The Laughing Wolf – Page 75 – Commentary, Punditry, and More

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

If the site is slow, or you had a hard time getting here, my apologies. Right now, my traffic is bouncing between normal small/mid-size blog levels and large blog levels. We think we have things steady for now, but it looks like we may need to add resources, which costs money. I may also need to hire someone to check and redo some of the code. Since things are beyond tight, and bills are due, it may be a while before I can upgrade further. Meantime, to help with that, or to help me pick up a few preparedness items myself, please hit the fundraiser! My thanks to all who have or will pitch in! And, yes, if I could move tomorrow I would.

As Alton Brown is with things in the kitchen, I try to avoid gear that can only be used for one thing. If you’ve read the other articles in this series, or any of my other writings on preparedness (start here and work forward), it is a song you will hear over and over again. For practical preparedness, I want things that will enrich as many areas of my life as possible.

But, many of you reading this series are new to preparedness, and rightly worried we could find ourselves in a nuclear war. I hope that sanity prevails, but I’m not prepared to bank on it. Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

As I noted at the start, there is no one perfect master list of what you need. Circumstances vary. Finances vary. Local options vary. The posts give you an idea of what you should consider for each category, but what you need to get for each is up to you.

And so we come to my least-favorite topic: gear. There are people out there who are going to cheerfully tell you that you have to have this, that, or the other thing including that combo shelter, decon shower, and sauna that they just happen to sell. Reminder, if I mention it I do not sell it and I make no money off of it. Getting an honest opinion based off experience.

For preparing for a possible war, let’s start with some general gear that can have other uses. Maybe. First up, rolls of medium to thick plastic, and good tape. Large tarps also come in handy. Back when I owned a house, each room had a container with plastic, blue tarp, tape, nails, tacks, hammer, box cutter, chem-lights, and few other things tucked away in it. Why? Because if a storm or accident took out a window or windows, the last thing I wanted to be doing was trying to remember where things were, retrieve them, and then start trying to get the weather back outside. Everything needed for that, inside or out, was in the container.

In a fallout situation, you want to pick out an interior room and line it in plastic. Fallout isn’t an evil creature determined to break in and kill you. It is floating and falling out of the air. You want to use the plastic (or sheets, blankets, etc.) to encourage any that makes it into where you are to fall away from you. The more weather tight your home, the better. Bit late right now, but I’ve been pointing that out for a few decades now.

Provided your home isn’t damaged, and you have worked on making it energy efficient/weather tight, congratulations! That’s going to be a huge help. If your home is damaged, you need plastic, tarps, and other delights to seal it back up as best you can. Inside and out. Even if you are near a detonation, you have minutes to hours (depending on distance, wind, and other factors) to make repairs and take other steps. Use that time wisely.

If you don’t already have some basic hand tools (not power) such as hammers, saws, axe, mattock, pry bars, etc., get them. You may need them to get out of your home, work, or wherever you are when it goes off. You may need them to clear and make repairs. You may need them to rebuild. Good hand tools are an investment.

Now, back to gear. In this case, I would recommend a geiger counter, dosimeters, and either a gas mask or a full-face respirator. If things are bad, it helps if you can check the radiation levels around you, and monitor total exposure to you and others. Also, while you can spend a lot of money on either, the geiger counters and dosimeters that don’t do all the fancy downloads and online stuff work just as well. You are talking well under $100 for a box of dosimeter badges, and $100-$200 for a geiger counter, some of which even claim to be EMP resistant.

Now, remember that fallout isn’t an evil creature, it’s just something that will fall out of the air. Until it does, you not only want to keep it off you, you very much want to keep it out of you. Protect your mouth, nose, and eyes. There are disagreements over whether a full-face respirator or a gas mask is best. At this point, however, you are probably going to have an easier (and cheaper) time finding a decent respirator at the home supply or industrial safety store. Get spare filters.

Money tight? See if anyone is still giving away N-95 masks. That and some safety glasses or goggles (military, sport, whatever) are better than nothing. In a real pinch, keep in mind that 2-4 layers of t-shirt actually does surprisingly well in an emergency. That clear plastic you got? Tape some of it to a hat so that it hangs down a foot or so all around your head. Walk carefully so as not to kick up dust. You can also use it to improvise a poncho for going outside. Make that your outer layer, so that you can wash it and get most of the fallout off of you if you have to go outside. Remember that simply by taking off the outer layer, the experts say you can be removing 90 percent or more of any fallout that fell on you.

Another bit of gear is an emergency ventilation system. It can be a pipe with good filter, it can be something store bought and fancy, it’s up to you. But, in that secure space in the interior of your house, it’s good to have a way to bring in filtered air. I always admired Robert Heinlein’s house in Colorado, where the stair rail was a pipe with holes drilled into the bottom, which fed down to the filter and crank. Since fallout falls, having the holes on the bottom helped reduce the amount that the filter would need to deal with. There are a number of plans and products out there you can go with, just remember that if making your own or improvising on the fly it helps to have the materials ahead of time.

Oh, before I forget, one other bit of gear that if you don’t already have you need to get: a “standard” first aid kit and a trauma kit. If you need them, you are really going to need them.

Now, it’s not gear but seems to fit here as it will help you determine what you need: where are you? Are you in or near a target? Are you downwind of a target? A lot of preparation depends on the answers. There are some maps out there that can show you possible fallout patterns for the U.S. They are not guaranteed (hence having the geiger counter and dosimeters no matter what is smart) but can give you a good idea.

Clear area? Not going to have to worry as much. Under a red plume? You need to be prepared to hunker down for about three weeks according to Uncle Sugar. You are going to need more extensive prep and even materials that can block at least alpha and beta particles. Also, if you live in or near a target, remember that an air burst will be pretty much a zero-fallout event (just the neutron and then general radiation pulse from a radiation standpoint, nothing long term). Ground burst is going to kick up lots of fallout. Bunker busters/penetration bombs are nasty, but since a good bit of the explosion is underground the nasty fallout is mostly local. Yes, some over-simplifications there but accurate if not precise.

