only when something is so massive it can’t be hidden, like today, that the news gets out. Makes it hard to track events and honest opinions. That said, it’s much easier today than it was back in the day.

Meantime, lots to think about and it would just break my heart (/sarc) if the Russian ability to deliberately target civilians (or much of anything else to be honest) just took a major hit. If anyone has some solid data on production rates of the plant for optics and night-vision, or the percentage of such they provided the military, sing out. Given Russia has gone back to the “one big factory” concept in a big way…

UPDATE 10AUG23: Started hearing yesterday that there was a fireworks company using a warehouse on site, said company reportedly in bankruptcy. There is also speculation about possible “unofficial” ammo production. It will be interesting to see what comes out officially and unofficially. Also, the extent of damage to the main plant is getting debated, and ranges from severe to cosmetic. Again, it will be interesting to see what comes out.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

A few days ago on Twitter, I was asked my thoughts on a new study by Rand entitled: Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence. Here’s my initial thoughts on it and what needs to be done.

Sadly, I don’t think highly of Rand and it’s products, and have not done so for several decades now. Growing up in the 1960s, research and documents from Rand were treated almost as holy writ in the science community. Fact is, they did some good and even amazing work back in the day. Somewhere along the way, however, in my opinion they became just another beltway bandit.

Case in point are the first nine bullet points presented under recommendations which with one exception are meaningless ritual gobbledygook that says you are a serious beltway player who knows the current buzzwords and is prepared to synergize existing resources so as to maximize potential for the advancement of improvement. The only honest part of the nine are those calling for research into multiple new weapons systems that will require lots of expensive studies (like those done by Rand), extensive and expensive R&D, and decades to produce. Yeah, I may have helped write stuff like this before…

Okay, that said, let me back up and take this more in order.

Key Finding One is that warfare has changed since the Cold War. No shit, Sherlock. It’s changed since Desert Storm. I will add that we are insolvent because our current GOFOs are far more interested in focusing on Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity (DIE) than in teaching our troops to fight and win, which is indeed going to cause them to DIE.

Key Finding Two is that our superiority in training, tech, people, etc. is gone. I agree, and it was squandered by feckless leadership and politicians. A good bit of that was/is intentional I think.

Key Finding Three is that we don’t need superiority to defeat peers and near-peers. In the words of Col. Sherman Potter, horsehocky! Yeah, trying to be polite and keep it more PG-13 than the XXX response this topic usually elicits.

Key Finding Four is that it has opened the eyes of NATO members. Snort. Chortle. Braying Laugh. The newer members of NATO have been meeting and even exceeding for a while, even as they have tried to point out the danger while being poo-poohed by the older members in the status quo lounge. Those members, such as Germany, still don’t get the danger that exists, being as they are more focused on the danger to their pockets and all the freebies they offer their people. I might point out that this has also been pointed out for a couple of decades by members of the milblog community and pointedly by the previous administration.

Key Finding Five is that the U.S. and Taiwan have differing ideas on how they should defend themselves, with a hefty slice of implication that Taiwan is wrong.

Now, to go back to Recommendations, with the remaining points being a rendition of buzzword bingo. Encourage meeting commitments, increase stocks, points deducted for saying NATO has an eastern flank (it doesn’t, it has an eastern front…), and the rest is pretty much blather. The points I mention are good, but are couched with caveats that appear to negate them. It is the typical beltway dance, so as not to alarm anyone overseas that we might really mean it this time on commitments or the need for them to increase stocks. This appears to be a solid entry in the status quo club library with some appropriate (condescending) nods to the newer members of NATO.

Now, before I go into my take on some issues, go read the good Commander who makes some hard and valid points. As I’ve pointed out before, all stocks are low to the point of criminally low. Bean-counters made the call, the stocks were reduced, the lines are gone in some cases, and when it comes to D+7, we are going to be Winchester on a lot more than 155. I will leave it to Sal to talk about the horrible state of maintenance in the Navy, and will note that the Air Force has issues of its own.

I will also note that there is a huge problem with retention, not just recruitment. If you can get them, take a look at the number of people coming out early on medical and related. Add in those choosing not to re-up, and we are losing a huge amount of institutional experience at key levels. There is only so much abuse and command toxicity that people are going to take. They are voting with their feet.

