For all I am a bit pre-occupied by the upcoming surgery, I am trying to keep up with things. I am watching Nigeria as the attack on our diplomatic convoy says interesting things.
I’m also trying to keep up with the happenings in Russia. There is a good bit going on, from smoke (the alleged upgrades to mobile missiles) to something that may be a bit more solid. I think we could see a major upheaval within the higher levels of the Kremlin in the next few months.
The source of that is, of course, Prigozhin. His feud with the MoD is in many respects as much political as operational. So much so he ended up on the outs with Vladimir and while there are some reports that there was some level of reconciliation, the response to Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut rather clearly indicated not so much. Nevermind that directly or by proxy he seems to be taking steps to possibly make a run at the top spot.
He very much continues to push the limits of what criticism can be made against Vladimir, and seems determined to not just push that line but eradicate it. His comments and rants are beyond current cultural norms for such, and he seems to want to go even further. That is a rather risky thing to do in Russia, particularly right now, unless he is willing to make a true play for the top.
The Washington Post “expose” of his alleged dealings with Ukrainian intelligence is not helping his position in Russia. For all the pro-forma being said by the government in public, in private far more interesting conversations seem to be happening. I do have questions about the leak, as I don’t trust anything from the Post, especially something like this.
Do I expect anything to happen in the next couple of weeks? No. Not unless someone gets a major case of the stupids. Do I think things could come to a head in regards Prigozhin in the next three months? Oh, yes. Particularly if he continues his efforts to criticize Vladimir while continuing to make behind-the-scenes preparations. I’ve talked before about the cultural norms, and by moving beyond them Prigozhin is not just alienating a lot of potential support, but ensuring opposition to any political moves in a number of quarters.
For those interested in the WP “leak” and a different (but similar) take on things, check out this from the ISW.
Let’s start with a bit of a mini-rant: The Kremlin IS NOT A BUILDING! It’s a freakin brick walled fortress containing multiple buildings and extensive grounds. In fact, somewhat better than 70 acres according to some sources.
Kremlin seen from Red Square
Kremlin on the river side
Kremlin seen from river bridge
I’ve got more photos, but this gives you a better idea of the size of the place. There are many buildings, extensive gardens, and you can get in some serious walking going through some of the museums inside. The buildings are very well built, because many/most of them date from the time of the Czars — which means the walls are a yard or more thick to deal with the cold weather. They’ve found it is a far better idea to gut and build new insides in them rather than tear them down, as they are generally in good shape and far better built than modern structures.
Never mind the fact that there are reported to be multiple bunkers underneath. In fact, some decent RUMINT has it that the first such shelter was built by Stalin as an offshoot of the Moscow subway system. The rumor that special trains can take off from the Kremlin to various get-away points at need still abounds. Now, add to this the fact that Vladimir does not live at the Kremlin despite the Senate Palace being his official home. He purportedly has multiple abodes in Moscow and nearby, more than one of which is alleged to have a bunker system.
Now, two good reads on the “attack” (and I use the quotes very deliberately) are this one from Ed Morrisey and this one from Stephen Green. Lots of good food for thought in both. I’ve been holding off on my analysis because there was a lot of stuff going on in regards this, and more bad information than there should have been in some areas.
Let’s get a few things out of the way. Someone raised on my timeline on Twitter that this could have been a Doolittle-type raid to raise morale. In terms of U.S. and Western culture, possibly. However, in terms of Russian (and Ukrainian) culture, NO. It is far more likely to keep things going in Russia in support of the invasion, and even cause escalation. I can’t stress enough how different Russian culture is from our own. They are not ‘just like us but talk funny.’
Next, while I am sure a one- or two-off system could be developed to hit Moscow from Ukraine, Ukraine does not currently have systems in use that can do it. Knowing that a hit on the Kremlin, symbolic or not, would have on the Russian government and populace, I can’t see them doing it, they are not that stupid. As for sending in a A-team of something similar to launch from within Russia, why? Why not instead use it to hit more supply depots, logistic hubs, and other prime targets directly supporting the invasion as they have been doing, but deeper behind the lines?
As for it being an assassination attempt, two things. First for all that the Russians are acting all butt hurt and upset (remember prior discussion on here about this very type thing and the whole ‘if she hadn’t fought back I wouldn’t have killed her’ mindset), Vladimir is a legitimate target. So far, any attempts to go after him or other senior leaders (allegedly) have taken place when they were in occupied territory, not Russia. There is a point to that.
Second, unless you have been there it is hard to describe how well built those Czarist buildings are: yard-plus thick walls, etc. From the little, and I do stress little, fireworks show seen, I don’t see major damage occurring.
Now, let’s consider that Moscow, and the Kremlin, have air defense networks. We just talked about the additional systems brought in a few weeks ago. Now, unless this was somehow the last ride of Mathias Rust, you are talking about getting two drones through a few hundred miles of airspace allegedly on high alert. For all that I am questioning and reconsidering a number of estimates of capabilities and numbers, color me skeptical.
So, to my mind, it comes down to two choices. An act of provocation by the ultranationalists; or, a false flag by the government.
For the first, there are several groups that have been pushing to go all in, from some of the Russian milbloggers to a variety of politicians. I could easily see some of them launching such an “attack” and doing a bit of self-destruct to prevent doing any real damage. They understand how this will be perceived by the government and the public, and wanted to provide that opportunity to the government.
On the second, it is very easy to see Vladimir doing something like this so he can escalate things. After all, after blowing up apartment buildings to gain power this is nothing. Send them in, have them heroically destroyed at the last possible moment, and you have an excuse to escalate. It fits in cultural and political constraints.
NOTE: There does appear to be a growing “partisan” movement in Russia. Fires and rail sabotage are one thing, but I don’t see them as doing this as it would bring about a huge crackdown for no gain.