There is other gear we could talk, and I’m sure someone somewhere is going to complain about my not talking about/recommending MOPP gear, silver suits, and the like. Yes, if some of that gear showed up here, not going to object. I also think it expensive and might be hard to get on short notice. Also, MOPP gear really requires training (not so much a silversuit) to use effectively. Other than the geiger counter and dosimeters, really trying to keep this to things you can get local, hopefully easy, and not too expensive.

Now, there is one special type of gear that we will talk about later under the heading of protection. Not talking against fallout either. Yes, that is coming, perhaps even tomorrow.

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Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Conventions, Conventions

Today brings us a guest post by Romulus Wolf, looking at the confusion between the Geneva and Hague Conventions, and the confusion over which treaties to which we (United States) are signatories. It does make a difference, especially with so many, ah, enthusiastic voices this, that, and the other to be a war crime. So, enjoy the food for thought brought to you by our much appreciated guest author.

The Hague and Geneva Conventions, universally agreed upon treaties that govern much of the laws of war… Well, not so much, at least where “Universally agreed upon” is concerned.

Ratification of individual provisions is often spottier than one might expect.
And not always in the ways one might expect either. After all, it’s one thing for the landlocked nation of Chad to simply not bother to enter into 1907 Hague Convention VII. Chances are that they’re not going to be converting many merchant ships into warships. It’s another thing entirely when a major naval power not only doesn’t ratify, but actively objects to that particular convention, on the grounds that t banning such conversions would put something of a crimp in their ability to flood the seas with (legally authorized) commerce raiders1. For the moment, the US is the only serious naval power that ISN’T party. All because we took the possibility of using private warships seriously as late as 1907(2). While the US is the only major naval power of the 20^th and 21^st centuries to not be party, not all of our company among those not party to the treaty consists of landlocked nations such as Chad, Nepal, or Mongolia. We also share company with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and South Korea, all of whom have at least some potential for benefit from merchant ship conversions. Not that party to this treaty ever stopped anyone, as both Britain and Germany used merchant ship conversions as Q-ships in WWI and WWII.

Ah, but surely, as I have been informed by countless internet denizens, the ban on “Dum-dum” or expanding bullets in the Geneva convention has universal, or near universal adoptions? Well, to start with, that one is part of the 1899 Hague Conventions, Declaration IV,3, and it turns out that the adoption of this one is even more spotty. The map isn’t too dissimilar here, albeit with the very notable disappearance of all of Latin America – with the exception of Mexico – from the list of parties. For the most part, concerns about expanding bullets would seem to be a Eurasian phenomenon. The Americas, Africa, and Oceania are mostly not party to this particular treaty. So, unless you’re getting involved in a land war in Eurasia, don’t expect the bullets to be non-expanding – or, more accurately, don’t expect the laws of war to be the reasoning for non-expanding bullets, as most nations use standard ball ammo, regardless of whether they’re party to the treaty or not3.

Now, the Geneva Conventions do have rather better adoption – everyone worth noting is party to Geneva Conventions I-IV, but the additional protocols do get interesting. Additional protocol I, which does a lot, supposedly relating to the protection of victims of international conflict, has very broad adoption, but the list of non-parties is certainly quite interesting. The US, Iran, and Pakistan have signed, but not ratified it (and signature without ratification has no force), and notable non members include Turkey, Israel, India, and Indonesia. It’s sometimes easy to speculate why a nation may or may not have entered into a treaty when the treaty only limits a single or small number of actions, but with the Additional Protocols I and II of the Geneva convention, there is so much going on that figuring out anyone’s reasoning about why is probably fruitless – although it does bear noting that much of Additional Protocols I and II is duplicates of something already a part of the laws and customs of war, such as the prohibition on Perfidy (redundantly even within the protocol). The highlights of what Additional Protocol I does include bans on “works and installations containing dangerous forces”, a ban on “methods or means of warfare” that will cause “widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment”, a ban on conscription of those under the age of 15, and ensuring that mercenaries are not given protection as legal combatants (note, the definition used is quite narrow – for example, citizens of belligerents, and residents of territories under the control of belligerents are not covered by the definition of mercenary, nor is anyone not taking direct part in hostilities).

Of course, if we leave the realm of the Hague and Geneva Conventions for other treaties, things tend to be even spottier. Earlier this year, there were people getting the vapors over the fact that both Ukraine and Russia were using cluster munitions – not in the specifics of how they were used, which absolutely could have been war crimes (and probably were in at least some instances), but the fact that they were used at all – when neither nation is party to the treaty. In fact, given how spotty adoption of that particular treaty is, chances are that if a war starts up somewhere, at least one of the belligerents will not be party to the treaty.

So, why are international treaties on the subject of war lacking in universal adoption? How can nations such as the US, opt out of major chunks of both the Hague and Geneva Conventions? Well, to oversimplify how international law works, think of nations as individuals with Dissociative identity disorder (and frequently a good chunk of the rest of the DSM for flavor), who can only be bound by rules that they agree to, and each individual personality gets a vote. You can persuade, guilt trip, bribe, and use economic coercion, but in the end, some treaties simply won’t get signed without violence, or a credible threat of it 4. They can also sign with reservations, . And even when everyone involved is party to the treaty consider that in 1914 Germany, Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey were party to 1899 Hague Declaration IV,II, which banned projectiles “the sole object of which is the diffusion of asphyxiating or deleterious gases”, and we all know how THAT turned out. So, for anything beyond the basics, and especially for more technical items, take claims of it being illegal under international law with a grain of salt, especially if they can’t tell you which treaty5 it came from, and definitely have low expectations where actually following the treaty is concerned.

Sources:
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Treaty.xsp?documentId=D9E6B6264D7723C3C12563CD002D6CE4&action=openDocument

https://archive.ph/qDqpc

https://archive.ph/sIKqA

https://archive.ph/FxpDg

https://www.clusterconvention.org/

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

First, my apologies for the site being down as much as it is. I am apparently in the interesting state of being between just a regular blog and being a high-traffic blog. Some changes may be in order, and anyone caring to donate to help me pay bills and get the upgrades needed to ensure I’m up more often is much appreciated. I have bills to pay, been out of work courtesy of being struck by lightning, and am dependent for now upon the goodwill of others. Such goodwill, and the people behind it, are much appreciated.

