Aviation/Aerospace – The Laughing Wolf

Louisville Crash Preliminary

Just saw the preliminary report from the MD-11 crash in Louisville (Main Page, Preliminary PDF). As for the cause, no surprise but want to go back and check one thing on maintenance before commenting on such.

One thing I can say is that I expect this will end the use of MD-10/MD-11 planes in the U.S. The issues with the pylons and attachments are ongoing and it is not clear that even aggressive inspection and maintenance will be sufficient. Or, rather, it is going to be costly to operations. It’s also more than the direct costs: it is going to be insurance, litigation (and threats thereof), and public relations in regards continued use.

That said, it will be interesting to see what comes out of the testing being done at the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) labs. A soft landing in this case might be a recommendation by the NTSB that the 10/11 be retired, which the FAA could then make a directive. This could allow various insurance and other protections to proceed.

In a way, it’s a bit sad. The plane (s, I am referring to the 10/11s as one) has been a wide-body heavy workhorse, though with some stigma. A lot of that came from the 3-engine design of it and the L-1011 TriStar. Both were advanced aircraft in terms of technology, and there were some accidents that resulted in the public being wary of them at first.

I seem to remember a movie being made about the L-1011 crash in the Everglades that brought up the story that the ghost of one of the crewmembers killed in the crash was reported to have said that there would never be another crash of a L-1011. If a ghost did say that (great TV and propaganda, not so sure it’s real history) they were wrong, but it was many years before there was another crash.

The crash in Louisville is very similar to the crash in Chicago a number of years back. Same engine involved, similar pylon issues though that one was blamed on using forklifts to remove/replace the engines if I remember correctly. From what I was reading in the preliminary, I really think the metalurgical tests are going to pretty well make or break the future of the plane.

I have flown as a passenger on the L-1011 and the DC-10 (not sure about the 11), and have both loaded and done pushback on cargo DC-10 & 11s. So glad to do pushbacks with a batmobile versus a tug, as they truly are heavies (esp. loaded). This made using a tug not particularly fun, whereas the batmobiles would pick up the nose wheel and made pushing and turning a breeze (and even fun).

The three-engine widebodies had range and capacity. They filled a particular niche in cargo operations that can be covered but not necessarily fully replaced. For certain routes and operations, they really were the best choice.

That said, I’m not sure the pylon issues can be overcome. Even if they can, how insurers and others react to them continuing to be used is going to drive a lot of decisions. Air transport is costly enough as it is. If insurance and other costs go up too much, the planes will be gone even if a way is found to keep them flying. If I were in an air cargo C-suite right now, I’d be looking at my options very carefully and with an eye towards moving away from use of the 10s-11s.

Nor is it necessarily a loss to the air cargo companies. It is not uncommon, as I understand it, for those companies to buy the planes, then sell them to an outside company, who then leases the plane back to the air cargo company who then operates it including basic maintenance. Yes, tax laws and regulations are the big reason for this (again, as I understand it). Now, if I were the company that actually owned the plane, I’d be looking at options and for an overseas buyer.

And, yes, I am still monitoring the NTSB investigation into the DC crash (main page). The transcripts of the radio and internal coms is interesting. I’ve got my suspicions on what happened and what is likely to be in the final report. That said, still not jumping in as I may have missed something. I do think closing that corridor was long overdue. I am also still waiting for the final on the air ambulance crash as well.

More soon.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Jared Issacman: YES!

I am beyond happy that Trump has re-nominated Jared Issacman to lead NASA. It is well beyond time, I don’t think his original nomination should have been pulled in the first place, and the fact that so many in the space-industrial complex are unhappy fills me with great joy.

If you haven’t worked there, it is almost impossible to describe the mess that is NASA. It went from “Can-Do!” to “Can’t Do” with increasing layers of risk-averse management in an amazingly short time. Almost any hint of failure, or the possibility of failure, would get good ideas and programs cancelled. Think I’ve already told the story of the Tethered Satellite System, but it is a classic example of zero-sum safety run amok (the loss of Challenger being different but resulting in the loss of life).

NASA has strayed so far from it’s official and core mission it’s not funny. It’s one reason I’m glad to know that there is already some form of “Athena” (and love the leak as they leaked a Canary Trap). NASA should not be in the launch business (never should have gotten this far), nor should it be the single-route into space on any level.

Issacman is the single best shot we have for saving NASA from itself and those growing rich off it’s indulgences. It needs “Athena” in a big way, as that is the way to ensuring the future of humanity, and that humanity has a future. One can only hope that for once, Congress will move quickly and decisively to get him into position. It can’t happen soon enough.

Also, if he happens to read this, I hope he will move on the necessary research to ensure humanity can reproduce in microgravity and, to quote Bugs Bunny, GET US OUT OF HERE!

Another Old Memory

Again, X strikes again. In response to a post on X, I remembered the time a group of unsuspecting passengers participated in a mock carrier landing with a 747.

My go-to airline used to be Delta, and the second time I worked for NASA I usually made Platinum-level frequent flyer by March of each year. Domestically, Delta at the time was very good. Other than some issues with things being stolen out of luggage (and oddly enough one time returned), things went fairly well.

Internationally however, I had a huge issue with the fact that one of their major partners was Air Chance, aka Air France. There was a chance the flight would not be cancelled, there was a chance it would take off on time, there was a chance it would arrive on time, and you get the picture. It was also a given that Air Chance would lie to your face about any number of things.

I will give them credit for one thing: they knew they were lying and while they didn’t really care, they had a unique way of dealing with the customer service issues. After having been lied to about arriving on time; about having my connecting flight delayed for us on it; and, about a few other things, I and others were put aboard a later flight to the same destination. Pretty much the entire plane was filled with passengers who had been lied to and delayed. The flight crew came down the aisle with carts full of wine and booze. Pick your bottle, shut up, and be quiet we are not going to deal with it. By the time we landed, we may have been still PO’d but we didn’t care. Amazing what a bottle of good cognac will do to help you cope with the unchangeable. I will say that from then on I told the transportation people to not put me on anything Air Chance and have avoided them like the plague.

Which brings me to the story seen above. The flight was supposed to be Delta, but was (of course) Air Chance. We did the trans-Atlantic bit, came into land, and for some odd reason the pilot decided to re-enact a carrier landing. Now, to be fair, I’m not sure that’s accurate as there are several other possible reasons he decided to land on the overrun and stop the plane before the first cross taxiway. Not sure what those could have been (chemically induced perhaps?) but there may have been a reason of which I am not aware.

Had it been a real carrier, I’m pretty sure we would have hooked the first wire. Seriously, I think we hit on the overrun. We hit hard and we braked hard. Not entirely joking that we could have stopped on a carrier deck. To say the plane made odd noises is an understatement. We stopped. We stayed stopped for about ten minutes at a very busy airport.

When we moved, the plane made VERY odd noises and parts of the plane did not appear to move in unison. During our sitting phase, I had already made a mental bet we would have to be towed in. Still amazed we were not. As it is, with a mechanical cacophony, we eventually made it to international arrivals. I heard later that the plane was then towed (with no passengers or other witnesses around) to maintenance.

That was almost as much fun as the time we passed the abort point on takeoff and were still on the ground. Different flight, but another time I thought we were going to make the news in a bad way… Remind me and I will tell that tale one day.

Blackhawk Investigation

F0r those that have been waiting, the NTSB is now doing a three day hearing on the crash of the Blackhawk and a commuter plane at Reagan. I’m not expecting a lot of surprises, but stay tuned. There are good reasons for letting things play out, and not making snap judgements even when some things may appear obvious. Sometimes the obvious isn’t real, and sometimes the obvious is even worse than it appears. Let the process play out. Then render judgement.

Re-Thinking Thinking About The Unthinkable

The good CDR Salamander has just put up a must-read post about nuclear war, nuclear theory, and preventing ‘the unthinkable.’ It is very well written; very well considered; and, refreshingly honest about where we are in terms of deterrence.

