Intelligence – Page 3 – The Laughing Wolf

The Termites Are In The Woodwork

I’ve waited to write about the Chinese balloons for several reasons, including the fact that I really didn’t want to post a mass of invective in place of reasoned thought. The invective is still there, but I have it on a leash for now. Sort of.

I will start by saying that right now I don’t believe a word of what is being said by any branch, part, or employee of the Federal government — nor should you. Until it is confirmed by a reliable and reputable source, don’t trust it or them.

Have balloons been used for intelligence work before? Yes, pretty much since those wacky French brothers got things going on this side of the world. Did the Chinese float three across the U.S. under Trump? No. That story is deflating fast, but not fast enough.

Are balloons being researched for a range of options including aimed delivery of precision weapons, drones, or even chemical/biological payloads? Smart money says yes. Are they the optimal platform for such? Magic Eight Ball says maybe. There are a host of factors that go into such an assessment, and for a number of reasons I will just stick with maybe for now.

Anyone telling you that balloons are no different that satellites and it’s no big deal is a liar and a complete and total idiot to boot. Satellites are moving, and moving fast. There are limits to what they can observe, when they can observe, and on the data they collect. A balloon can be a remarkably steady platform, especially if it can be steered and controlled. Using modern optics, hyperspectral and multispectral imaging, and other sensing systems (and you can pack a lot on a truss that size), you would be amazed at the data that can be collected. Especially if you have nuclear thermocouples or other systems for the real power hogs so that solar can go to other systems including steering.

An amazing amount of data. Data that was collected and transmitted back to China.

Notice also that corporate media, and far too many others, have pretty much dropped coverage of the fact that there was at least one other balloon acknowledged. If you can find any coverage, go back and note just how carefully the government didn’t say where it had been, much less exactly where it was located at that time other than Latin America — which could be anywhere from Mexico to Tierra del Fuego. There were “unconfirmed” reports from non-governmental sources that indicate it was possible that balloon had travelled down the West Coast. You know, where all the military bases that would be responding to actions by China are located.

As it is, the government and corporate media are dropping like a hot potato any mention that the balloon we did finally shoot down may have spent three days loitering over Malmstrom AFB, which happens to house the majority of our Minuteman missiles. Among other things. Look at all the bases and such along the flight path of the balloon. Want to place a bet that if the data is not already being shared with Moscow, it soon will be?

And let’s not forget that the balloon(s) were allegedly not picked up before they were over the Aleutian Islands. If that is true, that would indicate that multiple systems failed in their job. No one, not two, but multiple systems. Also, note that neither was shot down right then either over ocean or in a remote area, despite the violation of American airspace and international law. Instead, they were allowed to continue on and complete their mission.

Dereliction of Duty is the politest term I can use for what has happened. This applies to our military and our civilian leadership. The alleged reason for trying to cover up the incursion is beyond belief in terms of competent, professional, and honest leadership. For the Biden Regency, par for the course. Hey, this is an unprecedented and catastrophic intelligence breach, but better that than embarrassing the Chinese. You know how sensitive they are.

There are no good words to describe how bad the damage is to our military and national defense. As bad as we think it is, I suspect it is even worse than we realize at this time.

The military leadership that failed to detect or take action to prevent the unprecedented overflight should all suck-start their sidearms and apologize to their ancestors in person. The civil leadership that did the same should also go apologize to theirs in person as well.

That said, if the key people involved in this had been acting in the best interest of the United States of America, in full honor of the oath sworn to the Constitution and the Republic, this would not have happened. That it did happen makes it rather clear that one or more people in positions of power were not working for or in the best interest of the United States. If they are not working for us, then for whom are they working? The answer seems pretty clear to me.

The termites are in the woodwork, and the cockroaches are in the walls. The gates all open from the inside, and we have allowed the horse inside the walls.

Quick Thoughts On Sources

I probably need to flesh this out more, but after yesterday I want to get something up on sources I read/follow regularly.

