Current Events – Page 23 – The Laughing Wolf

A Letter To Some Friends

Yesterday’s post reminded me I needed to finish writing a letter to some friends. Some friends with hard decisions to make, that will effect themselves and others. Decisions where it helps to bounce things off another person, so that you can check your impression of what is going on as well as search for options. We can’t have that meal together to do that, so a letter seems the best way.

Let me just say, you are not wrong, you are not alone, and on many levels it is worse than you think.

In some ways, the point where this should have come up is in the rearview mirror. But, you always hope that something good will happen, changes will be made, and promises honored. The problem is, our so-called “expert” leadership class is anything but such. They have shown they have no honor and only crave gaining yet more power and control; and, their word is not worth the spit behind it.

This isn’t confined to the military or law enforcement/public safety, but also public health, politics, and education. It is your doctor who looked you in the eyes and lied to you at the government’s behest during COVID. It’s the teacher and administrators secretly encouraging children to sterilize themselves in pursuit of the current secular religion. For those that serve, your children, with the approval of our military leadership. Leadership that heard the phrase “baby killer” and thought it a good thing and noble, and so encourage the murder of the unborn via another sacrament of the secular religion, abortion.

The best descriptor of what I’m hearing from those still in, but looking at getting out out of the military, can best be summed up as “Toxic Command Environment.” Physical and mental abuse, sexual harassment and assault, and lack of support are what I’m hearing is causing us to hemorrhage experienced and dedicated troops. All branches. And lack of support includes lack of food and more. It’s not just one base in Texas, it’s all over. The whole concept of Mission, Men, Me has been tossed out the airlock without a backwards glance.

You are not wrong to be thinking of taking your skills to Civvy Street. In fact, I would encourage it because your “leaders” do not respect you or your service, they have no consideration for you, and they will get you killed. Yes, I do know of a few bright spots, a few leaders who truly live up to the word and their obligations. Problem is, almost none of them are current GOFOs and because they are good and competent leaders are unlikely in the current environment to become a GOFO.

From law enforcement and public safety, I hear much the same. There are few in larger cities who feel the politicians and top brass have their backs. I can’t imagine having to go to work everyday knowing that if anything happens I’m going to be eagerly tossed under the bus by that so called leadership.

Some of you have already left the force in such cities, and taken jobs with smaller, better departments elsewhere. I’m glad you did, they are lucky to have you. That said, I think you’ve only put off the real decision for a few years. Hope I’m wrong, but I’m afraid I may not be. I know some of you who have left LE/PS, either for totally new careers or in something related. I’m glad you made that choice as well, as your employers are also lucky to have you.

I could turn this into a wordy take down of all that is wrong with America and the world, but it’s Saturday and you have other things to do. So, let’s cut to the chase.

Unlawful Orders

A serious and somewhat controversial topic, but one we ALL need to think about as it is the key to what is going on above. What makes it an even more complex topic is that even if there is a law that says X is okay and good, it can still be illegal to obey an order to do X. Let’s say there’s a law on the books that says it is okay to euthanize the physically and mentally defective, those of inferior genetics, etc. Still doesn’t necessarily make it legal, not to mention that it’s wrong on other levels as well. Exploring the intricacies of legal versus illegal homicide is not why we are having this conversation however, fascinating though the topic can be.

We are having it because of a symptom of how far the rot has spread in society. There have always been sociopaths and others who would torture, rape, and kill for the fun of it. Because they could do it and get away with it. They were, for the most part, a minority. However, the current secular religion has been chipping away at the social compact for a few decades now. Lots of columns have already been written about the othering of anyone who disagrees in any way with the current thing of the secular religion. Yes, I do think it deliberate and yes I think it is being deliberately done to foment violence. I’ve also noticed that there has been a push towards obey-the-order as well. You must wear the mask. You must get the vax. You must go green. The list goes on, but it is conditioning pure and simple. Obey. Or else.

Those watching have seen the creep. Watching seven “police” officers physically attack an autistic juvenile (and that is exactly what that so-called arrest was IMO) is but the latest example. They are going to claim that they were only following orders. It may be a slight variation, but that is going to be their defense in any and all actions against them. Bad thing is, they will probably get away with it rather than being given the boot as they richly deserve. Thing is, there was a law that X was bad and should be treated harshly and they willfully obeyed without thought. Out of the seven, not one had any qualms about attacking that girl.

Thing is, you and I know that the laws or executive orders about X are coming here. It’s not just speech, but a whole range of topics. And, yes, it would not surprise me in the least to see them come for your old gas stove and take it from you at gunpoint. They are that stupid and that fanatical.

They are stupid and see you, me, and a lot of others as automatons who will obey any order they give, even if the law behind said order is not Constitutional. It’s the law, you will obey.

No, we won’t. That’s why ultimately we and the concepts of individual liberty and rights granted by God will win. We have the right and responsibility to say no. It’s why they are trying and will try to make horrendous examples of those who did not/do not obey. When it’s just a few, they can do that and may even get away with it. But, courage is contagious. It starts with one person saying no, but as more stand up to do so, the more that will join them. They can’t do the horrendous it when those who say no are legion. Efforts to control large populations through control of food, water, and power are not going to work the way they think it will. We are legion.

Recognize that illegal orders are not just something barked by someone wearing stars on their collar. They can and do come as executive orders, mandates, regulations, and the other weapons of the bureaucrats. Embrace the power of no. There will be repercussions, and we might even see a Waco, Utah, or Ruby Ridge writ large — unless enough people have the courage and integrity to disobey illegal orders. To say no.

To those staying in, God Bless and Keep you and yours. May he guide and shield you now and in the days ahead. Just remember that it’s not you don’t have to obey, it’s you must not obey an illegal order. Keep in mind that as a member of the military, or federal, state, or local LE/PS, you are legally and morally required to not follow the order. There are times you are even required to resist having others follow the order. Even if it means you don’t walk out.

Think, make your decisions, and prepare. If you come out, glad to have you on the civvy side. If you stay in, may you be spared certain decisions.