Cooking, as well as heating, are two things often overlooked in media representations of disasters. While crouching around a fire in the ruined basement of a home heavily damaged by blast/other is a favored trope of the nihilistic dreck that passes for entertainment far too often, it sucks in real life and most will strongly avoid it. You should be one of those people.

The fact is, you should have multiple options for cooking (and heating) just for everyday disasters, much less Vladimir понимая, что у него нет члена and deciding to kick off WWIII as a result. Some quick thoughts follow.

First, practical preparedness would dictate multiple uses for any alternate cooking method. If you are just preparing now, you still want to think that way a bit. Now is a very good time to get a grill for example. I would point out that charcoal can handle wood and other fuel sources, and personally I prefer to cook that way. Choice is yours however and whatever you get will work no matter what happens. Plus, this time of year, the places that still have them tend to have them on sale, and being a cheap bas…, er, Scottish, that’s a big plus for me. If you get a propane grill, buy as many tanks as you can and fill them up. Tractor Supply Company or the like is your friend for that.

From my backpacking days, I still have a trail stove. Better than nothing, though it will not handle large cooking efforts. Small scale, it works great. Cooking for more than one, not so much. But, it works.

Now, I also have a portable chef’s stove like you see at a lot of Sunday brunches. Great piece of equipment provided it’s not cold out, as they use butane and it doesn’t do well near freezing or below. That said, mine has worked well at reasonable temperatures in the home during power outages and even in the field when I cooked for wolves. Yes, I used to do custom omelettes for older wolves at a wolf research and education center. Hit the fundraiser (note the reason) and I will share the tale on that, as you have not lived until you’ve been huffed at by a senior citizen wolf for not showing up with your stove and chef’s coat.

I also have a propane grasshopper stove. Runs pretty much no matter the temperature and can take a bit more weight than you might think. Again, have used it in the field and in the home during a power outage. Trust me, the world is much safer for me having my coffee in the morning, and I do what I can to ensure the safety of the world. It works, and you may be amazed at what you can do with one of them.

There are also multi-burner propane stoves and even ovens. They are primarily for car camping, but they work. Yes, I would love to have them and several tanks of propane for each. Feel free to hit the fundraiser and once bills are paid I will buy them. In a heart beat, along with extra butane for the chef’s stove. And, again, they are things you can use other than in an emergency. I miss camping, and look forward to getting the gear that will allow me to do at least some camping here soon.

You can also get stoves and such that run off kerosene, white gas, name-brand fuel, etc. They work and work well. Thing is, in a disaster, the name-brand fuel may be hard to come by, while propane may be a bit easier to find and transport. Your call, and having a backup to the backup is not a bad idea.

In a bad disaster, like a nuclear war, your cooking is also likely to be your heat. To beat that, look at kerosene and other heaters. You will need proper ventilation, so not recommended for fallout stage (about the first two to three weeks after boom, then dependent upon upper atmosphere winds). But, after that, or with proper ventilation, they can and do work well. I miss mine, as I sold them when I thought I was headed to Afghanistan a few years back. That you can use them to warm water, prepare tea, or do other things is a nice side benefit. Otherwise, get blankets and I recommend some of them be natural fiber like wool.

Strange as it may sound, I’m also going to suggest battery-powered smoke and CO2 detectors. Have at least one of each still in the package and stored in a basement or shielded area. After the boom, break them out and power them up. They can save your life in a true disaster, especially if you are having to improvise heating and ventilation on the fly. It’s far better to plan ahead, but if everyone had done that there would be no need for this series of articles.

Again, as with all the things discussed in this series, have multiple means and make sure some of them will work when/if you have to do the bugout boogie. That trail stove I mentioned that is not so great for fixed-base operations? Works great in the boogie though all should have one. But, this world is fallen and far from perfect: you can and will get by with just one.

And, also again, your local outdoor store is your friend as you prepare. While I still think there is time, shipping and the USPS is not your friend right now. Avoid them if you can. Also, keep in mind your local asian or other “foreign” food store. They often have a variety of cooking gear including alternatives, as well as bulk deals on rice and other items.

Tomorrow we may discuss gear a bit. I’m not a huge fan of gear and those who push it, but there are some things that come in handy at times other than disaster. There are also a few things that if there is a disaster, are well worth buying as a one-off. More soon.

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Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

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And, yes, I need to pay bills this month and buy a few things for preparedness. Please do feel free to help.

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

My apologies for being down yesterday, that’s the first real hiccup with the new host and I am very underwhelmed with how it was handled. Thing is, know what to do next time in regards service. I’m also going to be exploring some options that may help deal with the surges. Feel free to hit the fundraiser, some options cost money and there are still bills to pay. My thanks to everyone who has helped!

The sad truth is, no matter what, darkness falls. The light goes away, and most of the time we flip a switch and an electric light banishes the dark. The problem is, electricity and the lights it powers, can and will go out. There are also times where you do need just an extra bit of light to check something out.

In practical preparedness terms, my decor has always included a fair number of candles and even oil lamps. I’ve also, in the past, had a generator as well as a variety of camping lanterns electric and other. Reminds me I need to check my Coleman as I loaned it to someone and from the sounds coming from the case I suspect it is busted. Sigh. I also have flashlights of differing sizes around, and usually have a couple on me, along with spare batteries. Power goes out inside a building and the emergency lights don’t work as promised? No problem. Also, helps when you have to try to read something or find something where the light is just not right.

So, with WWIII upon your mind, my suggestion is to get a mix as some or all may work after the boom. I get nothing from them, but will HIGHLY recommend Streamlight for your flashlight and safety light needs. I’ve carried and used their tac lights for years (including weapon lights), love the large HL-5X Protac flashlight I have (get about 2,000 lumens out of it with rechargeable batteries), and have never had to contact their customer service. You can find them at most good outdoor stores (use their website to find stores near you), or you can get their stuff at a decent price online from Optics Planet. Oh, for a number of reasons, make sure to have a headband-mounted light as part of your stock. Be amazed how often they come in handy.

Candles, well, you got a lot of options but allow me to make a suggestion. Find a place that sells church candles as they are designed to burn down slowly (and not make a mess) and as such last a good long time. Put up aluminum foil (shiny side out) behind them as reflectors, and you would be surprised at how much light you can get.

