As everyone knows, we’ve had the horrible crash involving a Blackhawk helicopter with a CRJ jet at Reagan; the crash of an air ambulance in Philadelphia; and, people are freaking out over the engine fire that required an evacuation. There has also been a huge amount of disgusting, despicable, and vile attacks on the helicopter crew even before their bodies were cold. To say that I am repulsed by what is being said, and especially by WHO is saying some of it, is an understatement.
Let’s start with some basics that are getting missed by far too many online or in the media. First up, there’s this whole thing called an investigation to be done. We really don’t know anything at this point, as there are few established facts beyond the fact that the crashes/incidents occurred. There is a process for such things, and for aviation a very specialized process.
If you can, look for a copy of an older booklet “Air Accidents and the News Media” from the sadly defunct (the late Martin Caidin and I did what we could to try and save it) Aviation/Space Writer’s Association. While old, the basic process remains much the same even though technology has changed some of the elements of that process. If I ever get moved and can find my copy, will look into scanning it in as a PDF as it is not a large booklet.
The “we want scapegoats and answers now or we will make shit up” crowd are not going to like the process. It is time consuming, because it is thorough. Some things are already underway: data from ATC and other sources has been secured and will be available for examination and review; mechanics and others involved with the flights were or are sequestered and initial statements taken (note, logs and such were taken in the first part I mentioned); and, photos, video, and other efforts to record the scene have been made. All of this has been going on even as recovery of the bodies is underway, and I will note that the only reason anything should have been moved was to recover a body. See the booklet as this is an issue.
Now, comes the hard part. The wreckage, once documented, will be moved into a hangar somewhere to be re-assembled as best possible. Sometimes all you can do is lay it out in the rough shape of the aircraft. It will be examined in detail as some of the smallest things can tell a huge part of the story of what happened. There are metallurgical tests and more that will be done. While this is going on, the Flight Data Recorders will be examined, and based on that yet more controls and parts will be examined grossly and even on a microscopic level.
Even as the mechanical exams are going on, other investigators will be going over all available records of the crews involved. Training, evaluations, and more will be examined, even as autopsy results are gone over thoroughly. Investigators will also talk with friends, family, those they spoke to in the days prior to the event, and try to get an assessment of the psychological condition as well as the physical. There is no detail of their lives that will be off limits.
All of those investigations alone would be time consuming, but as they are investigating they often decide they need additional specialized testing, retesting, and follow-ups. They may need to bring in outside experts to examine things. It all takes time. Also, believe it or not, I’m not listing all the steps. There are others.
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) usually does a pretty good job on these. In fact, they’ve solved some crashes that were head scratchers to be polite. It just takes time.
Now then, for all I was on the board of AWA, I am a very low-hour pilot and claim nothing like the expertise of Buzz Patterson and others who have not hundreds but thousands of hours. That said, I’ve also worked a job where if a plane I had worked on had gone down, I would be one of those immediately sequestered. As such, I’ve paid attention to things and will share a few with you.
I want to link to a thread of posts I did on X while recovering from the food poisoning (ongoing). Start here. Within that thread there are links to others including a Blackhawk pilot who provides some excellent perspective. A short version is that the airspace around DC is the worst in the nation, and that’s more than just my opinion. It is congested, it is complex, and it is dynamic. For all that I have a soft spot for Reagan National, it should not still be there. All the runways are at best marginal (too short, 33 worst), and when you add in other corridors, noise abatement, etc. it should not be used as it is used.
ATC is shorthanded (thank you Obama and esp. Sec. Pete of the Biden Regency) because of diversity efforts that have left some 3,000 (4000?) plus qualified individuals denied employment because they were white. Also, the tech used by ATC truly is from the 80s (and late 70s) and has needed upgrading for quite some time. I would love to see Elon’s team take it on as I suspect that much better could be done with commercial off-the-shelf gear for a fraction of what the usual contractors want to charge.
Now then, if you didn’t read the thread and all the links, at least read this from someone who knows Blackhawks, training, and more. My experience with NVG is limited (glad to get some to test, cough) and did not involve flying. That said, read what he said. It’s true.
