I’ve noted for a while now that I considered Kadyrov to be the kingmaker in ongoing Russian politics. Almost fanatically loyal to Vladimir, he has benefited from Vladmir’s largely successful efforts to integrate him into the current Kremlin political structure. That has required a level of ongoing effort by Vladimir, as not everyone is fond of Kadyrov’s past or the fact that even before the “coup” attempt he had 1,000 troops stationed next to the Kremlin for the use by and protection of Vladmir. During the “coup” he was bringing a lot more troops in to protect Moscow, the Kremlin, and Vladimir — and key Russian figures moved none.
If you are not familiar with the relationship between Russia and the Chechens, let’s just describe it as interesting. There’s long been a push for a ‘free Chechen republic’ and a lot of friction (massive understatement) and not just in the last few decades. Add to it that Vladimir cemented his hold on power by blaming the Chechens for the apartment building bombings (done by the FSB) and fomenting a war. Despite all this, things worked out for Kadyrov to become a Vladimir loyalist and a major power player in Kremlin politics. Or, possibly, former major power player.
Keep in mind that I don’t think Vladimir is anywhere near the top of his game anymore. In fact, I continue to see signs of personal and political decline. Pringle’s “coup” seems to be accelerating the latter. Back to this in a minute.
For all the publicity, Pringles was a vassal to a vassal of Vladimir within the power structure, for all intents and purposes. For all he had turned into a billionaire and small-time oligarch, he was not the key player he (and most corporate media) portrayed. For all that he was a staunch supporter of Vladimir, his first love was to himself. To build the empire he wanted, and to enjoy fully the lifestyle he very much enjoyed (the uniformed figure camping with the troops was mostly for show IMO), he advanced by parroting others. He echoed Vladimir extensively. It has also been noted that when Kadyrov spoke, Pringles echoed.
This was particularly true in regards criticism of the MoD and the general (cough) incompetence in regards the war. For all that both wanted to put the blame for issues squarely on the MoD, and not them or their troops, I think that Kadyrov, more than Pringles, was unhappy at excess casualties and other issues. Kadyrov was, however, far better at playing the game than Pringles, and despite some apparent attempts to get Pringles to calm down, Pringles launched his coup while trying to frame it as focused on the MoD and not Vladimir, and perhaps even within certain circles to present it as an effort to protect Vladimir from those who were effectively betraying him.
That didn’t fly, however, and both Vladimir and Kadyrov both condemned the “coup” and labeled Pringles as a backstabbing traitor. Interestingly enough, both have come out faintly praising/praising Pringles and noting that he let his ambitions get the better of him. The faint was, of course, Vladimir. The not-so-faint was Kadyrov. It is the degree of the difference of the praise that may be very interesting.
As an aside, yes, I do believe Pringles is dead. If it were some sort of Hollyweird “WitSec” effort, it would require not only extensive plastic surgery for Pringles and Utkin, but also personality transplants. I don’t think it psychologically possible for either one of them, even with new faces and identities, to simply go live a quiet life somewhere.
Over the years, I’ve met two people in witness protection who exemplify what I’m talking about. In the first case, when I first graduated I worked at a large bookstore, where we had an “interesting” older female customer. Always trying to pull fast ones, total PITA. Turns out, she was doing interesting things at her business, which led to law enforcement investigation(s), which led to the story coming out in the paper that she was in witness protection and they had to know she was scamming people even before they moved her again. The other was an accountant turned restaurant owner who opened an Italian place where I was living at the time. Actually, some of the best Italian I’ve had in the U.S. His fast one involved (possibly among other things) not paying the witholding for his employees. Again, as law enforcement moved in, he was moved out as he really was an accountant who had testified against the mob.