First, I check my intel list on Twitter. Perfect, no; but, the sources in it tend to be good in their specific areas. I add and remove as needed, and am always looking for other good sources around the world. Suggestions welcome.

I do often pay close attention to the Institute for the Study of War. For news and analysis StrategyPage is a good read. When it comes to understanding the thought, philosophy, mores, and history behind Russia and its dealings with the world, read the works of Kamil Galeev. There are a few more, but this is a good start.

For analysis, commentary, and discussion, I do follow Stephen Green at Instapundit and Vodka Pundit as much as I can. Instapundit is a good read under any circumstances with excellent commentary and more by Glenn, Sarah, and others. I also follow the authors at Hot Air, as they too are a good group overall and offer a variety of perspectives.

There are others, of course, such as Commander Salamander for naval and more. Also glad to see the DiploMad back. Wish more of the early milblogs and similar were still up, pay attention to those that are.

Most of my other regular and semi-regular reads tend to be about writing, general politics, science, and such.

More soon.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

For Some, A Scary Question

A thought to share this morning. Yesterday looked at some strange goings on here and in Russia, and then looked at what that could mean if they were organized and coordinated activities. It is a scary thought that either or both are such, as it implies some interesting things.

Want to know what is even scarier? What if one or both are not organized and coordinated events? What if the fires are spontaneous acts by people who disagree with what is happening, and decide to act on their own? That would tend to say interesting things about the bandwidth of members of the Russian public who are not happy, are willing to act, and who feel they have no other means to express their displeasure.

Are any of you old enough to remember back in the latter days of the Soviet Union when the workers had enough, and began being deliberately sloppy in their work? If I remember correctly, it wasn’t so much an organized event but rather people having enough and deciding to go John Galt in an interesting way. Again, if I remember correctly, which I can’t swear to, it brought at least some token changes even as it fully cemented the idea of ‘As long as they pretend to pay me, then I will pretend to work.’

Even if my memory is off, and it may well be given the lightning hit, there still is a very valid question here. What is more scary? The idea that the Ukrainians have the bandwidth to do such a campaign across Russia, or that enough people disagree with the government that they are willing to take these actions on a spontaneous basis? If the latter, it suggests there is a very fertile field for others to plant in…

Bandwidth

This morning’s post reminds me of some of the discussion in these posts, and that many are missing the real lesson of the Russia-Ukraine war: it’s the bandwidth stupid. That’s also the key to what appears to be going on in the U.S. and in Russia. In both cases, the bandwidth in terms of intelligence resources and the ability to transmit data and information is both broad and deep.

To do what appears may be happening requires several things, including competent leadership and planning. Let’s take a quick run down at what it takes to do coordinated, widely-distributed, sabotage and asymmetrical warfare.

I’m not going to sit here and play agent/operative word games that are the hallmark of the amateur. It’s bullshit to start with, as the fact is what you need are assets. Assets most likely are going to be a mix of your people (covert or even overt), locals, and others who may or may not be local per se but are resources you can use at need. Fact is, the best assets are often those who don’t realize they are an asset.

Just look at how the Soviet Union manipulated environmental and other groups not all that long ago. Masters at doing things at one or two removes, and even at pointing the finger elsewhere so that some of those being manipulated thought they were working for were someone else. The CCP is reported to be not shabby at that as well. Would we do something like that? Why, heaven’s forfend you dare make such a suggestion! *innocent blink*

The various do-good groups (environmental, justice, climate, etc.) would still appear to be easy targets of manipulation, IMO. You can do the same with ultra-nationalists of all stripes, but it’s a bit harder to put things at several removes. With the first set, the support may come from such a group in another country with strong backers, who are in turn being backed by an international group, who is funded by various NGOs and others, who in turn are being funded and controlled by yet others. NGOs are wonderful ways to isolate things, FYI.

Purely hypothetically, let’s say Inga believes passionately in her do-good cause. Bit of a natural leader, she gets selected for extra training, then participation in conferences and other leadership exercises that reinforce her beliefs, solidifies them, and expands on her natural leadership capabilities. Ingrid, on the other hand, is just as passionate as Inga but is less innocent, and it is clear she understands that peace and light may not be all that’s needed. She gets selected for other training, and then recommends a few others who also realize that sweetness and light may not be enough. Using local resources, they obtain and stockpile items that are not sweet, shall we say, that are available for those like them who have had the special training, or even by those who come in later and avoid all association with the group (it’s called deniability folks).

Other members of the group gather information related to the cause, from who’s building what and where to possible proposed legislation related to the do-good cause. All of this gets passed up the chain, where Inga and Ingrid both hear it and pass it along — up different chains. Light and dark. All hypothetical of course.

Technical means can tell you a great deal; but, to really know what’s going on, where the opportunities for psychological or other pushes are located, and other people-centric things are, you have to have HUMINT. I’ve discussed this a bit before here, here, here, here, and here. There’s more, but the fact is tech isn’t going to tell you how often Ivan sneaks out for a smoke at the ammo dump, or that Olga might be willing to drop an object where she works that (she thinks) promotes a good cause, or that John is happy to take photos of the nasty potentially polluting transformers at the power substation so that it can be used in a presentation on the evils of same before some legislators. Tech’s also not going to have Ingrid’s friends who will go do such things, and more, knowing what they are doing.

Why am I getting into this like this? If you are going to do a coordinated (even if the participants don’t realize it’s such) campaign, you have to have the human bandwidth in place. It’s why those facing the prospect of occupation need to be developing overt and covert networks NOW, not after the fact. If indeed the transformer attacks and mysterious fires in Russia are indeed planned and coordinated attacks it implies that some potentially significant HUMINT networks are in operation.

Now, let’s look at the second level of bandwidth: data and communications. Yes, you can pull a lot of information on things out via Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), but it can leave fingerprints if you are not careful. Between OSINT and your HUMINT operations in the areas of interest, you still have to get the data and local analysis back to headquarters. In the past, this was very dicey as radio transmissions were highly monitored and an unregistered broadcast could be quickly triangulated with nasty results in many countries. Getting print messages was and is very dangerous as well, even using dead drops. Even using computers to send files where information was hidden in photos, or even a period to a sentence, could be blocked or intercepted. E-messages have had to travel over local networks, allowing the chance for interception or monitoring.

There are ways to work around all that, even having to use local and other networks. However, imagine if you will using a system that allows you to contact a satellite directly, on a fairly narrow/tight signal. Your signal then bounces to another satellite, and maybe another, and then down (possibly even directly) to your intended contact. You have a greatly reduced chance of detection and interception, and if you use encryption (commercially available even) and/or code, much less chance someone can understand what you are saying.

Keep in mind that code doesn’t have to be gibberish. This post could be a code that when deciphered gives you the current stock of the wine cellar at St. Elmo’s and recommendations of what to try first. Pity it can’t create the money to go try those recommendations….

Welcome to modern satellite internet. Your system could consist of as little as a cell phone, but even a larger unit is just a small dish and a large modem. Not necessarily that hard to hide. Using care and tradecraft, a lot of information can be exchanged, and for better or for worse, extensive conversations with headquarters or other control are possible.

ASIDE: Yes, I am a bit of a cynic, and tend to think extensive communications with HQ or control are not for the best. On several levels. In fact, I’m reminded of a line from a Keith Laumer book that went along the lines of ‘Bomb Headquarters? No sir, I was suggesting we bomb the enemy, but now that you mention it…’

In this case, you have the intel coming in, analysis of it all, and then further instructions going back out. Possibly in several exchanges since you can enhance and refine with greatly reduced chance of detection. Then, orders go out to local or other assets that tell them what to do, where to get items needed, and how they are to proceed, and possibly even exfiltrate at need. At the end of which, transformers are attacked, the noisemaker dropped by Olga is instead a small but powerful incendiary device, and Ivan finds something extra in the air when he lights up.