As a quick aside, reading a good bit on social media from people complaining about the VIP “air taxis” and such. They may/do have a point about people over-using/abusing it as a status thing. Yet, the training flight wasn’t for that, it was for continuity of government. Yes, the practice was for getting leadership out of DC in the event of emergency. It’s pretty constant as it is the true mission for most of the choppers. It really does need to happen.
I’m going to skip ahead a bit here, as to continue on right now leads to a topic where I really want to lose my cool. Which I really shouldn’t do, so…
Let’s skip to the air ambulance. From some of the video that has come out, it appears it suffered an event in flight before it came down. That event appears to be an explosive (or expansive) event. That does NOT mean it was a bomb or missile; but, something occurred in flight that emitted a flash just before the jet started down, and it appeared to be on fire on the way down. Based on the color of the flash, it was not a low-order event. However, the video does not give a lot of details.
That said, it is not confirmed and may or may not be verified. I will note that Robert Davi did several posts on X going into the complex fuel management system for that particular jet. Weight and balance are a thing, and if something happened to send fuel forward…
In both cases, smart and/or knowledgeable people are choosing not to speculate absent facts. The fact is, we DO NOT YET HAVE FACTS. That said, allow me to posit the following:
There is no one cause for the DC crash. In fact, I already see multiple issues that may have contributed to the crash. While, yes, I do have a theory, it does not rest on one person. Read the threads on X and you begin to get an idea as there were multiple issues.
Also, for all the baying about lack of experience, what the everliving do you you think training missions are for? In this case, I do not yet buy into lack of experience. I will, however, point out that when you are with an IP, you are a bit nervous and minding your Ps and Qs.
Further, when flying with an IP they are in command and responsible for the aircraft. They have to catch mistakes the person being instructed makes; they have to teach you to handle the unexpected; and, teach you to get the routine right. Among other things I’ve had an IP do to me was to effectively kill the engine a mile or more out from the airport and tell me to make it. I did. Could that IP have gotten the engine back on and gotten us down if I had bleeped up? You bet your bippy. In this case, in DC, the actions of the Blackhawk rest with the IP, no matter who was doing what at the time.
Which make the vile and loathsome attacks on Captain Rebecca Lobach even worse. That is not to say or claim that she didn’t make a mistake or mistakes. What I am saying is two fold: we DO NOT KNOW yet if she did or not; and, even if she did the ultimate legal responsibility rests with the IP. To trash her, her service, and her skill without any shred of proof simply to make money or political points is beyond despicable. It is bereft of honor, humanity, or integrity.
As for those making hay (and engagement bucks) off the fact that her social media accounts were scrubbed, along with those of some family members, allow me to ask you this: have you looked into the mirror or is the torch you carry blinding you? Given the braying mob, the trash already being talked, and the vicious smears I can’t blame them. You can excuse your behavior however you wish, but you can’t justify it.
Just a quick note for those who are trashing her because she is female. I’ve got a suggestion where you can stick your ignorant misogyny. The woman my Dad dated after mom died was the baby sister of his best friend growing up. Happens she was one of the first female pilots in the U.S. She was taken with flight, and the local IP/flight school cheerfully taught her for free with one caveat — she had to fly low and wave at all the guys below as they would then come for paid lessons as they couldn’t let a guurrrlll outdo them like that. It worked, and she ended up in some competitions and such in the 30s, properly chaperoned. She was good enough that when war came, Jacqueline Cochran personally asked for her help. If you don’t know who that is, you are not in aviation and should look it up.
Now, as for Philadelphia, again I have a theory but prefer to wait for some facts. The fact that this service lost a plane a year or more ago may or may not be germane to this crash. That may be a discussion for another day.
As for the engine fire, it’s not good but not that unusual either. Wish it were.
The fact is, the aviation safety system is in trouble. It has been since Obama first stuck an oar in and messed with hiring and more. The technology has needed updating for decades. Frankly, I’m optimistic right now given the new team in place and that they should have the backing to make substantive positive changes. Who knows, maybe some of the 200+ NTSB safety recommendations that have been ignored might get implemented.