Either way, Vladimir is going to seize on this opportunity. It gives him a chance to rattle the Biden Regency’s cage with threats of nuclear war or more; it frees him to act with less restraint in Ukraine; and, it could allow a chance to retreat for now with honor.
Vladimir has already blamed the U.S. for the attack, with Ukraine in the role of puppet/catspaw. He knows that the nuclear threat (which isn’t much of a threat these days IMO) terrifies Biden and/or the Regency and will use it as much as he can to get as much as he can. Even on non-nuclear options, expect to see him push as hard and far as he can.
Within operations against Ukraine, he now has options to bring in more troops (clothing, ammo, and food apparently optional), and take other steps to try to gain something. Would I be surprised to see more brutal attacks on civilians, justified by this attack? No, I’d be surprised if it didn’t happen. In fact, I see a lot of petty and vicious destruction for the sake of destruction in the future, along the lines of ‘If I can’t have you, nobody will.’ I still see Vladimir using the nuke plants and more to devastate Ukraine if he can’t have it, it fits both him and the culture.
Could he use special weapons? Yes, but I think that would be stupid. I still see the chances as ten percent or less, but desperate people do stupid things. As A. Nonymous put it in a comment on a previous post: “but stupid, desperate people sometimes do stupid, desperate things.” To recap earlier discussions: current troops do not appear to have MOPP gear. Using chemical or biological agents could take out more of his troops than Ukrainian. Nuclear use will force the West to act, and possibly over-react. I think given all that is starting to come out about nuclear forces, it’s really not a great idea for him to rattle that saber or otherwise go there.
One of the reasons I held off writing until now is that almost immediately after the attack, there were reports of nuclear weapons being moved in Russia. Some of these came from normally reliable sources, but I was not seeing confirmation nor was I seeing the responses that should occur in NATO and Western forces. Turns out, disinformation, some of which may have been aimed at discrediting sources. If you are looking for alerts and fairly solid info, check out Defcon.
Now, to get to that retreat with honor option that has some of you out there jumping up and down like a 6-year-old doing the pee-pee dance. One option I do see is for Vladimir to bring together enough power (military and political) to create some “great victory” that he can then claim was the goal and pull back to the 2014 lines. Ukraine (and others) are not going to be satisfied with that, but it works for Russia and Russians. It’s even similar to something Prigozhin proposed recently.
You can jump up and down and talk world opinion and such, but just keep in mind: Vladimir Doesn’t Care! All of this has been and is focused inside the bubbles. There are several bubbles within the big one. Within that big one, the opinion of the outside world does not matter.
Oh, speaking of Prigozhin, I would take the threat to pull his troops out with a grain of salt. About a pound-sized grain of Maldon smoked salt even. I disagree with Jazz’s take in a few areas, as I think if he does pull his troops out that it will backfire on him. Given that the kiss-and-make-up with Vladimir appears to be less than some have portrayed, and that he still is setting himself up to move up one way or another, he is on thinner ice than I think many suspect. Possibly including him. Note that his war on Shoigu and Gerasimov continues, which says interesting things. He has to know that Shoigu is set to take a bullet/fall for Vladimir, so going after him at this point might not be smart.
Now, on to another point raised by the keen mind of Stephen Green. He’s disappointed to see two so-called conservatives start parroting the Kremlin line. As for Catturd, I actually do enjoy some of his posts (particularly his dog/cat posts). But, he is, as noted, a shitposter who is what I would call an EverTrumper. As for Dreher, I used to respect him, especially given his role in exposing sex abuse within the Church. I lost almost all respect for him about three years ago. In some ways he reminds me a bit of Seymour Hersh: good work early, then drek. Dreher is in the NeverTrump camp and seems ready to hang out with David French. There is really not much difference between the two camps, as neither depends on the intellect and honor of its members, only blind obedience. Sorry, I’m in the “earn my vote” club and try to think and learn before I vote.
I am pretty much with him on his conclusion. I think we do have an obligation (thank you Bill Clinton, you jerk!) to them, and agree that we can’t let this aggression go unchecked. We just can’t do it at the levels we have been, because we have already crippled ourselves military and economically. Others have to step up. I notice that the Baltics and Poland, who understand what current events and Russkiy Mir mean to their future, are stepping up big time. Would that some of our other alleged allies do the same.
I’m still very much of the opinion that Kamil Galeev and others are right. If we want peace, and we want a peaceful future, the current Russian Federation needs to be broken up. I don’t know a good way to do it, certainly not a safe way to do it, but as long as Russkiy Mir and the dream of Imperial Russia lives, no one is safe.
Having to visit doctors today, so posting may be lite. So, I thought I would do an educational post. If you don’t already know it, there is a Russian word you need to know: Smekalka. Learn about it, and the backstory to the growing number of outhouses getting vaporized in Ukraine, here. Drink warning.
A local radio show I listen to when I can has a segment they do called “Is This Anything?” where they look at events/news stories/etc. and decide if they are something or nothing. Sorting through the mass of RUMINT and real information, I’ve decided to start doing a feature called “Something, Nothing, or Hmmmm…” about various stories, and with a focus on Russia and it’s politics. At least for now.
Let’s start with the biggest nothing that got around recently: Vladimir rattling the nuclear saber yet again. Yawn. He’s now threatened to leave two other nuclear treaties. That’s probably about the only thing he can do at this point, given issues with the nuclear forces we discussed a couple of weeks ago (here and here).
Continuing to hear of issues and problems, such that if anything does try to cook off, I think it’s going to be very limited. Sarah A. Hoyt offers a take (example here) that the Soviets/Russians never did have all the bombs and missiles claimed, and the more I’m learning, the more I think she’s been on to something. Her take on all the doomsday stuff being Soviet propaganda is dead on, as they encouraged such far and wide as a means of political warfare. The Gramscian damage from those efforts is still a huge problem today.
