The Laughing Wolf

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

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If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Missing Pieces And Surprise Pieces

Yesterday, I talked about that which lies behind the curtain, and today we return in part to the puzzles and pieces that are the events happening. Many things still just don’t add up; but, more things are coming into focus.

Again, as I noted the other day, don’t believe everything coming out from ANY source including the conspiracy people. And, I do include anything on this site or that I say should be treated that way. Take it with a bit of salt until you can research and verify. As Boss said, trust; but, verify.

That rule also applies to someone who has impressed me. Go read the latest from Kamil Galeev. When you get to the bottom of the story, take the time to go read the other things he’s written that you have not yet read. He has a number of good insights and thoughts. Again, read what others say and make an informed judgement.

The four LSTs that passed Japan are interesting for a number of reasons. If they are indeed headed for the fighting, it could be a long voyage. If headed to the Black Sea, will they be allowed transit of the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus? If they are not headed to the Black Sea, are they intended to head to the Baltic for land transport? Either way, it indicates that at least someone thinks this is going to go on a while. Pity I’m not seeing any submarines currently active in the Ukrainian navy, as the Russians appear to really need the equipment on those ships. Be a shame if something happened to them.

As noted before, there is a lot that doesn’t make sense with what is known. The attacks in the East and the South are not only to take a land bridge to the Crimea, but to also rob the Ukraine of its ports and most productive territory. If they lose the South and the ports, they lose the ability to conduct trade. In short, that effort is designed to force any divided Ukraine to have to join the Russian-controlled part simply to survive. Yet, the South is stalled almost as bad as the North/East attack against Kyiv though conditions are much more favorable in terms of being able to operate off-road.

Which in turn leads to logistics and training. One of the few things most sources agree on is that the logistics situation is FUBAR and getting worse. If the four LSTs are indeed aimed at getting critical logistics to the war, it is the equivalent of a Hail Mary play where someone is hoping things hold on long enough for it to arrive. Meantime, multiple sources that are not the Ukraine are reporting that food, fuel, ammunition, and more are in short supply for the Russian troops.

Troops themselves seem to be in short supply, and this article at Instapundit not only has some interesting info on sabotage of the supply lines, but an astounding admission on the true number of killed and wounded. The Kremlin has maintained that the numbers were low, ridiculously so. Yet, a pro-Kremlin outlet has released information that almost 10,000 have been killed and some 16,000 wounded. Note that they are very careful not to mention the number captured — or that have flat out defected, often with weapons systems. More on the outlet in a moment.

Now, let’s look at training. One of the reasons the U.S. military was so successful in many operations was the amount and realism of training. It allowed green units to function as if they were veteran units in the early days of Iraq. Our version of shock and awe requires not only well-trained troops, but equally well trained and practiced logistics.

There are multiple reports out that the Russian troops literally can’t operate cross country, which says a lot about land nav training. That other areas of (very) basic training are on par with the land nav. While the Russians do have a number of elite troops, keep in mind that a good bit of the forces are conscripts, who often just want to get it over with and out — and have no real motivation to train and do well. So, even if the weather (and mud) were better, they still could not make full use of their forces.

I will also join right now in agreeing with others who have pointed out that the large number of senior officer deaths reflects these issues. When your troops are not well trained, may not be fully under control, and don’t necessarily want to be there, you have to lead from the front or very damned close so as to make things happen. Which means you have a better than average chance of making a com mistake or otherwise identifying yourself and your command unit as a target. With the exception of one sniper shot, that’s what’s happened to most. That one such officer was the officer responsible for the massacre of Ukrainian troops who had been promised safe passage out of an area a few years ago is poetic justice. When Putin talks safe corridors, he’s lying and that incident is the proof of such.

Now, let’s go back to the unexpected report by Pravda. Rather, let’s look at what lies behind it. There are a number of indications that not only agencies of the government are not working well together, but that divisions within those agencies are not working well together. There is some speculation that some of this is deliberate and some is just war magnifying the normal bureaucratic incompetence. There are some very interesting rumors that a LOT of it is deliberate, as people who oppose the war are taking any chance to spike it (especially if they can’t be caught at it). Yesterday, I mentioned the demographics involved in Russkiy Mir pro and con, and I have a suspicion that some of the, er, friction between different parts of the Kremlin may mirror those demographics.

