I’ve been holding off on an update as there is a lot of smoke, which usually means a fire but in this case could just be politicians and proxies blowing it out their shorts. Russia operates very differently from the U.S., something that seems to escape about ninety percent of DC. It’s that difference that is making it hard to tell exactly what is happening.
The breathless coverage of the day is the assassination of Vladlen Tatarsky, born Maxim Yuryevich Fomin. The well-known Russian milblogger was a huge supporter of the war, but also had become a bit vocal in his criticism of how it was being waged, progressing, etc. To the point it was noted and being discussed in very careful whispers around Moscow. If you think Daria Trepova is the cold-blooded mastermind of the explosion, got a bridge for sale.
The assassination is very reminiscent of Darya Dugina (see here and here). Except this time they used a Russian patsy who provides access to a dissident group as well as the chance to tar Navalny and his party. Right now, suspecting they had hoped she would die in the blast, to make a lot of the smearing easier without anyone around to rebut.
Again, it plays to Russian tropes and drama. The man who could have caused the leadership a lot of problems is now conveniently a martyr. There’s a huge message in there too.
In Russia, the culture has two elements that shape more than many seem to realize. First, there is the idea that all people are corrupt and that therefore it is good to have Kompromat on everyone. The old KGB collected such on every member, both as a means of control at need and a means of knowing what enticed them. The concept of an honest person, one who actually obeys all laws and such, is a subject of laughter and concern. Laughter at the thought there is such a person. Terror that it could be true and of the damage someone like that could do to various systems.
There is also the mythos of the reluctant leader. Naked ambition is never a pretty thing, and in Russia such has needed to be cloaked in something a bit more palatable to the public. Stalin and pretty much every other leader have never stepped up because of ambition; rather, they had leadership thrust upon them and rose to the occasion. Noble. Even if ice axes were involved in the process.
Which brings us to Yevgeny Prigozhin. He’s been discussed a time or two here (see here for one) and so far seems to be holding his own in the current political warfare even though his Wagner group hasn’t done as well. He seems to have had a falling out with Vladimir, and Wagner is looking to refocus on Africa according to some reports. Worse, the quiet whispers extend far beyond Moscow as his ambition for higher leadership have become so obvious that it is being discussed. Discussion of such among an elite group is one thing. Discussion by the larger public is not.
Complicating this is, of course, Vladimir and his health. There are reports of body doubles, escape plans to China, and more. The idea of doubles has been around almost from the start, and I would not be surprised if such were not used. Not saying use is confirmed, just I wouldn’t be surprised if they were being used. To me, it is clear that his health woes are accelerating. Just look at all the video from Xi’s visit, much less his trip to occupied territory. The limp, the gait, and more are clearly visible. Vladimir has done all he could to hide issues before, for them to be seen openly is telling.
As a post-Vladimir world draws near, the scramble for the top seat is going to heat up. In fact, if this is true, some are already well into making plans and have violated a prime law of politics: everyone bad mouth’s the boss, but don’t get caught doing so. There are rumors of other fractures, and multiple people with ambition.
With the need to pull tanks from museums for the fight, Vladimir is increasingly left with only one option for shaking at the world: nuclear. This report indicates they are going to stop warning us of tests, which petulantly childish and foolish. Day ending in Y again.
Problem with that is, you can only push so far. RUMINT has been swirling for a while about issues in Russia’s nuclear weapons systems, including command and control. Note the push to the Yars system versus SARMAT/SATAN II, which was supposed to have replace all the SATAN I missiles several years ago. Add to it reports that an attempt to do a demo launch while Biden was in Ukraine failed. There is a lot of RUMINT out there, and I think we are on the mercy of either the twenty percent or even the ten percent.
People have noticed the rhetoric and at least a few appear to have looked at reality outside the bubbles that permeate Russian society and government. Such is not a help to Vladimir and his efforts to stay in control and start the building of the new Russkiy Mir. Politics and business are a blood sport in Russia, and I would expect to start seeing more blood in the days ahead.
Quick Aside: One reason for going for the older tanks is that they are easier to refurbish than the new. Most newer military vehicles, and not just Russian designs, require a lot of maintenance and if they’ve been in depot, even in the best of storage, they are difficult to bring back into operation. The longer they are stored, and the worse the conditions, I won’t use the word impossible but it does get very interesting. It’s something John Ringo gets into in his Black Tide Rising series.
On a more cynical note, I’m actually working on a contrarian argument in regards nuclear war. Picture Vladimir as Richard Dreyfuss’s character Alexander Dunning in the film RED, going “I’m the bad guy!” Yes, he is, and he want’s to hurt the West, not help us. Therefore, there is no way he is going to nuke DC, NYC, SF, LA, and other major cities. Right now, the politicians and bureaucrats there are doing more damage to the Republic that is the United States than Vladimir could with nukes. So, he is just going to continue to shake his head at the debauchery, and raise a toast to the damage being done.
