For all who have commented or contacted with input on the shoulder replacement, THANK YOU! Lots of good info, and some extra questions to ask the replacement surgeon Tuesday.
We are supposed to go over what does need to be done, how, when, etc., and I’m working up a list of questions. Especially since they want me to consider doing both shoulders at once. That is going to take some serious persuasion, though if they can make a good case…
The other area will be my insurance, as in what they will cover and what they might not. That’s the potential wrench in the gears, but we will see.
Did get in about six miles walking yesterday, doesn’t look good for today between weather and what the front coming in is doing to my joints.
Let’s start with a bit of a mini-rant: The Kremlin IS NOT A BUILDING! It’s a freakin brick walled fortress containing multiple buildings and extensive grounds. In fact, somewhat better than 70 acres according to some sources.
Kremlin seen from Red Square
Kremlin on the river side
Kremlin seen from river bridge
I’ve got more photos, but this gives you a better idea of the size of the place. There are many buildings, extensive gardens, and you can get in some serious walking going through some of the museums inside. The buildings are very well built, because many/most of them date from the time of the Czars — which means the walls are a yard or more thick to deal with the cold weather. They’ve found it is a far better idea to gut and build new insides in them rather than tear them down, as they are generally in good shape and far better built than modern structures.
Never mind the fact that there are reported to be multiple bunkers underneath. In fact, some decent RUMINT has it that the first such shelter was built by Stalin as an offshoot of the Moscow subway system. The rumor that special trains can take off from the Kremlin to various get-away points at need still abounds. Now, add to this the fact that Vladimir does not live at the Kremlin despite the Senate Palace being his official home. He purportedly has multiple abodes in Moscow and nearby, more than one of which is alleged to have a bunker system.
Now, two good reads on the “attack” (and I use the quotes very deliberately) are this one from Ed Morrisey and this one from Stephen Green. Lots of good food for thought in both. I’ve been holding off on my analysis because there was a lot of stuff going on in regards this, and more bad information than there should have been in some areas.
Let’s get a few things out of the way. Someone raised on my timeline on Twitter that this could have been a Doolittle-type raid to raise morale. In terms of U.S. and Western culture, possibly. However, in terms of Russian (and Ukrainian) culture, NO. It is far more likely to keep things going in Russia in support of the invasion, and even cause escalation. I can’t stress enough how different Russian culture is from our own. They are not ‘just like us but talk funny.’
Next, while I am sure a one- or two-off system could be developed to hit Moscow from Ukraine, Ukraine does not currently have systems in use that can do it. Knowing that a hit on the Kremlin, symbolic or not, would have on the Russian government and populace, I can’t see them doing it, they are not that stupid. As for sending in a A-team of something similar to launch from within Russia, why? Why not instead use it to hit more supply depots, logistic hubs, and other prime targets directly supporting the invasion as they have been doing, but deeper behind the lines?
As for it being an assassination attempt, two things. First for all that the Russians are acting all butt hurt and upset (remember prior discussion on here about this very type thing and the whole ‘if she hadn’t fought back I wouldn’t have killed her’ mindset), Vladimir is a legitimate target. So far, any attempts to go after him or other senior leaders (allegedly) have taken place when they were in occupied territory, not Russia. There is a point to that.
Second, unless you have been there it is hard to describe how well built those Czarist buildings are: yard-plus thick walls, etc. From the little, and I do stress little, fireworks show seen, I don’t see major damage occurring.
Now, let’s consider that Moscow, and the Kremlin, have air defense networks. We just talked about the additional systems brought in a few weeks ago. Now, unless this was somehow the last ride of Mathias Rust, you are talking about getting two drones through a few hundred miles of airspace allegedly on high alert. For all that I am questioning and reconsidering a number of estimates of capabilities and numbers, color me skeptical.
So, to my mind, it comes down to two choices. An act of provocation by the ultranationalists; or, a false flag by the government.
For the first, there are several groups that have been pushing to go all in, from some of the Russian milbloggers to a variety of politicians. I could easily see some of them launching such an “attack” and doing a bit of self-destruct to prevent doing any real damage. They understand how this will be perceived by the government and the public, and wanted to provide that opportunity to the government.