Now, I can turn the following into a proper beltway insomnia cure easily enough for the right cash under the table. Meantime, allow me to present a hopefully more entertaining and colorful version with solid proposal underneath. You really want to turn things around?

First: Change of Leadership. No meaningful changes are possible under the current administration or current probable successors within the same party. The attack on warfighters and warfighting capability begun in the Obama administration is a key component of the intentions and operations of current political leadership.

Should circumstances change such that all parties are forced to accept the need for change and the resurrection of an effective and efficient military that wants to and can win engagements and wars, I would argue for a blanket purge of all current GOFOs save any who have spoken out in public against current trends, practices and theories including DIE (and are vouched for by middle-rank enlisted as having kept focus on mission and people). We really do need a clean sweep.

This should be followed by an elimination of TRADOC as it currently exists, and related organizations in other services. Since Vladimir is not likely to nuke Eustis as he wants to hurt us, if I were made ruler of the world even briefly, I would drop my own nuke in the form of enticing Col. Kratman back into service for the sole purpose of eliminating the current system, salting the Earth, and building a new system focused on mission, men, and winning. That truly is the key and it is not what we are currently doing in any service though the Marines seem to be doing better than most.

Finally, we need to stop the war on warfighters in the military. We desperately need to nurture any we find in any service, and even look to see if there is any way to entice proven wartime leadership to return to service.

Second: Procurement. We urgently need realistic warstocks. What a lot of people don’t get is that yes we are ramping up to app. 90,000 rounds of 155 a month. We need to get back to the days where we were producing more than 500,000 rounds a month. And, it’s not just 155. As Sal has pointed out, as I’ve pointed out before, there are a LOT of items where we don’t have the stockpiles and there is no way to rapidly procure more.

Restoring the industrial capacity needed is going to take time we really don’t have. Which means we need to really push to get things going now. If we wait until the ball drops…

We also need to gut and restructure procurement and R&D. Why? Take a look at any of the weapons development efforts by the Army in the last 10 years. Design by committee doesn’t work, and I honestly am not sure whether graft or incompetent micromanagement is the biggest danger to a weapons program. Think I’m joking? We’ve needed a new rifle for a while, where is it? Examine the efforts to develop such, and weep.

Drones, guns, whatever: open things up to a broader array of companies, run X-Prize operations, and find some way to stomp on the Not Invented Here (NIH) mentality that permeates military procurement. DoD is worse about COTS (unless it’s from the inner core of the usual suspects who know how to express gratitude) than NASA used to be about commercial products and operations, and that’s going some. Procurement badly needs to learn the lesson that perfect is the enemy of good enough, and that we don’t have decades to get things done. In fact, in some cases, I would say we have days instead of decades.

While I don’t mean to step on Sal’s or any of the naval bloggers toes, I will share something I saw somewhere on social media: naval leadership needs to look at real ships and readiness in 2025 instead of focusing on paper fleets for 2045. I would argue that the core principle applies to all services right now.

There is more, of course, but these are the two most critical parts of turning around the decline of our military.

On the subject of NATO, there is much that can be said and that needs to be discussed, from expansion to purpose. That said, we need to quit playing around in regards commitments. Given that I’ve discussed Germany (in particular) and others not meeting minimums before, I think we are at a point of fish or cut bait. There isn’t five to ten years for you to comfortably ramp up to the minimum you are obligated to do. You’re going to be lucky to get three. Figure it out, because the days of the U.S. being able to cover everything are done.

Taiwan is a subject for another day. I will simply say that to state or imply that the U.S. ideas on how the defense should be implemented are right and Taiwan’s is wrong is the height of hubris and incompetence. Given that our current leadership is incapable of organizing a drinking party in a distillery, we might should consider asking why they are doing certain things, study the details, and then make suggestions. I’ve already read a number of interesting reports and good suggestions from other milbloggers, so let’s not get too focused on the “experts” who haven’t been right on anything in years.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Sorry, had planned to get one or more things posted yesterday, but weather and basement issues got in the way. The house where I rent a room in the basement was built either in the late 1930s or 1940s, with driveway design and other systems not exactly to modern standards. The sewer system and storm water drains in the neighborhood haven’t really been upgraded since then either I understand.

