The Laughing Wolf

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

Rumors Of War

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QOTD

Quote of the Day, from a newsletter I get from/about Georgia (country): “Others warn not to look for too much logic and consistency in Russian military planning. ” Funny, yes, but also quite telling.

Rumors Of War

I mentioned yesterday that I’m going through a lot of information. The amount of propaganda out of all sides is staggering, and the quality of some of it is amazing. It makes trying to figure out what’s real and what isn’t a challenge. Between that and some of the shitposting some people love to do it also makes it hard to spot true trends in critical propaganda.

As I noted yesterday, the Kremlin has made a crucial change in its propaganda efforts. The new focus is that Russia is really at war with NATO and the U.S., and that the Ukraine is just a proxy for the West. Admittedly they are for some reason focusing on the U.K./Commonwealth as being behind the loss of the Moskva, but stories like this (particularly the article in The Times) are going to have an effect on that and aid the Kremlin in its propaganda efforts.

If there is proof of the U.S./U.K./Other providing targeting data, show it. What this comes across as for now is salacious speculation designed to drum up audience numbers and public sentiment. Not a great idea during a time when Vladimir is both looking to blame NATO for the war, the war taking so long (along with the re-appearance of Sergei Shoigu) and make a case for escalation including the possible use of special weapons (which at least someone in the Pentagon is taking seriously).

Remember, May 9 is fast approaching and things were supposed to wrapped up with bow and pretty paper by then. There is no way Vladimir can claim any of this as a victory, and he (and his survival) demand a victory. Instead, you have reports on the losses in the Wagner Group; yet more losses of top officers here, here, here, and here; and, you have conscription of 16-year-olds (and possibly younger) to make up losses. For all that the Russian military is supposed to be HUGE, keep in mind that every flippin unit may be at least 25 precent understrength and the units that are stationed in various locations around the country are usually there for a reason, such as restive populations, propping up friendly governments, and preventing incursions from people who don’t much care for the Russians. Add to that the absolute limits on being able to move those troops given the limitations on rail and air assets (much less the pre-positioned stocks are largely useless because of corruption, see previous posts on that), and you get the conscription and the urgent call-up of the reserves (who were not necessarily reserves as we think of such).

Which may explain his apparently sudden decision to simply encircle the Azovstal plant and seal it off, rather than launch the planned assault. The ceremony, and make no mistake it was a ceremony, where he gave the order is aimed primarily at the internal audience, not external. I fear he was honest in talking about the number of Russian troops that would die in that final assault. Those troops are desperately needed elsewhere, and encircling will free up the majority of them. It also creates a very good opportunity for the use of chemical weapons since most of the Ukrainian forces (and civilians) are underground. Hope I’m wrong, but…

Now, we get to some of the real war that is going on in the Russian military. I’ve been hearing a lot about troops refusing orders, refusing to advance, etc. A while back, I speculated on Vladimir using the Chechens to replace the KGB troops that used to ensure the Soviet Army advanced. Instapundit has a link to a story on this, and there are other reports bouncing around that it has happened elsewhere. Vladimir has been using the Chechens for particularly brutal actions military and otherwise, so using them this way is a logical progression. Trust me, the Russian military is watching this and making note of it. It’s entirely possible that the Chechens are about to discover that accidents happen, from artillery hitting the wrong coordinates to crucial information not getting to the right person/place at the right time.

The fact is, there are rumors/reports/whatever that Russian officers and troops refusing to obey orders is far more widespread that is being officially acknowledged. Nor is it apparently just the conscripts and/or contract troops. If true, this is huge. Add to it that there may be slowdowns in the already screwed up logistics chain, and you get a truly messed up situation. Oh, and there are fairly well confirmed reports that “volunteer” aka conscripted troops from various previous ‘liberated’ areas (Donbas, Georgia, etc.) have not just refused orders, but deserted and returned home.

There’s more, but it would be potentially premature and irresponsible to get into it right now. What I want to look at is the great marble stone under the statue that is Vladimir on the White Horse as the noble strongman of Russkiy Mir. The media and fanbois love to portray it as a solid monolith and rave about the delicate veins that make such pretty patterns. I look at it and I see stress fractures, fractures that are growing every day.

