Current Events – Page 14 – The Laughing Wolf

Quick Thoughts

Sorry to be lite with posting, but things are still more interesting than I care for. Personally and in terms of world events. Let’s start with the latter.

If you have missed seeing the video of the person illegally entering the country who told a reporter they were too stupid to know who they were, but to wait as soon all would know who he is, I’m not surprised. See here, here, and here for more and watch the full video and analysis. Corporate media is ignoring as hard as they can, so what little coverage of this and all the military-age muslim/middle-eastern men from places like Syria, Jordan, Afghanistan, etc. are getting is coming from new/alternative media. Which makes it a target for corporate media members and other influences to poo-poo you crazed conspiracy theorist you… Sigh. No matter how low an opinion you have of corporate media, it is not low enough. Also, can’t believe how many are claiming that the government has him under surveillance and won’t let anything happen — just like they’ve done with all those mass killing known wolves. Right. Keep your eyes open and be prepared, for this guy does plan to make himself known and unlike our government I suspect he’s competent. Which is sad as we will be the ones paying the bill.

Also in the news this morning is a report of a Russian Il-76 going down in Russian-controlled territory. The Russians are claiming it had POWs from Ukraine on board, while Ukraine says it had S-300 missiles. Some sources are saying Ukraine shot it down, but there is good reason to believe the Russians took it out by mistake (wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened). Keep an eye out as the tap dancing on this one is probably going to be impressive. Have to wonder if Ukraine hasn’t found an exploit given that there are still some persistent rumors that they tricked Russian air defense into shooting down their own AWACs plane… If I were Vladimir or other top leaders, I’d think twice before flying anywhere near the front right now. Oh, be sure to keep an eye on how Ukraine long-range attacks are forcing Russia to deploy/re-deploy AAD assets deeper and deeper into Russia.

Speaking of Russia, the politics continue. One of the more interesting things I’m noting is that people are no longer quite so cautious about attacking Kadyrov. A number of interesting people have begun not just talking in private, but in public (or encouraging others to do so) questioning how much if anything Kadyrov was doing to help win the war. This wasn’t helped by having a couple of his top people appear to consider shooting a Russian soldier who not only dared stop them at a checkpoint, but pointed out their paperwork was not in order. Kadyrov has not been tactful in his responses, which isn’t helping. Nor is it limited to those attacks. Recently a member of the Duma made some comments about muslims and islamic extremists, and predicted there could be clashes coming between Orthodox Christians and muslims. Kadyrov called for the member to be ousted and has blustered — and initial reports are it’s not going over well. We will see. For now, Vladimir is safe in power though April may be a different story.

Also, I’ve spoken highly of Kamil Galeev on here before, and I think his work on Russia, Russian history, politics, etc. is outstanding. His work on who in the West is providing advanced machine tools and more is very good and should be required reading for politicians and others involved with sanctions. That said, I’ve been made aware of some comments made by him in regards the Middle East and Israel and while disappointed (to be polite) it is a reminder than knowledge in one area often does not translate into other areas. If he goes into open antisemitism, I will be dropping him as a resource and can’t recommend his work outside of his specialty on Russia. Caveat Emptor.

The war by the White House on commercial space (and Elon in particular) continues. However, there is some good pushback and a reminder we need to push our congrescritters and others to prevent over-regulation and halt efforts by the White House to curtail commercial space. Hat tip to Instapundit for that one. Remember, as long as we are in the cradle of humanity, crib death is a possibility. We need to be out and exploring, for that is the only way to start to guarantee a real future for humanity.

I will add that if I could go up in space, I would. I would love being a part of the SpaceX human spaceflight program, though I fear at this point all I might contribute is ‘He survived launch.’ Wish protein crystallography out of UAB were still flying, as I think I remember how to operate their flight gear. I would seriously consider the moon or Mars, even if I knew it would be one way.

As for some of the personal stuff, my effort to get the heart diagnosis proven or disproved have hit a roadblock. I was under the impression that tomorrow’s scheduled meeting with the cardiologist was to answer the question. However, the doc got sick, and the person working to reschedule with another doc informed me that no it wasn’t, invasive tests were/are needed, and a bit more. Seems my visit was only scheduled for 20 minutes anyway, just long enough to make it a full-cost visit for insurance filing.

I am less than happy, to the point I’m considering looking for a new cardiologist, especially since this is not the first time I’ve been disappointed/less-than-impressed with her. I’m also having to do a bit of thinking since the mystery diagnosis (reminder, it showed up in another hospital’s online system but no one can tell me who made it, on what basis, etc.) is confirmed, there is no current treatment. Too bad, so sad.

Between that and some other stuff, been a little preoccupied. On a good news front, physical therapy is progressing as we can start doing more strength and related, which lets me actually do things with the extremely good range of motion. It also makes the sessions run a little long (at this point I’m mostly self-directed as I know what I’m to be doing and so start then get checked on every now and then. We tend to add in new stuff towards the end, and then next time I know to do it. It does make PT days a bit intense and tiring, however. So, that’s cut into the writing a bit.

May get more into some of the health stuff later, but for now just going to focus on getting done what I can while I can. I’m actually doing some things at the Church I’ve been attending, and enjoying them. We are not rushing my joining, though I very much appreciated the priest giving me a book to read for Christmas. Going to Church is dangerous to my wallet, as they have a bookstore there… 🙂 My Christmas treat to myself was a book on The Inklings that I’m hoping to start soon.

Hoping to get more writing done in the days ahead, though PT and health will have to come first. More soon.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

A Different Type Of Irrational Actor

In several of the posts in my category on nuclear use and/or war, I talk about the “actors” involved. No, not the Hollyweird types but the (so-called) leaders of various nuclear powers.

Back when such was primarily the U.S. and Soviet Union, the basic feeling was that both parties were rational actors. That is, they were of reasonably sound mind, had rational interests in protecting the lives and livelihoods of their respective countries, and were not bent on destroying the world. Even as the club grew, this remained the basic framework for evaluation and consideration of the actions of those people.

There was always at least some (lip) service given to the potential for madmen to get control of a weapon or even a missile or plane. Or, that some form of technological failure would set things off. The presumptions behind Fail Safe (book and movie) was about the former, while the satire Dr. Strangelove presented the latter. That said, both dealt with larger-scale events and both led to efforts to prevent or mitigate same. Twilight’s Last Gleaming looked at someone gaining control of a nuclear missile command post/silo. The ridiculous The Manhattan Project looked at a student building an atomic bomb. Dawn’s Early Light examined rogue Soviet agents firing a missile from Turkey to provoke an exchange.

As far as the public (and media of the day) were concerned, the real problems lay with rational actors and the chance for mistakes or other to lead to an exchange. The public sentiment seemed to be that rational actors would otherwise never consider a nuclear exchange. The chance of a madman/terrorist getting a bomb was not considered real in terms of public perceptions. For those actually involved with security and proliferation, it was a larger concern than was generally shared with the public. So, between the perceptions of the public outlined above via movies, and concerns for safety, as weapon design advanced so did the safety mechanisms. PIDs (which could be snap hooks or cheap padlocks) were replaced by PALs. At least for some weapons, which is why the loss of the Soviet arms depot just before the Soviet Union came apart was (and is) worrying to the pros. Odds of any such weapons still being viable, if they ever existed or were missing, is slim. That said, the materials and parts within them are potentially a different matter. If they were there, real, and missing that is.

So, what happens when a state with nuclear weapons is not a rational actor in accordance with the basic framework? What happens when it’s not one madman who gets in charge, but rather an entire government that has a very different take on the world and what is rational within it?

It’s a very interesting question, and one we may get to explore more than theoretically in the coming days. A certain degree of lip service, if that, has been given to the concept of a state that has a very different take on politics and religion, but the “experts” have tended to push that they would behave as rational actors. My thoughts on that have never been in full (or most other) agreement as the leaders of such a country would not think as we think, within a framework of thought crafted by Western civilization. Pretty much the “mores” argument on dealing with the Soviets/Russians, but with added mayhem.

So, in the last week we’ve had a country, that if it is not already a nuclear weapons power is extremely close to being such, attacking multiple countries not just by proxy but directly via ballistic missiles — including three that are believed to be nuclear powers. This on top of conducting “covert” operations on a wide scale, possibly into the Americas. A government hanging on in many ways by a thread with a population that is a powder keg looking for a spark. A government that is a theocracy that makes typical repression look tame. A government that advocates and works for their version of Armageddon as it will bring about the return of the hidden imam and the creation of a world-wide Islamic caliphate.

By no measure can Iran be considered a typical rational actor in terms of nuclear use/non-use scenarios. In fact, I consider them far more unstable than North Korea, and that’s saying something. Especially given a number of rather troubling developments with Kim and the North Korean government/military that don’t bode well for a peaceful 2024. That’s a nightmare that I will leave for others to explain. In regards Iran, you have a regime that has no regard for human life on any level. Such is a Western concept they reject completely and totally. They consider lives outside of themselves as even less than those they wantonly kill or maim to stay in power.

Aside from the U.S. and Israel, Iran has chosen to attack Pakistan, which is a nuclear power. Which has responded with attacks of its own that may be just the start of retaliation per various declarations. While some are saying they won’t really go at it as both are Islamic, the fact is they are two different “flavors” of Islam and they are not compatible. This has the potential to get very, very interesting on its own.

Now, let’s look at a known feature of Iranian activities: the use of proxies/catspaws. Something I’ve brought up from time to time is a concern that this would apply even to nuclear operations. To make it even more fun, I can think of several ways they could make such a use appear to be the result of others being careless, such as China or North Korea. There is growing evidence that both the latter have supplied weapons (and more) to Hamass, Hezbowlah, and the Houthi/Hootie. Or, despite their apparent closeness to Russia, suspect that they would be more than glad to set them up as well.

Given the reported involvement of China with Iran’s nuclear weapon and missile development, do you think it would be hard to get enough material to obfuscate the origins of a nuclear weapon? Or that others might share material (or help obtain such) to use for such a purpose from others? While analysis can often tell us where the nuclear materials in any device, dirty or otherwise, came from there has always been the possibility of spoofing that, or at least to providing enough to put the analysis into question. Remember that arms depot and that there is potentially a fair bit of nuclear materials available for use/reuse, from every major nuclear power. Just a thought to brighten your day.

Now, let’s kick things up a notch. Imagine if a nuclear weapon detonated within Yemen, or after being launched by the Houthi at a ship in the gap. On the former, I would expect to see Israel blamed and the large number of governments demand (or even execute) attacks on/destruction of Israel. The huge amount (and growing) of antisemitism is not an accident or otherwise unplanned. Even if it was clear the detonation came from a missile or drone launched from Yemen, expect a large and coordinated push to blame Israel. Now, to kick it up even further, consider what would happen if the Biden Regency, which is not terribly pro-Israel (and has a number of antisemites within it) has to react to American warships, or even a CBG, caught in such a blast.

Or, while less likely image if something were to happen in or near Venezuela where both China and Iran have been busy, busy, busy. Imagine it happened to a British ship or ships, or to the capital of the country they want to invade. Far fetched you say? Not as much as I would like.