Thing is, I suspect we will be rebuilding a lot of things here in the next few years, one way or another. We can rebuild good and needed institutions. A few years back, a retired Army general talked to a small group of us frankly and forthrightly. The subject was the Army, and how it was a broken institution effectively destroyed in the aftermath of Vietnam. He talked about what it took to rebuild the Army and take it from the hellhole it was to an all-volunteer force that was so well trained that when war came green troops operated as if they were veterans. A force that could take on and successfully do almost any task.

We can do it again, across a number of good and needed institutions. Why? Because we are legion, and we have the courage and drive to say NO when needed. We have experience, we have knowledge, and with luck we have some wisdom. We are legion.

Until then, keep those that matter close and your things where you can find them in the dark. Embrace the power of NO as needed.

Stopping The Spread

This is the face of unbridled and unprincipled authoritarianism. A face that would have fit right in with the Stasi, Gestapo, KGB, or a dozen others. A face in it only for power and pettiness. This is the face of tyranny. This is the everyday face of utter evil. The problem is, it’s not alone.

The banality of evil comes from it becoming common. Once the toe is in the door, more comes in and evil will spread and grow. Almost always that toe is disguised as some measure of safety and protection. Doesn’t matter if it is the oxymoron of hate speech, or a lockdown to slow the spread, it is an assault on your body autonomy and independence. Every time it is a means of chipping away at freedom, be it speech, movement, self-defense, or other basic rights granted not by government but by God. These efforts always attempt to grow.

It is not a new thing, for those who follow history know the pattern well and have seen it in multiple forms, in multiple times, and in multiple places. Those who study humanity, particularly in the forms of psychology and theology, know that we are flawed creatures and that there have always been, and will always be, people who because of their own flaws and insecurities are driven to obtain power over others. In the worst cases, you wind up with a national leader and piles of dead, as the millions of dead killed by such in just the last century will attest. For the rest, those insecurities reinforce the feelings of powerlessness over themselves such that they are driven to find any form of power over others for compensation. From those ranks come the nasty clerk at the motor vehicles bureau, the overly officious HOA board member, the Karen screaming at a store employee over the person not wearing a mask right/standing only 5 feet 11 inches from others. Like something else, they are legion because most don’t don’t want to deal with the hassle of confrontation.

There is, however, a third class of tyrant that as they become more common pose the greatest danger to individual liberty and stable governance. Their own self-loathing causes them to despise others, and worse yet to treat them as others and not as human beings or a life to be respected. For some, it reaches the point of sociopathy, for others something almost as bad. This group tends to find jobs and careers in organizations that give formal power over others such as teaching, law enforcement, and administration to name a few. The easiest way to spot them is that they are the ones who will take an innocent question or comment as a challenge to their authority. The ones that do so spectacularly and in a way that becomes public — say a teacher beating a developmentally challenged student who didn’t lift a finger at any point, or made one eat his own vomit; the cop who goes to town on someone without provocation, or elevates a comment to a high crime; a politician who has security, LE, or just members of their team harass or even assault a reporter or constituent over a comment or for daring to ask a question; a school board abusing power to prevent the parents of students from talking at an open meeting; or, well, you get the picture — are actually the better ones for society. They identify themselves and make it easy to have them fired, reassigned, sued, voted out, etc. If you follow the news, you know that those examples are in fact reality.

The British officer above hit viral status yesterday for having multiple officers swarm and physically assault an autistic juvenile and throw her into the dungeon, as it were, with no contact with her parents as a means of physical and psychological torture all because the autistic juvenile made a comment about the officer looking like her lesbian grandmother and wondering if she was a lesbian too. Now, the officer and the police department maintain that a huge and vicious crime was committed by the AUTISTIC JUVENILE and that the arrest including the use of force was justified. Judge for yourself. Since it appears that there was a complete absence of malice, and that no rational human being could see those words as an attack, I see it as assault, torture, and intimidation under colour of authority. Yeah, did that spelling because they are Brits. Sir Robert Peel must be spinning in his grave at several hundred thousand RPM over what the police and law have become in England.

However sickening and infuriating those who do things that become public are, they also are not the ones who scare me. The ones who have it a bit more together, who cover their tracks are the real danger. They are the ones who work with that first group of tyrants to take things national. They are the ones who design the “laws” (and help get them expanded), the gulags/camps/etc, sign the death warrants, and use the public types for intimidation, brutality, and all the dirty work while keeping their own hands clean. Mostly. There are always a few who will sneak into the dungeons or camps to have a bit of sick fun, then ensure there are no records or witnesses. Most, however, try to stay above such things.

What can be done about any of the three types of tyrant?

First, allow me to recommend mockery. Evil can’t stand to be mocked or laughed at. Look at how hard so many bureaucrats and politicians worked to silence memes and mockery in recent years. Tells you everything you need to know about them. Mockery also sends a message from society that such behavior is not acceptable. It humiliates those so hit, and lets others watching know not to do such things. Enough mockery from enough people, and you can indeed bring about change. Memes and memetics matter. Also, even in closed societies, you can mock with a degree of anonymity and at least some safety. Be smart, be careful, and be brutal with the mockery.

Second, shun. Do not stand with any of the three groups of tyrants. Ostracize them. Make them not of your circle of friends, invite them not to social events, cut them out of your life. You and your life will be much better for it. Again, it gets a message across to the person(s) in question and to those around you both about what does and does not constitute acceptable behavior, morals, and ethics.

Third, publicize. In closed societies, like England, you are going to have to be careful about what and how you do as one of the first things tyrants do is make it illegal to share news. When you can’t make it illegal, you can set up groups of bureaucrats (“experts”) to illegally censor content in social media. *Cough* My recommendation is to learn what you can about VPNs, proxies, and how to remove as many fingerprints as you can even in open societies for the safety of you and your loved ones. For non-electronic, keep in mind that printers and copiers still mark each sheet with a code to identify which printer/copier did the work. Typewriters have their own weaknesses too. That said, there are work arounds — find them. Meanwhile, spread the news any way and every way you can. Evil, like a cockroach, does not like a light shined on it. SHINE THE BRIGHTEST LIGHT YOU CAN!