There are several points he makes with which I fully agree and endorse fully. We’ve been stuck in a mindset that is indeed “stuck in aspic” (LOVE that whole paragraph!) with the mouldering corpse of Kahn-ic thought for far too long. The so-called elite thinkers have little touch with reality that I can find, can’t agree on definitions to save their lives, and given that he is right (very) and they have not gotten a single non-nuclear war right in more than fifty years is less than re-assuring. I would also note that the times nuclear launch was averted it was not by the elites; rather, good and unpretentious men who saw the data didn’t add up and didn’t act to launch. In fact, of the times of which I am aware, it was the elites (and the politicians they advised) who had pushed things hot.

He’s also absolutely right about war games and war gaming things out. Remember, I wasn’t allowed to be OPFOR because I didn’t play the war game game. I played to win. I played to try to use them to figure out problems and solutions; which is a sin in the eyes of some for whom the games were a way to game pet theories into acceptance and use.

Two other points to make. First, I’ve never been comfortable with a triad. Remove one and it’s no longer stable. You need multiple legs. Second, I have always thought MAD was an abomination to God and to Man. It was and is morally, ethically, socially, and philosophically reprehensible. MAD is countervalue and gives you Philip Wylie and Triumph, or On The Beach. Disgusting concept and we can and should do better.

Sal gives a LOT of good food for thought. I would like to add the following to the mix, however.

First, while not nuclear, we should be looking at adding KEVs to the mix. If we can drop a deep penetrator down air shafts, we can drop a KEV. Which also means we need to consider weapons in space, which is a can of worms but one I think has already been opened. KEVs are flexible and yield can be adjusted via speed. When I say flexible, look at what Jerry Pournelle wrote about Project Thor, which was basically a crowbar with a semi-smart guidance package. Then look at some more recent work. Thing is, a range of options with a lot more flexibility than a nuke is likely to.

Second, we need to be looking at defense. Yes, Trump has announced Golden Dome and I have some hope for it. However, keep in mind that politicians on the left have done everything in their power to stop any and all work on defense against nuclear attack. We need layers and options, and the thing is some of what was done for SDI is still out there and works. The more layers, the better. Also, keep in mind those politicians who pushed for no defense were happy for you to die, though they would likely be secure and safe in their shelters.

Third, we need to look at civil defense options. I don’t think the program of the 50s is needed; but, we do need some civil defense. As I’ve noted before, there are aspects of it that are useful in other situations such as storm, fire, etc. It’s a concept that needs to be explored if we are going to have a serious talk on nuclear reform (including ways to keep the genie in the bottle).

Finally, I do think we also need to consider the need to transfer nukes to safety when portions of Europe fall to the invaders. Along with building a bulkwark in the East as discussed here with related discussion here.

I know some of you have experience and made some good points before in previous posts on nuclear war. Sound off here and there, keeping in mind this is a public forum.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Case For New Space Embryology Experiments

As I mentioned yesterday in my post about Breakfast with Instapundit, we verified that there was never a follow-up to the Frog Embryology Experiment (FEE) on Spacelab J/STS-47. I talked about that experiment, and it’s implications, in my Sex In Space post a while back. For those interested in the mission, there is a link to download a PDF of the mission brochure here.

I will also note that while many missions did 90-Day and 1-Year science reports, I can’t find any record of such for Spacelab J. In researching the Frog Embryology Experiment I found a potential reason for now follow-up experimentation in that the lead investigator (PI), Kenneth A. Souza, tragically passed away unexpectedly while still quite young. However, I was able to get in contact with one of his co-investigators, Steven D. Black, who was kind enough to share a copy of a paper done on the experiment and some general observations with me.

