laughingwolf_qh33q8 – Page 59

The Trojan Safe

I could go off on a nice rant at Liberty Safe, but I fear many would miss the real problem and point. The real problem and point is that it is not just Liberty Safe, but a whole array of companies and products that will turn on you in a heartbeat.

For those that missed it, Liberty Safe was told by the FBI that they had a warrant in regards a Jan 6 persecution and, apparently, without verifying that warrant or what it allowed, Liberty provided the FBI a master code so they could open, search, and seize contents of the suspect. News to many was that such a thing existed; that Liberty did not have a more rigorous process in regards warrants; and, that Liberty did not hold it’s customers or their rights in high regard.

The backlash has been enormous, and Liberty is deservedly getting pounded by outraged customers and shedding business in a hurry. I say deservedly, as the owners of the company hate guns and gun owners, and have worked to undermine both since before they bought the company. Here’s a good takedown on that. No surprise they were so eager to assist the FBI.

Thing is, they are not alone. Do you know who owns the company from which you are buying products for your safety and security? Guess what, lot of situations like this.

Have a video doorbell or, like my landlord, have it and multiple cameras around the house? How secure is that service and what rights have you given to the company you bought it from? Have a fancy electronic deadbolt that opens when you cell phone gets near it and/or locks you can control from a phone app? Again, not very secure and you may well have given the company behind it rights to your data. How often do any of us read the entire legal agreement, much less understand some of the intense legalese?

How about your car? Again, your data and records of what you do when and where are not yours. Stephen Green has a pretty good takedown on that in this article. He also correctly notes how much data your phone is sending to others, and trust me it’s a huge amount that just increases every time you add an app.

If it has to do with the safety and security of your home and family, and it’s digital, you are not as secure as you think you are. Heck, while not part of your security have you checked to see how much data your smart TV is collecting on you, or how easy it is to activate cameras and microphones remotely? TVs, tablets, and more can and have been turned on their owners.

Even mechanical locks and other items can have a master code or a master key. My trust in mechanical padlocks went out the window decades ago when a cousin who worked for a power company showed me the ring of master keys for every major (and many minor) brands of padlocks they had so they could access any property at any time for repairs or maintenance.

So, that non-digital lock or locks you got for your front door — who made it? Do you know if they have a master key for it? Do you trust them to tell you if they did?

Before you buy a safe, look at who owns the company and where they stand. Check to see if they will admit to having a master code or if you can trust them to be honest with the answer. Same goes for any major purchase.

Start demanding better, and vote with your wallet for privacy and your rights. Small or large, each purchase can make a point and even now, a difference.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

They Didn’t Learn

And we are likely to pay. The so-called leaders who were the most draconian during COVID faced no sanctions of any kind for their illegal, high-handed, and unconstitutional orders. Heck, most of them have been re-elected despite all the damage they did. Just look at Indiana where human petri dish High Tax Holcomb was sailed merrily along raising taxes, and Boss Hogsbreath, the mayor of Indianapolis who went both missing and Screwloose at different times, is likely going to be re-elected. Look at Reichsgovernor Witmer in Michigan, along with so many more.

The true poster child of the lockdown left, however, was Gov. Grisham of NM. I’m really surprised she didn’t get more of a national stage (which seemed to be her goal) as she not only went full lockdown, but even shut down grocery stores for two (or more) weeks. Let the peasant’s starve! She also took full advantage to regulate liquor and other stores because she could. Where was the principled opposition to her draconian and over-reaching orders? Good question. I haven’t found any significant opposition to her then, or now.

Yes, now. Yesterday, Gov. Grisham declared the 1st and 2nd amendments null and void in the area of Albuquerque over a public health emergency of violence. She is also demanding and/or seizing a lot of info into types of guns, calibers, etc. and may be demanding it of local gun dealers. You don’t go after that info unless you intend to use it.

The Albuquerque chief of police has thanked the governor for her actions, though he has noted in a memo that enforcement will be by state-level resources. In other words, APD is not getting involved with making those arrests or decisions. There are a lot of problems with LE and prosecution in the Albuquerque area, and I leave that research up to you. I used to go out there on a regular basis for NASA, and saw the slide start. You get out from there, and things aren’t bad except for a spineless legislature and a fascist governor. The latter are why I have not looked at NM as a viable location.

