The Laughing Wolf – Page 70 – Commentary, Punditry, and More

Preparedness Pays: Draft Chapter 2A

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

I had originally planned to do Chapter 1 a bit differently, but am opting for now to try smaller chapters, possibly focused on a single concept, to make it easier for those new to preparedness. We will see how it goes, meantime, onwards!

NOTE: This is a (very) rough draft

Building With Our Blocks

Now that we have our basic building and planning blocks, let’s take a look at how to use them to create the preparedness plan that works for you. To do so, why don’t we take a look at what most of it boils down to: ensuring people have the resources they need.

As noted previously, resources include (but are not limited to) things like food, water, power, fuel, and other resources necessary for life, much less modern life. So, let’s start with the most critical items for life: food and water.

Most people in first world countries (and even many second) take clean, safe, and abundant water for granted. We cut the tap on, and sweet, sweet, water flows out into our glasses, sinks, or tubs. While there are exceptions everywhere, overall we have gotten rather spoiled about water. Even the most minor of disaster or emergency becomes a real issue when it effects our water.

Most of the time, that impact is an annoyance. The water goes off while you are in the shower and you need to rinse. You can’t do the laundry or dishes because the water went off. It’s not the end of the world, but it impacts your day. Thing is, the longer it is off the greater the impact. Given that you can live for days to weeks on little to no food, and only a very few days without water, water really needs to be your top priority for preparedness. So, let’s look at it in terms of our planning blocks on the three lengths of disaster.

For minor disasters, those lasting minutes to a week, stored water comes in very handy. Caught bathing and need to rinse off? A bottle of water or maybe part of a gallon jug of water takes care of that. I keep both bottles of water and gallon jugs of distilled water around personally, as I use the latter for making coffee (the water around where I currently live being a fluid phase of limestone) and the former for general use. During any emergency, don’t throw out the empties: they have important uses we will get into later. For planning, while you have to have two liters of water a day from drinking and food to survive, you are going to find life a lot better if you have three to four liters per person per day.

For moderate to major disasters, storage really isn’t practical. Though, one should plan for ways to increase your storage if there is warning. Collapsable containers, tub bladders, even your cookware can and should be used to store water if there is warning of a coming moderate to major disaster. If you have freezer or other containers, fill them up too. If it will safely hold water, fill it up!

So, what can you do to prepare for water during a moderate to major disaster? You are going to need one or more water purification systems. No, I’m not talking systems for cities or such, but the small, mostly portable systems used by campers and backpackers. Those systems are designed to take water from lakes, streams, or other sources and turn it into pure, clean, safe water for drinking. Some of them can even handle various types of grey water. Wait, what? Grey water?

You are going to deal with three types of water in life, much less during a disaster. Clean water is what you are used to drinking. Grey water is water that has been used for things like showering, cleaning, technically even cooking water like pasta water is grey water. Dark/black/other-term-here water contains sewage or other organic or chemical contaminants. There are ways for you to deal with filtering and purifying grey and black water, but we will get into that more later.

For now, you’ve got enough information to begin planning for your water needs. Given that things never go to plan, I recommend being a pessimist and planning on storing enough drinking water to get through a minor disaster if at all possible.

That may not be possible. Each of us has a different situation in terms of space, storage space, and other delights. I’ve heard of some apartments or rentals that have it in the lease that you are not to store water or other fluids in the structure. In your planning, get creative. There are a lot of odd spaces and places you might not think about, but will work great for storage.

For any and all disasters, look at water storage options. There are a variety of collapsible containers out there for camping and emergencies. Some hold just a gallon or three, and others can hold a hundred or more gallons. The tub bladders are a great idea since that part of the house/apartment is build to hold that weight, and you will be amazed at how much water you can store in one.

For longer term preparedness, research water purification systems and find what works for you. If you have the budget, or can budget for it over time, I highly recommend a portable system for each person, and a larger camping system for the home. It gives you maximum flexibility and capability at need. Also, get replacement elements for each system, at least a year’s worth if possible. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

Also, when researching those systems, keep in mind they are not all the same. Some basically just filter, so you don’t get mud and any large parasites or other delights. Others will filter out even smaller things. Yet others will purify the water as well as filtering it. You can even look at getting water purification tablets and using those on the water before putting it through a filter. Not a bad idea to plan on having some of those around anyway, just in case. Also, for a major disaster, you also want to research sand filters and how to make them, for possible inclusion in your planning.

Now that you’ve got the basics so that you can plan for water, let’s take a look at food. As with water, there are some basic minimums to consider. While you can technically survive on as little as 800 calories a day, you really need around 1200 calories a day, and about 1400 a day if you are going to be active.

Those calories need to be balanced, in that you need about 72 trace elements, 20 essential amino acids, and some essential fats to live. Amino acids are the building blocks of proteins, as well as a good bit of the human body. Our body can actually produce 11 of the essential amino acids we need to survive and thrive, but we need to get the remaining nine through our diet.

Now, there are foods that contain complete proteins, that is they have all 9 of the essential amino acids needed by the body. When you eat fish, poultry, dairy, eggs, and meat you are getting complete proteins. In grains, quinoa is a complete protein.

You can also “mix and match” to get complete protein. For example, legumes with rice can do the job, but if you mix legumes, a veggie, and a grain, you can as well.

You also want to research essential fats. Yes, you need a certain amount of fat each day to survive, and there are some fats you really need. It is much tastier and easier to include such in your supplements and food than to catch and eat six to eight medium to large moths each day.

Just as there is no one magic list for preparedness, there is no one perfect recipe for nutrition. You have to find what works for you and yours, and any known dietary problems or needs. Now, when I say dietary problem I mean a diagnosed medical condition, not that you hate X, Y, or Z or avoid them because of virtue signaling. While I find low-carb works well for me right now, in an emergency I’m an omnivore and will eat whatever I have to ensure proper nutrition.

For moderate to major disasters, you also need to consider supplements to ensure proper nutrition and health. There are a lot of supplements sold that claim many things, but those things may or may not be verified. My favorite is still the calcium supplement that did indeed have several hundred times the amount of calcium of any other supplement. Only thing was that it was a form of calcium that could not be absorbed by the body…

For long-term nutrition and survival, you really need to be focused on those things that provide you trace elements and other compounds you might not get from tight rations. Things I will recommend: a good multi-vitamin, Vitamin C, and Vitamin D.

A good multi-vitamin gives you most of those trace elements in the recommended daily amount. Go generic and you can get a multi-year supply for a reasonable amount. No, it’s not perfect but it gets you most of the way there. Yes, right now you are urinating most of it away. In a survival situation you likely won’t be. You will be glad to have it.

Why Vitamin C? Scurvy for one thing. In a true disaster, Vitamin C can end up in short supply in your food (or lack thereof), which can and will result in scurvy and other delights. Just ask the British Navy, who finally figured out that a lime a day kept the doctor away. Again, inexpensive and can prevent a number of health issues.

Why Vitamin D? You may or may not be getting much sun for a while in a nuclear war or similar disaster. Low D-levels have been found to be linked with a host of medical issues, and no one wants to see rickets and other delights return. Again, D3 is inexpensive and can prevent a number of other health issues.

What else do you need? You really need to sit down with your doctor to work that out. If you trust your doctor, get with them and ask what you should look at getting and taking.

For a minor disaster, it’s not that hard to stock up enough food to make it through the week. It’s the moderate to major length disasters that you need to consider all the above discussion. One more small bit of food for thought in your planning: be sure to include a lot of soups and stews. They are a great way to get some of that water you need to survive, a great from a nutrition perspective, and can allow you to make the fullest use of ingredients. Especially if the power has gone out, and will be out for more than a few days, and you have things in the refrigerator and freezer. Yes, you do need to think about things like that in your planning.

Now that you have the basic blocks to begin planning for the most essential part of preparedness, we can turn to the next two most essential things: light and cooking.

The book as it goes:

Preparedness Pays: Draft Introduction

Preparedness Pays: Draft Chapter 1A

Not Quite Back…

The computer is now at full power again thanks to a new power supply. Given how often those seem to die on me (and I even have my electronics on good surge protectors), please feel free to hit the tip jar so I can put one or more away for later.

The computer is back, but I’m not quite back after yesterday’s fun. Not sure why part of the body decided to be a jerk, but it did a job of it. To the point I wondered if I would have to head to the ER again. Rather wiped me out. Not going to go into details, but I really do have to think there is something to quantum probability cascades, and that being hit by lightning might trigger same.

When I first found the wonderful (sadly retired) doctor who had treated a number of survivors, and was introduced to Lightning Strike & Electrical Shock Survivors, I was cautioned about running into survivors who blamed the hit for a number of unrelated things that happened after. When it comes to health issues, I really think that a study of survivors in regards quantum probability cascades might prove interesting. Purely theoretical, but interesting.

Hopefully my system will soon be fully back on an even keel and my power will be restored. Hope to get more done, and there is a lot more to do on the book. Think we are all going to need it, sooner rather than later. If you are not watching what is going on in the Netherlands, and with the NSF funding a so-called journalist organization to produce propaganda software to push “official” government information, you should be. The ride is about to show you what bumpy really is…

Offline

UPDATE: New power supply obtained. If part of my body will quit being a jerk to the rest of us, hope to be back at it tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Barring donations, will be offline until at least the first full week of December. The power supply for the “new” computer that I’ve not even had a year at this point, has died. Need a new one. Not too bad a price, but no funds to spare for it right now. Not helping that we are having router issues (landlord issue) as well. More soon, on when I can get power and internet going.

Thanksgiving Dinner

Even if I could have afforded it, I would not have done the “traditional” meal yesterday. First, it’s just me and the traditional meal is a bit much even with how much I enjoy eating. Second, it’s a labor of love that needs to be shared. The last time I cooked the full meal was for a military unit, and it wasn’t that much more effort and ingredients than some past family gatherings.

Besides, I do try to keep Keto though I did go off it yesterday rather thoroughly. Most of my favorites growing up don’t qualify these days: rice and gravy, sweet potato casserole with pecan crust, a green congealed salad with cream cheese and pecans, and the stuffing. I do miss a good pecan pie, and while she was not a part of the Thanksgiving crowd, my cousin Ann was a baker who could hold her own against some professional chefs, and her pies and cakes were amazing.

Also, I have to admit, that after the lightning strike and all that happened, I don’t eat as much as I used to. Even a normal meal can make me feel bloated and uncomfortable for hours. Dinner can be as much a snack as anything else these days.

So, I opted for a full meal but with reduced portions. I have salmon in the freezer because I needed a couple of portions a while back for a recipe, which meant I had to get a package of the thankfully individually shrink-wrapped portions. Salmon was a luxury growing up, a rarity, and I will have to give my mother props for her salmon croquettes. I don’t think I had fresh salmon until I was in high school. So, luxury meat I bought when prices were much, much better it is. Grilled with a smokey bourbon glaze.

At the doctor’s recommendation after the open heart surgery, I went off Keto a bit and discovered I don’t miss a lot of the standard carbs. Exceptions are pecan waffles, mashed potatoes (real is better than instant, but…), and crackers and corn chips. Since I had decided to have a waffle for breakfast, I opted to go for mashed cauliflower instead of potato. With additional butter and cheese, not bad and filled that spot. Did cheat and buy it on sale.

The veggie was another treat from childhood, asparagus. Rare treat growing up was canned asparagus (you almost never saw fresh in the store back then) with mayo. Bit of dill maybe. So, Aldi had some fresh in and on sale, and while I prefer to grill, our little porch grill is not good for that. So, I did a sautee with a bit of white wine, butter, olive oil, salt, pepper, garlic, and a hint of smoked paprika.

I had a can of the green ripe olives in the emergency stash. Growing up, the black ripe olives were a huge hit with pretty much everyone. Not sure if it is true, but heard a tale of one alleged adult getting into a fist fight with two or three of the toddlers, and not coming out ahead. I may or may not have been one of the toddlers involved. Toddlers tend to punch out and up. Male or female adult groins are quite sensitive and make a good target. Enough said. For all that I do still enjoy the black olives, I found the tree-ripened olives many years back and have not looked back. Amazing flavor. Second major comfort food niche filled.

For those who want to try it, the glaze for the salmon is easy to do. In a bowl, I put a dollop (precise measurements people, precise measurements!) of raw local honey, about a half a teaspoon of bourbon, a couple of drops of lime juice, chipotle, smoked salt, fresh ground pepper, and a bit of hot smoked paprika. Don’t drink? Leave the bourbon out. Want to double down on the smokey flavor? Use a good Islay Scotch instead. Mix well, place on top of the salmon, and cook. Yesterday, I fashioned a container around the salmon with aluminum foil to ensure that when the glaze melted it stuck around to give max flavor.

Desert was a slice of Key Lime Pie. It was okay, though I wish I could have gotten it from Publix, as that chain does amazing Key Lime pies! The white wine I used with the asparagus was not quite a two-buck-chuck, but close enough that I had wondered if it would even be good. It was, with some wonderful citrus notes that worked well with the asparagus and tasted good when drinking. Pro Tip: if you would not drink the wine, do not cook with it. Later, I did have some bourbon as I relaxed in my chair.

So, I hope your day was filled with love as well as good and tasty things. I got started on my giving thanks ahead of time as on the day things can get hectic.

Oh, and nice thing about my meal was that I had everything prepared and cooked in right around an hour. Clean-up took maybe 15-30 minutes. Not bad for Thanksgiving.

Happy Thanksgiving

A Happy and Blessed Thanksgiving to all! May your spirit be as nourished today as your body, and may you be blessed with abundance in all aspects of your life.

Giving Thanks

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, which began as a celebration of life, abundance, and thanks. I’ve long tried to stop each year and give thanks for all that is good in my life. That can include things that may not seem a blessing, but often in those mysterious ways turn out to be so. So, I give thanks to God and thanks to those here who have impacted my life.

First and foremost, I am thankful to still be here. A year ago last June, lightning entered my life and started a most interesting journey for me. A year ago last October I had open heart surgery so they could take care of three different issues that had cropped up. The strike itself was a series of small miracles that made the difference between my getting up and going to work not realizing I had been hit, and my landlord finding my body instead. The last year plus has seen a number of medical and other challenges, and we seem to be holding on fairly well.

While it is hard, I try to be thankful for my memory issues. Right now, my short-term memory is, ah, limited. There are portions of my long-term memory that I can’t access. I’m told that this too shall pass, and while it can be frustrating (or worse) it also reminds me to be thankful for what I have, and that in about three years my brain should have healed and most of these issues will then pass. Until then, I’m thankful that there was no major physical damage (fractures and the like) to the brain, that it will heal, and that I have methods of coping that help a lot. I may still have to put my morning pills in a bowl, count, and verify to be sure I take them all; but, I can do that and pretty much everything else on my own.

I find it very hard to be thankful for the hearing loss. In addition to general loss in both ears, and an increase in tinnitus, I lost all the upper frequency hearing in one ear, and the nerves are dead so no getting it back via tech. Things sound strange, different, or missing. That said, it does force me to slow down and actually listen on occasion, which in this world can be a good thing. It also makes me appreciate what I still can hear even more. For that, I am thankful.

I am thankful for the open heart surgery, as it seems to have worked well and from which I have bounced back amazingly well given all. Still working on endurance and more, but it is a blessing to be able to get out and walk and enjoy the beauty of God’s creation. And to meet a number of the neighborhood dogs. That’s really fun to do.

I am thankful for my regular medical team, and for the team at RHI who have helped me develop some of the methods of coping that allow me to function well (most of the time). For all that I sometimes do resent having to live off lists and such, I’m also thankful I have that option and that it works as well as it does as much as it does.

I am thankful for all who have offered support and encouragement through the fundraiser. I never expected that I would get hit by lightning, much less that it would lead to a year-plus of medical and other challenges or that I would be out of work so long. The prayers, encouragement, and financial support are amazing and why I am still going. With the medical on an even keel for now, though it took much longer than planned/desired, working hard to get moved out to the Southwest. Thank you all!

I am thankful for you, my readers. There is overlap between this group and the fundraising group, but you too have offered prayers, encouragement, and financial gifts. Some of you have offered tech support and other information as this blog has changed hosts and otherwise started on the path of being a well-read blog once again. Again, thank you all!

Finally, I am thankful for my friends. As with all such dramatic changes in life, one finds out who one’s friends truly are in times like these. I have met friends I didn’t realize I had, and I’ve seen true friends stand out like wheat from chaff. I have seen kindness unbounded from strangers, and have reconnected with friends from the past. For it all, I give thanks and say to you, thank you all.

There are many more blessings in my life, but for now I share these with you and encourage you to take the time this Thanksgiving to list the blessings (even in disguise) in your life and give thanks. It is right and proper to do so. Equally, it is a good reminder of all that is good in our lives in these interesting times.

The times are not good, but in the face of it people still do good things. Have Faith, as even when things are dark and tight, there is good and help in this world. Also, remember that together we can do more than alone, and we need to stand with our brothers and sisters during this great challenge.

Be not despondent, be not afraid. Instead, give thanks and do what what you can so that all of us can move forward together.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Asymmetrical Musings 4

Today, we need to consider a different lesson. Invasion and/or occupation are a de facto declaration of war no matter the words used in excuse. Each war has it’s own lessons to learn, and history suggests that the truism about preparing to fight the last war is sadly true. For just two examples, think of WWI and the machine gun versus formation fighting. In WWII, we saw the battleship replaced by the aircraft carrier.

Sadly, I fear we are well on our way to learning a wrong lesson from the Russia-Ukraine war. For far too many, the focus is on drones, loitering munitions, and advanced artillery. The first two in particular have grabbed popular fascination, and what is being done with them is indeed amazing, successful, and more. There are already concepts for the next drone du jour, and a lot of armchair talk about how drones and other unmanned systems are the future.

To my mind, there are two big problems for anyone facing or under occupation in regards this. First, drones are the technology of today. Second, the enthusiasts miss the key point that makes drones possible: data.

As for the first point, drones have already been changing the face of warfare for a few years now. What has changed is that troops regular, irregular, and partisan are making full use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technology. At least in some quarters, the creative use of COTS has been discussed for some time, especially as a variety of systems have matured. Video cameras and displays, drones, model rockets, advanced phone and radio devices, and more all have a place.

Drones will be a part of warfare in any form from now on. The real question is what will be the technology of the next war? Again, as we’ve discussed before, what matters most in the struggle against any invader or occupier is flexible minds. In this war, it is that flexibility that saw drones modified for recon, for pinpoint bombing (micro bombing), and even delivery of small (or even medium) items to troops cut off or otherwise needing resupply. It was that mental flexibility that saw someone use a 3-D printer to design and print a tail fin for various grenades (mostly 40s) so that they fell straight and true onto target.

Which brings us to data. Knowing where to start looking for targets takes data. Controlling drones at remote ranges takes data. Sharing your wild hair for modifying a drone to hit enemy targets takes data. Sharing the 3-D printer file for grenade tail fins (and other delights) takes data. Assessing strike and other action results takes data. Data, and the ability to share/communicate it, are essential to fighting any invasion or occupation.

In this case, quite a bit of that rests on the use of the Starlink satellite internet system. The enemy can jam many things, it’s hard to jam an entire satellite constellation. Add in the ability of cell phones to communicate directly with satellites, and you have something any general throughout history would have killed to have for their campaigns.

The modern smartphone is, at its core, a computer. If you can hook that computer directly to a satellite independent of cellular service, you have the ability to pull in data from satellites, web sites, and more. You also have the ability to control systems from a distance. Make it a discrete hot spot, and you can hook in drone or other controls to it. You can hook a laptop into it, and then brother do your abilities go up.

Now, if you can figure out how to make your uplink signal shielded or a tight-beam to help escape detection (for the enemy will be looking for you), all the better. Even better is to hide the abilities of the phone to a cursory search. The Russians have primarily been checking cell phones for obvious signs of resistance such as text messages, e-mail, photos, and such. They may get smart, and if not, others are surely learning lessons as well.

If you even begin to think you might be invaded or occupied, now is the time to start setting up the necessary communications/data systems. You need multiple access points to the internet, cellular, and satellite systems. You need to make those as secure as possible. Set up as many systems as you can for redundancy as well as security. It would also be wise to set up some maskirova of your own, both in terms of hiding things and putting up some things for the enemy to find and/or destroy so they think they have hurt you.

Also, start buying terminals and services now, and set-up funds out-of-country to pay for those services after you are occupied. Buy new cell phones with the satellite technology, and get what computer equipment you can as well. Despite Elon’s generosity to the Ukraine, the level of service needed costs. Plan for it. And look at ways to get creative and use the enemy’s systems (and funding sources) against them. Again, flexible minds.

What will be the next drone? Good question, and there are some options already out there. Without data and the ability to communicate it, none of it will be effective.

For the grins of it, some thoughts in fiction form.

Korolev stood in the control tower and watched the massive cargo plane maneuver to the end of the runway, as always fascinated with the beauty of the movement as well as wishing it could hurry up. Right now, the jamming systems around the base were down, as were the automatic defense systems against drones since it would not go well with higher if said systems took out your own plane.

The one thing up and working, however, was radar. Ground clutter meant that it could only scan from about fifty feet up, but everyone knew that drones came in and dropped things, and to do so meant usually they flew a hundred feet or higher.

Cursing as the plane stopped at it’s hold point, Korolev lit a cigarette and muttered a few words about being a nervous old woman. He would be glad when the plane was gone and the defenses could come back up. Besides, the plane not only had a few prisoners, but a lot more medical evacuations as well as items liberated locally to be sent back home. The evacuations were needed, not only for the wounded, but that accidental electrical short in the barracks shower had overwhelmed the cardiac capabilities of the medical staff. The hospital of the occupied air base was not designed for the number of casualties coming in to it.

Finally, the giant plane began its roll down the runway. About a third of the way down, it began to rotate, and finally the wheels left the ground. Even as they did so, however, disaster struck.

The drones were small and had come in on the deck, only lifting up briefly to clear the fence. No one saw them until it was too late. As the transport lifted, all of them homed in on the engines on the right wing, the wing on the same side as all the hangars, storage, and other necessities of a modern airbase.

Most were simply small drones, while a few may have had some bit of explosive or incendiary munitions on board. It almost didn’t matter as they hit each engine like a massive bird strike. Even as Korolev’s mouth began to open and his cigarette to fall unnoticed, those engines came apart.

For something moving so slow, the pinwheel to the right happened in the blink of an eye. Still in ground effect, the giant transport didn’t have a chance. It crashed into the flight line and hangars on the right side of the runway. Fully fueled, it exploded into a mushroom cloud that swelled up hundreds of feet even as thousands of liters of burning jet fuel rushed out over the ground to engulf nearby hangars and planes.

Away from the crash, crews raced into the hangars and revetments where the fighter jets waited.

“Good!” thought Korolev. “Get them out and away before they go up too.”

As flames began to engulf the hangars, explosions began, spreading the destruction even further. It was then that Korolev noted that the ends had popped off a crate in the pile of liberated items to be sent back home on the next flight. It was from the local school robotics collective and contained all the robots they had. As he watched, fifteen to twenty robots suddenly raced out of the crate, and headed towards the hangars and revetments for the fighters.

The wheeled robots were fast, agile, and had closed the distance before anyone could react. They reached their targets and exploded under the fighters near the left main landing gear in a rippling wave. Those going for the hangars targeted the lead fighter, trapping the rest inside. The planes that didn’t go up immediately from the effects of the directional mines in each robot collapsed as the landing gear gave way. Many of them caught fire as they did so.

With almost everyone looking at the twin disasters, no one saw the third wave coming in. These were planes, the current iteration of the old radio controlled planes and some of them were quite large. Like the original attack, they came in low, popped over the fence, and went straight for the base tank farm.

The largest fired what appeared to be modified model rockets at the big tanks. They weren’t trying to make them explode, just leak. Though if they had exploded no one in the resistance was going to mind. Some of the mid-size and smaller planes did modified bombing runs, lobbing 40mm grenades with tail fins at the sides of the tanks. The last few planes across dropped incendiary grenades as they raced off and dropped back down to the deck outside the fence.

The build seemed slow to those used to the movies, but within a few minutes, the tank farm was ablaze, with only the deep revetments around the tanks holding in the burning fuel. Horrified, Korolev stared at one of the emergency pipes that penetrated the berm so that spilled gas could be pumped into trucks and taken away at need. Was it his imagination, or was that remotely controlled valve starting to cycle?

Previously In This Series

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Asymmetrical Musings 2

Asymmetrical Musings 3

Preparedness Pays: Draft Chapter 1A

The Basic Blocks Of Practical Preparedness

Since I know you probably skipped over the introduction and all that other stuff up front, a quick review. Preparedness is not something that should be daunting, intimidating, overwhelming, or anything other than fairly straightforward, maybe even enjoyable. Brave words, but accurate.

Yes, there are an almost infinite number of possible disasters large and small out there. It’s what the brainiacs refer to as an “Infinity minus one” situation though I still say the number of possible disasters is “Infinity minus two” since the Sweet Meteor Of Death (SMOD) proved to be just another lying politician. The thing is, the number of potential disasters is not where you need to focus. Instead, look at what can be affected by a disaster and the types of damage done.

When you come right down to it, there are only three things that can be affected by any disaster: people, places, things. Now, let’s take a look at each. People can only be impacted three ways: loss of resources, body damage, and fiscal damage. Places can be impacted two ways: damage and destruction. Things can be impacted three ways: damage, destruction, and scarcity. These eight things are the basic building blocks for preparedness. Working with them, you can design a plan for practical preparedness that you can work into you life and lifestyle. Eight is much easier to plan for, no?

Now that we have building blocks, you need some planning blocks to go with them. While there are several such blocks, we are going to start with the most basic. They revolve around time, since all your planning will ultimately do so as well. Time is what differentiates a minor disaster from a moderate disaster and those from a major disaster. For purposes of planning, a minor disaster will last minutes up to a week. A moderate disaster will last a week up to a month. A major disaster is a month or longer.

For example, a power failure or the city where you live shutting down water to your neighborhood for work is a thing of minutes to a day or two (usually). A winter storm is going to impact things for a few days to a week as a general rule. The thing is, minor disasters are of relatively short duration, and the shorter that duration the easier to have practical preparedness turn a disaster into, at most, an inconvenience.

Moderate disasters take things up a step. They can be major weather events that cause damage, industrial accidents, or other delights where most normal day-to-day activities are impacted for up to a month. While things may not be back to normal by then, they are to the point where most of your normal life can resume.

Major disasters are going to have an impact lasting months and even years. Major disasters usually involve rebuilding not just structures, but lives and institutions. It can be a massive tornado, hurricane, or nuclear war. It could be a massive crop failure, or even the failure of a major system (economic, logistics, etc.)

More than you will believe right now, here at the start, the type of the disaster rarely matters. It is the length of the impact that does.

So, let’s start playing with our blocks. First up, relax, there are no pop quizzes in this book. When it comes to preparedness, life is the pop-quiz and I want you to pass with flying colors. Let’s start by looking at our three people building blocks.

What is loss of resources? It is the loss of food, water, power, fuel, and other resources necessary for life, much less modern life. For this block, it is the resources that need to be replenished on a regular basis. It is the groceries we buy to make into meals. It is the water we get from the tap and other libations that we drink, adult or otherwise. It is the electric bill we pay so that we flip a switch and the lights come on, the stove runs, and other wonderful things happen. It is the gas that comes into the house for heating and cooking. It is the gasoline for our car, the lawn mower, or even the chain saw. If you have a fireplace, it is the wood that goes in it to be burned.

What is body damage? It is physical harm to the body. It is the impact on mind and spirit that come from a disaster. Both have negative effects on the body, and prevent a person from responding fully to a disaster. It’s hard to chop wood with a broken arm. Cuts and scrapes need to be mended. It is the tendency in the human animal to blame themselves for things outside their control, as well as to blame ourselves for not being perfect in our preparations, much less life. It is being overwhelmed by the scope of a disaster, and losing our sense of proportion as we face a problem.

What is fiscal damage? It is the loss of monetary resources or other valuables as the result of disaster. It can be the cost of repairs, or it can be the loss of value because of inflation, recession, or even depression. It can be the result of fraud or other unfriendly action. While it will not be a major part of this book, it is something for which planning and preparation is needed.

Now, lets look at our two building blocks for places. For our purposes, places are going to be primarily structures, though natural locations and structures also technically fall into this category.

What is damage in the context of this block? It is anything that impacts the structural integrity and/or the weather tightness of the structure or location such as a cave. It is broken windows, cracked foundation, a hole in a roof, a hole in or damage two the side of a structure. It is fire, it is flood, it is a collapsed ceiling. Anything that makes a structure become of limited use and habitability is damage. More importantly, it is damage that can be repaired.

What is destruction in the context of this block? It is not just the total loss of the structure, but it can also be damage that is too extensive or that can’t be easily repaired. Anything that makes a structure unsafe to use or totally destroys that structure is destruction for the terms of this building block.

Now, let’s look at things. Things are all the devices and objects we use in everyday life. They are our cell phones, our tools, and our vehicles. They are also the bridges and roads we use. There is not much we can do to prepare those things for an emergency, but we do need to plan on what to do if they are damaged or gone.

What is damage in the context of this block? It can be physical damage, such as a cracked screen on a phone, a bent fender, or a broken handle. It can be water damage from rain or flooding. It could even be damage caused by an electromagnetic pulse. It is anything that prevents or reduces the usability of an item.

What is destruction in the context of this block? It is the complete loss of use of the item.

What is scarcity in the context of this block? It means the item, in full working condition, is in limited supply. It means there isn’t much or many of the item out there. It means what you have needs to last as long as possible.

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s look at applying our planning blocks to our building blocks.

The book as it goes:

Preparedness Pays: Draft Introduction

Asymmetrical Musings 3

Welcome to another meeting of the party who thinks fastest laughs last club. In this post and this post, we’ve begun touching on some of the lessons learned about asymmetrical and irregular warfare coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war. Today, I want to take a look at the somewhat touchy area of sabotage and/or small unit operations.

I say somewhat touchy because when it comes to sabotage, neither side particularly wants to say too much. For the occupier/oppressor, claiming or admitting sabotage has some very serious downsides. For one thing, it lets everyone know the area is not under control, and that those opposing the invasion/occupation are effectively fighting against such. For the invaded/occupied, you run the risk of giving away techniques, people, and more if you admit to it, worse yet if you brag about it. Which is why you see a lot of implication that something was sabotage (or a small unit strike) by one side and the other side saying yep sure was something with the implication they may (or may not) have been behind it.

Look at Vladimir’s bridge for an example. Sabotage? Small unit attack? About everything has been hinted at in terms of how it was done, with the Russians torn between claiming sabotage (truck full of explosives that they missed on inspection) or small unit attack (water-based drone or guided munition from nearby small unit). The Ukrainians are being very cagey about it, pretty much saying we did it even while neither confirming or denying they did it. It’s a dance of psy-ops and politics for the leadership on each side. For those in any occupied area, it’s pretty much pure psy-ops and operations.

For the occupied, it’s finding ways large and small to hurt the occupier. Big and showy is great for morale, but never forget that nibbling away at the edges can work wonders too. Food, as discussed the other day, is but one means of hitting at the occupier.

Water systems are a good one. While contaminating the water supply is an option, the harder thing to prevent is damage to the delivery systems (and boy can you get creative with just a few things from the home supply or hardware store. Hot water is needed for multiple things, from dishes and washing clothes to bathing. Industrial boilers and heaters are simple on one level, and incredibly complex on others. Pity when critical components fail or go missing, especially when it is hard to get spares. Just even switching hot for cold has a psychological effect, especially if combined with a host of other ‘nuisance’ things going on.

Electrical? Even better. It’s amazing how many complexes and facilities depend on two or three large transformers for primary power. Transformers that are in the open, depend on oil and other fluid inside to function, and have some control electronics nearby. Industrial acid thrown or sprayed on them might not be detected immediately, and while it takes time, that can be a good thing. Snipers potting them so that oil leaks or other damage is done is another. Heck, a satchel charge or three tossed into the transformer compound will do the trick too. Thing is, no matter how direct or creative you get, those types of transformers are expensive to replace and may take time to replace as there may not be a ready supply of replacements.

Another thought is that modern electronics (and even basic electrical appliances) don’t react well if the electricity coming in isn’t precisely the right voltage, amperage, etc. Be a shame if the controls got hacked and things got just a bit off.

HVAC systems are another option, and it is surprising how many are online or have online access. While you can take them out, consider also a period where things work too well then not well enough. Temperature, pressure, have fun. Take out the systems in their headquarters, military or civilian. Particularly if they have an underground bunker of some type, as it is going to get hot fast without ventilation and AC.

In addition, of course, are the normal targets for sabotage: rail, roads, power lines, airports, depots, etc. Pick and choose your battles for maximum damage with conserving your people as much as practical. It’s not just people getting caught and killed, it’s that even with cell structure things can happen where more than one cell or string gets rolled up and technical means exposed.

AvGas and Jet Fuel are easy to compromise, and that contamination may not show up until craft are operational. I had the fun joy joy one day of being part of an emergency grounding at Ft. Rucker because of contaminated fuel. The cows were rather bemused by our rapid appearance among them, and we sat and watched each other while waiting to get word on if it was safe for us to start back up and head in to the barn.

Which reminds me that it’s time to share a bit with you about Bryan Gibson. Bryan was a veteran, a talented artist, and had a story idea that he was playing with that involved sabotage that would be extremely effective and not easily detectible at first. Simply put, change the tolerances in the control chips (same chips run an awful lot of stuff) on any number of systems by a decimal point. Self-driving vehicles either are suddenly wildly avoiding non-existent hazards, or slamming into buildings and other vehicles. Think of all the things with electronic controls, and imagine what happens if the tolerance is off by one decimal point. BTW, people didn’t like Bryan being OPFOR either, especially after he successfully “blew up” a base operations center/command post during an exercise. God Bless my friend, you are missed.

Die Hard had a point. If somehow an airport’s systems were hacked and the decimal got moved on some of the electronic guidance systems, life would get interesting. “Landing” a hundred feet off the ground is just as bad as a landing approach for one hundred feet under the ground. Even ten feet will be interesting to bad. Much more likely to have survivors, but the aircraft and runways involved are a different matter.

Now, for those complaining that a lot of what I’m describing won’t drive out or destroy the enemy that is invading/occupying the location. By itself, no, it won’t. But, when you attack the important things, would you rather they be guarded by alert and healthy troops, or by troops who are miserable as in cold wet, tired, hungry, etc.? The nuisance operations allow a lot of opportunity to damage morale and combat effectiveness while minimizing exposure of your people and assets. It also increases the chances of success for the larger operations while again reducing some of the odds against your people.

Besides, it can make your occupier do your work for you. For example, the Russians, and the Soviet Union before them, had a lot of “bad luck” with ammunition depots. Just look at the Severomorsk Disaster, where said bad luck went on for several days. Igor (Ivan’s not bright younger brother) is prone to sneaking smokes in places he shouldn’t on a fairly regular basis it seems. Again, cold, tired, hungry, etc. troops tend not to make great judgements. Use it and exploit it.

Now, how much of this are we seeing in the Ukraine right now? Good question. The problem is that the ‘nuisance’ ops are not going to make the news. You find them in the Telegram channels and other communications back home. Are they going on? I suspect that to some extent they are. When it comes to the larger things that are happening, it’s hard to tell if it was Igor sneaking a smoke or a nice partisan/irregular or special forces operation. Which is as it should be in many respects. If you are the invaded/occupied, it’s better not to make the news and let as much as possible be put down to “bad luck.”

Previously In This Series

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Asymmetrical Musings 2

A Chili Weekend

My breakfast this morning. Plating not perfect, but I was hungry.

It’s cold, I’m dragging, so it’s time for chili. Didn’t hurt that I found some beef (steak) that had gotten lost in the freezer and needed to be used. So, seared (sorta) on the grill, and made a cowboy-style chili. Basic recipe is at the link above. Let it cook at 250 for quite a while (3pm-5am), pulled it out this morning, stirred, and had it with egg over diced avocado for breakfast.

It was a riff on a favorite Japanese breakfast, where there was smoked fish in hot rice, and they would crack an egg over the mixture. The heat and steam from the rice cooked the egg. For today, I cracked an egg into a bowl, put hot chili over it, then put some shredded cheese on top of the chili. After waiting a minute or two, stirred and put it over the avocado.

For camping, or just for fun, another way to do it is using a real mug (not some small thing), crack an egg into the bottom, put hot chili over it to about two thirds full, then put shredded cheese. Wait a couple of minutes, stir, then top with sour cream. You can use some guacamole with the sour cream even. If the egg is not cooked to your taste, nuke for a few seconds if at home.

Before I forget, two quick ways to change-up your standard chili. First, throw in an ounce or two of unsweetened dark chocolate. It adds some depth and works well with the various peppers in chili powder as well as cumin and other spices. Think how it works in a mole sauce.

The other is to add some strong black coffee. I know people who just add the ground coffee, but I prefer to go with the liquid. Again, adds to the range of flavors.

Enjoy your weekend!