One also wonders how much any of this is being accurately reported to Vladimir. It’s pretty clear that the briefings he got before the invasion had very little connection to reality. When you are a strongman with a temper and known for arranging very nasty ends for those who displease you, you tend not to get told anything you don’t want to hear. When you do hear of people disagreeing with you, no matter how reasonable the disagreement, and your reaction is to declare them traitors to the Rodina and act upon it, it might further deplete the supply of truth reaching you. As I noted yesterday, Putin is a “true believer” in Russkiy Mir both because he believes in the end goal and he sees it as the way to secure and expand his (now extremely shakey) position. I think it has led to some serious miscalculations, and that more are to come.

At this point, however, I suspect that Vladimir realizes the damage done. It is not just economic (he cares not at all about the hardship on the average Russian citizen), but the political costs are huge. The threat of the Russian military is not completely destroyed, but has taken damage such that the areas he wants to force into Russkiy Mir are not only no longer terrified, but believe they can fight and win. Russia was always heavily dependent on imports, and that has now significantly increased and Xi is smiling the smile of a loan shark at the fact that most of that trade now has to go through him. Putin has begun turning off energy to the West, and the West is already figuring ways to do without him. Heck, Germany may even restart its nuclear power plants if rumors from Berlin are correct. I hope they are, as otherwise Germany and a good bit of Europe are fucked if they don’t, short and long term.

Vladimir’s position was shaky before this. Now, he’s a cornered rat in many respects. He can’t trust his fellow oligarchs, for all he’s neutered them as best he can. He can’t trust his military. He can’t trust even his fellow-traveling politicians as some of them already are reported to be looking to arrange soft landings elsewhere. I would not be surprised to see his already interesting security arrangements get even more interesting — one wonders if all of his in person meetings might now be done at a hundred feet… He’s also aware that the public as a whole is not to be trusted. For all that he does have a very loyal base, it is not a majority (or even close). He has no “out” within Russia for all practical purposes; and, he will not consider any out that would place him outside of Russia. Never mind the fact that he’s been declared a war criminal and that leaders of other governments have called for him to be deposed and/or killed. No, more than ever I think he will double down and hope that doing so will let him accomplish enough of Russkiy Mir to not just hang on, but to gain power.

Again, this does not make me optimistic about reasonable decisions, much less any that fall within definition of good choices. On the military front, doctrine calls for the use of nukes in situation like this. There may be an option for Russia to use its chemical or biological weapons in place of nukes in terms of doctrine, in the belief that the U.S. would not respond to their use the same as the use of nukes. Then again, doctrine (and thought within those red walls) believe that Western leadership, particularly the U.S., will not do so anyway.

All we can do at this point is hang on and hope for the best. As I said before, we may be about to witness what happens when it’s not one world leader who’s insecure in MAD terms, rather what happens when no major world leader is secure. Won’t that be fun!

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

The Thing Behind The Curtain

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The Location Is Set

I’ve got a new update up at the fundraiser on GiveSendGo. Short version: past time to get out of here and out there. Location selected. Just need to be able to pay the movers and get all the deposits and such in place. The rest will sort itself out as things move along. If you don’t want to donate via the fundraiser, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right (PayPal). Thank you all very much for your help and prayers. Both are very much appreciated.

The Thing Behind The Curtain

I had hoped to get this out last Friday, but weather changes have had me rather locked up. That said, it is still timely and if you want to understand not just the invasion of the Ukraine, but all his other actions, you should read and listen on.

First, listen to this speech by Putin. There are captions that are reasonably accurate if you don’t speak Russian. Some describe it as bizarre, and in sections it may seem such. The problem is, it really isn’t from the point of view of someone who subscribes to the concept of “Russia World” (Russkiy Mir) as he has for a couple of decades now.

If you are not familiar with this term, this is a fairly concise overview. Note the reference to “New Russia” which is the goal of a new Russian empire. And, yes, there are references to “Holy Russia” in there too, which is why Kirill is onboard with the idea. And, if you dig into it a bit more, you will find the philosophical fingerprints of both Aleksandr Dugin and Ivan Ilyin on the concept too. I really do need to get deeper into this concept, but suffice it to say it has the capability of bringing the Church, the Russian Mafia, and the Oligarchs together because they can all make bank on it.