So, when we first moved in there were some signs of past flooding, and then we experienced some of our own. Yes, I lost some things and had some others damaged in one of them. No, I am not happy about it. Yes, I try to keep on the landlord as needed. To be fair, he’s dropped quite a bit of $$,$$$ on the issue including replacing the sewer line out to the property line and having work done inside as well.

One of the things he did was to install a sump pump in the trench drain across the bottom of the driveway. We have one of those fun drives that goes around the house, and there is a steep drop down to the garage. Guess where the water pours down to from around half the house? The sump pump sends the water up to the front of the house via inch+ line, and thence down the hill to the street.

Been a good system and we’ve had few issues with it in place. However, I’ve been suggesting that he needed to check and test that pump for a bit now. Heck, I want it on a BBS. Yesterday morning, we got storms and the trench drain filled up, overflowed, and was headed to the garage which is in the basement. Multiple checks by me confirmed the pump was not working. We got lucky, and did not flood

In between storms, the landlord checked on the sump pump which was warm or hot to the touch according to him, but not working. He got out an older pump that has to be manually activated, got it hooked to a hose, and it did get used. Had to go move the end of the hose as having the water come back down the drive was counterproductive, and was not amused at being out more than once in all this with lightning in the area (though thankfully at a good distance). New automatic pump is supposed to be delivered today. Needed, as we’ve already had one round of storms early this morning that had me checking things.

Needless to say, that sorta blew my planned posting for yesterday as well as getting to the gym. Instead, I played jack-in-the-box jumping up to check various things. Hoping to get to the gym here in just a bit.

The other day I talked about the uproar around getting Sgt. Gee to Arlington. In part, I noted:

Right now, all we can do is keep digging, wait, and see what comes to light. The true full story may not be what it appears, or it may be far worse than we think.

Jeff Schogol at Task and Purpose has written that the story was incorrect. That the government was never asked for money and did not deny any payment or assistance. I am relieved, but am also left with even more questions, and am not sure things still pass the smell test. As it is, I am glad she is in Arlington, and that her service and death are being honored.

Oh, and on the Russian front (all puns intended), if you’ve been reading that Pringles was dead, arrested, etc., you need to find better sources to read. He’s been in public taking part in diplomatic conferences and doing other things. Good reason to think my suspicions that Wagner is going to pivot to the Middle East and Africa as primary areas of activity seem to be on the mark. Take a look at the coup in Niger and who has just offered troops and other services to the new regime. Pringles and Vladimir may no longer be best buds, but the Kremlin is clearly planning on using Wagner for work overseas.

If needed, remind me that I need to go back to some previous writings and discuss what it will take to ensure peace in Europe (and elsewhere) as what there are some interesting signs in that regard. Still think it very dangerous, but…

Am hoping to get a local politics post up later, as the local situation has some national implications. It also points out why I want to get moved as soon as practical after my next surgery.

UPDATE: Made it to the gym, did well, feel good, added in something to the mix as well. Stopped by a historic diner nearby and grabbed a salad. Their buttermilk chicken is good fried or grilled. The salad will make at least one more meal, if not two. Wow. Local politics may have to wait, as I’m a sated and somewhat sleepy wolf right now.

More soon.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Okay, the Biden Regency is moving to tap the IRR. If memory serves (stupid lightning) the last time we did this was the First Gulf War. W considered it during the GWOT but if I remember correctly (and a veteran on social media is right) it ended up being extremely limited to some very specialized MOS. The howls of outrage from the media and elsewhere over even thinking of tapping the IRR were long and loud. Word is, those forced back in during FGW were far from happy (massive understatement) and made that known.

For the GWOT, I would note that things were done to allow IRR who wanted to return to volunteer to do so. While there were (apparently) a few very select MOS pulled back involuntarily, a number did indeed volunteer to return.

For those not familiar, there are two elements to our national military reserve. When you sign on that dotted line, you are not just signing up for a single hitch, no matter what you may think. While you have options, you also incur some non-discretionary obligations.

Most people are familiar with the Selected Reserve (SELRES) where people join the National Guard or Reserve after an active-duty hitch or hitches, and maintain active status while participating in regular drills, training, etc. You maintain an active military ID and at need you can get that bright and joyous notice that you are recalled to active duty.