Fourth, Courts and Elections. In closed societies, such is limited or eliminated. In those still pretending to be open, or that truly are open, make use of the courts and elections. On the latter, be sure the candidate is what and who they say they are and isn’t going to pull a Shreve. Start local, because until your area of operations is secure, trying for the top isn’t going to get too far. Even if you have a success with it, you are still having to fight the layers of bureaucracy, tyranny, and authoritarianism between you and the top. Much better to remove as much of that as you can, and it also makes it far more likely will get those national wins. Courts are iffy, especially with our descent into a two-tier system, but can result in some surprising wins. One can only pray that those wins will be enforced. Besides, it is a good way to implement Robert Heinlein’s instructions on the need to step on certain toes.

The final option is, of course, revolution. On many levels, it truly is a Final Option. The calls for revolution and violence in the U.S. I’m seeing online seem to come almost completely from the Feds and/or those idiots who are ignorant of how vanishingly rare a successful revolution — such as the American Revolution — are in this world. I’m willing to bet that the latter group has never studied, or seen in person, what happens in most revolutions and the devastation that even a “successful” revolution can produce. Also, they have not seen who is up against the wall second, if not first, in any revolution. Nor do they get that vigilante justice against any of the three groups is indeed the start of a revolution, and you better have your ducks in a row before encouraging such. A revolution via the ballot box is almost always preferable to a revolution via the ammo box. Are there times and valid reasons for violence and revolution? Yes, there are times when such are fully justified. Mayhaps we will explore them a bit here soon. For now, just keep in mind that violence and revolution should always be the last resort.

Where are we now? In the case of the officer above and her department, things seem to be well into the mockery and publicity phase. While some seemed to miss the point, several campaigns on social media were gleefully calling her a lesbian or asking if she was one. Another was linking her to #lesbiannana in various forms. For anyone who missed the point, it’s not about if she is or isn’t a lesbian. Frankly, nobody cares except apparently her, and Officer Cartman was enraged that someone didn’t respect her au-thor-a-tay. What it is about is asking the question that got the autistic juvenile assaulted, and in the process mocking the hell out of her and a group of Stasi wannabes pretending to be policemen. Personal opinion, none of those involved in this is fit to wear a badge or uniform ever again. Meantime, while mocking and hoping for some small measure of justice for the victim, it’s being seen and felt by police and such around the world. It is reinforcing that this is not acceptable behavior, and if seen will have negative consequences.

It’s a message the FBI hasn’t figured out yet. The execution in Utah was meant to intimidate. Instead it has opened the eyes of additional members of the public to the corruption in the DOJ and elsewhere, and enraged a good bit of the public rather than intimidating them. Mockery underway as the media got the journo-list message of how what little coverage was to be played. For something other than the corporate media spin, check this out from Brad Torgersen and scroll around as he has some other good thoughts to share.

The banality of evil is that it is common, and often in forms not confronted. This allows larger and worse evil to flourish. That needs to change. If you want to stop the spread of evil, and the growing scourge of authoritarianism and tyranny, rather than direct confrontation, publicize them and relentlessly mock, ridicule, shame, and shun.

UPDATE 1441 HRS 11AUG23: Seems the “police” department in question is feeling some heat. No charges for the flippin autistic juvenile they abused, but also no indications of any justice for her or her family (also assaulted) either. The department does come across, to me at least, as really hoping this fades out public view quickly. Usual political weasel words on reviewing and making changes if and as needed, which usually means a lot of talk and smoke in an effort to make this go away. Don’t let them succeed.

UPDATE 1632HRS11AUG23: If this is true, it would explain a lot about the overreaction. Also about the circle of wagons around a member of a protected class. All the more reason to name and shame. It also fits the authoritarian/tyranny profile to a T. You might be surprised at how many of that class have sexual issues on top of other issues.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Another “Accident” Andrei?

This morning brings news of another “industrial accident” in Russia. Via OSINTdefender, comes news of a major explosion at the Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant. From video shot on scene, it appears that artillery shells were either being stored there, or were being made/refurbished there. Read the thread for more details, but a couple of things pop out for me.

I’m catching hints that Soviet-era work habits seem to have made a comeback. Drinking on the job, poor quality, poor process control, and more may have returned along with the attitude “They pretend to pay us, so we pretend to work.” It still sort of floors me how many people still don’t know how bad things were in that regard in the USSR.

Clearly such people never had the dubious joy of a bite of Soviet chocolate, which one could be forgiven for suspecting was really compressed excrement. Or examined a Soviet made product of almost any type. Tolerance? What’s a tolerance? “Identical” parts varied wildly, and the instructions seemed to be that if part A fits into part B, go smaller than dimension to be sure it fits.

It wasn’t just a problem in general industry. It extended to the “elite” programs, like their space and missile program. Parts for “identical” spacecraft weren’t interchangeable because each was essentially a custom build shaped around various issues and QC problems. Don’t take my word for it, Jim Oberg and others were writing about this well before the fall. It’s why Soviet rockets had so many engines: they anticipated up to a third failing, so put enough on there to ensure getting to orbit if two thirds did work. You might also want to check out what happened to their Nova moon rocket. They denied it existed for years, but Charles P. Vick dug it out.

The attitude, and drunk/drugged workers, were responsible directly and indirectly for a lot of accidents. Some minor, many not. The number of “accidents” and fires could suggest a return of an old attitude and untrained workers. Word is that what real craftsmen and precision machinists they had have retired, and no one bothered to train up younger people to replace them. On The Job Training is NOT recommended at any point for the manufacture or refurbishment of artillery shells.

The accidents and fires could also suggest that the Russian government has a problem with sabotage. While some of the fires and accidents could be blamed on Ukraine, we are talking what may be a growing number of incidents across Russia. To me, blaming Ukraine for something that happens in the Russian Far East is a bit of a stretch. It is possible, but I’m not sure how probable it is. I know I’ve talked about this a bit before, but there is discontent and it does seem to be growing, and some may be acting out as it were.

Or, if they were working in any way, shape, or form with Soviet-era shells… Aged explosives and propellants tend to be “touchy” as it were, especially if they weren’t stored properly. Or built properly for that matter. Given that we are not seeing a lot of good storage (how many modern tanks will have to be replaced rather than repaired because of poor storage?), handling such is not a job I would take. Oh, if you are not familiar with Soviet/Russian ammo production and storage issues, look up the Northern Fleet explosion and go from there.