Is there anyone out there who believes Pringles and Utkin could just go off and not do something similar? Coming from the Russian government, the DNA evidence is automatically suspect, but it is out there. That said, lot of circumstantial evidence around that they are indeed dead. While it wasn’t Vladimir’s normal extra-gruesome death for those he feels have personally betrayed him, it was a stark reminder that even if you are surrounded by troops pretty much 24-7 as well as security he can and will get you. That’s a message on more than one level, and with more than one target.
Which ties in to previous discussions on smart moves and why I expected the hit to happen later. Russia was using Wagner to great advantage in Africa, even more so than in the Middle East. I honestly expected to see them use them even more before striking. I think two things may have changed that calculus. First is Niger, where Wagner had extensive involvement. Did Pringles push some things against orders to curry favor and build back power? Interesting questions. There are, of course, rumors of that and other things that would have not sat well with Vladimir or other power players. Second is that Vladimir took some serious internal political hits during and after the coup. He very much needs propping up/shows of strength right now.
The whole “push some things” holds true in many regards to Kadyrov as well. Kadyrov moved troops against the “coup” both in occupied Ukraine and in Moscow. Keep in mind this so-called coup had silent backers in Moscow and beyond, and not just in one or more major players. More than ever I think it had silent partners in several key players and a number of oligarchs outside the regular power structure.
Keep in mind it doesn’t take much of a mispeak to make Vladimir suspicious of you, especially these days. Now, look back over the last year of what Kadyrov has said and compare it to Pringles (including his echoes of Kadyrov). Think it would take much to make an increasingly paranoid Vladimir see Kadyrov as a threat?
There are a lot of people who are not Vladimir supporters who would have good reason to encourage it. Think about those silent backers of the so-called coup. Those who would like to see Vladimir out of power (and/or dead).
Which makes it more than interesting that opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov appears to be warning that going after and/or eliminating Kadyrov would be a mistake (possibly of epic proportions). Doing so in public and in private apparently. Veerrrrry Interesting.
Which brings up another point. I’ve taken some flack in the past for pointing out that we do have an obligation to Ukraine on defense (though we totally reneged on it in 2014), that leaving Russian aggression unchecked is a bad idea, but that our current efforts are neither smart nor sustainable and could lead to escalation. I also remain convinced that any unilateral enforced peace is a bad idea that will only lead to something magnitudes worse within a fairly short period of time. The only way to ensure long-term peace is for the current Russian Federation to come apart (and Russkiy Mir get a wooden stake through it) — which could lead again to very bad things happening if NATO/West/China/Other were to do it. Yes, as previously discussed China has great reason to make this happen. Ability is a different issue, but they do have the interest.
Things could still go sideways with ease if it happens from within. That said, the “coup” brought out a number of fault lines within the Federation. More than one region apparently told Vladimir that he was on his own. Others were a little more creative, but assistance was not guaranteed shall we say.
Now we have a situation where RUMINT says Vladimir is no longer able, or possibly willing, to continue to spend the effort to keep Kadyrov integrated into the power structure. A power structure in which a number of people don’t like or trust Kadyrov or the Chechens. Can Kadyrov hold his own?
What happens if Gudkov and others are right, and either Vladimir or elements of the Kremlin power structure move against Kadyrov? What will the Chechen republic do?
I don’t think it will go the way many appear to be thinking it will. First up, the power structure of the Kremlin was badly off on the whole invasion of Ukraine, as well as on the capabilities of the Russian military. Second, our own top political and military leadership has yet to be right on matters involving the Ukraine. In fact, they’ve been as badly wrong as the Kremlin leadership, if not more so.
Which is why I sincerely hope we don’t go fishing in those troubled waters, as our current leadership couldn’t successfully organize a drinking party in a distillery, and have to have sex lying on their back as they can only fuck up. While it appears China and Iran may both be trying to fish in these waters already, there are internal dynamics at play that I think may backfire on them as well. For now, I’m more inclined to sit back, wait, watch, and hope that despite the odds that our so-called experts will do the same. The issue of the Russian Federation breaking up may well take care of itself for us.
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