Category: Current Events

A Return To MADness

Growing up in the 1960s and 70s meant growing up under the threat of a mushroom cloud. The Cold War was indeed a frigid and real thing, for all that it came close to going hot far too many times. Nuclear war, and surviving same, was something I studied and I think I read Alas Babylon for the first time before I was twelve. A high school science fair project was designing an underground shelter that could hold out for five years in the event of a nuclear war. Yeah, I was a little different. Okay, quit laughing, a lot different.

What the kids today call OSINT, or Open Source Intelligence, we called Soviet Watching while the media referred to the people who did it as Kremlinologists. Some worked for the government, many of us did not. I started getting into Soviet Watching in the late 70s, and after a run-in with the KGB in 82/83, got serious about it. Serious enough that my Master’s thesis was apparently the world’s first OSINT directory, The Soviet Watchers. Ended up doing some interesting things with interesting people. Funny story on that here.

While I had loathed communism since third grade because the father of a female classmate was a political prisoner in Cuba, it is fair to say I was far more “liberal” than I am today. I did not like the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), but had to reluctantly admit it had helped keep the peace. I studied, learned what I could, and prayed that one day we would get out from under that MADness.

Then came Reagan, who because of the media coverage terrified me at first on nuclear issues. Some of those interesting things I did caused me to change my opinion of Boss. Despite a close call or two, he was responsible for two things I never thought I would see in my lifetime: the fall of the Berlin wall and an end of the major MADness. Nothing can erase nuclear weapons, and a bit of the MADness remains as a result, but the threat of sudden full-scale nuclear war was pretty much off the table, at least in regards Russia. I’ve been told that Boss regarded it as one of the single best things he accomplished.

For me, there was a huge feeling of relief. No more EWO, gold teams, hot pad alerts, and all the rest. The problem was, there were still bad guys out there, and I’ve long pushed for significant upgrades and improvements in our nuclear arsenal. While the spectre of WWIII no longer loomed, we needed to be able to counter other threats with a flexible range of options.

While we have cruise missiles and related delights, we are still using Minuteman III missiles as the land-based portion of the triad. Yes, they have been upgraded, but there are limits to what you can do. We really needed to move up back in Reagan’s day, but every effort then and pretty much since has been fought tooth and nail. To this day, I wonder how much some politicians and activists were paid by the Soviet Union, and later Russia and others (cough, China, cough).

Allegedly, we will have the new LGM-35A Sentinel showing up this year and replacing the Minutman III by 2029. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Meantime, we have rogue states like Iran stepping up to the nuclear stage, and in China we have a Soviet-level nuclear threat. In fact, in many respects, it is a larger threat in my opinion.

On top of that, we have Vladimir who went where those who have sense feared to tread by making nuclear threats. There are two things at work here. First, the nuclear threat is all he had left after the conventional military was gutted by corruption. I think the nuclear force has been gutted as well, as I discussed yesterday. Second, the demented meat puppet in the White House apparently told Vladimir a while back that he was terrified of a nuclear war and would do about anything to avoid such. Sigh. Leroy Jenkins school of diplomacy.

My world was much less stressful and even happy when I was not having to think about flight times and megatons. OUR world was much safer before Vladimir and the Biden Regency decided to try to out-stupid each other. A pox on both their houses. Problem is, the threat has been made and must be honored. If we give in to nuclear blackmail, as I’ve pointed out a time or two before, it will lead to a far worse and far more destructive situation later.

The world has changed since the major MADness departed. Technology has advanced, and as a result we are not going to have thirty or so minutes to act, for bases on or near the coast (including DC) we are looking at five to eight minutes for a naval launch off the coast. Shades of First Strike.

Sadly, I think we need to go back to the days of hot pads and continuous airborne command posts. We need to update, harden, and disperse. We also urgently need to speed up development of anti-missile systems and bring back an updated Strategic Defense Initiative. We must not give in to nuclear blackmail, but we also need to do all we can to keep us safe and the genie bottled.

But, as I’ve also noted multiple times, the MADness worked only with sane, stable, and competent leaders. Having an insane or unstable leader involved was a terrifying prospect.

Which brings us to the floating blazing dumpster fire that is the Biden Regency; Prime Minister Castreaux pulling a number of interesting stunts to stay in power; Macaroon in France is dealing with protests and riots (mysteriously not covered by corporate media in the U.S.); Xi scrambling to maintain his hold on power; and Vladimir dealing with a war he can’t win and a “friend” who looks to be preparing to try to dethrone him. Add to it GOFOs who couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse, and then there’s the intelligence community… We. Are. So. Fucked.

Smart money would be on updating and improving. In fact, if someone wanted some more detailed suggestions I might even be able to give you something in a day or so. It’s not going to happen, but it’s nice to indulge in fantasy every now and then.

Meantime, I’m going to echo Sarah and say don’t despair. Prepare as best you can, keep your things where you can find them in the dark, and hope for the best. Somehow, we will get by.