I’ve read the paper (PNAS, Vol. 92, March 1995, pp 1975-1978), and confirmed that my memory of “funky” tadpoles in orbit was partially correct. To quote from the abstract: “Eggs were fertilized in vitro, and although early embryonic stages showed some abnormalities, the embryos were able to regulate and produce nearly normal larvae.” As I noted in the previous post, they did grow into normal frogs that could reproduce normally once back on Earth. There were also some differences in lung size between the microgravity and 1G tadpoles/frogs, but this did resolve as well over time with exposure to a 1G environment. But, what happens if there is no rapid return to 1G?

However, the authors of the study (and paper) note that more experimentation in regards amphibians and other vertebrates. Sadly, this has not happened and I think it is time to do so. Especially given that within the next few years (if all goes well) we are likely to become a truly interplanetary species. The U.S., China, and others are looking at lunar bases. Elon has his eye on Mars (and beyond to the asteroids I suspect). I’m with Elon in respect to having such settlements as “lifeboats” if bad things happen on Earth. Given that we are in a major change of how things are done (see here if you didn’t read it the first tiime), and those who have been in power are not happy at seeing it end, not to mention politicians are fairly stupid overall, I think lifeboats are a great idea. Frankly, lots of them. I want The Island Worlds and I want them ASAP.

But, to truly have that and to deal with the fact that boys and girls are going to be boys and girls whether on Earth, Mars, the Moon, etc., we really need to be sure we understand embryology under those other circumstances. The original abnormalities seen in the FEE are a concern for me. Yes, they did appear to self-regulate and recover; but, do we really understand the “why” in either case? Do we know that this will hold true for other experiments or future generations? No, we don’t, and so we need to get such data rather quickly. Which means ISS is right out and we need to make full utilization of commercial space.

On the previous post, you my good and kind readers, helped flesh out the basic hardware and protocol. Let’s expand on that a bit, and see what we can come up with as a suggestion for those who can do something about this need.

First, the hardware will require a glovebox or similar concept for in vitro fertilization, and microgravity “living quarters” for both amphibian and mammalian subjects. It will also need four centrifuges that can contain “living quarters”/development chambers for both amphibian and mammalian subjects. The centrifuges should be divided as follows: 1G (control); 0.5G; 0.38G (Mars); and 0.16G (Luna). While it would be nice to have an additional centrifuge at 0.75G, it’s not essential and this beast is going to be enough of weight and space constraint as it is. Especially since some form of sonogram and/or other imaging is going to be needed to monitor the mammalian embryology and development. We need to be seeing what’s happening before birth.

Hopefully storage will be available outside of the experiment hardware for fixed or preserved samples; and some provision will be needed for returning live specimens to Earth on a regular basis. Otherwise, storage of preserved and live specimens needs to be incorporated in the hardware design. I will note that the Spacelab Frog Environmental Unit (FEU) could make a good start for helping with an updated design.

Frogs having been frequent fliers over the years, from sounding rocket experiments to the FEE on Spacelab, they make a good place to start. Lots of good data extant for comparison, known quantity in terms of resilience, handling, etc.

Where we have less knowledge (to the best of my knowledge) is mammalian development. While monkeys have flown in space, their size does not make them good subjects for such experimentation. Mice come to mind, but may not be optimal. We need rapid development and maturity, small size, and fairly resilient. Thoughts?

The basic protocols would be very similar to the FEE. Fertilize, grow, gather data, gather samples, and once mature start the next generation. For amphibian and mammalian I’d like to see this run out 10-15 generations. If a regular return service is available, it would be good to return at least one male and one female of each generation to Earth (mammalian, more better) and several of the amphibians of each generation to see how they do over time.

My two largest concerns, again, are normal development and the differences seen in lung size/development between microgravity and 1G tadpoles. Yes, they all did “normalize” and grow into normal adult frogs. But, will that happen without exposure or a full return to a 1G environment? Will this hold true for mammals? Pretty important questions, and just the start of some that are occurring to me. We are a predator species optimized for a 1G environment, what happens when we develop in a totally different environment?

Okay, there are the main concerns, some thoughts on hardware and protocol. Let’s flesh this out a bit and see if we can find someone who can make this happen.

EDIT I: Added link to PDF of PNAS paper.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

More Soon

Things got busy, and I even managed to get in a quick 20+ miles on the bike yesterday afternoon. Last few miles were on me as I succeeded in running down the battery while out. More on that and the possible fundraiser soon.

I’m also in contact with one of the co-investigators for the Frog Embryology Experiment on Spacelab J. Sadly, the person I knew as the PI passed away unexpectedly a few years ago. However, the CI has shared some information with me that will be in a post soon.

Also, working on my action plan post conference. Implemented the easy part, now working on the rest.

Standby, more soon.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

DCA & Philadelphia Follow-Up

For those interested, the preliminary report on DCA is out, and if you are unfamiliar with the process, it is mostly focused on what happened. Not, repeat, not, the how and why of what happened. That comes with later reports. I’m looking for a written copy as it should have basic pilot info (hours, medical, etc.). The barometric pressure issue is being emphasized, and they are looking at how it may have effected the altimeter(s) and other systems. Most importantly, the report makes urgent recommendations about Route 4 and closing same when certain runways are in use. The full conference is here:

On the Philadelphia crash, the report is written and is worth a read. Again, it is a preliminary and is more focused on what happened, not the how or why. Of note for me, it seems the Cockpit Voice Recorder wasn’t working and appears not to have been recording for several years. Pilots were in contact at the time of the accident and no distress call was received. Given the state of the plane (and occupants) I expect reconstruction and any medical exams to take a while and possibly be limited.

Again, it will take time. That’s something few seem willing to grant, but this should be a painstaking process that leaves no stone unturned. So far, it is on par with other investigations. We will see what happens.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Worlds As Islands Afloat In The Sea Of Stars

There are two posts I should be working on today. The first would deal with replacing NATO and nuclear trip wires, which frankly is rather tiresome and even somewhat depressing at this point given how much I’ve had to write on the nuclear topic these last three years. The second is to build on this post advocating an X-Prize for asteroid protection and have some fun.

So, for those and other reasons, I’m going to sit back with a nice glass of old vine zinfandel, and play among the stars and hopefully take you with me. I’ve got some ideas that even now have some exploring them, but I want to throw this out there to see if some of the other ideas find a place where they can take root.

Let me start by saying Elon is very correct in focusing on Mars as a staging ground for taking humanity to the stars. For all that it is at the bottom of a gravity well, it is a well far shallower than Earth. It also offers a variety of opportunities for habitation and more importantly self-sufficient habitation (though I’m going to make a suggestion to improve that here soon).

As I’ve noted a time or two before, Earth is indeed the cradle of humanity — but crib death is still a thing. Right now, we are facing several cusps if you will. Argentina has been turned around and, barring misfortune, saved. Milei has done wonders there and my sincere hope is that Trump 2.o and team can do the same here. Things are off to a great start, but victory is not guaranteed either in terms of finances or of liberty. Remember, the enemy gets a vote and while they are off balance now, cornered rats and desperate people do desperate things. Ukraine can go sideways and hot in a heartbeat; China could be stupid enough to try to take Taiwan; Kim could have an oops with a missile (deliberately or legitimate oops); and, well, you get the picture.

Frankly, mankind needs to be off Earth and spread out in self-sufficient settlements and in large enough populations to survive anything reasonable. To listen to some of the ‘oh we shouldn’t do it crowd’ there’s no way to save humanity if the sun goes super-super-nova or Ragnarku IV comes in and blows up the whole solar system so we just shouldn’t even try. Bull Feathers.

Humanity has always been at its best, and achieved great things that also raised the standard of living across the board, when there were frontiers. Others have explained this far more eloquently and in great detail, but we are at our best when we have frontiers and challenges. Space offers us that in spades, and without many of the issues and problems that were part and parcel of our expansion on Earth.

Mars is a first stop, and Luna and other moons offer the chance for large-scale self-sufficient settlements. We should explore and pursue such. However, I would like to see some of what Dr. Yoji Kondo explored in science and science fiction (writing as Eric Kotani). His book, along with the redoubtable John Maddox Roberts, The Island Worlds, is a good place to start, and is part of the inspiration for the title of this piece.