It could be any of the three, but don’t expect the truth to come out of Russian media or government. If they can find a way to pin it on someone non-governmental and safely dead…

Oh, you might also want to spend a few minutes on what this tells us about current usable war stocks, production rates, etc. For there are a number of implications when a plant that is supposed to be producing advanced optics and night-vision devices for the military has an apparently large number of artillery rounds on hand. If optical seeker heads were to be added, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to do that at the factory. Rather, one would suspect the components to be sent to depot centers or the original ammunition factory to be mated with the rounds. If you are developing some form of optical seeker, you don’t use, need, or want live rounds in your R&D or manufacturing areas. Live rounds are a pain and a major safety issue. Oh, and don’t forget what this says about the ability to produce those advanced optics and night vision gear desperately needed, if some portion (or all) of the manufacturing facility was turned over to manufacturing or refurbishing artillery shells. Lots to chew on in this one.

As for some caveats above, a lot of the “accidents” are not getting media coverage, especially inside Russia. People are usually very careful in talking about such on social media, as the Russian government is fairly quick these days to go after defeatists and ~~those telling the truth~~ maligning Russia. It’s only when something is so massive it can’t be hidden, like today, that the news gets out. Makes it hard to track events and honest opinions. That said, it’s much easier today than it was back in the day.

Meantime, lots to think about and it would just break my heart (/sarc) if the Russian ability to deliberately target civilians (or much of anything else to be honest) just took a major hit. If anyone has some solid data on production rates of the plant for optics and night-vision, or the percentage of such they provided the military, sing out. Given Russia has gone back to the “one big factory” concept in a big way…

UPDATE 10AUG23: Started hearing yesterday that there was a fireworks company using a warehouse on site, said company reportedly in bankruptcy. There is also speculation about possible “unofficial” ammo production. It will be interesting to see what comes out officially and unofficially. Also, the extent of damage to the main plant is getting debated, and ranges from severe to cosmetic. Again, it will be interesting to see what comes out.

How To Turn It Around

A few days ago on Twitter, I was asked my thoughts on a new study by Rand entitled: Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence. Here’s my initial thoughts on it and what needs to be done.

Sadly, I don’t think highly of Rand and it’s products, and have not done so for several decades now. Growing up in the 1960s, research and documents from Rand were treated almost as holy writ in the science community. Fact is, they did some good and even amazing work back in the day. Somewhere along the way, however, in my opinion they became just another beltway bandit.

Case in point are the first nine bullet points presented under recommendations which with one exception are meaningless ritual gobbledygook that says you are a serious beltway player who knows the current buzzwords and is prepared to synergize existing resources so as to maximize potential for the advancement of improvement. The only honest part of the nine are those calling for research into multiple new weapons systems that will require lots of expensive studies (like those done by Rand), extensive and expensive R&D, and decades to produce. Yeah, I may have helped write stuff like this before…

Okay, that said, let me back up and take this more in order.

Key Finding One is that warfare has changed since the Cold War. No shit, Sherlock. It’s changed since Desert Storm. I will add that we are insolvent because our current GOFOs are far more interested in focusing on Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity (DIE) than in teaching our troops to fight and win, which is indeed going to cause them to DIE.

Key Finding Two is that our superiority in training, tech, people, etc. is gone. I agree, and it was squandered by feckless leadership and politicians. A good bit of that was/is intentional I think.

Key Finding Three is that we don’t need superiority to defeat peers and near-peers. In the words of Col. Sherman Potter, horsehocky! Yeah, trying to be polite and keep it more PG-13 than the XXX response this topic usually elicits.

Key Finding Four is that it has opened the eyes of NATO members. Snort. Chortle. Braying Laugh. The newer members of NATO have been meeting and even exceeding for a while, even as they have tried to point out the danger while being poo-poohed by the older members in the status quo lounge. Those members, such as Germany, still don’t get the danger that exists, being as they are more focused on the danger to their pockets and all the freebies they offer their people. I might point out that this has also been pointed out for a couple of decades by members of the milblog community and pointedly by the previous administration.

Key Finding Five is that the U.S. and Taiwan have differing ideas on how they should defend themselves, with a hefty slice of implication that Taiwan is wrong.

Now, to go back to Recommendations, with the remaining points being a rendition of buzzword bingo. Encourage meeting commitments, increase stocks, points deducted for saying NATO has an eastern flank (it doesn’t, it has an eastern front…), and the rest is pretty much blather. The points I mention are good, but are couched with caveats that appear to negate them. It is the typical beltway dance, so as not to alarm anyone overseas that we might really mean it this time on commitments or the need for them to increase stocks. This appears to be a solid entry in the status quo club library with some appropriate (condescending) nods to the newer members of NATO.

Now, before I go into my take on some issues, go read the good Commander who makes some hard and valid points. As I’ve pointed out before, all stocks are low to the point of criminally low. Bean-counters made the call, the stocks were reduced, the lines are gone in some cases, and when it comes to D+7, we are going to be Winchester on a lot more than 155. I will leave it to Sal to talk about the horrible state of maintenance in the Navy, and will note that the Air Force has issues of its own.

I will also note that there is a huge problem with retention, not just recruitment. If you can get them, take a look at the number of people coming out early on medical and related. Add in those choosing not to re-up, and we are losing a huge amount of institutional experience at key levels. There is only so much abuse and command toxicity that people are going to take. They are voting with their feet.

Now, I can turn the following into a proper beltway insomnia cure easily enough for the right cash under the table. Meantime, allow me to present a hopefully more entertaining and colorful version with solid proposal underneath. You really want to turn things around?

First: Change of Leadership. No meaningful changes are possible under the current administration or current probable successors within the same party. The attack on warfighters and warfighting capability begun in the Obama administration is a key component of the intentions and operations of current political leadership.