On a more serious note, they are stepping up the nuclear rhetoric because it’s all they have right now. This was planned for three days. Funny how all the political plans for a short victorious war have rarely worked out throughout history.
There is unrest growing in Russia, which is why you are seeing stories like this, like this, like this, and like this. For all the propaganda and bluster, the word is getting out that all is NOT well. Which is making a lot of people nervous. Hence, the assassination of Vladlen Tatarsky who was a threat to share a lot of accurate information. Or to get people asking for that information.
I’m sure there will be more soon.
There is zero evidence of anything in this article. This is not a “Russia Update”. It is just a mind barf of thoughts that provide no actual information. You still have provided zero evidence of anything, especially any reason to support either side in this war between two corrupt countries.
Hey tovarishch, is there some reason you think corruption is relevant? Or do the people who make up your American-sounding names write your scripts for you too?
Many interesting points, as usual – but I have the distressing impression that our society (at the upper levels) is in reality more like Russia than we were told in civics class – though our ruling class hasn’t, yet, gone full decadent-empire.
“First, there is the idea that all people are corrupt and that therefore it is good to have Kompromat on everyone.” – I’m increasingly of the opinion that this has long been the case in D.C.; see LBJ’s remark regarding trust, peckers, and pockets. It sometimes seems that the biggest problem with Trump is that the powers behind the scene have, somehow, never found any exploitable dirt on him. Too rich to bribe, too shameless to blackmail, and apparently not actually guilty of any specific crimes would add up to a threat to a system grounded in blackmail and bribery. (No, I’m not a fan. I’m just amazed that in all this time the FBI hasn’t managed to come up with anything.)
First, thanks! I appreciate that.
Second, on certain levels, I think that’s true. Even before LBJ (good quote BTW!), you had J. Edgar and his files. There are still a few in DC who hope they never re-surface. 🙂 Good point on Trump and the swamp. It is interesting that they’ve found nothing real in all this time, for all they have tried. Agree with Sarah in that these are not the actions of those who are winning. That’s going to make things real interesting.
The top post is rather harsh but, no offense L’Wolf, worth your, and everyone else’s, including my, consideration. With the 24/7 propaganda, both sides, atop the smoke and fog of war I think we all need take everything with a ton of salt.
I do see the following as, probably, factual; the west wants to destroy Putin. Putin doesn’t want to be destroyed. Anything else, maybe so, maybe no.
The second comment, Eric’s; Looks to me like our rulers have ‘gone full decadent-empire’, just my opinion, not necessarily fact.
Your musings; well worth the read, just suggesting even though Rob’s post is rude (& full of the zero evidence he accuses you of.) we all need to try to see the dogs of war in spite of the fog.
Keep your powder dry.
Sorry Jim, going to disagree on the first part. A spastic spewing of words that lack the coherence of the bowel movement of an advanced dysentery patient is not worth my time, effort, or consideration. Or, as the ILOH might put it: Oh woe, some no-name internet rando said something mean. My day is destroyed, my world crushed, my soul dropped into a pit. Not. Anywhoooo (insert Top Gear gif here)
I write to try to share a bit about Russia, Russian history, Russian culture and mores because it is important to understanding what has gone on, is going on, and will go on. If the Biden regency had the first clue about any of that, I don’t think we’d be in this situation. It is important to know who the players are, and what they are doing, as frankly all of the current contenders to replace Vladimir are worse than he is in those regards. As I wrote, Vladimir is the bad guy. Navalny is the worse guy for all the left in the West has embraced him. Nevzorov never truly had a shot at it, but if he had the videos would have been epic.
If learning more about why the Russians are not just like us but speak funny, what is going on, and who are the players to watch (and why) is of interest, stop back by. If not, thanks for stopping by.
1. Re: your just above,
As I wrote, Vladimir is the bad guy. Navalny is the worse guy for all the left in the West has embraced him. Nevzorov never truly had a shot at it, but if he had the videos would have been epic.
Please elaborate. I know slightly who Navalny is and that he is an equivocal figure. I know the third man not at all.
2. Re: your earlier, original,
Note the push to the Yars system versus SARMAT/SATAN II, which was supposed to have replace all the SATAN I missiles several years ago. Add to it reports that an attempt to do a demo launch while Biden was in Ukraine failed. There is a lot of RUMINT out there, and I think we are on the mercy of either the twenty percent or even the ten percent.
Please elaborate. Yars vs Sarmat. So what?
Will do this next week. Thanks.