On the second, it is very easy to see Vladimir doing something like this so he can escalate things. After all, after blowing up apartment buildings to gain power this is nothing. Send them in, have them heroically destroyed at the last possible moment, and you have an excuse to escalate. It fits in cultural and political constraints.
NOTE: There does appear to be a growing “partisan” movement in Russia. Fires and rail sabotage are one thing, but I don’t see them as doing this as it would bring about a huge crackdown for no gain.
Either way, Vladimir is going to seize on this opportunity. It gives him a chance to rattle the Biden Regency’s cage with threats of nuclear war or more; it frees him to act with less restraint in Ukraine; and, it could allow a chance to retreat for now with honor.
Vladimir has already blamed the U.S. for the attack, with Ukraine in the role of puppet/catspaw. He knows that the nuclear threat (which isn’t much of a threat these days IMO) terrifies Biden and/or the Regency and will use it as much as he can to get as much as he can. Even on non-nuclear options, expect to see him push as hard and far as he can.
Within operations against Ukraine, he now has options to bring in more troops (clothing, ammo, and food apparently optional), and take other steps to try to gain something. Would I be surprised to see more brutal attacks on civilians, justified by this attack? No, I’d be surprised if it didn’t happen. In fact, I see a lot of petty and vicious destruction for the sake of destruction in the future, along the lines of ‘If I can’t have you, nobody will.’ I still see Vladimir using the nuke plants and more to devastate Ukraine if he can’t have it, it fits both him and the culture.
Could he use special weapons? Yes, but I think that would be stupid. I still see the chances as ten percent or less, but desperate people do stupid things. As A. Nonymous put it in a comment on a previous post: “but stupid, desperate people sometimes do stupid, desperate things.” To recap earlier discussions: current troops do not appear to have MOPP gear. Using chemical or biological agents could take out more of his troops than Ukrainian. Nuclear use will force the West to act, and possibly over-react. I think given all that is starting to come out about nuclear forces, it’s really not a great idea for him to rattle that saber or otherwise go there.
One of the reasons I held off writing until now is that almost immediately after the attack, there were reports of nuclear weapons being moved in Russia. Some of these came from normally reliable sources, but I was not seeing confirmation nor was I seeing the responses that should occur in NATO and Western forces. Turns out, disinformation, some of which may have been aimed at discrediting sources. If you are looking for alerts and fairly solid info, check out Defcon.
Now, to get to that retreat with honor option that has some of you out there jumping up and down like a 6-year-old doing the pee-pee dance. One option I do see is for Vladimir to bring together enough power (military and political) to create some “great victory” that he can then claim was the goal and pull back to the 2014 lines. Ukraine (and others) are not going to be satisfied with that, but it works for Russia and Russians. It’s even similar to something Prigozhin proposed recently.
You can jump up and down and talk world opinion and such, but just keep in mind: Vladimir Doesn’t Care! All of this has been and is focused inside the bubbles. There are several bubbles within the big one. Within that big one, the opinion of the outside world does not matter.
Oh, speaking of Prigozhin, I would take the threat to pull his troops out with a grain of salt. About a pound-sized grain of Maldon smoked salt even. I disagree with Jazz’s take in a few areas, as I think if he does pull his troops out that it will backfire on him. Given that the kiss-and-make-up with Vladimir appears to be less than some have portrayed, and that he still is setting himself up to move up one way or another, he is on thinner ice than I think many suspect. Possibly including him. Note that his war on Shoigu and Gerasimov continues, which says interesting things. He has to know that Shoigu is set to take a bullet/fall for Vladimir, so going after him at this point might not be smart.
Now, on to another point raised by the keen mind of Stephen Green. He’s disappointed to see two so-called conservatives start parroting the Kremlin line. As for Catturd, I actually do enjoy some of his posts (particularly his dog/cat posts). But, he is, as noted, a shitposter who is what I would call an EverTrumper. As for Dreher, I used to respect him, especially given his role in exposing sex abuse within the Church. I lost almost all respect for him about three years ago. In some ways he reminds me a bit of Seymour Hersh: good work early, then drek. Dreher is in the NeverTrump camp and seems ready to hang out with David French. There is really not much difference between the two camps, as neither depends on the intellect and honor of its members, only blind obedience. Sorry, I’m in the “earn my vote” club and try to think and learn before I vote.
I am pretty much with him on his conclusion. I think we do have an obligation (thank you Bill Clinton, you jerk!) to them, and agree that we can’t let this aggression go unchecked. We just can’t do it at the levels we have been, because we have already crippled ourselves military and economically. Others have to step up. I notice that the Baltics and Poland, who understand what current events and Russkiy Mir mean to their future, are stepping up big time. Would that some of our other alleged allies do the same.
I’m still very much of the opinion that Kamil Galeev and others are right. If we want peace, and we want a peaceful future, the current Russian Federation needs to be broken up. I don’t know a good way to do it, certainly not a safe way to do it, but as long as Russkiy Mir and the dream of Imperial Russia lives, no one is safe.
Sorely tempted to use stronger and more colorful language, but really don’t have the energy for it. I was diagnosed a while back with advanced severe osteoarthritis. Not much you can do for it, and when the damage gets bad surgery and augmentation/replacement is the order of the day.
Three or so years ago, I was told I needed to have my right shoulder replaced. As in immediately. Second opinion disagreed, and suggested things would be better long-term if I waited until I was 67 to have the surgery. Doc one had pushed hard enough to get my back up in terms of rapid surgery. Doc two was frankly an asshole who I decided would never touch me. That said, the put it off aspect appealed to me.
The pain, however, has gotten a lot worse recently. After rolling over in bed last week and waking up yelling in pain, I broke down and got an appointment with a shoulder specialist. Just got finished with him, and I both like him and have respect for him.
The decision on when to replace is mine. He pointed out I was the only one who could or should make that decision. That said, both shoulders are fracked. There are few areas with any space left, and most movement is bone on bone. The ball of the joints both look like they’ve been pit blasted. My arm mobility on both sides is reduced. I’ve got some thinking to do and decisions to make.
Meantime, we are going to try a strong anti-inflammatory to see if it helps with pain and comfort issues. If it works, it could buy me some time. We will see.
If any of you have been through this, or had a loved one have the shoulder replacement surgery, please leave a comment. I’m looking for the information I can’t get from a doctor, only from someone who has done it. It would be appreciated.
UPDATE: After talking with my GP today, and friends and others yesterday, I asked the ortho for the surgical referral. Next up is an appointment to review, discuss, then decide.
Having to visit doctors today, so posting may be lite. So, I thought I would do an educational post. If you don’t already know it, there is a Russian word you need to know: Smekalka. Learn about it, and the backstory to the growing number of outhouses getting vaporized in Ukraine, here. Drink warning.
A local radio show I listen to when I can has a segment they do called “Is This Anything?” where they look at events/news stories/etc. and decide if they are something or nothing. Sorting through the mass of RUMINT and real information, I’ve decided to start doing a feature called “Something, Nothing, or Hmmmm…” about various stories, and with a focus on Russia and it’s politics. At least for now.
Let’s start with the biggest nothing that got around recently: Vladimir rattling the nuclear saber yet again. Yawn. He’s now threatened to leave two other nuclear treaties. That’s probably about the only thing he can do at this point, given issues with the nuclear forces we discussed a couple of weeks ago (here and here).
Continuing to hear of issues and problems, such that if anything does try to cook off, I think it’s going to be very limited. Sarah A. Hoyt offers a take (example here) that the Soviets/Russians never did have all the bombs and missiles claimed, and the more I’m learning, the more I think she’s been on to something. Her take on all the doomsday stuff being Soviet propaganda is dead on, as they encouraged such far and wide as a means of political warfare. The Gramscian damage from those efforts is still a huge problem today.
Which is the only real reason I find this story of the U.S. wiring Ukraine with sensors interesting. If true, it is indeed interesting but does not yet rise to the level of something. Not sure it even rates a low-level Hmmmm… yet. Worth keeping an eye on.
The reports that the Russians are having problems restoring mothballed tanks in part because they were buying the ball-bearings (and other precision parts) required from the U.S. and Europe is something. It is both amusing (we aren’t alone at buying parts and more from our enemies) and annoying (we shouldn’t be selling parts to our enemies either). Russia’s problems with machine work and manufacturing is huge, and make ours look almost tame. Fact is, we are in trouble as most of our tool and die makers are over 45 years-of-age and as such retire they are not being replaced. The number of skilled machinists is not good either. Reminds me of thirty or so years ago when glass blowers became scarce. So-called “experts” had scoffed at the idea such were needed, until they disappeared and they then learned the hard way that such were indeed needed. The inability to replace precision machined parts, and rumor has it electronics as well, is why the T-55s are coming out of museums and depots and headed to Ukraine.
As for the reports Russia has taken out two Ukrainian drones in the Moscow region rates a low-level Hmmmm… for now. If Ukraine isn’t working on developing or acquiring long-range drones, I would be shocked. In this case, the report really comes across as Russian disinformation and laying groundwork for false flag ops.
This report from the Institute for the Study of War has some interesting political tidbits as well as a lot of good info (as usual). Worth noting that Prigozhin has apparently made up with Vladimir and some others. However, what caught my eye were the replacement of the Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics and the other changes apparently coming from a senior officer who has recently gained Vladimir’s favor. As they note, all of this is ultimately aimed at Gerasimov. Also, it may be a belated step to try to undo some of the damage from looting the military, as if you want to engage in corruption and steal anything not nailed down, LOGCOM is the place to start in almost any military.
This report of explosions being heard in St. Petersburg and Rostov is a solid Hmmmm… Russia having some ooopses? Ukraine doing something unexpected? Other? Good questions.
To close out today with a solid something, let’s start with this and add in the mystery fires. Unless Ukraine has been sending in multiple A-Teams, it looks like there is a growing resistance movement in Russia. Given that simple statements opposing the invasion are resulting in prison time, children to foster care, and worse, this says something. The current leadership may be in for a rockier ride than anticipated. Definitely keep an eye on this.
I want to follow up on last week’s posts a bit and also look ahead to a few other things. Meantime, if anyone does know of research being done that I’ve missed, please sing out!
The immediate first step is do some fairly straight-forward research. The thing to do is both replicate and expand the FEE experiment from Spacelab J so that several generations of frogs are raised in five different gravitational environments: microgravity, lunar gravity, Mars gravity, something between Mars and full, and full gravity. Harvest samples at various stages for detailed study on the ground, to make sure there are not subtle chemical or other changes taking place. That will provide a lot of good data, including on what level of gravity is needed for proper reproductive development. Multi-generational gives us a look at the long-term.
It may be that Lunar- or Mars-level gravity is sufficient. If not, some type of centrifuge arrangement should work. Follow-on research as to intervals of gravitational exposure should provide the data on if constant gravity is needed or not.
I would also recommend expanding the research to include fish and shrimp. Self-sustaining aquaculture would be a good way to ensure protein and other nutrients for planetary or asteroid colonies. We just need to be sure that it can be done in other than full gravity. Again, let me plug the Act of God/Island Worlds series as they touch on this a bit.
If there is interest, I can try to do a longer post on how aquaculture could be used as part of the life support system. The short version is that the “waste” from the fish and fish processing can be converted to fertilizer and/or feed, and there are ways to possibly use plankton and/or algae for photosynthesis on top of that. The fertilizer could be used to support growing rice and/or other crops.
BTW, “Eric Kotani” was the pen name of astrophysicist Yoji Kondo, who not only wrote entertaining fiction, but used it to explore concepts and possibilities. Full disclosure: Both he and John Maddox Roberts showed me great kindness over the years, and talking with either was always a pleasure.
As noted in the books, the growth of rice developed for low-gravity and confined conditions would not only provide a much needed grain, but the stalks could be used for weaving tatami-style mats to help soften what is likely to be a rather austere environment at first. Again, plant growth could be a very useful part of the environmental systems. Not to replace, but to augment and provide redundancy. The fact that plants actually need a very narrow range of light for growth, which can be provided with low-energy/low heat (heat and heat dissipation being an issue for orbital operations) LEDs, makes it feasible.