Should circumstances change such that all parties are forced to accept the need for change and the resurrection of an effective and efficient military that wants to and can win engagements and wars, I would argue for a blanket purge of all current GOFOs save any who have spoken out in public against current trends, practices and theories including DIE (and are vouched for by middle-rank enlisted as having kept focus on mission and people). We really do need a clean sweep.

This should be followed by an elimination of TRADOC as it currently exists, and related organizations in other services. Since Vladimir is not likely to nuke Eustis as he wants to hurt us, if I were made ruler of the world even briefly, I would drop my own nuke in the form of enticing Col. Kratman back into service for the sole purpose of eliminating the current system, salting the Earth, and building a new system focused on mission, men, and winning. That truly is the key and it is not what we are currently doing in any service though the Marines seem to be doing better than most.

Finally, we need to stop the war on warfighters in the military. We desperately need to nurture any we find in any service, and even look to see if there is any way to entice proven wartime leadership to return to service.

Second: Procurement. We urgently need realistic warstocks. What a lot of people don’t get is that yes we are ramping up to app. 90,000 rounds of 155 a month. We need to get back to the days where we were producing more than 500,000 rounds a month. And, it’s not just 155. As Sal has pointed out, as I’ve pointed out before, there are a LOT of items where we don’t have the stockpiles and there is no way to rapidly procure more.

Restoring the industrial capacity needed is going to take time we really don’t have. Which means we need to really push to get things going now. If we wait until the ball drops…

We also need to gut and restructure procurement and R&D. Why? Take a look at any of the weapons development efforts by the Army in the last 10 years. Design by committee doesn’t work, and I honestly am not sure whether graft or incompetent micromanagement is the biggest danger to a weapons program. Think I’m joking? We’ve needed a new rifle for a while, where is it? Examine the efforts to develop such, and weep.

Drones, guns, whatever: open things up to a broader array of companies, run X-Prize operations, and find some way to stomp on the Not Invented Here (NIH) mentality that permeates military procurement. DoD is worse about COTS (unless it’s from the inner core of the usual suspects who know how to express gratitude) than NASA used to be about commercial products and operations, and that’s going some. Procurement badly needs to learn the lesson that perfect is the enemy of good enough, and that we don’t have decades to get things done. In fact, in some cases, I would say we have days instead of decades.

While I don’t mean to step on Sal’s or any of the naval bloggers toes, I will share something I saw somewhere on social media: naval leadership needs to look at real ships and readiness in 2025 instead of focusing on paper fleets for 2045. I would argue that the core principle applies to all services right now.

There is more, of course, but these are the two most critical parts of turning around the decline of our military.

On the subject of NATO, there is much that can be said and that needs to be discussed, from expansion to purpose. That said, we need to quit playing around in regards commitments. Given that I’ve discussed Germany (in particular) and others not meeting minimums before, I think we are at a point of fish or cut bait. There isn’t five to ten years for you to comfortably ramp up to the minimum you are obligated to do. You’re going to be lucky to get three. Figure it out, because the days of the U.S. being able to cover everything are done.

Taiwan is a subject for another day. I will simply say that to state or imply that the U.S. ideas on how the defense should be implemented are right and Taiwan’s is wrong is the height of hubris and incompetence. Given that our current leadership is incapable of organizing a drinking party in a distillery, we might should consider asking why they are doing certain things, study the details, and then make suggestions. I’ve already read a number of interesting reports and good suggestions from other milbloggers, so let’s not get too focused on the “experts” who haven’t been right on anything in years.

Saturday Morning Takes

Sorry, had planned to get one or more things posted yesterday, but weather and basement issues got in the way. The house where I rent a room in the basement was built either in the late 1930s or 1940s, with driveway design and other systems not exactly to modern standards. The sewer system and storm water drains in the neighborhood haven’t really been upgraded since then either I understand.

So, when we first moved in there were some signs of past flooding, and then we experienced some of our own. Yes, I lost some things and had some others damaged in one of them. No, I am not happy about it. Yes, I try to keep on the landlord as needed. To be fair, he’s dropped quite a bit of $$,$$$ on the issue including replacing the sewer line out to the property line and having work done inside as well.

One of the things he did was to install a sump pump in the trench drain across the bottom of the driveway. We have one of those fun drives that goes around the house, and there is a steep drop down to the garage. Guess where the water pours down to from around half the house? The sump pump sends the water up to the front of the house via inch+ line, and thence down the hill to the street.

Been a good system and we’ve had few issues with it in place. However, I’ve been suggesting that he needed to check and test that pump for a bit now. Heck, I want it on a BBS. Yesterday morning, we got storms and the trench drain filled up, overflowed, and was headed to the garage which is in the basement. Multiple checks by me confirmed the pump was not working. We got lucky, and did not flood

In between storms, the landlord checked on the sump pump which was warm or hot to the touch according to him, but not working. He got out an older pump that has to be manually activated, got it hooked to a hose, and it did get used. Had to go move the end of the hose as having the water come back down the drive was counterproductive, and was not amused at being out more than once in all this with lightning in the area (though thankfully at a good distance). New automatic pump is supposed to be delivered today. Needed, as we’ve already had one round of storms early this morning that had me checking things.

Needless to say, that sorta blew my planned posting for yesterday as well as getting to the gym. Instead, I played jack-in-the-box jumping up to check various things. Hoping to get to the gym here in just a bit.

The other day I talked about the uproar around getting Sgt. Gee to Arlington. In part, I noted:

Right now, all we can do is keep digging, wait, and see what comes to light. The true full story may not be what it appears, or it may be far worse than we think.

Jeff Schogol at Task and Purpose has written that the story was incorrect. That the government was never asked for money and did not deny any payment or assistance. I am relieved, but am also left with even more questions, and am not sure things still pass the smell test. As it is, I am glad she is in Arlington, and that her service and death are being honored.

Oh, and on the Russian front (all puns intended), if you’ve been reading that Pringles was dead, arrested, etc., you need to find better sources to read. He’s been in public taking part in diplomatic conferences and doing other things. Good reason to think my suspicions that Wagner is going to pivot to the Middle East and Africa as primary areas of activity seem to be on the mark. Take a look at the coup in Niger and who has just offered troops and other services to the new regime. Pringles and Vladimir may no longer be best buds, but the Kremlin is clearly planning on using Wagner for work overseas.