Actually, we should start with the original book in the series Act of God but it is hard to find even used I understand. And there is good reason to start there as it sets forth an important start to space exploitation that in part inspired a suggestion or two I made in my post on X-prizing asteroid defense. For humanity to live and thrive in space, we need water. There is lots and lots of water available, if we have the will and skill to take it.

Frankly, we need to be looking at comets and more as the ability to separate water from chemical bonds on the moon may not be as easy as previously thought. I’ve been watching a number of discussions amongst those who really know what they are talking about (see Dennis Wingo on X) and we need to be looking at other sources. There does appear to be ice (to varying degrees) on Luna, Mars, and elsewhere, but it is limited. There is potentially a lot more out there in terms of comets and more that could supply space settlements for thousands of years. Even a large number of settlements. Hence, one of the scenarios for the X-prize post is if the asteroid has ice that’s quite a resource to control. Metals and such matter, but water is indeed life.

And speaking of life, I’m going to jump ahead just a bit and point out that asteroid colonies offer a far greater chance for the expansion of the human species. As noted in this post on Sex in Space, we do not appear to know if we can reproduce in space. If there indeed have not been follow-on experiments to the Frog Embryology Experiment, we need to do them and keep in mind that asteroids may offer the best solution. Also, keep in mind that experiments (SCREWBA and the like) on Earth were not done in microgravity but neutral buoyancy, and there is quite a difference between the two. Even people who know better can make mistakes on that.

Okay, back onto track I hope. Planetary bases make sense as a first step out into the solar system. Mars makes a lot of sense, and if you look at the Boring Company and other business ventures of one Elon Musk, you might notice a plan. Living on Mars will require going underground or into mountains and the like because of radiation and solar hazards. Nice that he has a proven means already in place to do that. And if you think that is luck or happenstance, I have a bridge for sale…

But, to supply planetary bases — particularly with water — is going to take something more. To truly start exploiting the resources of the solar system, we need to get out into, and settle, the asteroid belt. This was what Yoji Kondo explored in several of his books, and there are a number of ways to do it along with good reasons to do it.

Nice thing about even just plain rock asteroids: they offer the chance to either mine into them to create shelters and colonies, or they offer the ability to build (pre-fab is great) structures in place on the surface. Need extra shielding? Burrow into a large asteroid and have fun. Need gravity? Simple, trim and spin. This gives you the ability to generate gravity gradients that run from micro/zero gravity up to several times Earth gravity at need.

Why would you need it? Various industrial processes can and do make use of gravity. Also, if we find that certain levels of gravity are needed for successful reproduction in space, they/it can be provided. I really want to see this addressed before the first Mars mission as if it has not already happened (cough) we need to make sure that sex does not lead to tragedy. Nor should we be experimenting using people. That is just plain wrong, and is very easy to prevent.

There are other reasons, including food production. I suspect that aquaculture will provide a lot of protein for space colonies be they planetary or otherwise. However, mankind seems to crave other forms of protein in addition or in replacement. So, having the ability to raise such makes sense to some degree.

If you want a fuller discussion of exploitation and why bases and such are good for that, go read the full series of books. It’s only about four, but they touch on a number of interesting and important scientific theories. Metals, rare Earths, and more are out there if we can but go and claim them. Do your processing in deep space and there go your pollution worries. Heck, do them in orbit and the same holds.

From the point of view of ensuring humanity’s survival in the face of realistic issues, spreading out into the asteroid belt just makes good sense. It is far enough to mitigate some of the effects of the Sun; and, having meters to kilometers of rock between you and a Carrington Event or worse is a very good thing. Also, having humanity spread out around the complete solar system is a very good thing from a survival standpoint. It makes us much harder to kill as a species.

Also, keep in mind that asteroid bases and colonies, or even stations and extraction centers within the belt, dont have to deal with significant gravity wells. It makes it much easier to get around and to get processed materials back to Earth, Mars, or where needed. If we want to launch further out into the solar system, again, this is the place to do it.

