I’ve not said a whole lot about the fiasco that is Woeing’s Starliner and the crew stranded on the ISS so far, but the cartoon I saw yesterday with Starliner as the SS Minnow and Gilligan in a space suit knocking on the hatch of the ISS was a good push. Besides, I had promised to write something in this post, and it is past time.
I’ve been worried about the Starliner effort for a while, as it has had far more problems than I would have liked from the start. Now, any new effort is going to have things crop up, as it is never as easy as people make it out to be to go from paper to actually bending metal. The best laid plans, and blue prints, rarely get everything just right; tech, particularly new or upgraded tech, rarely works as planned; and, I think the only time one sees complex systems flawlessly integrate at first try is in the movies.
Space is hard and harsh. Spacing is even harder.
That said, a lot of the basics are known and should — at this point — be well understood. The basics can, and should, be tweaked at need, but such shouldn’t be that difficult. Now, developing totally new systems, trying new things, and facing a huge amount of regulation (call it that for now) from an agency that is one of the most risk-adverse on the planet, and things can and do get interesting.
It can be done, if one has a “can-do” attitude and is willing to innovate, take risks, and even on occasion “discuss” things with said agency. Just look at Space X for what happens then.
When you have a company, however, that is “old-school” in many respects as to innovation, risk, etc.; and, said company has gone woke and turned away from what made it successful to start with, well, you get the current mess with Starliner.
Which is why I also keep hearing the voice of Martin Caidin pop up every so often. People have brought up his book and the movie Marooned in regards the current situation with the crew trapped on the ISS. A few have pointed out that he also wrote the book Cyborg which became the television series The Six Million Dollar Man. Few realize the sometimes pivotal roles he played in aviation and space over the years.
In the interest of full disclosure, Martin and I were friends and I acknowledge he was a better friend to me than I was to him. We even waged a futile effort to save the old Aviation/Space Writers Association at one point, an organization which I had joined in part because of Martin. If you cover aviation, particularly aviation accidents, you really should try to find a copy of the AWA guide to covering air accidents as it is still fairly spot on. I will also acknowledge that Martin was a bit of a character.
He was also one heck of a practical engineer who had a gift for science. For those of a nuclear war bent, you might want to notice who was heavily involved in exploring (and more) the concept of firestorms from nuclear blasts. Martin also was involved with a number of aviation advancements, as well as with historical preservation. Space also has his imprint upon it. Some of the books (and stories) he wrote were done as a way of exploring topics that certain establishments didn’t want to explore or were reluctant to explore. Fairly common in some ways for science fiction, but Martin truly ran with it.
Martin also understood that advancement (literary, scientific, or engineering) means risk. He understood calculated risk. Which is why I suspect some of his commentary on the current situation might veer a touch towards the pungent. Especially in regards the possibility of the crew being told to ride the capsule down. Marooned was fiction (and a bit of a push towards developing a rescue capability), and should stay that way.
Right now, the capsule is blocking some urgently needed real estate, namely one of two docking ports. If the software got changed to remove the remote/independent separation ability because of NASA “regulations” the situation is even more rich in irony. That said, it needs to be cleared. That said, with the cascade of failures in Starliner, I would not ride it down nor would I order anyone to ride it down. Frankly, I think the best option right now is to try to update the software and risk bricking it. If it works, port cleared and the capsule can be sent back to Earth where if it survives re-entry it can be studied. Medium case is clearing the port and adding a rather large chunk of space debris to LEO. Worst case is that it bricks and the port remains blocked. It’s blocked already, so not seeing a true downside to trying.
I’m not going to say that Woeing needs to go completely back to the drawing board, but I think they might want to consider going pretty close to it. They may also want to look at adopting the old model of operations from when they were Boeing (and successful) and putting the engineers back in charge. Radical, I know, but it is what is needed.
If they do, expect support from me and from elsewhere I suspect we might hear some clapping and some pithy comments about it taking long enough, get to it.
By the way, I would commend almost any of Martin’s fiction and non-fiction (!!) to you. Among other things, he wrote a guide to surviving nuclear war that is not only good, but also applicable to general preparedness if I remember correctly. Heck, I need to try to find a (reasonably priced) copy if I can. If you haven’t seen it, the movie Marooned is pretty good. Again, read his works as he was more of a key figure in modern aviation and space than many realize.
Also, while I’m thinking about it, Stephen Green at PJ, and both David Strom and Jazz Shaw at Hot Air are doing some really good space and science coverage. Check them out.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.