Which is the only real reason I find this story of the U.S. wiring Ukraine with sensors interesting. If true, it is indeed interesting but does not yet rise to the level of something. Not sure it even rates a low-level Hmmmm… yet. Worth keeping an eye on.
The reports that the Russians are having problems restoring mothballed tanks in part because they were buying the ball-bearings (and other precision parts) required from the U.S. and Europe is something. It is both amusing (we aren’t alone at buying parts and more from our enemies) and annoying (we shouldn’t be selling parts to our enemies either). Russia’s problems with machine work and manufacturing is huge, and make ours look almost tame. Fact is, we are in trouble as most of our tool and die makers are over 45 years-of-age and as such retire they are not being replaced. The number of skilled machinists is not good either. Reminds me of thirty or so years ago when glass blowers became scarce. So-called “experts” had scoffed at the idea such were needed, until they disappeared and they then learned the hard way that such were indeed needed. The inability to replace precision machined parts, and rumor has it electronics as well, is why the T-55s are coming out of museums and depots and headed to Ukraine.
As for the reports Russia has taken out two Ukrainian drones in the Moscow region rates a low-level Hmmmm… for now. If Ukraine isn’t working on developing or acquiring long-range drones, I would be shocked. In this case, the report really comes across as Russian disinformation and laying groundwork for false flag ops.
This report from the Institute for the Study of War has some interesting political tidbits as well as a lot of good info (as usual). Worth noting that Prigozhin has apparently made up with Vladimir and some others. However, what caught my eye were the replacement of the Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics and the other changes apparently coming from a senior officer who has recently gained Vladimir’s favor. As they note, all of this is ultimately aimed at Gerasimov. Also, it may be a belated step to try to undo some of the damage from looting the military, as if you want to engage in corruption and steal anything not nailed down, LOGCOM is the place to start in almost any military.
This report of explosions being heard in St. Petersburg and Rostov is a solid Hmmmm… Russia having some ooopses? Ukraine doing something unexpected? Other? Good questions.
To close out today with a solid something, let’s start with this and add in the mystery fires. Unless Ukraine has been sending in multiple A-Teams, it looks like there is a growing resistance movement in Russia. Given that simple statements opposing the invasion are resulting in prison time, children to foster care, and worse, this says something. The current leadership may be in for a rockier ride than anticipated. Definitely keep an eye on this.
Elon Musk made a post that proved to be part of an interesting thread. The current intelligence disaster has revealed concerns about Chinese hypervelocity vehicles and that they are preparing to go all out against the U.S. Navy. No shit.
This is a party that’s been going on a while, and yes the Chinese are very serious about this. Far more so than our Navy appears to be at this time. Before the Chinese were the Soviets, and the object that was labeled a “mini-Shuttle” and often presented as a scale model test.
Just one problem with that: it really didn’t scale up/could not be scaled up according to a number of analysts. Then, when you looked at the tests of the vehicle, well, they had a naval component and didn’t seem to fit a “space” profile per se. To a number of people, including me, it really seemed to fit the profile of a Hypervelocity Kill Vehicle (HKV)/Hypervelocity Ship Killer (HSK).
Add in the fact that defending against objects moving at those speeds can be a bit of a challenge, and that if something that size hit a carrier at speed it could go through it long-ways. Except that it and the carrier would probably be a rapidly expanding fireball by that point. Even a near-miss could have potentially catastrophic results for both the carrier and any ships nearby.
There was a lot of “never happen” and the concerns were poo-pooed in the usual quarters, but at least a few people paid attention. Would that I thought any current GOFO or civilian military leadership was doing so today. For all that some are claiming hypervelocity delivery vehicles and such are over-hyped, they truly are a game changer, even when they don’t carry explosives.
Reader Nichevo asked a couple of good questions the other day, and today I’m going to try to answer the second one. Why does the change in from the SARMAT (aka SATAN II) to the YARS matter? This also will allow some expansion on my twenty percent references.
Let’s start by stating the obvious: nuclear weapons, particularly modern “safe” nuclear weapons, are extremely complex systems. Aside from various critters we’ve considered for use in weapons delivery, and we have looked at a surprising array of those, modern delivery systems are extremely complex systems. Most delivery systems today are multi-stage in that one system launches yet another system. Missiles launch independent re-entry vehicles. Aircraft launch cruise missiles at targets. Submarines launch missiles which may or may not have more than one independent re-entry vehicles. I am not trying to be obnoxious here, there really is a reason for getting this basic, please be patient.
There are two basic types of missile/rocket in use today: those that use solid rocket motors or liquid-fueled engines. Solid-fuel motors are pretty much like a bottle rocket. You light it, the fuel burns, and it burns until gone. Liquid-fueled engines can be cut on and off multiple times. Yes, for the pedantic, there are indeed some solid engines out there, and some motors that can be cut off at need. Yes, I’m sure you can create hybrid systems, and for a number of reasons that’s all I’m going to say about solid engines and hybrids. ICBMs tend to go tried and true for rather obvious reasons (that clearly aren’t obvious to some) and use either solid motors or liquid engines.
Third obvious point: modern delivery systems at all levels are far more accurate than their predecessors. When you look at Circular Error Probability (CEP) we’ve gone from hitting miles away from the target to hitting inches from the target. And that’s even with many modern delivery systems being able to maneuver in an effort to avoid defensive fire. The more modern the missile or delivery vehicle, the more accurate it is likely to be.
I’m going to drop the old proper style, and not do the all-caps thing on names. Sarmat, aka Satan II, aka the RS-28 is the latest and greatest Russian long-range ICBM allegedly in production. It can fly deceptive courses! It has longer range than any system the decadent West has produced! It carries more and larger warheads, and can carry a mix of standard and hypersonic delivery vehicles! It slices! It dices! The West has nothing that can stand up to it!! Sorry, think I just channeled Vladimir doing his rendition of Goodgulf Greyteeth’s rant on hocus pocus in Bored of the Rings.
It is also several years behind schedule, as it was expected to fully replace the remaining Satan-I, aka the R-36, aka the SS-18 two to three years ago if I’m remembering correctly (stupid lightning). Which suggests development or production problems, if not both. Sarmat is a liquid-fueled system that appears to have a rather complex launch system, as you can see here in this video. Note the “successful” test shown comes after the date previously announced by Russia for it to be operational. More on this in a moment.
The Yars system, a solid-fuel system, was introduced around 2010, and is an upgrade of the older Topol-M system. It is limited to three warheads as opposed to the 10-12 warheads (yeah, there are some arguments/debates/mixes) possible with a Sarmat. Note older, and solid-fuel.
One of those obvious reasons for tried and true is that with solids, there is no lost time loading fuel or doing anything else. Turn the key, press the button, they are reliable. Provided you’ve stored them correctly and replaced segments as they hit end of service life. Otherwise, you get cracks and other delights, and you always have the chance of voids in the fuel from production issues. In which case, that motor segment is going to get cranky. If it gets cranky anywhere at or near ground level, trust me you will feel it ten to twenty miles away.
So, why go with an older, likely less accurate, and less capable system? Look at what’s gone on at the ISS recently. Something caused a Soyuz capsule to lose it’s coolant, rather spectacularly. It may have been a micrometeorite. Some observers have noted other issues, and there has been discussion of shoddy workmanship (Soviet-era level) and possible sabotage with the Russian vehicles. Bad workmanship or sabotage of liquid-fuel rocket systems.
There are a lot of people, including some who should know better, that have maintained loudly that the Russians would never have skimped on their nuclear systems, or extended the corruption that took over the military to it. Really? In what flippin universe?
Hypothetical question for you. If there was indeed a failed launch attempt during the Biden Regency visit to Ukraine, what do you want to bet it was a Sarmat? After all, if you are going to do a demo and make a point a la Khrushchev at the UN, why would you not use your latest and greatest?
To be fair, the Soviet Union had a history of shoddy workmanship. Identical spacecraft where parts couldn’t be exchanged between them. Soviet rockets used so many engines because they expected to lose up to a third of them on any given launch. If you are curious, I think Jim Oberg has talked about it a few times, possibly in his book Red Star In Orbit and various magazine articles. Others have as well. While things were reportedly improving in the Russian Federation, we may be seeing a return to the Soviet era ‘they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work’ mindset.
We may also be seeing a different form of defiance. Sabotage by disgruntled workers would not be a new thing for Russia. Keep in mind that despite all the attempts to smash it, there is an anti-war effort and it appears to be growing. I’ve been hearing a lot of reports of sabotage across Russia, but have also been taking those with a grain of salt. I’m at a point where I’m giving the idea credence.
Which takes us back to my somewhat pedantic start to this article. My search-fu is off today as I can’t find the link, but a while back Glenn Reynolds was — I think — the first to openly comment on the twenty percent concept. At the height of the Cold War, the Brass was pushing the concept of 100 percent EWO (Emergency War Orders) ready. If the brass asked ‘Are you EWO ready?’ the answer better be ‘Sir, yes Sir! I am EWO ready Sir!’ Anyone with a brain knew that this was impossible, but it ensured that we could make the 80 percent threshold. That is, with all those complex systems, 80 percent of them would work. I suspect that 90 percent really was the goal, but…
Anyway, if the codes went out, at least 80 percent of the bombers would take off, 80 percent of the missiles would launch, 80 percent of the bombs would explode, etc.
Glenn was the first to say, in effect, that we would be lucky if twenty percent worked. The old equation has been stood on its head. I hope and pray we never find out, but I’m hitting a point where I think that if 10 percent worked I would be surprised. Complex systems require maintenance, testing, and upgrades. What’s the first thing that gets cut when Gen. Cyrus wants to have another struggle session on white rage during one of the lowest budgets in decades? Or, your newly minted “officer” who is really a civilian there to loot so he can maybe become a true oligarch, looks for easy money? Old story, on pretty much every side out there. Sigh.
That Russia is having to drop it’s nuclear threat to an older and more limited system speaks volumes. It says a lot about production, and the hints of sabotage are getting louder. It is also the strongest indicator yet that Russian nuclear forces have been, and possibly still are, getting gutted by corruption just like the rest of the military. Like I say, there is a lot of RUMINT going around, but there are enough indicators for me to feel confident on this.
So much so I am dropping my 40/60 60/40 level. I think we have less than a ten percent chance of any nuclear usage, but will drop the likelihood to 10 percent. The only reason I’m going that high is that stupidity is still a factor. MAD depended on stable and competent leadership. Right now, we have the Biden Regency, which is the Leroy Jenkins of competent action; Vladimir with health and other issues, including an associate who is looking to unseat him; Xi has more problems than many realizes; and, well, you get the idea.
The percentage really doesn’t matter in some respects. We have nuclear weapons and war being threatened as it is the last illusion of power Russia has to wave at the world. That, and Biden told Vladimir how scared he was of nuclear war and apparently that he would do anything to avoid it. What do we do about it? I’m going to try to write about that tomorrow.
For anyone just dropping by, this page has a lot of links to previous work, and this page is dedicated to nuclear articles. Feel free to take your time, browse around, heck, if you’ve got an adult beverage or a good cigar, go for it.
UPDATE: To answer/agree with several comments, disbanding SAC was a huge mistake. In fact, it was a clusterfuck of such a magnitude that I suspect it was felt in other dimensions. Those responsible deserve every bit of contempt and disdain that those competent in life can spare. I’m not sure we have the time and ability to recover from their gross incompetence.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
My post last week on Complex Reality did not go over well in some quarters. In fact, only David Strom at Hot Air got it at all, and his twitter thread was a good take. Much appreciated too. Several took me to task for failing to provide good counter-options to the Chamberlin Brigade and the War Brigade.
There are no good options to suggest.
Give me a moment here and let’s review a few things. There are indeed options, but none of them are what I would call good options.
First up, we would not be in the mess except for the fact that we have incompetent leadership. The Biden Regency is corrupt, incompetent, and unswervingly bent on ideological matters (fundamentally transforming America). Our military leadership is equally incompetent and all in on the religious conversion (on the religious aspect, see Glenn’s take here). We are well past the point any remaining competent GOFOs should have been putting stars on the table (and, honestly, even birds and bars). If any have, it’s not made the general run of RUMINT yet. The current lot of GOFOs couldn’t organize a drinking party in a distillery (yes, tempted to use a different analogy but the Pentagon is already one of the largest whorehouses in DC), and actually winning a war is not even on the table. Proper party indoctrination takes time and money, and, who needs a training budget anyway given they see time spent on struggle sessions as being far more important than actual combat training. Before I go on a rant about this and other things, here’s a point to consider: name me one thing of importance our so-called elites have been right about in the past year; the past three years; the past five years; or, the last ten years.
Then again, Russia has its problems too. Oligarchy and a system that puts a very different take on doing in the competition (and extends it to all walks and levels of life) tends to stifle innovation and competition. Corruption at all levels, and in all branches of service, tends to give you a military that can’t live up to the hype.
Add to it a leadership and population who absolutely believe that the West invaded them after the fall of communism and that they are literally at war with the West, and it makes the situation even touchier. This, and other memes, are often dismissed as propaganda by well-educated idiots in said West, but are the real cultural belief of a complex people who are not ‘just like us but speak funny.’ The roots of this really do go back to the Enlightenment, and to the decision to go with the German model rather than the British when the Czars (Czarina) decided to “modernize” Russia a few hundred years back. And, yes, the anti-British/anti-West roots of the modern Slavophile movement do go back that far.
Now, throw in this little ice water douche into the mix. The argument is often made we have no viable reason to support Ukraine as they are not a member of NATO, etc. Back when the Soviet Union fell, Ukraine suddenly found itself the third largest nuclear power in the world. For a number of reasons, pretty much nobody was happy with that, so the United States and other countries and entities stepped up to guarantee Ukraine’s safety if they gave up all those nukes. Now, the fact is we pretty much abrogated our responsibilities under those agreements back in the wake of the first Russian invasion. Yet, they do still bind us as a matter of honor. While honor is in short supply in political and military leadership around the world, it is something a country should be very careful about discarding completely. It takes generations to rebuild the trust that is lost, and as David and I discussed on Twitter, I don’t think we’ve got those generations.
The magic money press the Biden Regency is running flat out is flat out running us into the ground. We literally can’t afford to keep it running as the bills for that magic money are already past due. We also are facing shortages of critical weapons, as I noted last week. Beege Wellborn has been all over this on Twitter, and courtesy of an exchange she had, I suggest you read this and consider the following.
We are talking about years to decades (and if you want to see schedules slip, look at any military procurement schedule) to restock to peacetime levels. Way things are going, we don’t have that much time. We also need to be building up to wartime levels and training/recruiting to fight a two front war, as that is the quickest way to stop any number of aggressions. Right now, the Brits are facing running out of critical supplies in one day (HT Instapundit). I’ve been hearing for a while that we are looking at doing so in three days. I will simply note again (and again and again) that peacetime stocks are a joke, and anyone who tells you they are sufficient is also a joke.
A good solution to the current situation would be to cut spending, use the Defense Production Act for actual military supplies and needs, and supply actual arms to Ukraine with audit and oversight to ensure they don’t end up on the black market. The billions need to stop. At least from us. Oh, and we need to get back to training to win wars, not how to win a drag show.
That radical Jazz Shaw actually proposed something along those lines, with having other NATO members actually step up to their obligations. I think that’s a great idea, and Germany should take the lead. Then again, in some ways I’m a radical too.
Given our leadership, as well as theirs, that’s not going to happen. The Regency is fine with the billions and the money laundering. If you don’t think there is any, you might want to look at Sam the Scam and how many funds went into his crypto operation from Ukraine. Just a hint, but that’s the tip of the iceberg.
Until we can sustain what we are doing, we need to cut back on what is going to Ukraine. We need others to step up and match deeds to words when it comes to supplying arms and funds. Where there are roadblocks to them doing so, we need to remove those roadblocks if we can do so. This is not a good solution, but it is workable — sorta.
The fact is, if Vladimir and Russia are not stopped now, we are going to have a bigger problem later when they go after all the former republics. And, yes, they will do so. And go for even more besides. For all that many here deride Russkiy Mir as a joke, it is not such to the Russians. It is the blueprint for Slavophile redemption, and they will pursue it religiously unless they are unable to do so. I agree with Kamil Galeev that the only way that happens is if the Russian Federation breaks up or is broken up. On the latter, no “safe” way to do that and on the former odds are against it despite certain areas being restive in regards rule by Moscow. For all that China wants certain areas back, and Russia seems to be willing to risk the China trap (and Xi appears to be pulling out the stops to get Ukraine to fall completely into the Chinese Road trap), I wouldn’t count on external factors yet.
Quick aside for Zelensky: be careful, China will offer all sorts of loans and massive rebuilding for a fee. When you can’t pay, they seize and either retain — or sell it to Russian ownership. Just a hint, as even I can see that one coming.
Again, reality is complex and rarely subject to simple or simplistic solutions. There is not a good solution to the problem that is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There are varying degrees of unpalatable solutions, none of which address many of the real if underlying issues at play. Trust me, if I spot what I think might be even a glimmer of a realistic solution to restore peace and prevent the next war, I’ll be shouting it from the rooftops. Until then…
I’ve been watching both the Chamberlin Brigade and War Brigade go at it for the last few weeks, and shaking my head. We are well past the point where adult discussion is needed, but we also appear in no danger of such taking place anytime soon. Instead, there is a whole bunch of reeeeing within the Beltway involving Presidential politics while the American public outside the Beltway is just looking at those inside the beltway like the purple-clothed guy in the meme.