For now, go read this article in Bloomberg and then this analysis at the Daily Mail. Now, read this, this, and this. The last two stories are about people who know that they may pay with their lives for what they have said and done. We’ve established time and time again that Vladimir is not a nice man and loves to make examples of those he regards as enemies. Go read previous pieces on Vladimir for more details. Finally, read this and note the very precise phraseology that the deaths were carried out with his pistol. There is usually a reason for such precise phraseology and it sets off alarm bells in regular Kremlin/Russia watchers. While not making the Western news (and not much in Russia either) there are others who are dying, disappearing, or being arrested on the fringe (or even deeper) of Vladimir’s inner circle.

There is every reason to believe Vladimir is purging those he considers disloyal or risks. For ten Kremlin insiders to go to Bloomberg, knowing that surveillance is not just high, but increasing, says a lot. It also says that any surveys and such that say the elites/people/other groups are behind Vladimir and still believe in him should be taken with a grain of salt. As I noted in this post, almost nobody is going to be honest, especially about Vladimir.

One of the key questions is if Vladimir realizes how bad things are in military terms, in terms of long-term impacts (if you didn’t read this the other day from Trent Telenko, read it today as it is but one facet of the potentially horrific impact on the civilian economy) outside the military, and the large and growing larger stress fractures in his support? Despite the growing thickness of the bubble around him, I suspect he does have at least a hint. Thing is, if he has that hint and knows May 9 is coming, it’s not likely to make him more circumspect. Rather, it or the full knowledge of just how bad things are likely to push his hand.

For all the yapping by various functionaries about how Russia will never use nukes except in the face of a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation, there’s one thing to keep in mind. Vladimir himself has, in various speeches and comments, declared a number of non-physical things to be existential threats to him/Russia. This has included NATO giving the Ukraine supplies and training as but one such threat. Two, Soviet and then Russian doctrine has NEVER, to the best of my knowledge, applied that caveat to the use of chemical, biological, or tactical nuclear devices. Instead it has focused on maskirova and how to prevent retaliation for using them when Soviet/Russian troops hit a roadblock so to speak.

The Ukraine has been a massive roadblock, and the Azovstal plant has become iconic as a roadblock. Add in the push to declare the military action (and in particular the loss of the Moskva since it couldn’t, just couldn’t have been the Ukraine all on its own), and the miring down of Russian military operations, as the work of NATO, and voila you have an existential threat to Russia. And, no matter what, those evil nazi Ukrainians who are preventing the majority of Ukrainians from reuniting with the Rodina must be dealt with.

I honestly hope I am reading both Vladimir and the situation wrong. The problem is, for all that he apparently does feel that he is winning, he is in a desperate position. Even if the West could somehow give him an exit that he could possibly take, he won’t take it. Without a clear and major victory, his rule is finished and he will pay with his life. This might delicately be called a desperate situation, and as I’ve noted before several times, desperate people do desperate (and stupid) things.

If he has decided to ignore May 9, we are going to see a long and brutal war. If he succeeds in dragging NATO into direct conflict, I still see it as being brutal and lasting longer than people may think given the low numbers of troops for most countries. Most of NATO has depended on the U.S. and its troops for so long that what little defense they do have is about as firm as a bucket of spit. That said, if you haven’t already done so, take a look at which countries do have a defense, and a bit of offense. It’s clear that Vladmir is setting the stage in Russian public opinion for Russia to be already at war with NATO via proxy Ukraine. This gives him a number of options military and otherwise.

If he doesn’t ignore May 9, we are almost guaranteed to see orders for the use of special weapons in the next two weeks. I do not, repeat NOT, see orders for or the use of strategic nuclear weapons except as a threat at this time. Anything done will be tactical in nature, and I see the Azovstal plant as a likely first target of chemical weapons.

Based on the steps he is taking, including making this a war with NATO, I am moving my odds on orders being given for the use of special weapons from 60/40 to 90 percent until May 9. That said, I have one final question to ask:

Will such an order be obeyed?