For now, let’s sit back and wait for some solid data before flying off the handle. Let’s get some facts before defaming people. Let’s give the investigation time to actually do what it is supposed to do.
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“Even as the mechanical exams are going on, other investigators will be going over all available records of the crews involved. Training, evaluations, and more will be examined, even as autopsy results are gone over thoroughly.”
While I agree with most of your post, accident investigators need to be experts AND not chase rabbits. Long long ago in Germany, one of my tanks backed, at night, (without a ground guide) into a thick jumble of brush, and over a cliff into an unmarked quarry. The TC was crushed. Anyway, the accident Team was three REMF field grade officers from Division HQ. None of them either Armor or infantry, I doubt they’d seen a tank up close since ROTC.
They were looking for somebody to blame. Me, the TC? and they fixed on the driver. His drivers license noted he wore glasses. demanded to investigate whether he wore glasses and whether I had checked on this when he drove the tank.
I, and my CO tried to explain that,
1. it was night
2. he was backing up under verbal instructions from the TC
3. no rear view mirrors. 50 tons of steel blocking his view
4. the only thing in his view was the gas gauge, engine temp, oil gauge and speedometer (going in reverse, it read Zero)
fixated. It got into the report as a contributing factor…
Agree they don’t need to chase rabbits, and what happened with you does suck. So far, most aviation side it has not been an issue. Most of the investigators are pilots and experienced. It does indeed make a difference, as REMFs usually are out on the aviation side.
Many moons ago I was right-seat in a Cessna 152 approaching Ft Lauderdale Executive AP at night. Without ATC there is no way we could have even found the runway -much less landed safely. The amount of distracting lights, antennae, other aircraft, combined with some leftover T-storm chop made this part of the flight simply frightening. This is very pre-GPS and the Cessna’s instrumentation was at-best rudimentary. The pilot did not have an instrument rating and very few hours of night flying. Wish I had known that soo0ner! The calm, soothing ATC voice over the radio was the only link we had with reality. I don’t care his (yes it was a dude) race, color, creed, bedroom habits, religion, hair color, pronouns, piercing-count, or the message on his t-shirt – -he provided perfect instructions and brought two souls home safely. This is what should define hiring – merit and ability.
Yes. I never ever thought about who was behind the voice, just glad they were there. Always male back in the day, and some even had a sense of humor. It truly is about merit, and nothing else.
TWA 800?
Hi. Here’s some things you are missing:
1: The Biden military was awash with DEI
2: Being a woman / gay / black / in any other way “DEI supported” does NOT make you incompetent
3: DEI is about promoting the less qualified and incompetent, and then protecting them from the costs of their incompetence
4: Therefore, in any organization that has been running DEI for years, like the Biden military, a random individual who is DEI+ is more likely to be incompetent than someone who isn’t
5: Therefore, you have to be willfully blind to NOT notice someone’s DEI status when an f’up occurs. Is that “guilty until proven innocent”? Yes it is. DEI is racism, sexism, and religious bigotry. It is fundamentally evil. Those who go along with it are no longer presumptively innocent.
6: There are 67 dead people. I don’t give a sh!t about people’s feelings, I want to know what happened
7: Suppressing Captain Rebecca Lobach’s name until her social media could be wiped create the impression that there was something to hide. Like maybe she was a politically active leftist, and we SHOULD assume that her promotions were due to politics / DEI, not individual merit
8: If people didn’t want others assuming this, they shouldn’t have wiped her social media accounts
9: I am a trusting person. When people act like they have something to hide, I believe they DO have something to hide. See social media accounts
10: “The coverup is worse than the crime”. What the Army and her family did WRT her name and social media accounts makes me disinclined to believe ANYTHING positive they come out with abotu her.
That’s a shame if she actually did nothing wrong.
But 67 dead people are important, her family’s feelings are not within a rounding error of that importance. So what they did is inexcusable and unacceptable.
No, I didn’t miss that at all. I stand by what I said: let the investigation progress and the chips fall as they may. To do otherwise, as you have chosen to do, is morally, ethically, and professionally repugnant. As I also noted, you can excuse it however you want, but you can not justify it.
Also, are you seriously asking me to respect your service when you are prepared to shit on hers, and on Pete’s as you are not prepared to give him the time to show you what he can and will do? Two word response to that, second word is “you.”
I don’t sense you GAF about the 67 people who died. I think you are evil.
Well, that’s a unique take. God’s mercy upon you and may he illumine you now and in the days ahead.
Wow.
I would have given Pete the time he needed if the Army had NOT participated in the social media coverup. Or if, you know, he’d fired every single Biden Admin JCS member on his first day in office.
Since the first happened, and the second didn’t, no, I don’t give ANYONE involved any credit.
With all due respect, promoting her family’s feelings over the lives of the other 66 dead people is morally wretched.
When people die, the feelings of those involved are meaningless. No, I don’t trust them to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Either they care about getting all the facts, and getting them out to us in a manner a rational person would find believable, or else they’re not trustworthy.
It’s difficult NOT to make Captain in the Army, Air Force, or Marine Corps (the corresponding rank is Lieutenant in the Navy and Coast Guard). So the fact that she was one of the 99ish percent who was promoted twice since commissioning is expected and there is a microscopic chance that her sex had anything to do with it. Her flying skills could, POSSIBLY, be sub-par; but that’s not likely, either. She already had a fair bit of time in the aircraft type and would have flown daylight profiles for a bit before attempting a night training mission. Laughing Wolf is completely correct; it’s an excellent time for those of us not involved in the investigation to STFU–we know nothing and contribute nothing by braying our ignorance like a bunch of donkeys.
As a retired pilot active in commercial aviation for decades, I have read literally thousands of preliminary and final reports from NTSB investigations. NTSB does good work, even to excel.
Yet that agency is not immune from political pull which can and has unduly influenced their investigations and reports. Not often, but once is too often in my book. I wish it were not so for I have grown to trust the NTSB perhaps more than any gov agency should be trusted.
It will be very interesting to read the report arising from the investigation. That interest not only for the who and what and how, but to see by how much the report is influenced by political pressure.
Have to agree. Let’s wait and see how they do on this one.
My very first helicopter assignment was with an Air Force DV UH-1N unit (now deactivated) that used to fly VIPs up to the Pentagon from the Norfolk/Newport News area. So I’ve flown that same route, both day and night. As a trained FSO (flight safety officer), I agree with the sentiment of “let’s wait for the 30 day report before making any declarations”.
However…
A few things have jumped out at me about this incident.
– Why was there a crew of only 3? Why didn’t they have two scanners in the back instead of just one? Right there off the bat, the crew was at a huge disadvantage. We never flew at night in UH-1Ns or MH-53J/Ms without scanners on both sides of the aircraft (and the even a tail scanner on the -53). And before anyone says “But the other DV helo unit at Andrews, the 1st Heli, does it that way too”, yes, and I think they’re wrong as well. I once saw an article where the 1st Heli bragged about being the only single-pilot NVG qualified unit in the DoD. There is a reason for that (ie. it’s a very unsafe way to operate).
– I’ve seen reports that this was an evaluation flight for the CPT, not an instructional/upgrade flight. As a former examiner on both US and Russian helos, there is a big difference between those two missions. If an evaluation, that means the CW2 is in “watch and see” mode, not “teaching new TTPs” mode. So that’s something that may be a factor, which I’m sure the safety board will address, if that’s the case.
– Finally, the altitude. We stayed at 100′ AGL or even lower when we went by Reagan International, that is hands-down the most hazard point in the entire D.C. airspace for helos. To be up at 300′ or even 350′ AGL near that airport is a sign (to me, at least) that something was going seriously wrong in that cockpit in terms of workload, situational awareness, crew coordination, etc… We’ll have to wait to see if they find the cockpit recorder and get anything useful off the ICS portion, but suffice to say, it looked pretty bad from the video recordings that were made public.
My initial take (to be modified if any new info comes to light): The Blackhawk crew fucked up. If you’re out at night on NVGs on a VFR clearance and you bust an altitude restriction like that, it’s 100% on you. Not ATC, not the Army or the FAA, it’s the fault of the crew of the helo (which means whoever was the Pilot in Command, which will change based on it being an evaluation or an instructional ride). The mishap investigation will try to describe the details of why they fucked up, but unless there is some big surprise waiting to be revealed (one of the pilots was experiencing a medical issue, for instance), it looks like your standard “lack of situational awareness and crew coordination leading to a deadly mid-air collision” report that I’ve read dozens of times in the past. Hopefully, enough of the report will be made public to tamp down on all the rumors and theories swirling around out there….
The altitude issue– is it routine to use altitude hold along those routes? A contributing factor to the Blackhawk being high could be scan deterioration due to over-reliance on the Rad alt/Bar alt hold. They crept up in altitude scanning outside, flying as if the altitude hold was on when it wasn’t so it dropped out of their scan.
I used to fly SH60Bs in the USN. I knew another pilot who skipped an SH60 off the water at night doing 80kts. Altitude hold kicked off, he and the student flying with him didn’t realize it. Only saved the aircraft due to noticing the searchlight reflecting off the water as they passed through ~30 ft. They both yanked collective up, hence the skip and not a crash.
As to experience. I got my first civilian rating in college flying out of Orange County. Got familiar with LA’s airspace, the VFR corridor (now the VFRSRA), the various other airports etc. Word from other pilots was — stay away from San Diego, the airspace is so complex- you’ll get a flight violation. In the Navy I was stationed in San Diego, the word there was– stay away from LA, the airspace is so complex – you’ll get a flight violation.
Any person with an FAA certification- PPSEL, Rotary — whatever, should be able to read a VFR chart and abide by it. So- the Capt’s hours aren’t really the issue. They had the certification and certainly had the skill to read a chart. So, as you said this gets into the why, which even a thorough investigation may not definitively answer, only find possible causes that are plausible.
I’ll be curious to see what the altitudes are when the flight recorders are examined. Of course, Mode C altitude returns are only to the nearest 100 feet, and they aren’t baro-corrected.
The instructor pilots in Reese wouldn’t allow you to schedule a cross-country to LA* because of the airspace. But it was because it was so easy for a student to miss a radio call or a point, and then be given “penalty vectors” by ATC (“Turn to heading 270 and call when minimum fuel.”) that any approach or pattern work at a base out there would be compromised. Unless you were a really good student.
As to hours: they do matter. The more experience, the better able you should be to process a lot of information quickly. And that’s where LA’s congestion and Washington’s crazy airspace poses the challenge.
(* I say LA, but it included the San Diego area, IIRC.)
It’s a bit of a sore point to me. We’d get hit in our instructor/course critiques from students at the FRS that we didn’t take them through the VFR Corridor over Lindbergh. Not in the curriculum. Why? Because we’re not teaching the basics, like reading a VFR chart, we’re getting them qualified in an operational aircraft.
Most of these folks took the military competency test to get their commercial rotary right after getting their wings at the end of helo training, prior to coming to the FRS. If a civilian getting quald flying out of Brown, Gillespie, or Montgomery can read a chart; then you better be able to if you hold a rating. It’s one of the responsibilities that go along with it.
Good comments and thank you for making them!
I think we know 90% of the causes for the Potomac crash right now: insanely bad airspace design. The area was designed to allow helicopters to fly within 200′ of commercial aircraft. That was inevitably going to cause a crash some day.
I would disagree, 90% of that accident was caused by a helicopter crew screwing up by the numbers. They could have hit a tower, wires, clipped a tree in an LZ or any other host of mishaps that happens to helicopter crews that have lost their SA (aka situational awareness). In this instance, it was much, much worse than the usual and it resulted in almost 70 dead. That airspace has been designed like that for over 35 years, maybe even longer, but this accident is the first of it’s kind for the D.C. airspace. What has changed in 35 years? I have my opinions, but I’ll leave them out of this discussion….
Thanks, Wolf, for the “slow your roll.” LOTS of the commentariat that loves to shout about this sort of thing couldn’t even tell you what makes an airplane fly, much less the sorts of procedures and materiel that help a pilot keep his aircraft safe and productive.