It is also worth noting that it appeals primarily to older Russians, and to a younger set that sees it as a way to move up in life and who are of a particular political view. For many younger people, the concepts involved have neither the emotional appeal nor the practical appeal — and in fact are repellent to those who are embracing more Western ideals on freedom. When you look at who supports Putin right now, and those opposed, you can get a good idea of the generational break.

I seem to have lost one bookmark, which is to an interview on German television of Putin about why he invaded. Putin launches into a rant about Clinton’s campaign bus dumping sewage on the street and how that was sickening and, in essence, a sign of how morally sick the West has become. The television host is quite taken aback, and Putin adds a bit more to the rant. When pressed to say anything else, he simply says no. It is bizarre, to say the least, but it is also a reflection of the concepts of Russkiy Mir.

Vladimir is a strongman in an increasingly vulnerable state. He is heavily invested in Russkiy Mir, and as such has couched a lot of his speeches on the concepts within: Holy Russia and the morally decadent West; the fight against Nazis; the need to reclaim that which is Russian to begin building the New Russia; and, the need to deal with the immoral elements at home.

Thus you get the speech seen at the top. While some of it is clearly aimed at the Oligarchs who have turned to the West and mostly live there, it is also aimed at all Russian citizens. If you don’t embrace the ideals of Russkiy Mir, you are a traitor. If you oppose Putin and his efforts to bring about the New Russia, you are a traitor. Vladimir deals with those he considers traitors in nasty ways: nerve agents, radioactive agents, nasty poisons, and other means of gruesome deaths.

He sees being bold and starting the process of reclaiming the “lost” land as a means to bolster his position. He gambled heavily on it, and it has not gone well for him. Going after Oligarchs who pretty much have left Russia and tend to not favor Vladimir, he both sends a signal and when he does move the state (and his buddies) get to take control of their Russian assets. It sets the stage for even further repression of the general populace.

Listen/look at his words in light of Russkiy Mir, and you have his official motivations for all his actions. His private are like almost anyone else: securing and/or expanding his power and making his situation more secure.

Keep in mind, he is desperate. He was desperate before the invasion, and now that it has not gone to plan, he is even more desperate. Desperate people make bad decisions, it’s almost guaranteed. This is why the use of chemical or nuclear weapons IS an option as far as he is concerned. It has been and still is military doctrine in Russia. If he will use nerve agents and more on those he deems traitors, don’t think he won’t hesitate to do far worse if needed to save his hide.

Meantime, keep an eye on the domestic situation here. The fact that the Shady Lady, aka the New York Times, has admitted that Hunter’s laptop is real and verified is a political nuke. The implications are staggering, and I would be unsurprised if there were not regime change here in the works.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

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Thank You For Your Continued Help And Support

Starting the fundraiser was not an easy choice to make. It is difficult to admit that help is needed, and continues to be needed. It is hard to ask others to do things for me, even though I literally can’t do some physical things that I did before the lightning strike and all that has happened. It is difficult to have the wisdom not to try to do some of the things I would like to do. So, I want to say thank you very much for the help with the fundraiser and all the prayers that have been offered up for me. I hope both continue.

As I noted the other day, the cost of hiring movers to move me — another of those things I literally can’t do myself this time — has doubled. There is a need to make deposits and take care of the utilities and other items where I’m headed. The actual move is going to eat up pretty much all of what is left on the fundraiser.

Meantime, we continue to work on the blood pressure issues. I’m not thrilled with the pace. I very much wish the cardiologist was a bit more aggressive, but at least we are moving forward on getting me down out of stroke range.

Yesterday, I got in to see my ENT doc and ended up getting a full audiology test. The results confirm I have lost the higher frequencies in my right ear, and that it is nerve damage. Now, if it was from the lightning strike, things previous, or a combination of things: your guess is probably about as good as anyone else’s. I suspect it is a combination and I do wish there was some way to turn down the ringing in my ears, particularly the right. While the right ear could benefit from a hearing aid, we are going to wait a year to do another test to have a good baseline for making that decision. Oh, and the sensation of one or both ears feeling as if they are full of wax, water, other? It is related to the hearing loss in both ears and I will get used to it at some point. Rah.