A lot of the public is unfamiliar with the IRR, or Individual Ready Reserve. Technically, that’s pretty much anyone who has ever served. Some in the IRR are completing terms of military service, and the fact that IRR members can be involuntarily recalled is often downplayed IMO. The idea is to have a cadre of (semi) trained troops that can be called upon “in time of national crisis.” In other words, something really bad has happened.

IRR does not maintain current military ID, does not drill or participate in regular training, draw uniforms, etc. They do have to do a yearly readiness screening. Cough.

So, drawing on the IRR is not something one does lightly. Those recalled have to be brought back in, the rust blown off, and unless they are recently detached that takes time. Those pulled back in involuntarily are likely to be a bit grumpy and uncooperative. Cough.

So, the decision by the Biden Regency to use the IRR is raising eyebrows in the military/veteran community. I’ve heard rumors that this particular action in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve is normal and happens every year. However, I’ve not been able to confirm that and people who should know if it is true or not have not said it is. Going to keep an ear open on that.

The use of Guard/Reserve troops in support is not surprising. There are units that are tasked to step into various roles, including critical roles, in the event of war and that they would take part is a given (and smart). It’s the use of IRR that is concerning.

Absent a national crisis that has depleted resources in Active and Guard/Reserve formations, or pulling a few people with extremely select MOS, why hit the IRR?

I fear it says much about our readiness, manning, and capabilities. If we are in a position where Active and Guard/Reserve formations can’t provide enough manpower (and the correct manpower), we are in deep trouble. Then again, we’ve known the military was in trouble for a while. That said, the use of the IRR would tend to indicate that things are a lot worse than we thought.

This is another one of those where I hope I’m wrong and the info I getting from those I trust is wrong. I really hope this is just limited to a very small number of people with a very specific MOS who have recently left service. Otherwise, what it says about our ability to fight a one-front war, much less the two-front we are supposed to be capable fighting, borders on terrifying.

NOTE: VodkaPundit has, as usual, a good take on this.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

I knew last night it was going to be interesting when I heard from multiple sources that FORTRESS had been activated in Moscow and loyal troops (or at least troops with loyalty that could be assured by various means) were being sent to secure key facilities. Lots of RUMINT flying around along with some interesting reports.

This morning sees a so-far successful march towards Moscow that I’m having a hard time believing happened on the fly. All the Wagner ops so far show prior planning and preparation. Rather than a coup, this comes across as a revolution and yes there is a difference.

The Russian governmental response so far evokes the term-of-art “clusterfuck.” They appear to have been caught flat-footed and without a clue on how to respond. Attacks on the Moscow column appear to be piecemeal and uncoordinated. The only active opposition in Rostov is coming from Kadyrov’s Chechen troops (apparently). Attacking fuel depots is an interesting choice that will have little immediate impact in this case.

Which brings us to the heart of the matter. This may succeed, even if completely crushed. For all that a number of regional politicians and others are swearing loyalty to Vladimir, one does have to question the sincerity. Others are either hopping on the Prighozin bandwagon or stirring the waters on their own. At least one nominally independent member of the Federation has informed Vladimir that his country regards this as a purely internal Russian matter.

More concerning for Moscow should be how fast things went from ‘who are you and you need to go’ by the citizens of Rostov-on-Don to the Wagner troops, to the citizens bringing food and drink to those same troops. Look at the reactions of the average citizens to the March on Moscow. Hell, if the SIGINT intercept reports are true in regards the chatter in and between various Russian units in Ukraine/Crimea, the Russian MoD might be getting ready to have a Very Bad Day, if not more.

What’s more, Vladimir’s attack dog turned on him. This matters to Russian mores in a way few Westerners can grasp. Here, we are used to politicians having all the loyalty of jackals coming upon road kill. Things work different there. This is going to be seen as a weakness, a vulnerability, even if Prighozin fails.

For now, we can but wait and watch. I think the only sure thing is that it is going to be interesting.

UPDATE: Interesting is one word, that’s for sure. Does not add up based on what we know. Ergo, there’s more, and more people, involved than we know. Knowing who’s fingers were in this is even more important now. Keeping the ears open and waiting to see what happens next.