As an aside, lots of science fiction has including using grass as a carpet, particularly in space habitats. The idea is intriguing but is going to take more than just creating soil or such to lay down and grow the grass. Given problems with water, humidity, and the fact that microbes love microgravity, my suspicion is that a rather technologically advanced flooring system will be needed. Something that can provide a base for growth, the ability to provide water and other nutrients as needed, the ability to remove excess moisture, and monitor growth and other factors.
Now, as for the act of reproduction itself, no need for formal research. If informal research has not already begun, it will soon and humans are an inventive and adaptive species. Especially when it comes to sex.
Let’s just be sure that when the inevitable happens, we know what is needed for a healthy pregnancy for humans, and healthy development for food sources and pets.
I was going to go with a different title, but what the hey! It’ll get attention, even if most of today is going to get into reproductive biology and some other physiological issues.
There have been rumors of sex in space almost as long as we’ve been going up into space. The Shuttle and Spacelab were particularly rife with them, and I presume it remains so for ISS. Can’t speak to ISS, but on the Shuttle given all the cameras and monitoring of the crew (and experiments, microaccelerometers are snitches), it would have been difficult to pull off completely undetected. Still love the rumors about alien orgies to breed a new hybrid race or save a dying alien race. Yep, those rumors are still floating around out there.
Given that Newton will claim his own, you are going to need either a confined space or other assistance staying together. Especially since most spacecraft are full of knobs, handles, and other things that can and will bruise when you go bouncing around the place. Yes, remember the whole “equal and opposite reaction” thing applies. Hence the confined space or other assistance. I seem to recall that doing some basic experimentation on the act itself almost got done in the form of a porn producer trying to rent a civilian version of the Vomit Comet to do a film.
As I noted in yesterday’s post, humans are going to be humans and if there hasn’t already been such, there soon will be sex in space. This could be problematic for some reasons, but to get to them, let’s do a quick review.
When you enter orbit and microgravity, which is freefall, lots of things happen. First up, given that it is freefall and you have that feeling of an elevator dropping out from under you, the inner ear can do some interesting things. Usually you adapt in a day or three, but I have heard that some never do. Note to self, this is why some form of short-term flight is a good thing, help sort.
Second, the fluids normally held in your lower body by gravity are no longer constrained. Sensors in your neck detect large amounts of fluid, and the kidneys kick in to overdrive. First few days I’m told you pee a lot. This puts the body on a good footing for microgravity, not so good for going back to gravity. Probably a discussion for another day.
Third, there are changes to your muscles and to your skeleton. It’s not just that the muscles atrophy and the bones get less dense. There are other changes, some of which are discussed in this article in Nature (wish it were in a more reputable journal, but…). The results are interesting, especially in regards planetary ventures and counteracting some of the changes.
There are a host of other things that happen, though one stands out to my mind for true long-term ventures. Essentially, astronauts tastes in food change the longer they are in microgravity. Short version is that they started to crave spicy (flavorful) and even hot foods. Lots of things they normally enjoyed apparently lost their flavor. Yet another issue to be considered for long-term efforts.
Which brings us back to sex and reproductive biology. The fact is, gravity plays a role in everything, including reproductive biology and development. There have been some studies done using frogs, since the development cycle is fairly fast. The most recent one with which I am familiar was the Frog Embryology Experiment on Spacelab J. Here’s a link to a PDF of the mission brochure which gives an overview of the experiments and why they were being done.
When sperm enters an egg, that spot actually rotates down in response to gravity, and becomes a marking point (start?) of bilateral symmetry and the spine. In most cases, things proceed normally and a you get a tadpole that becomes a normal frog. Same with a child in terms of human reproduction. The question is, what happens without gravity?
My memories of the mission are sketchy (stupid lightning), but I remember that the experimental group were funky. As in bent and crooked. Once they returned to gravity, however, they quickly became normal looking and grew up into normal frogs if I remember the mission report correctly.
Which still leaves the question: what happens when they, or any other developing organism, don’t return to gravity? I’m really hoping someone has been looking into this on ISS, but given how gun-shy NASA was about any discussion of (or investigations touching on) reproduction of any type…
There are many challenges to long-term space operations, and creating a permanent human presence off Earth (something much needed as soon as possible). One of the largest remains humans (including psych and social issues) and the human body.