Because it all comes back to Iran being a non-rational state actor. They are an Islamic theocracy driven by religious beliefs and more importantly goals. Their actions have to be analyzed and considered in that light. To continue, as some “experts” seem determined to do, to treat and analyze them as rational actors is ridiculous. Even absent nuclear intents, it is foolish in the extreme to consider them a rational actor and treat them accordingly.

That the Biden Regency/Obama II The Dementia Boogaloo will continue to do so, and work for them instead of against them, is a given. Once bought, they do tend to stay bought… Which is all the more likely to escalate the situation. It is also driving a wedge into a number of long-term and/or important alliances. This fracturing is very detrimental to the concepts of peace and stability, be it deliberate or otherwise. It also means anything done by another that might be effective will be resisted if not prevented by the Regency.

Meantime, Iran will continue it’s international game of chicken and work towards its own ends. While for many in the West the attacks on three nuclear powers makes no sense, it did and does make sense to the mad mullahs in Tehran. I strongly suspect we would be a lot better off if our experts would start trying to look at it from their viewpoint rather than continuing to try to shoehorn it into the rational actor box. They are not rational actors as we think of it, and failure to acknowledge that is going to have very bad results.

Behind The Curtain

I’ve been pointing this out since around 10/8, but the point keeps getting lost in the flood of outrage porn and engagement manipulation for compensation on social media. Not as many may see it here, but it is an important point: pay attention to the creatures behind the curtain. Don’t count on Toto to pull it open to make it hard for most to ignore.

From the start, the so-called “pro-Palestinian” movement was amazingly well prepared. Pre-printed signs, banners, shirts, and more were somehow available on 10/8. The amount has only grown since. There are other logistics as well, most especially transportation. A different form of logistics is seen in the obsequious abasement of political and judicial/law enforcement to these protests even when they blockade or assault houses of worship (hallmark of the greater jihad, see Hagia Sophia, Dome of the Rock, and far too many other examples) and clearly break the law via blockading streets and otherwise taking actions without appropriate permits, etc. Take a look at all the spontaneous outdoor prayers being performed in the streets and on the grounds of churches and places of government in Europe and England (and even here a bit though it seldom makes the news).

Add in the deliberate desecration of war/veteran memorials, cemeteries, and other cultural items of import by those who conquer and claim them for Palestine (and Islam), and you get a taste of what is to come. Can they pull it off? Yes, at least in cities where the leadership has already been suborned or replaced (think NY, Seattle, Toronto, etc. for the former, and London as a prime example of the latter). On the rare occasions when arrests are made or citations issued, those seem to get quietly dismissed. Most of the time, no matter how egregious the behavior, it is condoned and allowed. Not so is any counter-protest, to the point of arresting or attacking under color of law those who simply carry a flag of their nation (or in the case of the Castreaux regime, dare to ask questions of its members).

Well, maybe they can pull it off. People are getting fed up, and while a good bit of effort has gone into provoking a response so the individual who acts to defend others (see NY again) or otherwise “assaults” those committing crimes can be hammered hard to drive the point home to the proles (pour encourager les autres). Problem is, people are fed up and the rage is bottled up to the point it is a much larger danger than I suspect those behind these protests realize. They expect easy to control individuals or small groups, or larger who decide on a legal fight via lawsuits in court. Problem is, while I hope to see the latter, the amount of pissed off people is such that I think it is already far outside their control, and they are going to be extremely and unpleasantly surprised on how far things go when they pop.

I’m seeing that and some other interesting signs even here in Indy. Despite desperate fellating by most of the corporate media here, the pro-terrorist/rapist demonstrations are small, and frankly pathetic. The public is increasingly not only unresponsive, but growing antagonistic to them. Maybe it helps that there is some pushback against the corporate narrative by talk radio and non-traditional media here. When it is repeatedly pointed out that the demonstrators are pro-terrorist/rapist (a point that needs to be hammered home hard) and the public sees the contempt with which such protests/protestors hold them… Despite the incompetent administration of the city (and the gross mismanagement of the State), I have some small hope that we might, maybe, avoid some of the worst of things. For those in the large blue cities, get out now if you can for the worst is yet to come.

Sarah has started a series of posts that look promising for resistance outside the big blue cities. Looking forward to it, and would love to find a way to mitigate the chaos likely to come. In fact, I’ve been praying for such ways and for Divine intervention to minimize what I think may be headed our way. On a more general note, having to do with the rampant antisemitism revealed crawling like maggots under the skin of the body politic, this post at The Lid is a good read.

Oh, and speaking of behind the curtain, I’ve noticed that the fact that a lot of billionaires and millionaires are building bunkers and other doomsday retreats is finally starting to get more widespread attention. I’ve been aware for a while and have (I think, stupid lightning) mentioned it a time or two. Still a bit annoyed as some land I had considered out West got bought up for same. Sure is driving prices up… I will also note that if all are doing security the same way, which includes treating such security as dirt, a potential threat to be controlled by holding families hostage or otherwise for blackmail, well, things may not go the way the so-called elites think. And, yes, there are far better ways to ensure loyalty, fealty, and more. Also, when people realize what you have in store for them and their families, they talk within the community as it were. For the record, while many big names are building in Hawai’i, you would be amazed at how many are quietly (and through shell companies, etc.) building in the American West and even into portions of the midwest…

With your help, I hope to be writing a bit more on preparedness, and ways we might can divert and mitigate some of the potential consequences economic and otherwise. Meantime, be prepared and keep your things where you can find them in the dark (literal or figurative). Also, keep an eye out for who is behind the curtain being so free with money, logistics, and political favors. Don’t count on Toto, Be Toto! More soon.

Windows Again

No, not the operating system, those darn Russian windows have claimed another ally of Vladimir. Or at least a former ally of Vladimir. Some details are fuzzy, but it is dangerous to be either a full ally or someone who failed to be what Vladimir wanted to see in an ally. Waffle even a little bit…

Right now, no definitive information if Egorov was an ally who got in the way of the opposition, failed to meet a test of Vladimir’s, or what. There are rumors of other deaths recently, but not a lot of solid news. Politics truly is a blood sport in Russia, so would not be surprised if there were indeed more as things are heating up behind the scenes/curtains even as a picture of calm is trying very hard to be projected.

Also, taking reports of Gerasimov’s death with a grain of salt for now. The original source is interesting, and they deleted the report. For now, watching to see what happens and what does come out. Remember, if it comes from Moscow take it with a tun of salt…

UPDATE: Yes, I do think Vladimir’s New Year’s speech was either computer enhanced or computer generated. Watch the area around his neck and collar…

More soon.

Mores and More, Yet Again

Long time readers will know that I’ve been jumping up and down on the topic of mores (pronounced More-As) and the inability of many leaders in the West, particularly the U.S., to grasp that Russians aren’t just like us but speak funny since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. That they have a very different history, culture, and world view. That Russkiy Mir is a very real and defining document, and much like Hamass has been very clear on what they want to do in the world, Russkiy Mir defines what Russia wants to do. When your enemies tell you what they want to do and how, pay attention.

Then again, I’ve been jumping up and down on this topic since the late 1970s/early 1980s. Aside from the Reagan years, it has fallen largely on deaf ears. Boss got it, then again he knew it before he ever came into office. Would that others had done the same, or were doing it now.

One who gets it is Cdr. Salamander, who brings it up in a very good discussion on the Russia-Ukraine war. He makes very good points, and I agree with most if not all. I would note that a good case can be made that Vladimir is attempting to use two things against us: the lack of patience of the American public and economic warfare that mirrors what Reagan did to the USSR.

The American public is not known for patience, and since WWII has little interest in or patience with wars that aren’t over fast. Some of that is from cultural shift, some from Gramscian damage to our culture (see also modern higher ed), and some to political realities. Vladimir is counting on this, and is even stoking it (and trying to sway upcoming elections) by thanking Republicans for their efforts to defund Ukraine. His comments along these lines are pure malice and he loves the Pavlovian response of the progressives to them.

Also, America is in economic trouble and everyone knows it, even those saying otherwise. There is some very black humor in Russia doing all it can to push America into more economic trouble by military spending to support Ukraine. After all, Reagan forced Russia into military and other spending to help push the USSR under. If you think that is not a factor in Vladimir’s thinking, you are mistaken.

My own take remains that we do have an obligation to help Ukraine courtesy of Bill Clinton; that depleting our stockpiles and engaging in massive spending is not the best way to do it; that while the war is dangerous in that it could spread and/or nasty things could happen, better to do it now (though I do wish there were a good exit ramp); and, that if the war ends with a peace forced from outside, we will see a far worse and nastier conflict within two decades, more likely one. That one will involve NATO as Russkiy Mir calls for taking over Poland, the Baltics, and more. There is a reason those nations have a very different view of things than the rest of NATO. For all that I would love to see this war ended, I think how it is ended matters. I also still very much think that the only way we will get a true and long-term peace in the region is to have the Russian Federation come apart.

The Biden Regency is effectively Obama II. Obama I was committed to ending American military and other power. From the purge of the warfighters to gutting critical programs and planning, they did a good job of damaging our military. When you add the incompetence that is the hallmark of the Biden Regency to such an effort, I can make a case for using the term catastrophic as a descriptor.

My take on the intelligence and leadership failures that led to the invasion actually taking place is in the archives. Given that Obama I had shown we would not live up to the promises made by Clinton, Vladimir had no doubt the feckless incompetents of the Biden Regency would do nothing other than talk.

Then again, Vladimir was wrong on two counts. First, he thought that he had a short victorious war (never happens at scale), and that dusting off the 1968 Czech plan (down to using a number of the same Russian units) would work. After all, with his 2014 invasion all Vladimir got from Obama I was talk and a lot of important territory. Instead of the one- to three-day war he expected, however… Second, I think he was surprised that the U.S. and the West would respond at all, far less supply the massive amounts of ammunition, equipment, and other support required of a modern conflict. Then again, he trusted what he was told about his military, which has a long tradition of gundecking reports that predates the USSR…

If we had had competent leadership of any type in the White House, I don’t think the invasion would have taken place yet. If we had competent leadership, they would have worked to find ways to respond that don’t put us economically or militarily between a rock and a hard place. A competent administration would not be foot dragging replacement of critical supplies, replacement that they were forced to do by Congress. Then again, a competent administration would be working on some fundamental changes to our military planning processes as well. Topics for another day though.

Just some quick thoughts, and a link to a good and thought-provoking post. Sorry, just not up to more than that today.

Additional Thoughts On The Real Lesson From Ukraine

A while back, I did a post on the real lesson to be learned from Ukraine in year one. For all that people were jumping on drones, I pointed out that the real lesson was on data. Today, I would like to amend that to add flexibility in the form of innovation.

Don’t get me wrong, drones have reshaped operations on land and at sea. However, the real game changer has been the data and the flexibility to adapt and overcome. Right now, the usual bandits, beltway and otherwise, are out there with plans for specialized drones costing thousands (if we are lucky) and taking years to get into production. The procurement process in all its glory.

What really has made drones effective, and allowed Ukraine to prevent being overrun in the early days, however, was data and the ability to take that data and get inventive with responses. Data really comprises two interlinked facets.

First, there is the raw intelligence data: who is where, when, and what are they doing and saying? Thanks to Russian corruption, Ukraine and a host of others were literally listening in and getting massive amounts of data. Thanks to Starlink, wifi, cellular, and other data systems, they were able to not just collect data, but transmit information to troops and others and literally guide systems into place.

It still might not have saved them if not for the ability to be flexible, to innovate responses and tailor them to specific situations. The decisions to flood, blow select bridges and other infrastructure, blunted the major attack and gave Ukraine the ability to halt the advance against Kiev and go on the offensive. It gave them the opportunity to begin targeting not just Russian commanders at all levels, but to selectively engage effective commanders while leaving incompetent commanders in place. It also allowed them to engage in psyops and more.

That flexibility has carried over into drones, where innovation has come largely from the front, not the rear. Net result is observation drones turned into delivery platforms with good effect. Someone, somewhere, looked at all the anti-tank mines being collected after being helpfully left by the Russians, and got the idea of using about two feet of broomstick and a two-liter pop bottle to stabilize such, and then turn it into a grenade-detonated device with the punch of an artillery shell.

Inexpensive, effective, and developed and deployed within a very short time (hours/days). Devastating to Russian vehicles and positions thanks to data for intelligence and command and control. The same holds true for naval operations, and the Russian fleet has paid a price.

The key is, Ukraine appears to be allowing its forces to innovate, experiment, and modify on the front and down to unit level. This used to be a hallmark of U.S. forces.

Many years ago, I was part of some discussions on why American troops did so well in WWII, and how to shift that to modern battlefields. Two factors came out in our discussions in regards WWII. One was that rural, and even some urban, troops had extensive experiences with shooting and marksmanship. Thanks to the Great Depression, a lot of people got very good at hunting simply so they could eat. Guess who made good scouts, snipers, and general troops? The second was that American troops of all stripes were adept at improvised repair and adaptation. Truck or other vehicle break down? Rather than call for specialists, our troops quite often simply improvised a repair and kept going until a proper repair could be made. Something not working as it was supposed to? Adapt, improvise, and get creative.

The problem with translating that to modern battle was two-fold. First, the crucible that was the Great Depression was long gone. The hardship that had shaped and prepared so much of the population no longer existed, and by comparison modern youth had/has never truly experienced hardship (topic for another day). That, in turn, shaped a very different mindset. While there were, as always, a few exceptions it was clear they were exceptions. Even the drive to do your best and test yourself against others was being eroded by societal factors and education. It’s still there, just buried and vilified. Second, it was felt by many that where we needed that ability to improvise and adapt had shifted from conventional equipment to specialized equipment like computers.

Worse, to my mind, were those who did not like the idea of innovation and adaptation at all. At the root of that was both a desire to micromanage (can’t make the “wrong” decision if you are not allowed to make a decision) and a desire not to rock the boat. Innovation could interfere with current modes of operation, procurement, and development after all. Never mind that it might lead to better equipment, operations, or such… Sadly, I have seen this mindset expand.

A few years ago, when I was in the Indiana Guard Reserve (State Guard, not National), I had the pleasure of taking part in Junior ROTC. In fact, I got to teach basic landnav to the participants. The different teams then got dropped off to navigate a course to see how well they did. Most did fairly well, though I was betting we might have to go find a few as I watched them head in without orienting their maps.

One team, however, did something of which I am still pleased and a bit proud. Once in the exercise area, they stopped, improvised camo/ghillie suits, and decided to essentially E&E their way to the endpoint, avoiding detection by other teams — and our monitors. They pulled it off brilliantly. To my horror, an officer in the command tent huffed up and wanted to reprimand them for their actions. Think he was surprised when several of us, of all ranks, dogpiled him and told him that was a stupid fucking idea and that we needed to be commending them as that type of innovation and creative thinking was exactly what troops (esp. combat troops) need. He backed down, somewhat reluctantly as I remember, and the rest of us went out to congratulate and commend that team.

That mindset now, however, appears to have grown and become the dominant mindset in far too many commanders. Troops that innovate might do something that attracts negative publicity from the media, rights groups, and others. It can upset plans in place, even though in many cases it might allow those plans to be improved, and that can’t be allowed.

A few weeks (?) ago, Cdr. Salamander did a good post on inexpensive drones and giving troops a chance to experiment with them. It is a good post, and I agree that if we did so we probably would be richer by several new concepts/adaptations for a very low price. I just don’t think our current leadership, at almost any level, is capable of doing something that smart and simple. Isolated cases, perhaps, but not in the whole.

In looking at the decision to flood and destroy infrastructure in Ukraine in those first days, I wonder if any of our current leadership would make that decision or implement it? If raised, I fully expect a chorus of ‘environmental damage, destruction of expensive property, impact to indigenous people’, and a host of other dreck to come out.

To my mind, if you want to win, data and flexibility are going to be the key. To borrow from John Ringo, he who thinks fastest will be the one to laugh last. Thinking fast, and taking decisive action, have always depended on data and innovation. In future conflict, that will be even more important.

Week Wrap Up

There is a lot happening on and in the world. I’ve not been saying a lot because in both cases it’s hard to know what is really happening.

First up, in tales of the improbable, I’m starting to like John Fetterman. He has been a staunch supporter of Israel and Israel’s right to defend itself. To the point of mocking protestors (even making fun/use of his own brain damage) and hanging the posters of the hostages at his office. He has also been mercilessly trolling Bob Menendez and pushing to have him expelled from Congress a la Santos. His hiring Santos to make a video on Cameo to use in said trolling was a master-level move. Whatever else may come, I can respect and even admire these actions.

Next up, the situation in Yemen and the incompetent response to same. In this case, it’s not just the Biden Regency, but the senior leadership of our military which has reportedly not even briefed Biden and others on options for dealing with the situation. That is coming from multiple sources, and for some reason said leadership seems to know nothing about the history of such attacks or other pertinent information long in the public domain. It is to the point that I wonder about both Intelligence failures and the failure of basic intelligence in senior military (and political) leadership. At least someone seems to be paying attention and taking proactive steps, though everyone is keeping quiet about it. Pretty much rules out DC as that feckless bunch would have been leaking the news and taking credit before the strike ever hit. Wish I could find the video I saw the other day, as the secondary explosions are spectacular.

There are rumbles that part of the reason senior leadership hasn’t briefed Biden or others is because of the Biden Regency’s unwavering support of Iran. The Houthi are Iranian-backed and full proxies for the Mad Mullahs. Again, multiple sources are discussing that behind the scenes the Biden Regency has been pushing Israel hard to not destroy Hamass. To the point an open rift between Israel and the U.S., or at least the Biden Regency, is a growing possibility. The dance has been diplomatic so far, but it appears Israeli leadership is increasingly fed up with the pressure and interference. So much so, there is no guarantee the dance will stay diplomatic and papered over. Israel is in a fight for survival, and I don’t care who is getting ten percent, the Biden Regency needs to pull its sense organ cluster out of its ventral orifice and back off.

They need to be looking a bit closer to home at a potential Monroe Doctrine violation. Iran’s good friend Maduro in Venezuela is making a move to “annex” a portion of neighboring Guyana. A portion that just happens to be a good chunk of Guyana, and that has recently discovered rich oil deposits. Right now, I’m skeptical that this is all part of some overarching plan by Iran against the U.S., but I also have no doubt they are encouraging this. I’ve read some who say that if we had only done more to help Ukraine Maduro would not be doing this. I don’t agreee: Maduro is stupid, venal, and desperate enough to do this even without any encouragement. His recent vote on doing this has blown up in his face not just internationally, but apparently internally as well. The U.S. has been making deals with him recently (once bought, they do tend to stay bought), so I don’t see the Biden Regency as being all that eager to stop him. I think Brazil may be the major player in such, at least for now. Hoping this may stay below a boil, but…

Also, keep an eye on Chad. Something’s going on there, possibly more than just the upcoming election. Odd data patterns.

Going back to Iran and our incompetent leadership, rocket and other attacks against U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq continue. No effective response has been made yet to those attacks, which just encourages more. The lack of concern for our troops (and national interest) is beyond appalling.

Now to Iran’s fastest growing client, Russia. Lots going on beneath the surface. In fact, it sort of reminds me of one of those huge family get togethers where everyone is being super polite to each other openly because if not it will result in a fight where police from multiple jurisdictions have to be called in and the family gets invitations to be on whatever replaced the Maury Povich show.

Somebody on X joked that the sanctions were supposed to put pressure on Vladimir via his fellow oligarchs. The problem is, the oligarchs decided they preferred to be alive, if poorer and grouchy, than to experience defenestration. There’s a lot of truth to that. There is a lot going on beneath the quiet facade however.

Vladimir is having to allow (or create) at least some dissent on the war in order to legitimize upcoming elections. There are those who are pushing for a cease-fire (or more) in regards Ukraine. Just as his own re-election is a given, the results are going to show Russia wanting the war to continue. Allowing some token of opposition, despite the brutal and expanding crackdown on speech and more, can be used to put a flimsy veneer of legitimacy on the election. Russia now is not the Russia I visited or of 20 years ago. There is no free speech, no basic freedoms of any type left. It is toe the line or else.

Which apparently is a memo Kiva did not get. It’s easy to get on Vladimir’s bad side these days, as several of the turncoats are finding out. Yes, I do think it was Vladimir and not Ukraine.

This is something to keep an eye on as well. There continues to be a lot of shakeup/shakedown in regards Wagner and Africa in the wake of the death of Pringles. Interesting how some of the power and perks are shaking out.

Despite the repression and brutality, two things seem to be getting clearer. There are some who oppose the war with Ukraine and their numbers are growing. There also appears to be something of a resistance forming as well, as I’ve noted before. It seems to be mostly local and not some grand organized conspiracy, and is clearly separate from sabotage efforts by Ukraine. As to who is behind this I can’t say; but, there are a number of such incidents happening across Russia, far more than I think Ukraine is capable of doing on its own. Rail accidents, fires, and more that keep popping up. Given the restive nature of many of the non-Rus ethnic populations, as well as ongoing political conflicts, things could get really interesting.

Do I see this flaring up to severely damage or take down the Russian Federation? No. Not yet, and possibly never as it would take a fairly large event to rip the lid off. Could such happen? Yes. I can think of two or three scenarios right off the bat that would do it, but don’t see them likely at this time. For all that I think Vladimir’s control is slipping a bit, I don’t think – barring something off the wall – that he is in imminent danger of being deposed. Kadyrov still has his back for one thing, and he still controls a lot of power. Springtime? That may be different.

Now, if his health suddenly deteriorates much faster or more noticeably than it is now; or, if there is a major defeat (political or military), then we probably will see moves against him. If he makes a major political blunder (in Russian political terms), there are those who would move to take him out in a heartbeat (pun intended).

I will note that while I am sure Vladimir sees Russia as the senior partner in the Russia-Iran activities, I am not sure Iran sees it that way. In fact, I’m pretty sure they don’t which raises interesting possibilities.

Russia and Vladimir are presenting an image (illusion) of calm and unity to the world. It reminds me a lot of the USSR which did so even when literally bloody infighting was ongoing. Much was kept out of the public eye, at least until a new group stood in review along the Kremlin walls. That is happening right now I think, and while we could end up with a public meltdown I get the feeling a number of people/groups are trying to keep things out of the public eye.

Which is what makes Russia/Soviet watching so interesting. It’s trying to see past the illusions and find out what is going on beneath the surface. That there is a lot of movement underway right now is a given; but, the hard part is trying to see where the movements and currents from the movement lead. The big fish/strong man may not be what they seem, for the solid position they hold may be in whole or in part a Potemkin village. The person or persons who move against them often don’t seem to last long, as the next big fish/strong man was simply using them. Stalin and Khrushchev come to mind in that case.

Right now, Vladimir is standing tall and showcasing a mighty position of strength. How much of that position is real, and how much is illusion, is the key. There are people lined up and ready to take his place however they have to. Which, if any, of them survive to do it is the question. The ones to watch are those who profess loyalty and actively support Vladimir, and have privately and quietly indicated they would only consider stepping up at great need (and in the absence of Vladimir) for the good of Russia.

Sometime soon I need to do a post on the real lessons from Ukraine, focusing on data and flexibility. Quite a few are fixated on drones, and missing a key point.

That’s a run down of some of what is happening on the world. For more on what is going on inside the world, check out Volcaholic on X. There is a lot of volcanic activity underway beneath our feet, and his posts on strange and interesting weather and other phenomena are fun and interesting. Check it out.

More soon.

History

Those who don’t learn history are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past. If you don’t teach history, it is much easier to deliberately repeat it because the marks don’t know any better. Also, keep in mind that it’s not a perfect repetition as there are some differences with each repeat.

Sarah has a good post up on history, red of tooth and claw, and why what happened Oct. 7 is not a surprise in a historical context. In fact, I agree it probably is the norm in more parts of the world than people think.

I simply watch our borders, especially the Southern, and all the military-age males who are coming in all alone. Quite a few of them are from the Middle East as well as other Muslim countries. It is documented that hundreds have made it in, one wonders what the real numbers are given the millions of people that have been allowed to flood in by the Biden Regency.

First the Saturday people. Then the Sunday. They say what they mean, and we should be making note of it. If you think it can’t happen here…

Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Be prepared.

Quick Friday Update

Weather is doing a number on me, which bites on more than one level. Had hoped to do some baking today, wanting to experiment with smoked brown sugar in some chocolate cookies. Thinking it should pair well with dark chocolate. Not looking good for that. Was able to make a fresh batch of chili-lime mayo yesterday, which is a start towards being able to do real cooking again.

Also, no matter how I feel, plan to go help with the Christmas Market and Village at the church I recently started attending. I’m still limited in what I can do, but thing is I can do a bit and want to help out as they have been most welcoming to me.

Started active range of motion work yesterday and am happy even though feeling it a bit. So happy to be able to do it. Few more weeks then we can kick it up even more.

Got some sleep for a change, but between weather and melatonin, had some of the weirdest dreams in a while. One set included the Indiana Guard Reserve (state guard, not national) being federalized (! though it has happened) to go deal with an alien incursion/landing (in southern Indiana?). Some of my least favorite officers active duty or otherwise popped up in that one either as themselves or combined into one character. Throw in a civilian contractor who wanted everyone to use the old green cylinder duffels and was refusing to transport anything else (or weapons), and it was wild.

Especially as the “leadership” was assuring us that looking sharp and strong words were all that were needed, as the aliens were an unknown group called the Posleen. If you read science fiction, you know them. Two of us had a clue, but… I can live without more dreams like that for a while, thank you.

Also, if anyone expected Hamass to do anything other than refuse to follow the rules, kill multiple in a terrorist attack, and otherwise launch multiple rockets against Israel while under cease fire, please hang your head in shame. If you honestly are surprised corporate media is pinning all the blame on Israel, please put a paper bag over your head as you stand there in abject shame. I really didn’t expect them to release those women, especially since they are all of an age to be considered spoils of war. Forget the exact proper term for that type of slave, but…

More soon.

GOTH Matrix

I mentioned yesterday that I want to implement my GOTH (Go/Gone To Hell, the plan for when it has gone to hell and plans A-Z are out the window) plan to move out West early next year. Between texting with a friend and some exchanges elsewhere, thought it might be good to lay out the plan and the decision matrix behind it. Or behind them, as I actually have a couple of them, one for getting out West and one just to get out of Indy at need. Let me explain a bit.

The fact is, I do agree with those who have recommended I move out West for my health. I felt much better out there, and loved the area around Tombstone in particular. However, a two week trip is not enough time to explore, then explore in detail, any one area. The good GOTH plan for moving out West is basically to get out there, then explore and move to a final location if and as needed. The ultimate GOTH plan being, of course, to load up as much as possible if things come completely apart in the world and head West.

I do have a GOTH plan to stay in state and just get away from Indy at need. This would be activated if health issues cropped up that needed to be addressed or required long-term care. Since my insurance would not transfer out of state, I would need to stay in state but want to get out of very blue Indianapolis. I want out regardless, as the current administration has turned this city into a hellhole where I end up praying for the dead and wounded each morning. May rant on that a bit more later.

Thing is, the decision matrix behind each is much the same. While I do appreciate suggestions on where to go, they have to be evaluated in context of the decision matrix.

First Block: Housing Cost. After getting hit by lightning, I did take early retirement from Social Security (SS). I do have a small stipend to go with it, but pretty much wherever you draw the poverty line, I’m at or below it. Yes, I have filed for disability and am now in the kabuki dance that process has become. Initial claim denied, things dragging along while they wait for you to either die of natural causes or suicide. After all, the death benefit is a pittance compared to what they may have to pay out if you win your case. Yes, I am cynical at the racket and lawyer enrichment program the process has become. Not joking about the hoping you die in the years they drag it out either, as they really are hoping for that.

So, I have a limited range I can afford in regards rent, which is what I probably should do while I go out, explore, and look to settle. That said, I got some advice back a couple of years ago and have taken what steps I can to restore my credit rating and otherwise make myself a candidate to buy a home. Don’t have a down payment or anything, just working the score and to hopefully get where I might can build up such a payment.

Now, what I’m looking for is someplace where I can live and have all my stuff that is in storage there, whether still in storage in the house/garage or where I can use it. I miss my books and kitchen gear! It would be nice if I had some semi-secure area in which to do a bit of gardening. In fact, would love to build and use some raised beds for herbs and various vegetables.

I would consider an apartment or space in a senior residence if such location tolerated cigars, drinking, and was run by people who believe in preparedness. So long as I have my stuff and the the ability to do a small bit of gardening, and not have to put up with strict rules…

Second Block: Red area only. If things go as they seem to be going, blue cities and areas are going to become deathtraps. If you thought the summer of love a couple of years ago was bad, I’m very worried we ain’t seen nuthin yet (name that song!).

Third Block: Medical. Wherever I do settle down needs to be within about thirty minutes of a decent primary care facility. I hope not to need such, and really want to avoid doctors and hospitals as much as I can, but that’s not likely. On top of that, I need to be within one to two hours of top-level medical care. The local can treat routine, but if there are heart or other issues, I need to be within transfer distance or easy driving distance.

Fourth Block: Gun and Defense Laws. Thanks to people like Guy Relford, Indiana has some of the best gun laws in the nation. There are very few place I can’t enter while carrying, and our Stand Your Ground and Castle Doctrine laws are very good. I really wish we could get the law changed to allow you to protect your property/place of business, but don’t see that happening soon. Also, municipalities can’t do their own thing and override state law on firearms and self-defense. So, looking for as close to what we have here in the areas where I’m considering moving.

Fifth Block: People. As much as part of me would love to go be a desert hermit somewhere, I do need to be around people. I need to be where people can and will check on me. I also very much want to be around people who are into being prepared and share some similar interests. Which means I need to find people like some of you, or members of Baen’s Bar, the MHI crowd, etc. I also want enough community where I might could even look at dating. After all, I might find some sweet young thing with vision problems or such that might be interested in me. I can dream.

Sixth Block: Resources. The area needs to have a decent grocery store and be within reasonable driving distance (again, one to two hours) of specialty/larger food centers such as a good international grocery. Decent food is nice. It would be nice if they have the same pharmacy I’m using, but that’s workable. There also has to be a Y or gym that gives seniors a discount and has what I need for my workout and health. Also, looking at some fairly distinct religious options. If the area has a couple of other specialty options (cigar store, cough), that’s a plus.

Seventh Block: Water. Area needs to have decent water and no near-term water/aquifer issues.

Eighth Block: Border. Given all that is going on with the Southern border, prefer to keep my distance and ensure that where I do end up is defensible on several levels.

There are a couple of other minor qualifiers, but that hits the most important ones. Now, let’s take a quick look at how this plays out.

New Mexico is out, particularly given the current Reichsgovernor. Pity, there are some wonderful locations there and I love the area north of Santa Fe. Dean Ing used to highly recommend Ruidoso and the area around it.

Benson, Arizona is one area where I’ve looked. If I win the lottery and can convince the owner of the Titan missile silo to sell, I’d head there in a heartbeat. Near Tombstone, decent/acceptable primary care, easy transport by ground or air to advanced care in Tuscon, gym, don’t have to try to surf space debris down to it, etc. Drawbacks are primarily in the resource area, and the fact it is a blue area. Water is also an issue. They have a rental tax that pushes things out into barely afford/can’t afford area. Yes, there are nearby cities that don’t, but the resources, people, and water problems just get worse. Sierra Vista has a higher cost of living than I can go right now. The border is a huge issue for the area.

I really love the area around Ft. Davis, Texas. Alpine fits many aspects of the matrix, but between the border and being more than two hours to get to major medical and other resources…

Right now, two places that are under consideration are San Angelo and Abilene, Texas. Both offer a lot of good resources and fit pretty much all the right boxes in the matrix. Abilene is ahead in some ways because it has a few more resources and is a bit closer to Dallas/Ft. Worth.

I really would like to visit the area around Winslow and Flagstaff, Arizona as there may be some good options there.

One option that has been suggested by several parties is to find some place to store my stuff and use an RV to explore. The primary drawback to that is finances, but it would be a good way to go. If I can find a way to do it, it would be well worth doing I think.

In terms of in-state GOTH, the same considerations apply. I would probably need to be within one to two hours of Indy, probably not too far from either I-65 or I-74 south of Indianapolis. Well away from Indy and the ring counties (I have a very impolite way of referring to the area). North does nothing to mitigate weather and there are resource issues. South, while sparser pickings, seems to be the better option.

Rants on the hellhole Indy has become, the Indy GOP (the party of higher taxes and bigger government — seriously, when the Dems say you need to cut taxes…), and related issues can wait for another day.

If you have suggestions that fit the matrix, please do sound off.