The Chamberlin Brigade is breathlessly touting peace-at-any-price because oh my stars we might have WWIII and it might go nuclear. No shit! Really? That was a possibility from the start, and Vladimir has played it to the hilt because that threat has worked for him on many levels and with far too many leaders. Let’s just say that when one world leader tells another he’s scared to death of nuclear war and will do anything to avoid it, it gives the other a tremendous amount of leverage. Especially when the one with the leverage knows that the other leader is a demented meat puppet who’s Regency is incompetent and more focused on day-to-day venality.
It also doesn’t help that quite a bit of the world remembers the guarantees made when Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons on its soil. Those watching now know exactly what those guarantees were worth, and the quicksand on which current promises are made. Especially when one looks at the divisions within NATO. Particularly the division between those newer members who have been serious about their commitments and readiness, and those older states who have chosen to ignore those commitments and count on the United States to fund (directly and indirectly) their social programs and provide true defense for them. Particularly one member who rather cheerfully bet their whole future, energy and otherwise, on partnerships and other agreements with a known unfriendly power — and who’s companies continue to defy sanctions to provide that unfriendly power with tech and more. In regard that member, this is an interesting read. Of course, they are not alone on that and it is amazing the number of companies around the world cheerfully joining in on that short-sighted effort, including (apparently) some in the U.S.
The Chamberlin Brigade lives in the fantasy that since the U.S. is the major provider for the Ukraine, that it can impose an immediate cease-fire and settlement. That they can force Ukraine to cede territory, stop the fighting, and all will be well. Peace, light, joy, all joining together to sing Kumbaya, and cute fuzzy predators and prey frolicking peacefully together in the fields. This, of course, demands ignoring things starting with 2014 and going backwards. It also demands ignoring most world history of the last 300 or so years, especially the politics of the region.
The fact is, that even before Russkiy Mir, the Baltics, Poland, and others were inclined to look at Russian promises askance, if not flat out disbelief. They know very well what Russian promises of peace, of friendship, and other such things are worth. As it is, they have paid far more attention to the efforts to create the new Russian Empire than the over-educated idiots in DC who are far more focused on internal politics and empire building than in external affairs or even rudimentary competence. The memories of what it means to be a neighbor and then vassal of Russia linger, and the centuries do not dim them. Most have experiences far more recent, and if you want but one example ask an Estonian about the Soviet bombing of Tallinnn during WWII, and the interesting targeting of same. These are people who know in the marrow of their bones what any Russian peace or non-aggression pact or promise is worth.
They are also well aware of current Russian efforts to destabilize their countries. If you think Moldova is the only country where such efforts are underway, again I have a bridge for sale cheap. It even extends beyond the former client states, as seen here. All of the former Soviet-occupied countries are aware of such fifth columns, just as they are all aware of Russian intelligence and sabotage efforts, such as what was just broken up in Poland. This is all a rich tradition that goes back decades, and is far more extensive than many realize. Just look at Soviet involvement with the environmental movement, Greens, Green Party, etc. If it would destabilize the West and undermine the concepts of the Enlightenment, they were and are all-in.
The War Brigade is just as willfully short-sighted in their efforts. They see an “easy” proxy war fought under many of the same rules as Vietnam et al, not accepting that the world has changed a bit since then. Heck, or even since the proxy wars in Central and South America, some of which technically are still going. A good proxy war could last a long, long time and offer all sorts of opportunities for graft, money laundering, and other delights. That assumes that everyone is willing to play by the old rules, and Xi and others haven’t shown a particular desire to do so. Yep, bringing up Winnie the Xi as this is NOT just a regional conflict.
It is already WWIII on many levels, as the players extend far beyond just Russia and Ukraine. It extends well beyond the Baltics, Eastern Europe, and Scandinavia. It includes North Korea, China, Iran, and even a few others. Both the Chamberlin Brigade and the War Brigade are ignoring that reality for all they are worth. Just as they are humming and drumming their feet over the reality on the ground in the region. They are ignoring the fact that the Ukrainian people, not just their leadership, are pissed off and fighting the invasion. They are ignoring that the Baltics and others would rather slag their own countries than return to being any part of the new greater Russian empire. They are ignoring that the last time this was tried we went from less than a million dead to tens of millions dead in less than a generation. They ignore that peace-at-any-price has never worked at any time in history.
What is the answer? I don’t know. The worst long-term outcome is for the Chamberlin Brigade to win, as it guarantees a much worse bloodbath not too far in the future that is likely to include non-limited use of nuclear or other special weapons. The worst short-term outcome is likely to be if the War Brigade gets its way, as things may escalate in ways not anticipated. My take remains that if Vladimir can’t take Ukraine, he will make sure no one gets it via using the destruction of the nuclear plants to render it, and even parts of the Baltics, a wasteland. That it might do so to parts of Western Russia is just the cost of doing business.
Factor in that the U.S. can’t afford to keep sending billions of dollars and tons of weapons to the conflict. Our economy and banking system are a tottering house of cards. We have already sent critical stocks of multiple weapons/systems that will take us years to replace. If we got into a shooting war with a major power (cough, China, cough), we are like NATO in that we will be doing good to have three days of critical supplies. We are well below critical levels in a number of areas, and that fact has indeed been noted by our enemies. While there are some token efforts to boost production, at current levels it will take not years, but decades, to replenish peace-time stocks. Here’s a clue for free: peacetime levels are always massively below wartime needs. In peace, the beancounters rule and why maintain massive stocks when DIE and other nice-to-dos need funding? War requires massive amounts of stocks, unless you are willing to expend troops in place of munitions. Might want to ask the Russians how that’s working out for them. The War Brigade might also want to look at our falling recruitment and retention numbers, and may also want to look at the percentages of same going back a decade or so that involve actual combat troops and leaders.
My personal take remains that I hope Ukraine kicks Vladimir’s ass and gets back ALL their territory. Russkiy Mir needs to be stopped, not encouraged. I also still feel that this is not a fight that needs even one drop of blood from our troops. Our ability to continue to provide funds and war stocks to the Ukraine is already well beyond unsustainable. We can’t fight a one front war under current circumstances, much less a two-front war as called for. What is done and how do we do it? I don’t have an answer. Of those I’ve seen who say they do, reality doesn’t seem to be a factor in those plans.
There is more I wanted to get into today, such as demographics, the role of prison culture in Russian life and high-level politics, the Enlightenment and why Russia hates the British, and other factors, but the above is where my Muse led me. Tomorrow is not likely a day when I get to delve into any of those areas as it is a medical day. Joy.
In this, as in all of life, there are no easy answers. Beware anyone who tells you there are such. The best I can offer for now is to be prepared, be patient, keep your things where you can find them in the dark.
NOTE: If you need anything else to disturb your sleep, read this.
Earlier this week, the always excellent and interesting Baldilocks shared a thread on Twitter dealing with the perceptions and thoughts of a certain class of Russians in regards the war. The thread is well worth reading, as are some of the comments to her tweet and my retweet.
What was reported matches what I am seeing and hearing from that class, and from others. For all that one must support the war in public, or face draconian consequences, even in private it has a lot of support. As in a WAG on my part of better than fifty percent. Yes, there are segments that don’t support and are not thrilled with things, and they tend to fall more on ethnic lines from what I’m seeing. Overall, the war has a surprising strong, wide, and deep level of support within Russia. Not universal, but pretty darn significant.
Support for Vladimir remains quite high. This varies as one goes through demographics and ethnicities, but overall strong. Two areas where this may not be true are in what I call the political oligarchia: the politicians, power brokers, oligarchs, and wanna-be oligarchs who make up the upper levels of power. The old nomenklatura concept is dead and gone. In public, this upper level is very pro-Vladimir. In private, well, it’s still not clear to me if some of what is going on behind the scenes is simply preparation for his retirement or death, or if there is something more active going on. To be fair, there are days I’m not sure those playing the great game in Russia truly know themselves. The other area is the bottom of the demographics pile, which tends to be ‘yeah, support, whatever; none of them give a damn about us.’ That may be as close to a universal concept across cultures as anything.
An important point within this is the response of that educated class to the pushback by Ukraine, NATO, and others. Note the surprise, shock even, that Europe and others not only opposed the invasion, but that they are helping Ukraine (most of whom are sadly misled and should be welcoming the return of Russia) resist. That they would potentially gut their economies to do so. This is seen as bigotry and ignorance by that class of Russians. And by others within Russia, to be honest.
That plays almost perfectly into the great Russian paranoia that everyone is out to get them. That has been a hallmark of Rus/Slav psychology going back into ancient times. They have always been treacherously set upon by others, even as they were peacefully raping, murdering, and pillaging those that set upon them. Now, Russia does have a few legitimate times when they weren’t doing something like that at the time they were attacked, but I am overall reminded of a certain criminal class here in the U.S. that was never ‘doing nothing’ when “attacked” by those they were robbing, etc.
It also brings to the fore a concept that seems to continue to elude far too many: outside reactions and considerations were not and are not a factor of consideration. The war was not started with Western or other reaction in mind, other than that it was felt that the Biden Regency and others would just go along with it and not do anything of significance against it. Token reparations maybe, but that was it. Given that the Regency and the Meat Puppet seemed to be egging it on at one point, I can see how they thought that. But, that was only a fleeting thought to them and not even a serious point of consideration.
The dynamics that drove the decision to invade are almost entirely internal. They are based in culture, politics, and other areas that create the internal dynamics that are not understood and not even being considered by far too many outside of Russia. There is no path to peace without taking those dynamics, and the overwhelming support for the war and for creating a new Russkiy Mir, into consideration.
Therein lies the problem. Outside opinions and even responses do not matter to the large majority of the population of the Russian Federation. At best, such are seen as bigotry and an attack. At worst, they were not even a consideration. That holds true for the leadership as well. For all intents and purposes, the people of the Russian Federation live in a bubble, and the upper leadership lives in an even more dense and impenetrable bubble.
Stephen Green, who does some truly great coverage I do recommend reading, has two (sadly VIP) posts up, here and here, on “Putin’s Stupid and Unnecessary War.” By our standards, completely true and valid statements. The war is stupid, unnecessary, and even foolish. From a Russian societal perspective, however, it is extremely necessary and even overdue. Stephen asks a good question that I can see before it hits the paywall, about the military leadership should have known the military was not ready and should have prevented the war as a result.
Again, by our standards and culture, an obvious point. By the standards of Russian culture, however, invalid. Keep in mind the two bubbles already mentioned, as there are more. Vladimir sacked a lot of real generals a while back so that various apparatchiks, oligarchs, and wanna-be oligarchs could get in on the fun of what we would see as outright corruption. Russians today just see it as how business is done. Those that were smart cut officers in on the take, and smart officers made sure the men didn’t starve. As it was, the troops often looted items to sell on the black so they got pay, food, etc. Gundecking reports has a long and honorable tradition in Russia going back almost to the very earliest days. Yet more bubbles, and people who needed to know things didn’t. Given the lack of esteem given to the military these days, the general public and leadership really didn’t care if they starved or not, or what was happening to them. Or what would happen if they had to go to war.
It was only when war came, and some people got a cold douche of reality, that anything began to change. Part of that change was that a number of people in demographics and ethnicity that meant they would be called up to fight decided to beat feet. Quite a few citizens of the Russian Federation, and not just the government, consider them traitors to be dealt with later and who should never ever think of returning to the Rodina. Understand, your average citizen of the Russian Federation has no problem with people dying for the war and the cause of Russkiy Mir — so long as it’s not them. Marginalized groups or ethnicities? Who cares, it will improve the gene pool.
