The previous post reminded me of one I’ve needed to do for a while. Some of the posts I do are to share knowledge and experience, some to share humor or joy, and some to provoke some thought. Especially if I’m not sure that things are being done and I want to push things while I am here to push them. On the latter, my concerns about the ability of humans to reproduce in space and microgravity are a good example, as I want to be sure it is something being looked at as we urgently need permanent settlements off this glorious mudball ASAP.
Right now, I want to talk a bit about command and control in the face of surprise. It is something I really hope is being looked at by Pete and company as they are taking care of a lot of things; and by the administration from a higher level. In particular, I want to look at nuclear command and control in the current environment.
A lot of our current system traces back to the pre-SAC days when Nightwatch was in Maryland and it was estimated we could have hours of notice. Even as that shrunk down, we’ve kept a lot of the basic premises past what I consider the best-buy date. As a result, I think we really, really, need to look at things and try to come up with something new.
Without going into too much detail (much less things that should not be talked about openly) our current system presumes something on the order of 30-minutes to an hour of warning of a surprise attack on the U.S. SecWar is the second man to the President for all intents and purposes, and is either with POTUS or in touch with him. POTUS is briefed on what is going on, confidence in the intel, etc. and uses the current iteration of the Single (Strategic) Integrated Operations Plan (SIOP) to order a response to the situation.
As we’ve discussed on here before in the “shall we play the game” category, the response is boiled down to a short (less than 200 characters) message that is then sent to the National Military Communications Center (NMCC) at the Pentagon who then re-codes it after confirmation, and sends it out to SAC (new version) and some other interested parties such as the Navy TACOMO planes. SAC then re-codes the order (after confirmation) and sends it out to it’s audience.
All well and good, and the two-man rule applies throughout. Well, all well and good if there is time. Are there alternatives if POTUS isn’t available or such? I’m told yes, though I have no details. Nor do I want them.
The thirty-minute window was predicated on detecting Soviet missiles being launched. Flight time from there to here is roughly thirty minutes. If we saw them fueling (Soviets/Russians use a lot of liquid-fueled ICBMs), longer period for response. That was sufficient: thirty or forty years ago.
Even twenty years ago, depressed trajectory shots from subs not too far off the coast cut that time from detection to impact to about fifteen minutes. The assurances the subs couldn’t get that close, and would be detected if they did, were deafening, though reminding me a bit of toddlers drumming their feet and yelling while having their fingers in their ears.
Today, we have massive container ships plying the waters of our country. If I can figure how to put one or more land-attack cruise missiles into a container for launch, I guarantee you others have as well. When you look at more modern drones, boy howdy are you talking the ability to get things in the air and to target with little or no detection. Iran has the capability (or did) and China has been openly experimenting with it. For all the open, think iceberg and know others have as well, a lot of others.
Thing is, if you launch like that from say a bay (and major trade route) near a capital city, you are potentially talking as little as five minutes from launch to impact. By the time the launch alert (if launch is even detected by anyone other than direct observers) gets to the right people in the military, you already have impact.
One also needs to factor in surface attack. Our borders were incredibly porous for way too long, and it is suspected that a lot more than people and drugs could have made it through. Small delivery van making the rounds in DC, passing in front of the White House, Congress, Pentagon…
I really, really do hope someone is looking at this, and looking to update the system. What we have now was good enough maybe ten years ago. Now, however… Think we need to rethink a number of things including designated survivors. I hope the world is about to get a lot more peaceful; but, you never plan for best case/most optimistic case. I will even go so far as to say we need some new designated survival centers as Camp David, Mount Weather, etc. are too well known.
Just a thought.
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