If needed, remind me that I need to go back to some previous writings and discuss what it will take to ensure peace in Europe (and elsewhere) as what there are some interesting signs in that regard. Still think it very dangerous, but…

Am hoping to get a local politics post up later, as the local situation has some national implications. It also points out why I want to get moved as soon as practical after my next surgery.

UPDATE: Made it to the gym, did well, feel good, added in something to the mix as well. Stopped by a historic diner nearby and grabbed a salad. Their buttermilk chicken is good fried or grilled. The salad will make at least one more meal, if not two. Wow. Local politics may have to wait, as I’m a sated and somewhat sleepy wolf right now.

More soon.

Quick Takes

Sorry to be so silent, but things are moving along. Mostly in good ways.

First, we entered a new phase of physical therapy, which is much more active. Good news is, already seeing yet more increase in range of motion. Also, figuring out where the issues are and having a lot more discomfort, and even some pain. The latter is usually brief, thankfully; but, the discomfort has been a bit more of a bear. It also probably doesn’t help that I’m trying to cut back (cut out pref.) acetaminophen as it doesn’t do as much as I would like and is frankly toxic. Take a look at liver deaths for people with chronic pain for but one example of why I want to be off it.

Add to that I’m hitting the gym three times a week. Main focus is aerobic/cardio, but also doing my home PT there as much as possible. I’ve bought a couple more things for home, so that when my paid PT runs out I can keep going. Going to look into trying to raise funds to do some more PT after insurance stops. We’ve changed things now to twice a week to make what I do have last, and paid might be as little as once every two weeks (or even once a month). Working on it.

Now, for the stories and events I’m following and find interesting.

First up, this one involving getting Sgt. Nicole Gee to Arlington sent me through the roof yesterday. As I noted on social media, if true I want heads on pikes. Problem is, the story is not adding up with the information given in the media. This is not to say it is a fake. This is just saying that at this time, with the information we have, it does not make sense. I’ve been talking with Beege Welborn at HotAir, who knows far too well what is involved with Arlington burials.

I’m hoping she can come up with more than I have, as right now there seems to be a lot of duck-and-cover going on in anticipation of a major shit storm rolling down. Lots of insinuation, but no real facts yet.

I know that at one point in time the Army had a liaison assigned to each family of the fallen to help. I will note that it is my understanding that Arlington assigns a liaison to the families to help with the process. That would include coordination on preparations and transportation if they are being reinterred. Depending on location of prior burial and other considerations, there may be an exhumation fee and there will be a fee to transport a body. In this case, such should be covered by DoD, especially in this case. Frankly, SecDef should have sent his personal plane given the responsibility he and senior leaders have in her death.

The $100k figure quoted in the article appears to be the cost of a fully-staffed air ambulance to transport a patient coast-to-coast. The $60k is still a mystery to me. Exhumation should not have been more than about $7k, more likely towards $1k in a civilian cemetery, and there should have been no charge if she was buried at a military cemetery. Major carrier like Delta or AA, if they didn’t do it for free, should have been about $3k (cargo rate). Maybe $5k if special containment required for some odd reason. If a local funeral home had to be involved with taking her body from Dulles to Arlington, there might have been a fee.

While we wait for more information, I will simply note that we are sadly long removed from the days of Taking Chance. Can I see multiple failures of command and leadership resulting in a series of FUBARs by multiple individuals military and civil service? Far too easily I’m afraid. In fact, from some of the reactions the story is getting I’m sort of leaning that way, but I also admit to cynicism and bias.

Right now, all we can do is keep digging, wait, and see what comes to light. The true full story may not be what it appears, or it may be far worse than we think. If the latter, people need to be immediately cashiered from uniformed and civil service.

The other story I’m watching is the alleged drone attack on the MoD in Moscow. I say alleged for a reason, as there is no evidence of any drones anywhere near there. The damage looks far more like someone opened up with the AD guns (as opposed to missiles) either shooting at ghosts or shooting in a panic. Right now, leaning towards a combination of vodka for the right parties and panic at an imaginary threat. That said, if I wanted to truly fuck with the readiness of an enemy’s AD readiness, sending someone in with the gear to create ghosts at random would be a good way to do it.

I will also note the stupidity and cupidity of our leadership in going along with the insane concept promoted by Russia that it is an illegal act of terror for a country it has invaded to attack its territory. Can anyone find me a citation of any historical precedent for such? This is Vladimir in his dirty and frayed undershirt screaming at the police that if the bitch had just not resisted she wouldn’t be dead on a larger scale.

Here’s a clue to Vladimir and others: if you invade a sovereign nation, bomb not just its capital but most cities and target civilians, they have the right to return the favor. That’s not escalation in any way shape or form, just a legal and proper response to your aggression. I understand that what you are saying is for an internal audience, but the rest of us can point at it and you and laugh and laugh and laugh.

More soon.

IRR????

Okay, the Biden Regency is moving to tap the IRR. If memory serves (stupid lightning) the last time we did this was the First Gulf War. W considered it during the GWOT but if I remember correctly (and a veteran on social media is right) it ended up being extremely limited to some very specialized MOS. The howls of outrage from the media and elsewhere over even thinking of tapping the IRR were long and loud. Word is, those forced back in during FGW were far from happy (massive understatement) and made that known.

For the GWOT, I would note that things were done to allow IRR who wanted to return to volunteer to do so. While there were (apparently) a few very select MOS pulled back involuntarily, a number did indeed volunteer to return.

For those not familiar, there are two elements to our national military reserve. When you sign on that dotted line, you are not just signing up for a single hitch, no matter what you may think. While you have options, you also incur some non-discretionary obligations.

Most people are familiar with the Selected Reserve (SELRES) where people join the National Guard or Reserve after an active-duty hitch or hitches, and maintain active status while participating in regular drills, training, etc. You maintain an active military ID and at need you can get that bright and joyous notice that you are recalled to active duty.