A quick note for LE and those working for state and county governments, and not just in NM though they are the audience I hope to reach. I wrote a while back about the need to make decisions, as circumstances are putting people in the position of assisting, enforcing, or otherwise implementing illegal and unconstitutional orders The shadow of Nuremberg is upon us, and you have decisions to make. Will you be a good little servant and do as you are told, and join the ranks of the Stasi and party bureaucrats? Or, will you have the courage, honor, and integrity to refuse even if it means your job, or life? The choice is yours, and I will note that if you refuse to make a choice, you still have made a choice you just don’t have the integrity to admit to yourself.

For everyone else, be aware of who makes what choices. This is a chilling reminder that there are many who will cheerfully and willingly enforce illegal orders. There are even more who will keep the bureaucratic machine running so as not to rock the boat.

The governor, who seems to think she’s the Präsident der Republik Grisham, needs to be removed from office ASAP. I’m not sure what the mechanism is per the New Mexico constitution, but clear violations of the Constitution can’t be allowed to stand. This order and power grab needs an emergency injunction via the Supreme Court as well. Provided that court and others don’t wimp out again and declare that the citizens of the state don’t have standing to question their betters. Also, this does require New Mexico legislators and politicians (or even LE) with a spine and a brain — which seems to be in short supply.

This needs to be dealt with hard and fast, because if it isn’t, she may be the first but will not be the last. Expect to see every power-hungry wanna-be tyrant declare public health emergencies on a similar vein, and they won’t just be going after guns though they will at the start. Remember what has happened to every disarmed population in history… The Biden Regency and imperial governors are also hard at work to destroy the First Amendment, and will use these orders to advance that effort. So, find ways to call this out, to help those who can stomp it hard and fast in the courts, and to hold those abusing power accountable so that they suffer consequences, real consequences, for their actions.

Otherwise, the dark days I see coming will get here a lot sooner than they would otherwise. We’re still in the Golden Hour, but efforts like this, unless met, will erode that hour to uselessness.

Prayer Request

My youngest niece, A, lost her oldest son, G, this last Thursday. I would appreciate prayers for his soul, and for the comfort of his mother, family, and friends. Extra prayers for his mother very much appreciated.

G had health issues for a long time. Despite the challenges, he worked hard, graduated college, and was working on starting a career. Godspeed G.

Working Through

Sorry for the lite posting, need to get something up about Liberty Safe and privacy/security in the digital age. Meantime, part of the reason for the dearth resides in the interesting goings on with PT.

After a couple of snafus, the right paperwork finally got into the insurance company. Who did agree to six more sessions for now, and promptly backdated the process for about two weeks and said we had to have all six sessions done by the 16th of this month. Aren’t non-medical bureaucrats making medical decisions wonderful? No way those dates were set by anyone with any medical or therapeutic knowledge.

Basically, the time constraint came up Tuesday with the notice of the approval, and to get things done in a semi-sane manner overall, I had a session yesterday, late, and another this morning, early. The remaining sessions are spaced out a bit more sanely/competently. We are hoping yet more may be approved, but you never know.

One reason for more is that we are not just hitting issues from the surgery, but issues caused by the loss of mobility in the years prior to surgery. The lack of mobility caused muscles, particularly in the biceps/triceps to “pull up” or shrink, and the fun is now trying to get them stretched back out again. Same may apply to tendons and other things. For all that I’ve gotten back some of the long-lost mobility, there have been some interesting limits to pop up.

One is standing against a wall and not being able to get my arms back to the wall. There are other positions and movements where the muscles in the biceps and triceps scream and make life fun. So, adding in stretches and such to try to get things back to where they should be. It’s going to take a good bit more physical therapy. Hoping we can convince the insurance company to realize that.

Meantime, I’m exhausted as we are no longer doing what I have been doing. Instead, there is a lot of new stuff aimed at fixing the problems from the older issues, continuing the recovery from the replacement, and in trying to prepare the left shoulder to be replaced. The latter ends up hurting a lot more than the right, which mostly experiences discomfort these days.

I have a telecon with the surgeon next week to discuss when to do the left shoulder. Right now, looking at the end of October or the first week of November. That may change based on decisions by the insurance company or others who have a say. Also, I really do want to go see Loreena McKinnett in concert if at all possible. I will go still in a sling and on pain meds if needed, and if I can come up with the funds.

For now, we are going to continue to work on restoring full range of motion and strength in the right shoulder and arm. For as long as insurance allows. Once it doesn’t, well, we will see what happens but I’m not stopping because of some bureaucrat. We will also do what we can to prepare the left for replacement.

I’m also starting to look ahead towards moving. I had really wanted to do so this year, but it just wasn’t meant to be. Provided no other medical issues pop up (and the GI issues of the last two weeks is subsiding), I may be able to start taking steps as soon as February. Again, wait and see.

Hopefully I will be able to pick up some more physical therapy items here soon. Need a different ball, some foam rollers and such, and am going to look into a specialty item as well. It is amazing how much of the therapy gear you can get or improvise for about $20 an item (or less). Need to find some pool noodles on sale soon as they can be modified… Also, want to buy at least one more professional cold pack.

This may be the only post today. I’m exhausted as we pushed hard yesterday and today. More soon, promise.

Probability Cascades

Update Below

For about the last two years, I’ve semi joked about quantum probability cascades. Fact is, I wonder if I and other lightning strike/high-energy event survivors are not real-world examples of such a phenomena.

For a deep dive on quantum logic and probability, go here. You may note the rather important contributions of John von Neumann to the mix, and yes he is the person who not only made important points about computers (and AI) but also theorized about self-replicating robots.

That gets you the proper background. Now comes my very layman take, which for the purists who get the vapors is indeed very over simplified.

The human organism is an amazingly complex system, and that applies to probabilities as well. Leaving aside the existential for now, we are a walking mass of probability. While theoretically anything is possible, in each of us there are probabilities of developing cancer or other diseases, and having various systems in the body do different things. As I understand it, lots depends on energy. For example, if you have the probability (predisposition) to one or more cancers, it’s not a great idea to work with or around compounds that can increase that risk. Adds energy in a bad way.

Where probabilities are high something will happen, it’s probably going to happen. Where the probabilities are low, it’s not likely to happen absent a change in energy. Where there is such a change, usually a sudden influx of energy, you will find quantum probabilities flipping. Theoretically, as I understand it, it’s possible for high-order probabilities to flip to low-order, and it most definitely flips low-order to high.

I began to wonder about quantum probability cascades not only because of my own case, but in reading and talking about the cases of others hit by lightning or (high energy) electric shock survivors. When you talk about adding energy to a system, you can’t get much more literal. I think it a good research project for someone to take a look at all the medical and related issues that pop up for survivors. Fact is, many of the issues literally can’t be as a direct result of the event. And for all the internal burns (hard to detect and treat) and other issues, the number and range of problems seem to extend well beyond those effects.

For me, one area that makes me wonder about a quantum effect is my digestive system. In the lower part, one minor/low-probability issue is now no longer minor. Given this last week plus, I may be developing an issue or issues on the upper end. Short version is that every time I’ve eaten for the last week plus, I’ve bloated out with massive gas (along with a very acid stomach). Of itself, right now an annoyance, but just one more thing where various issues have flipped from low-order probability to high.

There’s nothing I can do about the situation as a whole, and rather than bitch and moan I try to figure things out even if such can only be done on the theoretical level. It honestly is beyond me as there are still issues with the mind including some trapping. However, I cast this out as bread on the waters in hopes that someone with a mind that fully works and is more attuned to quantum logic and probabilities than I might find it interesting and worth pursuing. Even if it gets shot down with prejudice. Either way gets the idea considered.

UPDATE 1: In talking with Snarksalot on Twitter, I need to note that not all the “flips” are going to be bad. Some are likely to be good. The difference between “good” and “bad” and what trips them one way or another is yet another issue for discussion and investigation.

Favorite Porn Video

Stirring the pot a little with the tale of my favorite porn video of all time, which turned out not to be porn. Despite the clear intentions of the couple involved.

If I still have the link or a download of the video, I can’t find it. Which is a shame because, believe it or not, it was hilarious. I laughed so hard at that video, and not because of the efforts of the couple involved.

The couple had decided to do what others were doing and record themselves having sex. They were going to post the video afterwards, since that was apparently the in thing to do back in the day. Instead, well, be best laid plans of mice and men can come a cropper thanks to a cat.

The video they ended up posting had me laughing before the main event. The wife said what they had planned to do, but that their cat, Max (may not be the right name, stupid lightning), had decided it was time for the world to meet him.

The camera then starts and before you can see the couple, you see Max. As in Max has his face right up in the camera lens. As it does the autofocus thing, you see him react in a variety of different ways. Fear. Curiosity. Determination. And more. He even bats at the camera a few different times. In the background, you can tell there’s movement and something going on, but the only thing you can see is Max’s face. For like ten minutes.

Not sure if the couple finished or realized Max was taking the spotlight. Seem to recall some laughter from them. Max got his fame. The couple became somewhat famous briefly as the owners of Max, rather than being just another couple lost in the flesh. God works in mysterious ways, sometimes perhaps even through Max.

Musical Interlude

Sorry for the odd posting schedule, but the body and I have been having a disagreement about eating that has been playing hob with me for a week now. Rather than gripe about that, I thought I would share a little bit of music. Three very different artists, all of whom I would love to see in concert. Which says a lot given my thoughts on crowds and loud these days.

First up, Lindsey Stirling. Beyond cute, with both inner and outer beauty shining through. If I were younger and Mormon…, as who wouldn’t be charmed by a true class act. I’ve been fascinated by violins since an early age and it was what I wanted to play in band, but economics (could borrow versus buy) said trumpet. Was given one very briefly for a play, and had it taken away as I was actually practicing with it and getting good while the character was supposed to play horribly. Right now, my looking at getting a guitar as opposed to a violin to see if I can learn to play after the lightning strike is mostly economics. Would love to see her in concert as you can tell she puts her all into each performance.

If you haven’t listened to her, start with Shadows and then explore. As for the class act designation, this is just one of the good things she’s done for others. Think it’s a separate clip, but note that when she plays with the young lady she clearly takes second fiddle (pun intended) so the girl can shine. That is true class.

Next up, and very different, is The Hu. Metal meets Mongolia in a way that takes tradition and turns it into something new and very enjoyable. Love their videos. Start with Yuve Yuve Yu and explore. Be sure to catch the mix of Black Thunder featuring two members of Bad Wolves. I keep seeing their music pop up in interesting places, and seem to recall that two members of the band invented a language for one of the Star Trek vehicles and may have even had a cameo. Oh, and if you just want audio and no video, check out their YT Channel as it has just audio of most of their work as well as videos. Would love to see them in concert, though I can’t afford the cheap seats much less the VIP package.

Finally, there is Loreena McKennitt. There’s a lot in her work to unpack, and I had the hair stand up on my arms listening to her sing a true and potent curse (May God reward you well for your treatment of me). Most of the world knows her for her rendition of Bonny Portmore (I think it the best), and if you get the chance to listen to All Soul’s Night on Halloween night sitting in front of a fire, do so. I used to have all her CDs, wish I still did. She ranges from truly ancient tunes to more modern pieces with ease, and my inner Celt is always happy with her takes on Celtic music. Explore and enjoy. She’s coming here to Indy in a couple of months and I’m looking at going if budget and surgery allows. Seriously will check the date of the show before setting the date for the new shoulder.

Something different for the morning, and we will see what the afternoon holds.

The Upcoming Election

This post is going to be a bit weird on some levels. I’ve been staying away from some of the politics as I think it far too early and far too many are looking to attack their own allies for any reason. I’ve seen some vicious races over the years, local and otherwise, but nothing quite like what is going on right now.

The catalyst for this post is this post by Sarah Hoyt. I want and need to acknowledge that Sarah has done a lot for me over the last few years, and I respect her and appreciate that which was done. She is a long-time and astute watcher of politics, who has approached it with the obsession of a sniper and an eye that comes from outside our system. That’s important as the people I’m finding who get what is going on come from outside our system. In fact, they are survivors of communism and socialism elsewhere, and include people like Sarah and a survivor of Mao.

Right now, my prime mode in regards the Republican race for president is mostly disgust. The number of people demanding I pick a side/candidate right now you traitorous piece of bleep is amazing. For the record, I do not owe ANY politician my loyalty, and that’s not how American politics is supposed to work. What is supposed to happen is that you, the politician, work to EARN my vote. If you demand it, my immediate and permanent response is going to be Fuck You. It’s like respect: if you demand it, you don’t deserve it. If your supporters and proxies demand it, and you don’t call them out, you don’t deserve it or my vote.

The fact is, I have enjoyed Trump, and his entry into politics and the swamp remind me more than a little bit of Rodney Dangerfield in CaddyShack. The reactions of the establishment in both cases are almost identical. I do give thanks for the work he and Mitch did in regards the Supreme Court and judges in general. He did a lot of good, but that doesn’t negate the fact he made a lot of bad choices as well. I voted for him twice, and if he is the Republican candidate I will vote for him again as anything is better than the Biden Regency and puppet show.

The fact is, if RDS is the candidate, I will vote for him. He’s got a very solid record as governor and while I get that a number don’t like or trust him, his accomplishments — including standing up to Trump on reopening Florida during COVID — speak for themselves. Not only competent himself, he’s made a lot of good personnel choices.

Outside of those two, I am not likely to vote for any of the other challengers. The problem with voting for the lesser of two evils, and it’s hard to find evil on the order of the Biden Crime Family, is that you are still voting for evil. Stop it.

Thing is, I think all the foaming-at-the-mouth hysteria and outrage is pointless. It’s pointless for two reasons. First, unless we secure the election it will be a crock. Show me any real effort by the RNC to secure the election and keep it honest. There’s not one and bleating about beating the margin of fraud is a crock. Second, is something I’ve asked in private and will say out loud now as well: Given all the Banana Republic things going on right now, do you really think they will let Trump (or RDS to be honest) live to take office? Whether it’s the Biden Regency or the DNC, they have pulled the trigger on things that can’t be walked back. What makes you think they will stop there in the quest for power?

No, I don’t think all is lost. It doesn’t matter if the Republic is dead, or just beaten comatose. There’s a thing called the Golden Hour, and recent vets get what I mean. It may well be hard and even ugly, but there is a chance to restore the Republic. It’s not gone yet. As Sarah has pointed out many times before, you can see the wheels starting to come off the progressive/marxist efforts. It is indeed one reason they are pushing so hard on so many fronts. It’s an effort to get things in place in the hopes they may be made permanent once they are in permanent power.

Fuck that. Fight back, now. Refuse to go along with the trans mafia, and all the ridiculous takes of the day. Refuse to bow down to the mob. Laugh at them. Fight any mandates and grabs for power, from digitized currency and debanking to efforts to force you to buy government approved appliances. Resist, fight, and mock them. Remember, they can’t stand being laughed at, so laugh and share the laughter. Mock them mercilessly.

Get active locally. Make sure who you vote for is indeed who they say they are, and start taking back local school boards and governments. Make sure the election monitors are fair, balanced, and aboveboard. If you don’t, the larger isn’t going to matter. There is still time, if you act now. Toss out Uniparty and get some real and good people in place.

Otherwise, the alternative is not good. It will make hard and ugly look like an ice cream social. No one sane wants that. Normal is gone and not coming back. The best we can hope for is to create a new normal, one better grounded in liberty and designed to withstand the storms of marxism.

Quick Reads

Well, they are quick to post but may not be so quick to read. 🙂 Sorry, been a busy morning that has seen me luck out on some groceries and get some good news in that regard. Finally back home, and wanted to share some goodies.

First, let me just say that abolishing SAC was possibly the most stupid military decision of the last fifty years. Heck, it may have been more stupid than Pickett’s charge to go back even further. When you read this, understand that the shade of General LeMay is probably trying to reanimate his corpse so he can get a baseball bat and go visit the parody of SAC that is Strategic Command. My blood pressure does not thank VodkaPundit at Instapundit for the Hat Tip, even if I do.

Then, go read David Strom’s excellent take on the political grifters and would-be thieves (if you won’t release funds, or try to give them to other charities, you are a thief) at GoFundMe. Pro Tip: Use GiveSendGo, good people who don’t play politics.

If you aren’t reading Victory Girls, you should be. Be sure to check out the approaching death of women’s sports. On a similar note, Jazz Shaw has a good post on how metoo abandoned women’s sports.

Finally, go read this on wind power by Beege Welborn at HotAir. Also, congratulate her on a year at the site.

Kadyrov, hmmmmmm

I’ve noted for a while now that I considered Kadyrov to be the kingmaker in ongoing Russian politics. Almost fanatically loyal to Vladimir, he has benefited from Vladmir’s largely successful efforts to integrate him into the current Kremlin political structure. That has required a level of ongoing effort by Vladimir, as not everyone is fond of Kadyrov’s past or the fact that even before the “coup” attempt he had 1,000 troops stationed next to the Kremlin for the use by and protection of Vladmir. During the “coup” he was bringing a lot more troops in to protect Moscow, the Kremlin, and Vladimir — and key Russian figures moved none.

If you are not familiar with the relationship between Russia and the Chechens, let’s just describe it as interesting. There’s long been a push for a ‘free Chechen republic’ and a lot of friction (massive understatement) and not just in the last few decades. Add to it that Vladimir cemented his hold on power by blaming the Chechens for the apartment building bombings (done by the FSB) and fomenting a war. Despite all this, things worked out for Kadyrov to become a Vladimir loyalist and a major power player in Kremlin politics. Or, possibly, former major power player.

Keep in mind that I don’t think Vladimir is anywhere near the top of his game anymore. In fact, I continue to see signs of personal and political decline. Pringle’s “coup” seems to be accelerating the latter. Back to this in a minute.

For all the publicity, Pringles was a vassal to a vassal of Vladimir within the power structure, for all intents and purposes. For all he had turned into a billionaire and small-time oligarch, he was not the key player he (and most corporate media) portrayed. For all that he was a staunch supporter of Vladimir, his first love was to himself. To build the empire he wanted, and to enjoy fully the lifestyle he very much enjoyed (the uniformed figure camping with the troops was mostly for show IMO), he advanced by parroting others. He echoed Vladimir extensively. It has also been noted that when Kadyrov spoke, Pringles echoed.

This was particularly true in regards criticism of the MoD and the general (cough) incompetence in regards the war. For all that both wanted to put the blame for issues squarely on the MoD, and not them or their troops, I think that Kadyrov, more than Pringles, was unhappy at excess casualties and other issues. Kadyrov was, however, far better at playing the game than Pringles, and despite some apparent attempts to get Pringles to calm down, Pringles launched his coup while trying to frame it as focused on the MoD and not Vladimir, and perhaps even within certain circles to present it as an effort to protect Vladimir from those who were effectively betraying him.

That didn’t fly, however, and both Vladimir and Kadyrov both condemned the “coup” and labeled Pringles as a backstabbing traitor. Interestingly enough, both have come out faintly praising/praising Pringles and noting that he let his ambitions get the better of him. The faint was, of course, Vladimir. The not-so-faint was Kadyrov. It is the degree of the difference of the praise that may be very interesting.

As an aside, yes, I do believe Pringles is dead. If it were some sort of Hollyweird “WitSec” effort, it would require not only extensive plastic surgery for Pringles and Utkin, but also personality transplants. I don’t think it psychologically possible for either one of them, even with new faces and identities, to simply go live a quiet life somewhere.

Over the years, I’ve met two people in witness protection who exemplify what I’m talking about. In the first case, when I first graduated I worked at a large bookstore, where we had an “interesting” older female customer. Always trying to pull fast ones, total PITA. Turns out, she was doing interesting things at her business, which led to law enforcement investigation(s), which led to the story coming out in the paper that she was in witness protection and they had to know she was scamming people even before they moved her again. The other was an accountant turned restaurant owner who opened an Italian place where I was living at the time. Actually, some of the best Italian I’ve had in the U.S. His fast one involved (possibly among other things) not paying the witholding for his employees. Again, as law enforcement moved in, he was moved out as he really was an accountant who had testified against the mob.