The third and final bit of bandwidth is the command and control bandwidth. You need competent people getting, analyzing, and responding to the data. You need people who can and will think outside the box. Who can and will plan effectively, so as not to burn any assets without need. Who can create plans that also give the assets in control at the far end room to maneuver and improvise as needed (and there are never enough of that type, ever). If what we are seeing here and in Russia is indeed “enemy action” it implies a surprising amount of C&C bandwidth.

Hopefully, some good food for thought. I leave a final question for you, my readers, and for any intel or senior leadership that reads this:

If indeed the attacks on the transformers are a message, has anyone considered that they may be a mirror of the attacks on the power grid in the Ukraine?

UPDATE: A scary question, for some…

A Different Take On Russia

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I’ve been talking with reader Bill on several topics about Russia, which are actually related. Been promising him an article or two, and it’s time to deliver. While I said it early on, it’s time to revisit what I think is in store for Russia in the near future. Absent some massive political, social, and other changes, Russia is frelled. There are several reasons for this.

First up, as I and others have discussed before, is birthrate. This article in the Moscow Times gives a good overview and is worth the read. It’s even in English so no translation needed. When you factor in ethnicity, the Rus/Slavs are being outbred by pretty much every other ethnic group, often by a significant margin. Still looking for some solid figures, but it appears that in a number of areas the Rus/Slav group is already a shrinking minority.

This is not new in many respects, as Russkiy Mir called for efforts to reverse this trend and to bring home ethnic Rus/Slav that were not currently part of Russia. It’s why the Russians are kidnapping so many Ukrainian children as they are essential to repopulation efforts.

The other key component in trying to halt the demographic slide is to change the abortion culture that gripped (grips?) Russia. While it is changing, abortion was (is?) the primary means of birth control. Given infant and maternal mortality rates, and a lack of basic reliable healthcare, it was the chosen method. In 2000, more than 2 million abortions were performed in Russia, and while numbers have significantly dropped, it is an ongoing cultural battle. See this article and this article for some additional background.

Keep in mind that most of the data/statistics shown are the official statistics of the Russian government, and may or may not accurately reflect reality. I’ve seen some other statistics out there that indicate your average Rus/Slav woman of childbearing years has had multiple abortions (unconfirmed rates of 10-20 in a lifetime), which also has a very negative affect on the ability to have children when marriage and other factors put you in a position to want children. If anyone has a source of accurate statistics on abortion by ethnic group, would love to see them.

To further complicate efforts to halt the population decline Russia has one of the worst, if not the worst, rate of spread and rate of death from AIDS/HIV. How bad is it? So bad the Russian government no longer reports the data (or they had quit the last time I checked). Major mode of spread seems to be drug use, which is also a factor I’m not going to get into too much today. Read this article, this article, and this article for more information. Again, I’ve seen some real interesting numbers, and where it appears there is widening drug (and alcohol) abuse with a corresponding spread of AIDS/HIV is in younger males in the prime years for marriage, family, etc.

Now, you also have to factor in brain drain. While the news has been focused on young men fleeing Russia to avoid getting sent to the Ukraine, brain drain is a long-term problem for Russia that seems to only be growing. It’s not just males either, but females as well. Kamil Galeev has written about this before and I commend his works on the subject to you. He’s someone I respect, and respect the thought processes, even if/when I disagree with him. Great insights on Russia, and he is a good example of the brain drain they face. Again, based on what data I can find, this is an ongoing and accelerating problem.

Russia is a resource rich country, make no mistake. It literally, however, can’t tap it’s own resources to any degree right now. Rus/Slav paranoia about foreign partnerships (and there are companies around the world who would love to to be a part of such efforts since even a small percentage of such is going to be huge) along with remnants of Soviet/Communist inferiority complex are a large part of the problem. The other problem is that developing the people-resources needed means they need smart, clever, and ambitious people who can think outside the box. Most of which are leaving Russia for better opportunities and circumstances. Under the oligarchia and current culture, there is very little for them in Russia.

In addition to a vast amount of resources, Russia also had its reputation as a top-tier military power and as a nuclear power. Yes, I said had and mean it.

I’m having one of those mornings today, so I can’t remember if it was the Institute for the Study of War (ISW on Twitter), Dmitri, or Kamil Galeev who stated in the last few days that internal Russian politics will cope with problems with the military while military defeats will result in domestic political change. I agree with the basic assessment.

For all that Russians take pride in a mighty military, being a member of the military itself has fallen out of favor. Military members are seen, effectively, as dumb, morally cripple, and about anything else a leftist has said here about our own military. Have heard that the Russian military members are a bit of a handful for local law enforcement, and may be far more involved in drug dealing, theft, and other delights than in what might be regarded as normal shenanigans for a basic troop.

For all that troops are increasingly regarded as scum by what appears to be a growing part of the population, Russians do take pride in having a mighty military that will protect them from the evil West, Nazis, and others. That can meet any challenge, defeat any enemy, and do so quickly. After all, they’ve been promised by Putin and others that the military is a priority, has the best equipment, is well trained, etc.

By opening the military to the oligarchia for looting, it is increasingly clear that the Russian military is a shell of its former self. Word is that we and others have been able to buy equipment and advanced systems to study because troops (and their families) were literally starving. The missing radios from the Russian doomsday plane should have been a bigger clue to all than it apparently was. I certainly had no idea of the extent to which the corruption had disrupted everything from uniforms to specialized gear. Cheap imported tires are the least of the problems the Russian military faces.

Right now, there are serious questions about how much of the warstock they have can even be used. Tanks and rifles are rusted to the point of being inoperative and non-repairable. Specialized gear? Look at how many years overdue the SATAN-II missile is right now, and one gets an idea of why it and other systems are being questioned. Soviet era supplies, especially on things like MOPP gear, are toast at this point.

On paper, they still have a huge military with lots of gear. I have one question on that, which is if the 20 percent ghost trooping we appeared to see early on isn’t a much higher percentage. When millions of uniforms don’t exist because of corruption, how many of the troops are really there? How many of their aircraft are truly fully serviceable?

Which is why things are about to get even more interesting for Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not the only potential flash point on the Russian flanks (and within treaty). There are any number of areas that are potentially restive towards rule by Moscow, and if you think China hasn’t considered absorbing some of those resource-rich areas next to their border you are delusional. And if you think the Middle Kingdom is happy with Vladimir buying or trying to buy stocks of ammo from North Korea, I’ve got a bridge for you. North Korea has long been an area of contention between the two powers. Also, Winnie the Poo is not likely to be happy in regards Iran for that matter. China has long been expanding its influence there, using carefully metered nuclear help among other things. Now, Tehran is openly asking for advanced nuclear weapon development help as part of the deal for drones (which have far too many Western, including US, parts in them).

On top of that, you now have Japan pushing (hard by diplomatic standards) in regards the Kuril Islands. Japan has never accepted their loss, and for years has pushed on a purely diplomatic level simply because that was the only option open to them. Between the size and perceived quality of the Russian military, and it being a nuclear power, they were not stupid and so made no military move. Now, even as people start to openly debate if Russia qualifies as either a second or third tier military, who knows? I don’t expect to see Japan do something militarily aggressive but what else might they do?

Russia, as we know it, is on course to implode. Between population shrinkage, and the rapid shrinking of the ethnic Rus/Slav people, and brain drain, the current system has no chance of long-term survival. Add in everything else, and the odds go up rather dramatically on the system coming apart in the next ten to twenty years. Now, factor in military defeat in Ukraine and the impact that is going to have on populations and politics, and it means the next few years might be more interesting than any of us would like. Especially given that Russia is an unstable nuclear power to an extent that makes the old Soviet Union breaking apart seem stable by comparison.

As I pointed out yesterday, the invasion and all that is going on in Russia is based on domestic Russian politics. What I’ve outlined above are some of the factors driving those domestic politics. Dealing with the international and other issues depends on leaders outside of Russia not only understanding the domestic Russian political situation but also the cultural factors playing into it and into popular opinion within Russia. For that we have Dementia Joe and the incompetent Regency; Macron the Macaroon; the Germans; the British (who hopefully still have a decent MoD and aren’t going to replace the PM every week); and, Xi the unstable. Oh, and keep in mind that Great Leader, Khamenei (who is facing open rebellion), and a few others are fishing around in these troubled waters too. At a time where the world truly needs stable, intelligent, and competent leadership, this is what we have.

Russia is not the only country that may be frelled.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Double, Triple, Or…

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I’ve been watching a couple of things play out on Twitter and in the news that remind me I am no longer young. Or, perhaps, that many of those in the OSINT (Open Source INTelligence) world are younger, much younger, than I. That is not intended as a knock against them in any way, as some of them are displaying a mastery of Intelligence (or select portions thereof) equal to or exceeding some of the so-called professionals. Also something of a hallmark for good OSINT…

As for me, I started reading James Bond and other spy novels in the late 1960s and was fascinated with the work of John Barron and eagerly read his KGB: The Secret Work of Soviet Secret Agents when it came out in 1974. Then again, this also all tied into my fascination with the Soviet Union, the space race, and nuclear war and surviving same. Which led to some interesting times and places, but…

Right now, this story has portions of the OSINT and other communities tied up in knots. Welcome to the game.

Unlike The Game that is nuclear strategy and war, the game has played out pretty much throughout human history. Spying, spies, and gathering intelligence on friends, potential friends, and enemies has been around for as long as civilization itself. Is that person an agent, double-agent, triple-agent, or something else yet again? I’m going to skip the whole agent versus operative versus spy thing for now. The question has always been, can I trust that person.

Let’s face it, it’s a good question. In olden days, many of those who were spies or agents were not the most savory of people out there. Heck, the same holds true today in many respects. Spies were often found amongst the smugglers, thieves, drunken sailors, and other non-desirable types in many cases. Even when not from the riff-raff, those who would spy on or flat-out betray their country are not always tightly wrapped, to be polite. One of the greatest intelligence assets ever, Agent Farewell who provided the intel that helped bring down the Soviet Union, proves that point IMO.

Back in the Cold War, neither side trusted those who defected, no matter what public show may have been put on in regards them. Some were legitimate, some had defected in order to gather intel that they would then pass along/take back with them when the re-defected, and some were something else. In some cases on the latter, they are still trying to figure out what that person was. Some real defectors would eventually get some respect, but never full trust. Others, to be merely suspected of being a plant or double agent, meant horror. Never mind what the Soviets did (which truly was a horror), take a look at what James Jesus Angelton did to those he suspected — with or without evidence.

Over the years I’ve met people who emigrated; I’ve met a couple that were essentially kicked out of their country; I’ve met people who escaped their country; and I’ve met a couple of defectors. Of the latter, a Mig pilot impressed me and I very much enjoyed the chance to get to know him a small bit. Of the former, most were/are decent and hardworking. Those who escaped, and often paid a price for that escape, I tended to trust a bit more easily.

I also have come to share an attitude held by many who routinely work with defectors and related: if the person loudly and theatrically denounces the country they came from, it’s leaders, and even more loudly and theatrically praise the U.S. (or GB, or wherever they were), well, the less anyone trusted them. True defectors and immigrants tend to have mixed feelings, as no matter what they thought of what the country they had left had become, it was still their country, their homeland. They may have been relieved at being safe, and thrilled for the opportunities that awaited, but there was always a bit of sorrow at having to leave. For some, I’m told, it turned into something so profound that they eventually had to return, even knowing in some cases the horrible death that awaited.

For all things, and with all people, “Trust but verify” as Boss would say. As for the story that sparked this, I will simply note that what came before is nothing. It’s what is done now that counts, and one has to work — sometimes extremely hard — to earn respect and trust. In cases like this, even if respect is earned, it’s better to exercise appropriate judgement in regards how far one trusts.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.