A lot of the public is unfamiliar with the IRR, or Individual Ready Reserve. Technically, that’s pretty much anyone who has ever served. Some in the IRR are completing terms of military service, and the fact that IRR members can be involuntarily recalled is often downplayed IMO. The idea is to have a cadre of (semi) trained troops that can be called upon “in time of national crisis.” In other words, something really bad has happened.

IRR does not maintain current military ID, does not drill or participate in regular training, draw uniforms, etc. They do have to do a yearly readiness screening. Cough.

So, drawing on the IRR is not something one does lightly. Those recalled have to be brought back in, the rust blown off, and unless they are recently detached that takes time. Those pulled back in involuntarily are likely to be a bit grumpy and uncooperative. Cough.

So, the decision by the Biden Regency to use the IRR is raising eyebrows in the military/veteran community. I’ve heard rumors that this particular action in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve is normal and happens every year. However, I’ve not been able to confirm that and people who should know if it is true or not have not said it is. Going to keep an ear open on that.

The use of Guard/Reserve troops in support is not surprising. There are units that are tasked to step into various roles, including critical roles, in the event of war and that they would take part is a given (and smart). It’s the use of IRR that is concerning.

Absent a national crisis that has depleted resources in Active and Guard/Reserve formations, or pulling a few people with extremely select MOS, why hit the IRR?

I fear it says much about our readiness, manning, and capabilities. If we are in a position where Active and Guard/Reserve formations can’t provide enough manpower (and the correct manpower), we are in deep trouble. Then again, we’ve known the military was in trouble for a while. That said, the use of the IRR would tend to indicate that things are a lot worse than we thought.

This is another one of those where I hope I’m wrong and the info I getting from those I trust is wrong. I really hope this is just limited to a very small number of people with a very specific MOS who have recently left service. Otherwise, what it says about our ability to fight a one-front war, much less the two-front we are supposed to be capable fighting, borders on terrifying.

NOTE: VodkaPundit has, as usual, a good take on this.

Tuesday Morning Slowdown

Things got kicked up a notch at PT yesterday, which has me moving a bit slow today. PT is far from what I consider a strenuous workout, but it seems to hit in many of the same ways.

For example, by the time I got back from PT and having to run down to pick up some refills, I was starving. So, I hit the taco truck for a couple of good asada tacos (proper, cilantro and onion), which I was going to photograph to share with a friend. As soon as the box was opened, they were inhaled. No photos. No crumbs. No nothing left but the container. Breakfast this morning was also inhaled, and I’ve been hungry since.

I am cooking at least breakfast again. The problem has been more doing dishes, which really can’t be done one handed IMO. Also, while I’ve done a bit of offhanded shooting/weapons work over the years, it never occurred to me that I might should learn to whip eggs and flip eggs and other things off-handed.

I actually slept better last night than I have in a while. Not great, but better. That said, up early and moving slow. More discomfort than pain, but I can tell they did step things up.

It is interesting where things are going in terms of politics in Russia. A piece that some seem to be missing is that Wagner owns some critical resources in the CAR, as well as controlling other resources (on behalf of Russia/Vladimir) elsewhere. For all that Pringles is loyal to Vladimir (and yes, I do think he is in his own very Russian way), keep in mind that others — including some who work hard to stay in the background — are involved with those resource efforts in Africa and elsewhere. To say that what is going on is Byzantine is an understatement, but Russian politics have always tended that way. To the dismay of many in Foggy Bottom who persist in thinking that they are just like us but talk funny. Let me reiterate that if you are basing your take on how we do things and what makes sense to us, you will continue to be disappointed, unpleasantly surprised at events, and wrong about the outcomes.

Another thing I’m noting is some of the discussions of artillery and how Ukraine is being outgunned. True, they are. Russia has stockpiles of artillery and ammo — most of which were subjected to the same looting and storage as their tanks and such. Duds are one thing, but the guns and ammo that get cranky when fired are reportedly making life interesting for the Russian red leg brigades. It is straying from politics and into operational, which I try not to do, but look at the accuracy difference between Russia and Ukraine. It’s significant. Yes, with numbers you can overcome precision. If all the numbers work.

Also, while our enemies probably know we are out of critical segments of ammo, Joe going and telling the world that’s true is not a good thing. Never confirm, and never give the enemy an advantage. Admitting it, and pretty much admitting we are going to be years if not decades (see previous writings and links in this category) rebuilding stockpiles (which were far too little to start with) falls under the category of “bad thing.”

And, yes, our stockpiles of every type of ammo are inadequate for actual combat. If you can tell me a single time the bean counters have been right about numbers needed for the last 100 years, it will be news to me. They always vastly underestimate what is needed, and I’m beginning to suspect that it may well be a historical truism.

As for Russia stepping up production of various weapons: how? They depend on ball bearings from the U.S. and Europe for their tanks and more. Chips from the West for almost everything. They have lost a great deal of manufacturing capability, and if they can’t obtain parts and more from the West, well… Again, if you aren’t following Kamil Galeev, you should be.

Can things get out of control in terms of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Yes. Do I expect to see global thermonuclear war any time soon? No. Nuclear exchange? Maybe. Nuclear terrorism? Actually, yes. I still say that if it hits the point Vladimir can’t win he may just decide that no one should have the territory and what’s needed to unleash a dirty war has already been practiced almost a year ago. Still, right now, I would expect to see some form of conventional expansion before any of the nightmare scenarios being breathlessly touted.

Besides, as I’ve noted before: Vladimir wants to hurt us, not help us. With the Biden Regency and related doing more damage to the Republic than he could hope to inflict with a thousand nukes, I don’t see him taking out DC or initiating a larger exchange (which is problematic per previous writings) anytime soon. It would take something truly massive to change that I think. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not so much even with the staggering competence of the Biden Regency. (/sarc)

Meantime, I need to get back to doing more writing on preparedness, especially given how things are going domestically. Definitely have some new points to consider and perhaps lessons to share given the start of the shoulder replacements.

Keep your friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Life is interesting, and I suspect it is about to get even more so.

Monday Thoughts

Some quick thoughts before I head to PT. Not sure I am supposed to be doing it, but using both hands for typing right now. Doesn’t bother me much, and less discomfort/pain than I had trying to sleep last night.