The Chechens? Hell yes, they would do it in a heartbeat. There is reason to believe they already have used chemical weapons. I really don’t see the Russian military turning over working nuclear weapons to the Chechens, however. Not willingly.

Russian troops? I’m not so sure. That’s one hell of a thing to have to hope for.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

War Of The Memes

A Little Free Ice Cream

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A Little Free Ice Cream

It may not be as much as normal, but here’s a little free ice cream for what has been a somewhat sucky day so far. At least when I finally did get to eat food, it was decent.

Two threads from John Ringo. The first is pointing out the obvious that has been being missed in regards the Moscva. As noted, there’s always a lunkhead in an X-wing and a thermal exhaust port. Of no surprise, Russian propaganda is now pushing the narrative that NATO sank the Moskva using the Ukraine as a proxy. Interesting that in some of the coverage, they are pushing that it was the UK/Commonwealth rather than the US. Keep in mind, this isn’t an accident but Kremlin/Vladimir approved. There is prep underway.

Still trying to sort through a lot of information. Part of the problem is, if I had heard half of it before it became clear how bad the situation was with the Russian military, I would have easily dismissed it. Now, however, that’s not possible and if some of what is coming out is true, the situation is even worse for the Russians than we think.

The second thread from John involves how his father earned a Bronze Star in WWII during the Battle of the Bulge. And was almost courtmartialed for earning said Bronze Star. No good deed goes unpunished.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

War Of The Memes

*****

War Of The Memes

No, I’m not talking all of the brilliant/good/okay/incrediblyfuckingstupid memes about Russia and the Ukraine seen on social media. While they do play a role to some extent, what they are is an expression of some of the deeper societal beliefs, language, philosophy, and how those all tie together.

Kamil Galeev is back with a rather lengthy bit of homework for you. He gets deep into the weeds on memes and memetics, and the evolution of same in different countries, with a focus on Russia and the Ukraine. It is an excellent read from an academic perspective, and from that of anyone who truly wants to understand what is going on and — more importantly — why it is going on. If you are trying to understand the Gramscian damage done to the U.S. and the West, this is some good “foundation” material to read.

To simplify, the Putin and a good bit of the elite see this as a war of liberation. It is their belief that the majority of Ukrainians long to be good Russians and adhere to the Russian (Slav) traditions. They not only believe this of the Ukraine, but a wide swath of former (and not former) territories. That is part of the heart of the plan that is Russkiy Mir.

They have been astounded at the resistance, because they believed that most of the population would rise up on their behalf. Given the information bubble at the top, it’s not surprising that in some cases there may still be some belief that it is just a fraction that is driving the rest to resist. Rather, they see that group plus NATO as trying to thwart the crusade of liberation. I have no doubt that Vladimir really does think he’s winning.

While it can be seen as delusional, or just a product of the information bubble, it is more than that. It ties into mores and memes, and the belief that obstacles to “restoring” the majority of the Ukrainian population to their rightful status as Russians will be overcome.

As we head towards May 9, keep in mind that the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and even the new Russian Federation have done many things on the basis of historical occasions rather than what the real world dictates. Never mind that they could just settle in and take however long it takes to re-assimilate the Ukraine. They won’t. This is tied into symbolism, mysticism, religion, and more. The danger to the Ukraine and the world is only going to increase as the clock ticks down.

For, if it becomes clear that the majority of the Ukraine has no desire to become Russian, well, that just shows that they are evil, sub-human, and not deserving of life. In fact, because they are evil and Nazi, they deserve death. Read what the Russian “elite” are saying on this topic right now, because that’s exactly what they are saying. It’s what they have been saying for decades, if not centuries.

This is not a people or leadership who believe a mistake has been made, and desire a way to negotiate an end to things. They see this as a holy war of liberation, and if those being liberated don’t want to be liberated, then they are clearly on the side of evil and need to be eradicated to free the rest. Those that help them resist are evil too.