NOTE: Before lighting ANYTHING after a disaster, from a cigarette to a candle, check to be sure it is safe to do so! Earthquake or nuclear bomb, gas lines can break, fuel pipelines can spring a leak, even any stored propane or gas you have around might have spilled/leaked/etc. Only after you have checked, closed valves at need, etc. should you light up. If there has been a big boom nearby, the last thing you want to do is make a smaller one to finish the job the first started.

Now, I have camping lanterns because I used to camp. I also have used them more than once for power outages. There are a number of very good LED lanterns on the market, and while I would never take it backpacking (heavy) the LE LED lantern has worked well for me. Vont lanterns are okay, but not quite what I had hoped they would be. My Coleman lantern, well, sigh. Since I rent I also don’t have a shed or other place to store lots of fuel, so… Finally, I still have a few candle lanterns around. These were used a lot by backpackers as they were a relatively safe way to use candles at a campsite and, especially, in a tent. You can even get citronella candles for them.

Now, you can also get a generator to power the refrigerator and a few lights. If you have it stored in a basement or otherwise shielded, it may/should survive the EMP. Remember, if there is warning throw your main, throw the individual circuits, and unplug everything you can. Gives you the best shot at minimizing EMP damage. Make sure to have a secure location with ventilation to set it up. And, make sure it’s a quiet generator. Very quiet.

There’s something you need to think about with lights of any type, or a generator that makes noise and provides electrical lights. Lights are going to attract pests.

Disasters bring out the best in some people, and the worst in others. Light and sound are going to bring people to you. Some may be a blessing to have around. Some are not. My advice is to take the first rule of preparation club and give it steroids. Your best option safety-wise is to run dark, run silent, and run deep. And keep watch.

Oh, and stock up on batteries. Even ones you might not use, as someone else might need them and trade is going to be a part of recovering from a major disaster. It also gives you something you can give the authorities, if they come around looking to confiscate for the greater good, without giving up anything you truly need.

And, yes, you should hide as much of everything as you can because bad people (and yes I do count government types confiscating stuff as such) are likely to be a factor. Don’t make it easy on them. What few supplies I have these days are in my landlord’s box spring as no one will ever think to look there. Not that I’ve got much these days.

So, have a mix and stock up as much as you can. At some point in the recovery from any disaster, there comes a time where you want to light a beacon to guide others out of the dark. Be ready for that time, and until then think light tight and use what you do have judiciously.

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Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

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Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Water is the item that you need almost more than any other thing in a disaster. You need clean water for drinking, you need water for washing and decontamination, you need it for cooking — you need it. Period. Yet, far too many can’t seem to handle the water going out even for a few hours.

To be truly prepared, you need three things: water, the ability to rapidly store more water, and the ability to make more potable water. You also need to learn the difference between potable, gray water, and non-potable.

Potable is water you can drink. It is clean, healthy, and what you are used to getting out of a tap, bottle, or other source.

Gray water is waste water that does not include sewage. Gray water can be filtered and purified to become potable. It also can be used to do things like flush toilets or other uses where water is needed for other than consumption.

Non-potable is water that, normally, contains sewage, chemicals, or other contaminants make it unfit for almost any use. It’s what goes into wastewater or other specialized treatment plants that clean it up enough to be released back into the world.

Violating the first rule of preparedness club, I do have both potable and gray water on hand. Part of the stock started with a job I had where I was having to carry in bottles of water to drink during the day as there was not easy access to water (or anything else). We will get into why if Jason Momoa wants to lecture me on the plastic bottles he can buzz off in a bit. Since I prefer to use distilled water for making my coffee, I have a small supply of it on hand. I also have two five-gallon paint buckets full of what is now technically gray water as it has been stored in non-sterile/non-food rated containers. Even though I added bleach to it to prevent microbial growth, it would need treatment to become potable.

The first two give me a source potable water that I can use for drinking, cooking, and other uses. I’ve had the fun joy of the water going out more than once, and more than once while I was in the shower or needing to get clean for work. My stored water has allowed me to get clean, rinse off, cook, and otherwise easily handle the minor disaster of having the water go off. The gray water has given me the ability to flush the toilet during those times. In any emergency, however, keep in mind the phrase ‘if it’s yellow, it’s mellow; if it’s brown, it goes down.” Save your stored gray water until you have to use it.

Now, since some disasters do give advance notice, you also need a way to store as much potable or treatable gray water as possible with such a warning. I have a variety of water bladders for hiking and such, water bottles/canteens, and even some collapsable containers in the car and inside. I would not mind getting several of the tub bags (WaterBob is the brand name I think) that hold 100 gallons each. Thing is, if you have warning, fill every container you can with potable water. Fill the tubs even if you don’t have a tub bag — it will need to be filtered/purified, but it is there when you need it. Use that water first, as you want to hold onto your portable supply in case you have to do the bugout boogie. Face it, your store-bought was designed to be stored, make use of that.

Now, this is a good time to discuss why I don’t care if Jason Momoa or any other celebrity doesn’t like my bottled water. Let’s say we are in a major disaster, and you are having to get into and stay in the shelter we discussed in the Nuclear 101/201 series because there is indeed fallout coming down. Unless you’ve got lots of plastic, tape, and shielding materials, your safe room does not extend to the restroom. So, you need something for that purpose.

As Dean Ing notes in Pulling Through, a five-gallon paint bucket makes a great emergency toilet. Put three garbage bags in it, and you have one you can keep using as you seal up the bags and put them out when the limit is reached. Heck, he even tells you how to make an improvised toilet seat. Allow me to strongly recommend that you only want to use it for fecal matter. Why?

Well, you really need to use any empty water bottles to hold urine. It’s secure storage, and in a really bad emergency you can (and will) drink it. In fact, you can “recycle” that way several times, but it’s diminishing returns each time. It also means you don’t have to leave your secure area to use the bathroom.

However, if you have a filter/purification system, you can process urine back into something close to pure water. The best option for such are to get the systems designed for backpackers and campers. They are light, sturdy, mobile, and very effective. If you have to do the bugout boogie, they are set to go.

You want systems that can both filter and purify, those being two different things. In fact, I mentioned yesterday that I would love to upgrade mine given advances in technology, and I would also add a couple of the large systems so that one could be dedicated to urine and such.

You can also improvise a good filtration system if you have uncontaminated sand. I would recommend getting the directions online (can’t remember if that’s one Dean got into in Pulling Through). A decent sand trap can handle some nasty stuff, and get you by.

It also won’t hurt to have some of the backpacking water bottles that have filtration and/or purification systems inside them. If we hit a fallout situation, the more times things are filtered, the better. That can also be important if you needing to purify water from tubs, urine, etc. If you don’t have one, but do have some of the water purification tablets, use them.

Also, if the taps are still working and the water is safe, refill your water bottles and other containers for as long as the water lasts. It’s when the taps stop working that it’s going to get interesting.

Also, while you are at the camping store, get two or more of those camping showers. You will want one for regular bathing if the water situation is good. You should, however, have two that can be used for decontamination. I’m not going to go into that process today, but you can use one such shower with gray water to do the first rinse of the outer gear so it is safe (as possible) to remove, and the second further in to wash the person.

You can improvise such easily enough, but they are not expensive and if you camp or hike, they are useful outside of a disaster. Just remembered how a member of my World Jamboree troop made bank by improvising one and selling hot private showers during the Jamboree. The official showers were open air (the local girls came and enjoyed the show), and the water came straight (and unheated) from a glacier-fed river (which reduced the show). Yes, he had more business than he could handle.

So, the rule of preparedness club on water is stock as much as you can. Be prepared to store as much as you can beyond that if there is warning and time. Be prepared to “make” more potable water at need. As with food, go to minimum needs at the start so you can make all you have last as long as possible. “Recycling” works, but you really don’t want to and if you do, you want to put it off as long as possible. Again, I’ve used my stocks and gear to handle the minor disasters of life more than once. Well worth the investment even if you don’t camp.

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Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

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Imhotep?

Yes, medically and otherwise I am still trying to prepare to move to the Southwest. Now, pretty much have a green light from the medical side. I’m trying to get creative on the actual move, and even on finding a place to live when I get there.

One option I can’t afford to do lump sum is to buy some land, maybe payments though. So, I’ve been keeping an eye on land around the area I’ve narrowed things down to, and have found the price ranges interesting. Right now, anything with even a trailer on it is expensive, while undeveloped land varies wildly.

The other day I found a listing for ten acres at a price that I couldn’t believe. Now, this one was different from the $1 million listing for a 3-Br house, that only after you dug down did you find out that it came with 100 acres of land and was a working ranch. This is just the ten acres, and the price was well below normal. So much so, I want to visit it just to be sure it doesn’t glow in the dark or that I’m going to find Brendan Fraser, Rachel Weisz, and Arnold Vosloo running around shooting and creating sand storms.

Renting a place for a few months to explore and shop is in many ways the best and smart thing to do. That said, to get out there and get going, nothing is off the table. Maybe find a Bubba Yaga-style trailer, tow it out there, and live in it for a bit. Find something that needs work I can do, and build up. Main thing is, get out there and get started. I really don’t want to deal with another Indiana winter, especially with how good I felt out there when I visited earlier this year.

I’ve about got expenses pared down as much as I can. The one thing I know I will need to do/get is Starlink. Your suffering via reading me must continue.

The search continues. I really need a lump sum to move, but again I’m willing to be creative. Onwards!

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Preparedness On The Fly

It seems that there is a growing interest in preparedness. In fact, I get the feeling that some out there want the magic list, that list which will tell you everything you need to buy and in what amounts (and where, when, how). If I were a grifter, I would come up with a list, make it a paid post, and augment with a bunch of “one weird trick” posts. Thankfully, I’m not a grifter.

The reason I call it a magic list is that there is no one single list for preparedness, and anyone who tells you there is one is a con artist and/or a fool. They are also probably the type Fudd who says you have to have all your firearms in .489 Harambe (or you ain’t s***!), your NVG must be a QuantumTracker 5300 with built in nuclear reactor, and that you need all this other expensive gear for which they either just happen to be a broker or get a commission.

Me? Well, I’m the guy who thinks Alton Brown is on the right track when he says the gear you get should do more than one job. Rather than doing more than one thing in the kitchen, I think that most preparedness gear should be useful for more than one reason and that your emergency stocks are there to make your life easier all the time, not just in an emergency. Since I ditched Amazon a couple of years ago, I don’t earn commissions on anything I mention here and I’m sadly not getting paid fees to endorse any particular product. The income would be welcome right now, but I would also tell you if I were getting it.

I’m also a cheap bastard, er, Scottish. Do I wish I had more gear? Yes. In fact, I can tell you at least four things I wish I had right now. I also wouldn’t mind upgrading a couple of things I already have. Believe it or not, about a grand would do most or all of it. You don’t have to spend huge amounts of money unless you are starting very late or want to spend the money. I mean if someone said “I’m giving you $X for prep” I guarantee I could spend it even if we get into the 7-figure range (land and building supplies ain’t cheap). Thing is, I don’t have to spend it. Neither do you. Pick and choose, spend wisely.

I know, I know, you want the magic list. Or at least a guide/suggestions. After all, the nuclear saber is being rattled which does get one’s attention. So, let’s break this down and start giving some suggestions so you can add to your stocks/start building some stocks.

First up, food. Frankly, with food and water you can survive almost any situation. Just don’t be like Opus the Penguin who was tasked with provisioning the Bloom County shelter and did a great job with canned this, canned that, but no can opener.

Aside from having several can openers, church keys, and other delights, there are two bits of food for thought in regards your list. First, buy things with a long shelf-life. If you are careful, you can get things that have a best buy date two or more years out, which means they are good for a year or three beyond that. Second, buy a range of foods as food ennui can become a problem if you are hunkered down for a while.

By buying things that I like to eat, even if only on occasion, it not only prepares me for emergencies but also for day-to-day living. It gives me options for meals, for creating meals, and more. Rather than being something that I never use, it becomes something I use on a more regular basis, which in turn provides turnover, which means I constantly have things that are good for potentially several years out. I just simply have more of it.

While I do have some things in glass, I do get more in cans and other non-breakable containers. I do this simply because too many disasters may not be kind to glass, no matter what precautions I take. Even so, between being able to can items, and buying some things that only come in glass, I do have a fair bit of glass at any given time. So, no, I’m not one of those Fudds who is going to scream at you for having glass. Having items in glass, and extra glass canning jars, is a good thing. You just need to take some steps to try to keep it safe.

As for going out and buying cases of MREs or freeze dried, I have some but not huge amounts. I think it a very good idea to have at least some MREs or equivalent (British versions are quite good; have heard good things about those from Italy and Chile; and just from rumors want to try Malaysian) on hand. Thing is, they are fully self-contained meals: full meal, heating for same, utensils, etc. Given all the added vitamins and minerals, one meal gives you all you need for a day. That can come in handy in an emergency, and is essential if you have to do the bugout boogie.

In terms of freeze dried, I’ve mainly focused on breakfast. That’s for a number of reasons, including that my regular diet is very low carb, which means I eat a lot of eggs and some meat. Both of which are going to be in short supply if a disaster hits. I really do want/need more, but it is expensive, so get as I can. I think I do have a couple of what I term FI freeze dried meals, but they are for that FI moment or if I have to do the bugout boogie. Or go camping.

I also have things like powdered whole milk because, just like eggs, milk and other refrigerated items are going to be in short supply. Canned and dry milk, juices, etc. are a good thing to have. You are not just eating normal meals, you need to be sure you are getting the full array of nutrients, vitamins, and minerals. You should be doing so anyway, slacker, but it’s especially important in an emergency. Reminder to myself, I need to get into supplements (and certain regulatory efforts underway) another day.

Speaking of powders, one thing I would suggest augmenting in your pantry are things like flour, corn meal, pasta, and things dependent upon grains. I would also stock up on things for baking (powder, yeast, etc.), and on things that are imported, like chocolate, coffee, tea, etc. If you read through the posts here, neither I nor Royal think there will be starvation in the U.S. but things could get rather lean. Elsewhere in the world, it’s quite likely to be bad. Also, the rail strike may be back on, and if you think the grocery store shelves are expensive and messed up now…

Another quick thought is don’t forget the soups and even some soft drinks. I don’t do soft drinks unless I’m sick or having to do prep for a colonoscopy. Having some on hand has come in handy not only for that, but the aftermath of the unscheduled open heart surgery and a couple of other visits to the ER. As for soups, they can be a complete (and even tasty) meal, and are a source of liquids to help keep you hydrated.

So, no grocery list per se, just a category list. I have eclectic tastes, so my pantry could already handle a variety of cuisines. I’ve hit a few of the various ethnic and international markets to spread that out a bit. Two things to consider are that you need to go to minimum rations immediately until you see how things are going to go, and you need to live the first rule of preparedness club: don’t tell people you are prepared. I could, sadly, easily see my landlord giving up any stocks of food he knew about to the government or others in the wake of a disaster. Others of ill intent might decide to liberate your stocks since they didn’t plan ahead. Be smart, be safe, be quiet, and be prepared.

By the way, if anyone reading this is involved with field rations for your respective country or region, and is willing to send me samples to try (and augment my stocks), I will be glad to do a review. Heck, I will even do it on our MREs. Maybe do some videos or such on Rumble. I will decline any Russian though (even when they have field rations, one of the first things Russian troops have done is loot grocery stores and restaurants. There’s a reason), but am open to most others.

For those wondering about the equipment list I mentioned earlier: portable generator, geiger counter, dosimeters, plastic and tape. I would like to upgrade my field cooking gear and my water purification gear. With all that has happened since getting hit by lightning, and needing to have my shoulders regrown or replaced, I fear my days of backpacking and remote camping are behind me. That said, I would not mind a shift to car/drive-in camping. There have been some very good advances on water purification, and I’ve seen a couple of items for cooking that I would love to add to the arsenal.

Tomorrow I think I will get into water and cooking a bit. Final note, be sure to include hot sauces in your food prep. You’d be amazed at what you can get down with enough hot sauce.

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The Viper On The Table

I love this analogy by Wretchard! It is a marvelous turn of phrase that cuts to the essence of what the necromancer has thrown down before all. Not surprising that he did so, as you really should be reading him on twitter or other sites.

I must disagree with him, however, when he says nobody knows what to do with it. I touched on this a bit yesterday, but today I shall be blunt.

Everyone knows what must be done with the summoned abomination, and the necromancer who summoned it. They must be destroyed, and it must be done in a way that makes clear what will happen to any who try to summon it again.

The fear, by both those at the table in opposition to the necromancer and those he represents, and by those who increasingly realize that letting him represent them was a very bad mistake, is that the serpent might do more than quiver, and strike many before it is brought down. Even the necromancer is in fear of this right now, as his abomination threatens him as well.

The best thing would be for those who the necromancer alleges to represent to deal with him themselves. Such would be bloody and brutal, but contained if they destroy the necromancer and his own before he can unleash the beast. The next best, for actions by those around the table being threatened to eliminate both threats before they can react, is fraught with peril for all.

Yet, action must be taken. The threat is made and the beast summoned. If the Necromancer gets away with it, he will be emboldened and will start with it the next time he acts. Worse, other necromancers elsewhere will seize upon it, and the end results may well end up being worse than a nuclear war now. For it is a given that everyone and their brother will be developing or obtaining nuclear and other special weapons for use by their necromancers unless an example is made.

As I said, the best option is for his own people to deal with the Necromancer themselves, and ensure the serpent does not rise. Otherwise, there are few options and none will be palatable or pleasant. Choose wisely.

I also agree with Wretchard on this take, which is a bit of a play on Heinlein. Earth is the cradle of humanity, and it’s past time we left the cradle. For even if the proper example is made, there will be another necromancer somewhere (possibly many) who will be convinced they are smarter and faster, and will try this again. The serpent can take many forms, and that many of those can easily turn on their alleged masters and escape them to truly destroy the world is lost upon the mad.

It is only by spreading out in our own solar system and beyond that we can survive. The mad can still destroy many, but not all. Choose wisely.

For now, pray for that which is right to be. And prepare. More on that in a few.

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60-40

The question that continues to be asked is if we are going to have a nuclear war. The honest answer to that is: I don’t know. There are a large number of variables and based on where everything is this morning, I think the odds might be as high as 40-60 right now.

The real question people should be asking is if we will have a nuclear incident. I use that phrase deliberately, as there is an option on the table that is either being ignored or overlooked. Right now, I think the odds of a nuclear incident are 60-40.

There are a lot of factors in play. Here’s my take on just a few of them.

First, to say there are cracks emerging in Russia is an understatement. It would appear that a number of factions are not just jockeying for position, but are attacking each other. There are reports indicating that Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, is going after Shoigu, head of the military. If it is indeed a fight between them, I might put $10 on Shoigu given his experience with infighting. Where it gets interesting is with the rumors that Kadyrov is joining in to go after Shoigu. For a number of reasons, Kadyrov is the king keeper or king maker in Russia right now. If he joins in, my money is no longer on Shoigu to win.

Second, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t matter. People can riot and hang Putin in effigy in multiple cities in districts outside of Moscow, and it really won’t matter. The only city for which that does not hold true is St. Petersburg. What happens in St. Petersburg has a tendency to slide over into Moscow. It’s real only if it happens in Moscow.

Third, there are some very interesting, and extremely unconfirmed, rumors of various factions shifting positions (as it were) in Moscow. Are they looking to perhaps push things along, or just preparing for Vladimir to no longer be in power? And, yes, Vladimir’s position is no longer stable even with the lies, propaganda, outside troops, and cultural issues.

Fourth, this brings us to the situation on the ground in the Ukraine. The Russians flat out have been humiliated, and it’s not over yet. Even with throwing conscripts into the cauldron (without training or even working gear in some cases), odds are good the Russians are going to get pounded. Which actually puts things back to where they were early on with the Russians limited to trying to terrorize the civilian population. Keep in mind, they see this as a legitimate target, because you either are a good Russian at heart pining to be a part of Russkiy Mir, or you are a Nazi who deserves to be raped/tortured/maimed/killed/etc. Obviously, since they have resisted the heroic Russian army of liberation…

Fifth, Vladimir is going full-Hitler. He is taking over more and more of the decision making, and otherwise trying to run everything. Didn’t work for Hitler, won’t work for him. There are already signs of some extremely poor decisions being made, including using up extremely limited stockpiles of precision weapons on non-precision targets (Xi smiles). I really hope anyone who reads me is also reading the ISW, Stephen Green, and others for combat and other analysis, and Kamil Galeev for his insights on Russian culture, history, and more.

There is more, of course, but those are the high notes, which bring me to my trying to read the tea leaves. Here we go.

Based on his latest statement, Vladimir appears to actually be trying to slow walk both an escalation to nuclear or special weapons, and to temper the expectations of his hardline followers. Part of this could be from a small bit of reality about his military breaking into the bubble in which he and so many of the oligarchia live, but I wouldn’t count on it. I suspect it is more from pressure from fellow oligarchs who realize a nuclear war would be bad for business and that while they don’t mind others dying for the Rodina, they object to the fact that they would die.

The layered response discussed means, however, that those evil Ukrainian civilians are going to get what he thinks they deserve as often as possible. Setbacks, defeats, anything happening on territory that he even faintly imagines might have belonged to Russia at some time in another reality means attacks on civilian targets.

As he steps up the escalation, however, it also increases the chances that we might see the use of non-nuclear special weapons. For all that the U.S. has equated use of such as being the same as the use of a nuke, reality is that we have never responded as such when they have been used previously. So, Vladimir is quite likely to consider such use on that basis, and to react badly if we do suddenly decide to enforce our convention. He will pitch a public tantrum no matter what, that’s a given.

Vladimir could decide to do a demonstration, as it were. Sal, aka CDR Salamander, has a very interesting take on such. Back in the days of extensive testing of systems and weapons, the goal (on our side) was to have at least 80 percent of the systems and weapons work if the button(s) were pushed. Right now, I’m wondering if even 20 percent would work on any side. No, I really don’t want to find out but Sal’s take is a good one.

There have been a number of highly-realistic wargames done where a tactical nuke was used. I would feel much better if anyone could name one where it did not end up going strategic. Yes, a number of limited scenarios (and extremely unrealistic larger games) have avoided it. Just not the ones based on reality. With calm, competent, stable, and intelligent leadership, I think it can be avoided. With the Regency, Vladimir, Xi, Macaroon, et al, well, we may be having to pin our hope on ol’ 20 percent (or less).

As scary as that is, let me give you something else to think about. By luck we avoid the use of a nuclear weapon by anyone for any reason. The fact is, we can’t give in to such blackmail, otherwise the use of such will never end. Sanity would be for everyone to realize that, and step back. Yet, Vladimir is facing a humiliating defeat not just for himself, but for the dream of Russkiy Mir. If he can’t have the Ukraine, no one will.

The last cruise missiles go in, carrying conventional warheads. They hit at every nuclear power plant in the Ukraine. The goal is not to hit the reactors themselves, but to take out power and control. The idea being to create a situation at each that makes Chernobyl look like nothing. Hit Chernobyl to damage the shield. Vladimir seems to have already hinted at this once, and it is not something I would put past him. Particularly since he’s been playing that very game at Zaporizhia for weeks now. In fact, I would expect a massive maskirova based on what he’s been doing there to go with it, to try to shift the blame elsewhere. How would we react to that?

What can we do? Two things. First, pray. I mean that very sincerely. Second, prepare. It’s going to be a long nasty winter around the world, no matter what happens, so if you haven’t gotten into practical preparedness now is a good time. If you aren’t familiar with preparedness or my version of practical preparedness, start here and work forward. While the potential number of disasters is infinity-minus-2, there are only three things that can be damaged and that makes planning and preparations much easier. Even if we avoid any form of nuclear incident in or because of the Ukraine, being prepared is likely to help make this winter easier.

Meantime, I don’t expect things to go ballistic in the next few hours. In fact, with what Vladimir said today, I see some breathing room as it were. Possibly several weeks worth. I think before we get to any form of go/nogo situation, we will see a number of things happen.

First, I expect to see Belarus invade the Ukraine along with Russian troops. This week or next week at the latest. Vladimir desperately needs that second front to draw troops away from the east and south. There are a number of reasons for Lukashenko to join in, including his own ambitions. Ed Morrissey has his take up at Hot Air. I will note that Lukashenko has cultivated a bumbling, country bumpkin image with Russian media and leadership, and an amazing number of them seem to be stupid enough to buy it. He’s used that image to stick a finger in Vladimir’s eye before and get away with it. He’s joining in, but don’t expect slavish devotion as his Number 1 is not Vladimir or his goals. Oh, and I think his birthday gift of a tractor to Vladimir was very well played. ISW does not agree with me on this, and I hope they are right and I’m wrong.

Second, I expect to see Russia lose more ground in the east and south. How much is going to be the question. Vladimir will be looking for any chance to claim that something was done on Russian territory so he can hurt more civilians, so expect to see the Ukrainians fight smart.

Third, I would expect to see MOPP gear show up for Russian/Wagner troops. Open question for any OSINT who read this: is anyone seeing any MOPP gear with any Russian troops anywhere? Heck, is anyone seeing any MOPP gear anywhere? Right now, the Russians don’t seem to be able to supply uniforms, cold or wet weather gear, or much of anything else. Even with the Russian attitude towards the life of the troops (eh, we can get more), you are likely to get squeamish commanders who are going to balk at using any special weapon if it’s going to kill more of their troops than the enemy. So, I would expect to see at least some attempt to protect the Russian troops first.

Fourth, I would expect to see several levels of escalation first. After all, Vladimir wants to make the case that he tried everything else first. That it also allows him to study the board and see if his threats are having the intended effect is important too.

So, no boom today. Not seeing it tomorrow either. The Day After? We will see.

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Whew, Good Visit

One of the side effects, if you will, of being hit by lightning is that you tend to collect doctors and other medical types. At least for a while, I had my GP, a cardiologist, a cardiac surgeon, a couple of different rehab people, a neurologist, the doctor who did my cognitive evaluation, my ENT, a dermatologist, and even a podiatrist. I feel like I may be leaving one or two out, but you get the idea.

We have spent a bit over a year now trying to get everything fixed, make sure nothing else needs fixing or is trying to develop, and otherwise slowly trying to get the number of medical types back down to a manageable level (by my standards). We’ve had to rule out a couple of types of cancer, identify and deal with issues in my digestive system, monitor shoulder joints that need replacement (I really want the funds to try some regenerative medicine), confirm the amount of hearing loss and the nerve death associated with some of it, do cognitive and physical therapy, and other such fun things.

When I get asked why I haven’t yet moved, I tend to point to the above. I will also point out that my current insurance will not transfer out of state, and within the limits of what it covers, has been a champ. Their call center rates a 10 to the negative 14 Tor on customer service, but they have paid the bills and even gotten creative on a few things much to my surprise. I suspect that one thing they did not only benefits me but earns them extra money, but I can’t complain about it.

Let’s look at the good news, and give some thanks. First, I’m alive. By all rights, I really should not be alive.

Second, the heart seems to be doing very good after the open heart surgery and the three procedures done. I’m not up to weights and such (working towards it) but am to the point I am walking several times a week; and, as much as possible, 3 or more miles on each walk. Thanks to the new shoes you helped me get, I’m hoping to do another 7+ mile walk here soon. I still tire easily and am nowhere close to being able to do all I used to do, but I am working to get to as close to that as I can. May take a few years, but….

Third, we did rule out a number of bad things as possibilities, though it also meant confirming a condition that effects the digestive system. There may be some other in there, but it’s not major (yet). Also, thanks to this one, I may not need another colonoscopy for five years instead of three.

Fourth, the cognitive therapy has given me some coping mechanisms for the short-term memory issues. Things can derail, but if I stay with routine and am careful, most days are not too bad. I joke that I have the short-term memory of a mayfly, but lists and such get me by much of the time. Just far too easy to lose the train of thought multiple times in an hour. They think all of the long-term memories are still there, just scrambled for now. I liken it to my memories being a room full of filing cabinets, where someone went in, pulled drawers at random, and dumped them — then the jerk cut on a fan. They say my mind should heal in about 3 years or so, and then we can make sure nothing was lost.

Fifth, and final for today, my liver, kidneys, such seem to be in good shape. I honestly would not have been surprised at more internal damage, but God was merciful. Given the amount of power that went through my body and left a small melt trail over the sole of my shoe, it really should have been worse. To say I’m grateful it’s not is an understatement.

Oh, before I forget, I’m down to just two doctors monitoring me on a regular basis! Now, to get them to coordinate their blood draws…

For almost all these things, except for the digestive track issues, time will heal. It may take 3-5 years, but if I keep working at it there is hope for improvement. It just takes time, patience, and a bit more.

In the learn-to-live-with-it department, the hearing damage is permanent and a hearing aid or advanced system isn’t going to do anything. Both ears took a hit on general hearing and tinnitus levels, but the right side (where the lightning hit) saw all of my high-frequency hearing lost, and the nerves for that range are dead. The ENT wants to do yearly tests to be sure there is not a continuing drop-off and monitor. Something I didn’t mention earlier is that long-term effects are possible in all areas. Hence, the monitoring by the GP and cardiologist (and ENT). In some ways, this bothers me the most since I lost up to 50 percent of my hearing range on one side. It makes things sound different and it throws off my ability to locate sources of sounds. Heck, it even makes things sound different since I can’t hear all of the sound. Bites on music. The digestive track issues are something I will just have to live with too.

In the your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine department, there are the shoulders, the lower back, and other issues related to an interesting life. The lightning strike has not helped some of them, as I’ve had to change up how I do a number of things which puts more stress on them. Net result, the shoulders are getting worse faster than hoped. Painful and limits arm movement. Not amused. The back, well, we will see.

And, yes, I’m giving the best possible case here. I am, at heart, an optimist. A cynic and a few other things, but still an optimist who has given thanks that he is still here. At best, I’m going to be sidelined for 3 years if all goes well, and if it doesn’t go well, well… Thankfully, I can still reason and write though not as well or as fast as I used to be able to do a story. What used to take an hour tends to take a fair bit more than that these days. Even then, there are likely to be typos and such: some by me, some by autocorrect, and some I’m going to blame on the landlord’s cats just because. Furry little stalkers.

With today’s visit and results, I see a way forward on moving. I thought I did earlier, but now that both docs are showing clear, much better. I can and will hope for the best on everything. Onwards.

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