First up, interesting the number of articles suddenly coming out that put Resident Xiden and the Biden Regency in a bad light. That certain “safe” outlets are also asking questions about the cocaine found in the White House is telling. If the heat suddenly goes up on Cackles, expect to see some changes.

Second, having the Resident admit that we are low/out of certain critical ammunition and that’s why we are sending cluster munitions (bad idea) is almost as good as some of the factually incorrect statements he’s made about Sweden in the last day or so. My desk has a dent in it where my head has hit it so many times in this administration. The last few days have made it deeper. For those that read Honor Harrington, think Admiral Byng in regards the Biden Regency.

The facade of “nice old Joe” who also happened to be a great diplomat is one of the more interesting creations of the last election cycle. He’s always been a nasty, vindictive piece of work as most anyone in DC could have told you, and his diplomatic skills are far more reminiscent of throwing hypergolic components together. Domestic or foreign.

Third, the situation in Russia remains interesting. Pringles and company have indeed met with Vladimir and sworn loyalty to him. Loyalty to the MoD, not so much. Still not convinced Vladimir is one of the silent partners in the mutiny, but you can start to build a good case for it. Especially since it is allowing loyalty tests to be applied to not only generals (at least those who truly have military experience, as opposed to the instant generals of a few years ago), but down into the ranks a bit further. Say, those ranks that traditionally figure highly in coups and revolutions. The fact that the Guard will be getting armor and more is most interesting.

The problem for casting Vladimir as one of the silent partners is the damage his position has taken. He has come across as weak, indecisive, and worse. Far worse for him and those in his orbit is that Pringles message of the incompetence of the military leadership is out and spreading rapidly with key segments of the population. Even if Vladimir wanted to do so, to move against Pringles now would just reinforce the message with large segments of the population. Even if Pringles died gallantly fighting Ukraine, the message would be reinforced.

Interesting to note the number of people keeping low profiles right now. Or that Luka is continuing to be the MC of the show, revealing things carefully to the audience. Luka is playing his own game quite well, even as he stands (sorta) with Vladimir. Also notice how many have dropped all mention of the nukes to Luka, as well as the question of what nukes if any Pringles may have gained in his little march.

For those who continue to try to place Western values on Russian leadership and politics, much less ignore Russkiy Mir and its influence, what is going on will never make sense. It does, however, make sense to those in Russia though we are still missing pieces of the puzzle.

More to come, I’m sure. Not promising anything else after PT, as while it is far from what I would call a good workout, it leaves me a bit wiped. Overall, doing well. Much more discomfort than pain, and even the discomfort (at least during the day) is minimal. At night, well…

More soon.

Pringles, Putin, And More

I’ve been wanting to do an update on the Coup That Hasn’t Ended, but life has been interesting. I particularly wanted to do a link-filled bit of info, but that day is not this day, even if I am not quite typing one handed anymore. Call it 1.2 handed, as I am limited as to how much and how I can use the right hand and arm.

If you are believing anything in corporate media, drop as much as you can to my fundraiser as I have a bridge for you! As I noted earlier, if you think the fat lady has sung, I’m not sure she’s even in the building yet, much less warming up. Even by Russian mores, this is the most bizarre coup in history. It makes the Kornilov affair seem straightforward. And I do recommend looking that over to better understand what is going on now.

Short version as I have to go to the doc this morning: as noted before there were silent partners in the Wagner revolt. For reasons I’m not completely sure of myself, I find myself loving the nickname “Pringles” for Prigozhin so get used to me calling him that. Pringles would not have launched his “revolt” if not for those silent backers, which included much more than some of the Russian generals. We are talking major players at the highest levels.

Kamil Galeev was the first to speculate that Vladimir may have been the lead silent backer, but I’m not sure even he believed it but was just raising a posibility. Is it possible? Yes. If true, it is the worst miscalculation by a major player since Kornilov. Vladimir’s internal and external reputation is damaged; the idea that the military senior leadership is corrupt and incompetent has found new and eager audiences (and is spreading rapidly) amongst the population; and, it has further eroded the concept of Russia as a major military power. None of which put Vladimir firmly in the driver’s seat.

The number of key players that were late showing back up to things is astounding, and telling. That some still haven’t really shown up is also telling (never count video footage of someone somewhere that can’t be verified). To say the Russian power structure is off balance is an understatement, and many have clearly lost a step or three in the dance.

All the more interesting is that Pringles and company, if they truly were guests of Luka, were almost immediately back in Moscow. If you want some fun, track Pringle’s favorite jet. Initial reports were that he and key associates were in Moscow concluding negotiations for the truce just a day after allegedly seeking asylum. Then there were talks of other talks. Today, even the BBC is reporting Luka as saying Pringles is in St. Petersburg.

Which tends to suggest that Vladimir was either one of the silent partners, or he’s so weak that he can’t do anything about it. I admit, given what all is going around in Russia, going after Pringles would tend to do Vladimir more harm than good immediately, as it would legitimize what Pringles has been pumping out non-stop about incompetence and corruption. Long term, that’s a different story.

Before I forget, there are rumors that the families of Wagner leaders and troops were used as hostages to stop the coup. If so, I’m surprised as the plan as seen was well developed, and clearly not developed on the fly at the last minute. Using families against “enemies of the state” goes back to times before Moscow was formed. Rape, torture, imprisonment, and death are typical for such. If any of the families were indeed left open, it says quite a few things about competence and cold-bloodedness.

The coup, if it was indeed such, is far from over. There are still a LOT of pieces missing. About the only thing I feel safe saying right now is that I will be surprised if Vladimir is still in power in a year. I will also note that the likely replacements (as currently standing) are not people we will enjoy. All of them, including jailed media darling(s) are even more ultranationalists and devoted to Russkiy Mir than Vladimir.

One can write a book on what is going on, but I’m not yet up to that. In fact, I have to run to the doctor’s as we may be changing wound treatment protocols given an area that has done funny post surgery. Between that and some issues the last few days that put me back on full pain protocol, and I’m glad to get this much up.

Oh, for those who don’t want to dig, Kornilov did indeed take care of some issues. The affair, however, ended up throwing open the gates to the Bolshevik Revolution.

More soon.