UPDATE: Been pondering a bit, and I would add one thing to my recommendation: hold off on regulating space, and let’s get on out there. Elon Musk is right when he says we need to be a multi-planet species. Earth is the cradle of humanity, it’s past time we leave the cradle. Orbital is already doable, the moon can be done if not left to NASA, and Elon’s working on Mars. Be nice to get into the asteroids and make parts of the Island Worlds real.

Which Missile?

UPDATE BELOW

Reader Nichevo asked a couple of good questions the other day, and today I’m going to try to answer the second one. Why does the change in from the SARMAT (aka SATAN II) to the YARS matter? This also will allow some expansion on my twenty percent references.

Let’s start by stating the obvious: nuclear weapons, particularly modern “safe” nuclear weapons, are extremely complex systems. Aside from various critters we’ve considered for use in weapons delivery, and we have looked at a surprising array of those, modern delivery systems are extremely complex systems. Most delivery systems today are multi-stage in that one system launches yet another system. Missiles launch independent re-entry vehicles. Aircraft launch cruise missiles at targets. Submarines launch missiles which may or may not have more than one independent re-entry vehicles. I am not trying to be obnoxious here, there really is a reason for getting this basic, please be patient.

There are two basic types of missile/rocket in use today: those that use solid rocket motors or liquid-fueled engines. Solid-fuel motors are pretty much like a bottle rocket. You light it, the fuel burns, and it burns until gone. Liquid-fueled engines can be cut on and off multiple times. Yes, for the pedantic, there are indeed some solid engines out there, and some motors that can be cut off at need. Yes, I’m sure you can create hybrid systems, and for a number of reasons that’s all I’m going to say about solid engines and hybrids. ICBMs tend to go tried and true for rather obvious reasons (that clearly aren’t obvious to some) and use either solid motors or liquid engines.

Third obvious point: modern delivery systems at all levels are far more accurate than their predecessors. When you look at Circular Error Probability (CEP) we’ve gone from hitting miles away from the target to hitting inches from the target. And that’s even with many modern delivery systems being able to maneuver in an effort to avoid defensive fire. The more modern the missile or delivery vehicle, the more accurate it is likely to be.

I’m going to drop the old proper style, and not do the all-caps thing on names. Sarmat, aka Satan II, aka the RS-28 is the latest and greatest Russian long-range ICBM allegedly in production. It can fly deceptive courses! It has longer range than any system the decadent West has produced! It carries more and larger warheads, and can carry a mix of standard and hypersonic delivery vehicles! It slices! It dices! The West has nothing that can stand up to it!! Sorry, think I just channeled Vladimir doing his rendition of Goodgulf Greyteeth’s rant on hocus pocus in Bored of the Rings.

It is also several years behind schedule, as it was expected to fully replace the remaining Satan-I, aka the R-36, aka the SS-18 two to three years ago if I’m remembering correctly (stupid lightning). Which suggests development or production problems, if not both. Sarmat is a liquid-fueled system that appears to have a rather complex launch system, as you can see here in this video. Note the “successful” test shown comes after the date previously announced by Russia for it to be operational. More on this in a moment.

The Yars system, a solid-fuel system, was introduced around 2010, and is an upgrade of the older Topol-M system. It is limited to three warheads as opposed to the 10-12 warheads (yeah, there are some arguments/debates/mixes) possible with a Sarmat. Note older, and solid-fuel.

One of those obvious reasons for tried and true is that with solids, there is no lost time loading fuel or doing anything else. Turn the key, press the button, they are reliable. Provided you’ve stored them correctly and replaced segments as they hit end of service life. Otherwise, you get cracks and other delights, and you always have the chance of voids in the fuel from production issues. In which case, that motor segment is going to get cranky. If it gets cranky anywhere at or near ground level, trust me you will feel it ten to twenty miles away.

So, why go with an older, likely less accurate, and less capable system? Look at what’s gone on at the ISS recently. Something caused a Soyuz capsule to lose it’s coolant, rather spectacularly. It may have been a micrometeorite. Some observers have noted other issues, and there has been discussion of shoddy workmanship (Soviet-era level) and possible sabotage with the Russian vehicles. Bad workmanship or sabotage of liquid-fuel rocket systems.

There are a lot of people, including some who should know better, that have maintained loudly that the Russians would never have skimped on their nuclear systems, or extended the corruption that took over the military to it. Really? In what flippin universe?

Hypothetical question for you. If there was indeed a failed launch attempt during the Biden Regency visit to Ukraine, what do you want to bet it was a Sarmat? After all, if you are going to do a demo and make a point a la Khrushchev at the UN, why would you not use your latest and greatest?

To be fair, the Soviet Union had a history of shoddy workmanship. Identical spacecraft where parts couldn’t be exchanged between them. Soviet rockets used so many engines because they expected to lose up to a third of them on any given launch. If you are curious, I think Jim Oberg has talked about it a few times, possibly in his book Red Star In Orbit and various magazine articles. Others have as well. While things were reportedly improving in the Russian Federation, we may be seeing a return to the Soviet era ‘they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work’ mindset.

We may also be seeing a different form of defiance. Sabotage by disgruntled workers would not be a new thing for Russia. Keep in mind that despite all the attempts to smash it, there is an anti-war effort and it appears to be growing. I’ve been hearing a lot of reports of sabotage across Russia, but have also been taking those with a grain of salt. I’m at a point where I’m giving the idea credence.

Which takes us back to my somewhat pedantic start to this article. My search-fu is off today as I can’t find the link, but a while back Glenn Reynolds was — I think — the first to openly comment on the twenty percent concept. At the height of the Cold War, the Brass was pushing the concept of 100 percent EWO (Emergency War Orders) ready. If the brass asked ‘Are you EWO ready?’ the answer better be ‘Sir, yes Sir! I am EWO ready Sir!’ Anyone with a brain knew that this was impossible, but it ensured that we could make the 80 percent threshold. That is, with all those complex systems, 80 percent of them would work. I suspect that 90 percent really was the goal, but…

Anyway, if the codes went out, at least 80 percent of the bombers would take off, 80 percent of the missiles would launch, 80 percent of the bombs would explode, etc.

Glenn was the first to say, in effect, that we would be lucky if twenty percent worked. The old equation has been stood on its head. I hope and pray we never find out, but I’m hitting a point where I think that if 10 percent worked I would be surprised. Complex systems require maintenance, testing, and upgrades. What’s the first thing that gets cut when Gen. Cyrus wants to have another struggle session on white rage during one of the lowest budgets in decades? Or, your newly minted “officer” who is really a civilian there to loot so he can maybe become a true oligarch, looks for easy money? Old story, on pretty much every side out there. Sigh.

That Russia is having to drop it’s nuclear threat to an older and more limited system speaks volumes. It says a lot about production, and the hints of sabotage are getting louder. It is also the strongest indicator yet that Russian nuclear forces have been, and possibly still are, getting gutted by corruption just like the rest of the military. Like I say, there is a lot of RUMINT going around, but there are enough indicators for me to feel confident on this.

So much so I am dropping my 40/60 60/40 level. I think we have less than a ten percent chance of any nuclear usage, but will drop the likelihood to 10 percent. The only reason I’m going that high is that stupidity is still a factor. MAD depended on stable and competent leadership. Right now, we have the Biden Regency, which is the Leroy Jenkins of competent action; Vladimir with health and other issues, including an associate who is looking to unseat him; Xi has more problems than many realizes; and, well, you get the idea.

The percentage really doesn’t matter in some respects. We have nuclear weapons and war being threatened as it is the last illusion of power Russia has to wave at the world. That, and Biden told Vladimir how scared he was of nuclear war and apparently that he would do anything to avoid it. What do we do about it? I’m going to try to write about that tomorrow.

For anyone just dropping by, this page has a lot of links to previous work, and this page is dedicated to nuclear articles. Feel free to take your time, browse around, heck, if you’ve got an adult beverage or a good cigar, go for it.

UPDATE: To answer/agree with several comments, disbanding SAC was a huge mistake. In fact, it was a clusterfuck of such a magnitude that I suspect it was felt in other dimensions. Those responsible deserve every bit of contempt and disdain that those competent in life can spare. I’m not sure we have the time and ability to recover from their gross incompetence.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Yet Another Intelligence Disaster

UPDATES BELOW

Asking for a friend: Is it too early to start drinking heavily? No, not taking up the VodkaPundit school of journalism (which is far superior to corporate journalism). Instead, I’m looking at the Biden Regency and the unmitigated disaster that is U.S. Intelligence Operations. Before I get fully into rant mode, allow me to recommend this post from Nina Bookout at Victory Girls and this post from David Strom at HotAir. Also, Nina has some good words about the Pentagon’s Baghdad Bob who seems a better fit for Russia or China than in a Republic.

Okay, to be fair, U.S. intelligence operations have been a disaster for a while now. Frankly, we never have been that good at it. Yes, we’ve had a few individuals over the years who were outstanding at the job, going back to the Civil War. Organized and large scale intelligence operations not so much. I don’t know if it’s the ghost of Stimson and the curse of the Black Chamber or something else. The OSS was a good wartime operation, but when it came time to start the metamorphasis to what eventually became the CIA, well, let’s say there have been ups and downs.

Personally, I view the current FUBAR as starting under Carter, who should have been awarded the Order of Stimson for his incompetence with intelligence, intelligence operations, and (much needed) intelligence reforms. His cavalier revelation of our ability to monitor car phones in Moscow blew that source and the much needed intelligence it provided right out the airlock.

Which brings us to the current fuckup. While I wonder if it was more than one person, someone rather clearly went shopping in a SCIF and despite all preventative measures walked out with documents that were never intended to leave the SCIF. Unlike television, getting into and out of a SCIF can be and should be a major PITA. Because if not you get the current situation. Like David, I suspect they know or have a good idea of the person or persons involved as the access list for documents like this is rather small.

Okay, bad enough that information has gotten out. That information is not going to make things easy for us or our allies, and is a boon to our enemies. It’s an even bigger boon as the information reveals sources and methods. The documents don’t have to say ‘Joe Blow in Department X says’ to reveal sources and methods. In some cases, again, the information being discussed has a limited pool of people with access. In others, it may be a dawning realization that the CIA and the Peanut are listening to more than your glowing description of Olga the masseuse.

Frankly, if I were a confidential source within either allied or enemy camps, I would see this as a lodestone moment, grab my spooker, and take a long unplanned vacation under another identity. As for the methods compromised, sigh, not much can be done and that is an area of constant cat and mouse. Short- to mid-term it is devastating, but new methods will eventually be found.

However, the release of this information is earth shaking. Catastrophic even. Coming on top of such things as the Chinese balloons, the loss of most HUMINT from China, and other delights, the damage to our ability to gather intel can’t be overstated. We already weren’t doing a good job of gathering and analyzing (see Afghanistan for many examples of same).

This puts our intelligence assets, military, and more in danger. It is going to strain and possibly rupture relationships, organizational and governmental. Intelligence sharing? Who’s going to risk anything truly sensitive now? Catastrophic is a mild term for the damage done, and if it was done to win a geek argument among gamers, the death penalty should be on the table. No, not joking. If I had handled classified information as far too many in the Regency appear to be doing, I would be under Leavenworth until my demise.

No, it’s not too early to start drinking. I just suspect there is not enough bourbon and rye in Kentucky to take the edge off dealing with the blazing floating dumpster fire that is the Biden Regency and American intelligence.

Sorry Nichevo, will try to get to your second question tomorrow.

UPDATE: Probably not ours, but headdesk headdesk headdesk

UPDATE II: An excellent read that asks some very good questions is found here. Very much agree with the conclusion. The arrest and details don’t add up, and frankly there’s a stench wafting from this.

UPDATE III: The situation with the leaker stinks to high heaven. The story and data as presented do NOT add up. This story expands on that, and the points are worth considering. Glenn Greenwald also makes some good points here. BTW, am I the only person having some cognitive dissonance with GG becoming a voice of reason? Lots of question, and I doubt we are going to get the answers. The rot runs deep.

UPDATE IV: A different take from a former member of the intelligence community. For me, still not adding up and the smell continues to grow.

UPDATE V: Let me be clear: Even if we do find out for sure later that this guy’s code name was “Patsy,” he deserves to be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. He SHOULD be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law because of the damage done to sources and methods alone. Should Vindman have been prosecuted as well? IMO, YES. In this two-tier system, the latter is not going to happen. Would that it could as both have done tremendous damage to the Republic IMO.

Russia: Some Players

In a comment to a previous post, Nichevo asks some reasonable questions. So, I’m going to try to answer them, starting with a bit of a who’s who in Russian politics. I’m not going to list all the players who potentially could take over from Vladmir, but more on those that I think have an eye on greater power. Also, keep in mind that there is not much left of open opposition to Vladimir, as several of the remaining opposition politicians have had to flee Russia to save their lives. They can’t return home, probably ever, given that.

Let’s start with the darling of the Western left, Alexei Navalny, who in many respects is both the last significant opposition figure left alive and someone who philosophically has at least some degree of being pro-Western rather than a full member of the Slavophile group. He is Russian/Ukrainian and grew up spending summers in Ukraine with his grandmother. For all that he is anti-corruption and an advocate for more honest elections, he is also a Russian (ultra) nationalist and appears to be a staunch supporter of Russkiy Mir. He had urged courting Ukraine to rejoin Russia rather than invading. He also lets his group take point on controversial issues, such as gay marriage, without officially committing to it. For all that the various charges against him, and for which he is currently in prison, are trumped up, there are questions about how far he truly wants to push anti-corruption reforms. Our so-called elites look at the surface and see an anti-Putin which makes him a de facto ally. Others who are cynical like me see someone who may be the enemy of my enemy, but realizes that such does not automatically make them our friend. Navalny is not going to open Russia, institute democracy, and end war if he takes over. The best I see is some reform; and, I also think his nationalism and opposition to immigration will prove to be salt in the mouths of Western liberals expecting sugar.

There is one more opposition politician, though I’m not sure he has a chance in the great game at this time. That is Vladimir Kara-Murza, who is currently in prison for opposing the war (among other things), and was poisoned twice. He was the protege of Boris Nemtsov, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia who was assassinated in 2015. He is also connected to oligarch-in-exile Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky (aka MBK). All of which give him some “reach” in Russia and if he survives prison he could continue to rise. Right now, I don’t see him having the name recognition or the operational structures that Navalny has in place even with MBK restarting Open Russia in exile. Pity, as in some ways I see him and MBK as the better choice.

On the pro-Vladimir (sorta) side, the name in the lights these days is that of Yevgeny Prigozhin, oligarch and best known for his ownership stake in the Wagner Group. A former convict, he is a leading example of how prison mores have become a chic thing for Russian leadership. He has called for Shoigu’s son to be raped (and there may be some claim that he has called for all in prison for opposing Vladimir to be raped as well), as those who are raped become social omegas and that applies outside of prison as well. Charming fellow. As I noted before, there is a subtle dance required in Russia, where one goes for the gold but dances the dance of being discrete and only taking power because it is thrust on you. The public is aware of, and discussing surprisingly openly, his glaring ambition and that he and Vladimir appear to have had a falling out. His star is burning brightly, and the question is will it continue to do so or burn out. Or be snuffed out, as those Vladimir views as traitorous tend to die not long after.

Next up, you have Dmitry Medvedev. Short version is that in public he is more extreme that Vladimir but is also well-trained enough not to buck his master. For that reason, he “replaced” Vladimir in an election segment until Vladimir could run again, and did exactly as he was told during that time. He has a position of power, knows where bodies are buried, and is dug in like an Alabama tick in many regards. That said, I don’t see him as a lead in succession, though he is likely to be a key player in parts of it.

Sergei Shoigu would be the next logical choice. However, between the military failures in the invasion and the ongoing war between him and Prigozhin, I’m not seeing him as a top contender despite being extremely politically adept. If something happens to take Prigozhin out of the picture, he may well be the compromise candidate the various Slavophile factions could accept.

Two other names to keep in mind: Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Sobyanin. Right now, they are considered long shots, but of the two I think Sobyanin is the one on which to keep an eye. His mayorship of Moscow, Vladimir’s strong support, and other factors say he could be the dark horse in this saga.

Could someone come up who is not currently known? Stranger things, such as Vladimir and Medvedev, came out of nowhere in Russian politics before. Much is going to depend on how Vladimir is succeeded. I honestly don’t see him stepping down in 2024, but running and winning again. If he dies in office of natural causes, I expect the election to be between Medvedev, Lavrov, and Sobyanin. If Vladimir dies of non-natural causes, I think it could come down to literal fighting between Prigozhin, Shoigu, and Medvedev.

Keep in mind that Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic, could well play kingmaker. Right now, he still has (to the best of my knowledge) 1,000 troops quartered next to the Kremlin in support of Vladimir. Anyone on any side feeling frisky knows that they are there. Smart money has those with an eye to moving up establishing cordial if low-key relations with him.

As for the other name I mentioned, Aleksandr Nevzorov, he was/is an opposition leader and general pain in the ass to Vladimir. Journalist, politician, and for me a bit of a character; but, he’s a character who has survived assassination attempts and more. He is one of several politicians who had to flee Russia to save their lives because of their opposition to both Vladimir and the war. Given Russian society, they can never go home as they will be killed as they do so. Never mind the fact that he’s been found guilty of various crimes and sentenced to nine years in prison in absentia. I’ve found his videos to be interesting, both informationally and stylistically. His youtube channel is here, and this video (English captions) from Ukraine News is eerily prophetic. I hope he stays safe as I think Russia needs some of the wisdom he offers.

Hope to get to more of the questions tomorrow.

If Interested

For those who might be interested:

A partial list of Anheuser-Busch/InBev brands: Budweiser, Bud variants, Michelob, Rolling Rock, Busch, Shock Top, Natural, Johnny Appleseed, Landshark, Goose Island, Blue Point, 10 Barrel, Elysian Brewing, Golden Road, Four Peaks, Breckenridge, Devil’s Backbone, Karbach, Wicked Weed, King Cobra, and Hurricane. There are others, and minority ownership in a number of companies. Remember, knowing is half the battle. 

This graphic was posted on Twitter and checks out so far.

Russia Update

I’ve been holding off on an update as there is a lot of smoke, which usually means a fire but in this case could just be politicians and proxies blowing it out their shorts. Russia operates very differently from the U.S., something that seems to escape about ninety percent of DC. It’s that difference that is making it hard to tell exactly what is happening.

The breathless coverage of the day is the assassination of Vladlen Tatarsky, born Maxim Yuryevich Fomin. The well-known Russian milblogger was a huge supporter of the war, but also had become a bit vocal in his criticism of how it was being waged, progressing, etc. To the point it was noted and being discussed in very careful whispers around Moscow. If you think Daria Trepova is the cold-blooded mastermind of the explosion, got a bridge for sale.

The assassination is very reminiscent of Darya Dugina (see here and here). Except this time they used a Russian patsy who provides access to a dissident group as well as the chance to tar Navalny and his party. Right now, suspecting they had hoped she would die in the blast, to make a lot of the smearing easier without anyone around to rebut.

Again, it plays to Russian tropes and drama. The man who could have caused the leadership a lot of problems is now conveniently a martyr. There’s a huge message in there too.

In Russia, the culture has two elements that shape more than many seem to realize. First, there is the idea that all people are corrupt and that therefore it is good to have Kompromat on everyone. The old KGB collected such on every member, both as a means of control at need and a means of knowing what enticed them. The concept of an honest person, one who actually obeys all laws and such, is a subject of laughter and concern. Laughter at the thought there is such a person. Terror that it could be true and of the damage someone like that could do to various systems.

There is also the mythos of the reluctant leader. Naked ambition is never a pretty thing, and in Russia such has needed to be cloaked in something a bit more palatable to the public. Stalin and pretty much every other leader have never stepped up because of ambition; rather, they had leadership thrust upon them and rose to the occasion. Noble. Even if ice axes were involved in the process.

Which brings us to Yevgeny Prigozhin. He’s been discussed a time or two here (see here for one) and so far seems to be holding his own in the current political warfare even though his Wagner group hasn’t done as well. He seems to have had a falling out with Vladimir, and Wagner is looking to refocus on Africa according to some reports. Worse, the quiet whispers extend far beyond Moscow as his ambition for higher leadership have become so obvious that it is being discussed. Discussion of such among an elite group is one thing. Discussion by the larger public is not.

Complicating this is, of course, Vladimir and his health. There are reports of body doubles, escape plans to China, and more. The idea of doubles has been around almost from the start, and I would not be surprised if such were not used. Not saying use is confirmed, just I wouldn’t be surprised if they were being used. To me, it is clear that his health woes are accelerating. Just look at all the video from Xi’s visit, much less his trip to occupied territory. The limp, the gait, and more are clearly visible. Vladimir has done all he could to hide issues before, for them to be seen openly is telling.

As a post-Vladimir world draws near, the scramble for the top seat is going to heat up. In fact, if this is true, some are already well into making plans and have violated a prime law of politics: everyone bad mouth’s the boss, but don’t get caught doing so. There are rumors of other fractures, and multiple people with ambition.

With the need to pull tanks from museums for the fight, Vladimir is increasingly left with only one option for shaking at the world: nuclear. This report indicates they are going to stop warning us of tests, which petulantly childish and foolish. Day ending in Y again.

Problem with that is, you can only push so far. RUMINT has been swirling for a while about issues in Russia’s nuclear weapons systems, including command and control. Note the push to the Yars system versus SARMAT/SATAN II, which was supposed to have replace all the SATAN I missiles several years ago. Add to it reports that an attempt to do a demo launch while Biden was in Ukraine failed. There is a lot of RUMINT out there, and I think we are on the mercy of either the twenty percent or even the ten percent.

People have noticed the rhetoric and at least a few appear to have looked at reality outside the bubbles that permeate Russian society and government. Such is not a help to Vladimir and his efforts to stay in control and start the building of the new Russkiy Mir. Politics and business are a blood sport in Russia, and I would expect to start seeing more blood in the days ahead.

Quick Aside: One reason for going for the older tanks is that they are easier to refurbish than the new. Most newer military vehicles, and not just Russian designs, require a lot of maintenance and if they’ve been in depot, even in the best of storage, they are difficult to bring back into operation. The longer they are stored, and the worse the conditions, I won’t use the word impossible but it does get very interesting. It’s something John Ringo gets into in his Black Tide Rising series.

On a more cynical note, I’m actually working on a contrarian argument in regards nuclear war. Picture Vladimir as Richard Dreyfuss’s character Alexander Dunning in the film RED, going “I’m the bad guy!” Yes, he is, and he want’s to hurt the West, not help us. Therefore, there is no way he is going to nuke DC, NYC, SF, LA, and other major cities. Right now, the politicians and bureaucrats there are doing more damage to the Republic that is the United States than Vladimir could with nukes. So, he is just going to continue to shake his head at the debauchery, and raise a toast to the damage being done.

On a more serious note, they are stepping up the nuclear rhetoric because it’s all they have right now. This was planned for three days. Funny how all the political plans for a short victorious war have rarely worked out throughout history.

There is unrest growing in Russia, which is why you are seeing stories like this, like this, like this, and like this. For all the propaganda and bluster, the word is getting out that all is NOT well. Which is making a lot of people nervous. Hence, the assassination of Vladlen Tatarsky who was a threat to share a lot of accurate information. Or to get people asking for that information.

I’m sure there will be more soon.

Some Thoughts On Twitter

No, I’m not joining the anti-Elon club, or going to moan and flounce over whatever allegedly outrageous thing he’s done this time. In fact, I will start by saying that Twitter is in many ways more fun than it has ever been from the start.

The first Twitter account I had was at the start, and once Twitter became a sewer I left. I rejoined around the last election, and between the manipulation and the still rampant CSE and other sewer elements, I left again. I rejoined when Elon started having an interest in it, and have laughed my fluffy fuzzy rump off at all that has gone on since he bought the non-profit. Unless he does turn things around, I’m going to say he got fleeced. I’m hoping he does turn it around, but some major unforced errors this week have me concerned.

Twitter has an amazing amount of untapped potential. Elon has talked about his desire to make it a true free speech platform, and a platform for citizen journalism. The problem is, either through sheer incompetence by staff, or some termites from the old regimes still being in the woodwork (embrace the healing power of and?), any trust or credibility in Twitter by independent journalists and non-corporate journalistic organizations took a heavy hit.

In short, a user posted an “interesting” graphic about the upcoming “Trans Day Of Vengeance” which also included calls for violence. This was done the afternoon/evening of the day Christian children and teachers were slaughtered by a trans person. Needless to say, the account, the graphic, and the calls for violence were quickly covered by journalists, lawmakers, and others. In a flashback to the old regime, Twitter censored and shut down the accounts of the journalists, lawmakers, and others.

The account that posted the graphic never got taken down or censored as far as I know. If it did, it’s news to me. The accounts that were shut down had to delete the offending posts that shared the graphic (mentioned?), not sure if they had to admit guilt and to be paraded through the public square like in the old days, but were warned of strikes and worse if they continued to offend. Twitter later said no strikes were issued, but right now no one truly trusts them given all the issues in the past. Twitter has massively squandered any trust and goodwill that was being built. Major unforced error.

It also demonstrated a lack of knowledge about real journalism. The graphic has to be shared as it is evidence. It is what allows people to view, consider, and then make up their own mind about it and the messages attached to it. It is even potential evidence in court. In short, it is important and to just yank it down along with all the stories covering and analyzing the situation was totalitarian censorship at its finest as well as complete ignorance of journalistic purpose.

I’m hearing that a number of independent journalists and organizations are putting plans to make more use of Twitter on hold. Some are being vocal about it, and others just read the posts from Twitter, and smile and nod nicely and politely without saying a word.

I was looking at doing some things to try to make better use of Twitter, expand my reach, and even make use of some paid features. That’s going on hiatus, because this time Twitter didn’t put a finger on the scales, they sat on it and screwed over most of the real journalists who use their service in the process.

Now, add to that a campaign against tweets that were deemed mean or insensitive to the cowards of Uvalde, which went on at the same time. Trust level, fucked.

Now, for me, there are two other issues.

First, Elon wants Twitter to be a happy, positive place where no one says mean or nasty things. If you say something someone could possibly consider mean, angry, etc., then you will get throttled. The thing is, free speech is quite often rough, vulgar, and uncouth by the standards of those who live in the clouds.

Twitter still seems to have a problem with not recognizing a real threat (‘I am going to kill you and your family’) particularly when it comes from a progressive or other protected class to a less protected class (see the JK Rowling saga for one example). If you suggest that someone should pleasure themselves with a rusty chain saw, sideways, well, they are going to be all over your ass in a nanosecond, particularly if you are not a member of a protected class. And even faster if the person to whom you make the suggestion is a member of the protected classes. One is a clear threat, the other hyperbole. Twitter still seems to be willfully and deliberately ignoring one and conflating the other.

Attempts to force “niceness” have never worked, and have historically led to massive censorship. Not the first time or place it’s been tried. It also ignores the fact that some ideas are so abhorrent or idiotic, that pure mockery (which is rarely polite) is the only response deserved. You may not like it, you may not like dark humor, you may not like mockery. Problem is, if you try to force nice and censor others, guess what you become? That very tyrant you claim to hate. You go right back to being the Twitter of yesterday.

Second, for myself and others with brain injury, traumatic brain injury, and some related conditions, many of the “improvements and upgrades” to Twitter, Tweetdeck, etc. suck. Big fat hairy warty ones even. I’ve been hearing that a number of others are not happy with the so-called improvements, but for people like me using the system has become a figurative and even literal pain.

Now, I have to say that after being hit by lightning I’m incredibly blessed as things could be a lot worse. My short term memory is fucked, though they tell me that the missing long-term memories are still there but the brain doesn’t know where the files are right now. When my brain finished healing in a few years, that may change. Who knows, but there are no guarantees.

Since being hit, I have learned about “distractions,” “attention success,” “attention lapses,” “CES,” and other joys. There are fancy and nice ways to describe what is going on, but a good analogy is that almost anything can cause my brain to go “SQUIRREL!!” and send my train of thought not only off the rails but out into the swamps. It’s why I have to live my life off flippin lists to get anything done. It’s why a story that used to take me thirty minutes to write can now take three flippin hours or more.

I loved Tweetdeck as it allowed me to arrange information into lists and columns that allowed me to reduce distractions and get the most out of my time on Twitter. New tweets? A simple graphic on the side. Want to get to the top and see the latest? You tapped home and away you went. New message? Again, simple graphic on the side.

Now? Pop-ups you can’t make go away. A useless message bar on the bottom that blocks viewing information when I already have a column for messages. Additions to my columns with suggestions, advice, and other crap I used Tweetdeck to avoid. Seems like every flippin thing is now a mouse-over and pop-up. Scroll too hard to get back to the home column, and you go backwards to a blank web page (that one may be one of the bugs being passed off by Brave as a feature, just like no longer being able to turn off mouse overs, to be fair to Twitter).

I’ve gone from a low/no-distraction environment to almost total distractions. Twitter is even worse IMO. So, I either have to spend a massive amount of time to deal with all the cognitive distractions (and the frustrations of same), or I can just spend less time on Twitter. Guess which way I’m going?

Yes, some of us did reach out and try to get this addressed. I will be polite and nice and just say we were ignored.

I really would like to see Elon get rid of the remaining termites and turn Twitter into a true bastion of free speech. Heck, I would like to see him develop it into the communications, payment, and development powerhouse it could be. That said, I’ve also lived through the destruction of the blogosphere by the walled gardens of social media that promised an easy way to put everything into one easy to manage basket.

I’m not going to put my eggs into one basket, no matter what. But, I’m also not going to put any eggs into a basket without a bottom, and right now that is Twitter. There is no trust and there are no guarantees that Twitter won’t pull the rug out from under you on a tweet, much less something larger. There are still far too many blocked accounts (Stacy McCain, cough, cough), and with more joining them because of capricious and indifferent actions by Twitter, you are eroding trust not building it. When you add in making it harder for people like me to use, there’s even less incentive to be involved.

This week was a return to old Twitter, and it will take a hell of a lot of work to build shattered trust. It can be done, and I hope it is, but I’m not going to continue to invest significant time, much less move to adopt any paid services, for now.

Catching Up

Yes, I’ve been off routine. Yes, I’ve been off posting. Things have been interesting. Time to catch up a bit.

Monday was another doctor day, this time with my GP. The first time I went to see him a few years ago, we got to joking around and as a result my lab results now come with a letter grade. Monday was an A-. Most of it was very good, but my triglycerides spiked. Hopefully, it boils down to my cheating a bit on keto and getting told to stop that.

Afterwards, decided to stop by the cigar store to check up on a few people, including the person with cancer for whom I asked for prayers. Did get to meet up with them and others, and while it’s rough the cancer is being fought. Hard. Got to see another who’s been having some health issues as well, along with just some of the regulars. Good to catch up. My budget does not miss smoking my cigars, but I do really miss the camaraderie. It’s not like I smoked a lot either, but good sticks tend to not be in the $3.99 bin… 🙂

Upon attempting to leave, the car wouldn’t start. No joy on jump with the jump pack from the battery store in the shopping center. No joy on new battery I bought at said store. Finally got it jumped in the most expensive jump I’ve ever had from the tow truck that was going to haul it to the mechanic for me. Kept it going, got to a different mechanic who was recommended, and he confirmed the alternator is dead/dying and I did make it home by keeping the RPMs up above 2000 for as much of the tip as possible as that got a little juice to the battery.

Taking it to the new mechanic tomorrow to get the new alternator installed. Just finished double-checking my fluid levels and getting the new battery out so I can charge it overnight. With that, and keeping the RPMs up at or above 2000 as much as possible, hope to make it.

On top of all those joys was the horrific school shooting. I’m beyond disgusted with corporate media and others trying to make the murderer the “real” victim in all this. Also with all those doing the “Christian children slaughtered, Trans community hardest hit” bullshit. And, no, I will not say the name. No attention, no publicity, no nuthin for that miserable despicable creature. I’m still looking for confirmation that the nine-year-old girl was shot because she was trying to pull the fire alarm to summon help. No greater love. If true, shades, a warrior walks among you.

I am watching things in Russia and elsewhere. On the fighting front, the battle with the beaver has been some much needed comic relief. Great play on the Texas Ranger motto: One trenchline, One beaver. Yes, a beaver has occupied a section of trench on the front, and so far is holding it against all comers. Go Beaver!

The storage unit insurance company also contacted me. The limit on the coverage means I’m getting less than a third the value, but it will be enough (I hope) to cover the car repairs. Need the car for just a bit longer, say a year or so. That, or I need to win the lottery so I can get a truck. For the record: I would rather have Flo back than the money, but so far no joy. I’ve called metal recyclers and others, and am trying to figure out where else I should look or call.

There’s more, but those are the major points. Hope to get back to regular posting here soon.

Be alert. Be prepared. Keep the essentials where you can find them in the dark at need.

Hate To Do This

For a number of years, I have volunteered time, expertise, and encouragement to individuals and groups involved with first time buyers of firearms. It has often been fun, and it is nice to help people get into responsible firearms ownership. The fact is, I think the more hard-targets out there, the better — particularly in minority communities.

As a part of that, I have offered my time to Pink Pistols/Operation Blazing Sword a time or two. I like and even admire what Erin Palette is doing there/trying to do. It is something that is needed. Let me be very clear: Erin and her organization are focused on defensive and lawful use.

Unfortunately, I now have concerns that any number of programs focused on defensive and responsible firearms ownership and use could be being exploited by those gaming the system to develop an offensive capability. As a result, I am stepping back from all organizations until matters are resolved and I can be more confident that efforts to game the system are being appropriately dealt with.

With everything that is going on, and the Trans Day of Vengeance coming up, I just want to say: Be Careful Out There. Be prepared, keep your head on a swivel, and your things where you can find them in the dark.