I like to preface any speculation I make with “based solely on the facts I’ve seen” and “this is probably only part of the picture, even if I’m right.”
The two primary factors that seem to be at issue are the helicopter being out of its corridor, altitude-wise, and that I don’t think ATC called out the landing aircraft as a direction/distance. And maybe both of those things were somehow approved/proper procedure in this instance. But I don’t see any positive ID of the incident aircraft by the helo crew over the radio. (Maybe people will claim you can, but I don’t think *I* could identify a CRJ at night, as apart from other aircraft.) And there was another aircraft in the vicinity in the one video I’ve seen.
One bit of speculation I’ve made was that there was a CRM issue in the helo. Perhaps the co-pilot (who, in a large aircraft, often handles the radios) thought the pilot did have the correct a/c in sight because he didn’t challenge the pilot to point it out or such. The idea it was either an instruction flight or an evaluation flight makes the CRM issue less feasible, but even more concerning – if that happened. CRM gets all screwed up by an instructor or evaluator sitting in a seat. (I hooked a night cross-country ride because I asked the instructor to take control of the aircraft because I was getting spatial disorientation. I thought it was the right thing to do and should have gotten me airmanship points. He disagreed. *shrug*)
I like to point out this quote from some really old guy whose name I don’t remember:
Flying is not inherently dangerous; but it is terribly unforgiving of even the smallest mistake.
I don’t remember who said it either, but they are right. Like your thoughts. I several mistakes on more than one party, based on the info we have now. Lots of things had to happen for this tragedy to occur, and I fear there is plenty of blame to go around. Your comments on the call-out and ID’ing the CRJ are spot on. I was trained to do a read back, as the call should have been on the lines of traffic at your X-o’clock at XXXX altitude and my response would be to say I had traffic in sight my XXX and XXX altitude. The lack of specification is one of the issues I see on this. Between you and others commenting, lots of good food for thought on several issues that went into this. Thanks to you and others for such good comments.
A question about the ATC. There are some preliminary reports that the flight controller was doing the work of two people at the time. I’m not sure if this is true or not, but wouldn’t there be a procedure for reducing workload if this happened. I cannot imagine that flight operations would continue at normal levels if there weren’t enough controllers.
I was wondering if that didn’t contribute to the apparent lack of an “aircraft at 110, 1 mile, descending for landing, from your left to your right” call.
The root cause of this terrible accident is HORRIBLE Airspace design, brought about because of, I assume, political pressures, to “save” time for politicians and their associates. Admittedly, an assumption.
HORRIBLE DESIGN because of unrealistic aircraft separation, both verticle and horizontal!
I know that there are many very experienced, high time airplane pilots who will NOT fly in that area because of the inherintly dangerous design of the airspace.
The airspace design created a situation where an accident was inevitable!
“Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect.” – Captain A. G. Lamplugh, early British aviator
Many thanks for your thoughts and insight on the post-accident review process. It is indeed a “process” and by its very nature it cannot be done and provide answers quickly. Even 30 days for a preliminary report is a very rapid turnaround.
A lot has been said about possible mistakes that were made, and just who made those mistakes. But we have to remember that EVERYONE makes mistakes. Fortunately, in most cases those mistakes are quickly identified and corrective action taken to mitigate possible consequences of those mistakes; as a result, we rarely hear of them nor of the corrective measures taken to fix it in the short term and to reduce its likelihood in the longer term.
It appears most likely in the case of Philadelphia is that there was a chain of relatively small mistakes (staffing of both ATC and aircrew? possible altimeter setting error? some cockpit distraction at a critical moment?) that were not identified and corrected. NTSB is highly likely to identify that chain of errors. The best that come of this is that systems will be upgraded to minimize the probability that anything like this can ever happen again.
in most cases those mistakes are quickly identified and corrective action taken
That’s called “breaking the chain.” And, yes, it happens all the time. We have a lot of procedures designed to break that chain. It’s one of the reasons NTSB publishes those reports – to help others see where they can break the chain the next time.
Thank you for a good comment and food for thought!