Mars is the first step, but if you want to truly make humanity an astral species, and take Mankind to the stars, you are going to do it from the Island Worlds.

Just some thoughts to share.

Asteroid Threat? X-Prize It

Over on X, Stephen Fleming was talking about the need to get on serious asteroid defense. Quick Aside: if you are serious about space and space exploration/exploitation, you should know and follow Stephen. In response to his post and a number of comments, I made a simple suggestion: X-Prize the mission as NASA is not up to it in my opinion.

In the long run, it will be a lot less expensive and likely to drive development of some key industries — not to mention creating new and innovative technologies and applications — than trying to run it as yet another government program. Make it open ended in all the key details: launch systems undefined, method undefined, tech undefined: the only thing that should be defined is success (asteroid does not hit Earth) and if there are any secondary objectives that need to take place (exploration, detection, etc) at the same time.

Make sure that teams can win rather than an individual company. I can think of some interesting and potentially effective partnerships right off the top of my head. It also has the chance to push the launch industry along and get some real competition to Space-X underway, which would be a good thing.

Also, though it would require some long-overdue revisions to space law/treaties, give the successful company twenty-year (pick a period) rights to that asteroid or to any asteroid that poses a threat and is neutralized. Depending on the type of asteroid, there could be some nice materials to be extracted/exploited. If nothing else, novelty sales could be quite the thing. Think about it, what would you pay to own a knife or other object made from the asteroid that threatened Earth? Again, this is an opportunity to start bootstrapping orbital industry and making needed changes to space treaties/law.

Minimize the regulatory process as much as possible. Under the previous administration this was weaponized and that’s the last thing we need right now. Use this as a means to identify problems while impact odds are low, so that we have an effective and robust system/options in place for real need.

Since there is already some huffing and puffing over my contention that NASA is not up to this, let me lay out the basics. First, I have done work for NASA as a contractor on both Spacelab and later SPD/Commercial. I grew up in the 60s on NASA and can-do. Heck, Von Braun himself recruited my cousin Jimmy to join his team and was involved in those heady days. Those days, however, are gone.

Yes, NASA has demonstrated that asteroid deflection can be done. Exercise for the student: look up the full timeline on that, from when it was first proposed to actual implementation. Then look up the budget for that over those years. NASA can still do some amazing things if given enough time and massive budgets.

As part of that, consider also that NASA has not successfully designed and implemented a new man-rated launch system since the mid-70s (STS). The current Constellation/Orion/WhateverElseTheyCallIt literally costs more than a billion dollars per launch, they have launched how many (?) and I could go on but there is no way to consider it a viable and successful system. Keep in mind that most (cough) NASA programs began decades ago.

Then, as I’ve mentioned before, there is the institutional culture of no failure. Not that failure is not an option, but that if there is even a chance something won’t work perfectly in view of the public, it tends to get canned. That also ties into the perfect safety issue, which tends to stifle innovation and more. There is more, but those are going to be two huge hurdles for getting anything done through NASA.

Put anything and everything on the table as an option, from nukes (the government has a small and obscure agency that actually owns all our nukes, DoD merely “leases” them so to speak) to a space broom. Nothing off the table, nothing can’t be tried as keep in mind that the prize only pays out for success.

For planetary defense of this nature, we need fast, we need nimble, we need innovation. Government is going to be the obstacle, not the facilitator. Doing this as an X-prize makes economic sense and opens the doors of economic and scientific advancement in space exploration/exploitation.

Just my two cents…

Oh, and if you missed this wonderful bit at Instapundit a while back:

O it’s Elon this, an’ Elon that, an’ “Chuck ‘im out, the cad!”;
But it’s “Elon, please, a rocket!” when the rocks are lookin’ bad.
When the rocks are lookin’ bad, my boys, the rocks are lookin’ bad,
O it’s “Save us, Mr. Elon!” when the rocks are lookin’ bad.