Still recovering from the diverticulitis flare, slowly getting back to a normal/new normal. There’s no way it could be related to the lightning strike, but the list of conditions that have popped up since being hit is far larger than I would like.

All of which makes for interesting times. I do well in the mornings once I get going. It takes longer than it did to get going. I can sustain moderate to normal activity for a fair bit, but by early afternoon I’m starting to fade a bit. The cardiologist was kind enough not to note that we don’t bounce back the same as we get older when I acknowledged that I’m doing well under the circumstances though not bouncing back as fast or far as I would like. As I noted before, it’s a bit rough to learn that some of the stun gun effects to the brain will take about three years to heal/shake out. It’s also rough to know that six months on from the surgery I still can’t do a fraction of what I used to do physically. I just have to keep pushing on all of it, and at some point I should get back close to where I was before the strike.

With your continued help and prayers, I will do that. Thank you again for your support, encouragement, and prayers. As always, if you don’t want to do GiveSendGo, you can hit the tip jar in the upper right as well.

Quick Thoughts On Ukraine/Putin

First, believe nothing you see, read, or hear, at least until it can be confirmed. The amount of propaganda coming out of all sides is staggering, and the quality of much of it is amazing. Impressive even. That said, if the story says anything about informed/anonymous sources, treat it as false until proven true. That goes for any subject, as history has shown most (if not all) such stories to be works of fiction. Sadly, more than a grain of salt is needed these days.

Second, I’m really wondering if politicians (particularly in the U.S.) are required to be as dumb as a box of rocks. Comments being made about Russia, Putin, etc. on both sides of the aisle show an incredible lack of knowledge about the man, the country, and the current situation. Some also show a lack of consideration of the old adage that loose lips sink ships. Others, like Mittens Romney, need to just shut up and go awaty.

Third, if you do want some very good insights to what is going on in Russia, and how things work/don’t work there, scroll down to the bottom of this story on Threadreader for a listing of all the writings by Kamil Galeev.

Fourth, if you need a reminder of just how vicious and unscrupulous Vladimir and his cronies are, go to this post at Instapundit and read all the linked stories. Keep in mind that a number of those killed were poisoned in very nasty ways both so they suffered tremendously and were very public advertisements of why you did NOT want to mess with Vladimir. That he regarded/regards them as personal traitors as well as traitors to the new “Russia World”/imperial Russia that he wants to create speaks volumes. To those who keep saying he wants to bring back the Soviet Union: No, he does not. He wants the territory of the old Soviet Union (plus a bit more), but with a new, better, Russian government. Remember, he regards the Communism of the old, and the old Communist Party to have been a poison to the Motherland that kept her from earning her true glory. Because, communism was not a Russian idea and therefore could never work in the Rodina.

Fifth, depending on who you talk to, Russia is 2/10/30/etc. days from running out of logistics. Men, machines, ammo, everything. For now, I’m leaning towards the point being within the next two weeks. Problem is, a lot can happen in that time. To both/all sides. As that point approaches, things are going to get dicey, as Vladimir’s desperation will increase. Desperate men do stupid and desperate things. Given that he was willing to kill his own people to seize power, and delights in horrible deaths for those he regards as traitors, there are no bets or options off the table. Anyone saying options are off the table is a fool. The only person taking options off the table in public is Biden, and he has choked on every military op he’s been involved with as a politician. Remember who it was who recommended aborting the mission to kill OBL? The only thing that scares me worse than Mr. Run Away making decisions about combat is someone on his team aware that he is weak and deciding that a strong and forceful position and/or action is needed… Think on in a minute.

Sixth, while I understand and can even sympathize a bit with some of the newer NATO members who remember being ruled by the USSR and want no part of the new Russia World, neither NATO or the U.S. need to be in the fight. There are zero reasons for our troops to be there. The Ukrainians? Hell yes. They have done an amazing job and I support them doing it. I support the idea of their neighbors and others arming/helping arm them. I wish we had started stocking them up last fall. But, send things, not people. And the newer NATO members need to stop trying to push things so that NATO does get involved.

Maybe more later today. Yesterday was the cardiologist and today is yet another doctor.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine