Current Events – Page 26 – The Laughing Wolf

Iran, Russia, Oh My

What an interesting start to the week. Sleet and snow, along with falling temps, are making the roads around here fun. Thinking I may put off the bus trip to the stores until tomorrow.

Over the weekend, Iran was apparently attacked. Some of the initial reports, which come from usually reliable sources, indicated multiple targets. There were unconfirmed reports of fighters launching and other delights all around the country. Right now, there is still a dearth of solid data and I find it interesting that even though the Iranian government admitted to multiple attacks Saturday night, they and some interesting segments of the corporate media are now focusing on one particular attack. Which according to them, failed.

If you believe the official take of the Iranian government on anything, please do let me know as I have a bridge for sale that you would find the perfect investment opportunity. That out of the way, there is reason to believe that around five sites were attacked. All are military targets. Beyond that, insufficient data. And, no, I don’t think the fire at the refinery was part of this.

I also strongly suspect that a lot of the bangs, booms, aircraft launches, and other things reported elsewhere were the result of the Iranians. They do seem to have quite the habit of doing such locally and nationally, and when you fire at targets without identifying them (or verifying they are even real), you get UIA 752 and/or a lot of bangs, booms, and other delights. After all, if you fire an arrow into the air, you know it’s coming back down to Earth somewhere.

As for who did it, there is a LOT of speculation. Iran, Russia, and Saudi corporate media have all accused the U.S. of doing it. We, of course, deny any involvement. Others have pointed at Israel, which is believed to have conducted a number of highly successful (and needed IMO) covert operations in Iran. Israel has never, of course, confirmed such operations. The Ukrainian government appeared to imply they did it in a social media post, which is interesting given that I had them as my WAG. They do have quite a vested interest in shutting down the flow of drones, missiles, and such to Russia.

WAG: Ukraine. Median: Israel. Mode: take your pick. You have a public that has been in revolt for months and would love to see the Mad Mullahs gone. You have a number of other countries and groups that also would like to see them gone. I found the initial reports that at least some drones had been launched from Azerbaijan to be most interesting given the attack on the Azerbaijan embassy in Tehran last Friday. There were reports the embassy evacuated Saturday night in the wake of the attack.

I would not be surprised if this turned out to be some sort of joint effort by two or three different entities. While Israel clearly has the capabilities needed for such an operation on its own, a good case can be made for two or more entities teaming up to combine resources and get them into Iran and/or Azerbaijan to launch.

Hopefully some better data will be coming out soon. Meantime, let’s take a quick look at Russia.

Military situation in terms of the war: Winter. Has momentum shifted one way or another? Winter. Who’s winning right now? Winter.

I don’t think Russia can win. I think Ukraine can still lose. A lot is going to depend on who gets it into one sock in terms of logistics, training, and innovation this winter. If you want good and continuing coverage of the war, check out Stephen Green at Instapundit and Vodka Pundit. If you want a more complete resource guide, let me know and I’ll see about updating the one I did a while back.

Internal Russian politics remains interesting. Keep in mind that both business and politics are blood sports in Russia, even where they don’t overlap. Is Vladimir having GRU 29155 suicide all those businessmen, oligarchs, and others around the world? No. If you are in business in Russia, you know and/or work with some not-nice people. You pay for the company you keep.

Rumors about Vladimir, his health, and his control abound. Health wise, about the only thing I haven’t heard is that he’s pregnant with Elvis’s love child. To be honest, if I were him, I’d start that rumor myself just because. Do I think he has a medical issue? Yes. What is a good question, and one to which I don’t have a reliable answer.

The biggest change is that people seem to be fairly openly jockeying for post-Vladimir position. There is always a normal amount of that going on at any time (and in any government to be honest), but this is fairly blatant. I’m increasingly thinking that the placement of the Pantsir systems on rooftops in Moscow is related to the internal struggles.

Moscow has extensive air and missile defenses. Even the Kremlin is rumored to have air defense. Yet, two Pantsir are placed where they can provide overlapping close-defense of the Kremlin. Why?

Ukraine has nothing on the books that can reach Moscow. Could they create a one-off or even several that could hit Moscow and the Kremlin? Yes. Outside of propaganda, why would they do it? I mean there is a serious risk that such a move could backfire on multiple levels. Keep in mind that the Kremlin is not a building. It is in fact several buildings and bunkers inside a brick fortress that houses them and rather extensive grounds. Pretty place, enjoyed the museum. To do significant damage would take large payloads and precision hits.

Unless.

What if your target wasn’t a building? What if it was an individual. One who regularly travels into the Kremlin via the vehicle gate at the intersection of Serafimo and Manezh. Vehicles used are, of course, armored. That top armor, however, really wasn’t designed with with even quad-copter drones and modified grenades in mind, much less modern anti-tank loitering weapons.

Would taking out Vladimir or other leader/leaders substantially change the war for Ukraine? No. In fact, pretty much all the likely succession candidates are more hardline than Vladimir. All have committed in public to continuing the war.

So, who would benefit from taking out Vladimir or another party who is regularly at the Kremlin? Take a hard look at any or all of those jockeying for position and power right now. Take out your target, blame Ukraine, and fan the flames.

If I were Vladimir, in addition to some of the jammers/projectors being used to bring down larger drones, I’d look at hiring some skeet shooters for dealing with smaller drones and such. Perimeter detail just got even more interesting.

Finally, as for the WHO story that is freaking a lot of people out, I agree with Sarah’s take and remain concerned that Vladimir will attack all the nuclear plants to cause disaster. He’s flirted with it and tested a bit, and I still see that as more likely right now than him using his fancy briefcase. Are there circumstances where that changes? Yes. Once winter cedes the field, and major combat resumes, all bets are off. As we’ve talked before, however, we may be benefitting from the 20 percent factor. Here’s hoping we never find out for sure.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Short SITREP

Things go. Our winter storm was not as bad as feared. I liked that while it was snowing I didn’t hurt too much. Today is back to pain, and typing while wearing the wrist brace is, er, interesting. Really want to go take a walk but the weather is not cooperating.

Almost got to use some of the prep yesterday, as while I watched a limb on some type of fir tree out back snapped and fell. The way it did it was fascinating, as it broke, swung back as it started down, and fell almost at the base of the tree folded up in two or three sections. Not sure how much officially fell, but since the ground wasn’t frozen (sorta warm for this time of year actually), we didn’t get a huge accumulation. Really only about 2-3 inches most places.

Still working on trying to get the car fixed, get any response out of SSA, and other fun stuff. Sorry for the delay, but hopefully back to meatier posts soon.

Oh, in regards those air defense units in Moscow making the news: Still not sure if they are for defense from Ukrainian attacks, or are for defense in the internal political strife. Either way, the Kremlin now has overlapping additional coverage in two directions. Am picking up rumors that other steps are being taken, which is interesting given the anti-air and anti-missile defenses already in place. The rumors would seem more in place if I heard Mathias Rust had gotten another pilot’s license. Then again, the Ukrainians have gotten rather deliciously creative in terms of UAVs and the like. If such is being planned, I’m not sure it is a good idea, to be polite. Really would prefer to be moved before WWIII starts.

More soon.

Winter Take II

Well, we are being warned of another winter storm, and this time I think we may get it based on my joints lighting up like a Christmas tree. Last time, the joints and body said not so much. This time, saying the opposite. Hope the body is wrong, to be honest, but not counting on it.

Yesterday, I walked a mile or so to go to a nearby Mexican grocery to pick up some hot sauce and a special type of chicharrones that is my keto/paleo version of pop corn. Good walk, if weather was better would love to do more. I was going to walk to the Aldi, which would be several miles there and back, but turns out the landlord is going to be going later so will go with him. As much as I need the exercise, I was NOT looking forward to some of the areas on that walk.

Meantime, other than a better means of emergency heating, I’m about as set as I can be. Will pick up a few things at Aldi in addition to essentials.

Still working car issues. I have a plan, and am moving out on it as best I can. I have a backup plan of sorts. Working on a GOTH plan as I can. A lot depends on donations, funding, and related. Some depends on finding better options. What will be, will be. Just have to have faith that that which is right will be.

Really had hoped to get back to some serious writing today, but the body has different plans. I didn’t sleep well last night because of the joint and other issues. To be honest, I hurt pretty badly right now. Hate being a WLB, but even with lots of Ranger candy, it’s sorta bad.

More soon, I hope.

Thank You, Record

Wow. Yesterday set a new record for readership here at LaughingWolf. While it may have gone higher 18-20 years back, when I was a top 100/500 blog, yesterday saw better than 7,900 readers come in for this story, the second in a series on the Texas shooting. Several hundred of whom apparently read the linked stories and/or other posts. There were a number of good and interesting comments. Thank you to everyone who linked to it and drove that frenzy.

Thank you! I also want to take the time to thank my regular readers, all five of you (grin), who show up every day and make good and productive comments. Your comments often flesh out and add substantially to my posts. Thank you.

For those interested, the first story in the series is here and the third story in the series is here.

Today may be a little slow. Weather changes have me down, and I am also cooking after grabbing fresh boneless/skinless chicken breasts and fresh ground chuck on sale for $2.99/lb yesterday. Freezing one package of chuck, cooking one in a few, and the chicken has been in the oven for about three hours already at 250 degrees in a mix of roasted habanero salsa (with cilantro and key lime juice), green enchilada sauce, and lime juice. Tomorrow I make a batch of chicken enchiladas and one of beef.

More soon, and we will be getting back to preparedness/Preparedness Pays here soon. Unless the politicians do something more stupid than usual, or a major disaster happens, posting will be lite today.

Want to share a joke just for the grins of it: Headline: World’s largest meeting of prostitutes underway in Davos. Large number of sex workers in attendance as well.

If I do a philosophical post here soon, it will be on the topic of which is the oldest profession. Think I can make a case for politics being the oldest, with prostitution being the second and far more honorable profession.

The Fall Will Be Broadcast

This is the third, and last planned, bit of commentary on the shooting in Texas. The first post is here, and the follow-up is here. Many of you have commented about the video in the various posts, and it is a point that needs some discussion.

The ubiquitousness of video is a remarkable thing. On one level, it represents the strides made in video and recording technology over the years. I still remember getting trained in video recording, editing, and production in 1976 at the Boy Scout World Jamboree. The cameras were large, the editing suite large, and the quality was so-so by today’s standards. Back then, it was revolutionary.

Today, the Contour camera I bought to mount to my helmet a few years back is tiny in comparison to those early cameras, and still is huge in comparison to some of the high-res cameras you can buy on the cheap. Oh, and that huge editing suite? Everything it did and more can now be done on a laptop. The reels of video tape (and later video cassettes) are now a small chip.

The doorbell camera my landlord has may not be as high-res as some, but it is surprisingly good for the size. From wherever we are, we can check to see who or what set off the camera, and if the mail has been delivered yet.

It is more unusual these days for a house not to have something like that, or even more than one, for security purposes. Businesses have cameras inside and out for security, so that when something happens there is a record of it and a means for the police to track down the perpetrators. Add to that cameras that are in place at shopping centers, set-up by LE, and a surprising amount of your life is on video. They don’t even have to hide the cameras in fake power pole transformers and such anymore.

And it’s not just the large cities. It is widespread everywhere, from urban New York to rural Iowa. Part of the idea was to let people keep an eye on things no matter where they were, and to have a record of events if needed. Part was to have a record that could be shared with LE and prosecutors at need, to help ensure justice when and if something happened.

Many are starting to re-think things. First, in many areas of the country you have a new breed of prosecutor who is soft on crime and is far more lenient on perps than on victims. Ones who have already indicated they will go after those who fight back rather than the perp. Second, you have them and others who will abuse those video records to harass or otherwise abuse the innocent. To stalk people for reasons personal and political.

As a number of people have pointed out in the comments, what would have happened if there had been no video being shot at the restaurant? Nothing that would have caught the act, the shooter’s vehicle, or other things that would have helped LE track him down. You would have just had the witness statements about the tall/short caucasian/other thin/fat etc. etc. etc. that are witness statements. Could he still have been tracked down? Yes, but it would have been a LOT harder to do. Would that effort have been made with just a dead career violent criminal who hit the FAFO jackpot? Good question.

I may have heard a rumor about a business that suffered a mysterious glitch in their very good video system a while back. One that just happened to not catch an incident that may not have happened that could have caused a good person some trouble. In fact, I may have heard of more than one. Frankly, as things head south, I expect to hear a lot more rumors and stories like that.

Also, what incentive will there be for people to cooperate with LE and prosecutors if the perps are going to be out again in a few hours at most, and anyone who stood up to them being investigated or harassed? Worse yet, identified in the news so the perp can easily learn their name and all about them for their own actions?

I think we are going to start seeing a large lack of cooperation on the part of the public, and not just in the jurisdictions that have soft-on-crime prosecutors and/or ineffective governance at all levels. What happens there will have people in good areas questioning the desirability to cooperate with their own LE and prosecutors. Do I think it will get to the point people are disabling or hiding their video systems? I think we are already there.

As for the comment about 500-yard shots not being on video, think again. Right now, from the time I leave my front door, my travels are on video with surprisingly few gaps. There are doorbell cameras, security cameras, traffic cameras, and it wouldn’t surprise me to find out the Rodent Liberation Front has cameras set up as well. If you think that LE can’t trace back where a shot came from, and there won’t be video of traffic in that area, much less of people walking around, think again.

There are good odds that unless someone takes active steps there will be. Once you leave that bubble of active steps, well, someone may wonder why you were in that area and what you were carrying. Oh, and don’t forget that most large cities (and quite a few others) have systems for detecting and localizing the sounds of gunshots. Is it possible to avoid or spoof some or all of it? Yes. Easy? Depends.

Far more of our daily lives is on video that we realize. Between video, tracking of cell phone and social media usage, and other ways we can and are tracked, someone determined can learn a lot and even cause us lots of problems.

I don’t think we’ve hit peak video yet; but, I do think we’ve already entered the era of selective video. One where individuals, businesses, and other entities are not going to be as quick to share video with anyone, especially LE and prosecutors, as they were even last year. Given all that’s happened in about the last three years, I expect to see this trend grow. As such, I can’t blame anyone who elects for selective sharing.

Texas Follow-Up

My original analysis of the now-famous shooting of a robber out in Texas got a lot of good comments. Out of 30, there was only one Cherrystone (someone with lesser intellectual function than a Cherrystone clam and the reading comprehension of a fruit fly). There are a number of things I think we need to cover in regards this story.

First, if you are involved in a self-defense/defense of others shooting (heck, even if you just have draw a weapon), call a lawyer immediately. Get a good one. Never met the man in person, but have Guy Relford’s number programmed into my phone just in case. I also have a different lawyer in for the same thing, as a backup, in case Guy’s on vacation. If at all possible, wait to speak to the police until your lawyer is physically present. Be nice, be polite, but wait for the lawyer and only say anything after talking with the lawyer. If the lawyer gives you advice, follow it. Overall, the less you say to LE, to the media, or on social media, the better.

It sounds as if the shooter in Texas did just that. He got a lawyer, and has let the lawyer do as much of the talking with police as possible. Smart. Very smart. Net result is that I think that if he is indicted, he’s got a good chance at winning in court. Given something that was pointed out in another venue about that final shot, think he’s got a very good chance. Grand juries can be rigged to indict a ham sandwich; but, I’m wondering if they will indict for several reasons. Not only is this case a political hot potato that voters are following closely, but voters and non-voters are also getting tired of soft-on-crime prosecutors.

Which brings up a point that several of the commenters to the original post discussed, which is what does this mean for the future? One of the prime functions of the justice system is not to prevent crimes or predict them. Rather, it is to moderate public response so as to protect the public from itself. History is full of horrific punishments for what many would consider minor crimes. If you read the founding fathers, one of the things they wanted to ensure was a just system that avoided cruel and unusual punishments by the government and by the people.

They were well aware of the mob mentality, and did as much as they could to try to limit it via swift, impartial, and even-handed justice. Justice delayed is justice denied is a truism they knew well. They also had first-hand experience with a two (or more) tiered justice system and capricious sentencing. There is a reason that mob “justice” in the U.S. stands out; namely, while any such is to be condemned, we have had surprisingly little of it when compared to other countries and to history.

Which brings us to today. Swift justice? Tis a joke. Impartial? Not hardly, as we see a lot of rules for thee, not for me in courts and elsewhere. Even-handed? Eh, not so much. There are literally thousands of possible citations to prove those points, sad to say. The public has noticed, and again is not happy.

What happens now? I think there is a growing probability (not possibility) that we are going to see “justice” dispensed at the street level. When people are scared, do not feel safe anywhere, and have no faith in the system, they tend to take things into their own hands when they can. After all, if they know the person who just threatened them is going to be out in an hour or two after the prosecutor cuts a sweetheart deal with them, why take the risk?

That this will drive down crime for a while is a given. Looking at history, it also is going to cause the violence associated with crime to ramp up as well.

It is also likely to destroy our justice system as it currently exists. Prosecutors, who are often dug into their positions like a tick despite being on a ballot, are going to respond one of three ways, really only two as the third option requires unicorns and fairy godmothers.

They can look at reality, admit they were wrong, and change their ways and go back to something closer to real justice. And the fairy godmother will then wave her wand and give me a horse too.

From a historical perspective, the most likely response will be to double-down on what they are doing, and crack down on those defending themselves. The real bad guys will continue the revolving door treatment, while those who dared defend themselves will feel the full weight of the law and the ire of a prosecutor who takes it personally. Trust me, they will. Any criticism, or worse yet action, that calls into question what is being done will be taken personally by any politician, so expect to see mayors and others going along with such actions. Yes, I am cynical when it comes to politicians.

The final option is that they realize they are in an untenable position, and reluctantly, with much dragging of feet and wailing and gnashing of teeth, move reluctantly away from being soft on crime. They will also have the sense not to vindictively prosecute those who act in self-defense/defense of others.

That’s the truly critical point in all of this. If they go after those daring to defend themselves and others, it will destroy what little respect and faith people may still have in the justice system, as well as the larger political system of which it is a part. It is also quite likely to bring about a true mob response, because the public is not going to put up with such prosecutions. There is already a lack of faith in the ballot box as a solution, and if any politician is stupid enough to think that people will just sit and take it while their families are being threatened and killed, they are mistaken.

I do NOT want to see us get to that point. There are people out there on all sides pushing for violence and a ‘new civil war’ and they are idiots. Quite a few of them seem to think it will be exciting, and that none of it will touch them or theirs. Here’s a clue: look at history and even current events around the world. There will be no true safe place. That is not a world we want.

What can we do? I hate to say it, but not much. Local elections matter, so get active and get involved. Push hard for real election integrity to try to build back some of the trust that is gone. Other than that, our best options are prayer and preparedness. And to move away from cities/areas with those soft-on-crime prosecutors. Not ideal maybe, but if you love and want to protect your family, it is the right thing to do.

UPDATE: Third and final(??) post on the shooting is here for your reading pleasure.

On Reading Scientific Papers

Back many moons ago, when I taught some basic science courses for a small university (tempted to put that in quotes), I encouraged a certain amount of skepticism and critical thinking in my students via a fictional sensational news/marketing push/story. I can’t remember all of it (stupid lightning), but enough to lead into today’s post.

The push story was that anyone contracting a particular gum infection, “gumjooboo,” stood a 99 percent chance of dying from it. Thing was, there was a special toothbrush now for sale that while very expensive, was 99.9999 percent effective in preventing gumjooboo. I then walked the students through parsing and researching to show that gumjooboo only effected a small percentage of a particular tribe in one small area of the Amazon basin. This led into some discussions on probability, odds, etc. Also, a bit of discussion on interpreting scientific papers.

First, and I say this as a former (still commit a bit of it) science journalist and former member of the National Association of Science Writers, take any media story about scientific research with a tun of salt. You might be amazed at how often the media presentation is 180 degrees from what the study says or shows. Number of reasons for it, including lack of specialization, lack of experience, and even deliberate misrepresentation.

Specialized reporting is not what it used to be in the corporate media. Newspapers and television stations, much less networks, had dedicated science and medical reporters. You had people like Jon Van covering science at the Chicago Tribune. You had people like Jules Bergman at ABC covering aviation and space. These were people with years, decades, of experience. You don’t find that as much anymore in corporate media. Instead, you far too often find people right out of J-school tasked with covering various science and medical studies. Funny thing is, we saw that coming and Jon, the medical reporter at the Tribune, and I had a very interesting discussion on that subject many years back. Sadly, they were right in their predictions. New media is mixed, but there are some excellent science and medical reporters out there.

So, let’s take a quick look at how to read a scientific paper. In fact, let’s do so in part in the context of current events.

First, in what publication is it appearing? If Scientific American, make that several tuns of salt right at the start. I, personally, no longer trust anything they print. If it is a paper on astrophysics and it’s in a biology journal or the Journal of Irreproducible Results, that should be a red flag. If it’s a medical study and in a medical or biological journal, that’s a good start.

Next, you are going to have a title. The title should be even, maybe even boring, as “reputable” journals avoid sensationalism. It it is highly sensationalistic, such as saying the President’s mother is an alien or gas stoves are causing massive brain damage and asthma, good odds it is not a valid study, and that it’s not in a reputable or good publication. Though to be fair, The Enquirer seems to be gaining ground on many so-called scientific journals.

Up next is the list of authors. It should include current employers for each (J. Blowhard, National Institute of Health) and in many online papers links to previous papers, etc. It should also lead to affiliations, that is the organizations to which that researcher belongs. Now, if you find in a paper on the horrors of using gas stoves that one or more of the authors worked for a company that removed gas from buildings or was dedicated to eliminating gas as a fuel, that’s another red flag. Always check current and past employers, professional affiliations, and previous papers.

Now, sometimes it is up front and above board, and as such listed high up. Most times, however, it is buried towards the bottom of the paper. The “that” is a disclosure of who funded the research in question. Sometimes it is open, quite often it is a foundation or fund that has a noble-sounding name. Always check that out, as quite often the major source of funding for that noble-sounding trust or whatever is a major industry organization or even a company. If that organization or company is either dedicated to eliminating the horror that is gas, or promoting the competition for gas, well, yeah, that’s another red flag.

If you really want some fun that’s not a gas, go look up how much FDA nutrition research over the years was funding by trusts and funds bearing names like Kellogg, or even directly by major food companies. It’s not even that hard as it is well documented. Funding is king, and often is key to understanding and evaluating the research paper in question. Even when the U.S. government funds research, look to see if it is taxpayer funding or courtesy of a grant to the government by an industry-funded trust.

Next up should be an abstract. This is a synopsis of the paper and it’s conclusions. To be honest, it is all that is read by far too many corporate media reporters and is why such reporting is often “just a bit outside.” They can be confusing, and it can be easy to read into them what you want to read into them. Good ones are not, but you’re dealing with scientists and engineers who are talking to themselves, not authors used to talking to the public.

First up in the paper should be the background. What led to the paper? Why did they do it the way they did it? Lots of good information usually, and it is often fun to read between the lines on this. One of my favorites remains a research study on coffee filtration, which when you read a bit between the lines, boiled down to: we are coffee-heads, some of us have lipid problems, so we decided to see if filtering made a difference because we are NOT giving up our coffee. It is also good place to start spotting red-flags, as if the background is sketchy, the study is sketchy.

Next thing to look at is methodology. Most good studies are looking at a real-world situation, and therefore the methodology should mirror the real-world as much as possible. Not so easy on things like black holes, but on possible pollutants and such from gas stoves, dead easy. Therefore, if you see things where the methodology basically sealed an area such that it was guaranteed to raise concentrations (layers of plastic, foam bars, etc.) as it is almost air-tight, that’s a big red flag.

Every good paper should have a section on prior research. It’s part of the discussion of why this research was needed and what the paper contributes to the discussion. Remember, real science is about questioning, researching, debating, and testing. Science is never settled, and thinking back on watching a grad student all but dance in Spacelab Control when she was proved right on a theory and her professor wrong still makes me smile. Note, the professor wasn’t upset, he found it a good thing. That’s real science.

If a paper either doesn’t have such a section, or it is woefully incomplete, it is not a valid scientific study and paper. For example, if a study uses limited numbers, small area, and questionable methodology to reach a conclusion, and fails to discuss an easily found paper on PubMed that involved samples relating to half a million children worldwide, there is an issue there.

There should also be a conclusion, but by this point unless it says Jeffrey Epstein didn’t hang himself, you should have all the data you need. If a paper is nothing but a series of red flags, it is not a paper but propaganda. Next question is who is behind it or why. Why would anyone want to force a large segment of the population onto a underpowered and problematic grid and away from clean energy that is harder to control and/or cut-off than electricity? Good questions.

You should always have questions at the end of a paper. In good papers, most of mine are along the lines of ‘who is doing the next step research on this’ and ‘where can I find more information.’ In bad papers and propaganda, more towards the above.

When it comes to papers and the media coverage of same, trust no one. Rather, trust but verify. Especially if research is being used to push major policy decisions.

UPDATE: Got reminded that you also need to check if data is being accurately compared. Not saying there can be a tendency in bad papers/propaganda to do apple/orange comparisons (it’s another one of those red flag things), but be sure it is apple to apple, and not an attempt at a quick tap dance.

UPDATE II: In regards the whole gas debacle, check out this very good thread that takes it completely apart. It is very much worth the read. Also, if you think they really have stopped the effort to ban gas, please think again.

That Shooting In Texas

By now, if you haven’t seen the video of the would-be robber of a taqueria and it’s customers getting shot, you are in the minority. When I first saw it, I implemented the 48-hour rule as I wanted to see what else came out. It’s now well past 48-hours, so here goes.

One of the best analyses I’ve seen is here at the always excellent Legal Insurrection. If they are not a daily read, they should be. In this case, the author of the post is a noted legal expert on use of force/deadly force/etc. For all I would love to see Guy Relford break this down for Indiana law, the article is an excellent breakdown that actually cites some of the relevant Texas law. It is well worth the read, and should provide a lot of good food for thought.

Now, some personal takes and experience on the shooting.

On many levels, this is a FAFO moment and a fitting fate for a career violent felon. For all that I can understand, and even sympathize a bit with the shooter, for me it crossed a line. And I say that as someone who has been shot at by someone committing a crime and who also accidentally broke up an armed robbery that also featured a perp with what turned out to be a fake pistol. Circumstances matter. If this had been in a period of violence or other breakdown of authority (given crime and soft prosecutors, you could make that argument IMO), I’d frankly be inlined to give it a pass.

But, it wasn’t and I agree with the author of the linked post a good bit. The first group of four shots was righteous. The second group was, for me, iffy. Given all, would be very inclined to give benefit of the doubt. The last shot was a kill shot, and probably superfluous. It is that shot that is likely to see the shooter indicted and convicted. Politically, very wise to convene a grand jury (though those are easy to rig) to do any indicting. That said, even if indicted the shooter has a fair chance given this happened in Texas. Will see what happens.

Now, for some of the handwringing I’ve been seeing online.

First, there is no law that requires you to only shoot someone in the front. To think otherwise is to engage in romantic ignorance void of reality. Whether in your own defense, but particularly in the defense of others, the safety of those others is of paramount importance. To use deadly force in that situation requires you to think about and act in accordance with trying to maximize their safety, not minimize it. The shooter showed good thinking with his actions, as he waited until the armed robber was not observing him and further that his gun was not pointed at any of the other victims. That the gunman waited until he had a green board says some good things about him. In fact, I hope they mitigate things.

Second, the claim that because he was turned away and headed towards the door made it an unrighteous shoot. Bullshit. You have no idea what that person is going to do next. They might run, they might decide to kill everyone they can, the fact is you don’t know and you have to expect the worst. If you don’t get that, ask the ghosts of all those killed simply to eliminate witnesses even after they’ve handed over the till, safe, jewels, etc. without a fight. You have to assume the worst, hope for the best, and act without a lot of time for introspective thought. Whatever happens, a lot of people who find themselves in that situation will second-guess themselves for years to come with what-ifs.

Third, it was an unrighteous shoot because the gun was a fake. Oh, save me. First hand experience: an evening of visiting various, er, cultural establishments in Columbus, Georgia resulted in a need to refuel my friend’s car and for me to offload. Long story short, I broke up an armed robbery. Even as things started to unfold, a part of me noted that something was odd with the perp’s gun. Turns out, after some chaos, shooting and a very brief chase by me, it was eventually discovered that it was a toy. Problem is, in the few brief seconds of time you have, you need to be acting, not thinking. Go with real gun, it’s safer for you and others. Also, keep in mind that it can be a thing to put orange tape or other devices on real guns to make people think they are toys. Deal with the situation as it appears and sort things out later when there is time.

All you can do is the best you can do. Take a gun law course in your state from someone who knows what they are doing. Don’t just practice, get training and even advanced training if you are going to carry. Know the law, know the tactics, and most of all, know yourself. Spend some time thinking about how you will deal with things if you do have to shoot, especially knowing that everyone from the prosecutor onto the keyboard warriors and the screaming gibbons of corporate media are going to paint you as a murderous psychotic no matter what. Think about it, figure ways to cope, and prepare as best you can. It’s never enough, but a start helps in the long run.

Winter Storm Quick Wash

While other storms have come to parts of the country since, the major winter storm has passed. Thankfully, it was not nearly as bad here as predicted. I hate to say this, but we may need to thank our mayor Boss Hogsbreath for that, since he said in advance it would be historic. As with almost everything he says or predicts, not so much.

Others were not so lucky, and sadly the death toll is still climbing. The worst area was also the one area that should have been the best prepared: western NY state. Rather than focus on the failure and/or incompetence of the governments state and local, let’s look at this more with a focus on the individual.

While the failure to pre-position equipment and supplies was one of the largest and most glaring failures of government, it raises a question: Did you have emergency stocks at work and in your vehicle(s)? It may not have been a huge amount, but I always had some things tucked away in the desk or cubicle when I worked office jobs. Same held true for non-office jobs as my locker usually held a few things.

When it comes to vehicles, there’s been a meme going around Twitter that points out that if your vehicle has weapons and magazines everywhere, but no food, water, etc., that basically you’re an idiot. I agree. Your vehicle should always have a bail-out bag, and when a winter storm is coming you should also have a bag with food, water, blankets, and anything else you can think of to help you stay warm and safe.

Which brings up another point. It’s not like this storm hit with no warning. Blizzard. Massive lows. Here’s a thought: stay home! I’ve worked a few jobs that were designated critical, where I had to go in as the job had to get done no matter what. Most jobs aren’t critical for all management would like people to think otherwise. I (and others) got a former manager mad a few years ago because during a winter storm we flat out told him the job was not worth our lives, and no we would not be in until conditions improved. He huffed and puffed, and we didn’t care. It literally wasn’t worth our lives, and they would have been in severe risk.

A blizzard or major winter storm is not the time to be out driving, and it is also most especially not the time to be out walking around. I don’t care how bad the craving for a candy bar may be, walking any distance in heavy falling snow with deep snow already on the ground and well-below-zero wind chills is a bit foolish. Life or death, layer up and do what you have to for the situation. If it is not literally a matter of life or death, just stay home.

While I know that some businesses count being out as a strike against you if there is no government no-travel order in place, again, is that job worth your life? Are they going to pay for your injuries or provide for your family if you are killed coming in to work (or at work for that matter)? If no, take the strike and you really should be looking around anyway IMO. Just look at how many died in NY because the no-travel order came criminally late.

All over the country there were a LOT of house fires. Most of them the result of improper (and sometimes impromptu) heaters. I will admit I need to up my heater game, but the time to do that is not during the storm. Make your choices in advance, ensure safety and proper ventilation, and be sure you have smoke/CO detectors and fire extinguishers. Also, if you use any form of electric heat, make sure the circuit can take the load.

That will do for a quick wash, and I hope that all of you survived the storm in comfort and safety! Here, the power flickered but did not go out and the local power company was on top of all the outages in the area. While literally tens of thousand did lose power around here, it was — for the most part — of short duration.

May all our emergencies be of short duration, and remember that preparedness always pays!

Still Slow

Having to spend time this morning dealing with Social Security. The promised call last week in regards retirement, or the promised follow-up, still have not happened. Not surprised.

Instead, I got a letter from the disability people telling me that a form I mailed back in early December did not reach them, despite the fact it was mailed in the same package as two other forms they apparently did get. Spending this morning working that issue instead of blogging or doing some fun writing. Got an idea for another little short that might get a laugh or two.

Beege Welborn at Hot Air has a good post on some recent Russian deaths. Add to that the number of mysterious fires at various locations that also just happen to produce (or possibly store) military items and it indicates an interesting time.

Others have said it, and I agree: all the deaths can’t be directly attributed to Vladimir. Quite a few, yes. Public disagreement with Vladimir has never been particularly healthy. That said, the GRU most likely did not do them all.

I keep harping on the fact that Russia is a very different culture, with very different mores, and a very different way of thinking about things. Business is something of a blood sport, and one rarely rises to oligarch without figurative or even literal blood on your hands. Hiring retired members of GRU 29155 is highly prized I hear. So, while I think Vladimir has indeed had some killed (Gazprom comes to mind), some (maybe even up to half) of the deaths are just a hazard of doing business in Russia. All in all, if I were an oligarch I would both hire a food taster and stay away from windows, roofs, and long stairways.

If you are traveling by air, good luck! I have at least one friend who is scheduled to fly Southwest this weekend, and is already looking into options. I like Southwest and have flown them many times. Back in the day, they allowed the flight attendants and others to have a sense of humor and otherwise make the flights as fun as possible. Hearing from multiple sources (one on WIBC Hammer and Nigel show yesterday was a retired pilot) that a lot of the problem is their scheduling system.

Short version: it has not been updated since the (early?) 90s and has no way to access via web, app, or anything else. It presumes you are where you are supposed to be, and has no real means of easily updating if that is not the case. Along with related ticketing and other systems, it’s a mess that should have been replaced 20 years ago. Such has been pointed out, multiple times it is reported, to senior management who did nothing.

In addition to whatever the Biden Regency does, expect to see a severe backlash from customers and investors. If there are not major changes in senior management, they may not be able to stay in business. Which would be a shame. I’d rather see a clean sweep at the top, needed upgrades made, and them stay in business myself.

More soon I hope. If anyone is inclined, hits to the fundraiser or other options very much appreciated.