Nuclear war? Go for it. Our mighty Russian military will protect us while devastating our enemies. We have far more bombs and missiles than they do. We have far greater, more powerful, and more accurate defenses against missiles and other attacks.
That their nuclear and nuclear defense forces might be in a shape similar to their other weapons and stockpiles has penetrated few if any bubbles as far as I can tell. How many will work (on either side)? Who knows, and I’d really rather not find out. That said, I’m in the camp of 20 percent, i.e. an 80 percent failure rate. In light of this, I also highly recommend reading this from Sgt. Mom. Our own military is in many ways in no better shape. We are not capable of fighting a one front war for more than a few days (if that), much less a two-front war as we are supposed to be able to do.
Which leads us, finally, to the growing “peace at any price crowd.” I’m seeing it a lot on social media these days, and from some surprising quarters. As I noted in posts before, putting in place a cease fire or a forced peace as things stand will only guarantee a far worse war with far worse consequences later. Even one that gives Ukraine the Donbas and Russia the Crimea will result in the same. See this post and this post for some of the previous discussion on outcomes.
Right now, I do not see any easy, good outcomes. Far too much of what is being discussed and pushed is not in touch with the reality of Russian culture and internal dynamics, much less that of Ukraine. Anything that does not take such into consideration will fail. Spectacularly. Creating something viable, or at least make each step suck the least, requires strong, informed, and capable leadership. Looking at the Biden Regency, Castreaux, Macaroon, Charles/Sunak, Shultz, Vladimir, etc., yeah, right.
Prepare, pray, and hope for the best. It’s about all we truly can do right now.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
I’m not going to start to speculate about what was on that spy balloon. No real way to know, and I sure as heck am not going to believe a thing the government — any part of it — says. But it is fair to ask what I would have put on it. I’m going to go with bus rather than truss for a number of reasons, including simplicity.
First up, hyperspectral and multispectral imaging systems. Visual light tells you a lot, but a good argument can be made it hides an even larger amount of information. It’s almost frightening how much detail there is in satellite visual imagery, but there is so much more data in the other frequencies you can’t see with the naked eye.
Next, SIGINT. You are going to be floating around over a country and have the chance to collect and analyze a lot of signals intelligence data. You might be surprised at what all does give off signals, from keyboards to the cell phone in your pocket. Can it be picked up by a system on a balloon? Yep, some SIGINT can even be picked up by satellite. Just ask Brezhnev and Olga, and thank you Jimmy you clown. Closer to the ground, longer baseline, and the chance to have external antennas on the bus or even among any lines running up the balloon, and you could get quite a bit.
Sidenote: most devices are far more noisy than you think. Unshielded keyboards used to give off a decent RF signal for each key. So much so that one place I worked years back, the common wisdom was that the Soviets had a remote receiver hidden in the woods nearby to pick up that and other SIGINT from testing. Interestingly enough, it wasn’t security that caused them to switch most data over to fiber optic lines from copper. If you think lightning surges on a home computer are bad, try having them affect multiple Crays and other equipment.
Now, either as a separate package or a dedicated SIGINT subpackage, I would put in a system to monitor military and civilian aircraft com traffic. You’ve got to figure that when/if detected, someone will say something and if there is competent leadership at any level (doubtful but possible) that hasn’t been bought off, someone will get sent up to take a look. Even if the traffic is encrypted, you can learn a fair bit even without cracking the code. Including even getting an idea of when and where they tumbled to you.
Just me, but as part of things I would also put some standard HD video cameras and accelerometers at locations on the bus. Along with standard instruments, it would aid in control, steering, and letting you see who is taking a look. You could determine how close they got and a bit more.
The other thing I would have onboard even if it took a fuel cell, thermocouple, or other power source beyond solar is ground penetrating radar. There are some already pushing the idea (HT Instapundit), and I seem to recall such a unit flying on an early Shuttle mission in support of archeological operations (cough). In short, if it can find a lost city buried in a jungle, it can find a heck of a lot of things military and infrastructure related.
You could also gather a lot of interesting information on surface topography using interferometry. Bus is certainly long enough for certain types. Couple of other things to try, but that’s a pretty good package. Add in your command and control systems, com systems, and you’ve got a good payload. And, yes, everything on board should have separate destruct systems. In fact, I might even set things so that if the accelerometers detect a large event, such as that caused by a missile exploding close by or even on the connection between the bus and the balloon (or just a rapid descent), that those packages detonate right then. Scatter the parts over a wide area and make it harder for anyone to figure out what was onboard and what might have been collected.
Just a thought, but it sure would be nice to have some places where one might could make an emergency descent for a balloon not too far from a military base. Just in case something went wrong and the balloon in question wasn’t detected. Bring it down after dark let’s say. I suspect a lot worse with the Fufeng Group, and kudos to this town for doing the right thing that DC couldn’t be bothered to do. Funny how the Chinese government is buying up land near major military bases…
Otherwise, nothing has really changed since Monday’s post. When it comes to intelligence gathering, balloons are cheap, reliable, and expendable. Could they be used for other things? Sure, but I’ve not seen good cases made for some of the more interesting speculation out there. One presumes that NORAD might actually try to do something (maybe) about detecting and intercepting now, which would limit utility all around. Then again, given our “elite” political and military leadership…
One final thought. If I were going to be doing this, I would be using as much non-metallic materials as possible. There are a number of fabrics that would work for the balloon that would generate little radar signature. In place of a metallic truss system, use carbon fiber or other advanced materials. Even with the solar panels, you can still play games with radar cross section. Make the com system as tight beam as possible so few to no general broadcasts (laser to satellite anyone?), and you can come close to making it a hole in the sky. I wonder, I wonder, and I wish I could trust anything out of the government.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