Thank you Glenn for the Instalanche! Hope to post more later after the server hamsters catch up with things. 🙂
UPDATE: Some suggestions for follow-on research and some related topics for future outposts is here.
Over at Legal Insurrection, Leslie Eastman has a good piece up on the apparent failure of the Japanese commercial moon lander. Given the failure to re-establish communications, it appears the landing has failed. I had hoped it would succeed, for several reasons, and it is disappointing.
It is also a reminder that getting to space and doing real things there is hard. Building an economically viable launch industry is hard. Building the infrastructure needed to live and work in space is hard. Elon pointed out the difficulty of building the large-scale rotating space stations of my childhood just recently. His take is that it makes more sense to build on the moon and Mars. I agree for now, though I think using asteroids as bases (a la the Act of God/Island Worlds series) is a good way to go. There are some other concepts out there for more modest structures or constellations of structures that are very interesting.
Living and working in space is going to be hard. The physiological changes the body undergoes in microgravity can be profound. The long-term effects are not yet known, because we really are only starting to be in that environment long term. We also still don’t know what will happen to fetal development in microgravity. The Frog Embryology Experiment on Spacelab J gives only limited data, though it is worth noting that the tadpoles did take on a more normal appearance and grew into normal frogs if I remember correctly. Humans being human, it is something we do need to understand.
Space-ing is hard. If we wait for the governments to lead the way, it will not happen. To get there will take drive, ambition, and old-fashioned capitalism. There are things to do, resources to tap, and plenty of opportunity. I really hope we can keep over-regulation at bay and get going.
I do wish there was some way to get all the progressives on social media to place a cash bet on Tucker’s future. Right now, they are gleefully doing something far too similar to the pee-pee dance of small children for my taste as they salivate over his alleged demise. I would be glad to put down $100 if they will match, that Tucker is back bigger and better within two years.
To be honest, I expect to see it a lot sooner than that. The media landscape has changed over the last few decades in significant ways, which a lot of people are missing. Newspapers are a relic still trying to find ways to compete in the age of electronics. The paper versions are largely money losers putting out news that is days or, in some cases, weeks old for those who dig around online. The classifieds used to carry a number of papers, yet today the classifieds mainly are there for areas where local laws demand notices be published in the classifieds… It is the online versions of the papers that carry something more timely and drive the revenue for the papers.
The Big 3 networks are now owned by other companies, in some cases entertainment companies. The news operations are largely footnotes to them, given some lip veneration to mollify some of the critics. Despite the strong efforts by some of those corporate parents to deplatform the competition that is arising from new, independent, news companies, said companies are filling niche and general markets. Streaming services and podcasts are drawing far larger audiences with critical demographics away from the old school that is corporate media.
These changes are accelerating. Tucker, I suspect, may be one of the people who have the potential to put that change into overdrive.
Keep in mind, he’s already co-founded one such new media operation, the Daily Caller. Also, if Rogan is offered $50 million by a streaming company, what do you think might be offered to Tucker? Fact is, he’s guaranteed an even larger audience and has some very interesting demographics (including Dems that the progressives have left behind – seriously, look at his info).
Personal opinion: I think the smart thing for him to do is set up a new company of his own; work out a nice deal with a streaming company; maybe do some work or ventures with the DC, OAN, Newsmax and others to build up him and them; and, tell the networks and corporate media to bugger off. In fact, if some of the Jan. 6 video is still available to him, I’d say do a special in conjunction with some else from the list above to show what Fox would not let him show.
Also personal opinion: I said bigger and better. His comments over the weekend suggest to me that he’s doing a lot of reflection and self-examination. It’s always a good thing, and I hope he is doing it, does a lot of it, and comes back from this not just a better news person, but a better person. He seems like a great guy as it is, but who knows what he could become? Think that tendency of his to support the up and comers might hit new heights?
To make a bad literary reference, corporate media are like those elves and others in Middle Earth who refused to head West, and diminish daily before our eyes. Tucker is hitting the market at a good time for an individual or even a new company to set up and come out to far better pay and even larger audiences. He will be fine. Corporate media, on the other hand…
