I’ve been wanting to do an update on the Coup That Hasn’t Ended, but life has been interesting. I particularly wanted to do a link-filled bit of info, but that day is not this day, even if I am not quite typing one handed anymore. Call it 1.2 handed, as I am limited as to how much and how I can use the right hand and arm.
If you are believing anything in corporate media, drop as much as you can to my fundraiser as I have a bridge for you! As I noted earlier, if you think the fat lady has sung, I’m not sure she’s even in the building yet, much less warming up. Even by Russian mores, this is the most bizarre coup in history. It makes the Kornilov affair seem straightforward. And I do recommend looking that over to better understand what is going on now.
Short version as I have to go to the doc this morning: as noted before there were silent partners in the Wagner revolt. For reasons I’m not completely sure of myself, I find myself loving the nickname “Pringles” for Prigozhin so get used to me calling him that. Pringles would not have launched his “revolt” if not for those silent backers, which included much more than some of the Russian generals. We are talking major players at the highest levels.
Kamil Galeev was the first to speculate that Vladimir may have been the lead silent backer, but I’m not sure even he believed it but was just raising a posibility. Is it possible? Yes. If true, it is the worst miscalculation by a major player since Kornilov. Vladimir’s internal and external reputation is damaged; the idea that the military senior leadership is corrupt and incompetent has found new and eager audiences (and is spreading rapidly) amongst the population; and, it has further eroded the concept of Russia as a major military power. None of which put Vladimir firmly in the driver’s seat.
The number of key players that were late showing back up to things is astounding, and telling. That some still haven’t really shown up is also telling (never count video footage of someone somewhere that can’t be verified). To say the Russian power structure is off balance is an understatement, and many have clearly lost a step or three in the dance.
All the more interesting is that Pringles and company, if they truly were guests of Luka, were almost immediately back in Moscow. If you want some fun, track Pringle’s favorite jet. Initial reports were that he and key associates were in Moscow concluding negotiations for the truce just a day after allegedly seeking asylum. Then there were talks of other talks. Today, even the BBC is reporting Luka as saying Pringles is in St. Petersburg.
Which tends to suggest that Vladimir was either one of the silent partners, or he’s so weak that he can’t do anything about it. I admit, given what all is going around in Russia, going after Pringles would tend to do Vladimir more harm than good immediately, as it would legitimize what Pringles has been pumping out non-stop about incompetence and corruption. Long term, that’s a different story.
Before I forget, there are rumors that the families of Wagner leaders and troops were used as hostages to stop the coup. If so, I’m surprised as the plan as seen was well developed, and clearly not developed on the fly at the last minute. Using families against “enemies of the state” goes back to times before Moscow was formed. Rape, torture, imprisonment, and death are typical for such. If any of the families were indeed left open, it says quite a few things about competence and cold-bloodedness.
The coup, if it was indeed such, is far from over. There are still a LOT of pieces missing. About the only thing I feel safe saying right now is that I will be surprised if Vladimir is still in power in a year. I will also note that the likely replacements (as currently standing) are not people we will enjoy. All of them, including jailed media darling(s) are even more ultranationalists and devoted to Russkiy Mir than Vladimir.
One can write a book on what is going on, but I’m not yet up to that. In fact, I have to run to the doctor’s as we may be changing wound treatment protocols given an area that has done funny post surgery. Between that and some issues the last few days that put me back on full pain protocol, and I’m glad to get this much up.
Oh, for those who don’t want to dig, Kornilov did indeed take care of some issues. The affair, however, ended up throwing open the gates to the Bolshevik Revolution.
More soon.
Agree it is far from over