Is there anyone out there who believes Pringles and Utkin could just go off and not do something similar? Coming from the Russian government, the DNA evidence is automatically suspect, but it is out there. That said, lot of circumstantial evidence around that they are indeed dead. While it wasn’t Vladimir’s normal extra-gruesome death for those he feels have personally betrayed him, it was a stark reminder that even if you are surrounded by troops pretty much 24-7 as well as security he can and will get you. That’s a message on more than one level, and with more than one target.

Which ties in to previous discussions on smart moves and why I expected the hit to happen later. Russia was using Wagner to great advantage in Africa, even more so than in the Middle East. I honestly expected to see them use them even more before striking. I think two things may have changed that calculus. First is Niger, where Wagner had extensive involvement. Did Pringles push some things against orders to curry favor and build back power? Interesting questions. There are, of course, rumors of that and other things that would have not sat well with Vladimir or other power players. Second is that Vladimir took some serious internal political hits during and after the coup. He very much needs propping up/shows of strength right now.

The whole “push some things” holds true in many regards to Kadyrov as well. Kadyrov moved troops against the “coup” both in occupied Ukraine and in Moscow. Keep in mind this so-called coup had silent backers in Moscow and beyond, and not just in one or more major players. More than ever I think it had silent partners in several key players and a number of oligarchs outside the regular power structure.

Keep in mind it doesn’t take much of a mispeak to make Vladimir suspicious of you, especially these days. Now, look back over the last year of what Kadyrov has said and compare it to Pringles (including his echoes of Kadyrov). Think it would take much to make an increasingly paranoid Vladimir see Kadyrov as a threat?

There are a lot of people who are not Vladimir supporters who would have good reason to encourage it. Think about those silent backers of the so-called coup. Those who would like to see Vladimir out of power (and/or dead).

Which makes it more than interesting that opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov appears to be warning that going after and/or eliminating Kadyrov would be a mistake (possibly of epic proportions). Doing so in public and in private apparently. Veerrrrry Interesting.

Which brings up another point. I’ve taken some flack in the past for pointing out that we do have an obligation to Ukraine on defense (though we totally reneged on it in 2014), that leaving Russian aggression unchecked is a bad idea, but that our current efforts are neither smart nor sustainable and could lead to escalation. I also remain convinced that any unilateral enforced peace is a bad idea that will only lead to something magnitudes worse within a fairly short period of time. The only way to ensure long-term peace is for the current Russian Federation to come apart (and Russkiy Mir get a wooden stake through it) — which could lead again to very bad things happening if NATO/West/China/Other were to do it. Yes, as previously discussed China has great reason to make this happen. Ability is a different issue, but they do have the interest.

Things could still go sideways with ease if it happens from within. That said, the “coup” brought out a number of fault lines within the Federation. More than one region apparently told Vladimir that he was on his own. Others were a little more creative, but assistance was not guaranteed shall we say.

Now we have a situation where RUMINT says Vladimir is no longer able, or possibly willing, to continue to spend the effort to keep Kadyrov integrated into the power structure. A power structure in which a number of people don’t like or trust Kadyrov or the Chechens. Can Kadyrov hold his own?

What happens if Gudkov and others are right, and either Vladimir or elements of the Kremlin power structure move against Kadyrov? What will the Chechen republic do?

I don’t think it will go the way many appear to be thinking it will. First up, the power structure of the Kremlin was badly off on the whole invasion of Ukraine, as well as on the capabilities of the Russian military. Second, our own top political and military leadership has yet to be right on matters involving the Ukraine. In fact, they’ve been as badly wrong as the Kremlin leadership, if not more so.

Which is why I sincerely hope we don’t go fishing in those troubled waters, as our current leadership couldn’t successfully organize a drinking party in a distillery, and have to have sex lying on their back as they can only fuck up. While it appears China and Iran may both be trying to fish in these waters already, there are internal dynamics at play that I think may backfire on them as well. For now, I’m more inclined to sit back, wait, watch, and hope that despite the odds that our so-called experts will do the same. The issue of the Russian Federation breaking up may well take care of itself for us.