The Russians know a thing or two about proxy wars. They see this as a proxy war with NATO, and seem to be moving towards seeing it as an open war with NATO. This is why I don’t (yet) support Trent Telenko’s idea of using PMCs for training, as that pushes the “rules” of proxy wars. Then again, anything that stands in their way is an act of war and causes Vladimir to rattle the briefcase ominously while making threats. It is also why a no-fly-zone and other open actions will take this instantly from proxy war to full war.

Can the Russians take large amounts of territory in the Donbas and the South? Yes, though there are limits. Can they hold it? No. No more than they can hold the Ukraine should they somehow take it. Their ability to take territory is open to question for any number of reasons, and Trent Telenko points out something that is going to have huge implications on the Russian home front sooner rather than later. Which makes me even more concerned about May 9.

As a complete aside, the homework that started this features Pushkin rather heavily and with good cause. That said, I find amusing his status today given that the Czar had him killed via the duel. Fairly typical Russian melodrama (Oh, those Russians!). When I visited Pushkin’s home where he died after the somewhat botched duel, it was quite the shrine for Russophiles, Slavophiles and other Pushkinophiles. The way they preserved things large and small had me wondering (after seeing the wastebasket of Pushkin) if they were going to trot out the chamber pot of Pushkin with the contents bronzed in much the same way parents bronzed baby shoes for a while. Pretty much everything else had been preserved, after all…

To go back to topic, today’s homework shows why the invasion was not a mistake (from Vladimir’s point of view) and why absent a clear and unambiguous victory from one side or another, there will be no negotiated peace anytime soon. It also serves as a warning for May 9, and why we need to keep a sharp eye on things.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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Monday Morning Quick Brief

The Cognitive folks have gotten my insurance to sign off on some therapy to try to help deal with the areas that got a bit scrambled by the lightning strike, so am off to that as soon as I get the snow cleared off my car. Please, donate to the fundraiser as I do the equivalent of a Bugs Bunny “Get me out of here!!!” I may also be going to follow-up on some other medical items. Will see.

Vladimir is continuing to rattle his nukes to engender a ‘Let Vladimir Win’ mindset elsewhere. Keep in mind he threatens nukes for many things, including appearing to breathe heavily near or at him. It may be working in DC (sadly), but I’m finding it surprising how little reaction (other than derision) it’s getting in Europe and Scandinavia. Again, a sign of how far the perceptions of Russia and Vladimir have fallen.

This article looks at several of Vladimir’s ‘Hail Mary’ options, including some naval I want to take a closer look at soon. Not onboard, though I will remind you that I pointed out a while back that you haven’t yet seen true brutality until Dvornikov gets going. It’s his stock in trade, and I suspect the increased use of missiles in the last few days is part of his handiwork. He may not be very good at killing dispersed troops, but he’s hell on wheels with women and children.

Trent Telenko raises a good point about artillery and ammunition in this thread. I agree whole-heartedly that we need to sit back, take a fresh look, and start over on pretty much every assessment about the Russian military that’s more than a couple of days old. Noticing that we are still relying on information and operational assumptions from the Carter and Reagan years. That’s not good.

Which is why I fully agree with Trent Telenko about the massive failure of almost every major intelligence agency (and quite a few of the minor) over the last few years. Afghanistan was a complete miss despite the large number of assets, penetration, and technical means. Ukraine is the same, with the 2012 and 2014 mindsets missing every bit of the changes from 2016 onwards. Russia? Got to agree with Trent: the novel would have hit the trash here too, simply because while it was clear that the kleptocracy was having an impact, I had no idea how bad it truly was.

I admit it, and I’m old enough to remember that both sides may have used padlocks and chains as PIDs on some tactical, or that some of the Soviet tactical weapons were stored on straw to protect them. The nomenclature has changed, but some other things haven’t. If even half of what is starting to come out is true… Not just nuclear, but almost every aspect of the military and even into aspects of civil.

I’m still not sold on Trent’s idea about PMCs. I agree it should work, but I am also not sure it is a good idea, yet.

More soon I’m sure. Meantime, I’ve got to clear snow off the car (!!) and head out. Be safe.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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Honest Question

Given all we have learned about Russian Army, Navy, and Air Force maintenance, what makes anyone think their nuclear maintenance is going to be any better?

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine